Chi Town Balla's College B-Ball Central

Daily Preview: November 22nd, 2010

2010-11-21T19:17:00.000-08:00

I didn't get to watch as many games this weekend as I would've liked, but I did catch up on the important matchups on Tuesday, as well as the Coaches v. Cancer games and the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Here's some impressions on the teams I saw this week (not in any particular order):

Miami: When I saw this team against Memphis, I thought they were raw, unpolished, and somewhat limited offensively, but were definitely athletic and could be a solid team in the ACC. Then they lost to Rutgers. Anyway... Durand Scott is a talented offensive player, able to create his own shot and get to the line. Outside of him, there isn't a lot to offer offensively. Malcolm Grant has struggled shooting this year. Reggie Johnson has had a few solid games inside but nothing special. Otherwise, guys are either inconsistent or non-existent on offense. They held Memphis to 33% shooting, but that was probably more Memphis' inconsistencies on offense more than anything. The ACC is wide open this year, but Miami still may not finish in the top half of the conference.

Memphis: The Tigers brought in a highly touted freshman class this year, and so far the results have been good, if unspectacular. Josh Pastner has carried over elements of the dribble drive offense installed by Calipari a few years ago, and he gives his players a lot of freedom offensively. That's probably not the best thing for a team with so many young players playing key roles, but they've functioned fairly well offensively. They put up a lot of low percentage threes against Miami, but the ball movement was good and they got enough good looks to win. Wesley Witherspoon and Joe Jackson have been the most consistent offensive threats so far. Antonio Barton looked good on the break against Miami. Defensively, Memphis is active on the perimeter and forced Miami and LSU into low shooting percentages. This is a team that could mature into a top 10 team by the end of the year.

Kansas State: Last year's Elite 8 team relied on Pullen and Clemente, an athletic, physical frontline, and great defense to win games. They have all of that again, except Clemente is gone. That leaves Pullen at the point. I'm not sure that's the best decision in the world, as Pullen is more of a scorer than anything, but he creates offense for everyone else enough that it might work out. In the game against VT, Pullen was in foul trouble, so K-State had to go inside for much of their offense. Jamar Samuels had some nice moves inside and was able to get to the line consistently. The rest of the frontcourt is big and physical but they lack touch around the rim. K-State has struggled from the foul line as well. I think at some point this year, Pullen will be taken off the ball and Spradling will start at the point.

Virginia Tech: Expectations are high in Blacksburg this year, as VT returns their top 11 scorers from last year. Of course, this is a core that hasn't made the tournament the past 3 years, so sometimes returning all those players doesn't necessarily add up to significantly more success. The Hokies had a tremendous opportunity to make some national noise when they visited K-State on Tuesday, and they hung with the Wildcats for much of the game but were simply worn down by foul trouble in the frontcourt and physical play by K-State. Malcolm Delaney is their best player. He's not overly quick, but he is shifty and can get into the lane. He can also hit the outside shot. However, he's not a great ballhandler and not really a PG. VT's offense mainly consisted of him working to get into the lane and create offense for others. Dorenzo Hudson hit some outside shots, but otherwise VT needs to get scoring from somewhere else. They will win plenty of ACC games with just their defense and Delaney and Hudson scoring, but to get to the next level, their offense needs to get more dynamic.

Ohio State: Probably the best team I've seen so far this year. The big question for the Buckeyes this year was who would replace Turner's production. Ohio State hasn't seemed to have lost a step offensively. Sullinger adds a new dimension to the team. He's tall, big, and polished in the post. He opens up the perimeter for the rest of the team. That's a dangerous sign for opponents, because there's a lot of firepower on this Buckeyes squad. They have four guys that can all put up 25-30 points on any given night. They can score in both the halfcourt and in transition; that kind of versatility is rare in college basketball. They aren't particularly aggressive defensively, but they can be good when they want to be and they usually just run opponents off the floor anyway. They have two big weaknesses: lack of depth and lack of size. This is a team that is deserving of their top 5 ranking.

Florida: This is going to be an intriguing team. They return all 5 starters from last year's tournament team. Individually, these guys are pretty good. Vernon Macklin was a beast inside against Ohio State. Alex Tyus has been talked about in NBA camps. Chandler Parsons is a 4 with the skill set of a guard. Irving Walker and Kenny Boynton are streaky but can score in bunches at times. But for whatever reason, this team has had problems putting it all together over the past few years. They hung with and were probably better than Ohio State for the first half and parts of the 2nd, but couldn't put together an entire 40 minutes and fell apart once Ohio State started to apply some defensive pressure. They are still one of the two best teams in the SEC, but are they top 10 material? That still remains to be seen.

Butler: Well, losing Hayward made a big difference. They have no one offensively outside of Shelden Mack and Matt Howard. And when I mean no one, I mean not even a guy who can work off of that. They struggled to handle the UL pressure and did not shoot well from the field. Howard was battling foul trouble all night, which didn't help. They looked significantly better against Ball State, though. They are probably the favorites to win the Horizon League again this year, but this is not the Butler team we saw last year.

Louisville: One of the surprising teams of the week. They're long and athletic but very raw. They create a lot of their points off turnovers, and frustrated Butler into rushed, poor shots and turnovers all night long on Tuesday. They currently have 5 guys averaging double figures in points, so there's not one dominant scorer on the team. This could create problems when they face teams that can handle their pressure. Can they score consistently enough in the halfcourt to win that type of a game?

Illinois: The Illini were highly praised heading into the season, identified by many as a darkhorse in the Big Ten. The early verdict? Eh... probably not in the top tier of the conference, at least, not now. Sophs D. J. Richardson and Brandon Paul have improved offensively. The Mikes (Davis and Tisdale) form a good frontcourt, if not terribly physical. They're not a particularly aggressive defensive team, but they're not bad.

Texas: Raw, young team that likes to push the tempo, like against Illinois. Hamilton appeared to take the lead offensively, although he disappeared in the 2nd half against Pitt. Tristan Thompson is a handful in the paint. Cory Joseph was solid defensively but really a non-factor offensively. They can get secondary scoring from guys like Gary Johnson and J'Covan Brown. Outside of Balbay, this team is nothing special defensively. They're probably not as good as K-State, Baylor, or KU, but could be right around Missouri's level. They won't have the stars they did last year, so they are more likely to stick together and not fall apart like last year. At least, I don't think so.

Pittsburgh: This is a team full of under-recruited players with a chip on their shoulder, so don't expect a lot of their games to be pretty. Gibbs had a good tournament; Wanamaker was so-so. They got good contributions from the starting frontline and good minutes off the bench from Travon Woodall. This is a team that will slow the tempo, play physical defense, and attempt to score just enough points to win. Sounds a lot like K-State, except they don't have anyone as dynamic as Pullen on the outside (but similar type frontline).

Maryland: Didn't see a lot of them this weekend, but it can be difficult to get a read on a team that lost to the #4 team in the land (Pitt) and to a team that shot 52% from three (Illinois). All 5 starters played 26 or more minutes in both CvC games, so there's not a lot of depth here. Jordan Williams was strong offensively. They got good offensive contributions from a variety of guys but at the end, just couldn't get enough stops to win games. They got heavily outrebounded against Pitt but held their own against a smaller frontline in Illinois.

Minnesota: Not overly talented offensively, but they have enough weapons to get the job done. Al Nolen runs the point well and can get to the bucket and the line. The strength is inside, where Ralph Sampson III, Colton Iverson, and Trevor Mbakwe (who emerged this weekend) can control the paint. Granted, they played two undersized teams in UNC and WVU, but they still played well. On the downside, they don't really have a 3 pt threat other than Hoffarber, and WVU's 1-3-1 zone gave them fits in the 2nd half. This is probably a tournament team, but they'll be in a loaded division so they may not have as good a record as they actually are.

West Virginia: Think last year's team, except even rougher around the edges. Casey Mitchell is the most improved player I've seen so far. Who knew this guy would take over the offensive reins from DeSean Butler as definably as he has? Excellent shooter, created his own shot at times. Unfortunately, nobody else has emerged as a scoring threat. Kevin Jones doesn't look as comfortable without Butler and Ebanks drawing attention away from him. They held their own inside but are still undersized, as Iverson and Mbakwe for Minnesota showed. Otherwise, this is an experienced, versatile, if somewhat under talented team. Oh, and they still can't shoot free throws.

Vanderbilt: The Commodores played teams with two distinct styles this weekend. The first game was against a physical WVU team, and they struggled from the field. Against a quicker, more aggressive, but thinner frontline in UNC, Vandy succeeded. Jeffery Taylor and Festus Ezeli were much more effective inside and the team shot better overall, especially from 3 in the first half when they had the inside-outside game going very well. This team probably isn't as good as UF or UK but will be in that 2nd tier level in the SEC and should compete for a tournament spot.

North Carolina: Easily the disappointment of the week. North Carolina looks like a team that doesn't really have a style. They're not fast enough to run the break exceedingly well, but they have major problems executing in the halfcourt. Harrison Barnes, and Zeller, to a lesser extent, are the only ones that can really create their own shot on the offensive end. Everyone else looks lost for the most part. They didn't shoot well either against Minn or Vandy and they had a ton of turnovers against Vandy. The frontline lacks depth, and neither Drew nor Marshall look particularly comfortable at the point. What's more, I thought Barnes would step up and be an offensive leader, but he appears way too passive at this stage in his career to put a team on his back. Not a lot of good signs from UNC this week. The upside? Nobody else (other than Duke) in the ACC has looked particularly impressive, so conference wins will be up for grabs.

And now for Monday's games... Feast Week starts with quarterfinal action from the Maui Invitational and semifinals of the CBE Classic. We'll begin with a top 25 matchup from Kansas City:

Game of the Night

Kansas St. v. Gonzaga (Kansas St., CBE Classic semis)

I talked about K-State earlier in this blog post. I'm not really sure what to think of this Wildcats team right now. They're 3-0, with a good win over VT, but they did struggle against Presbyterian and are playing against a Bulldogs team that is probably the best offense they have faced to date this year. Gonzaga has had their own issues, falling at home to San Diego St. (although admittedly, SDSU will be one of the best teams in a good MWC this year). Neither team has really played to expectations so far this year. The key for the Zags will be for someone other than Gray to step up on offense. K-State wore down VT with size and physical defense, and the same will happen to Gonzaga unless Sacre or Elias Harris play a bigger role offensively. On the other end, Gonzaga will likely play a 2-3 zone, and that seemed to handle K-State's bigs pretty well when VT used it. Will that be enough to keep K-State out of the paint?

Other games:

CBE Classic Semis: Duke v. Marquette - The #1 team in the land cannot look past this game. Marquette doesn't have the talent they had a couple of years ago, but they'll be well coached and can pull off an upset if the Blue Devils aren't ready for it.

Maui Invitational Quarters: Wichita St. v. UConn could be a very entertaining game. Otherwise, unless one of the underdogs plays well, we could have three relatively uneventful other quarterfinal matchups.

Daily Preview: November 18th, 2010

2010-11-17T17:24:00.000-08:00

I DVR'ed a lot of Tuesday's games since I didn't get a chance to see much of them. I'll blog about Tuesday's games in much more detail when I watch them this weekend. It's always tough to tell in these early games just how good these teams are, since we don't have much of a barometer to measure them by. It will likely take a month or so (or longer) to really get a feel for many of these teams, and like I mentioned on Sunday night, there's a big difference between the way college basketball teams play in November and the way they play in March. This is especially true in today's college basketball when there is so much turnover in programs and so many new pieces entering each year. With that said, here's Thursday's top games, and it consists of one tournament: The 2K Sports Coaches v. Cancer semifinals.

Game of the Night:

Illinois v. Texas (Coaches v. Cancer semis)

The Illini have been a trendy underdog to pick in the Big Ten this year. Almost all the key pieces return, including Big 10 POY candidate Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and a couple of talented sophs in D. J. Richardson and Brandon Paul. Add in another good recruiting class and there's reason to get excited for basketball again in Champaign. Texas, meanwhile, seems to be one of those programs that recruits well but can't seem to get the chemistry or continuity to breed any sort of long-term success. Three NBA draft picks (Avery Bradley, Damion James, Dexter Pittman) left the program after last year, leaving the team in the hands of a group of talented, yet inexperienced freshman and sophomores and a bunch of role players. From the bit of Texas that I saw, they are definitely talented but still very raw on the offensive end. It will be interesting to see how the Longhorns perform against a team that matches up better with them athletically.

Other games:

Pitt v. Maryland (CvC semis): Both teams had early season scares. Pitt will be the favorite in this game, but do they have anyone to match up Jordan Williams in the post?

Puerto Rico Tip-Off 1st Round: Hofstra v. UNC, Davidson v. West Virginia, Nebraska v. Vanderbilt, W. Kentucky v. Minnesota

There should be some good semifinal matchups, but the first rounders appear to have 4 heavy favorites. Doesn't mean there can't be some good games, though.

Daily Preview: November 16th, 2010

2010-11-14T14:58:00.000-08:00

The first daily preview of the college basketball season features ESPN's 24 hour marathon of college basketball, starting at midnight on Tuesday and continuing until midnight on Wednesday. Obviously, not every game can be a premier matchup, but the majority of the games feature major college programs and a few match up a couple of ranked teams. In addition, the NIT Preseason Tip-Off begins tonight, with the first two rounds taking place from Monday through Wednesday night and the finals on Wednesday and Friday night of next week.

Similar to last year, I'll list a Game of the Night and then a couple of other games I'm looking forward to.

Tuesday, Nov. 16th, 2010

Game of the Night: Virginia Tech Hokies @ Kansas St. Wildcats

There is a top 10 matchup on the slate for Friday, But I personally think this is the more intriguing matchup. Surprised to see VT playing a ranked team out of conference? Same here. Seth Greenberg's Hokies finally figured out it might be a good idea to schedule some challenging OOC games since 8-8 in the ACC with a cupcake non-conference isn't good enough to go dancing. Thing is, the Hokies should be good enough to make it this year regardless of schedule. They return their top 11 scorers, including ACC POY contender Malcolm Delaney. If Tech can find a consistent third scorer to supplement Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson, this Hokies team is very capable of knocking off a highly ranked Kansas St. team.

The Wildcats certainly lived up to expectations last year, reaching the Elite Eight and falling to eventual runners up Butler. Despite losing Denis Clemente and Dominique Sutton, the Wildcats should be better than last year, as they return Jacob Pullen, Curtis Kelly, Jamar Samuels, and a host of sophomores and freshman who should make great strides this year. Kansas St. should be tough defensively again and have enough offensive weapons to make a long run into the tournament. The big question... how will Pullen fare running the point? Will others be able to provide consistent scoring? If they can get consistent scoring from sources and not rely on Pullen to create the entire offense, this could be a NC contender.

Other Games:

Ohio St. Buckeyes @ Florida Gators

Two preseason top 10 teams that both return large portions of last year's squads. Florida returns all five starters, and Ohio State returns all but Evan Turner and brings in an excellent recruiting class to supplement. Both teams have questions, though. Florida relies too much on the three, especially from star guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. Can they find Alex Tyus consistent looks inside? Ohio State struggled without Turner in the lineup last year. Will someone step up and take over as the go-to guy offensively? There's reason to believe true frosh Jared Sullinger could be that man.

San Diego St @ Gonzaga: This is the best Zags team in recent memory, but the Aztecs return four double-digit scorers from last year's NCAA Tournament team. Definitely a trap game for the Zags.

Butler @ Louisville: Good road test for the Bulldogs. The Cardinals have a lot of holes but will pressure and attack defensively.

South Carolina @ Michigan St.: Not the most difficult of matchups for the Spartans, but should be fun to watch anyway.

2010-11 College Basketball: No Expectations

2010-11-14T14:57:00.001-08:00

In preparation for this college basketball season, I planned it all out. I was going to do full fledged conference previews, with analysis for each team. I was going to include sections on preseason games to watch for, rank the conferences, teams, create a pre-season bubble watch and bracket. I was going all out this year.

Then life happened. I am not prepared for this season.

But in realizing this, I think this is a better mindset to enter the season with than I have in previous years. We tend to over-analyze everything in sports nowadays. Every win and loss is magnified to the point where we lose perspective. We immediately assume one win or loss means the difference between a championship and last place. We forget that teams change over the course of the season. Some teams mature and grow; others fall apart. Some teams are figured out and begin to stumble as a result; others catch fire at opportune times and ride it through the tournament. The way a team looks in mid-November is usually different from the way a team looks in March.

That last sentence was never more true than last year. Duke and Butler certainly were not the two best teams in the country last fall. But they both ended up in the championship game because they came together at just the right time (and had a few breaks go their way). That's how most seasons end up. Rarely is there a year where a great team or teams run wire-to-wire and win it all, especially now with the abundance of quality basketball programs and TV coverage. The talent is much more spread out and as a result, there is significantly more parity. That makes it difficult to predict who will be the best team in November, much less come March.

As a result, I will not be making preseason predictions this year. No conference rankings. No brackets. No Final Four or National Champion predictions. I'm going to go into this season with an open mind. I'm going to watch as many games as I can, starting with this week and the college basketball marathon coming up on Tuesday. I'll hype up games, post impressions, discuss teams I like and teams I don't like, do everything I used to. Only this time, there will be no expectations.

Regional Final picks: East Region

2010-03-22T15:57:00.001-07:00

After all the craziness these past two rounds have brought us, there is one thing I can say for certain:

This is Kentucky's tournament to lose.

Coming from a guy who has been somewhat down on UK all year, I'm telling you. Kentucky is the best, most talented team left in this tournament, and with Onuaku out, it really isn't all that close. They have four guys on their team that can all go off for 25+ points in a game. Nobody else has more than three (and that team is Duke, who only really has three scorers). They have more size and are quicker than anyone else left. They're deep, talented, and they have a coach on the sideline who knows how to win (or at least get guys who can win to play together).

What does any of this mean? Absolutely nothing.

This tournament has been one of the craziest in recent memory. What was easily the worst group of 2, 3, and 4 seeds in this past decade has been ravaged, leaving multiple cinderellas and several double digit seeds left standing. If there's a year where being the favorite doesn't count for anything, it's 2009-2010. With that said, here are my picks for the East region.

Game 1 (7:27 PM, CBS): 2 WVU vs. 11 Washington

UW has had an interesting road to this position. Easily one of the biggest underachievers during the regular season, the Huskies have come back in the spring with a vengeance, running through the Pac-10 tournament and taking out two higher seeds in the tournament. This Husky backcourt is very dangerous, and Qunicy Pondexter has been outstanding all year long.

That being said...

Washington was matched up against two small teams who were primarily perimeter oriented. UW took advantage of superior speed and ran both teams into the ground. It won't be so easy with West Virginia, who poses a different threat. West Virginia isn't as quick as Washington, either, but they will possess size advantages in a number of areas, particularly the wings, where guys like Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones, excellent rebounders during the season, will have height advantages. Washington will have to play a slower, more physical style of basketball and grind out a victory. West Virginia isn't a sexy basketball team, but they've won 29 games for a reason. If Washington can speed up the game, turn West Virginia over, and make it a shootout, they can get the upper hand. UW is not a team that's used to or has really been successful against this type of style, though. WVU wins it.

PICK: WVU 72, Washington 65

Game 2 (9:57 PM, CBS): 1 Kentucky vs. 12 Cornell

If there's one game where I have a serious rooting preference other than the Purdue game, it's this one. I'm just gonna get it out there: I despise Kentucky. I hate that slimeball of a coach John Calipari. I think DeMarcus Cousins is a thug and a lazy bum. I don't particularly care for their fans or the fact that they haven't paid their dues over time to get to where they are. I don't trust that this team hasn't already broken some NCAA sanctions. But they're darn good. And this causes problems.

I had UK going out in the Sweet 16. I really thought Wisconsin would give them a run for their money with their slow, physical play. But Wisconsin didn't make it through. Instead, it's an Ivy League school who had never won a game in the tournament before this season and is the first team since Penn in 1978 and 1979 to make the Sweet 16. And this team... they're darn good too. For those of you who care, Cornell averaged 1.65 points per possession against Wisconsin. That's really good. As in, really really really good. Against a pretty darn good defense in Wisconsin, no less. Wisconsin shot 49% from the field and lost by 18. Cornell dropped 87 on a team that usually gives up 60. This is no cinderella. This Big Red team is legit.

So that's why I'm doing this. Maybe it's because I really don't want to see UK win it all this year. Maybe it's because I didn't pick Cornell for two straight rounds and I'm trying to make up these past mistakes. Or maybe it's because Cornell has the size and the offense to keep up with Kentucky (not speed-wise, but in general). Maybe... just maybe... magic will happen once again.

And my bracket's screwed anyway, so what the heck.

PICK: Cornell 75, Kentucky 73

Second Round Recap

2010-03-21T19:29:00.000-07:00

Best Game: Gotta go with the Michigan State/Maryland finish. The game itself was led by Michigan State most of the way, even while losing both Chris Allen and Kalin Lucas to injuries. Durrell Summers was on fire, scoring 26 points on 6 of 8 shooting from three. Maryland began to chip away at the 5 point Michigan State lead with 8 minutes left, eventually taking the lead with 40 seconds left. A Draymond Green jumper made it 82-81 with 22 seconds to play. Greivis Vazquez did what he does best, driving to his right and hitting a teardrop layup with 6 seconds remaining. Green brought the ball up the court and threw it to Korie Lucious, almost hitting Delvon Roe in the head in the process. Lucious put up a three as time expired and connected, sending Sparty Nation into a frenzy. Easily the best finish of the tournament thus far.

Best Upset: Cornell looked awfully impressive in a win over Wisconsin, but I can't go against the Panthers of Northern Iowa taking out the overall #1 seed Kansas. It was one of those games where you just kept waiting for Kansas to snap out of it and take over, but it never happened. UNI led handedly most of the way until the late minutes when the KU pressure forced several UNI turnovers. Kansas worked the defecit to 1 with 40 seconds left and looked poised to take the game, until a quick UNI break of the press left Ali Farokhmanesh with the ball at the 3 point line. Despite there being around 25 seconds left on the shot clock and 35 on the game clock, Ali put up the three anyway... and hit it! After some free throws to seal the deal, the Panthers had shocked the college basketball world. Kansas, usually a strong outside shooting team, only made 6 threes in 23 attempts. Sherron Collins ended up 4 for 15 from the field and 0 of 6 from three. Farokhmanesh led UNI with 16 points on 4 of 10 from three. UNI takes on Michigan State in the Midwest Regional Semis.

Best Performance: Several guys share this award. In the first 2nd round game of the tournament, Omar Samhan manhandled the small Villanova frontcourt with 32 points and 7 rebounds, leading St. Mary's into the Sweet 16. Many thought it would be Jimmer Time in Oklahoma City for a 2nd straight game, but it was Jacob Time instead, as in Jacob Pullen. Pullen had 7 threes and was 11 for 11 at the line for 34 total points, as Kansas State won handedly over BYU 84-72. And Wesley Johnson scored from all over the floor and showcased his athleticism, scoring 31 and grabbing 14 boards as Syracuse steamrolled Gonzaga.

Upset that didn't happen: In a battle of mid-majors, Murray State was unable to keep Cinderella alive (at least for them), coming up two points short against Butler 54-52. The game was close the entire way, and a Gordon Hayward deflection prevented the Racers from getting a game tying or game winning shot off before time expired. The Bulldogs had good balance, with four guys in double figures doing most of the scoring work. Butler takes on Syracuse in the Sweet 16.

Game that got lost in the mix: Last year, Pitt took out Xavier in the Sweet 16. This year, Xavier returned the favor in the 2nd round, beating the Panthers 71-68. Jordan Crawford had 27 points to lead the Musketeers, who reached the Sweet 16 for the third straight time. Xavier, along with Michigan State, are the only two teams to reach this level for each of the past three seasons.

Picks: Coming this week!

Friday, March 19th: Night Game Recaps

2010-03-19T21:51:00.001-07:00

Best Game: In a slate of blowouts, two games stood out. Georgia Tech came back from a halftime defecit and shot 24 of 25 from the line to beat out Oklahoma State 64-59. James Anderson struggled mightily, going 3-11 from the floor and turning the ball over in the Cowboys' last possession. Meanwhile, Michigan State appeared to have their game comfortably in hand at halftime, but New Mexico State quickly erased the defecit, and the two teams traded buckets until the final possession. A key lane violation turned a two point defecit into three for New Mexico State, and two 3 point attempts fell short as time expired and the Spartans survived.

Best Performance: Jordan Williams was a monster on the glass for Maryland, claiming 17 rebounds and 21 points as the Terps took out a pesky Houston team, 89-77. Clinging to a two point lead at halftime, Maryland took over offensively early in the 2nd half and cruised to a relatively easy victory. Maryland had a 47-27 edge on the glass, aided by Williams' performance.

Upset that didn't happen: New Mexico State's loss was the closest thing to an upset in the nightcap of games. The other four games with 1 through 5 seeds all were double digit victories for the top seeds.

Game that got lost in the mix: Gonzaga handled a good Florida State team pretty easily, jumping out to a 35-19 lead at halftime. The Seminoles chipped away at the lead and brought it to within 5 with two and a half minutes left, but Gonzaga made 8 of their last ten free throws to seal the deal. The Zags made the most of their possessions, hitting as many shots from the field as Florida State but in 17 fewer attempts.

Early Sunday Picks:
Syracuse over Gonzaga (The Zags will not score as easily from the field as they did today... and Cuse will not struggle from the field as much as FSU did)
Ohio State over Georgia Tech (Beware though... the Yellow Jackets have the talent and the size to pull off the upset here)
Maryland over Michigan State (State will find offensive rebounds will not come as easily as they usually do with Williams patrolling the glass)
WVU over Missouri (Another possible upset... watch to see how a guard-deficient Mountaineer team handles the Mizzou press)
Wisconsin over Cornell (Sticking to my guns despite their respective performances today)
Pitt over Xavier
Purdue over Texas A&M (Glad my Boilers responded well today. Sunday will be a much more difficult task, however)
Duke over Cal (I should pick at least one upset today, but I'm not sure I really like any of the matchups. If I had to choose one, I'd say Mizzou over WVU, but even that is a stretch)

Friday, March 19th: Day Game Recaps

2010-03-19T16:57:00.000-07:00

Best Game: After all the great games yesterday, this afternoon was a bit of a letdown. Almost by default, the Wofford-Wisconsin game takes this one. The Badgers, up 8 at halftime, appeared to have the game under control. But Wofford made up the difference early in the 2nd half and the two teams traded buckets the rest of the way. In the end, Jon Leuer's 16 footer and subsequent forcing of a turnover gave Wisconsin the victory. This was a pretty ugly game overall, so it's kind of sad this was the best game of the day, but it was at least close.

Best Performance: I'm going to give this one to the entire Cornell team, who took the lead in the first three minutes of the first half and never looked back. The Big Red scored on Temple early and often, putting up 78 on the Owls and making Temple's vaunted half court defense look very, very pedestrian. Louis Dale, Ryan Wittman, and Jeff Foote did most of the scoring for Cornell. Meanwhile, Temple goes out early in what I think was a very disappointing showing for them, despite the overall talent of Cornell.

Upset that didn't happen: Siena played Purdue neck and neck for the 1st half, but the Boilers came out on fire to start the 2nd and held off a late Saint rally to win 72-64. You can look at this game from two angles. One, Purdue clearly dominated most of the 2nd half and essentially built too big of a lead for Siena to take back. However, the Saints stormed back late in the 2nd and actually were in a pretty good position to win that game, even though they never actually took the lead. They had Purdue on the ropes late, but clutch free throw shooting gave the Boilers the victory.

Games that got lost in the mix: Missouri gave Clemson all kinds of fits with their full court press, forcing 20 Clemson turnovers in their 86-78 win. Also, Xavier outlasted Minnesota in a slow, physical game, 65-54.

Exciting games left tonight: Right now Oklahoma State leads Georgia Tech by 5 at the half, but the rest of the games going on are double digit leads. On the late night cap, Louisville-Cal looks to be entertaining, and there's something intriguing about the Syracuse-Vermont matchup, even though it won't likely be very close.

Thursday, March 18th: Night Game Recaps

2010-03-18T21:41:00.000-07:00

Best Game: Can't go wrong with the Wake Forest-Texas game between two pretty evenly matched teams. For Texas, the final OT period seemed fitting for the way this season has gone. They jumped out to a 7 point lead in the first two minutes of the period, only to watch Wake chip away at it, until Ishamel Smith's jumper with a couple of seconds left seal the deal for the Demon Deacons. The Horns have a lot of growing to do this offseason. As for Wake, the dream remains alive, but they have an extremely tough test ahead of them in the 1 seed Kentucky, who drilled ETSU today to advance easily into the 2nd round.

Best Performance: Difficult to go against Armon Bassett's 32 points on 9-17 shooting, 5-10 from three, and 9-10 from the line. Ohio scored early and often against Georgetown, leading comfortably for the final 30 minutes of the game to beat the Hoyas by 14. Yes, I said led for three quarters of the game. The 14 seed. Over the 3 seed. I knew Georgetown was streaky, but not like this. Hats off to the Bobcats, though. The 9th seed in the MAC found their way into the tournament via the auto bid and have certainly made the most of it so far.

Upset that didn't happen: There were a couple tonight, as Montana gave New Mexico all it could handle before falling by 5 to the Lobos. But I'll go with San Diego State, who matched Tennessee bucket for bucket at the end but couldn't come up with that one last shot to knock out the Vols. Tennessee moves into the next round should thank their lucky stars that G-Town is gone (not that Ohio is going to be a cakewalk, but just saying).

Game that got lost in the mix: Those of you who stayed up to watch the late game almost got a thriller at the end. New Mexico seemed to have the game in hand about halfway through the 2nd half, but Montana wasn't having any of it. Montana was able to get it within one but was unable to overtake the Lobos, eventually losing 62-57. Brian Qvale had 26 for the Grizzlies. New Mexico advances to play Washington, who upsetted the 6 seed Marquette on Quincy Pondexter's leaner to give the Huskies an 80-78 victory.

