Season Preview: Big 12

While other power conferences like the Big East, ACC, and Pac-10 were ravaged by the NBA draft, most of the big talent in the Big 12 chose to stick around, and as a result everywhere from 1st to 10th in conference should be highly contested. With two legit top 5 teams and National Championship contenders, and nine to ten teams that could make the tournament, the Big 12 is the best and deepest conference in the country. Like the Big East last year, there will likely be one or two teams that get some nice looking victories but end up on the wrong side of the tournament cut line due to poor performance in conference. Such is the nature of the beast this year in the Big 12.

The Favorites:

Kansas: Simply put, this is the clear #1 team in the nation. Everyone that contributed to this team last year returns. That includes top PG in the country Sheron Collins. That includes one of the best big men in the country in Cole Aldrich. That includes wings Tyshawn Taylor, Markieff Morris, and Maurice Morris. Oh, and if those guys don't work out, there's always frosh Xavier Henry and Thomas Robinson to help carry the scoring load. There's depth in the backcourt too, with Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed. There's really no weak point on this Jayhawks squad at the moment.

Now, the team has had to deal with their fair share of run-ins with the law. Morningstar has been suspended for the first semester after being arrested on suspected drunken driving. Tyshawn Taylor injured his finger in a fight with the school football team earlier this fall. Coach Bill Self is attempting to put these incidents behind his team and focus on basketball. As long as they're winning on the court, he shouldn't have too difficult of a time doing so.

Texas: Lots of talent returns, and lots of talent enters. Forward Damion James chose to stay in school and gives the Longhorns one of the best 3's in the country. Dexter Pittman is an absolute monster in the paint. Justin Mason was steady at the point. Gary Johnson, Varez Ward, and Douglas Balbay are solid backups. The only loss was three point specialist A. J. Abrams, and honestly, that's not always a bad thing, as Abrams bogged down the offense at times with his one-on-one showdowns and quick trigger for three pointers. The offense should be more spread out and should flow better this year.

The strength for Texas is in the backcourt. Jai Lucas, transfer from Florida, J'Covan Brown, star of the class of 2008 who is finally academically eligible, and frosh Avery Bradley join Mason, Balbay, and Ward in a fight for playing time. It's a good problem to have for sure. And with Pittman, Johnson, and James patroling the frontcourt, Texas is as close to a complete team as you're going to get. This is a top 5 team.

Team that could surprise:

Kansas State: Unlike other conferences where the middle is one big mess, I feel like there's a gap between the really good teams, the solid tournament teams, the fringe tournament teams, and the NIT and below teams. That means it can be difficult to envision scenarios where teams from those lower tiers make jumps up. That's not true for the Wildcats, who return two very talented guards in Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen and bring in uber-talented forward Wally Judge. Kansas State isn't getting a ton of press this year, but they have the potential to move up into the top 3 of the conference.

Team that could disappoint:

Oklahoma: Just like it's difficult to find sleepers, it can be difficult to guess which teams will not perform as well as expected. Maybe it's just because I want to see the good in every team... anyway, the team most likely to disappoint is the Sooners, simply because they relied so much on one player last year (Blake Griffin) and that man is gone this year. Guys like Juan Patillo and Tony Crocker are good role players, but not offensive leaders. That burden falls on young Willie Warren. I believe he's ready to take that step, but if he's not, OU will fall back, and in the slippery slope that is the Big 12, that could be more than just a few places in the standings.

Picks:

1. Kansas: Simply the most talent returning.
2. Texas: Everyone (including myself) expects big, big things out of the Longhorns this year.
3. Kansas State: Lots of returnees, decent amount of depth, and potent backcourt mean good things for the Wildcats.
4. Oklahoma State: One of the hottest teams in the country at the end of last year... but who will replace Eaton?
5. Oklahoma: Warren gets his opportunity to shine.
6. Missouri: They will be small, but they are dedicated to their style of play and will be fun to watch.
7. Texas A&M: Chinemelu Elonu is gone, but decent amount of talent still returns.
8. Iowa State: How far can Craig Brackins carry the Cyclones this year?
9. Baylor: Lots of turnover for the Bears this season, and in a dangerous conference. But the program is in good hands.
10. Texas Tech: Some good components, but this team needs to play some defense.
11. Nebraska: Got a lot out of a little last year... the conference is much better this season though.
12. Colorado: At least there's football... oh wait, maybe not.

