Tuesday, Nov. 17 in College Basketball

This is the daily feature of the blog. Each night, recaps of games from the night before, followed by a small preview of upcoming games for the day. Since this is the first of the year, I'll start by recapping some important weekend/Monday games:

Friday, Nov. 13th

Pretty much every ranked team played a cupcake and won (save for one school). Impressive debuts included: Kansas (beat Hofstra 101-65, Xavier Henry with 27 in his first college game), Michigan State (beat FL Gulf Coast 97-58 after a slow start), Duke (beat UNC Greensboro 96-62), Minnesota (beat Tennessee Tech 87-50), Illinois (beat SIU-Edwardsville 96-69. 96 points for U of I???). Notable close calls include Washington, who needed 30 points from Isaiah Thomas to beat Wright State 74-69, and UConn, who got 27 from Jerome Dyson in a 75-66 win over William & Mary. The one big upset of the night: Rider over Mississippi St., 88-74. Rider did shoot 10 of 16 from three, but my pick to win the SEC isn't looking so hot right now. Oh, and Arkansas won 130-68, with Rotnei Clarke shooting 13 for 17 on threes and scoring 51 points.

Saturday, Nov. 14th

Dayton 90, Creighton 80 - The Bluejays were up by as many as 10 in the first half but the Flyers righted the ship in the 2nd half and pulled away late to pick up the early-season win. Creighton, down two of its top forwards, went into the game in a zone and pressured Dayton out of their rhythm. Creighton also shot 56% in the first half. At the start of the 2nd, Chris Wright had his way, scoring 7 points, blocking a shot, and creating 3 fouls in the first two and a half minutes en route to 25 points overall. He will need to have those kinds of days when Dayton gets into funks offensively. Chris Johnson added 18 points and 15 rebounds. As for Creighton, they missed out on a great chance for an at-large win, and that could come back to haunt them in March.

Butler 73, Davidson 62 - The Bulldogs avoided an early-season disappointment by putting it together in the 2nd half after shooting 31% with 7 turnovers in the first 16.5 minutes. Gordon Hayward had 17 and Willie Veasley had 15.

Michigan 97, Northern Michigan 50 - Manny Harris had 18 points, 13 boards, and 10 assists... and this was with 8 minutes in the game. Michigan shot 57% from the field and they rolled.

Sunday, Nov. 15th

More Top 25 teams rolling over nobodies. UNC held off Valpo to win 88-77 and go 3-0, for what it's worth.

Monday, Nov. 16th

Kentucky 72, Miami (OH) 70 - I don't think John Wall anticipated needing to make a 15 footer to win in his college debut, but that's just what he did. Wall finished with 19 points and is already cementing the hero status Kentucky fans gave him thr moment he set foot on campus. Miami packed it in and prevented Wall and Bledsoe from driving much of the game, but the Wildcats still got 32 points in the paint and outrebounded the RedHawks by 12 (mostly due to Patterson and Cousins). Despite this, Miami (OH) shot 15 of 26 from three and jumped out to an 18 point lead in the first half. While they played better offensively today, Kentucky has looked very sloppy early on in the season. Probably all the youth trying to come together as one team (hey, someone warned you all these freshman on one team isn't going to go over so smoothly. Don't worry, I fully expect them to figure it out this year. At some point... maybe)

Western Kentucky 69, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 65 - Best 1st Round game of the Preseason NIT so far. After a quick start by the Hilltoppers, this game remained close the entire way. A. J Slaughter had 30 points on 10 of 16 from the field and WKU shot 51% from the floor compared to 42% for UW-Milwaukee.

Otherwise, Monday was mostly Top 25 teams winning tune-up games and minor upsets (such as Missouri St. over Auburn)

Tuesday:

Game(s) of the Night:

Memphis @ Kansas (St. Louis) - Look, it's the first daily preview and I'm already mired in indecision. We'll start with a rematch of the 2007 National Championship game (for what it's worth). Kansas looks like they could score over 100 points a night in every game they play. The key for Memphis is keeping up with the high-powered Jayhawk offense. Elliot Williams is good, and Wesley Witherspoon, Doneal Mack, and Roburt Sallie form a solid backcourt, but there's definitely a talent disparity between the two squads. Look for Kansas to pound it inside with Aldrich against a smaller Tiger team.