Early Saturday picks:
St. Mary's over Villanova (same as before... nothing Nova did convinced me this game is gonna turn out any different than I expect)
Butler over Murray State (maybe it's time to stop hating on the Bulldogs and believe they're for real)
Tennessee over Ohio
Kansas over Northern Iowa (KU looked like they were sleepwalking through their game and still easily won... I know it was vs. the 16 seed, but UNI should still be scared)
Baylor over ODU (Although I'm thinking that if Tweety Carter has more games like this, Baylor isn't going anywhere in this tournament)
Washington over New Mexico (If I'm going to try and cash in on the hot hand, might as well do it here. If this is the Washington team we expected back in November, then they're sorely underseeded at 11. And that makes them VERY dangerous)
Kansas State over BYU (But I'm not ruling out a 45 point performance by Jimmer and a BYU win)
Kentucky over Wake Forest (I suspect this game isn't gonna even be close)

Games to watch tomorrow afternoon: Minnesota-Xavier, Cornell-Temple, Siena-Purdue, Missouri-Clemson, and Utah St.-Texas A&M all look to be good. And those are just the games we think will be close. It turned out the 2-15 and 3-14 matchups were some of the best games on Thursday. Who knows what March will bring?

Thursday, March 18th: Day Game Recaps

2010-03-18T14:58:00.001-07:00

Best Game: Wow, a lot of choices so far. I'm a sucker for buzzer beaters, so I have to go with Murray State-Vanderbilt. Close the entire way, capped off by a Danero Thomas 16 footer for the win. I'm somewhat surprised he got as good a look as he did, but he still had to make the shot. Well executed play by Murray State, and a heck of a win to advance to the 2nd round. I know a lot of people (myself included) saw this Murray State team as a potential upset pick in the first few rounds, and they came through.

Best Performance: Has to be Jimmer Fredette's 37 point gem in BYU's first 1st round win in 8 years, beating Florida 99-92 in double OT. The best part was, his teammate almost played better than he did. Michael Loyd Jr. came out of nowhere to score 26 on 7-10 shooting. Florida had chances at the end of regulation and the 1st OT and couldn't get off a good shot either time. Florida's inability to create consistent looks in the paint eventually became their downfall. In the future, I would suggest that Billy Donovan tell his kids not to put up 32 threes when you shoot 31% from three as a team. Meanwhile, BYU looked efficient and effective offensively and should give K-State (who looked impressive in their own right) one heck of a game.

Upset that didn't happen: The kids from RMU played their butts off and Nova did everything short of giving the game away at the end, including Scottie Reynolds going 2-15 from the floor, the entire team missing all kinds of layups and open jumpers, turning the ball over a couple of times in the last minutes and passing up a wide open layup to take a 5 point lead with 15 seconds to go. No offense to Nova, but it's a shame when a team plays that poorly and still ends up winning the game. Nova better be ready to play on Saturday, because Omar Samhan looked awfully good today and he will be ready to dominate the Wildcats inside. Honorable mention goes out to Sam Houston State, who hung with Baylor for 38 minutes before the Bears finally took over.

Game that got lost in the mix: Notre Dame-Old Dominion was incredibly slow and boring in the 2nd half, but it was exciting at the end, as Carleton Scott's 3 pointer rimmed in and out, giving Old Dominion a 51-50 win for the first upset of the day. ODU's height and 2-3 zone gave ND problems in the 2nd half, and the Irish struggled to hit open jumpers and only got 3 foul shot attempts on the day.

Most exciting game left tonight: I'm looking forward to Marquette-Washington, Tennessee-San Diego State, and Wake Forest-Texas.

NCAA Tournament Preview: Final Four

2010-03-17T20:05:00.003-07:00

So I have my picks, and I'm a bit scared. Normally I waver back and forth a lot, but I feel pretty good about this year's selections. Either this means my bracket will be amazing, or it will be terrible and I'll look like an idiot. In either case, you'll have to listen to me blab on, so deal with it. Here's my Final Four outlook:

Kansas vs. Kansas State: Interesting Final Four matchup, given these teams have already played three times. Rather than go through an analysis, I'm just going to say what happened in the previous three games:

Jan. 30th: Five guys score in double figures for KU and the Jayhawks shoot 50% in what was a closely contested battle with Sherron Collins hitting a lay-up with 10 seconds left to give KU a 81-79 victory.

March 3rd: No one other than Pullen and Clemente show up for K-State, and Kansas shoots 51% with 16 assists on 26 made baskets for a relatively easy 82-65 win.

Saturday: Kansas holds K-State to 34% shooting and they don't lead by less than 14 over the final 13 minutes to win 72-64 and take the Big 12 tournament.

Most times, people say the reason it's difficult to sweep a team is because they've seen you so many times (doesn't that work the other way) and the other team is more motivated to win than you. But if you can't get motivated for a Final Four game, why are you there? And outside of the 1st game, Kansas really seems to know how to shut down K-State. I have no reason to pick against the Jayhawks.

Score: Kansas 80, Kansas State 71

West Virginia vs. Baylor: What an odd matchup. Let's look at each team's weaknesses. The main things I saw about West Virginia is they don't have a solid PG and they're undersized at the 5. Baylor can exploit both matchups. However, I like West Virginia here. Here's why:

1. Rebounding. West Virginia is an excellent offensive rebounding team. Baylor, for it's size, gives up a fair amount of 2nd chance boards. Not a good sign.

2. Turnovers. Baylor has been turnover-prone at times this season, meaning more possessions for West Virginia.

3. Foul shooting. Not really bad, just lack of it. Many of Baylor's top scorers are not guys that get to the line consistently, and that adds an element of inconsistency for an offensive. Baylor has been excellent offensively all year long, but against a tough, physical defense, you don't want to be shooting perimeter jumpers all night long.

Also, Desean Butler. Had to get that in here somewhere.

Score: West Virginia 65, Baylor 61

FINALS: Kansas vs. West Virginia

This is a pretty easy pick for me. Not saying West Virginia can't hang with Kansas. However, KU just does too many things too well. They're so versatile offensively... they can play fast or slow, they can score inside or outside, they can get to the foul line, they hit the offensive glass pretty well... it's such a difficult team to slow down. Plus, West Virginia will likely have to be on their game offensively for 40 minutes... not one of their strong suits. I predict that Kansas will take out West Virginia (or whoever else is in that spot, for that matter) and will be your 2009-2010 NCAA Champs.

Score: Kansas 78, West Virginia 64

NCAA Tournament Preview: South Regional

2010-03-17T20:05:00.001-07:00

I heard someone say Duke is the worst 1 seed ever. Not sure the South regional warrants that statement, but for a 1, Duke does have a very limited offense. They have three options: Singler, Scheyer, Nolan Smith. They provide almost 70% of Duke's offense. Now, all three are very talented, mind you, and Duke does a ton of other things well, but that's still a lot of offense resting on only a few guys. Like other 1's, there's nothing stopping Duke from going down early. Let's find out how it could happen.

Favorite: Duke. Let's not make this sound like Duke is terrible. They have two guys playing around All-American level, they pull down a ton of offensive boards, they almost always win the turnover battle, and they're a very, very good defensive team. This is why they won 29 games this year. They're not a pushover by any means.

Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier, Duke relies a ton on three guys to provide most of their offense. If one guy is off, that's pressure on the other two to succeed. If two of them are off... I don't know what they're going to do. Also, they're extremely thin in the backcourt and most of their big men are generally useless at things other than being tall (although I will admit... Zoubek has actually been playing fairly well recently)

Who they could lose to: The most likely culprits are Villanova and Baylor. Unfortunately, I don't see how an undersized Purdue team or an undersized Texas A&M team is going to beat the Blue Devils, and nobody else really inserts any fear into me.

Sleeper: Notre Dame. So how does this work again... Notre Dame goes from a one man, inefficient offense to an efficent, deep, talented halfcourt offense overnight? Okay... well anyway, ND is as hot as anyone right now, and they actually are giving Harangody some offensive support, which opens things up for the All-American inside. Now they just gotta play some defense and they could go deep in this tournament.

Who will win: Baylor. How? I'll save that for later...

Picks:
First Round
Duke over whoever
Louisville over Cal (tell me how Cal got into this place without actually beating anyone presently in this tournament other than Washington?)
Texas A&M over Utah State (Pretty sure the only three teams in D-I that are named the Aggies are in the tournament, and two are playing each other. Wierd)
Purdue over Siena (Gotta have some school pride... plus the Saints don't have the size to really hurt us)
Notre Dame over Old Dominion (It's too bad the Monarchs can't get a better matchup, because I'd like them as a sleeper otherwise)
Baylor over Sam Houston State
St. Mary's over Richmond (No reason other than I saw Omar Samhan play this week and he's a total badass)
Villanova over Robert Morris

Second Round
Duke over Louisville (Scheyer is a one-man press breaking machine)
Purdue over Texas A&M (Combination of reasons stated above and wishful thinking)
Baylor over Notre Dame (This could really go either way and completely screw up my bracket)
St. Mary's over Villanova (If I'm going to pick a 10 over a 2, this is it. The worst 2 seed in the tournament vs. a red-hot Gaels team oozing with confidence. Plus Nova has no answer for Samhan inside)

Regional Semis
Duke over Purdue (Hopefully it's not as ugly as the game at Mackey last year)
Baylor over St. Mary's (Size + efficiency on offense spells doom for St. Mary's)

Regional Finals
Baylor over Duke (If Baylor can get to this point, and that's definitely and if, I feel very confident in this pick. Baylor has flown COMPLETELY under the radar this year for no good reason. They have a potential lottery pick in Ekpe Udoh, they're big inside, LaceDarius Dunn has been outstanding this year... they can handle Duke's presence inside and will put the Blue Devil perimeter and post defense to the test. The variety of options on the offensive end and defensive presence at the basket will make the difference)

Pick: BAYLOR BEARS

NCAA Tournament Preview: East Regional

2010-03-17T20:04:00.001-07:00

The Kentucky regional. What fun. I really have no idea what's going to happen here. It initially seems like a straight-forward 1 vs. 2 matchup in the Elite Eight, but both teams have their flaws and several teams that can expose those flaws along the way. If one or the other goes down, then it's anyone's guess as to who will be in the regional final. That's what makes this year exciting though. Onward:

Favorite: Kentucky. I swear, this team won half their games this year by less than 10 points. That means one of two things: they're playing with fire and not really that good, or they're really good and just that much more talented than anyone else that they can win games at will down the stretch. I think it's a bit of both, actually.

Why they could lose: They have four guys that can all score 25 in any given night, yet they still struggle to score in a halfcourt set at times. How does that work? Also, they can't shoot threes at all, and they're all freshman. This means any one of the following teams could beat them: a slow team, a physical team, an experienced team, a team with size, and a team that plays a good zone. Problem: about half the teams in this bracket fit under that description. Not a good sign.

Who could beat them: Any of the following: Texas, Wake Forest, Temple, Cornell, Wisconsin, Marquette, New Mexico, Clemson, Missouri, West Virginia. I just named most of the bracket. Again, sometimes I don't understand how this team won this many games. I guess it's because they have the best PG (Wall) and most difficult one-on-one matchup (Cousins) in the nation. I hate you, Calipari.

Sleeper: Most everybody who wants to pick a sleeper from this region is picking Cornell. So I'm going to take the team playing Cornell in the first round: Temple. Unless you forgot, this team handled Villanova pretty easily. They're physical, they're tough defensively, and they limit 2nd chance points. That spells issues for Kentucky if you ask me. And West Virginia has been known to stall out in halfcourt sets as well. Make no mistake: the Owls have the tools to take this region.

Who will win: West Virginia. I actually would not take them in a head to head matchup vs. UK. Good thing they won't end up playing (see what I did there?). Anyway, with Desean Butler taking over this team and turning into Mr. Clutch, WVU appears to be hitting on all cylinders at the moment. Then again, this team was 143rd in effective FG% in the nation. So who knows

Picks:
First Round
UK over East Tennessee State (ETSU gave Pitt a game last year as a 16. Don't be surprised if this one is a classic Lee Corso "closer than the experts think")
Wake Forest over Texas (Is it sad that Texas was #1 in the country at one point and I didn't really even think about this pick? The answer is yes)
Temple over Cornell (I think people forgot that Cornell lost that game to Kansas)
Wisconsin over Wofford
Marquette over Washington (I really want to pick the red-hot Huskies, but Marquette has played better than their record suggests this year)
New Mexico over Montana
Clemson over Missouri (Only because I still don't trust Mizzou away from home)
West Virginia over Morgan State

Second Round
UK over Wake Forest (Maybe an upset?... no, not yet. Patience)
Wisconsin over Temple (Yes, I did just hype up Temple and then pick them to lose in the 2nd round. Gotta keep you on your toes)
New Mexico over Marquette
West Virginia over Clemson (although watching WVU try to handle a full court press for 40 minutes without a good PG will be entertaining)

Regional Semis
Wisconsin over UK (Several reasons. First off, Wisconsin will not be sped up. Ever. This means UK will have to win a halfcourt game. Secondly, Wisconsin has some good weapons in a halfcourt set: Trevon Hughes has turned into a beast this year, Jordan Taylor has been excellent, Leuer does his thing, and they have several good spot up shooters as well. Now, they currently don't have a way of dealing with Cousins, and if it does become a shootout... okay, okay, my logic falls apart here. Just deal with the pick. Plus maybe Cousins does something stupid and gets himself ejected)
West Virginia over New Mexico (I should pick the upset here... New Mexico has excellent guard play and offense, and they limit offensive rebounds which is WVU's forte... but WVU's too versatile and Butler's playing too well right now to lose)

Regional Finals
West Virginia over Wisconsin (Same sort of thing as before. Wisconsin can slow down and stall out UK, but West Virginia's more prepared for a halfcourt, physical game. Plus Desean Butler has been the man recently. Did I mention Desean Butler?)

Winner: WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS

NCAA Tournament Preview: West Regional

2010-03-15T17:58:00.001-07:00

On to the West regional, which has some very intriguing upset possibilities. I could easily see anyone from 4 on down losing in the first round, and after that point who really knows, especially if Onuaku's injury is somewhat serious. By the way, Syracuse went from my favorite a couple of weeks ago to a potential early exit in the tournament. It depends on matchups and health concerns. But we'll get to that in a minute.

Favorites: Syracuse. What a wild three weeks it's been. After a Saturday where not only KU and UK fall but the Orange pound Nova in a sold out Carrier Dome to jump to #1, Syracuse now finds itself on a two game losing streak and with a potentially serious injury to its starting center. No question the Cuse can ball, but that zone has looked particularly shaky these past two games, and there's a very fine line between stout and extremely flaky when it comes to a zone. Let's just say Syracuse hopes nobody catches fire from three early in this tournament.

Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier (and have said this entire year), Syracuse is vulnerable to small teams that can penetrate the zone and hit perimeter jumpers. For the Orange, the zone is simultaneously their best friend (lots of steals that turn into points) and their worst enemy. It also helps to have a point forward that can operate well in the high post and break the zone down from the inside out.

Who they could lose to: The two seed, Kansas State, particularly intrigues me, because they have both the guard play and the point forwards to break down the zone. Beyond that, Pitt has already beaten the Orange, but the rest of the field looks pretty thin. Unless you think Butler is gonna catch fire from the outside in their Sweet 16 matchup.

Sleeper: BYU. I've never particularly liked unathletic mid-major squads, but something about this Jimmer Fredette character intrigues me. Maybe it's just the name. But the guy's an insanely efficient and proficient scorer (much like Stephen Curry was) and he may be able to put his team on his back and roll off a few upsets. It's not like K-State and Pitt are immune to imploding, either.

Who will win: Kansas State. Is this a risky pick? Probably. But they've got the tools to win this thing. Like I said, I think they match up well vs. the Orange, and the bracket isn't particularly intimidating otherwise (although Pitt will put up a good fight in the regional semis).

PICKS:
1st Round
Syracuse over Vermont (No Vermont upset this time... sorry Catamounts)
Florida State over Gonzaga (Gotta stick with one of those under-the-radar ACC teams... as long as they figure out how to score consistently)
UTEP over Butler (I've been hating on Butler all year long. No reason to stop now)
Murray State over Vanderbilt (See what I mean? It's not like these are crazy picks either. They really could happen)
Minnesota over Xavier
Pitt over Oakland
BYU over Florida
Kansas State over North Texas

2nd Round
Syracuse over Florida State (I'll guess the Seminoles score somewhere between 25 and 27 points in this one. Okay, fine. I'll give them an even 30.)
UTEP over Murray State (I'm probably too excited about a couple of teams that really haven't beaten anyone. Well, you only live once. Go Miners!)
Pitt over Minnesota (Every time I look at the Panthers I think "Really? This team is that good?" But they actually have a lot of guys that can create their own shot for a team that's supposed to be "depleted" from last year. Can they handle size? We'll find out in the 2nd round no matter what because Xavier's also a big team)
Kansas State over BYU (This game will be something like 67-55, with Jimmer scoring 50 points)

Regional Semis
Syracuse over UTEP (Pretty straightforward matchup for the Orange)
Kansas State over Pitt (This will be an entertaining game to watch. Look for K-State's forwards to make the difference here, as they have all year long)

Regional Finals
Kansas State over Syracuse (I've mentioned this before, but Kansas State has two guards that can score in bunches, they get to the line, and they have a surprisingly athletic front line that crashes the offensive boards like mad men. This is NOT a good matchup for Syracuse. I'm taking the Wildcats if they can get this far)

Winner: KANSAS STATE WILDCATS

NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Regional

2010-03-14T19:15:00.000-07:00

The Tournament is finally here! That means some analysis from you know who. Over the next few days I'll preview each region with favorites, potential sleepers, and who'll be there at the end. We'll start out with the bracket containing the #1 overall team in the tournament, the Kansas Jayhawks in the Midwest Regional.

Favorites: Kansas, obviously. They're talented outside (Collins, Henry) and inside (Marcus Morris, Aldrich), they can play a variety of styles, and they're excellent on both ends of the ball. Definitely the favorite in this region.

Why they could lose: It will probably take some level of implosion for Kansas to lose early, but don't think it can't happen. There have been times KU has struggled offensively this year (Memphis, Cornell, Tennessee, Oklahoma State) and when that happens, Sherron Collins sometimes tries to do everything and problems occur. It's not a trend for KU to struggle offensively, but it can happen.

Who they could lose to: I don't see KU losing before the Elite Eight (Maryland's too small, Michigan State's not good enough) but at that point there are a whole host of teams that could give KU problems, including Ohio State, Georgetown, Tennessee, and even Oklahoma State or Georgia Tech. The bottom half of the Midwest is probably the strongest 8 team section in the tournament.

Sleeper: Georgia Tech. I know they have turnover problems, but when you have not one but two post players that can create their own shot in Lawal and Favors, you're a dangerous team. Especially when the teams you're trying to upset (Oklahoma State, Ohio State) lack size.

Who will win: Kansas. They're too good to not pick. But don't be surprised if red-hot teams like Georgetown or Ohio State end up taking them down. Especially keep an eye on Ohio State... anytime you have the best player in college basketball, you're a threat to win the game.

PICKS:
1st Round
Kansas over Lehigh
UNLV over Northern Iowa (I'll take UNI over any Valley team... otherwise, they're not dynamic enough for my liking)
Michigan State over New Mexico State
Maryland over Houston
Tennessee over San Diego State (The Vols are one of those teams that could lose in the first round or take the entire region)
Georgetown over Ohio (A couple of weeks ago I would've picked against G-Town in the first round against almost anyone. Then Chris Wright decided he was gonna be a beast)
Georgia Tech over Oklahoma State (Tough to pick against he best 2 guard in the land, but I believe in the Yellow Jackets that much)
Ohio State over UC Santa Barbera

2nd Round
Kansas over UNLV
Maryland over Michigan State (I remember seeing a blog post about three weeks ago where some guy compared Michigan State's resume to Maryland's and asked why Michigan State was a top 15 team and Maryland wasn't ranked. He was exactly right)
Georgetown over Tennessee (Hopefully the Hoyas don't go all last year on me like they have at times this season)
Ohio State over Georgia Tech (Sooo tempting to pick the upset... but the Buckeyes have been playing too well right now. Watch out though if GT attacks the small OSU frontline and gets a thin Buckeye team into foul trouble early)

Regional Semis
Kansas over Maryland (The Terps have no one to deal with Marcus Morris, much less Aldrich. Vazquez will do his thing, but Jayhawks are just too deep and talented)
Ohio State over Georgetown (The Buckeyes will sit back in that zone, deny passes to Monroe and force Wright and Freeman to beat them from the outside. Meanwhile, Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country at turning defense into offense, bad news for a team that has been turnover prone at many points this year)

Regional Finals
Kansas over Ohio State (Similar reasons... too much size, too much depth for OSU to handle; however, Turner is the wild card. He can drop 40 on anyone in this tournament and win the game for his team. Stay tuned)

Winner: KANSAS JAYHAWKS

The Big List - March 3rd, 2010

2010-03-03T09:07:00.000-08:00

Updated to include Monday's and Tuesday's Games. Power 16 remains unchanged, except Georgetown drops and Maryland replaces them (partially because I think they're taking down Duke tonight). The Bubble list is still very, very fluid and will change a lot tonight as several bubble teams play one another, like UConn and ND.

Power 16:

1. Cuse
2. Kansas
3. UK
4. Duke
5. K-State
6. WVU
7. Purdue
8. Ohio St
9. Nova
10. UNM
11. Temple
12. Tennessee
13. BYU
14. Mich St
15. Butler
16. Maryland

Locks:
G-Town, Gonzaga, Vandy, Wisky, N Iowa, Mizzou, Baylor, A&M, Texas, Okie St, Xavier, UTEP, Pitt

Bubble List:
Richmond
UNLV
Clemson
FSU
Cornell
Marquette
Wake
Louisville
GT
Uconn
ND
Cal
Illinois
Florida
ODU
UAB
SDSU
St. Mary's
Miss St
USF
Cincy
URI
Dayton
Ole Miss
Seton Hall
Memphis
Charlotte
Minnesota

"Soft Bubble" Projected Spots 16
"Hard Bubble" Projected Spots 10

The Big List - March 1st, 2010

2010-02-28T18:22:00.001-08:00

March is here! That means March Madness, the NCAA Tournament, will shortly be upon us. Conference tournaments for smaller conferences will be starting up soon, with power conferences still having one week of games on their schedule before conference tournaments. Lots of jockeying for conference and NCAA tournament position is about to take place over the next week. In response to that, I introduce The Big List, or my version of a bubble watch/bracketology.

My Reasoning:

Most places that do a bracket make assumptions about which teams will get auto bids and which won't. Most mention their last four in, last four out, and next four out, which is fine, but it's still difficult to get a feel for where teams stand in relation to one another since it's not easy to tell how hard of a bubble they have projected (by hardness of a bubble, I mean how many auto bids are up for grabs. Let me explain. Several mid-major schools will get bids to the tournament whether or not they win their conference tournament. This means if they don't win their conference tournament, some other team will get the auto-bid and they will "steal" an at-large. A soft bubble assumes all these teams get auto bids and therefore, the maximum number of at-large bids will be available. Sort of). So I am instead including a list, beginning with my "Power 16", or top 16 ranked teams, the rest of the locks, and the bubble pecking order as I see it. I will at the end give a summary of how many bids are available in the event of both a soft and hard bubble so you get an idea of where the cut-off line may fall. Maybe I should just give an example.

BIG LIST: March 1st

Power 16:

1. Syracuse

2. Kansas

3. Kentucky

4. Duke

5. Kansas State

6. West Virginia

7. Purdue

8. Ohio State

9. Villanova

10. New Mexico

11. Temple

12. Georgetown

13. Tennessee

14. BYU

15. Michigan State

16. Butler

Other Locks (in no particular order):

Maryland

Pitt

Missouri

Baylor

Texas A&M

Texas

Oklahoma State

Wisconsin

Vanderbilt

Xavier

Gonzaga

UTEP

Northern Iowa

Bubble Order:

Richmond

UNLV
Clemson

Florida State

Cornell

Louisville

Marquette

Georgia Tech

Wake Forest

Illinois

Florida

UConn

Notre Dame

Cal

Old Dominion

UAB

San Diego State

Cincinnati

St. Mary's

Mississippi State

South Florida

Ole Miss

Seton Hall

Dayton

Memphis

Charlotte

Rhode Island

At-Large Bids available = 34

Locks = 29

Conferences Spanned = 11

Conferences with more than 2 locks = 5

Projected "Soft Bubble" spots = 16

Projected "Hard Bubble" spots = 10

Here's how this works. The "Soft Bubble" estimate says how many spots are available from the bubble group if every auto bid from the conferences spanned in the locks section comes from the locks section. In other words, if every Gonzaga, Butler, etc. wins their conference tournament. The "Hard Bubble" assumes the conference tournaments from any conference with 2 or less locks will come from outside the locks groups. Obviously, these are two extreme scenarios, but the idea is to say that there are, in my eyes, anywhere from 10 to 16 at-large spots available, taking out locks.

You will notice there are teams from additional conferences in the bubble section. These teams are there for now but will be removed if and when they win their conference tournament. For example, Cornell is in the bubble mix but has a 2 game lead in the Ivy League with 2 games to go, so if they win either on Friday @ Brown or Saturday @ Yale, they clinch the Ivy League and its auto-bid, so they will be removed and placed in the locks group. Until then, these teams in my opinion should be considered in the bubble mix. Also, keep in mind this is if the season ended today. This is important because, obviously, if Old Dominion doesn't win the Colonial tourney, that will likely take them down a notch no matter who they lose to. It's my take on a bubble watch, and I feel it's an interesting and new way to look at things.

Hummel's Injury

2010-02-25T13:00:00.000-08:00

So I rarely post specifically on a Purdue topic, but this one affects college b-ball on a national scene as well so it's worth a look. If you didn't know, Robbie Hummel went down in the first half of the Purdue-Minnesota game on Wednesday, and it was discovered today that he has a torn ACL and is done for the year. Obviously, this is a tremendous blow to a team which I felt was peaking at the right time and ready to make some real noise in the NCAA Tournament and possibly in Indianapolis in April. So what has changed? What can Purdue replace in terms of Hummel's production and leadership on the court, and what will they miss the most?

What Hummel brought to this team:

Anyone from Purdue will tell you Hummel is pretty much the heart and soul of this team. There are some votes for Kramer here and there, but in terms of raw numerical production, versatility, and leadership, you have to go with Hummel. At 6' 8", Hummel is very difficult to handle on the offensive end with his ability to pass and shoot the ball. He's probably our strongest outside shooter overall and Purdue has relied on him to produce a consistent, if not large, volume of points throughout the season. Defensively, Hummel generally matches up against the 4 and is a very good defender. In addition, he's Purdue's best rebounder on both ends of the floor. Add the leadership and production components, and Hummel is one of the three Purdue cornerstones.

What can Purdue replace:

I actually think Hummel's offensive production can be replaced (to an extent). Grant has shot much better over the past three games and will be needed to step into the third option offensively. Kelsey Barlow has shown flashes of explosiveness towards the basket and finishing skills at the rim, but that hasn't been as often during conference play. Kramer and John Hart will also be asked to help carry the scoring load. Overall, we move the ball well enough and guys are shooting well enough that we can probably scrounge together an extra 10-15 points a game offensively. Also, this team has enough veteran leadership and knows how to win basketball games when not at full strength. I would be much, much more worried about this team if this happened last year, but I think the Minnesota game showed me we can play through adversity.

What Purdue can't replace:

Where we will be most hurt is defensively and on the glass. We don't have a 4 anymore and will be forced to either play 4 guards or play Patrick Bade at the 4, and both will leave us with serious match-up problems. This means that a team like Michigan State (who we play on Sunday) will force us into a difficult matchup situation, since I don't particularly like the idea of having Kramer guard Delvon Roe or Raymar Morgan and I don't know if we can live with an offensive liability like Bade on the floor for an extended period of time. It's pick your poison at that point.

What should we expect from Purdue:

First off, we will at least be a top 4 seed. I still think we have a shot at being a 1 if we can win out (not likely, but still). If we only lose to Michigan State but make the Big Ten final, that should be good enough for a 2 seed. I don't see us falling more than a 3 unless we really look bad over the next three weeks. That said, we should be able to get past the first weekend. I don't think there's anyone that will be a 6 seed or below that will give us such a difficult matchup problem that we can't get past it. However, it becomes a crapshoot once you hit the Sweet 16. We're going to be undersized against almost any 1-5 seed in the tournament; however, that doesn't mean every team utilizes that height in a way that will seriously hurt us (like Butler). The teams that will really kill us are teams that have one really good post player (Georgetown, Texas if Pittman plays reasonable minutes) or a big frontline in general (like Baylor). Plus I still think a plethora of speed can hurt us badly as well. In other words, we're going to have severe obstacles against any Sweet 16 team we face.

Does that mean we aren't getting any farther than that round? No. There have been much, much worse teams that have made the Final Four. And this year is WIDE open outside of the top two teams. Also, we're still strong enough defensively that we can hang with anyone in the country given a good shooting day. But then again, I don't think we've shown enough consistency in terms of outside shooting that that's reasonable. Overall, I would really like getting to the Elite Eight, but I can't be upset with a loss in the Sweet 16 or even the 2nd Round in a certain matchup. It's frustrating that it has to be like this when really, nobody did anything wrong. But such is sports.

UPDATE: I have a new concept I'd like to try out this weekend. It's called "The Big List" and I want to unveil it this weekend. We'll see if I get around to it though

Weekend Preview - Jan. 30th/31st

2010-01-30T08:38:00.000-08:00

Good week in college basketball! Obviously, the big news was Kentucky's loss to South Carolina on Tuesday. This seems to affirm the notion that there really isn't a clear cut #1 in the nation right now, and everyone is susceptible at any given time. Here's my view on UK: when they want to be, they are the best team in the country. They have the best PG in the nation and consequently are the best fast-break team in the nation. They have a double-double monster in Cousins, a #3 scorer that could be a #1 scorer on most teams (Patterson), and a very capable supporting cast and bench. However, this team is very young, and that means they don't bring their "A" game every night. Slow them down, pack it in, and force them to be you with the outside shot. Kentucky's inconsistency will be their downfall. And now, for the weekend games.

Upset LOCK OF THE WEEK:

Kansas State over Kansas: There's not really a major upset out there that I feel too confident about, so I'm taking the easy road out here. The key will be Kansas State's forwards. The Wildcats are one of the best defensive teams in the country and they shut down a very good frontcourt against Texas, but Kansas' is a bit deeper, and Cole Aldrich will not get into foul trouble early. I'll guess Kansas State will get production from guys like Jamar Samuels and Curtis Kelly and will take down Kansas, leaving Syracuse as the #1 team on Monday.

Mid-Major Game of the week:

Harvard @ Cornell: I can't remember a bigger Ivy League game than this. Probably because Cornell has recieved actual bubble consideration... and it's really not that unwarranted considering the overall weak state of the bubble. They can avoid all bubble talk by taking care of Harvard, who actually had a higher RPI than Cornell for much of the season. This game has extra meaning for these schools since there's no postseason tournament in the Ivy League. Be interested.