Tournament Teams:

Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas A&M

Season Preview: Big East

Last season, the Big East was the undisputed #1 conference in the land. With 7 teams making the tournament and 3 #1 seeds, the Big East was loaded from top to bottom. However, this year many of those teams lost their top players, meaning there has been a great deal of turnover at the top of the conference. It also means there will be plenty of movement in the middle of the conference throughout the year, as teams with young components mesh and thrive and others fall apart.

The Favorites:

West Virginia: My pick to win the Big East. They might have the best pair of wings in the country in Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler. The two averaged over 27 points per game between them last season and present many matchup problems across the board. If you include returning starter Wellington Smith, Kevin Jones, John Flowers, and Cam Thoroughman, you probably have one of the best frontcourts in the country.

In the backcourt, the Mountaineers have two legitimate starting PGs in Joe Mazzulla and Darryl Bryant. Casey Mitchell, a JUCO transfer, is expected to immediately fill the 2 guard role that opened after Alex Ruoff's graduation. All in all, this is a pretty complete team. Despite the lack of a true center, they go deep in the frontcourt and either Ebanks or Butler will likely have a smaller guy on them at the 3. This team was pretty solid defensively last year and I expect them to do the same again this year. All in all, West Virginia takes a big step up this season.

Villanova: There's no denying the Wildcats' talent in the backcourt. Scottie Reynolds made himself a household name last year with his Elite 8 heroics and should benefit greatly again from working off the ball. With Corey Fisher seeing some time at the 1, this allows Reynolds to focus on what he's good at: scoring. The two will be joined by three point specialist Corey Stokes to form the best backcourt in the conference. And that's with Reggie Redding out until mid-December.

The biggest question mark for Nova will be how they replace Dante Cunningham. Cunningham gave Nova a viable weapon on the wing and a potent scorer in the frontcourt. Replacing him will be returnee Antonio Pena, Duke transfer Taylor King, and freshman PF Mouphtaou Yarou. None of them have quite the skill set Cunningham had, but they should all provide offense in their own way. Depth could be slight problem as well in the frontcourt. These should be small issues and the Wildcats will be a Final Four contender again, but it does give reason to doubt their status as favorites in the Big East.

Team that could surprise:

Cincinnati: Picking out a surprise team is difficult due to the amount of uncertainty in the middle of the conference. UConn could be a pick here, but they already appear to have somewhat high expectations due to everyone else's losses. Same with Georgetown (although I have other opinions on them). If I had to pick a team that isn't expected to break the top quarter of the conference but will, I will go with the Bearcats. This is contingent on Lance Stepheson's status, but if he's ready to go, he will join Deonta Vaughn and Yancey Gates as a pretty darn good top three. Cashmere Wright is also expected to make a big contribution after he was hurt the entire season last year. Is top 4 in conference a stretch? Maybe. But a lot of teams in the Big East have reasons to doubt them.

Team that could disappoint:

Georgetown: This team's been pretty tough to figure out the past few seasons. Two years ago they drew a 2 seed but fell to Curry's magic men and Davidson. A year ago they were expected to be good again and they fell off the map by mid-February. John Thompson III claimed the team last year couldn't figure out how to win. After watching this team last year and seeing how quickly DaJuan Summers bolted for the NBA draft, it's pretty clear there were some issues last season. Greg Monroe has proven to be one of the top young big men in the college game, but he'll need to take a leadership role for the Hoyas in what appears to be a season of high expectations.

Picks:

1. West Virginia - Matchup problems all over the place and tough defense.
2. Villanova - If someone can replace Cunningham's production, look out.
3. UConn - Haven't been talked about much, but Jerome Dyson is back, and Kemba Walker is ready to step into the spotlight.
4. Cincinnati - Risky pick, but why not in a conference with so much turnover? The talent is there
5. Georgetown - Too much talent to have a repeat of last season, but be warry.
6. Syracuse - Lost a lot, but Arinze Onuaku is a beast and there is shooting on the perimeter.
7. Louisville - Two big losses in Earl Clark and Terrence Williams will likely force Louisville to slow down the tempo a bit more than last season.
8. Pitt - All veteran leadership is gone, and while the future is bright, expect a rebuilding year.
9. Marquette - See Pitt
10. Seton Hall - A lot of new faces will join the returning talent and attempt to make a tournament run.
11. Notre Dame - Harangody is back, which is good. McAlarney is gone, which is bad. Where's the ugly? The awful defense.
12. St. John's - Returned all five starters from last year. Unfortunately, those 5 starters led the Red Storm to 13th in the Big East last year.
13. Rutgers - Played a nightmare schedule last year and will have opportunities to win games.
14. Providence - Lost three of their biggest contributors. The Friars will take their lumps this year.
15. DePaul - I predict the Blue Demons to win at least one Big East game this season. Yes, in the regular season this time.
16. South Florida - Probably should stick to football.