Pick: Kansas 90, Memphis 75

Gonzaga @ Michigan State - In my opinion, the better of the two games. Michigan State is not going to blow anyone out of the water with size or athleticism or shooting, but they do a lot of things very well and are a complete team. Well, except at center. Meanwhile, the Zags are attempting to replace a lot of key contributors from last year. Matt Bouldin will be the leader of this squad, as he was on Saturday vs. Miss Valley State. Gonzaga played a lot of guys in their first game and might have a deep rotation as Mark Few tries to find his regulars. Gonzaga, as always, has a tough non-conference schedule, with games still upcoming against Washington State, Wake Forest, @ Duke, Oklahoma, and @ Illinois, so we'll know what the Zags are made of by mid-January.

Pick: Michigan State 82, Gonzaga 70

Others to watch:

Temple @ Georgetown - Time to find if G-Town is for real, early. This isn't a big test, but Temple is the kind of team that can get you if you're not ready.

Arkansas @ Louisville - Might be a fun non-conference matchup between power conference schools. Louisville's season debut will be against an Arkansas team that is only dressing 8 guys due to suspensions.

Northeastern @ Siena - Bracket Busters in November. One of the top teams in the Colonial faces off against one of last year's cinderellas who is currently just outside the Top 25. Fun times.

Season Preview: Preaseason Tournaments

First a quick update: my wrist surgery went well but I am currently typing with one hand, making this a very slow process. I am still blogging but it will be slower than before. The show must go on, right? Anyway, continuing on with season previews, here's a look at the major preseason tournaments starting this week. A part two will begin next week for Turkey Day preseason tournaments. And here we go:

Coaches v. Cancer:

Nov. 9-13, 19-20

Favorite: UNC. The Tar Heels had no problems in their first two games. Plenty of talent and depth is present, and Larry Drew and Marcus Ginyard looked fine. Still the most athletic team in this tournament.

Others: Ohio State. Evan Turner can't do it all, but he'll try. This team is right on the border of "scary good" right now.

Cal. If they're shooting well, they can beat anyone in the country. Probably the best backcourt in this tournament with Randle and Christopher.

Sleeper: Syracuse. It's evident that they lost a lot of talent and will be fairly thin across the board. But if Rautins shoots well and they get significant offense from guys like Wesely Johnson and Rick Jackson, they could surprise.

Preseason NIT:

Nov. 16-17, 25, 27

Favorite: Duke. Until a young UConn squad proves themselves, I'll go with the more proven Blue Devils. Duke looked just fine on Friday even with Nolan Smith and Mason Plumlee out. Scheyer and Singler will log plenty of minutes and carry this team.

Others: UConn. Every starter logged 30 or more minutes in Friday's win over William & Mary. Dyson will be the star, but Kemba Walker will be the key for this squad after losing A. J Price to graduation.

Sleeper: Western Kentucky. A. J Slaughter and Stephon Pettigrew give the Hilltoppers two effective outside shooters and will spread out teams in this tournament. Do they have the size to handle bigger teams, especially Duke and UConn?

Cancun Challenge

Nov. 18-25

Favorite: Kentucky. With Wall out on Friday, Eric Bledsoe and Patrick Patterson led the team. Lots of turnovers, but lots of talent on this Wildcat team.

Others: None. Oral Roberts, Rider, Virginia, and Stanford isn't really the kind of competition that will keep John Calipari up at night (although Rider did just beat Kentucky's biggest competition for the SEC crown, Mississippi St.)

Sleeper: Rider. They shot lights out to take down the Bulldogs on Friday and may challenge Niagara and Siena in the MAAC this year.

Puerto Rico Tip-Off

Nov 19-22

Favorite: Villanova. No struggles for the Wildcats on Friday. The guards will carry this offense, but forwards Mouphtaou Yarou, Antonio Pena, and Taylor King will have to provide some support offensively.

Others: Georgia Tech, Dayton, Mississippi, Kansas State. There's a lot of teams that could take out the Wildcats and win this tournament. My money would be on either the Flyers or the Yellow Jackets.

Sleeper: Mississippi. This team returns three guys who were all hurt last year but played significant minutes the year before. It will be interesting to see how the Rebels fare this week.