Top 10 Games of the Week:

10. Maryland @ Clemson: The Terps are winning the ACC at 4-1, but their best win is Florida State at home. They get a shot at a resume defining win on Sunday.

9. Oklahoma St. @ Missouri: The middle of the Big 12 is getting a little murky, and the Tigers need to defend home court because of their struggles on the road. Important bubble game here.

8. Florida @ Tennessee: Two teams moving in different directions. Four straight wins for the Gators, and Tennessee coming off a couple of losses, including one @ Georgia.

7. Texas Tech @ Texas A&M: Pretty much the same story as #9.

6. Northwestern @ Michigan State: I almost picked this one for my upset LOCK OF THE WEEK, but I decided against it. Michigan State is due for a loss, but not here. Wait until February 9th.

5. Baylor @ Texas: The Longhorns got back on track Wednesday vs. Texas Tech, but they face a bigger and more dangerous team in Baylor. Dexter Pittman needs to find a way to stay on the court and neutralize the big front line of the Bears.

4. Louisville @ West Virginia: At the moment, WVU is completely shutting down Louisville. If this Mountaineers team can find consistent offensive production from someone other than Butler and Kevin Jones, they can make that jump to the next tier of teams.

3. Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: I made my statement about UK, so now it's time to talk about one of the hottest teams in the country. Vandy is legit. They're big, they have several guys who can score in the paint, and they get to the line often. However, they're not the quickest perimeter team, and they haven't proven to be a giant-killer yet. Yes, UK could come out flat, but something tells me that being at home after their 1st loss against a good team... Kentucky will be ready to play. And that will be the difference.

2. Duke @ Georgetown: The token good non-conference matchup of the week. The Hoyas have been better at not relying on Monroe to score for their offense recently, which is encouraging. The Duke frontline will likely slow down Monroe, but Monroe can hurt you in other ways besides scoring. If Freeman and Wright can hit outside jumpers, I believe G-Town will play their normal strong defense and will send Duke home with a loss.

1. Kansas @ Kansas State: I talked about this game a bit earlier. The scary part for teams that play Kansas is that Aldrich has been playing much, much better offensively over the past few games. When he is scoring, it becomes extremely difficult to adequately defend Kansas. When he's not, you can effectively focus your efforts on forcing Xavier Henry into making mistakes and force Sherron Collins to carry the team. Easier said than done? Yes it is. But if anyone's up to the task defensively, it's Kansas. Like I mentioned earlier, if the K-State forwards can help out Clemente and Pullen, they can win this game.

Bubble Watch - Jan 25th

2010-01-25T07:49:00.000-08:00

Sorry about not posting lately... I've been very busy, and assembling a bubble watch for the entire country is a good deal of work. But it's what I love to do, so I don't mind. Anyway, here's the landscape for the nation as of Monday, January 25th. Contenders are starting to emerge, both for the national title and for making the tournament. If you're not thinking about March, you better start to... it's coming up soon. If your team doesn't have that big win, they better get to work.

ACC

Well, the ACC is shaping up to be a competitive conference, if not a particularly strong one. No one team looks strong enough to continuously win on the road, meaning the conference winner could have 4-5 losses. Duke’s probably the strongest of the bunch, followed by a bunch of middling top 25 teams. And when I mean a bunch, I’m talking like a half dozen teams here. The ACC might get 7 teams in, but none of them may make it past the first weekend.

Locks: Duke

Should be in:

Georgia Tech: Too many good wins to say this team isn’t in, but they’re still inconsistent, so I’ll keep them out of a lock at this point.

Clemson: Could’ve really used a win over Duke at home. As it stands, the Tigers still aren’t in any real danger, despite their .500 record in the ACC. But they’d be advised to not lose to Boston College on Tuesday.

Bubble teams:

Wake Forest: If it wasn’t for the home loss to William & Mary (which isn’t really all that bad), Wake would probably be a stage up right now. They are playing well in conference, though, and are on the right track. They have wins @ Gonzaga and vs. Richmond and Xavier. Loss @ Miami is looking worse but still not terrible. Important road game @ Georgia Tech on Thursday.

UNC: The losses are really starting to pile up now, after falling at home to Wake Forest on Wednesday. Still have good wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech. Those wins are definitely better than almost any bubble team in the country, but there’s a really good chance they may have around 11 losses, and that would be just games I would have them as an underdog. That’s a lot of losses to overcome. They really need to win @ NC State on Tuesday.

Florida State: Got a good win at home vs. Georgia Tech on Sunday for the season sweep. Losses @ Florida and @ Ohio State with Evan Turner are nothing to be ashamed of, and good neutral court wins over Alabama and Marquette help as well. The Seminoles seem to have righted the ship after a rough patch in the ACC.

Virginia Tech: Just escaped at home vs. BC to avoid putting themselves in a serious bind. The Hokies will be a very interesting case. Home vs. Seton Hall and home vs. Miami are their best wins so far, which probably aren’t good enough to get them in the tournament, but it’s not like they’re that much further behind the rest of the conference. A couple of road games against fellow ACC bubblers before UNC comes to town on February 4^th.

Likely not in:

Miami: Lost to Boston College again and they are now 1-4 in conference. Excellent non-conference slate against a weak schedule capped by win over Minnesota, but at some point you gotta start winning conference games.

Maryland: Got a home wins vs. Florida State and NC State and are 3-1 in the ACC, which is solid so far. Indiana is their next best win though. All in all, 10+ wins are probably necessary in conference to get the Terps in.

North Carolina State: All in all, not really feeling the Wolfpack, as they can’t seem to beat middle of the pack ACC teams at home or on the road (although apparently they can beat Duke). I’ll keep an eye on them, but I’m not expecting a serious move towards a bid.

Virginia: No shame in losing @ Wake Forest, but that’s probably a game Virginia could’ve used considering their subpar non-conference showing. The margin of error is slim to none for the Cavaliers right now.

Big East

This is shaping up to be a very deep conference. Clear leaders are emerging (Villanova, Syracuse) but after that it’s becoming somewhat of a clouded mess. Can they get 10 in? It’s not unreasonable, although they’ll probably eat at least one of two of their own before conference play is up.

Locks: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, Pitt

Should be in: None

Bubble teams:

UConn: Big, big time win over Texas makes me feel much better about UConn’s tournament chances. It’s the defining win the Huskies have been looking for. Of course, there’s still the matter of the .500 conference record, losses that continue to pile up, and lack of depth to their resume, but for now all is well. Should win @ Providence on Wednesday and would do well to take the Marquette home game on Saturday.

Cincinnati: Lost road games to Seton Hall and St. John’s which isn’t really the mark of a tournament team. At least they got the home win vs. ND. Wins vs. Vanderbilt, and the UConn win helps, but they’re probably moving the wrong way right now. Righted the ship somewhat with a win over South Florida on Wednesday.

Notre Dame: Lost @ Cincinnati, but that’s not really the end of the world. West Virginia win still looms large. Still the ugly Loyola Marymount home loss on their schedule. @ Villanova awaits on Wednesday. Can they get to .500 in conference? It may be enough if they're able to.

Louisville: Lost @ Seton Hall on Thursday and still don’t have a marquee win to speak of (home vs. Cincinnati is the closest thing to that). They have wins against fellow bubblers Providence and St. John’s though. Cardinals didn’t play a difficult non-conference slate as it was, but they still lost to the only tough teams on their schedule.

Seton Hall: Alright, then. The Pirates reel off back-to-back good wins at home to make some noise in the conference. Looking ahead at their schedule, there’s a very real possibility they get 10-11 wins in conference without hitting a major upset. Will that be enough? They don’t have the non-conference slate (best win is Cornell) to back them up. Just keep winning, I guess.

Likely not in:

Marquette: Ugly road loss to DePaul and loss @ Syracuse leaves Marquette at 2-5 in conference play. With their schedule so far, they need all the gimmes they can get. Wins over Xavier and Georgetown are the positives. They are just 11-8, though, and eight losses at this point in the season leaves little to no room for error.

St. John's: Led early vs. Villanova but couldn’t hold it. Can they get in with a .500 record in conference? They do have wins at Temple and vs. Siena. It would be close, but I’m leaning towards no. And that’s if they get to .500, which would be tough for them.

South Florida: Just simply too many better teams in conference.

Big Ten

In Big Ten country, a clear elite group is also emerging. Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State have separated themselves from the pack.

Locks: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Should be in:

Ohio State: With Turner back, it’s only a matter of time before this team moves into lock status. Win over Wisconsin on Saturday showed that. Loss @ West Virginia was not a big deal (although it would’ve helped with seeding).

Bubble Teams:

Minnesota: It’s a shame they couldn’t pull it out vs. Michigan State, as that probably would’ve moved them up a level. At 3-4 in conference and with a loss @ Indiana, Minnesota is quietly slipping in the wrong direction. Still, they have the neutral court win over Butler and a win over Turner-less Ohio State, but losses can and have piled up quickly in conference. Must beat Northwestern at home on Tuesday.

Northwestern: Beat Illinois at home on Saturday but couldn’t get the road win @ Ohio State last Tuesday. I’m not entirely sure what to do with Northwestern at this point. They have wins vs. Purdue, Iowa State, and Notre Dame and no bad losses. However, they haven’t really passed the eye test from what I’ve seen so far. The jury is out on this one.

Likely not in:

Illinois: Three straight conference losses makes it eight total for the Illini, and they appear too young to put together any sort of consistent run. Also have three bad non-conference losses, which is a lot to overcome for any team.

Big 12

They rival the Big East at the top, with three legitimate top 10 teams, but outside of that the drop-off is fairly steep. I’ll keep Kansas State as a lock for now despite the home loss to Oklahoma State. I’d be surprised if they got less than 6 teams in. 7 might be a stretch though.

Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State

Should be in:

Texas A & M: I’m probably higher on the Aggies then most people, but all 5 losses are to very good opponents and they have a couple of good wins over Minnesota and Clemson at neutral sites. They still have Kansas and Texas at home, and if they can get one of those, they should be able to get to 10 wins in conference, which would be plenty to get in. Even if they don’t, they’re still probably good.

Bubble teams:

Baylor: No major wins, but a lot of good ones. Solid road wins over South Carolina and Arkansas, a neutral court win over Xavier, and a home win over Oklahoma State. Losses to Alabama (neutral) and @ Colorado aren’t all that good but manageable. A win at Kansas on Wednesday night would be huge, but they’ll settle for a split this week. They need all the conference wins they can get, but they could very well be the 4^th best team in this conference, which would likely mean 10 wins.

Missouri: Split back-to-back Saturdays against @ Oklahoma (L) and Nebraska (W). Won at home over Kansas State, but the win against Illinois is looking worse, though, and they have a not-so-pretty loss to Oral Roberts on there as well. Mizzou’s tournament chances will likely come down to their ability to win games on the road, as they are currently 1-3 in true road games.

Oklahoma State: The Kansas State road win defines what was turning into a very lackluster resume. Their next best win is home vs. Texas Tech, so the depth isn’t there, but it’s a start. Keep it going with a home win vs. Texas A & M on Wednesday and you’ll probably be in (for now.)

Likely not in:

Texas Tech: Rebounded by beating Oklahoma at home on Saturday, but that was the easy one. Washington win has plummeted in value, and that’s really all they have at this point (other than maybe UTEP at home). If they can take down Texas in Austin on Wednesday, I’ll reconsider.

Oklahoma: A couple of good wins over Oklahoma State and Missouri, but the Sooners will need more to counter-act so many losses. 11-8 is not going to get it done.

Iowa State: Whiffed on all four chances to get a solid non-conference win (Northwestern, Northern Iowa, Cal, Duke) and missed Kansas on Saturday, meaning their best win is probably @ Nebraska. Not a bad team, but definitely NIT-caliber right now.

Nebraska: Hanging on by a thread after starting 0-4 in conference. (@ Missouri)

Pac-10

This conference continues to amaze me. There’s a good chance that nobody is worthy of an at-large bid and so only the auto bid will get in. Think about it… Washington’s struggled in early conference play. Cal doesn’t have the wins. Arizona State doesn’t exactly have a stellar resume either. I don’t know if anyone’s going to have the wins to get in on their own.

Locks: None

Should be in: None

Bubble teams:

Cal: Beat both the Oregons and are now in sole possession of first place in the Pac-10. With Washington’s demise, this team is likely the Pac-10’s best shot at an at-large. Outside of a home loss to UCLA, every other loss is reasonable for a tournament team. Their biggest weakness remains the lack of quality wins, which they really won’t get much help with for the rest of the year. If they can separate themselves enough from the rest of the conference to get 14 wins or so, they will probably get the nod from the committee. But at this rate, 12-6 might win the conference, and then things will get ugly.

Arizona State: Just as I thought a semi-favorite was emerging in conference, they go out and lose to Arizona at home. They pass the sight test to an extent, as I thought Arizona State looked pretty good at MSG against Duke, and their non-conference slate was fairly good considering what they have to work with. Their overall body of work is a little less spectacular, although they do have a good home win vs. Washington. I really don’t think the resume would hold up to other bubble teams at this point, but the Pac-10 winner will have a somewhat strong case. I don’t know.

Washington: There’s a good amount of people keeping Washington out of the tournament altogether, and I agree 100%. Look at their resume. Does this look like a tournament team to you? It sure doesn’t to me. What a shame.

Likely not in:

Washington State: Still no major wins and currently at .500 in a weak conference. I’m thinking NIT unless something turns around quickly.

Not in: USC. This special section is to remind people that even though USC has played well recently, they have banned themselves due to the O. J. Mayo stuff. They won't play in the Pac-10 tournament either.

SEC

Kentucky and Vanderbilt continue to roll along. Tennessee remains a lock for now, but I would not recommend losing to teams like Georgia anymore. The SEC solidly has 5 teams in, and could get a sixth if Florida makes a run.

Locks: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Should be in:

Mississippi State: The loss @ Alabama is probably not enough to knock them back too far, but I get the feeling this Bulldogs team is underachieving. Oh well.

Mississippi: Not in any real danger at this point. Continue winning the gimmes and the Rebels will be safely in.

Bubble teams:

Likely not in:

Florida: The Michigan State and Florida State wins can only carry you so far. Florida’s clearly 4^th in the pecking order in the East and will need some wins against the top three to get in.

Atlantic 10:

Things behind Temple are starting to get somewhat muddled. Dayton and Rhode Island are moving in the wrong direction, while Xavier is holding steady. Can Charlotte make a run at a tournament spot? This conference could get anywhere from 2 to 5 teams in right now.

Locks: Temple

Should be in: None

Bubble teams:

Xavier: Man, don’t ever consider a team with three straight conference titles dead. They’re 5-1 with only a loss @ conference leading Temple. Good home win over Rhode Island on Saturday. The non-conference isn’t the best, with five losses and only a double OT win over Cincinnati to show for it. Their margin of error is slim, but they’re doing what’s necessary.

Dayton: Uh oh. The loss @ St. Joseph’s makes things interesting. Dayton hasn’t had a good win in about a month and a half and the St. Joseph’s loss gives the committee ammo to keep them out. A couple of good wins vs. Georgia Tech and Old Dominion. Dayton’s still probably in if the season ended today though.

Rhode Island: The Xavier win could’ve been huge for a team in need of some good wins. Record is still awesome, but most of those wins were against relative cupcakes. They go to Dayton on Tuesday, who is reeling. Perfect opportunity to get a quality win, on the road too.

Likely not in:

Charlotte: I’ll put them in there for now, as the Louisville win is looking better, but still not enough on the resume to make a serious case.

Mountain West

Another conference where parity may cost a team a bid, although in the MWC’s case BYU appears to be pulling away from the pack. Colorado State has started off strong, but they played some easy teams early. Outside of BYU, three teams appear to have significant cases to make the tournament. One of two will likely fall out along the way.

Locks: BYU

Should be in:

New Mexico: Their two losses in conference aren’t really that bad, and unlike the other bubble teams in the conference, they can afford a not-so-stellar conference record. BYU comes to town Wednesday for what should be an awesome game.

Bubble Teams:

UNLV: Would be in much better shape had they not lost at home to Utah. As it stands, They have wins vs. Louisville, @ New Mexico, vs. San Diego St., and a couple of assorted not as good wins. Probably in right now, but they don’t want to test the committee any more. That means no losing until February 6^th at home vs. BYU.

Likely not in:

San Diego State: Tough loss at Wyoming hurts a team that has really no margin of error. Won at home vs. New Mexico, which is nice, but they may be a victim of the parity of the conference.

Others:

The mid-major landscape has been a bit of a mixed bag at this point. They have benefitted greatly from the fallout of a power conference (the Pac-10) but all of those spots will likely be taken by the A-10 and MWC, meaning at-large bids will be at a premium again for smaller conferences. Several likely candidates have emerged but none are really pulling away from the pack.

Locks: Gonzaga, Butler

Should be in:

Northern Iowa: Lost at Wichita State, but that will happen in a tough conference and that’s only their 2^nd loss of the year. The MVC champ will get a bid, and that means UNI is in good shape.

Bubble Teams:

St. Mary's: Lost their best shot at home vs. Gonzaga, but did beat Portland. Decent wins over San Diego State and Oregon. It may come down to beating Gonzaga once in their three shots at them this season (should they meet in the WCC tournament).

Cornell: One of the most interesting cases we may see this season. My opinion on the Big Red: if you can’t beat Harvard in a best of three (split the regular season matchups, lose in a playoff to determine Ivy League winner), you shouldn’t be in. Plus if they don’t, they don’t have the wins to get in. Sorry. It would be fun to see them going up against some unfortunate 5 or 6 seed in the first round though.

Old Dominion: Tied with George Mason and Northeastern for the league lead, ODU has the big out of conference win vs. Georgetown but have 5 losses. They are the best team in the Colonial but they may not get an at-large if they don’t win the tournament, even if they win the conference.

UAB: One of four undefeated teams in conference. The Blazers have been the best team in the C-USA thus far, and have wins over Cincinnati and Butler. Losses to Kent St. and Virginia do hurt.

Memphis: Forgetting the name, the Tigers really have done little to suggest they're a tournament team. They do have some big games in conference, though, and are still a definite contender to win the C-USA.

In Contention:

None of these teams will be in at the moment, but they're some names to remember: William & Mary, VCU, Tulsa, UTEP, William & Mary, Tulsa, UTEP, Wichita State, Portland, Siena, Utah State, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Harvard.

Wednesday, Jan. 13th in College Basketball

2010-01-13T07:09:00.000-08:00

The reason why conference play is so valuable (and interesting) for a college basketball fan is because it blatantly shows a team's true weakness. Perhaps this is because teams lose consistently in conference play, and you really don't find out about a team's weakness until they do lose, but whatever the reason, conference play is the area where you start to find out how a team matches up against decent opponents and what their limitations are. For example, there were a number of losses by top 25 teams yesterday, and by analyzing those games we can discover not only why they lost the game but if that reason concurs with the team's previous results. Wow, that totally sounded like a scientific paper. Anyway, on to the analysis:

Purdue

Why they lost: Among several reasons, Evan Turner, lack of transition defense, lack of bench scoring, Evan Turner, lack of quickness on the perimeter, inability to create shots, and Evan Turner.

Is this a trend?: Sort of. Outside of Moore, Hummel, and Johnson, we don't have any consistent scoring. This isn't the end of the world... unless one or more of those guys decides to have an off day (like Johnson did). The number of teams that can shut down Johnson or decide to try this hard to shut down Johnson are few, so this isn't a huge problem. Also, not everyone has Evan Turner. The scarier problem is the general lack of athleticism and quickness... not an issue when you're playing shut-down defense and only need to score 65-70 points to win, but the defense hasn't been there recently.

Can this team compete for a Final Four spot?: Yes, although the margin for error is slimmer than most teams. Purdue has to execute on both sides of the ball for the better part of 40 minutes, while other teams around them can get by on size, athleticism, shooting, or a combination of those three.

Florida State

Why they lost: They couldn't stop Scott Wood (31 pts, 7-11 from three).

Is this a trend?: Not really. The Seminoles aren't bad at stopping the three, and few guys are going to get that hot consistently. The bigger problem for Florida State (which, oddly enough, didn't show up tonight) is that they can't put the ball in the bucket consistently, mainly due to turnovers.

Can this team compete for a Sweet 16 spot?: Eh... I love their size, and they're strong defensively, but they just don't have the weapons to compete against the top teams. Maybe with good matchups they can make it past the first weekend, but I doubt it.

Baylor

Why they lost: Too many turnovers, and shot half as many free throws as Colorado did.

Is this a trend?: Yes. Baylor hasn't really faced the types of teams that can really hurt you if you turn the ball over as much as they do, and they're a good defensive team, mainly due to their size.

Can they make the tournament?: I'm going to say yes, but it might be pretty close. At best, Baylor is probably the fifth best team in this conference and they may be a .500 team in conference, which is probably enough to get it done, but not much more than a 10 or 11 seed. I doubt they get any farther than that.

This is the kind of analysis we can do to see where teams should end up come tournament time. In the meanwhile, we have games to play... starting with a couple of very important ACC showdowns:

Game of the Night:

UNC @ Clemson: Important game for both teams. Clemson could use a solid win to remove the ugly performance at Duke from people's heads. UNC could use a very good win to remove the ugly performance at College of Charleston from their heads. I told myself a week ago that the ACC is so parity-filled that I am pretty much just going to pick the home team every time, but I have other reasons to pick Clemson. Namely, they'll turn over UNC and attempt to get easy buckets in transition. Typically, high pressure, high turnover teams like Clemson feed off of crowd energy, and I think Clemson will do that and pick up a solid conference win.

Pick: Clemson 79, UNC 73

Others:

Minnesota @ Michigan State: Sparty looks to defend home court tonight against a good opponent.

Pitt @ UConn: The Panthers have erased all memory of the Indiana loss and look to continue to roll over an overrated (in my opinion) Husky team.

Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Both teams need this... Northwestern, to stay in good shape to make the tournament, and Wisconsin, to show they're serious about contending for a Big Ten title.

Missouri @ Texas Tech: Important bubble battle in the Big 12.

Cincinnati @ St. John's: Ditto, for the Big East.

Miami @ Virginia Tech: Ditto, for the ACC.

San Diego State @ UNLV: Ditto, for the... oh, you get the idea.

Monday, Jan. 11th in College Basketball

2010-01-11T06:34:00.000-08:00

Great weekend in college basketball. Five top 10 teams, including two undefeateds, lost this weekend, meaning there could be some significant changes in the top 25. Or maybe not. I'll let you know whether these teams are still legitimate top 10 teams or not... starting with the soon to be former #1 team in the land.

Kansas: The biggest problem facing the Jayhawks over the past week has been the fact that they've had one reliable scorer, and that's Sherron Collins. Xavier Henry's shooting percentage and scoring is down and appears to be rushing shots. Cole Aldrich is not the offensive weapon he was last year, and neither is Tyshawn Taylor. When on, Kansas spreads the ball well and consistently gets good shots, and that hasn't happened of late. Is this a trend? Maybe. Kansas is still strong defensively and more athletic than almost anyone they play, so they can deal with offensive struggles for small stretches. If they want to compete for a title, though, someone other than Collins needs to make big shots down the stretch.

Verdict: Legit

Purdue: My Boilers gave up a 17-4 run to Wisconsin at the beginning of the 2nd half and never recovered. Wisconsin is a very good team, especially at the Kohl Center, so the loss itself doesn't give too much cause for concern. I don't feel like Purdue played poorly, either, so in one sense there aren't any new problems. The way to beat Purdue is probably the same way I always thought you beat Purdue: quickness on the perimeter. Trevon Hughes, Jason Bohannon (who can actually drive to the basket now!) and Jordan Taylor killed us off the dribble drive. Oh, and hopefully JaJuan won't go 1-7 from the line again. Our help defense is still the best in the Big Ten, though, and it will take an extremely good offensive effort for 40 minutes to beat us.

Verdict: Legit

Duke: Duke's strength is supposed to be in the post, where they have a lot of bodies to throw at people. The problem is, when they face teams with size, they don't seem to play well offensively. The same was true with UConn (although UConn is a pretty good defensive team). Duke shoots over 40% from three normally, but they couldn't create decent shots consistently against the Georgia Tech defense. Duke's lack of depth in the backcourt and skill in the frontcourt means that they're probably not that much better than the rest of their conference. They'll get their wins, but there are a number of ACC teams I'd probably pick to win at home vs. Duke. In my opinion, that's not the sign of a top 10 team.

Verdict: Not Legit

West Virginia: I was sold on this team earlier, but after their loss to Purdue and loss at Notre Dame, I'm not so sure. They're still pretty big, and strong defensively, but they really don't have a lot of speed in the backcourt and they don't get to the line very often, meaning the offense can stall for stretches. The fact that they shot 37 threes and only 4 free throws is not a good sign for the offense. Of course, it's also not safe to assume Da'Sean Butler is going to go 4-20 from the floor again like he did @ ND. Overall, West Virginia is very good, but probably not in the same class as Villanova and Syracuse. And maybe even Georgetown.

Verdict: Not Legit

North Carolina: They were top 10 at the beginning of the week but will not be this week after losing to College of Charleston.

Verdict: Not Legit

So where does that leave us for a top 10? I'd probably put these 10 teams there for now: Texas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Purdue, Villanova, Michigan State, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Tennessee.

Okay, on to Monday. Not a ton of good games on the schedule. As usual, a Big East matchup headlines the day:

Game of the Night:

Villanova @ Louisville: I've decided over the past few days I need to take a closer look at the Cardinals as a tournament team. Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa have taken on bigger roles in the offense and have thrived as a result. Defensively, they've been strong recently, although they have had their struggles at points this season. Their resume suggests to me they're right on the bubble. Which leads me into tonight's game... a win over a clear top 10 team would probably put the Cardinals on the right side of the bubble right now. Problem is, Louisville likes to speed up teams with pressure, and Nova's comfortable playing like that. Villanova gets the big road win tonight.

Pick: Villanova 87, Louisville 81

Others:

Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma: The Bedlam game holds important tournament implications for both teams. For the Cowboys, it's some much needed respect. They kicked the stuffing out of Texas Tech to start Big 12 play and look to pick up a good road conference win tonight. Oklahoma, meanwhile, lost badly at Baylor and really, really need some big wins.

10 Games to Watch: Jan. 9th

2010-01-09T07:29:00.000-08:00

Time to mix it up a bit. Rather than just list a bunch of games on Saturday, I'm going to proceed in a more organized fashion and list 10 games to pay attention and watch if possible. Oh, and one mid major special. Got it? Good. Let's begin:

Mid-Major Special:

UNLV @ New Mexico: Everyone's favorite mid-major surprise team, the Lobos, are an early victim of the Mountain West's depth (lost @ San Diego State) and could very easily be 0-2 after Saturday night when a good UNLV team comes into town. The Runnin' Rebels are looking for another good win to accompany their upset of Louisville.

10. Florida @ Vanderbilt: Two teams who will likely be fighting for one spot in the tournament come March, especially if Tennessee looks fine, as they did Wednesday against Charlotte.

9. Wake Forest @ Miami: Another good bubble game. Miami has a lot of wins but not a lot of quality ones, and Wake has played well since their loss @ Purdue.

8. Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State: I get this feeling Okie State is getting by due to a weak schedule and is about to plummet down the Big 12 ladder. Could this be the beginning of that fall? Or will I look like an idiot for saying that? Come on, people, I'm practically selling these games for you. Who needs NFL playoffs when you can see if Matt looks like an idiot? Okay, I'll stop talking.

7. Kansas State @ Missouri: Maybe I've been reading a little too much Ken Pomeroy lately (Mizzou is 9 in Pomeroy's ratings) but I think this Tigers team is going to give a lot of Big 12 powers problems over the next few months, beginning with K-State this weekend.

6. Marquette @ Villanova: How much you want to bet Marquette will be the most picked lower seed to advance in the first round of the NCAA Tournament? Either them or Cornell.

5. Ohio State @ Minnesota: Made infintely more interesting after the return of Evan Turner. Is he 100%? Can Ohio State beat Minny on the road with an 80% Turner? 90%? We'll see.

4. Mississippi State @ Mississippi: Two teams nobody is talking about but are pretty darn good. One is Baylor. Another is the Bulldogs of Miss St. Yes, I know they've had some bad losses this year. But they're strong defensively and have the best shotblocker in the country (Jarvis Varnado). Can they shut down the Rebels' high-powered offense?

3. Duke @ Georgia Tech: The vibe I get from GT this year: a young team that is on the verge of great things but their inexperience has hurt them at key times this year. Favors and Lawal have been outstanding this year, but this is a Duke team that is prepared to handle size in the paint and has been playing some good basketball recently. My opinion: if Mfon Udofia doesn't have a big game, Duke shuts down the GT offense.

2. UConn @ Georgetown: The Huskies have been somewhat suspect this season offensively, and for a good defensive team like G-Town, that doesn't bode well for UConn. The Hoyas can also match UConn's size inside and speed outside. Then again, I also feel like G-Town has all the talent in the world sometimes and they don't play at the level they're capable of. Still, I like the Hoyas in a home win.

1. Purdue @ Wisconsin: You didn't really think this game wasn't going to be #1, right? Wisconsin legitimately scares me. The Badgers will not be rushed, they will not turn the ball over, and they will find good shots. They've got two very good offensive players in Jon Leuer and Trevon Hughes and several other guys who can score in given situations. They are also strong defensively. As a Purdue fan, I have to accept two truths: one, we will very likely lose (and this is one of those spots it could happen), and two, if we are a top 5 team, we win this game. Obviously we are good enough, and we should, win. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if Wisconsin takes us down. Should be entertaining though... if you like scores of 54-53. Ah, Big Ten Basketball... where two teams are needed to break the century mark.

Bubble Watch: First Edition

2010-01-05T11:39:00.000-08:00

Welcome to the first bubble watch of the season! This is actually a combined bracketology/bubble watch section, with a heavy emphasis on the teams that are "on the bubble", or in danger of missing the tournament. Since there are still many games to be played, the bubble is quite soft, with lots of teams still having a viable shot at making it. What follows is a conference by conference preview of each team that still has a reasonable shot at being a tournament team, followed by their status (lock, likely in, on the bubble, likely not in, slim chance) along with an expected seed in the tournament. As mentioned earlier, many games are still to be played, so expect a lot of movement within the next few weeks. Let's get it started...

ACC

The ACC appears to be the same this year as it has been the previous few years: UNC and Duke, followed by a bunch of mid-level teams that are all fighting for a tournament spot. The conference is more compact this year than in previous years, though; UNC and Duke aren't quite as good. Clemson can move into that first tier with a win at Duke tonight, and Florida State has been solid, but it's a mixed bag for the rest of the conference. I probably should bump UNC out for their loss to College of Charleston, but whatever. They'll make it.