Tournament Teams:

West Virginia, Villanova, UConn, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Syracuse, Louisville

Season Preview: ACC

The ACC has recently been dominated by one team: UNC. That trend doesn't seem likely to change, despite how much UNC lost this year. Many teams are good but none of them have really improved themselves enough to appear to pose a serious threat to UNC's reign at the top. Of course, UNC could always slump to the back of the pack after all the scoring they lost this season, but I wouldn't bet on that.

The Favorites:

UNC: Why do I have a team that lost 4 starters as the ACC champions? It's a rare situation for sure, and it may seem like I'm contradicting myself when I talk about Kentucky's situation later in the year. But here's why I'm confident in UNC: unlike many teams that lose that many pieces, UNC has veterans returning. Marcus Ginyard, Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller... these are all guys that recieved decent minutes for last year's National Champions and are poised to take a step up this season.

There's no denying the amount of talent UNC has. Davis should be All-Conference this year. John Henson should start immediately. The other freshman were all highly touted in high school. Ginyard has starting experience and is an excellent defender. The biggest concern will be at point guard. Larry Drew II will be running the show and is no Lawson in the backcourt. If Drew or somebody else can handle the fast pace of Roy Williams' UNC offense, the weapons are in place to make a Final Four run.

Duke: The Blue Devils have been overrated the past few years, and with Gerald Henderson gone, there's plenty of people that believe this will be Duke's worst season yet. Before we discuss Duke as a team, let's remember that Duke has had between 27 and 32 wins every year since the 1996-97 season (except for 2006-07), has 4 conference titles this decade and 7 conference tournament wins this decade. So Duke is still very much relevant in college basketball. That being said...

Duke's biggest problem last year was size. This year the signing of Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee should add plenty of much needed depth. The bigger problem is in the backcourt, where Henderson graduated and Elliot Williams transferred to Memphis. This means Duke will likely be rotating between three guards: Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and newcomer Andre Dawkins. If those three can hold the fort at the guard positions and Kelly and Plumlee step in and give Duke quality minutes, Duke can contend for a Final Four spot. Otherwise, well, there are plenty of 2nd tier ACC teams that could make a run at Duke for the 2nd spot in the conference.

Team that could surprise:

Maryland - The Terps return Greivis Vasquez, likely the best guard and possibly best player in the conference. That in itself is saying something in a conference that is somewhat devoid of experienced guards. Vasquez does everything for this team: pass, drive to the basket, defend, lead. Most of the supporting cast around him returns as well, including Landon Milbourne and Eric Hayes. We saw last year Maryland has knockout power, and I am picking them to rise out of the muddled mess that is the middle of the ACC.

Team that could disappoint:

Georgia Tech - Okay, okay. I know they got Derrick Favors. I know they got Mfon Udofia to run the point. I know Gani Lawal came back. I know about Iman Shumpert. Bottom line: this team went 2-14 last year in the ACC. Will they be a tournament team? Probably. But I need to see more before I predict anything higher than .500 in conference. Teams generally don't go from worst to top of the conference in one season, especially not in a crowded ACC.

Predicted Standings:

1. UNC - Too much talent and athleticism for it not to work out.
2. Duke - Wild card for the Devils may be how Scheyer runs the point.
3. Maryland - Vasquez's leadership and defense will make the difference.
4. Florida State - Solomon Alabi, Chris Singleton, and Derwin Kitchen form a solid core. But who will replace Toney Douglas's production?
5. Clemson - Trevor Booker will need to should more of an offensive load with K. C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby gone.
6. Boston College - Due to a well-balanced offense, they won't miss Tyrese Rice as much as initially thought.
7. Georgia Tech - Favors and Udofia will help, but a long way to go in a strong conference.
8. Wake Forest - Someone has to finish here, right? Demon Deacons in a transition state at the moment.
9. Virginia Tech - Not as much talent as the big boys, but they will be very competitive.
10. Miami (FL) - Rebuilding process begins with Jack McClinton gone.
11. Virginia - Sylven Landesberg needs more of a supporting cast around him.
12. NC State - In the not very distant past, this was a decent basketball program.