Charleston Classic

Nov. 19-22

Favorite: South Carolina. The Gamecocks lead this somewhat depleted field. Finding a 2nd scorer to complement Devan Downey will be key for the Gamecocks if they want to make the tournament this year.

Others: La Salle. The A-10 will show its depth here, as the Explorers are expected to be one of the better teams in this conference and this tournament.

Sleeper: Miami (FL). Dwayne Collins and co. will look to pick up the production of Jack McClinton after his graduation.

Paradise Jam

Nov. 19-22

Favorite: Purdue. The Boilers looked strong on Friday. They will be thin at forward but the backcourt depth is impressive. Watch for frosh Kelsey Barlow, who has impressed in the early season and will fight for minutes in a crowded backcourt.

Others: Tennessee. If these two teams meet in the finals, it will be a classic battle if tempo. Look for the athletic Vols to push the pace more often this season.

Sleeper: Boston College. The Eagles have lots of weapons offensively and good wings with Sanders and Raji. They could emerge from a crowded middle pack in the ACC this year, and this tournament should be a good test of their overall strength.

College Basketball Season Starts!!!

Today is officially the first day of the college basketball season! The first week is pretty slow, with primarily warm up games for Top 25 opponents and other power conference schools. Some preseason tournaments start, but they are primarily initial round-robin games. Tournaments like Coaches v. Cancer have preliminary rounds but four schools automatically advance to the semi-finals. Since those don't take place until next week (and to a larger extent, the week after), this week is devoid of good matchups. Still, I hope to get started on weekday and weekend game previews as soon as possible. Here's what my schedule looks like over the next few weeks:

Today: This post, final Season Preview (hopefully)
Friday: Weekend games to watch
Sunday: Weekend recap, games to watch for upcoming week
Wednesday, Nov. 18: In-depth preseason tournament preview
Every day after: Daily recaps

A somewhat intense schedule, I know. We'll see if I can keep this pace up for the entire year. I figure this weekend and the next two weekends I should have plenty of time to watch and write about college basketball, so might as well use the time well. Enjoy!

Season Preview: Best of the Rest

In my final season preview, I'll highlight some teams not in a power conference that might have a significant impact on how this season turns out. The vast majority of the 342 schools in Division I do not play in power conferences, and many times it's a few of those teams that make the compelling stories of the year. Here's how this is going to work: I'll highlight a few mid-major conferences that might send multiple teams to the NCAA tournament, and then I'll list a few schools from small conferences that could be important as well.

Atlantic 10: The A-10 has been ruled by Xavier the past few seasons, but there are still plenty of quality teams in this conference. This season, Xavier is in a bit of a reloading phase, and so the conference is wide open... unless, of course, Dayton just assumes Xavier's spot as the dominant team.

Dayton: The Flyers return most all of the important players on last year's squad, including league player of the year candidate Chris Wright. Depth and versatility is the name of the game for the Flyers, who have many different options in the frontcourt as well as depth at point guard. The key for Dayton will be outside shooting and offensive efficiency. If they can get better in both of those areas, this is the best team in the conference and a potential Sweet 16 team.

Xavier: It's difficult to bet against the 3 time defending conference champs, but when you lose three of your top players, there will be a rebuilding phase (short as it may be). Jason Love is the top returning scorer and becomes the new leader of the frontcourt. Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford will provide offensive spark and anchor the backcourt. It will be new faces in leadership roles for the Musketeers, but that shouldn't keep them out of the tournament.

Richmond: The Spiders played well at the end of last season and they return 4 starters, making them the best of the rest of the conference. Their Princeton offense is difficult to prepare for, but will they have the size to compete with Dayton and Xavier?

Others: La Salle, Duquesne, Temple

Mountain West: This conference was one big giant mess last year, with three teams finishing in a tie for 1st and another just one game back. The Mountain West has been somewhat crippled due to graduation, but there should be some decent teams and it should be a competitive conference again.

BYU: The only two all-conference selections returning this year both play for the Cougars. Jimmer Fredette and Jonathan Tavernari give BYU a quality guard and wing, respectively. Two other returning starters return to give BYU the best team in the conference (from preseason projections, anyway) and give Cougar fans hope they'll be able to get past the first round in the tournament this year.