Locks: UNC (4), Duke (2)

Should be in:

Clemson (6): No real reason to keep Clemson out at this point, despite the poor effort at Duke on Sunday. They'll get another good shot vs. UNC next Wednesday. At home.

Florida State (5): Losses @ Florida and @ Ohio State with Evan Turner are nothing to be ashamed of, and good neutral court wins over Alabama and Marquette and @ Georgia Tech put them in good position to make the tournament. Some tricky mid-level conference games before they travel to Duke on the 27th.

Bubble teams:

Georgia Tech (7): Young team has been steady, if not spectacular. No marquee wins, but good wins over Siena, Charlotte, and USC and only two losses, both to tournament teams (Dayton, FSU). They'll have plenty of shots at good teams in ACC play. I think they're the 5th best team in the ACC and good enough to get in, but the real question is, are they that much better than Wake Forest, Miami, and Maryland that they'll get above .500 in ACC play? If they can get to 9-10 wins in ACC play, I think that'll be enough.

Miami (11): Excellent non-conference slate against a weak schedule capped by win over Minnesota. Loss to BC looking worse and worse though. Their 13-1 record doesn't tell us much. They only get one shot against Duke and @ UNC, which means less chances for marquee wins but a better chance at more wins. This team appears to be in at the moment, but will need to prove themselves, starting on Saturday when fellow bubbler Wake Forest comes into town.

Wake Forest (7): Survived in OT against Xavier and are looking better and better as the No shame at losing @ Purdue, and the William & Mary loss actually looks somewhat acceptable. Win @ Gonzaga put them on the map, and solid home win vs. Richmond gives Wake some momentum heading into ACC play. Like the two above them, they'll need to stay above .500 in the ACC to stay in the tournament mix.

Virginia Tech: Like Miami, they had an impressive non-conference record at 12-1, but the record doesn't have much to back it up. Good neutral court win vs. Seton Hall on Saturday is their best win so far. We'll find out more about this team next Saturday @ UNC, where at the very least, a good showing will help them gain some credibility.

Likely not in:

Maryland: I expected more out of this team. None of the 4 losses are particularly bad, but they were all four shots to get good wins heading into ACC play. As it stands, their best win is @ Indiana, which is marginally okay. Florida State comes into Terp country next Sunday, and a win is essential for a Maryland team that probably needs 10+ wins to get in.

North Carolina State: Heartbreaking loss to Florida puts a dent in the Wolfpack's tournament hopes. Like Virginia Tech and Miami though, the Wolfpack are probably closer to a bid than you might expect. Best win so far is @ Marquette, which is actually pretty good for a bubble team. Losses vs Northwestern, Wake Forest, and @ Arizona are not awful, although it's probably telling that they're 1-4 vs. potential bubble teams.

Big East

The big word for this conference so far is parity. Like the ACC, lack of an elite team means there's opportunities for the mid-level teams to get some good wins. Last year, a top heavy conference meant the top feasted on the middle and resulted in 7 bids out of what was initially projected to be a 9 or even 10 team league. While the conference may not be as strong at the top as it once was, it may get more teams in this year.

Locks: Syracuse (2), West Virginia (2), Villanova (2), Georgetown (3)

Should be in:

UConn (5): Loss @ Cincinnati somewhat countered by win at home vs. ND. They've looked somewhat sketchy at times this year but barring a tremendous collapse should be a lock in no time.

Bubble teams:

Pittsburgh (7): Huge win @ Syracuse puts an exclamation point on a resume that was somewhat lacking up until this point. Best win before was Wichita State, with a somewhat ugly neutral court loss to Indiana also thrown in there. Then followed that up with a road win vs. Cincinnati, letting us know they're for real. 3 of next 5 conference games are against fellow bubble teams, and the other two are @ UConn and Georgetown so a good start will be important. No rest in the Big East.

Cincinnati (9): Solid, if unspectacular, non-conference results. Wins vs. Vanderbilt and Maryland balanced by losses vs. Gonzaga, Xavier, and UAB. Big home win in their first conference game vs. UConn but let one slip away vs. Pitt. Offensively I question whether or not this team is good enough to do anything in the tournament, but they're good for now. A relatively soft slate over the next month should allow the Bearcats to gain some momentum.

Marquette (9): One of the season's early surprise teams, the luster has worn off a bit. Wins over Xavier and Michigan don't look nearly as good now as they used to, and near misses vs. Florida State, West Virginia, and Villanova could really come back to hurt them. The Golden Eagles must rebound this week when they play Georgetown on Wednesday and then go to Villanova on Saturday for the rematch. Neither are must-wins, but you really don't want to start 0-4 in Big East play.

St. John's: Bad loss to Providence now limits the Red Storm's margin of error. Still have three very winnable games before their game @ UConn on the 20th. Of the four, a loss to Cincinnati at home would probably be the only semi-acceptable one for a tournament team. Also have wins at Temple and vs. Siena.

Likely not in:

Seton Hall: Like Marquette, the Pirates also missed out on a couple of shots at good wins against West Virginia and Syracuse, and also fell in OT to Virginia Tech. They don't have the non-conference wins to back them up (best on is Cornell) so they need to start racking up conference wins, beginning on Wednesday @ UConn.

Louisville: The Cardinals weren't playing a difficult non-conference slate as it was, but losses to the only tough teams on their schedule leaves them with nothing resembling a decent win. Must take care of business @ Providence on Wednesday and at home vs. St. John's on Saturday.

Notre Dame: Nothing very exciting on the Irish's resume thus far, and an ugly loss at home vs. Loyola Marymount. They played UConn close on Saturday but the defense and support for Harangody offensively just isn't there. West Virginia comes to South Bend on Saturday and it would do them well to come out of that one with a win.

South Florida: Hanging on by a thread, the Bulls looked bad at Louisville last Wednesday, and that's definitely not a good sign. They need to start piling together some wins.

Big Ten

The Big Ten has steadily been the third best conference in the nation this year, behind the Big East and Big 12, and they look to stay that way for the time being. Purdue has been outstanding, and there have been some nice surprises and also some disappointments. In the end, I expect 5 or 6 teams to be dancing come March, which is slightly under preseason expectations.

Locks: Purdue (1)

Should be in:

Michigan State (4): Take away the preseason expectations and the ranking, and look at the resume. Is this a resume that screams lock to you? Not to me, at this point in the season. Doesn't mean they won't be a lock, just there's the possibility for collapse. Win at Northwestern keeps them on the right track.

Wisconsin (3): The biggest surprise of the year, the Badgers have the big win vs. Duke to fall back on and are probably a loss @ Green Bay away from being a lock. Still, a win @ Michigan State on Wednesday will move them to lock status.

Minnesota (7): I find it very hard to make an argument to keep Tubby's squad out of the tournament at this point. All losses are understandable (although the Portland loss is looking somewhat iffy) and a decent neutral court win over Butler is in the mix. Big opportunity to prove something @ Purdue on Tuesday, followed by a should win at home on Saturday vs. a Turner-less Ohio State.

Bubble Teams:

Ohio State (10): With Turner? This is a top 15 team, no question. Without Turner? I'm not sure this is a tournament team. They looked really, really bad at Wisconsin on New Year's Eve and the offense looks absolutely lost. Lost @ Michigan on Saturday and now really need a home win vs. Indiana before they go to Minnesota on Saturday. Turner's an ace in the hole, but they don't want to rely on him coming back 100% just to make the dance.

Illinois (12): I really like this team, but the losses are beginning to pile up. A massive comeback at the Unite Center vs. Gonzaga was stopped short, and the 9-5 Illini are not in a position to lose many more home games against decent opponents. Three bad losses remove any sparkle the Clemson, Vanderbilt, and Northwestern wins put on the Illini resume. Three must wins against the bottom of the Big Ten leading up to next Saturday's meeting with Michigan State in East Lansing.

Northwestern: Another one of the early season surprises, they let one slip away in Champaign before getting dominated in the 2nd half vs. Michigan State. They have ok wins vs. Iowa State and Notre Dame, but bigger wins will be necessary to impress the committee. The best chance for those are next week when Wisconsin and Purdue come into town on back-to-back games.

Likely not in:

Nobody. Michigan has been so terrible they don't even make this list. Indiana and Penn State have been better but neither has done enough to merit much consideration.

Big 12

The most top-heavy conference, with three teams in the top 10 and the top two teams in the country. I have Kansas St. as a lock to join Kansas and Texas. Other than those three, there's a fairly steep drop-off. The next best team, Texas A & M, is by no means a lock to get in, although they're probably safe right now. Beyond that, there are no guarantees.

Locks: Kansas (1), Texas (1), Kansas St. (3)

Should be in:

Texas A & M (6): The Aggies certainly wouldn't be left out if the season ended today, but they haven't separated themselves enough from the middle of the Big 12 to make me feel completely safe about their tournament chances. Two big road games at Kansas St. and Texas next week. Get one of two and they're probably locked up (for now).

Bubble teams:

Texas Tech (10): Had they lost at home to McNeese St. on New Year's, I'd feel a lot worse about their chances. As it stands, the Red Raiders have a wins over Washington and UTEP to brag about, and a couple of road losses to Wichita St. and New Mexico. Not bad losses, but doesn't exactly make you feel safe about making them a tournament team. More wins are necessary, but they're at least on the right side at the moment.

Baylor (9): The Bears are flying under the radar a bit, but they've rode one of the biggest starting lineups in the country to solid road wins over South Carolina and Arkansas and a neutral court win over Xavier. Kinda remind me of Florida State with their slow pace and size. Anyway, they're in good shape at the moment as well. Must take care of business at home vs. Oklahoma this Saturday and Oklahoma St. next Saturday.

Oklahoma State (10): The Cowboys haven't exactly disappointed as much as they haven't impressed. Still looking for that statement win, they beat Stanford by 1 and lost to Tulsa and Rhode Island, both away from Stillwater. Texas Tech comes into town on Saturday in what will be an important game bubble-wise.

Missouri (12): Probably closer to the bubble than you might expect. A good win against Illinois is looking worse, though, and they have a not-so-pretty loss to Oral Roberts on there as well. They have Kansas State at home on Saturday, and that would be a nice win to pick up. Otherwise, a string of bubble games before they pay a visit to Kansas on the 23rd.

Likely not in:

Oklahoma: Too many bad losses to consider them at this point. Next 5 games are against teams either in the tournament or on the bubble, but they'd probably have to go 4-1 or win all 5 to make some real noise.

Iowa State: Whiffed on all three chances to get a solid non-conference win (Northwestern, Northern Iowa, Cal) and unless they can take out Duke in Chicago, they must rely on winning games in a tough conference. Not that upsetting Duke isn't possible, but you get the idea.

Nebraska: They actually have a couple of decent wins over USC and Tulsa, but outside of that the cupboard is bare. Win at A & M on Saturday and we'll talk.

Pac-10

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the weakest power conference in major college basketball history. And that's probably not a joke. There's a really good chance only two Pac-10 teams are getting in (especially after the news that USC is banning themselves from postseason play takes away a potential bubble team) and there's an outside possibility only one gets in. That's how bad it is. No east coast bias this year... the west coast just sucks.

Locks: None

Should be in:

Washington (6): The strongest of the conference just lost at home to Oregon and are by no means locks to make the dance. They were lucky to hold on to their top 25 spot. The next two aren't cakewalks either (@ Arizona State, @ Arizona). I get the feeling this team may not hit the potential most people expected they had in the preseason.

Bubble teams:

Cal (8): There's actually a good argument to be made that the Bears are still the best team in this conference, but the resume doesn't support it at the moment. All four losses are perfectly understandable, but zero wins against likely tournament teams mean Cal has work to do. Putting away the other California schools this week would be a start.

Oregon: Pretty much left for dead since November, the Ducks have come storming back with two good wins at the Washington schools to put themselves on the map. And in this conference, two wins like that move you up to third best in the conference. Rivalry game at home vs. Oregon State looms on Sunday.

Washington State: Two of their three losses are road losses to Gonzaga and Kansas State, and a third was in double OT to Oregon, but absolutely no wins to speak of. With a weak conference slate coming up, the Cougars will need to make their case by sheer number of wins. They travel to Arizona and Arizona State this week and could use a couple of good road wins on their resume.

Arizona State: I thought Arizona State looked pretty good at MSG against Duke, and their non-conference slate was fairly good considering what they have to work with. But it's pretty clear they're undermanned, and two losses at UCLA and USC have them off to a bad start. No more margin of error for the Sun Devils, meaning they may need a sweep of the Washington schools this week to get in the bubble mix.

Likely not in:

Nobody else will sniff the postseason.

SEC

Kentucky, and a lot of mediocrity. The ball is up in the air with Tennessee after the suspensions, leaving Mississippi as the lone challenger to UK's throne. Mississippi State may have something to say about that as well. Lots of parity, especially out east, where three teams behind Kentucky will fight for what may be only one spot.

Locks: Kentucky (1), Mississippi (3)

Should be in:

Mississippi State (6): They have recovered nicely from an ugly early season loss to Rider and have several wins over good mid-major schools. They look to challenge Mississippi for the SEC West title and get their first shot at the Rebels on Saturday.

Bubble teams:

Tennessee (8): Would be in the "should be in" category except now Tyler Smith is gone and I'm not sure how the team will react to that. Important win at Memphis, however sloppy, is probably their selling point at the moment. Big opportunity when Kansas rolls into town on Sunday.

Florida (9): One of the early season giant-killers, the Michigan State win isn't quite the elite win they were hoping for at this point and they have a very bad home South Alabama loss to deal with. Still, their wins are as good as any other bubble team. How big will that 75-footer at NC State be at the end of the year? Big bubble game at Vanderbilt on Saturday before the UK game next Tuesday.

Vanderbilt: Speaking of the Commodores, they played in Maui and looked so-so. As a result, their resume looks pretty so-so as well. Wins over Missouri and St. Mary's, but losses to Illinois and Western Kentucky which are looking worse as the season goes on. Two home games this week, and Vandy will need to take care of business.

Likely not in:

South Carolina: Very quickly slipping out of contention. They get three easy ones before a bunch of must wins vs. Vanderbilt, Mississippi, and Florida.

Alabama: Resume just doesn't have enough to back it up. Baylor win is looking better, but they really need a home win vs. Vanderbilt next Monday.

Atlantic 10:

Probably one of the best mid-major conferences in recent memory, and that include the Missouri Valley conference that sent 4 to the dance a few years back. Four legitimate tournament teams, plus a very solid middle of the pack. Should be entertaining east coast basketball over the next two months.

Locks: None. Temple could've locked it up on Saturday but laid an egg at home vs. Kansas.

Should be in:

Temple (5): It's a shame they couldn't at least show up vs. Kansas, because it really would've capped off what's been an excellent non-conference season. I'm not convined they have the firepower to win the conference, but they'll certainly be up there. They go to Rhode Island on Sunday and would be wise to not duplicate the Kansas performance there.

Dayton (8): A couple of good wins vs. Georgia Tech and Old Dominion and three understandable losses. For my money they're still the best in this conference. Next Saturday they go to Xavier, never a fun place to play. A win would move them very close to lock status.

Bubble teams:

Richmond: While I wouldn't necessarily pick a Spider as my mascot, it's been good enough for Richmond. Three good wins over Missouri, Old Dominion, and Florida equal out four not-so-good losses. Margin for error is small, but they can and should be 8-0 by the time they welcome Temple on February 6th.

Rhode Island (11): Don't know much about the Rhodies? Well, they beat Oklahoma State last Saturday and are 11-1, even though their schedule has been pretty weak. They'll put themselves on the map if they take down Temple at home on Sunday.

Xavier: Who would've thought this team would be fifth-best in the conference after three straight titles? In any case, the Musketeers have had their opportunities but really only have a double OT home win over Cincinnati to show for it. That's not going to be enough. Dayton at home in two Saturdays will do, though.

Mountain West

Another great year for the MWC, who looks to be in line to get three teams in and quite possibly a fourth. Once again, the parity at the top may benefit the conference in terms of sheer number of teams dancing in March.

Locks: None.

Should be in:

BYU (5): Can't really envision a scenario where the Cougars don't make it, but we'll hold out for one more week. Two important games vs. UNLV on Wednesday and @ New Mexico on Saturday.

New Mexico (4): Same as above.

Bubble Teams:

UNLV (11): The Runnin' Rebels took out Louisville for the 2nd straight year and have a couple of nice-looking wins here and there, but not enough to wow anybody. Losses to Kansas State and USC could be worse. Two big, big road games vs. the big boys in the conference (BYU and New Mexico) could be instrumental in getting UNLV into the dance.

San Diego State: One of my favorites from last year, the Aztecs are doing it again... sort of. They have next to nothing in the non-conference, but hey, that's where they were at last year when a big early season conference win over Utah put them in contention for a tournament spot. Can they do the same at home against New Mexico on Tuesday? We'll find out.

Others:

Locks: None.

Should be in:

Gonzaga (4): The Zags have been up and down this non-conference, but they should clean out the WCC and get in the tournament again. Or will they? Well, we'll know soon. Their two toughest conference games, @ Portland and @ St. Mary's, take place in the next two weeks.

Butler (8): Never really got going this non-conference season and somehow they're still ranked in the coaches' poll. Go figure. Anyway, they've started 3-0 in conference and have wins over a Turner-less Ohio State team and Xavier for backup. Wright State, the next best team in the Horizon, hosts the Bulldogs on Friday.

Northern Iowa (10): Record makes them look better than they actually are, but hard to argue with 12-1. Plus the Missouri Valley champ will likely get a bid. A couple of tough road games vs. Southern Illinois and Illinois St. await.

Bubble Teams:

St. Mary's (11): Yes, the Gaels are actually playing better now that Patty Mills is gone. Anyway, no wins over tournament teams, but decent wins over San Diego State and Oregon. As mentioned earlier, important game next Thursday when big boy Gonzaga comes to visit.

VCU: Another entertaining season for the Colonial. The Rams are back in the tournament hunt, but they have some new competition in the form of Old Dominion and William & Mary, who both have solid wins to speak of. Still, if the conference is going to get an at-large team in, it will likely have to be VCU, with wins over fellow bubblers Rhode Island and Richmond. Already lost at William & Mary, but they'll try to get revenge on the 20th.

Cornell: Wait, what?? We're talking about putting an Ivy League team in with an at-large bid? And Harvard's good too? Hold on a second, my head's spinning... anyway, the Ivy League favorites actually have an argument that they don't need the Ivy auto bid to get in. Well, sort of. Can they beat Kansas on Wednesday? Wouldn't that be something...

Missouri State: The other MVC challenger, they fell at Northern Iowa on Sunday but are still 2-1 in conference and have a non-conference win over Tulsa. Probably not good enough for anything, but at least they have that.

UAB (12): The Blazers have been the best team in the C-USA thus far, with wins over Cincinnati and Butler. Losses to Kent St. and Virginia do hurt. Hard to see the C-USA champ not getting a bid, but no guarantees.

Memphis: Forgetting the name, the Tigers really have done little to suggest they're a tournament team. They go to Syracuse on Wednesday in desperate need of a good win.

In Contention:

None of these teams will be in at the moment, but they're some names to remember: Tulsa, UTEP, Old Dominion, William & Mary, Tulsa, UTEP, Wichita State, Portland, Siena, Utah State, Louisiana Tech.

Weekend of Jan. 2nd - Preview

2010-01-02T07:33:00.000-08:00

Hope everyone had a great beginning to 2010! I know I did. When I thought of how the Purdue-West Virginia game could go down, I really never considered the scenario that actually happened. The first 10 minutes were fairly even, and there was a short stretch at the end of the 1st half where West Virginia pulled closer, but the rest of the game was dominated by Purdue. The Mountaineers could do nothing offensively for most of the game, as Purdue's pressure man-to-man controlled the tempo. On the other side, JaJuan Johnson was outstanding, with 25 points and 10 rebounds, and WVU had no answer for him. Once the outside shots started falling for Purdue, they put away the #6 team in the nation in convincing fashion.

So where does that put my Boilers? Well, for one, I think we can beat anyone in the country, especially in Mackey. Their weaknesses are lack of depth at the 5 and lack of elite quickness on the perimeter, both things a tired WVU team was unable to exploit. Could Kansas, Texas, and Kentucky exploit those? Certainly. What about Syracuse? Probably. But they also have not faced the kind of defense we bring to the table. I'm convinced we're one of the three best defensive teams in the country. Either way, we've got the fast track to a #1 seed, which is the ultimate goal. Things are looking very good for my Boilers.

The other major game was New Mexico holding off a furious late charge by Dayton to pick up another solid non-conference win. The battle between the Lobos and a very underrated BYU team should highlight Mountain West conference play. Here's what's up for this weekend:

Saturday, Jan. 2nd:

Game of the Night:

Kansas @ Temple: Those who have been complaining Kansas has been playing an easy schedule get their wish. They pay a visit to the Owls, who have already taken down Villanova and have been outstanding defensively this year. After the Nova upset, this game moved from trap game to marquee matchup. Kansas has played decent opponents, such as Memphis, Michigan, and Cal, but they haven't played anyone quite as good as this. However, their offense has improved every game since the disastrous performance vs. Memphis. Plus, this is the #1 team in the country, and they need to win games like this. I think Kansas will surprise some people with how well they'll play.

Pick: Kansas 72, Temple 60

Others:

Louisville @ Kentucky: Other major upset possibility of the day, although I don't see UK going down at home to a team that lost to Western Carolina.

Pitt @ Syracuse: Probably not an upset in the Carrier Dome, but the Orange cannot take the Panthers lightly.

Villanova @ Marquette: Marquette missed a big opportunity when they let it slip away at WVU. Here's another chance to get that marquee win.

Notre Dame @ UConn: The Huskies looking to recover after falling @ Cincinnati.

Michigan St. @ Northwestern: I always hate playing Northwestern. I imagine after last year, Michigan St would probably agree.

Oregon @ Washington: The Ducks got a good win at Washington state in OT, and now they get the other Washington school.

Gonzaga @ Illinois: Illinois has been a mixed bag this year. If they can win this one, they'll jump back into my "underrated" pool of teams (by the way, this still includes Kansas State. Why is nobody talking about the Wildcats?)

Baylor @ South Carolina: The Bears just overwhelmed Arkansas with their height inside. But they didn't have to deal with a guy like Devan Downey.

Oklahoma St. @ Rhode Island: The A-10 is as good as it's ever been. Dayton, Temple, Xavier, and a bunch of good mid-level teams... Like the Rams. Oklahoma St. needs to be wary.

Seton Hall @ Virginia Tech: The Governor's Cup. Whatever that means.

Arizona St. @ USC: The nightcap should be competitive, if slightly slow and boring.

Thursday, Dec. 31st in College Basketball

2009-12-31T10:04:00.000-08:00

Cincinnati made a big statement on their home court Wednesday, beating a very good UConn team 71-69. The Bearcats took over the lead in the middle of the 1st half and held that lead for the rest of the game, resisting a late run by the Huskies to pick up an important conference win. Deonta Vaughn and Lance Stephenson combined for 38 of Cincy's 71 points and ran the break very well. If Cincy's offense can play like this more often, they have a good chance at making a run out of the middle of the Big East and into a tournament spot. For UConn, Kemba Walker struggled, going only 3-11 from the floor with 4 turnovers (although he did hit a big three to tie the game at the end).

Illinois trailed for most of the game vs. Northwestern, but a second half charge led to a tie game and a very exciting final 10 minutes of regulation. In overtime, Illinois took the early lead and held on for the win 89-83. Mike Tisdale had 31 and Mike Davis had 20, but it was D. J. Richardson's play in the 2nd half that sparked the Illini and helped them break the pesky NW 1-3-1 zone. Illinois lives and dies by the play of their freshman.

Great games to close out the new year. Here's what's coming up tonight:

Game of the Night:

Tennessee @ Memphis: I was tempted to go with the Ohio St/Wisconsin game, but I decided to go with the rivalry game instead. While it may not have as much draw as a Calipari-Pearl matchup, this game definitely has some interesting storylines. Memphis hasn't had many big games yet this year outside of almost taking down the number 1 team in the country in November, but has Syracuse and Gonzaga later in the season besides this game. Elliot Williams has been outstanding since transferring to Duke. Meanwhile, Tennessee only has two losses, one to undefeated Purdue, but has played a fairly easy schedule otherwise. This will be a good measuring stick for both teams. While Memphis is at home, Tennessee is the more complete team and should have the advantage in this one.

Pick: Tennessee 83, Memphis 76

Others:

Michigan @ Indiana: Big win for IU. On a related note, how far has Michigan plummeted? I mean, I guess there are worse losses than a close loss at Indiana, but they're at .500 now. They're not even on the bubble, and it's a pretty big bubble right now.

Ohio St. @ Wisconsin: Not as exciting now that Evan Turner is still out, but should still be a good matchup.

Oklahoma @ Gonzaga: More competitive than it appeared to be a month ago.

Green Bay @ Butler: Watch out for Green Bay. They beat Wisconsin earlier in the year and will give Butler all they can handle today.

Oregon @ Washington St.: The Ducks haven't done much of anything this year. I swear I'll stop talking about them if they don't win this one.

Richmond @ Wake Forest: Two under the radar teams. Should be entertaining.

Wednesday, Dec. 30th in College Basketball

2009-12-30T15:13:00.000-08:00

Several good games on Tuesday night. Purdue trailed to Iowa at the end of the 1st half but the tide was turning even before that point and the Boilers shut them down in the 2nd. Syracuse fell behind early to Seton Hall, tied it up at halftime, fell behind again, then took the lead and never looked back, winning 80-73. Jeremy Hazell can only do so much by himself. West Virginia, meanwhile, trailed almost the entire game vs. Marquette and needed a Desean Butler fadeaway 18-footer with 2 seconds left to beat the Golden Eagles. The lesson? It's never easy to win on the road in conference, even if you're a top 5 team. The other three undefeated teams, Kansas, Texas, and Kentucky, all won with relative ease. In other games, New Mexico took down Texas Tech at home to rebound from their first loss of the year. More good conference games on tap tonight:

Game of the Night:

UConn at Cincinnati: I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of Big East games featured in this blog. Anyway, Cincinnati is one of those teams that appears to be squarely on the bubble at the moment, and you know they're going to be on the bubble at the end of the year. Cincy will have plenty of chances to get statement wins, but starting off on the right foot is always important. I believe the Bearcats are stout enough defensively that they can slow down UConn. What I worry about is Cincy's offensive abilities. Deonta Vaughn was supposed to get better with the addition of Lance Stephenson, but that hasn't happened. Yancy Gates is solid but not spectacular. The wild card is Stephenson. He has the tools to become a great player, but he needs better shot selection. Those factors mean UConn will probably win a slow-paced game.

Pick: UConn 65, Cincinnati 56

Others:

Baylor @ Arkansas: Baylor is a bubble team at this point, but probably needs this game to really be serious about making a tournament run.

South Carolina @ Boston College: Both teams need a signature win... and, well, this one will have to settle for now.

Northwestern @ Illinois: Guess which team is ranked? No cheating... Okay, it's the Wildcats. After 40 years. Congratulations, NW.

Tuesday, Dec. 29th in College Basketball

2009-12-29T10:25:00.000-08:00

Game of the Night:

Syracuse @ Seton Hall: The Pirates are an interesting team. They haven't beaten anybody (best win is Cornell) but their two losses are to two very good teams in Temple and West Virginia in OT. The Seton Hall offense seems to revolve around Jeremy Hazell and the 15 plus shots he puts up every game, yet three other guys average in double digits and they shoot fairly well from three (if Hazell didn't throw up so many threes at a 30% rate, maybe they'd be even better). This is an intriguing matchup, and I haven't been particularly high on Syracuse this year, so this may be a spot to go with an upset pick. However, I can't see how a team whose offense revolves around one guy taking over a third of his team's shots is going to take down a team as stout defensively as Syracuse has been this year. We'll see, though.

Pick: Syracuse 78, Seton Hall 71

Others:

Marquette @ West Virginia: The tests coming early and often for the Mountaineers. Welcome to conference play.

Texas Tech @ New Mexico: Two surprising squads go at it in a good late non-conference game.

Purdue @ Iowa, Penn St @ Minnesota: Big Ten conference play kicks off tonight as well.

Weekend of Dec. 26th - Review

2009-12-28T08:52:00.000-08:00

Hope everyone had a great holiday! Here's what happened in college basketball this week if you missed it:

Tuesday:

Michigan State hung with Texas for a while until they wilted in the final 5 minutes and the Longhorns came away with a victory. James was excellent, as usual. Pittman was in foul trouble for most of the game and that forced Rick Barnes to go small to match up with Izzo's Spartans. The depth of the Longhorns was in full display, as 5th best scorer Jordan Hamilton lit it up from three (4-6) and had 14 points overall. I think we know where Texas stands: they're probably the best team in the country along with Kansas. But what about the Spartans? So far they have losses to UNC (Top 15-ish), Texas (Top 2), and Florida (not a Top 25, but probably a tournament team), with wins over Gonzaga (borderline Top 25) and that's about it. The polls on Monday will probably have Sparty around 15, but you could make the argument they should be somewhere in the 20's. Will they get better? I would like to think so. Their most glaring weaknesses to me are turnovers (technically should get better over time, but there's a lot of good defenses in the Big Ten), size at the 5 (shouldn't be a huge issue, since they still rebound very well and are big at other positions), and free throw % (somewhat overrated, since a lot of teams struggle from the line). This team's still 2nd best in their conference, but what does that really mean? I'd put them at around 20 right now, just off the top of my head.

Wednesday:

West Virginia took care of business at home vs. a very good Mississippi team to remain undefeated. More on them later. Also, Long Beach State hung with Kentucky and even led at one point in the 2nd half, USC picked up a good non-conference win (this will be a trend), New Mexico was handed their first loss of the season by a scrappy Oral Roberts team, Missouri won for the first time in a decade over Illinois, and Arizona beat NC State on a last second lay-up by Nic Wise.

Friday:

USC continued to stay hot, beating UNLV 67-56 to give the Pac-10 some rare good news this winter. The Trojans are an interesting team. Left for dead at 2-4 earlier this season, USC now has three good non-conference wins to their slate and are rolling heading into conference play. Plus, 3 of those 4 losses (Nebraska, Texas, Georgia Tech) really are not all that bad. Still, they have a paper-thin bench and they have turnover problems, which is a problem when you play at a snail's pace. Maybe their grinding style of play and tough defense will lead to an abundance of wins in the weak Pac-10. They're available.