Tournament teams:

UNC, Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Georgia Tech

Season Preview: The Contenders

Only 10 days until the start of the season! I'm in full college basketball mode right now. I generally take a different approach to studying college basketball than other sports. When talking about baseball, football, or anything else, I usually obtain a broad knowledge of the sport and then talk like I know everything and anything about that sport. Obviously, I'm usually wrong, but sometimes it's fun to argue like you're an expert and see people's reactions. But with college basketball, I try to strive for knowledge over everything else. I try to accept everyone's opinion on the sport and see it as a different perspective on the situation. It makes a more knowledgeable fan and helps me understand the game more. But enough about philosophy. Time to talk college basketball.

Generally at the beginning of the season there are a few favorites that stand out from the crowd. Last season there was one team that was the consensus #1 at the beginning; that was North Carolina. This season is no different. However, I do think there is plenty of room for movement at the top, and if there's one thing I've learned about college basketball, it's that the minute you have a team pegged, they go out and perform the complete opposity of what you expected. That said, I'm going to make somewhat of a bold statement and say I think the National Champion and 3 of the 4 Final Four teams will come from this group:

Kansas
UNC
Texas
Michigan State
West Virginia
Villanova
Purdue
Kentucky
Duke

That's less a prediction and more a general observation of the best teams in the country at this moment. It's also the top 9 teams in the rankings right now, which means it's not really that bold. But after this point I believe there is a break that separates the teams above (the favorites) from the teams below (teams that can be great but have serious obstacles to overcome to make a Final Four run). The next group below you can call darkhorses, but I think one of these teams will likely surprise and sneak into the Final Four (like Villanova last year). My top candidates for non-favorites that will surprise are:

Boston College
Maryland
Florida State
UConn
Ohio State
Michigan
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Cal
Washington
Butler

This is not what I consider a comprehensive list of the "2nd tier" teams. This is just here to illustrate that one of these teams who isn't expected to make a Final Four run will likely emerge as a contender at some point in the season. The point is: expect the unexpected.

Now a look ahead: in the next few days I am going to put out conference previews: one for each of the power conferences, the A-10, and then a mid-major "best of the rest" section. Except for the "best of the rest", each will have a similar format and is designed not to go in-depth into every team but to give a taste of the conference, including the overall direction I think each is heading in and some general expectations just so you can get some perspective on each conference. When the season starts on Nov. 9th, my hope is you are an educated fan who thoroughly enjoys the game, as that is what I attempt to achieve in my studies.

Midnight Madness

Tonight is Midnight Madness... that means the official start of the college basketball season! And yes, that means it's blogging time again. Last year was year 1, and it was a lot of fun running this blog. I felt like it kept me in tune with the college basketball season from November all the way through March, which was the ultimate goal. However, as my time became more limited heading into spring semester, I stopped posting consistently, and with my schedule, if you give away time dedicated to blogging about college basketball, it ain't coming back. So I have a few goals in mind that I think will help me to blog consistently and accurately.

One of the big things I did was a featured games of the week post every Sunday. It was pretty much a list of a bunch of big games happening during the upcoming week. While it recieved good feedback, it became more difficult to write as the season went on due to the increasing length. So my goal this year is to keep it simple. The first few weeks will have separate posts for the upcoming week and for the weekend. Hopefully this will separate the Saturday/Sunday games and allow me to post those when I have available time (like Friday night/Saturday morning) and the weekday games, which aren't as clustered, can be done before the week starts when my schedule becomes busier.

My other goal is to consistently blog throughout the year. Spring semester was pretty rough last year, and it became difficult to blog consistently. This year I feel like if I start with a smaller workload in the blog, I can gain momentum as the season progresses (much like a college basketball team!) and by the end of the season, I will have consistent, fairly in-depth coverage of the entire nation. That's probably a pipe dream, but I gotta aim big. This is my sport. I love talking college basketball, gathering information, projecting tournament scenarios, everything about the sport. I want it to be my focus from November to March. That and the Blackhawks. And the Bears while they're good.