UNLV: Transfers Derrick Jasper and Chace Stanback join Tre'Von Willis and a slew of freshman to a Rebel team that is experiencing a lot of turnover this season. The room to move up in the conference is there, but the question will be if UNLV can mesh quickly enough to make a tournament run. San Diego State: The Aztecs were one of those surprise mid-major teams that had few preseason expectations but made things interesting on Selection Sunday. They lose three of their top four scorers from last year, but they have one of the best recruiting classes in the conference coming in, including top 100 prospect Kawhi Leonard. They're in a similar spot to UNLV this season.

Others: New Mexico, Utah

Missouri Valley Conference: It wasn't that long ago (2005-06) that this conference sent 4 teams to the dance. While the conference may never hit that mark again, there's good reason to believe the MVC will send multiple teams to the tournament this season.

Northern Iowa: My favorites to win the conference this year. They are deep, and they spread the ball as well as anyone in the country. They return 9 of their top 10 scorers this year, including 1st team All-Conference forward Adam Koch, and they will look to expand on last year's tournament berth with a first round victory.

Creighton: While they lack depth in the frontcourt, this could be the best backcourt in the conference despite losing 2 key contributors, including conference player of the year Booker Woodfox. The Bluejays had a very good conference season last year, but their lack of a good non-conference win was their downfall. They'll have several chances this year against Dayton and Michigan to get a big win against a Top 25 team. In conference, Creighton should compete for the title again.

Others: Southern Illinois, Illinois State, Wichita State

The best of smaller conferences:

Butler: Last year was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs. If a conference championship and a 7 seed is a rebuilding season, what does this year bring? Butler spreads the ball very well and doesn't have a weak link in their starting five. Whether it's shooters like Zach Hahn, big men like Matt Howard, wings like Gordon Hayward, or guards like Shelvin Mack, this team complements one another very well. The question is, does this team have the athletes to advance beyond the Sweet 16?

Gonzaga: The Zags lost a lot of talent in the offseason, including Austin Daye to the draft and Jeremy Pargo and Matt Heytvelt to graduation. Matt Bouldin, Steven Gray, and Demetri Goodson will form the core of this team and will give the Zags a very talented backcourt. Unlike last year, Gonzaga has question marks in the frontcourt. They will be relying on role players and international players to provide some size and aid the guards offensively and defensively.

Memphis: Just because Cal's gone (along with Tyreke Evans, Robert Dozier, Shawn Taggart, and Antonio Anderson) doesn't mean the Tigers are completely devoid of talent. Guards Doneal Mack, Roburt Sallie, and Willie Kemp will join Duke transfer Eliot Williams as a formidable backcourt. In the frontcourt, JUCO transfer Will Coleman joins Wesley Witherspoon and Pierre Henderson-Niles to give Memphis some size (although they don't have a true 5). The Tigers should be the favorites in the C-USA again... unless some school called Tulsa has anything to say about that (more on that later).

Siena: Last year's small school cinderellas are back again, and with four starters returning again, the Saints will try to advance to the 2nd round for a third season in a row. Point guard Ronald Moore and wing Edwin Ubiles are the likely leaders. The Siena defense forces a lot of turnovers and will look to do the same again this year. The preseason expectations are there, as Siena finished just outside the Top 25, and several tough road games are in place vs. Georgia Tech and Northwern Iowa. It should be interesting to see how Siena fares this season.

Others who could surprise:

Tulsa - the main challengers to Memphis' C-USA dominance. Almost everyone is back from last year's squad that was 2nd best in the league.

Portland - The yearly challenger to take down Gonzaga in the WCC. Similar to Tulsa in that they return every key player.

Niagara - Remember these guys? They gave Siena a game last year in the MEAC final, and they should be back again this year.

Western Kentucky - The best cinderella story of the tournament last year. Orlando Mendez-Valdez is gone, but A. J. Slaughter and Steffphon Pettigrew are back.

Old Dominion - Favorites in the always competitive CAA. Gerald Lee is the guy that makes the Monarch engine run.

Nevada - Most talented team in the WAC, they return two all-conference performers in Luke Babbitt and Armon Johnson.