Saturday:

West Virginia coughed up a 10 point lead in the final minute vs. Seton Hall but pulled it out in OT to stay perfect heading into their New Year's Day showdown with Purdue. I've been saying for a while now that this is the best team in the Big East, and they haven't proven me wrong yet. They're strong defensively, they rebound better than almost anyone despite not having anyone taller than 6-9, and Ebanks isn't even playing that well. If he gets to where he can be offensively, this gives them three legitmately good weapons on the wing along with Desean Butler and Kevin Jones. If there's a team that can match Syracuse's length, it's the Mountaineers. I'm really scared for Friday. And the close call with Seton Hall? As long as they don't give up 41 points to one guy, I think they'll be okay.

Sunday:

Some ranked teams won and stuff.

I'm going to try and get out an initial bracketology/bubble watch for teams heading into conference play. Stay tuned!

Tuesday, Dec. 22nd in College Basketball

2009-12-22T09:19:00.001-08:00

Not a lot of time to write this, but there's some great games on Tuesday, so here's what you should expect.

Game of the Night:

Michigan St. @ Texas: Well, people questioned whether or not Texas was ready on Saturday, and they passed test #1. Here's #2. Yes, the Spartans lost to the team Texas just beat. That doesn't mean they're not any good. Michigan St. is still a very deep team with size at the wings. They're also a better rebounding team than UNC. They probably won't (and shouldn't) try to run with Texas, so I'd imagine they'd look to slow down the game, limit possessions and turnovers, and play a physical game. Will it work? Maybe. State may be able to match up decently enough on the perimeter, but their weakness is at the 5, where they don't really have a solid presence to deal with Pittman. That, and the more you slow down the game, the more Pittman becomes a factor. I think it's too much Texas, especially since it's in Austin.

Pick: Texas 84, Michigan St 76

Others:

Cal v. Kansas: Theo Robertson is back, which makes this game an intriguing one. Upset? Probably not, but do not rule out a team that can hit the 3 consistently.

Stanford v. Texas Tech: Not the most exciting of matchups, but Tech needs a bounceback win after the loss to Wichita State.

Texas A&M v. Washington: Washington failed test #1 vs. G-Town but passed against Portland with flying colors. It doesn't get any easier for UW tonight.

LSU v. Washington St: It will be interesting to see if either of these two teams win enough in conference to make a tournament run. The wins are there for the taking.

Monday, Dec. 21st in College Basketball

2009-12-21T06:58:00.000-08:00

Top things to take away from this weekend:

1. Texas is for real. The thing that amazed me is the number of guys you need to shut down in order to stop Texas offensively. Even if you somehow figure out how to stop Damion James, you still have to hold Avery Bradley in check, and keep Dexter Pittman off the glass, and stop Jordan Hamilton, and J'Covan Brown, and Gary Johnson can score at times... there's a lot of guys in both the frontcourt and backcourt that can hurt you. Plus, they have the best rebounding frontcourt tandem I have seen this year with James and Pittman. They grabbed 30 rebounds combined against a big (albeit not great rebounding) UNC team. I thought the Heels played well too. They shot well, got good production out of Ed Davis, even limited turnovers somewhat. But the final minute of the first half where they gave up 6 points in 30 seconds turned the game from a manageable halftime deficit to a double-digit one. Big win for Texas.

2. This Duke team isn't as talented as earlier teams, especially on the perimeter, but they are probably as good defensively as they've ever been, which will keep them in many games. As for Gonzaga... this team is not this bad. They can't be. But they're clearly nothing more than a top 20 team at this point. When it comes down to it, they don't have that killer scorer, a guy who can take over the game. Gray? Maybe, but he's a jump shooter. Bouldin? Not really. Sacre? Got owned by Zoubek and co. The Zags may have somewhat limited potential this year.

3. Somebody for Michigan other than Harris and Sims needs to start knocking down some shots. And their D wasn't as bad today, but they need to get more defensive intensity too. Lots of things going wrong in Ann Arbor right now.

4. Teams that are for real: New Mexico, Kansas St, the entire A-10 (well, not the whole conference, but much of the top half), Old Dominion, and Iowa State. Teams that are not for real: Georgetown (I thought they turned the corner too...), Tennessee, Texas Tech, and Memphis.

Now for Monday:

Game of the Night:

Drexel @ Kentucky: Only because Kentucky has a shot at becoming the first college basketball team to 2,000 wins. As much as you many not like them, they are one of the greatest programs of all time. Now if only their fan base was better...

Pick: Kentucky 87, Drexel 59

Others:

UTEP v. Oklahoma: The Sooners have been playing better basketball as of late. And UTEP is no pushover.

La Salle v. Oklahoma St.: Other A-10 programs got some decent wins over the weekend. Okie St hasn't really been tested. Who knows?

Weekend Preview: December 19th

2009-12-18T08:43:00.000-08:00

So I took a week off. I checked every day and there weren't really any exciting matchups to write about, and with finals and coming back home, I was busy anyway. But it's Saturday, which means college basketball is back in full swing and I'm ready for a bunch of great games. Because it's Christmas, and because of my week off, I'll give you guys a present: I'll pick every game I talk about today. That's right, you can see how wrong I am more than once today. That has to be exciting enough to make you read the rest of this post.

Saturday, Dec. 19th

Game of the Day:

UNC v. Texas (Dallas): Man, the Heels have played some good non conf games. And most of them haven't been in Chapel Hill. By now, we have a good feel for UNC; good size, lots of depth, no real primary scorer, which occasionally leads to prolonged scoring droughts, and lack of offensive ability on the perimeter. Enter Texas, who has one of the deepest backcourts/perimeters in the game, and has given up over 62 points in a game once this year (and that was against Long Beach St and was likely due to pace of the game more than anything). Oh, and this is pretty much a home game for Texas. Not a good sign.

Pick: Texas 80, UNC 64

Michigan v. Kansas: The "Green Game", whatever that means. Maybe it means Beilein should tell his team that shoots under 29% from three to throw up 40 threes a game. I understand it's Beilein's coaching style, but still. Probably should play some defense too. Either way, they don't really match up properly vs. Kansas.

Pick: Kansas 87, Michigan 72

Gonzaga v. Duke (NYC): Could be one of the best contests we see today. Duke is big, obviously, but they haven't seen a guy as skilled as Robert Sacre in the post all year. The Blue Devils have a tendency to rout out the cupcakes and then play slow and shoot poorly against good teams, especially quality defenses. I'll take the Zags in the upset.

Pick: Gonzaga 67, Duke 64

Xavier v. Butler: Fun with the mid-majors. Butler's struggled this year, but so has Xavier. Bulldogs it is.

Pick: Butler 71, Xavier 61

Old Dominion v. Georgetown: The Hoyas are for real, but don't be surprised if ODU gives them a scare.

Pick: Georgetown 75, ODU 69

Texas Tech v. Wichita St: Can you say "trap game"? For no reason whatsoever, I'll make a "shocking" pick and take WSU. Get it? ... no? ... okay.

Pick: Shockers 75, Red Raiders 71

Portland v. Washington: Both teams need this win for one reason or another. I'll take the Huskies to get back on track.

Pick: Washington 85, Portland 73

Kansas St v. Alabama: The most underrated team in the country? Illinois. The 2nd most underrated? The away team right here. Sure, Bama almost pulled off the upset over Purdue, but K-State's still better than Bama, and this time there's no Heisman Trophy announcement to fire up the crowd.

Pick: Kansas St 78, Alabama 65

UCLA v. ND: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. That comment was directed at both teams (sorry, can't lose on your home floor to Loyola Marymount and escape the jaws of public humiliation).

Pick: ND 72, UCLA 54

Western Kentucky v. Louisville: It's okay, Pitino just has problems against teams with "Western" in their name.

Pick: WKU 76, Louisville 73

Temple v. Seton Hall: I enjoy how this is more likely to be a matchup of tournament teams than the UCLA-ND game.

Pick: Temple 70, Seton Hall 68

Sunday, December 20th

Game of the Day:

Florida St. v. Georgia Tech: Important early season ACC matchup. I haven't watched a ton of GT, but they've been excellent this year compared to last year's squad. Shumpert's injury hurts them, but frosh Mfon Udofia was playing just as well at the point, and when you have guys like Lawal and Favors inside to deal with, you're going to create problems inside against anyone. However, this is a conference that has a lot of size, and it's going to be the guard play that will differentiate teams. That means guys like Derwin Kitchen need to step it up for FSU in conference play. It's been a mixed bag for Florida State against teams of GT's caliber... I'm going to say FSU's offensive problems are their downfall again. GT wins.

Pick: Georgia Tech 71, Florida State 63

Others:

NC State v. Wake Forest: Another good ACC matchup. Man, the ACC is crowded in the middle. It'll be interesting to see Wake's ceiling though. They're athletic enough to be in the top 3 of the ACC. Can they execute offensively, shoot well from the perimeter consistently, and avoid turnover problems? If yes, they'll be a dangerous team.

Pick: Wake Forest 70, NC State 55

Weekend Preview - December 12th

2009-12-12T07:49:00.000-08:00

Syracuse continues to pick up good non conference wins with an 85-73 victory over Florida. The zone wasn't at its best on Thursday night, but they kept Florida out of the paint, away from the foul line, and they racked up plenty of steals and turnovers. Not that it really would've mattered. The Syracuse offense was on display last night, particularly the frontcourt, where Rick Jackson put on a show. 21 points and 11 rebounds, seven of them offensive, but perhaps more importantly, the Florida frontline was shut down all night long, forcing the Gators to live by the three. That reliance on the three point shot, combined with Florida's inability to get a stop, cost them the game. Syracuse has as good a resume as anyone in the conference right now... but they haven't played anyone with the athleticism on the perimeter to punish the zone off the dribble. They will face that against Nova, WVU, and UConn and G-Town to a lesser extent. Stay tuned.

Fridays are traditionally pretty lame in college basketball (except Vandy vs. W Kentucky might be fun) so we'll just skip ahead to what appears to be a loaded Saturday slate. A Top 10 confrontation is about all that's missing from this weekend's games. Let's take a look:

Saturday, December 12th

Game of the Day:

Georgetown @ Washington: At some point in December I'm going to unveil my first Top 25 rankings, and I'm not exactly sure where these teams belong. Washington can be a Top 10 team, but if a fast, efficient offensive team like the Huskies can't outscore Texas Tech, what are they gonna do against Top 10 teams? The Hoyas could also be a Top 10 team... if Greg Monroe plays with the same intensity he had against Butler. My conclusion: I need to see one more monster game out of Monroe before I believe he is going to demand the ball like an offensive star should. If he doesn't, UW is more than talented enough to push the tempo and put the ball in the bucket consistently.

Pick: Washington 85, G-Town 70

Others:

Marquette @ Wisconsin: Fun crosstown matchup between two surprising teams this year (although Wisky's come back to Earth a bit).

Ohio St. @ Butler: Would be a much better matchup had Turner not gotten hurt.

Purdue @ Alabama: This game screams "trap game" at me. Be ready, Boilers.

Kentucky @ Indiana: Same as above, but to a much lesser extent.

Oklahoma @ Utah: Both teams could use a good win... heck, OU's been on life support for the past three weeks.

St. Mary's @ Oregon: I write this more because St. Mary's has been on fire as of late and has a realistic shot at making a run at an at-large bid.

Mississippi St @ UCLA: Man, if UCLA was actually good, they would've had some really fun early season games...

Texas A&M @ New Mexico: Extremely, extremely underrated game. Both are good teams and fairly evenly matched when you throw in the home court advantage.

Siena @ Northern Iowa: Mid-major matchup of the night.

Kansas St @ UNLV: Good Mountain West teams taking on tough competition at home... I sense a theme here.

Sunday, December 13th:

Game of the Day:

Cincinnati @ Xavier: This is the best I could do. Not that it won't be fun, it's just that it might be a little... slow. Cincy's in no hurry to push the tempo, and Xavier isn't going to blow them away either. The rivalry factor and the home crowd will keep it close for Xavier, but Cincy's the better team. Xavier has three losses and all three teams are as good as or worse than UC. I'll take the Bearcats.

Pic k: Cincinnati 64, Xavier 58

Others:

Villanova @ Temple: Big Five games always seem to be competitive if not close, and Temple is one of the better A-10 squads this year.

Rhode Island @ Boston College: On second thought... nevermind. BC lost to Harvard. Not worth talking about.

Thursday, Dec. 10th in College Basketball

2009-12-10T10:21:00.000-08:00

John Wall shows us once again why he's a special player. With the Wildcats struggling to score down the stretch, Wall put his team on his back, scored 12 of the final 15 points for UK, and led them to a 64-61 victory over UConn. Wall seems to live for these big moments, and down the stretch he was basically unstoppable no matter who Calhoun put on him. Kentucky still has turnover problems (Wall especially), they still can't shoot from the outside, they still have issues executing in a halfcourt set... but they're 9-0 and they've beaten some pretty good teams in road venues (and let's face it, MSG was primarily UConn fans last night). The Huskies weren't bad yesterday but they found ways to shoot themselves in the foot, whether it be inopportune turnovers or giving up offensive rebounds. I'd like to believe this is a top 10 team, but they need more consistency out of Jerome Dyson in order for that to happen. Top 15, Top 20 seems more reasonable at this point.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin fell in overtime to Green Bay, as the defense that gave Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer fits was non-existant (48% shooting, 9-18 from three for GB). For the 2nd game in a row Nova gave up over 85 but simply out-scored their opponents. They have a TON of weapons and are incredibly difficult to shut down. Kansas clubbed another nobody and the other ranked teams took care of business. And Oral Roberts stunned Missouri on a last second lay-up, dealing a big blow to the Tigers. Here's what's up tonight:

Game of the Night:

Syracuse v. Florida: The SEC/Big East Two Day Event/Challenge Thingy continues with a very intriguing matchup. This young Gators team has handled everything thrown at them so far and has looked really good doing so. This team has four guys scoring in double figures and and has been superb defensively. The same could be said for Syracuse (by the way, this seems to be a theme. Team loses key player, team focuses on defense, team is actually better. See Gonzaga another example) but the Orange offense is more focused around one guy, Wesley Johnson. It will be interesting to see how this offense operates when Johnson is not shooting 60% from the floor. It's going to happen eventually, and why not against a defensive-minded team that has some size? I'll take Florida in a 2nd straight minor upset.

Pick: Florida 75, Syracuse 70

Others:

DePaul v. Mississippi St: Actually might be a decent game.

Colorado v. Colorado St: Yay for rivalry games between two irrelevant teams.

Wednesday, Dec. 9th in College Basketball

2009-12-09T09:34:00.000-08:00

So Greg Monroe comes out of his shell. The Georgetown big man showed how he can take over a game, going 9 of 20 for 24 points as G-Town beat Butler 72-65. Monroe looked for his shot, which in turn opened up good looks for guys like Austin Freeman. And Chris Wright didn't even play that well. If Georgetown can consistently work from the inside out, they will be successful because there's few guys in the country who can man up Monroe. As for Butler, inconsistency continues to plague Matt Howard, and Butler can't afford to have their best big man scoring and in foul trouble, particularly against a good defensive team like the Hoyas.

Also... how about another solid win for Illinois? They should be a Top 25 team despite some ugly losses. A bad loss for Pitt, who just looks lost offensively. And Kansas State continues to pile up decent wins. They'll get their shot at Texas and Kansas, but for now they've got to deal with UNLV on Saturday. Let's look at what's up tonight.

Game of the Night:

Kentucky v. UConn: Good times. If UConn was having issues on the boards vs. Duke, they're going to have all kinds of problems keeping UK from grabbing 15+ offensive rebounds. It's a shame, because the Huskies are a very good defensive team and if they can slow the game down like UNC did in the 2nd half vs. UK and make the Wildcats execute in a halfcourt set, they have a very good chance at winning this game. In fact, this game may go down in a similar fashion as the UNC-UK game... except UConn has the guards to punish Kentucky on the perimeter and avoid long droughts like the Heels had. The Huskies shoot better than they did against Duke and come out with the upset.

Pick: UConn 77, Kentucky 73

Others:

Duquesne @ West Virginia: Am I the only one who thinks the Dukes can give WVU a game? Yea probably.

Villanova @ St. Joseph's: Same as above... no wait, I saw St. Joseph's play. Nova's gonna blow them out.

Michigan @ Utah: Very important game for both teams. Michigan is by no means a lock for an at-large spot in the tourney.

Tuesday, Dec 8th in College Basketball

2009-12-08T09:40:00.000-08:00

Nothing major happened last night, unless you count Texas kicking Long Beach St.'s butt, so let's get to tonight's action:

Game of the Night:

Butler v. Georgetown: Part of the Jimmy V Classic at MSG, this matchup features two top 20 opponents that really haven't done a whole lot this year to give me any confidence in them. Butler in my opinion shouldn't even be a top 25 team. Losses to Clemson and Minnesota have looked worse since they've happened, and Butler hasn't been all that impressive in their other wins. I guess the Bulldogs' style of play lends them to ugly wins, but still.... The one time I saw Georgetown this season was their one point win vs. Temple. Monroe has been solid, if unspectacular, and Chris Wright has looked good offensively, but they really haven't played anyone, and Butler will probably be their biggest test on both sides of the court this season. Butler's two losses have been against athletic teams, and I'm not sure Georgetown really fits that mold. I'll take the Bulldogs to get a solid win.

Pick: Butler 62, Georgetown 56

Others:

Vanderbilt @ Illinois: Coming off the big win at Clemson, the Illini will have some momentum when Vandy rolls into town.

Dayton @ George Mason: Important game for both teams in terms of at-large hopes.

Indiana @ Pitt: The 2nd half of the Jimmy V Classic.

Xavier @ Kansas St: Both top A-10 Programs going on the road to hostile environments. Plus K-State's not getting a ton of national attention, which could change quickly.

Arizona St @ BYU: One of the few feel good stories of the year for the Pac-10 faces a challenging road game.

Dec. 5th Weekend Recap

2009-12-07T07:23:00.001-08:00

Well, Kentucky certainly justified their Top 5 ranking. UK went on a 28-2 run in the 1st half against UNC and held off a 2nd half comeback to come out on top 68-66. The Wildcats looked as good as anyone in the country in the 1st half. John Wall runs the break as well as anyone in the country, has tremendous quickness, and finishes well at the rim. He also has great passing skills and consistently finds the open man. The UK defense left the Heels completely inept in the 1st half, not allowing UNC's perimeter guards to get the ball inside. In the 2nd half, Wall and UK were sloppier and UNC were able to slow the game down and get the ball inside to Thompson, Davis, and Zeller, and they whittled the lead down. However, Kentucky was able to hold on for the win behind Wall and Patrick Patterson's 19 points. Big win for this young team, and while they still need to play consistently well for 40 minutes, UK definitely established themselves as a great team and potentially a title contender.

In other weekend basketball news, Evan Turner went down hard after attempting a dunk and will be out 8 weeks with 2 broken vertebrae. That's a big hit to a team who IMO was hovering right around top 10 territory and was trying to establish themselves as a force in the Big Ten. Turner is the guy that makes their offense go and is really the only guy that can create a shot by himself. Without Turner, Ohio St will struggle to stay at .500 in Big Ten play until Turner comes back, and they also have non conf games against Butler and West Virginia to deal with. Props to NC State for beating Marquette and Wake Forest for going into the Kennel and taking down Gonzaga in a very hostile environment. No props to Penn St, who managed 42 points and 3 of 15 shooting from Talor Battle in a loss to Temple, and Oregon, who lost by nearly 40 to Missouri.

On Sunday, UCLA actually gave a valiant effort for once but never really threatened the #1 team in the nation. Kansas shot poorly (except for Xavier Henry) and wasn't their best but got big contributions from Henry (16 points on 4 threes) and Markieff Morris (19 points in 21 minutes) to win at Pauley Pavilion. Number 3 Villanova hit 11 first half threes and 16 overall to drown Maryland. The Terps were on fire as well (52% from the field) but they couldn't keep up with Nova, partially because they gave up 20 offensive rebounds. Clemson beat rival South Carolina, Boston College nipped Miami in the first ACC conference game of the year, Portland lost again to a weaker mid-major (not good for their at large hopes) and OU beat a struggling Arizona team.

Just a preview of what's to come. In the next few weeks I will be debuting my first Top 25, Bracketology, and Bubble Watch. I'm not sure how often I'll be able to do this this year, but if I have the time, why not? Plus it will be a good review of the early non-conference season. Until then, I'll continue with the daily updates and try and keep you aware of the big picture in college basketball. Because in this blog, we are always focused on March.

Weekend of Dec. 5th - Preview

2009-12-05T07:20:00.000-08:00

It's the weekend! Lots to talk about. First, the first victory for the Big Ten in the challenge required a 23 point 2nd half comeback by Illinois and a top 10 upset by Wisconsin. Both Big 10 schools were impressive in their own ways. I noticed Illinois early in the year and realized they could be special this year. Anytime you rely on a couple of freshman (Brandon Paul and D. J. Richardson) to play a big role in the offense, there will be hiccups. But Illinois now has that speed, quickness, and offensive ability on the perimeter they really needed last year. Now the question is, can Paul and Richardson match the defensive intensity Trent Meacham and Chester Frazier brought every night to the court? If they can, this is one of the best teams in the Big 10.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, led basically wire-to-wire against Duke. The Badgers have always been tough at home, so it doesn't completely surprise me that they won. The dominating fashion in which they won, however, was impressive. Now, while I don't believe Trevon Hughes and Wisconsin will shoot as well from the perimeter consistently as they did on Wednesday, I do think this is an efficient, well-coached basketball team that forces teams to play their style of basketball. At the very least, that will make them competitive every night, but when they hit shots, it gives them knockout power.

Other big games on Wednesday include Ohio St's dominance of Florida St, Gonzaga's comeback win over Washington St on the back of 28 points from Matt Bouldin, UNLV's overtime win against Arizona, and big wins for Miami, Northern Iowa, and Boston College. On Thursday, USC made things interesting early vs. Texas but the Longhorns put them away in the 2nd half. Washington realized the best way to avoid being upset on the road is not to give up 50 points in the 1st half and 99 points overall. And Baylor survived a close game vs. Arizona St. and picked up a good non conf win.

This weekend marks the end of college football dominance of Saturdays and the entrance of college basketball in the spotlight. Celebrate by watching a big-time matchup in Lexington before the conf champ games in football begin.

Game of the Night:

UNC @ Kentucky: Finally, a big time college basketball game to challenge football on the weekends! These teams are actually very similar. Lots of athleticism and size, somewhat erratic and turnover-prone offenses, youth and inexperience on the perimeter. UNC's perimeter play won them the Michigan St. game, and they will likely need similar play from Larry Drew and Dexter Strickland to beat Kentucky this afternoon. Defensively, I expect UNC to pack it in and force UK to hit threes and beat them on the outside, like Stanford and Miami (OH) did. I think Kentucky has the advantage on the perimeter with John Wall, but I have a feeling the Wildcats are walking on thin ice right now and are due for an early season loss. Meanwhile, UNC has already played several Top 10 teams and will be prepared for the speed that Kentucky brings to the table.

Pick: UNC 78, Kentucky 74

Others:

St. John's @ Duke: Every year we wonder if the Red Storm can take down the Dukies... can they finally come through this year?

Wake Forest @ Gonzaga: If Wake thought Mackey was tough, they'll have fun out in Spokane tonight.

Iowa State @ Cal: The Pac-10 BADLY needs a decent win, and at this point, the Cyclones probably qualify as one.

USC @ Georgia Tech: The Trojans put up a good fight vs. Texas, and should have an easier time vs. a less talented team.

NC State @ Marquette: The honeymoon for the Wolfpack ended against Northwestern. Good luck dealing with one of the real surprises of the year.

DePaul @ Vanderbilt: I'm gonna guess the Blue Demons are going to win a Big East game this year.

Washington St. @ Kansas St.: I'm really, really big on both of these teams. The Cougars are probably one of the best teams in the Pac-10, and the Wildcats are going to surprise people in the Big 12.

St. Mary's @ Utah St.: Mid-major game of the night.

Sunday, Dec. 6th

Game of the Night:

Villanova @ Maryland: Beats out Kansas/UCLA because of how bad the Bruins are. At first glance, it appears the Terps have struggles early on. But then again, it seems Cincinnati and Maryland are better than predicted, and they survived at home vs. Indiana to go to 5-2 on the season. Vazquez is still shooting poorly but at least he got to the line consistently on Tuesday. Also, guys like Sean Mosely and Landon Milbourne have picked up the offensive slack. They'll have their hands full, though, with an extremely talented Villanova backcourt. Defensively, I think Maryland will be okay, but I don't know how they're going to score consistently against a Nova team that has been extremely stout and defense.

Pick: Villanova 76, Maryland 65

Others:

Kansas @ UCLA: For this game to not be Game of the Night, pretty much everything that could have gone wrong for the Bruins had to. That has been the case so far.

South Carolina @ Clemson: The rivalry takes basketball form and should be an interesting game to boot.

Miami @ BC: What?? A conference game? But it's early December... ok...

Arizona @ Oklahoma: Both teams desperately need a decent win at this point.

Thursday, Dec. 3rd in College Basketball

2009-12-03T12:32:00.000-08:00

Due to limited amounts of time, I will cover the results of the Big 10-ACC Challenge in my weekend preview. For now, let's look ahead to Thursday, which should have some decent Pac-10/Big 12 matchups. Maybe.

Game of the Night:

Baylor @ Arizona State: Yes people, this is it. I value close games and intriguing matchups over blowouts by ranked opponents. In fact, these two teams have actually been pretty good in the early going. The Sun Devils beat LSU at MSG a couple of weeks ago and hung with Duke for a while a day earlier. The best guy I saw for Arizona State was freshman guard Trent Lockett, who was getting to the buc ket at will against Duke and finishing well before succumbing to foul trouble. Derek Glasser is the team leader, and Eric Boateng has matured into a good post player. On the other side, Baylor is also 6-1 with a win over Xavier. LaceDarius Dunn is leading the rebuilding charge, averaging almost 21 pts a game. This should be a fun game to watch and it will be interesting to see if either of these teams can become tournament worthy.

Pick: Arizona State 73, Baylor 69

Others:

USC @ Texas: Would be more fun if it was football. I really, really tried to talk myself into seeing how this could be a decent game, but I couldn't.

Washington @ Texas Tech: After a cupcake early season schedule, UW gets this and Cal St Northridge before facing Georgetown, Portland, and Texas A&M in a row. This game wil also be the only non conf game the Huskies have outside of Washington. Wimps.

Wednesday, Dec. 2nd in College Basketball

2009-12-02T10:43:00.000-08:00

All kinds of things to talk about today after last night's games. UNC was hitting on all cylinders last night in their 89-82 victory over Michigan State. The Heels finally got a big time performance from Ed Davis and got the guard play they needed from Larry Drew. Dexter Strickland also looked impressive in limited minutes. They turned it over a lot, especially late, but when you shoot 57% you can afford to have a few poor possessions. Defensively, they were strong, limiting the Spartans from the perimeter (although they gave up a few too many offensive boards). As for Michigan State, they seem to miss Goran Suton a lot more than normal tonight. Michigan State's guards did not shoot well from the outside and they were beat up inside, which led to open outside jumpers threes for UNC. I think Sparty will be fine, but they can't afford shooting performances like that against top tier opponents.

Purdue shot just as poorly but ended up on top thanks to big games from Johnson and Moore. E'Twaun has risen to the occasion the past few games and taken over the scoring reins, and JaJuan was his usual dominant self. But the rallying call for the Boilers (as usual) was their defense, causing 25 turnovers and effectively negating Wake's height and Ishmael Smith's speed in the 2nd half. Wake needs to become more skilled on the perimeter if they want to avoid long scoring droughts like ones they had in the 2nd half of Tuesday's game. For the Boilers, well, I would like to see someone other than Moore and Johnson start scoring (Hummel??) but having one of the best defenses in the game is a nice tradeoff.

Now for today... You know you're a college basketball fan when you look at the day's lineup and it makes you all giddy inside. Today is one of those days. In fact, I have plenty of games to talk about without even mentioning the five ACC/Big Ten Challenge games taking place. Let's begin out west:

Game of the Night:

Washington State @ Gonzaga: Who would have thought this game would turn out to be as good a matchup as it is? Some in Spokane have been saying this is the best Zags team in years. Without getting into too much about recent Gonzaga basketball, let's just say that although their ranking isn't as high as previous years, the Zags are certainly equipped to make a deep tournament run. This team is as committed to defense as any Gonzaga team this decade. And while there may not be many big names, guys like Matt Bouldin, Steven Gray, and Robert Sacre have matured into very nice players and see to be working together well. Depth and athleticism could be an issue, but for now they look capable of beating anyone on their schedule, including @ Duke on Dec 19th.

The Cougars entered the year with even less expectations than the Zags, but apparently all they needed was a change in style. After seeing year after year of slow-paced, mid-50s scoring, Ken Bone has implemented a much more up-tempo style and Washington State has scored less than 85 in a game once this year. Clay Thompson is quickly becoming a household name with his 28 point per game average. The Cougars look like the 3rd best team in a very weak Pac-10 right now. But before we get too excited, let's remember they haven't really beaten anyone yet. And they haven't played a defense nearly as good as Gonzaga's. The Bulldogs take this one.

Pick: Gonzaga 79, Washington State 74

Others:

UNLV @ Arizona: Big win over the weekend for the Rebels, as they upset Louisville again. This one wouldn't be as big, but still important.

Siena @ Georgia Tech: The Saints are gonna be one of those mid-majors you know are good but don't have the resume to back it up. They really need this one.

Western Kentucky @ South Carolina: Same as above

Missouri @ Vanderbilt: The loser may look back on this one in March and see it as one that got away.

Old Dominion @ Richmond: The mid-major game of the night. I love finding gems like this :) okay, I'll stop being a nerd.

Oklahoma State @ Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane gets to prove themselves before C-USA play.

Northern Iowa @ Iowa State: Another game between two teams that could be fighting for a tournament spot come March.

Arkansas @ Oklahoma: So much for OU remaining an elite team when Blake Griffin left...

San Diego State @ San Diego: Okay, I understand nobody cares about this one (but they could both be really good mid-majors!!!!)... time to stop.

Season Preview: ACC/Big 10 Challenge

2009-11-30T10:41:00.001-08:00

Due to the lack of decent matchups on Monday, I instead present to you my preview of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. It's another year of the pointless made for ESPN event that everybody makes a much bigger deal over than it actually is. Okay, maybe I'm just upset that Purdue got killed in their game last year. It always provides some good matchups to look forward to. Here are my sneak peaks and picks for each game:

Mon., Nov. 30th

Penn State @ Virginia: A game that doesn't really mean anything but will help decide which conference wins anyway. Virginia has the "better" losses so far.