So that's the general plan. I'm currently working on conference previews for all the major conferences and one for the top mid-major schools. I'm looking to have that out by the start of the season. Oh, and one more thing: ESPN is having another one of those "24 Hours of College Basketball" things on Nov. 17th. My goal be up all night watching those games, and maybe blogging at the same time. It's gonna be sweet. So enjoy the start of the best sport in America!! College basketball baby!!!

Bubble Watch - March 12th

Judgment day for bubble teams. Here's a look at the current picture:

Locks:
Xavier
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake
Florida St
Kansas
OU
Missouri
Texas
UConn
Louisville
Pitt
Marquette
Villanova
Syracuse
West Virginia (given the current outlook of the bubble, they've done more than enough)
Michigan St.
Illinois
Purdue
Ohio St
Washington
Arizona St.
Cal
UCLA
LSU
Tennessee (I can't think of a scenario where the Vols wouldn't get in so... good enough for me)
Utah
BYU
Butler

In with a win today:
Providence
BC
Michigan
Penn State
Arizona
Oklahoma St.
Dayton

More work left to do (What they have to do to get in):
Rhode Island (A-10 final)
VT (ACC semis)
Maryland (ACC semis)
Miami (ACC final? Potentially could get in with a quarterfinal win, but need the semifinal win just to be safe)
Wisconsin (Big Ten semis)
Minnesota (Big Ten semis)
Northwestern (Big Ten semis)
New Mexico (Mountain West final... only because I'd like to see a good road/neutral win. They could potentially get in with a close loss to Utah, but they're playing with the committee if that happens.)
San Diego St (Mountain West final... quarterfinal win might be enough, but might not)
UNLV (Mountain West final... out of the three MWC teams, they could survive a semifinal loss the most.)
South Carolina (SEC final... a quarterfinal win may be good enough but they need all the RPI Top 50 wins they can get)
Florida (SEC final... same as above)

Teams whose season is over and are still on the bubble:
Texas A&M
St. Mary's
Creighton
Davidson

Teams that are on the bubble if they don't win their conference tournament:
Utah St.

So here's the possible outcomes. There are 30 locks representing 8 conferences (the Horizon doesn't count because their auto bid has already been handed out), so 22 at-large spots are filled assuming nobody from outside that group wins their conference tournament (a safe assumption at the moment...we'll re-evaluate should that time come). In addition, I think 7 teams can get in with wins today, leaving only 5 spots for the remaining teams. At the moment, here's the order I think the bubble teams stand in:

Texas A&M
St. Mary's
UNLV
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
San Diego St.
South Carolina
New Mexico
Minnesota
Maryland
Northwestern
Florida
Creighton
Miami
Davidson
Rhode Island

Okay, so that is a lot of options. First, let's take a look at the teams that will be IN if they win today:

Providence v. Louisville, 12 PM

Why will they be in with a win today: Beating the Big East champ will do that for you.

If they don't win: Probably in. Villanova was in a similar situation a year ago and a first round win and quarterfinal exit in the Big East tourney was good enough. Plus, the way the bubble's shaping out, there aren't too many good fringe candidates and the Friars have been playing as well as most of them recently.

Boston College v. Virginia, 9 PM

Why: Two big conference wins (UNC and Duke) and good overall finish in conference should be enough for the committee to look past some really bad losses.

If they don't win: Things get dicey, because that's now three excuses the committee has to leave them out (Harvard, @ NC State are the other two). My gut says they'd still be okay, but they probably shouldn't risk it. Just take care of business tonight.

Michigan v. Iowa, 2:30 PM

Why: Big out of conference wins and good conference finish will be enough to get them in barring a major collapse.

If they don't win: Also dicey... that would be two losses to Iowa and the Wolverines really haven't done a ton to separate themselves in conference play. Not that that's a bad thing (mediocre in the Big Ten this year = tournament bid) but it is a bad thing if they've got some baggage for the committee to look at.

Penn State v. Indiana, 5 PM

Why: Wins against the top three teams in the conference and an overall record of .500 vs. the RPI Top 50 will be plenty.

If they don't win: I still think their resume is good enough, but a loss to IU? That would look AWFUL. That, plus the loss to Iowa, doesn't leave a good taste in the committee's mouth. And unlike others, they did all their work in conference, which may lead some to question the validity of the Big Ten and therefore somewhat "nullify" some of their conference wins. Okay, that's a stretch, but I feel like Penn State's one of those teams people will make reasons to leave out. And if you lose to IU, you really only have yourself to blame.

Arizona v. Arizona St., 3 PM

Why: Win against a ranked team will add to their list of good wins and should push them over the edge.

If they don't win: The Wildcats have been very up and down this year, and while they have plenty of good wins, the losses are really starting to pile up. 13 losses is a lot for any bubble team to have. They might be a victim of someone like Utah St. losing their conference tourney or a borderline tournament team making a power conference tournament push.

Oklahoma St. v. Oklahoma, 7 PM

Why: Beat a top 10 team? Yea, that should be enough.

If they don't win: Probably still good. No shame in losing to OU this year, and they still have very good computer numbers and good wins now to back them up. I can't see the Cowboys getting turned down at this point (although they're not a lock just yet).

Dayton v. Richmond, 9 PM

Why: The win won't do much, but the Flyers just need to avoid a major collapse.

If they don't win: They'd be begging the committee to leave them out with all the awful conference losses, but I still think they'd be okay. Wins against Marquette, Xavier, and Auburn (actually starting to look like a decent win) would stack up well vs. the rest of the bubble. But it would be a lot closer than the Flyers would like.

So what does all this mean? Not much. In 4 of these games, teams are favorites and should get in with a win. The other 3 include bubble teams that are underdogs. But the bubble is still very fluid and there's still time for teams to make tournament cases. And, unlike some other sports, if you keep winning, no committee can decide your fate. One of the many reasons college basketball is awesome.

Conference Tournament Central

Big East:
March 10-14

First Round: Tues, March 10
9 - Cincinnati
16 - DePaul

12 - Georgetown
13 - St. John's

10 - Notre Dame
15 - Rutgers

11 - Seton Hall
14 - South Florida

2nd Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Providence
Cincy/DePaul

5 - Marquette
G-Town/St. John's

7 - West Virginia
ND/Rutgers

6 - Syracuse
Seton Hall/USF

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Louisville
Providence/Cincy/DePaul

4 - Villanova
Marquette/G-Town/St. John's

2 - Pittsburgh
WVU/ND/Rutgers

3 - UConn
Syracuse/Seton Hall/USF

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: Pitt, obviously. They're my overall #1 and my current pick to win it all.
Darkhorse: Syracuse. They're good enough to beat anyone in this conference. If they manage to bring it on every night, they can potentially win this thing. Now, beating UConn, Louisville, and Pitt three days in a row is a tall order for any team in the nation... I'm guessing we're not going to see a major upset here. One of the top three will win it.

ACC:
March 12-15

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
8 - Virginia Tech
9 - Miami

5 - Clemson
12 - Georgia Tech

7 - Maryland
10 - NC State

6 - Boston College
11 - Virginia

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
1 - North Carolina
VT/Miami

4 - Florida State
Clemson/GT

2 - Wake Forest
Maryland/NC State

3- Duke
BC/Virginia

Semifinals: Sat, March 14th
Finals: Sun, March 15th

Favorite: UNC. Most talented team in the conference and possibly in the nation, I feel like they've flown under the radar somewhat due to all the attention Pitt/UConn/Louisville have gotten recently and their inability to secure the #1 ranking (which they might tomorrow). But this team is still very, very dangerous, especially when they want to play D.
Darkhorse: Clemson. We've already seen what this team can do against Duke... when you can full-court press and create turnovers, and you've got Trevor Booker, you can compete with anyone in the conference. Also look out for BC, VT, and Maryland, all of whom have picked up big wins in the regular season and all could use a good win or two to lock up their tournament status.

Big Ten:
March 12-15

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
8 - Minnesota
9 - Northwestern

7 - Michigan
10 - Iowa

6 - Penn State
11 - Iowa

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
1 - Michigan State
Minnesota/Northwestern

4 - Wisconsin
5 - Ohio State

2 - Illinois
Michigan/Iowa

3 - Purdue
Penn State/Iowa

Semifinals: Sat, March 14th
Finals: Sun, March 15th

Favorite: Michigan State. They've been the most consistent team in the conference by far, they're an excellent rebounding team, they're athletic and agressive on defense... they've been sluggish at times this season but so has everyone in the conference. They're the best this year.
Darkhorse: Everyone. Seriously. Eight teams could end up winning this thing. And a ninth, Northwestern, is capable of beating pretty much anyone. I wouldn't be surprised to see some low seeds advancing to the semis and finals. This conference has been pretty even all season long and I don't expect the tournament to be any different.