Virginia 68, Penn State 64

Tues., Dec 1st

Wake Forest @ Purdue: I'm guessing when this game was scheduled, people still thought Jeff Teague and James Johnson would be in Wake uniforms. Bottom line, Purdue is the better team and should win this game.

Purdue 80, Wake Forest 67

Northwestern @ NC State: NC State is 5-0, but they haven't beaten anybody, and NU has wins over Notre Dame and Iowa State without Coble. I'll take the Wildcats.

Northwestern 65, NC State 59

Maryland @ Indiana: The Terps did not look all that impressive, but will be good enough to defeat the Hoosiers, who are at least a year away from competing for a tournament spot.

Maryland 80, Indiana 70

Virginia Tech @ Iowa: The worst team in the Big 10 vs. not the worst team in the ACC. I'll take the latter.

Virginia Tech 67, Iowa 52

Michigan State @ UNC: Likely the best game of the challenge. Michigan State got killed last year, but this isn't nearly the same UNC team as last year. Namely, they're not going to run people off the court. Michigan State will have the advantage on the perimeter. However, the Spartans have struggled with turnovers in big games up until this point. That and the fact that this game is in Chapel Hill makes this a more even game than it looks. The Spartans will not create a lot of turnovers defensively, but they do a good job of forcing opponents into bad perimeter jumpers, and I would expect them to force the Heels to make shots to beat them. That, plus the fact that UNC has had turnover problems of their own, convinces me that Sparty will gain revenge from last year's slaughter(s).

Michigan State 81, UNC 77

Wed, Dec 2nd

Illinois @ Clemson: I had a feeling the Illinin were going to win this game, but that was before the loss to Bradley. Plus, it's at Clemson. Advantage Tigers

Clemson 78, Illinois 71

Minnesota @ Miami (FL): This is one of those swing games that will determine the outcome of the challenge. Miami gets to prove if they're for real.

Minnesota 76, Miami 74

Boston College @ Michigan: BC has not looked good at all early. Manny Harris should dominate against a somewhat suspect Eagle defense.

Michigan 85, Boston College 71

Florida State @ Ohio State: Another game that could come down to the wire. Buford and Diebler will need to hit some big shots to win.

Ohio State 73, Florida State 66

Duke @ Wisconsin: Two reasons to believe Wisconsin could pull off the upset. One, the Badgers will not get killed on the boards as badly as UConn did against Duke. Secondly, Bo Ryan will have his guys prepared and Wisconsin will keep the game slow and low-scoring. However, Duke is simply too talented to lose this game. At least, I think so.

Duke 70, Wisconsin 63

FINAL RESULT: Big Ten wins, 6-5

Weekend of Nov. 28th Preview

2009-11-27T20:12:00.000-08:00

Beat Florida State? Eh. Beat Michigan State? Okay, now we're talking. Florida shook up the college basketball world Friday night, knocking out the Spartans 77-74, and the Gators are now 5-0. They got Michigan St. to turn the ball over 22 times and go 2 of 12 behind the arc, which made up for the large rebounding gap. Are the Gators legit? It sure seems like it. Can they compete for the SEC East title? It's a crowded division, but neither Kentucky nor Tennessee have looked particularly dominating. Only time will tell. As for Michigan State... I'm not worried about them. If this becomes a habit, we'll talk again.

It takes a pretty significant event to out-headline Duke-UConn. I actually thought this was a pretty sloppy game. Duke shot below 30% but annihilated UConn on the boards which gave them plenty of second chances. The Huskies simply couldn't put the ball in the bucket, whether from the outside (no threes for the ENTIRE game!), at the baskey, or at the line. It appears the Huskies will have problems rebounding for much of the year, putting that much more pressure on Dyson an Walker to score consustently. They didn't tonight, and the UConn offense struggled as a result.

In other news, the finals of the 76 and Old Spice Classic are set. Marquette was efficient, quick, and deadly on offense and put Michigan away. They'll get an interesting matchup against a Florida State team that is much bigger inside and will not allow easy layups in the paint. I'm guessing the Eagles will need to hit some outside shots to win this one. In Anaheim, West Virginia took down Texas A&M once Desean Butler woke up. They'll take on (drum roll please) Cinderella wonders Portland, who won their semi-final over Minnesota and get a shot at making their claim to win the WCC. As in, beat Gonzaga. Last time someone other than the Zags won the WCC, Marion Jones was actually a legitimate athlete (zing!!!). An upset over WVU would have tremendous implications.

Saturday, Nov. 28

Game of the Night:

Louisville v. UNLV: This is a somewhat intriguing game, if only because the Rebels won last year in Louisville. The Cardinals will look to return the favor this afternoon. Louisville has looked less than stellar so far this year, but the Wildcats have really been challenged themselves with a tough schedule so it's okay (that's a joke. Ha ha. This is the only Louisville road game until early January). UNLV has beaten some decent mid-majors but this will easily be their biggest game to date. With absolutely no evidence to back this up, I will pick Louisville to return the favor and win this year.

Pick: Louisville 88, UNLV 74

La Salle v. Villanova: Maybe a decent matchup... maybe

Massachusetts v. Michigan St., Rutgers v. Florida: See, now why couldn't they have set it up so the Gators/Spartans matchup is for the championship of the Legends Classic and not a first round game?

Boston College v. Providence: So much for BC being a surprise team in the ACC.

St. John's v. Temple: These are a couple of teams you can name-drop at parties as potential sleepers and get some "ooh"s and "aah"s.

Presbyterian v. Southern: Both teams are 0-5. However, neither one has played a home game, so I'll cut them some slack. And they've both played a lot of tough opponents. Okay, they both suck. Come on, people, I'm trying to help these guys out.

Sunday, Nov. 29

76 Classic Final:

West Virginia v. Portland: This matchup is just too good to pass up. The Pilots have been on e of the most offensively efficient teams in the country up until this point... high effective FG%, low turnover %. They have some decent size and they crash the boards well. And these past two games have probably been their best defensive games of the season. Can they beat the Mountaineers? I don't know. They haven't faced as good a scorer as Butler yet this year. Minnesota had athleticism on the wings, but not like this. The thing about West Virginia is they can hurt you in so many ways, especially with Ebanks back. I think this is either a blowout for WVU or a really close game. And I men really close.

Pick: West Virginia 83, Portland 80

Others:

Old Spice Classic:

Marquette v. Florida State: Not quite as intriguing as the 76, although still fun to think about.

Michigan v. Alabama, Xavier v. Baylor, Creighton v. Iona: The first team fir each game should win. And if not, well, they've got some major problems. Maybe not Xavier, but definitely the other two.

76 Classic:

Minnesota v. Texas A&M: This is why preseason tournaments are awesome. Even third place games get good matchups and mean something.

Clemson v. Butler/UCLA: Both teams could really use a legitimizing non conf win.

Nevada v. UNC: Here's hoping this one's a good game.

Nebraska v. USC: Probably would be more fun if it was football. Even then...

Friday, Nov. 27 in College Basketball

2009-11-27T08:27:00.001-08:00

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! Most of you were probably watching football (to be honest, so was I!) but hopefully you were able to catch some good basketball. Creighton and Michigan went to OT, and although the Bluejays played some inspired basketball at the end, Michigan shut them down in the overtime period and won. They'll take on Marquette today, who played Xavier even for most of the game but was able to pull away late. On the other half of the bracket, Alabama pulled out a close one over Baylor, and Florida State got all it could handle from Iona but advanced. In Anaheim, Clemson found out it's a little more difficult to run for 40 minutes against a quality opponent and fell to Texas A&M. West Virginia awaits the Aggies in the semis. Also, Minnesota upset Butler off some big three point shots late. However, the big story of the night was the demise of UCLA, who suffered their worst loss of the Ben Howland era to Portland. Don't get me wrong, the Pilots are a decent team, but this definitely isn't the UCLA of old, particularly offensively. So now on to today:

Game of the Night:

Preseason NIT final:

UConn v. Duke: After a one day absense, the NIT preseason tournament is back, and this final looks to be a good one. Maybe. See, the thing is, I'm not sure how well Duke matches up in this game. Their strength is inside, but UConn certainly didn't have any problems on the glass on Wednesday against a pretty good rebounding team. Duke has Singler, but UConn counters with a taller and more athletic Stanley Robinson. And if Arizona St. was able to get to the rim on Duke like they did in the 1st half, then how are they gonna stop Dyson and Walker? I'm pretty sure the game will be closer than my prediction. I'm just not sure how to justify that.

Pick: UConn 85, Duke 68

Others:

Old Spice Classic:

Michigan v. Marquette: Just finishing up as I type. If Marquette doesn't win, well, they've certainly looked like the better team. Michigan threw 1-3-1 and 2-3 zones in the 2nd half and while Marquette struggled early, they pulled it together and never gave up the lead. Bottomline: Marquette was the more athletic team, and Michigan (other than Manny Harris) had no answer.

Alabama v. Florida State: We could see a Bama-Marquette final on Sunday. Raise your hand if you picked that. I shouldn't see any hands.

Creighton v. Xavier: Neither mid-major could pick up a good non-conf win, so it's a fight to the death instead, where the winner's at-large hopes are still alive. Actually, Xavier will have some games vs. Dayton to prove themselves. The Bluejays are running out of quality opponents on their schedule.

76 Classic:

West Virginia v. Texas A&M: No Ebanks means this is probably the Aggies' best shot at getting a marquee win. Unless they want to take down KU or UT in conf, which I would not recommend relying on.

**EDIT** Ebanks is playing.

Minnesota v. Portland: The Pilots are one win away from having enough decent wins to be in the at-large discussion in March, provided they don't lose any cheapies. And if they don't get this one, they still have @ Washington and two vs. Gonzaga to prove themselves.

Butler v. UCLA: A better sounding matchup than it actually is.

Las Vegas Invitational:

Illinois v. Utah: Don't forget about this one, and do NOT sleep on the Illini. Paul and Richardson have added a new dimension to this Illini offense.

Michigan St. v. Florida: This is the best non-tournament matchup of the day. I really, really believe the Gators are gonna give Sparty a good fight tonight.

South Padre Invitational:

Old Dominion v. Missouri: My pick for underrated game of the evening.

Thursday, Nov. 26 in College Basketball

2009-11-26T07:34:00.000-08:00

Thanksgiving, college b-ball style:

I'm thankful for being able to watch Gonzaga outlast Cincy down the stretch behind some big plays by Robert Sacre and some stifling defense (and if it were me, I'd be looking to get him the ball more often... having a 7 footer with touch around the paint is a very, very good weapon).

I'm thankful for Arizona St. and Stanford, who, although they didn't win, at least played like they have some pride (unlike other Pac-10 schools so far this year).

I'm thankful that Wisconsin beat Maryland and somehow shot over 45% from beyond the arc after shooting horrendously from there in the previous two games. I am not thankful, however, that the Badgers probably will not crack the top half of the conference, meaning for my Boilers, every single conference game is going to be a challenge to win.

I'm thankful for UConn, who looked dominant against LSU yesterday.

I'm thankful for mid-majors who continue to beat OU.

I'm thankful that Vandy got a decent win out of Maui. Arizona's got some serious work ahead of them if they want to be a tournament team.

I'm thankful to be able to watch the greatest sport on Earth today.

All is good.

Game of the Night:

76 Classic:

Minnesota v. Butler: How often is it that we get a first round tournament game as the game of the night? Okay, fairly often I guess. But still... the Bulld ogs have looked fairly beatable over their first few games. They've survived, but it hasn't been pretty at times. Shooting 28% from the field again isn't gonna get it done. Meanwhile, Minnesota has cruised through their first three games and gets their first real test today. Considering Minnesota's athleticism on the wings with Rodney Williams and Damion Johnson, Butler will have to execute their offense and make shots more than they have had to in previous games. I'll take Minnesota in a minor upset.

Pick: Minnesota 73, Butler 67

Others:

76 Classic:

Texas A&M v. Clemson: The Tigers have been running people out of the gym lately. Let's see if they are for real.

Portland v. UCLA: I would say this is a trap game for the Bruins, but that implies they are the better team.

West Virginia v. Long Beach State: WVU is still without Ebanks... may not hurt them tonight, but I think they'll need him to win this tournament.

Old Spice Classic:

Creighton v. Michigan: Important game for both teams, especially the Bluejays, who could use some good out of conference wins.

Marquette v. Xavier: A couple of rebuilding schools. Time to find out if either can play.

Alabama v. Baylor: Should be a competitive game if nothing else. The Bears have looked strong early.

Florida St. v. Iona: Definitely don't think the Noles should've gotten pounded at Florida. They can take out their aggression today.

Wed, Nov. 25th in College Basketball

2009-11-25T08:45:00.001-08:00

Varez Ward went down in warmups, but the only real impact it had was it allowed the Horns to show off their backcourt depth. Three guards scored in double figures and Damion James had 20 as Texas knocked out Pitt 78-62. The Panthers starting backcourt shot 10 for 39 and, while Pitt actually had the lead at the end of the 1st half, were just overmatched down the stretch. In Maui, Cincinnati beat Maryland in a game that really wasn't as close as the score showed, and Gonzaga got good production from guards Matt Bouldin and Stephen Gray as the Zags went up big early on Wisconsin and held on in the 2nd half. The games in Maui, plus the continuation of the Preseason NIT, set up the big games for tonight.

Game of the Night:

Maui Invitational final:

Gonzaga v. Cincinnati: These seem like two pretty evenly matched teams to me. I think Cincy has an advantage on the perimeter. Bouldin, Gray, and Demetri Goodson will have their hands full trying to stop Vaughn, Stephenson, and the other guards Cincy will throw out there. Then again, Yancy Gates hasn't faced a front line that's this good either. Gonzaga seems to do their best when they sit in their 2-3 zone and let the bigs control the paint. The Bearcats have struggled from the outside all year, and that will be their downfall tonight.

Pick: Gonzaga 70, Cincinnati 66

Others:

Preseason NIT:

Arizona St. v. Duke: The Blue Devils have looked outstanding this year, albeit against vastly inferior opponents. The Sun Devils are undefeated, which is good enough to make them one of the best teams in the Pac-10 so far (isn't that kinda sad?).

LSU v. UConn: The Huskies revamped frontcourt will be tested tonight, as LSU is getting 33 points and 20 rebounds a game from Storm Warren and Tasmin Mitchell.

Maui Invitational:

Maryland v. Wisconsin: Pretty solid 3rd place game if you ask me. Vasquez has gotta start putting the ball in the bucket if Maryland wants to do anything this year.

Vanderbilt v. Arizona: Nic Wise woke up last night in the Wildcats OT win over Colorado. Vandy's a significantly bigger (and better) team, though, than the Buffs.

Cancun Challenge:

Stanford v. Kentucky: Is it sad when Stanford's win over Virginia the other day is arguably the biggest win the Pac-10 has had this year?

Tuesday, Nov. 24th in College Basketball

2009-11-24T07:12:00.001-08:00

What a great night to be a Purdue fan! The Boilers and Vols were pretty much even in the stat sheet and the scoreboard. Purdue's mini 8-0 run late in the 2nd half gave them the lead, and they would hold on as Wayne Chism's game winning jumper missed right. Chism led the way in the paint for Tennessee with 24 points against a Purdue frontcourt that was in foul trouble all night long. E' Twaun Moore came up big for Purdue and took over offensively, putting in 22 points on 8 of 15 shooting. My Boilers found a way to win at the end and this will be a big confidence booster for the team going forward.

Meanwhile, Iowa held Texas close and actually led at one point in the 2nd half, but Pittman and the Texas guards were too much and the Longhorns blew Iowa out. Cincinnati took down a ranked Vanderbilt team. Vaughn struggled with foul trouble and Stephenson was okay, but Yancey Gates came through in a big way with 16 points as Cincy put together a big run early and never looked back. On the other side of the Maui bracket, Gonzaga staged a furious 2nd half comeback to edge Colorado, and Wisconsin grinded out a victory over Arizona. In other games, Northern Iowa got a much needed win over Boston College, and Pitt advanced, setting up this matchup for tonight:

Game of the Night:

CBE Classic Final:

Texas v. Pitt: There's a chance the Cincy/Maryland game will be closer, but I'm more intrigued by a game featuring a (somewhat) proven Texas squad and a very much unproven Pitt team. The Panthers have looked good this year. Ashton Gibbs has been the leader early. Pitt will look to slow the game down and grind out a victory, and unlike Iowa, they have some size inside to handle Dexter Pittman. The key to Texas' success, though, is the variety of offensive options they have. The Longhorns have a multitude of guards alongside James and Pittman in the frontcourt who can score. At the end of the day, there's just too much speed and talent for Pitt to handle.

Pick: Texas 81, Pitt 64

Others:

Maui Invitational:

Maryland v. Cincinnati: ACC power vs. Big East power. Gates could have another big day inside, but I think this will be won by whoever has superior guard play.

Wisconsin v. Gonzaga: The other semi-final. The Badgers probably lead the nation in "ugly wins" over the past 5 years or so.

Florida St. @ Florida: Annual rivalry has basketball significance as well.

Monday, Nov. 23 in College Basketball

2009-11-23T09:31:00.000-08:00

The first major weekend in college basketball was relatively overshadowed by football, both of the college and professional variety. That means you missed a VCU upset over Oklahoma and a bunch of ranked teams beating down cupcakes. Except for Butler. And Louisville, to a lesser extent. Sunday featured a few other decent games, including a Kansas State upset over Dayton off of 26 points from Jacob Pullen, Villanova getting a game from Ole Miss in the 1st half before pulling away early in the 2nd to win the Puerto Rico title, Miami beating South Carolina for the Charleston Classic title (5-0 isn't too bad either), and Tennessee and Purdue advancing in the Paradise Jam, but through different circumstances (more on that later). Monday begins Feast Week, which means if you're not excited about college basketball now, you need to be. The Maui Invitational starts today, and while the field isn't as strong as in years past, it should be very competitive. Other tournaments are starting or finishing up and we'll get our first look at a couple of Top 25 teams, like Texas. Here's what's on the Monday slate:

Game of the Night:

Paradise Jam Final:

Purdue v. Tennessee: The Vols limp into the championship game after shooting 37% from the field and 3 of 12 from three but beating DePaul by 4. Purdue, meanwhile, shut down St. Joseph and knocked them out early in the 2nd half with a barrage of threes. Tennessee is capable of putting massive amounts of points on the board with their full court press, but Purdue has the ball-handling and passing skills necessary to break the press consistently. The Boilers will likely try to slow the game to more of a half-court pace, and if they do that I think they'll have the advantage, as they probably execute better in the half-court than the Vols do. If Tennessee is able to speed up the game and get some turnovers, though, this could be a long game.

Pick: Purdue 69, Tennessee 66

Others:

Maui Invitational:

Cincinnati v. Vanderbilt: No ranked teams in this tournament, but plenty of teams around the same level. These are both teams that received their fair share of preseason hype, meaning I want to see if either are legit.

Arizona v. Wisconsin: This should be an interesting match-up of teams that were depleted by graduation/the draft and are looking to rebuild quickly.

Paradise Jam Consolation:

Northern Iowa v. Boston College: I know, I know, it's early, but in this blog, we're always thinking about March, and both of these teams really don't need another loss.

DePaul vs. St. Joseph's: I'll take the 5th place game over this one, actually.

CBE Classic

Texas v. Iowa, Wichita St. v. Pitt: Both of the favorites should take care of business tonight, setting up a fun final tomorrow. Then again, things never seem to turn out the way you expect. But I certainly don't expect a team that couldn't beat Texas-San Antonio to beat Texas-Austin. That's Texas if you don't know. But you should. Okay, I'll stop typing.

Season Preview: Preseason Tournaments, Part 2

2009-11-22T17:38:00.000-08:00

Feast Week is here! That means turkey, family, and... that's right, college basketball! (What did you think I was going to say? Football? Geez...) All kinds of Thanksgiving tournaments are taking place, and the biggest ones are highlighted and previewed here.

CBE Classic

Nov. 15-18, 23-24

Favorite: Texas. As mentioned before, they're so deep it's scary. They should roll through their semi-final and final games in this torunament.

Others: Pitt. They're 3-0, despite not looking particularly dominating in any of their games. Talent is there, but do they have the depth and scoring ability the Longhorns?

Sleeper: Wichita State. The Shockers are still probably too young to make much noise in this tournament, but they were one of the hottest teams in the MVC at the end of last year and could play a big role in the conference again this year.

Cancun Challenge

Nov. 18-21, 24-25

Favorite: Kentucky. They're easily the most talented team in the field.

Sleeper: None. If Kentucky doesn't win this I'll be shocked.

Las Vegas Invitational

Nov. 14-24, 27-28

Favorite: Illinois. Could go with Okie State, but I'll take the Illini, who have looked good in the early going. Brandon Paul and D. J Richardson add a new dimension to that offense.

Others: Oklahoma State is one of the most improved teams in the Big 12 and James Anderson has looked awfully good in their first few games. Should they meet the Illini in the final, they can and will give them a great game.

Sleeper: Utah. The Utes were not highly projected in the MWC and lost early to Idaho but got a good win over Utah St and will give Illinois a game.

Maui Invitational

Nov. 23-25

Favorite: Gonzaga. The traditionally strong field is replaced by a bunch of marginal tournament teams. I would have taken Maryland before the season, but I don't know if they have the size to match up with the Zags.

Others: Maryland will be competitive, along with Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Cincinnati. In reality, any one of these teams could take this tournament.

Sleeper: Arizona. Since I'm not picking Chaminade, of the power conference teams, the Wildcats have the least amount of hype but a lot of talented frosh and Nic Wise and Solomon Hill.

Great Alaska Shootout

Nov 25-28

Favorite: Oklahoma, although the loss to VCU makes them seem a little less dominating than they would have been.

Others: I think Washington State will be better than expected, and the Pac-10 is wide open at this point (and I mean wiiiiiide open. Like, win the conference open).

Sleeper: Houston. A lot of the focus in the C-USA has been on Memphis and Tulsa, but the Cougars could make some noise in conference as well.

76 Classic

Nov. 26-27, 29

Favorite: West Virginia. Nova has struggled, albeit against good teams, in their conference tournament. There are good teams in this tournament as well, and the Mountaineers will get some good tests next week.

Others: All the teams are either power conference at-large contenders or quality mid-majors. This includes UCLA, Minnesota, Butler, Texas A&M, and Clemson.

Sleeper: Portland. One of those quality mid-majors, they sit opposite of West Virginia and will get two winnable games before the final. They may be playing WVU for the title on Sunday.

Old Spice Classic

Nov. 26-27, 29

Favorite: Michigan. Another even field that could be won by several different teams.

Others: Florida State, Creighton, Marquette, Xavier, Alabama, and Baylor round out the big names.

Sleeper: Xavier. Dayton's gotten all the attention early, but something tells me the Musketeers will have a say in who the A-10 champ is. And don't be surprised if they win a few early here.

Legends Classic

Nov. 18-22, 27-28

Favorite: Michigan State. Neither of the other three teams should seriously compete for this title.

South Padre Invitational

Nov. 15-22, Nov. 27-28

Favorite: Mississippi State. Ugly loss early but they've rolled since. Vernardo has been dominant, averaging a double-double and 7.5 blocks a game.

Sleeper: Old Dominion. The Colonial's looked really good early this season, and the Monarchs were the preseason conference favorite. Bad news for the rest of the field.

Weekend of Nov. 21st - Preview

2009-11-20T12:25:00.002-08:00

Well, I guess the world knows who Wesley Johnson is. Boeheim placed Johnson at the 4 and he simply manhandled bigger, slower defenders en route to 25 points and 10 of 17 shooting. Meanwhile, UNC struggled from the field early in the 2nd half and Syracuse buried them in a hole that proved to big to break out of. UNC is big, talented, and deep, but don't have that one guy on the offensive end to take over the game. Johnson, on the other hand, can score early, often, and in a variety of ways. This team is also getting some good contributions from players like Rautins, Brandon Triche, and Scoop Jardine (we knew Onuaku was going to be good offensively anyway). Syracuse was obviously very underrated and will be a threat come Big East play.

That wasn't the only important game on Friday, though. Ohio State rebounded with a good win vs. Cal. The Bears could really, really use a healthy Theo Robertson. Dayton put up a good fight but Villanova pulled it out with the help of Corey Fisher and 18 points. Georgia Tech and Ole Miss picked up good wins in their preseason tournaments, and DePaul and St. Joseph's both won in minor upsets.

So it's time for the first weekend preview of the year! Conference tournaments really heat up during Feast Week, but this weekend's got some good matchups in store. Expect an update on Sunday when more games are known.

Saturday:

Game of the Night:

Ohio St. vs Michigan (football): With the college football season wrapping up, college basketball has chosen not to interfere and as a result, there really aren't any marquee matchups. And actually, Oregon v. Arizona is probably the bigger game this weekend. Screw it, let's stop talking college football.

Oklahoma @ VCU: Trap game for the Sooners. They look good so far with Warren running the show, but quality opponents have not come up yet.

Siena @ Temple: Always happy when the Saints get a decent matchup. Watch 'em while they're playing quality opponents.

Utah St. @ Northeastern: Fun mid-major matchup.

Southern Illinois @ UNLV, Houston @ Nevada, Oregon @ Portland: A bunch of mid-majors I want to keep on my radar, and Oregon. Because the Pac-10 needs some decent wins, and quick.

Sunday:

Game of the Night:

Puerto Rico Tip Off Final:

Villanova v. Ole Miss: A couple of decent matchups on TV tonight, but I'll go with the Wildcats/Rebels matchup. A team that everyone expected to be good (Nova) vs. a team that hasn't gotten much preseason attention but is talented and very capable of winning this game (Miss). While Nova has relied primarily on Corey Fisher to carry their offense these past two games, Ole Miss has four guys that can all carry the offense on any given night: Murphy Holloway, Chris Warren, Eniel Polynice, and Terrico White. This should be a great matchup of two talented backcourts. Although I've been hyping up the Rebels recently, I'll take the Wildcats, who are better defensively than anybody the Rebels have faced so far this year and should slow them down enough to take home the W.

Pick: Villanova 82, Ole Miss 75

Others:

Purdue v. St. Joseph's: The Hawks pulled off the upset over BC last night and are looking to make it two for two. Returning seniors Darrin Govens and Garrett Williamson have joined with freshman Carl Jones and forward Idrus Hilliard to form the bulk of the offense. St. Joe's hung with the versatile BC Eagles but should have a tougher time scoring against a defensively sound Boilermaker team.

Tennessee v. DePaul: The other half of the Paradise Jam semis. We'll see if Tennessee runs the Blue Demons off the court like they have with the rest of their competition this year.

Dayton v. Kansas St.: The consolation game in Puerto Rico may be as fun as the final, however less talented.

Miami v. South Carolina: Both teams could really use an early season quality non conf victory.

Friday, Nov. 20th in College Basketball

2009-11-20T12:25:00.001-08:00

Although today's top games involve the same teams as last night, there are plenty of great matchups on this Friday, including another game between two ranked opponents, two under the radar schools, and some good mid-major/major conference matchups.

Games of the Night:

CvC Finals

UNC vs. Syracuse: It was tough to get a good read on the Heels last night. They alomst blew their dominating lead once Ohio St started hitting from the outside, but they did dominate athletically and in the paint for the vast majority of that game. Meanwhile, the Orange took Cal to the woodshed yesterday on the back of Scoop Jardine and Wesley Johnson. It will be interesting to see how UNC does against a more dynamic team that is shooting the ball well right now. Guys like Rautins, Johnson, and Jardine should make UNC pay for open outside shots. Will size dominate again, or can Syracuse negate that with their 2-3 zone and athleticism on the wings? I think UNC's size is too much in the paint for Syracuse and they win a close one.

Pick: UNC 77, Syracuse 73

Ohio State vs. Cal: The early game features a couple of perimeter oriented teams. The difference? Cal has no one to match up with Evan Turner. With no Marcus Gilyard-type player to slow down Turner, and with Theo Robertson out, Cal will rely on Jerome Randle to take over the game again. He will get his, but in the end I think the Buckeyes offense goes back to the level it was at before UNC and they pick up a solid non-conf win.

Pick: Ohio St 81, Cal 71
Others:

Dayton v. Villanova: The Flyers look to go 3 for 3 against ranked opponents. And they're one win away from getting this b-ball fan (and plenty of others) on their bandwagon for the rest of the year.

Georgia Tech v. George Mason: The Yellow Jackets get a solid non-conference win. The big 3 for GT: Lawal, Favors, and Shumpert, all played well and GT got to the line early and often (although they still didn't shoot them well). GT should fight for a tournament spot in the middle of the ACC.

Ole Miss v. Kansas St.: A slightly under the radar game featuring two schools who I think are tournament teams.

St. Joseph's v. Boston College: DePaul/Northern Iowa turned out to be a pretty good game, but this should be the best first-round matchup of the Paradise Jam. Or maybe BC will blow them out. I don't know.

Thursday, Nov. 19th in College Basketball

2009-11-19T11:25:00.000-08:00

So what happened last night? Well, Butler and Northwestern fought early but once the Bulldogs shut down Michael Thompson's threes Northwestern's offense went down the tubes and Butler never really looked back. Texas cruised by Western Carolina, and Florida St., Florida, Wake Forest, and Wisconsin all won handedly as well. The best game of the night by far was Utah squeaking out a 1 point win over Utah State on the back of 22 points by junior guard Carlon Brown. Thursday actually has less games overall but conference tournaments start today, which means lots of good matchups, including the night games:

Games of the Night:

Coaches v. Cancer semifinals

Syracuse v. Cal: The first game features two teams heading in different directions in terms of preseason predictions. The Orange lost an exhibition game to a Division II squad but have looked dominant in the early CvC games. Onuaku is taking more of a leadership role after the perimeter losses Syracuse suffered in the offseason. Meanwhile, Cal was one of the expected Pac-10 favorites and cruised through their first two games (well, Murray State gave them a game) on the play of their standout guards Randle and Chritopher and forward Theo Robertson. I think Cal's not quite as good as expected, and Syracuse is going to be better than some think, but that's not enough to make me pick the Orange.

Pick: Cal 72, Syracuse 65

UNC v. Ohio State: A Big Ten fan told me at the beginning of the season that he thinks Ohio State can be a Top 5 team. You know what? I just might agree with him. Evan Turner does a bit of everything offensively and gets William Buford and Jon Diebler open shots, which they haven't been missing early on. Plus there's plenty of reasons not to pick UNC: Larry Drew could struggle in his first true test at the point, Thompson, Zeller, and Davis may struggle initally to establish consistent offense, perhaps this team is not built to run like the previous UNC dynasty was... who knows at this point.