Pac-10
March 11-14

First Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Oregon State
9 - Stanford

7 - Washington State
10 - Oregon

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Washington
OSU/Stanford

4 - Arizona State
5 - Arizona

2 - UCLA
WSU/Oregon

3 - Cal
4 - USC

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: Washington. I could go in a number of directions here, as both Arizona State and UCLA are potential choices here. However, I'll go with the conference winner and most consistent team in Pac-10 play this season.
Darkhorse: If Arizona State counts at the 4 seed, I'll go with them. If not, I'll take the team that they play... Arizona. The Wildcats are blessed with potential NBA lottery picks at several positions and are desperate for wins. They could run off a few wins or so and take this thing.

Big 12:
March 11-14

First Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Nebraska
9 - Baylor

5 - Texas
12 - Colorado

7 - Oklahoma State
10 - Iowa State

6 - Texas A&M
11 - Texas Tech

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Kansas
Nebraska/Baylor

4 - Kansas State
Texas/Colorado

2 - Oklahoma
OSU/ISU

3 - Missouri
Texas A&M/Texas Tech

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: OU. Still the best team in the conference when Griffin is healthy.
Darkhorse: Missouri doesn't count as a darkhorse anymore, so I'll take Texas A&M. They've been playing well recently, beating some good teams (Texas, Missouri) and playing with the urgency a bubble team should be playing with.

SEC:
March 12th-15th

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
W5 - Ole Miss
E4 - Kentucky

E6 - Georgia
W3 - Mississippi St.

E5 - Vanderbilt
W4 - Alabama

W6 - Arkansas
E3 - Florida

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
W1 - LSU
Ole Miss/Kentucky

E2 - South Carolina
Georgia/Miss St.

E1 - Tennessee
Vanderbilt/Alabama

W2 - Auburn
Arkansas/Florida

Favorite: LSU. They've been the best of this incredibly mediocre conference.
Darkhorse: Just like the Big Ten, anyone could win this thing, but since I'm not going to use that as a cop-out answer again, I'll pick Kentucky. Because anytime you have a guy like Jodie Meeks that can score 40 on anyone, you have to be a somewhat dangerous team.

Other conferences:
Atlantic 10: March 11-14
Xavier is the favorite again after winning their 3rd conference title in a row, but look out for Dayton, who beat them earlier this year, and Rhode Island, who is in desperation mode after losing to UMass on Saturday.

Mountain West: March 11-14
One of the few conferences where, after the regular season, we still don't know a lot about the overall bubble outlook. Utah is in for sure, and BYU will probably get in due to being the regular season conference champ, but what will we do with UNLV? The tournament's on their floor, so they have the best chance to win, but if they don't, their resume is very, very average. And what about San Diego State? These two play each other again in the 4/5 matchup, so one team's staying home for sure after Thursday.

Other small conference news:
-Northern Iowa won the MVC tournament and the auto bid, beating Illinois State 60-57 in OT. This team could give some major conference team fits in their first round matchup with their slow, deliberate style of play.
-Siena survived their semifinal matchup and now face Niagara on Monday for the MAAC conference champ. Does Siena get in if they lose a close one? They might be difficult to turn down given the weakness of the bubble this year.
-Speaking of small conference bubble teams, Davidson was ousted from the Southern conference tournament in the semis, losing to College of Charleston again. The Wildcats have a win over West Virginia, which, to be honest, is better than some bubble teams so far (I'm looking at you, South Carolina). And the allure of Stephen Curry might be enough to make the committee include Davidson. Either way, it's going to be a VERY long week for the Wildcats.
-Gonzaga pounded Santa Clara in their semifinal game and now wait the winner of the St. Mary's/Portland game for the WCC championshi on Monday.
-And it's 1 vs. 2 on Monday for the Colonial championship... VCU vs. George Mason. Should be a very entertaining game to watch, and the winner's going to be a tough out in the tournament.