Pick: Ohio State 76, UNC 72

Others to watch:

Dayton v. Georgia Tech: Finished this afternoon. The Flyers got what they needed to win: good offensive contributions from the bench, especially from the outside, and good defense. It didn't hurt that Lawal had 8 turnovers for the Yellow Jackets (26 overall). It's going to be a learning process for Paul Hewitt's young team.

George Mason v. Villanova: First Round Puerto Rico tip-off action is going on as I post. Early on Mason has been limiting the Nova guards offensively and has led most of the half. Nova is getting to the line but is having trouble making free throws. This would be a huge win for GMU and a legitimizing game for the Colonial.

Indiana v. Ole Miss: IU won't be as bad as last year, but they won't be all that good either. First test for the Rebels as well.

La Salle v. South Carolina: Don't let this late Charleston Classic slip by your thoughts. Both up and coming teams, and too much Devan Downey is never a bad thing. Unless you're playing the Gamecocks, of course.

Wed, Nov. 18th in College Basketball

2009-11-18T07:20:00.000-08:00

24 hours of college basketball is over, and while I didn't pull an all-nighter like I was hoping (real life intervened... geez) I was still able to catch a lot of games and write down some observations. That includes Kansas actually looking inept offensively, Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers pretty much willing Michigan State to victory, UCLA and Georgetown struggle, and a couple of MAAC teams that should have some very good battles come conference season. They will all be blogged, don't worry, but for now let's talk about today, which is a pretty slow day in college hoops. Don't fret... Thursday's looking real good.

Game of the Night:

Butler @ Northwestern: Butler gets tested again early in the season. Butler already has had one scare against a much weaker Davidson team but now draws a pesky (albeit hurt) Northwestern team with annoying 1-3-1 trap zone and the always fun to watch Princeton offense. NW is down a couple wings with Kevin Coble and Jeff Ryan out for the season, but will still play hard and compete, and their defense is so unique that it's a pain to play against. They may struggle to score, however, and Butler should win a slow-paced game.

Pick: Butler 64, Northwestern 52

Others to watch:

Utah vs. Utah St. - Fun rivalry game between two mid-majors, one that should be good (Utah) and one that could be very good (Utah St.).

Oakland vs. Wisconsin - Oakland could be a decent team in the Summit this year... okay, fine, just watch Texas blow out Western Carolina. That's the best I got tonight.

Tuesday, Nov. 17 in College Basketball

2009-11-17T17:26:00.000-08:00

This is the daily feature of the blog. Each night, recaps of games from the night before, followed by a small preview of upcoming games for the day. Since this is the first of the year, I'll start by recapping some important weekend/Monday games:

Friday, Nov. 13th

Pretty much every ranked team played a cupcake and won (save for one school). Impressive debuts included: Kansas (beat Hofstra 101-65, Xavier Henry with 27 in his first college game), Michigan State (beat FL Gulf Coast 97-58 after a slow start), Duke (beat UNC Greensboro 96-62), Minnesota (beat Tennessee Tech 87-50), Illinois (beat SIU-Edwardsville 96-69. 96 points for U of I???). Notable close calls include Washington, who needed 30 points from Isaiah Thomas to beat Wright State 74-69, and UConn, who got 27 from Jerome Dyson in a 75-66 win over William & Mary. The one big upset of the night: Rider over Mississippi St., 88-74. Rider did shoot 10 of 16 from three, but my pick to win the SEC isn't looking so hot right now. Oh, and Arkansas won 130-68, with Rotnei Clarke shooting 13 for 17 on threes and scoring 51 points.

Saturday, Nov. 14th

Dayton 90, Creighton 80 - The Bluejays were up by as many as 10 in the first half but the Flyers righted the ship in the 2nd half and pulled away late to pick up the early-season win. Creighton, down two of its top forwards, went into the game in a zone and pressured Dayton out of their rhythm. Creighton also shot 56% in the first half. At the start of the 2nd, Chris Wright had his way, scoring 7 points, blocking a shot, and creating 3 fouls in the first two and a half minutes en route to 25 points overall. He will need to have those kinds of days when Dayton gets into funks offensively. Chris Johnson added 18 points and 15 rebounds. As for Creighton, they missed out on a great chance for an at-large win, and that could come back to haunt them in March.

Butler 73, Davidson 62 - The Bulldogs avoided an early-season disappointment by putting it together in the 2nd half after shooting 31% with 7 turnovers in the first 16.5 minutes. Gordon Hayward had 17 and Willie Veasley had 15.

Michigan 97, Northern Michigan 50 - Manny Harris had 18 points, 13 boards, and 10 assists... and this was with 8 minutes in the game. Michigan shot 57% from the field and they rolled.

Sunday, Nov. 15th

More Top 25 teams rolling over nobodies. UNC held off Valpo to win 88-77 and go 3-0, for what it's worth.

Monday, Nov. 16th

Kentucky 72, Miami (OH) 70 - I don't think John Wall anticipated needing to make a 15 footer to win in his college debut, but that's just what he did. Wall finished with 19 points and is already cementing the hero status Kentucky fans gave him thr moment he set foot on campus. Miami packed it in and prevented Wall and Bledsoe from driving much of the game, but the Wildcats still got 32 points in the paint and outrebounded the RedHawks by 12 (mostly due to Patterson and Cousins). Despite this, Miami (OH) shot 15 of 26 from three and jumped out to an 18 point lead in the first half. While they played better offensively today, Kentucky has looked very sloppy early on in the season. Probably all the youth trying to come together as one team (hey, someone warned you all these freshman on one team isn't going to go over so smoothly. Don't worry, I fully expect them to figure it out this year. At some point... maybe)

Western Kentucky 69, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 65 - Best 1st Round game of the Preseason NIT so far. After a quick start by the Hilltoppers, this game remained close the entire way. A. J Slaughter had 30 points on 10 of 16 from the field and WKU shot 51% from the floor compared to 42% for UW-Milwaukee.

Otherwise, Monday was mostly Top 25 teams winning tune-up games and minor upsets (such as Missouri St. over Auburn)

Tuesday:

Game(s) of the Night:

Memphis @ Kansas (St. Louis) - Look, it's the first daily preview and I'm already mired in indecision. We'll start with a rematch of the 2007 National Championship game (for what it's worth). Kansas looks like they could score over 100 points a night in every game they play. The key for Memphis is keeping up with the high-powered Jayhawk offense. Elliot Williams is good, and Wesley Witherspoon, Doneal Mack, and Roburt Sallie form a solid backcourt, but there's definitely a talent disparity between the two squads. Look for Kansas to pound it inside with Aldrich against a smaller Tiger team.

Pick: Kansas 90, Memphis 75

Gonzaga @ Michigan State - In my opinion, the better of the two games. Michigan State is not going to blow anyone out of the water with size or athleticism or shooting, but they do a lot of things very well and are a complete team. Well, except at center. Meanwhile, the Zags are attempting to replace a lot of key contributors from last year. Matt Bouldin will be the leader of this squad, as he was on Saturday vs. Miss Valley State. Gonzaga played a lot of guys in their first game and might have a deep rotation as Mark Few tries to find his regulars. Gonzaga, as always, has a tough non-conference schedule, with games still upcoming against Washington State, Wake Forest, @ Duke, Oklahoma, and @ Illinois, so we'll know what the Zags are made of by mid-January.

Pick: Michigan State 82, Gonzaga 70

Others to watch:

Temple @ Georgetown - Time to find if G-Town is for real, early. This isn't a big test, but Temple is the kind of team that can get you if you're not ready.

Arkansas @ Louisville - Might be a fun non-conference matchup between power conference schools. Louisville's season debut will be against an Arkansas team that is only dressing 8 guys due to suspensions.

Northeastern @ Siena - Bracket Busters in November. One of the top teams in the Colonial faces off against one of last year's cinderellas who is currently just outside the Top 25. Fun times.

Season Preview: Preaseason Tournaments

2009-11-16T19:26:00.001-08:00

First a quick update: my wrist surgery went well but I am currently typing with one hand, making this a very slow process. I am still blogging but it will be slower than before. The show must go on, right? Anyway, continuing on with season previews, here's a look at the major preseason tournaments starting this week. A part two will begin next week for Turkey Day preseason tournaments. And here we go:

Coaches v. Cancer:

Nov. 9-13, 19-20

Favorite: UNC. The Tar Heels had no problems in their first two games. Plenty of talent and depth is present, and Larry Drew and Marcus Ginyard looked fine. Still the most athletic team in this tournament.

Others: Ohio State. Evan Turner can't do it all, but he'll try. This team is right on the border of "scary good" right now.

Cal. If they're shooting well, they can beat anyone in the country. Probably the best backcourt in this tournament with Randle and Christopher.

Sleeper: Syracuse. It's evident that they lost a lot of talent and will be fairly thin across the board. But if Rautins shoots well and they get significant offense from guys like Wesely Johnson and Rick Jackson, they could surprise.

Preseason NIT:

Nov. 16-17, 25, 27

Favorite: Duke. Until a young UConn squad proves themselves, I'll go with the more proven Blue Devils. Duke looked just fine on Friday even with Nolan Smith and Mason Plumlee out. Scheyer and Singler will log plenty of minutes and carry this team.

Others: UConn. Every starter logged 30 or more minutes in Friday's win over William & Mary. Dyson will be the star, but Kemba Walker will be the key for this squad after losing A. J Price to graduation.

Sleeper: Western Kentucky. A. J Slaughter and Stephon Pettigrew give the Hilltoppers two effective outside shooters and will spread out teams in this tournament. Do they have the size to handle bigger teams, especially Duke and UConn?

Cancun Challenge

Nov. 18-25

Favorite: Kentucky. With Wall out on Friday, Eric Bledsoe and Patrick Patterson led the team. Lots of turnovers, but lots of talent on this Wildcat team.

Others: None. Oral Roberts, Rider, Virginia, and Stanford isn't really the kind of competition that will keep John Calipari up at night (although Rider did just beat Kentucky's biggest competition for the SEC crown, Mississippi St.)

Sleeper: Rider. They shot lights out to take down the Bulldogs on Friday and may challenge Niagara and Siena in the MAAC this year.

Puerto Rico Tip-Off

Nov 19-22

Favorite: Villanova. No struggles for the Wildcats on Friday. The guards will carry this offense, but forwards Mouphtaou Yarou, Antonio Pena, and Taylor King will have to provide some support offensively.

Others: Georgia Tech, Dayton, Mississippi, Kansas State. There's a lot of teams that could take out the Wildcats and win this tournament. My money would be on either the Flyers or the Yellow Jackets.

Sleeper: Mississippi. This team returns three guys who were all hurt last year but played significant minutes the year before. It will be interesting to see how the Rebels fare this week.

Charleston Classic

Nov. 19-22

Favorite: South Carolina. The Gamecocks lead this somewhat depleted field. Finding a 2nd scorer to complement Devan Downey will be key for the Gamecocks if they want to make the tournament this year.

Others: La Salle. The A-10 will show its depth here, as the Explorers are expected to be one of the better teams in this conference and this tournament.

Sleeper: Miami (FL). Dwayne Collins and co. will look to pick up the production of Jack McClinton after his graduation.

Paradise Jam

Nov. 19-22

Favorite: Purdue. The Boilers looked strong on Friday. They will be thin at forward but the backcourt depth is impressive. Watch for frosh Kelsey Barlow, who has impressed in the early season and will fight for minutes in a crowded backcourt.

Others: Tennessee. If these two teams meet in the finals, it will be a classic battle if tempo. Look for the athletic Vols to push the pace more often this season.

Sleeper: Boston College. The Eagles have lots of weapons offensively and good wings with Sanders and Raji. They could emerge from a crowded middle pack in the ACC this year, and this tournament should be a good test of their overall strength.

College Basketball Season Starts!!!

2009-11-09T07:34:00.000-08:00

Today is officially the first day of the college basketball season! The first week is pretty slow, with primarily warm up games for Top 25 opponents and other power conference schools. Some preseason tournaments start, but they are primarily initial round-robin games. Tournaments like Coaches v. Cancer have preliminary rounds but four schools automatically advance to the semi-finals. Since those don't take place until next week (and to a larger extent, the week after), this week is devoid of good matchups. Still, I hope to get started on weekday and weekend game previews as soon as possible. Here's what my schedule looks like over the next few weeks:

Today: This post, final Season Preview (hopefully)
Friday: Weekend games to watch
Sunday: Weekend recap, games to watch for upcoming week
Wednesday, Nov. 18: In-depth preseason tournament preview
Every day after: Daily recaps

A somewhat intense schedule, I know. We'll see if I can keep this pace up for the entire year. I figure this weekend and the next two weekends I should have plenty of time to watch and write about college basketball, so might as well use the time well. Enjoy!

Season Preview: Best of the Rest

2009-11-08T15:46:00.001-08:00

In my final season preview, I'll highlight some teams not in a power conference that might have a significant impact on how this season turns out. The vast majority of the 342 schools in Division I do not play in power conferences, and many times it's a few of those teams that make the compelling stories of the year. Here's how this is going to work: I'll highlight a few mid-major conferences that might send multiple teams to the NCAA tournament, and then I'll list a few schools from small conferences that could be important as well.

Atlantic 10: The A-10 has been ruled by Xavier the past few seasons, but there are still plenty of quality teams in this conference. This season, Xavier is in a bit of a reloading phase, and so the conference is wide open... unless, of course, Dayton just assumes Xavier's spot as the dominant team.

Dayton: The Flyers return most all of the important players on last year's squad, including league player of the year candidate Chris Wright. Depth and versatility is the name of the game for the Flyers, who have many different options in the frontcourt as well as depth at point guard. The key for Dayton will be outside shooting and offensive efficiency. If they can get better in both of those areas, this is the best team in the conference and a potential Sweet 16 team.

Xavier: It's difficult to bet against the 3 time defending conference champs, but when you lose three of your top players, there will be a rebuilding phase (short as it may be). Jason Love is the top returning scorer and becomes the new leader of the frontcourt. Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford will provide offensive spark and anchor the backcourt. It will be new faces in leadership roles for the Musketeers, but that shouldn't keep them out of the tournament.

Richmond: The Spiders played well at the end of last season and they return 4 starters, making them the best of the rest of the conference. Their Princeton offense is difficult to prepare for, but will they have the size to compete with Dayton and Xavier?

Others: La Salle, Duquesne, Temple

Mountain West: This conference was one big giant mess last year, with three teams finishing in a tie for 1st and another just one game back. The Mountain West has been somewhat crippled due to graduation, but there should be some decent teams and it should be a competitive conference again.

BYU: The only two all-conference selections returning this year both play for the Cougars. Jimmer Fredette and Jonathan Tavernari give BYU a quality guard and wing, respectively. Two other returning starters return to give BYU the best team in the conference (from preseason projections, anyway) and give Cougar fans hope they'll be able to get past the first round in the tournament this year.

UNLV: Transfers Derrick Jasper and Chace Stanback join Tre'Von Willis and a slew of freshman to a Rebel team that is experiencing a lot of turnover this season. The room to move up in the conference is there, but the question will be if UNLV can mesh quickly enough to make a tournament run. San Diego State: The Aztecs were one of those surprise mid-major teams that had few preseason expectations but made things interesting on Selection Sunday. They lose three of their top four scorers from last year, but they have one of the best recruiting classes in the conference coming in, including top 100 prospect Kawhi Leonard. They're in a similar spot to UNLV this season.

Others: New Mexico, Utah

Missouri Valley Conference: It wasn't that long ago (2005-06) that this conference sent 4 teams to the dance. While the conference may never hit that mark again, there's good reason to believe the MVC will send multiple teams to the tournament this season.

Northern Iowa: My favorites to win the conference this year. They are deep, and they spread the ball as well as anyone in the country. They return 9 of their top 10 scorers this year, including 1st team All-Conference forward Adam Koch, and they will look to expand on last year's tournament berth with a first round victory.

Creighton: While they lack depth in the frontcourt, this could be the best backcourt in the conference despite losing 2 key contributors, including conference player of the year Booker Woodfox. The Bluejays had a very good conference season last year, but their lack of a good non-conference win was their downfall. They'll have several chances this year against Dayton and Michigan to get a big win against a Top 25 team. In conference, Creighton should compete for the title again.

Others: Southern Illinois, Illinois State, Wichita State

The best of smaller conferences:

Butler: Last year was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs. If a conference championship and a 7 seed is a rebuilding season, what does this year bring? Butler spreads the ball very well and doesn't have a weak link in their starting five. Whether it's shooters like Zach Hahn, big men like Matt Howard, wings like Gordon Hayward, or guards like Shelvin Mack, this team complements one another very well. The question is, does this team have the athletes to advance beyond the Sweet 16?

Gonzaga: The Zags lost a lot of talent in the offseason, including Austin Daye to the draft and Jeremy Pargo and Matt Heytvelt to graduation. Matt Bouldin, Steven Gray, and Demetri Goodson will form the core of this team and will give the Zags a very talented backcourt. Unlike last year, Gonzaga has question marks in the frontcourt. They will be relying on role players and international players to provide some size and aid the guards offensively and defensively.

Memphis: Just because Cal's gone (along with Tyreke Evans, Robert Dozier, Shawn Taggart, and Antonio Anderson) doesn't mean the Tigers are completely devoid of talent. Guards Doneal Mack, Roburt Sallie, and Willie Kemp will join Duke transfer Eliot Williams as a formidable backcourt. In the frontcourt, JUCO transfer Will Coleman joins Wesley Witherspoon and Pierre Henderson-Niles to give Memphis some size (although they don't have a true 5). The Tigers should be the favorites in the C-USA again... unless some school called Tulsa has anything to say about that (more on that later).

Siena: Last year's small school cinderellas are back again, and with four starters returning again, the Saints will try to advance to the 2nd round for a third season in a row. Point guard Ronald Moore and wing Edwin Ubiles are the likely leaders. The Siena defense forces a lot of turnovers and will look to do the same again this year. The preseason expectations are there, as Siena finished just outside the Top 25, and several tough road games are in place vs. Georgia Tech and Northwern Iowa. It should be interesting to see how Siena fares this season.

Others who could surprise:

Tulsa - the main challengers to Memphis' C-USA dominance. Almost everyone is back from last year's squad that was 2nd best in the league.

Portland - The yearly challenger to take down Gonzaga in the WCC. Similar to Tulsa in that they return every key player.

Niagara - Remember these guys? They gave Siena a game last year in the MEAC final, and they should be back again this year.

Western Kentucky - The best cinderella story of the tournament last year. Orlando Mendez-Valdez is gone, but A. J. Slaughter and Steffphon Pettigrew are back.

Old Dominion - Favorites in the always competitive CAA. Gerald Lee is the guy that makes the Monarch engine run.

Nevada - Most talented team in the WAC, they return two all-conference performers in Luke Babbitt and Armon Johnson.

Akron - Looking for back-to-back MAC championships, they also have a challenging non-conference schedule.

Northeastern - You could probably put George Mason or VCU here to challenge Old Dominion... the Colonial will be fun this season

Oakland - Favorites in the Summit, they lost to Bradley in the finals of the CBI last year and bring back two time all conference player Derick Nelson

Utah State - 30 wins and four starters return? That classifies as significant.

North Texas - The Mean Green are looking to derail the Western Kentucky train in the Sun Belt.

College of Charleston - Favorites in a Stephen Curry-less Southern conference.

*This is just a small snippet of the teams I could talk about.

Season Preview: SEC

2009-11-07T08:28:00.000-08:00

The last power conference preview! Today it's the SEC. While this conference was worse than bad last year, the SEC looks to be much improved this year, due to young teams getting a year older and the majority of the top players staying in college. Oh yea, and this guy named John Calipari is coaching at Kentucky. Shall we continue?

The Favorites:

Kentucky: Let me just say that I think the Wildcats are the most intriguing preseason team in college basketball. With one hire the Wildcats went from likely NIT team to National Championship contenders. Calipari was taken away from Memphis after the Billy Gillespie mess, and with him came some of the top recruits in the country, including guard John Wall and 6-11 center DeMarcus Cousins. Both should start alongside Patrick Patterson, and Cousins should allow Patterson to move to the 3 and out on the wing where he should get more freedom to score in a variety of ways. Other freshman coming off the bench include big man and defensive stud Daniel Orton and guard Eric Bledsoe.

Despite all the hype surronding this Wildcats team, let's take a step back for a moment. Yes, they are talented, athletic, and skilled. But when has a team with this many freshman playing so many important minutes ever won the title? The returning players are essentially an NIT team minus Jodie Meeks. Sure, Patterson is very good, and Stevenson is solid at the 5, but the rest of these guys are basically role players. There is very little experienced leadership coming back. Due to that fact, and the number of question marks surrounding the young freshman, I am not going to pick Kentucky to win the SEC this year. That being said, I reserve the right to change my picks at any time (as always!)

Mississippi State: Yes, I am taking the Bulldogs to win the conference. Why? They return the best shotblocker in the country in Jarvis Vernardo, and one of the better point guards in the country in Dee Bost. Add in Ravern Johnson, a 40% shooter from three, and 2nd leading scorer Barry Stewart, and Mississippi State has plenty of backcourt experience returning. There's plenty of other contributors returning to a team that caught fire in last year's SEC tournament and took it all.

There is definitely a question as to where the ceiling lies for this Bulldogs team. Obviously, it's not as big as Kentucky's. Vernardo would do well to improve his game offensively to complement his status as a defensive player. As it stands, this team has a lot of experience returning and looks to be the strongest of the improved SEC West division.

Team that could surprise:

Vanderbilt: The SEC, like other major conferences, is somewhat muddled in the middle and many teams could emerge as tournament contenders. I'm going to take the Commodores, who return one of the few true centers in the league (and the nation) in A. J. Ogilvy. Excellent shooters Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley return as well, and incoming freshman John Jenkins has a reputation as a sharp shooter, so the threes will be flying in Nashville. Also, it's never fun to play in Vandy. The Commodore will surprise some people this year.

Team that could disappoint:

Kentucky: This is a no-brainer for me, only because expectations are so high. To some extent, I can't blame them... they got one of the best coaches in the college game and the clear #1 recruiting class in the nation. It's just a lot of pressure to put on youngsters, even if they're guys like John Wall who are ready for it. I think this is definitely a Sweet 16 team. I'm just not sure if they're a championship caliber team yet.

Picks:

SEC East

1. Kentucky: Still the best in this division.
2. Tennessee: They return all five starters, although I question how good this team can be overall.
3. Vanderbilt: Ogilvy and a host of outside shooters are ready to make a significant jump this season.
4. South Carolina: Difficult to pick against Devan Downey and four starters, but they'll have to find a 2nd scorer to replace Zam Fredrick.
5. Florida: Someone needs to take the leadership role Nick Calathes assumed last year, but the talent is there.
6. Georgia: Somewhat overmatched in a difficult division.

SEC West

1. Mississippi State: Some have been predicting Final Four for the Bulldogs. Seems a little optimistic to me, but SEC champ is not unrealistic.
2. Mississippi: The Rebels return three starters who were hurt last year. They will be deep and talented, especially in the backcourt.
3. Arkansas: Young team last year beat Texas and Oklahoma and will be ready for SEC play this season.
4. LSU: Lost their three top producers, but Tasmin Mitchell is back, and that should keep the Tigers from slipping too far.
5. Alabama: Anthony Grant will have this team ready in time, but not this year.
6. Auburn: Too much talent is gone and not enough talent replaces them.

Tournament teams:

Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Mississippi

Season Preview: Pac 10

2009-11-06T06:02:00.000-08:00

Two years ago the Pac-10 was arguably the best conference in the nation. This year, the conference is a shell of its former self, losing most of its big name talent to graduation and the draft. As always, that means lots of turnover on top of the conference and a big mess in the middle. Only two Pac-10 teams made the preseason top 25 poll, and they're names you wouldn't expect when you list traditional Pac-10 basketball powerhouses. In fact, those powerhouses, like UCLA and Arizona, will likely be fighting just to make the tournament this season.

The Favorites:

Washington: The Huskies are probably the closest thing to a title contender in the Pac-10 this season. Their backcourt of Isaiah Thomas, Abdul Gaddy, and Venoy Overton is, in my opinion, the best in the conference. The frontcourt is manned by wingman Quincy Pondexter, who made great strides offensively at the end of last season. However, forward Jon Brockman is gone, meaning the Huskies need to replace their best rebounder and inside scorer. Talented wing Justin Dentmon is gone too. Washington will have a good starting 5 this year but depth could be an issue, and they don't really have anyone to replace Brockman in the post (or Dentmon for that matter, although Pondexter could fill his production).

Cal: The Golden Bears will be in every game they play this year because they are one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. They return nearly every major component from a team that was #1 in 3 pt shooting percentage (almost 43% from three!). The backcourt remains completely intact from last year with Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher forming an excellent duo at 1 and 2 guard. Cal is not neccessarily small, although forwards Harper Kamp and Theo Robinson are coming back from offseason surgery. Jamal Boykin is a monster on the glass and should round out the starting five. The bench contains some solid players, like guard Jorge Gutierrez, but Cal seemed to run a short bench last year and will likely do the same this year.

Team likely to surprise:

Arizona: After Cal and Washington, the Pac-10 is wide, wide open this season. The Wildcats have some humongous shoes to replace in Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill, but they do return one of the best guards in the league in Nic Wise and have a star studded recruiting class coming in (thanks to USC and the Tim Floyd situation). While picking a team with so many new pieces to finish top three in the league may seem a little farfetched, let me remind you that the general consensus pick for 3rd place in the conference (UCLA) is losing their top four producers. That's when you know there's a little bit of mediocrity in the Pac-10. Also a candidate for this spot is Washington State, who gets an up-tempo coach in Ken Bone and has some nice pieces to play with for this upcoming season.

Team likely to disappoint:

UCLA: With so many teams having lowered expectations this year, it's difficult to choose a team that could finish below them. Oregon needs to have a good season to keep Ernie Kent's job intact. But I'll take the Bruins, who haven't lost this many important players since before their Final Four runs. There will likely be 7 freshman or sophomores fighting for significant playing time, and this team could run into some problems early. It's unreasonable (even by my leiniant standards this preseason) to expect them to finish anywhere below 5th in conference, but even that may mean an NIT bid this season.

Predicted Finish:

1. Washington: Most complete team in the conference. Over the long haul, that usually wins out.
2. Cal: Great knockout potential, but can they live up to the expectations?
3. Arizona: Probably a little outrageous, but there is no substitute for athleticism and talent.
4. Oregon State: The Beavers give hope for all the DePauls, Iowas, and North Carolina States of the world.
5. UCLA: It will be interesting to see who emerges on a team that doesn't have a clear leader at this point.
6. Washington State: Klay Thompson and DeAngelo Casto form a solid basis to build off.
7. Oregon: The Ducks will likely need to finish higher than this to save Ernie Kent's job.
8. USC: Hope is on the way next year, but program is currently in shambles after the Tim Floyd fiasco.
9. Arizona St.: No Harden? No Pendergraph? Back to square one for the Sun Devils.
10. Stanford: Most people aren't feeling the Cardinal this year.

Tournament Teams:

Washington, Cal, Arizona, UCLA

Season Preview: Big 10

2009-11-05T07:00:00.000-08:00

Ah yes, the Big Ten. My country. I feel like I know this conference the best since I watch these teams the most. That doesn't mean my predictions will be any good, but still... anyway, the Big Ten has become quite a formidable conference in just a few years, and after Michigan State's big tournament run last year, the top of the conference has proven they can compete with the big boys. 1 through 11, this conference is as deep as it gets in college basketball.

The Favorites:

Purdue: Come on... you didn't honestly think I wasn't gonna pick my Boilers to win the conference, did you? I will admit we may be small, we may have some depth issues, and we may not be the most athletic team out there. But last year when Purdue peaked, we took out a tough Washington team in what was basically a road game and then put up a good fight against a very, very good UConn team. And that was without Robbie Hummel at 100%. This year, he claims he's perfectly healthy, which is a scary thought.

We all know what Hummel can do when he's healthy, but they key will be the guys around him. JuJuan Johnson took a huge step up last year (I called that one, by the way) but needs to get stronger to take his game to the next level. He will also have to shoulder a bigger load in the paint now that Nemanja Calasan is gone and Sandi Marcius is out with a broken foot. E'Twaun Moore gets a ton of national praise and was our leading scorer, but he needs to be more selective with his shots. Lewis Jackson must mature another year at the point, and Grant needs to become the shooter he was two years ago. If all of that (or most of that) can happen, I truly believe this is a Final Four team. And the Final Four's in Indy. The sky's the limit.

Michigan State: It's difficult to pick against the National runners-up, especially when they return most of their production. Kalin Lucas is back. Raymar Morgan should be 100% healthy for the entire season. Durrell Summers and Chris Allen solidify the Spartan backcourt, and they should also have a slew of wings/power forwards to choose from in Morgan, Delvon Roe, and Draymond Green. Basically, this team goes 2 deep at every position and we should expect a decent spread of minutes again this year.

By far the biggest contributor leaving is Suton. He did so much for the Spartans, whether it's rebounding, defense, shooting, leadership. Michigan State has plenty of options to replace him, but no one will likely provide the production across the board that Suton did. They also lose guard Travis Walton who provided defense and leadership. From reading about Michigan State, I feel they are at a bit of a crossroads. They can move forward and make another title run, or fall back into that clutter 2nd tier pack of teams. It will be interesting to see how this team develops as the season progresses.

Team who could surprise:

Northwestern: I have two different routes I could take here. I could tell you Ohio State has the potential to be a top 5 team (somewhat out there, but also somewhat boring) or I could call for the Wildcats to make their first tournament appearance ever. I'll go with the latter. Northwestern returns almost every major piece from a team that was probably one win away from making the tournament last year. They'll have to find a point guard to replace Craig Moore, but if they can find a guy that can handle the ball somewhat and can shoot, the Wildcats will probably be better than last year. They were the most frustrating team to prepare for in the Big Ten last season, and after wins at Purdue and at Michigan State, they have knockout power. This is the year they will get it done.

Team who could disappoint:

Illinois: While most teams in the conference improved this season, I think the Illini are going to take a slight step back. They lost Trent Meachem and Chester Frazier, along with their defense and leadership. There are a few good freshman, but they will have to immediately step up and contribute. D. J. Richardson is very highly touted and should start right away, but Brandon Paul and Tyler Griffey will have to produce right away off the bench. Illinois must become less of a jump shooting team and start getting to the basket more. They have the tools to become a good offensive team, but in a deep league defensively, I think this young team will struggle.

Picks:

1. Purdue: A healthy Hummel will make all the difference in the world.
2. Michigan State: Was this team for real, or just last year's feel good story?
3. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have the potential to be a top 5 team. Evan Turner is the best player in the conference.
4. Michigan: They have the talent to jump up a spot of two from this position... if they can find a PG.
5. Minnesota: The definition of steady, you know what you're going to get from this team. 65 points a game, slow pace, good defense.
6. Northwestern: The element of surprise is gone this year. Will teams be able to adequately prepare for their style?
7. Illinois: Demetri McCamey needs to become a more consistent scorer instead of just showing flashes of greatness.
8. Wisconsin: I feel like this pick is going to come back and get me, but somebody has to finish 8th. The losses are too great this year.
9. Indiana: The youngsters will be good down the road, but too difficult of a conference this season.
10. Penn State: Teams will start doubling Talor Battle... and then tripling if they have to.
11. Iowa: Football team will likely stay undefeated longer than the basketball team.

Tournament Teams:

Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois

Season Preview: Big 12

2009-11-04T06:30:00.001-08:00

While other power conferences like the Big East, ACC, and Pac-10 were ravaged by the NBA draft, most of the big talent in the Big 12 chose to stick around, and as a result everywhere from 1st to 10th in conference should be highly contested. With two legit top 5 teams and National Championship contenders, and nine to ten teams that could make the tournament, the Big 12 is the best and deepest conference in the country. Like the Big East last year, there will likely be one or two teams that get some nice looking victories but end up on the wrong side of the tournament cut line due to poor performance in conference. Such is the nature of the beast this year in the Big 12.

The Favorites:

Kansas: Simply put, this is the clear #1 team in the nation. Everyone that contributed to this team last year returns. That includes top PG in the country Sheron Collins. That includes one of the best big men in the country in Cole Aldrich. That includes wings Tyshawn Taylor, Markieff Morris, and Maurice Morris. Oh, and if those guys don't work out, there's always frosh Xavier Henry and Thomas Robinson to help carry the scoring load. There's depth in the backcourt too, with Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed. There's really no weak point on this Jayhawks squad at the moment.

Now, the team has had to deal with their fair share of run-ins with the law. Morningstar has been suspended for the first semester after being arrested on suspected drunken driving. Tyshawn Taylor injured his finger in a fight with the school football team earlier this fall. Coach Bill Self is attempting to put these incidents behind his team and focus on basketball. As long as they're winning on the court, he shouldn't have too difficult of a time doing so.

Texas: Lots of talent returns, and lots of talent enters. Forward Damion James chose to stay in school and gives the Longhorns one of the best 3's in the country. Dexter Pittman is an absolute monster in the paint. Justin Mason was steady at the point. Gary Johnson, Varez Ward, and Douglas Balbay are solid backups. The only loss was three point specialist A. J. Abrams, and honestly, that's not always a bad thing, as Abrams bogged down the offense at times with his one-on-one showdowns and quick trigger for three pointers. The offense should be more spread out and should flow better this year.

The strength for Texas is in the backcourt. Jai Lucas, transfer from Florida, J'Covan Brown, star of the class of 2008 who is finally academically eligible, and frosh Avery Bradley join Mason, Balbay, and Ward in a fight for playing time. It's a good problem to have for sure. And with Pittman, Johnson, and James patroling the frontcourt, Texas is as close to a complete team as you're going to get. This is a top 5 team.

Team that could surprise:

Kansas State: Unlike other conferences where the middle is one big mess, I feel like there's a gap between the really good teams, the solid tournament teams, the fringe tournament teams, and the NIT and below teams. That means it can be difficult to envision scenarios where teams from those lower tiers make jumps up. That's not true for the Wildcats, who return two very talented guards in Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen and bring in uber-talented forward Wally Judge. Kansas State isn't getting a ton of press this year, but they have the potential to move up into the top 3 of the conference.

Team that could disappoint:

Oklahoma: Just like it's difficult to find sleepers, it can be difficult to guess which teams will not perform as well as expected. Maybe it's just because I want to see the good in every team... anyway, the team most likely to disappoint is the Sooners, simply because they relied so much on one player last year (Blake Griffin) and that man is gone this year. Guys like Juan Patillo and Tony Crocker are good role players, but not offensive leaders. That burden falls on young Willie Warren. I believe he's ready to take that step, but if he's not, OU will fall back, and in the slippery slope that is the Big 12, that could be more than just a few places in the standings.

Picks:

1. Kansas: Simply the most talent returning.
2. Texas: Everyone (including myself) expects big, big things out of the Longhorns this year.
3. Kansas State: Lots of returnees, decent amount of depth, and potent backcourt mean good things for the Wildcats.
4. Oklahoma State: One of the hottest teams in the country at the end of last year... but who will replace Eaton?
5. Oklahoma: Warren gets his opportunity to shine.
6. Missouri: They will be small, but they are dedicated to their style of play and will be fun to watch.
7. Texas A&M: Chinemelu Elonu is gone, but decent amount of talent still returns.
8. Iowa State: How far can Craig Brackins carry the Cyclones this year?
9. Baylor: Lots of turnover for the Bears this season, and in a dangerous conference. But the program is in good hands.
10. Texas Tech: Some good components, but this team needs to play some defense.
11. Nebraska: Got a lot out of a little last year... the conference is much better this season though.
12. Colorado: At least there's football... oh wait, maybe not.

Tournament Teams:

Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas A&M

Season Preview: Big East

2009-11-03T11:21:00.000-08:00

Last season, the Big East was the undisputed #1 conference in the land. With 7 teams making the tournament and 3 #1 seeds, the Big East was loaded from top to bottom. However, this year many of those teams lost their top players, meaning there has been a great deal of turnover at the top of the conference. It also means there will be plenty of movement in the middle of the conference throughout the year, as teams with young components mesh and thrive and others fall apart.

The Favorites:

West Virginia: My pick to win the Big East. They might have the best pair of wings in the country in Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler. The two averaged over 27 points per game between them last season and present many matchup problems across the board. If you include returning starter Wellington Smith, Kevin Jones, John Flowers, and Cam Thoroughman, you probably have one of the best frontcourts in the country.

In the backcourt, the Mountaineers have two legitimate starting PGs in Joe Mazzulla and Darryl Bryant. Casey Mitchell, a JUCO transfer, is expected to immediately fill the 2 guard role that opened after Alex Ruoff's graduation. All in all, this is a pretty complete team. Despite the lack of a true center, they go deep in the frontcourt and either Ebanks or Butler will likely have a smaller guy on them at the 3. This team was pretty solid defensively last year and I expect them to do the same again this year. All in all, West Virginia takes a big step up this season.

Villanova: There's no denying the Wildcats' talent in the backcourt. Scottie Reynolds made himself a household name last year with his Elite 8 heroics and should benefit greatly again from working off the ball. With Corey Fisher seeing some time at the 1, this allows Reynolds to focus on what he's good at: scoring. The two will be joined by three point specialist Corey Stokes to form the best backcourt in the conference. And that's with Reggie Redding out until mid-December.

The biggest question mark for Nova will be how they replace Dante Cunningham. Cunningham gave Nova a viable weapon on the wing and a potent scorer in the frontcourt. Replacing him will be returnee Antonio Pena, Duke transfer Taylor King, and freshman PF Mouphtaou Yarou. None of them have quite the skill set Cunningham had, but they should all provide offense in their own way. Depth could be slight problem as well in the frontcourt. These should be small issues and the Wildcats will be a Final Four contender again, but it does give reason to doubt their status as favorites in the Big East.

Team that could surprise:

Cincinnati: Picking out a surprise team is difficult due to the amount of uncertainty in the middle of the conference. UConn could be a pick here, but they already appear to have somewhat high expectations due to everyone else's losses. Same with Georgetown (although I have other opinions on them). If I had to pick a team that isn't expected to break the top quarter of the conference but will, I will go with the Bearcats. This is contingent on Lance Stepheson's status, but if he's ready to go, he will join Deonta Vaughn and Yancey Gates as a pretty darn good top three. Cashmere Wright is also expected to make a big contribution after he was hurt the entire season last year. Is top 4 in conference a stretch? Maybe. But a lot of teams in the Big East have reasons to doubt them.

Team that could disappoint:

Georgetown: This team's been pretty tough to figure out the past few seasons. Two years ago they drew a 2 seed but fell to Curry's magic men and Davidson. A year ago they were expected to be good again and they fell off the map by mid-February. John Thompson III claimed the team last year couldn't figure out how to win. After watching this team last year and seeing how quickly DaJuan Summers bolted for the NBA draft, it's pretty clear there were some issues last season. Greg Monroe has proven to be one of the top young big men in the college game, but he'll need to take a leadership role for the Hoyas in what appears to be a season of high expectations.

Picks:

1. West Virginia - Matchup problems all over the place and tough defense.
2. Villanova - If someone can replace Cunningham's production, look out.
3. UConn - Haven't been talked about much, but Jerome Dyson is back, and Kemba Walker is ready to step into the spotlight.
4. Cincinnati - Risky pick, but why not in a conference with so much turnover? The talent is there
5. Georgetown - Too much talent to have a repeat of last season, but be warry.
6. Syracuse - Lost a lot, but Arinze Onuaku is a beast and there is shooting on the perimeter.
7. Louisville - Two big losses in Earl Clark and Terrence Williams will likely force Louisville to slow down the tempo a bit more than last season.
8. Pitt - All veteran leadership is gone, and while the future is bright, expect a rebuilding year.
9. Marquette - See Pitt
10. Seton Hall - A lot of new faces will join the returning talent and attempt to make a tournament run.
11. Notre Dame - Harangody is back, which is good. McAlarney is gone, which is bad. Where's the ugly? The awful defense.
12. St. John's - Returned all five starters from last year. Unfortunately, those 5 starters led the Red Storm to 13th in the Big East last year.
13. Rutgers - Played a nightmare schedule last year and will have opportunities to win games.
14. Providence - Lost three of their biggest contributors. The Friars will take their lumps this year.
15. DePaul - I predict the Blue Demons to win at least one Big East game this season. Yes, in the regular season this time.
16. South Florida - Probably should stick to football.

Tournament Teams:

West Virginia, Villanova, UConn, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Syracuse, Louisville

Season Preview: ACC

2009-11-02T05:55:00.002-08:00

The ACC has recently been dominated by one team: UNC. That trend doesn't seem likely to change, despite how much UNC lost this year. Many teams are good but none of them have really improved themselves enough to appear to pose a serious threat to UNC's reign at the top. Of course, UNC could always slump to the back of the pack after all the scoring they lost this season, but I wouldn't bet on that.

The Favorites:

UNC: Why do I have a team that lost 4 starters as the ACC champions? It's a rare situation for sure, and it may seem like I'm contradicting myself when I talk about Kentucky's situation later in the year. But here's why I'm confident in UNC: unlike many teams that lose that many pieces, UNC has veterans returning. Marcus Ginyard, Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller... these are all guys that recieved decent minutes for last year's National Champions and are poised to take a step up this season.

There's no denying the amount of talent UNC has. Davis should be All-Conference this year. John Henson should start immediately. The other freshman were all highly touted in high school. Ginyard has starting experience and is an excellent defender. The biggest concern will be at point guard. Larry Drew II will be running the show and is no Lawson in the backcourt. If Drew or somebody else can handle the fast pace of Roy Williams' UNC offense, the weapons are in place to make a Final Four run.

Duke: The Blue Devils have been overrated the past few years, and with Gerald Henderson gone, there's plenty of people that believe this will be Duke's worst season yet. Before we discuss Duke as a team, let's remember that Duke has had between 27 and 32 wins every year since the 1996-97 season (except for 2006-07), has 4 conference titles this decade and 7 conference tournament wins this decade. So Duke is still very much relevant in college basketball. That being said...

Duke's biggest problem last year was size. This year the signing of Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee should add plenty of much needed depth. The bigger problem is in the backcourt, where Henderson graduated and Elliot Williams transferred to Memphis. This means Duke will likely be rotating between three guards: Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and newcomer Andre Dawkins. If those three can hold the fort at the guard positions and Kelly and Plumlee step in and give Duke quality minutes, Duke can contend for a Final Four spot. Otherwise, well, there are plenty of 2nd tier ACC teams that could make a run at Duke for the 2nd spot in the conference.

Team that could surprise:

Maryland - The Terps return Greivis Vasquez, likely the best guard and possibly best player in the conference. That in itself is saying something in a conference that is somewhat devoid of experienced guards. Vasquez does everything for this team: pass, drive to the basket, defend, lead. Most of the supporting cast around him returns as well, including Landon Milbourne and Eric Hayes. We saw last year Maryland has knockout power, and I am picking them to rise out of the muddled mess that is the middle of the ACC.

Team that could disappoint:

Georgia Tech - Okay, okay. I know they got Derrick Favors. I know they got Mfon Udofia to run the point. I know Gani Lawal came back. I know about Iman Shumpert. Bottom line: this team went 2-14 last year in the ACC. Will they be a tournament team? Probably. But I need to see more before I predict anything higher than .500 in conference. Teams generally don't go from worst to top of the conference in one season, especially not in a crowded ACC.

Predicted Standings:

1. UNC - Too much talent and athleticism for it not to work out.
2. Duke - Wild card for the Devils may be how Scheyer runs the point.
3. Maryland - Vasquez's leadership and defense will make the difference.
4. Florida State - Solomon Alabi, Chris Singleton, and Derwin Kitchen form a solid core. But who will replace Toney Douglas's production?
5. Clemson - Trevor Booker will need to should more of an offensive load with K. C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby gone.
6. Boston College - Due to a well-balanced offense, they won't miss Tyrese Rice as much as initially thought.
7. Georgia Tech - Favors and Udofia will help, but a long way to go in a strong conference.
8. Wake Forest - Someone has to finish here, right? Demon Deacons in a transition state at the moment.
9. Virginia Tech - Not as much talent as the big boys, but they will be very competitive.
10. Miami (FL) - Rebuilding process begins with Jack McClinton gone.
11. Virginia - Sylven Landesberg needs more of a supporting cast around him.
12. NC State - In the not very distant past, this was a decent basketball program.

Tournament teams:

UNC, Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Georgia Tech

Season Preview: The Contenders

2009-10-31T06:41:00.000-07:00

Only 10 days until the start of the season! I'm in full college basketball mode right now. I generally take a different approach to studying college basketball than other sports. When talking about baseball, football, or anything else, I usually obtain a broad knowledge of the sport and then talk like I know everything and anything about that sport. Obviously, I'm usually wrong, but sometimes it's fun to argue like you're an expert and see people's reactions. But with college basketball, I try to strive for knowledge over everything else. I try to accept everyone's opinion on the sport and see it as a different perspective on the situation. It makes a more knowledgeable fan and helps me understand the game more. But enough about philosophy. Time to talk college basketball.

Generally at the beginning of the season there are a few favorites that stand out from the crowd. Last season there was one team that was the consensus #1 at the beginning; that was North Carolina. This season is no different. However, I do think there is plenty of room for movement at the top, and if there's one thing I've learned about college basketball, it's that the minute you have a team pegged, they go out and perform the complete opposity of what you expected. That said, I'm going to make somewhat of a bold statement and say I think the National Champion and 3 of the 4 Final Four teams will come from this group:

Kansas
UNC
Texas
Michigan State
West Virginia
Villanova
Purdue
Kentucky
Duke

That's less a prediction and more a general observation of the best teams in the country at this moment. It's also the top 9 teams in the rankings right now, which means it's not really that bold. But after this point I believe there is a break that separates the teams above (the favorites) from the teams below (teams that can be great but have serious obstacles to overcome to make a Final Four run). The next group below you can call darkhorses, but I think one of these teams will likely surprise and sneak into the Final Four (like Villanova last year). My top candidates for non-favorites that will surprise are:

Boston College
Maryland
Florida State
UConn
Ohio State
Michigan
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Cal
Washington
Butler

This is not what I consider a comprehensive list of the "2nd tier" teams. This is just here to illustrate that one of these teams who isn't expected to make a Final Four run will likely emerge as a contender at some point in the season. The point is: expect the unexpected.

Now a look ahead: in the next few days I am going to put out conference previews: one for each of the power conferences, the A-10, and then a mid-major "best of the rest" section. Except for the "best of the rest", each will have a similar format and is designed not to go in-depth into every team but to give a taste of the conference, including the overall direction I think each is heading in and some general expectations just so you can get some perspective on each conference. When the season starts on Nov. 9th, my hope is you are an educated fan who thoroughly enjoys the game, as that is what I attempt to achieve in my studies.

Midnight Madness

2009-10-16T06:03:00.000-07:00

Tonight is Midnight Madness... that means the official start of the college basketball season! And yes, that means it's blogging time again. Last year was year 1, and it was a lot of fun running this blog. I felt like it kept me in tune with the college basketball season from November all the way through March, which was the ultimate goal. However, as my time became more limited heading into spring semester, I stopped posting consistently, and with my schedule, if you give away time dedicated to blogging about college basketball, it ain't coming back. So I have a few goals in mind that I think will help me to blog consistently and accurately.

One of the big things I did was a featured games of the week post every Sunday. It was pretty much a list of a bunch of big games happening during the upcoming week. While it recieved good feedback, it became more difficult to write as the season went on due to the increasing length. So my goal this year is to keep it simple. The first few weeks will have separate posts for the upcoming week and for the weekend. Hopefully this will separate the Saturday/Sunday games and allow me to post those when I have available time (like Friday night/Saturday morning) and the weekday games, which aren't as clustered, can be done before the week starts when my schedule becomes busier.

My other goal is to consistently blog throughout the year. Spring semester was pretty rough last year, and it became difficult to blog consistently. This year I feel like if I start with a smaller workload in the blog, I can gain momentum as the season progresses (much like a college basketball team!) and by the end of the season, I will have consistent, fairly in-depth coverage of the entire nation. That's probably a pipe dream, but I gotta aim big. This is my sport. I love talking college basketball, gathering information, projecting tournament scenarios, everything about the sport. I want it to be my focus from November to March. That and the Blackhawks. And the Bears while they're good.

So that's the general plan. I'm currently working on conference previews for all the major conferences and one for the top mid-major schools. I'm looking to have that out by the start of the season. Oh, and one more thing: ESPN is having another one of those "24 Hours of College Basketball" things on Nov. 17th. My goal be up all night watching those games, and maybe blogging at the same time. It's gonna be sweet. So enjoy the start of the best sport in America!! College basketball baby!!!

Bubble Watch - March 12th

2009-03-12T06:53:00.000-07:00

Judgment day for bubble teams. Here's a look at the current picture:

Locks:
Xavier
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake
Florida St
Kansas
OU
Missouri
Texas
UConn
Louisville
Pitt
Marquette
Villanova
Syracuse
West Virginia (given the current outlook of the bubble, they've done more than enough)
Michigan St.
Illinois
Purdue
Ohio St
Washington
Arizona St.
Cal
UCLA
LSU
Tennessee (I can't think of a scenario where the Vols wouldn't get in so... good enough for me)
Utah
BYU
Butler

In with a win today:
Providence
BC
Michigan
Penn State
Arizona
Oklahoma St.
Dayton

More work left to do (What they have to do to get in):
Rhode Island (A-10 final)
VT (ACC semis)
Maryland (ACC semis)
Miami (ACC final? Potentially could get in with a quarterfinal win, but need the semifinal win just to be safe)
Wisconsin (Big Ten semis)
Minnesota (Big Ten semis)
Northwestern (Big Ten semis)
New Mexico (Mountain West final... only because I'd like to see a good road/neutral win. They could potentially get in with a close loss to Utah, but they're playing with the committee if that happens.)
San Diego St (Mountain West final... quarterfinal win might be enough, but might not)
UNLV (Mountain West final... out of the three MWC teams, they could survive a semifinal loss the most.)
South Carolina (SEC final... a quarterfinal win may be good enough but they need all the RPI Top 50 wins they can get)
Florida (SEC final... same as above)

Teams whose season is over and are still on the bubble:
Texas A&M
St. Mary's
Creighton
Davidson

Teams that are on the bubble if they don't win their conference tournament:
Utah St.

So here's the possible outcomes. There are 30 locks representing 8 conferences (the Horizon doesn't count because their auto bid has already been handed out), so 22 at-large spots are filled assuming nobody from outside that group wins their conference tournament (a safe assumption at the moment...we'll re-evaluate should that time come). In addition, I think 7 teams can get in with wins today, leaving only 5 spots for the remaining teams. At the moment, here's the order I think the bubble teams stand in:

Texas A&M
St. Mary's
UNLV
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
San Diego St.
South Carolina
New Mexico
Minnesota
Maryland
Northwestern
Florida
Creighton
Miami
Davidson
Rhode Island

Okay, so that is a lot of options. First, let's take a look at the teams that will be IN if they win today:

Providence v. Louisville, 12 PM

Why will they be in with a win today: Beating the Big East champ will do that for you.

If they don't win: Probably in. Villanova was in a similar situation a year ago and a first round win and quarterfinal exit in the Big East tourney was good enough. Plus, the way the bubble's shaping out, there aren't too many good fringe candidates and the Friars have been playing as well as most of them recently.

Boston College v. Virginia, 9 PM

Why: Two big conference wins (UNC and Duke) and good overall finish in conference should be enough for the committee to look past some really bad losses.

If they don't win: Things get dicey, because that's now three excuses the committee has to leave them out (Harvard, @ NC State are the other two). My gut says they'd still be okay, but they probably shouldn't risk it. Just take care of business tonight.

Michigan v. Iowa, 2:30 PM

Why: Big out of conference wins and good conference finish will be enough to get them in barring a major collapse.

If they don't win: Also dicey... that would be two losses to Iowa and the Wolverines really haven't done a ton to separate themselves in conference play. Not that that's a bad thing (mediocre in the Big Ten this year = tournament bid) but it is a bad thing if they've got some baggage for the committee to look at.

Penn State v. Indiana, 5 PM

Why: Wins against the top three teams in the conference and an overall record of .500 vs. the RPI Top 50 will be plenty.

If they don't win: I still think their resume is good enough, but a loss to IU? That would look AWFUL. That, plus the loss to Iowa, doesn't leave a good taste in the committee's mouth. And unlike others, they did all their work in conference, which may lead some to question the validity of the Big Ten and therefore somewhat "nullify" some of their conference wins. Okay, that's a stretch, but I feel like Penn State's one of those teams people will make reasons to leave out. And if you lose to IU, you really only have yourself to blame.

Arizona v. Arizona St., 3 PM

Why: Win against a ranked team will add to their list of good wins and should push them over the edge.

If they don't win: The Wildcats have been very up and down this year, and while they have plenty of good wins, the losses are really starting to pile up. 13 losses is a lot for any bubble team to have. They might be a victim of someone like Utah St. losing their conference tourney or a borderline tournament team making a power conference tournament push.

Oklahoma St. v. Oklahoma, 7 PM

Why: Beat a top 10 team? Yea, that should be enough.

If they don't win: Probably still good. No shame in losing to OU this year, and they still have very good computer numbers and good wins now to back them up. I can't see the Cowboys getting turned down at this point (although they're not a lock just yet).

Dayton v. Richmond, 9 PM

Why: The win won't do much, but the Flyers just need to avoid a major collapse.

If they don't win: They'd be begging the committee to leave them out with all the awful conference losses, but I still think they'd be okay. Wins against Marquette, Xavier, and Auburn (actually starting to look like a decent win) would stack up well vs. the rest of the bubble. But it would be a lot closer than the Flyers would like.

So what does all this mean? Not much. In 4 of these games, teams are favorites and should get in with a win. The other 3 include bubble teams that are underdogs. But the bubble is still very fluid and there's still time for teams to make tournament cases. And, unlike some other sports, if you keep winning, no committee can decide your fate. One of the many reasons college basketball is awesome.

Conference Tournament Central

2009-03-08T11:36:00.000-07:00

Big East:
March 10-14

First Round: Tues, March 10
9 - Cincinnati
16 - DePaul

12 - Georgetown
13 - St. John's

10 - Notre Dame
15 - Rutgers

11 - Seton Hall
14 - South Florida

2nd Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Providence
Cincy/DePaul

5 - Marquette
G-Town/St. John's

7 - West Virginia
ND/Rutgers

6 - Syracuse
Seton Hall/USF

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Louisville
Providence/Cincy/DePaul

4 - Villanova
Marquette/G-Town/St. John's

2 - Pittsburgh
WVU/ND/Rutgers

3 - UConn
Syracuse/Seton Hall/USF

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: Pitt, obviously. They're my overall #1 and my current pick to win it all.
Darkhorse: Syracuse. They're good enough to beat anyone in this conference. If they manage to bring it on every night, they can potentially win this thing. Now, beating UConn, Louisville, and Pitt three days in a row is a tall order for any team in the nation... I'm guessing we're not going to see a major upset here. One of the top three will win it.

ACC:
March 12-15

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
8 - Virginia Tech
9 - Miami

5 - Clemson
12 - Georgia Tech

7 - Maryland
10 - NC State

6 - Boston College
11 - Virginia

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
1 - North Carolina
VT/Miami

4 - Florida State
Clemson/GT

2 - Wake Forest
Maryland/NC State

3- Duke
BC/Virginia

Semifinals: Sat, March 14th
Finals: Sun, March 15th

Favorite: UNC. Most talented team in the conference and possibly in the nation, I feel like they've flown under the radar somewhat due to all the attention Pitt/UConn/Louisville have gotten recently and their inability to secure the #1 ranking (which they might tomorrow). But this team is still very, very dangerous, especially when they want to play D.
Darkhorse: Clemson. We've already seen what this team can do against Duke... when you can full-court press and create turnovers, and you've got Trevor Booker, you can compete with anyone in the conference. Also look out for BC, VT, and Maryland, all of whom have picked up big wins in the regular season and all could use a good win or two to lock up their tournament status.

Big Ten:
March 12-15

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
8 - Minnesota
9 - Northwestern

7 - Michigan
10 - Iowa

6 - Penn State
11 - Iowa

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
1 - Michigan State
Minnesota/Northwestern

4 - Wisconsin
5 - Ohio State

2 - Illinois
Michigan/Iowa

3 - Purdue
Penn State/Iowa

Semifinals: Sat, March 14th
Finals: Sun, March 15th

Favorite: Michigan State. They've been the most consistent team in the conference by far, they're an excellent rebounding team, they're athletic and agressive on defense... they've been sluggish at times this season but so has everyone in the conference. They're the best this year.
Darkhorse: Everyone. Seriously. Eight teams could end up winning this thing. And a ninth, Northwestern, is capable of beating pretty much anyone. I wouldn't be surprised to see some low seeds advancing to the semis and finals. This conference has been pretty even all season long and I don't expect the tournament to be any different.

Pac-10
March 11-14

First Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Oregon State
9 - Stanford

7 - Washington State
10 - Oregon

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Washington
OSU/Stanford

4 - Arizona State
5 - Arizona

2 - UCLA
WSU/Oregon

3 - Cal
4 - USC

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: Washington. I could go in a number of directions here, as both Arizona State and UCLA are potential choices here. However, I'll go with the conference winner and most consistent team in Pac-10 play this season.
Darkhorse: If Arizona State counts at the 4 seed, I'll go with them. If not, I'll take the team that they play... Arizona. The Wildcats are blessed with potential NBA lottery picks at several positions and are desperate for wins. They could run off a few wins or so and take this thing.

Big 12:
March 11-14

First Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Nebraska
9 - Baylor

5 - Texas
12 - Colorado

7 - Oklahoma State
10 - Iowa State

6 - Texas A&M
11 - Texas Tech

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Kansas
Nebraska/Baylor

4 - Kansas State
Texas/Colorado

2 - Oklahoma
OSU/ISU

3 - Missouri
Texas A&M/Texas Tech

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: OU. Still the best team in the conference when Griffin is healthy.
Darkhorse: Missouri doesn't count as a darkhorse anymore, so I'll take Texas A&M. They've been playing well recently, beating some good teams (Texas, Missouri) and playing with the urgency a bubble team should be playing with.

SEC:
March 12th-15th

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
W5 - Ole Miss
E4 - Kentucky

E6 - Georgia
W3 - Mississippi St.

E5 - Vanderbilt
W4 - Alabama

W6 - Arkansas
E3 - Florida

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
W1 - LSU
Ole Miss/Kentucky

E2 - South Carolina
Georgia/Miss St.

E1 - Tennessee
Vanderbilt/Alabama

W2 - Auburn
Arkansas/Florida

Favorite: LSU. They've been the best of this incredibly mediocre conference.
Darkhorse: Just like the Big Ten, anyone could win this thing, but since I'm not going to use that as a cop-out answer again, I'll pick Kentucky. Because anytime you have a guy like Jodie Meeks that can score 40 on anyone, you have to be a somewhat dangerous team.

Other conferences:
Atlantic 10: March 11-14
Xavier is the favorite again after winning their 3rd conference title in a row, but look out for Dayton, who beat them earlier this year, and Rhode Island, who is in desperation mode after losing to UMass on Saturday.

Mountain West: March 11-14
One of the few conferences where, after the regular season, we still don't know a lot about the overall bubble outlook. Utah is in for sure, and BYU will probably get in due to being the regular season conference champ, but what will we do with UNLV? The tournament's on their floor, so they have the best chance to win, but if they don't, their resume is very, very average. And what about San Diego State? These two play each other again in the 4/5 matchup, so one team's staying home for sure after Thursday.

Other small conference news:
-Northern Iowa won the MVC tournament and the auto bid, beating Illinois State 60-57 in OT. This team could give some major conference team fits in their first round matchup with their slow, deliberate style of play.
-Siena survived their semifinal matchup and now face Niagara on Monday for the MAAC conference champ. Does Siena get in if they lose a close one? They might be difficult to turn down given the weakness of the bubble this year.
-Speaking of small conference bubble teams, Davidson was ousted from the Southern conference tournament in the semis, losing to College of Charleston again. The Wildcats have a win over West Virginia, which, to be honest, is better than some bubble teams so far (I'm looking at you, South Carolina). And the allure of Stephen Curry might be enough to make the committee include Davidson. Either way, it's going to be a VERY long week for the Wildcats.
-Gonzaga pounded Santa Clara in their semifinal game and now wait the winner of the St. Mary's/Portland game for the WCC championshi on Monday.
-And it's 1 vs. 2 on Monday for the Colonial championship... VCU vs. George Mason. Should be a very entertaining game to watch, and the winner's going to be a tough out in the tournament.