Akron - Looking for back-to-back MAC championships, they also have a challenging non-conference schedule.

Northeastern - You could probably put George Mason or VCU here to challenge Old Dominion... the Colonial will be fun this season

Oakland - Favorites in the Summit, they lost to Bradley in the finals of the CBI last year and bring back two time all conference player Derick Nelson

Utah State - 30 wins and four starters return? That classifies as significant.

North Texas - The Mean Green are looking to derail the Western Kentucky train in the Sun Belt.

College of Charleston - Favorites in a Stephen Curry-less Southern conference.

*This is just a small snippet of the teams I could talk about.

Season Preview: SEC

The last power conference preview! Today it's the SEC. While this conference was worse than bad last year, the SEC looks to be much improved this year, due to young teams getting a year older and the majority of the top players staying in college. Oh yea, and this guy named John Calipari is coaching at Kentucky. Shall we continue?

The Favorites:

Kentucky: Let me just say that I think the Wildcats are the most intriguing preseason team in college basketball. With one hire the Wildcats went from likely NIT team to National Championship contenders. Calipari was taken away from Memphis after the Billy Gillespie mess, and with him came some of the top recruits in the country, including guard John Wall and 6-11 center DeMarcus Cousins. Both should start alongside Patrick Patterson, and Cousins should allow Patterson to move to the 3 and out on the wing where he should get more freedom to score in a variety of ways. Other freshman coming off the bench include big man and defensive stud Daniel Orton and guard Eric Bledsoe.

Despite all the hype surronding this Wildcats team, let's take a step back for a moment. Yes, they are talented, athletic, and skilled. But when has a team with this many freshman playing so many important minutes ever won the title? The returning players are essentially an NIT team minus Jodie Meeks. Sure, Patterson is very good, and Stevenson is solid at the 5, but the rest of these guys are basically role players. There is very little experienced leadership coming back. Due to that fact, and the number of question marks surrounding the young freshman, I am not going to pick Kentucky to win the SEC this year. That being said, I reserve the right to change my picks at any time (as always!)

Mississippi State: Yes, I am taking the Bulldogs to win the conference. Why? They return the best shotblocker in the country in Jarvis Vernardo, and one of the better point guards in the country in Dee Bost. Add in Ravern Johnson, a 40% shooter from three, and 2nd leading scorer Barry Stewart, and Mississippi State has plenty of backcourt experience returning. There's plenty of other contributors returning to a team that caught fire in last year's SEC tournament and took it all.

There is definitely a question as to where the ceiling lies for this Bulldogs team. Obviously, it's not as big as Kentucky's. Vernardo would do well to improve his game offensively to complement his status as a defensive player. As it stands, this team has a lot of experience returning and looks to be the strongest of the improved SEC West division.

Team that could surprise:

Vanderbilt: The SEC, like other major conferences, is somewhat muddled in the middle and many teams could emerge as tournament contenders. I'm going to take the Commodores, who return one of the few true centers in the league (and the nation) in A. J. Ogilvy. Excellent shooters Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley return as well, and incoming freshman John Jenkins has a reputation as a sharp shooter, so the threes will be flying in Nashville. Also, it's never fun to play in Vandy. The Commodore will surprise some people this year.

Team that could disappoint:

Kentucky: This is a no-brainer for me, only because expectations are so high. To some extent, I can't blame them... they got one of the best coaches in the college game and the clear #1 recruiting class in the nation. It's just a lot of pressure to put on youngsters, even if they're guys like John Wall who are ready for it. I think this is definitely a Sweet 16 team. I'm just not sure if they're a championship caliber team yet.

Picks:

SEC East

1. Kentucky: Still the best in this division.
2. Tennessee: They return all five starters, although I question how good this team can be overall.
3. Vanderbilt: Ogilvy and a host of outside shooters are ready to make a significant jump this season.
4. South Carolina: Difficult to pick against Devan Downey and four starters, but they'll have to find a 2nd scorer to replace Zam Fredrick.
5. Florida: Someone needs to take the leadership role Nick Calathes assumed last year, but the talent is there.
6. Georgia: Somewhat overmatched in a difficult division.

SEC West

1. Mississippi State: Some have been predicting Final Four for the Bulldogs. Seems a little optimistic to me, but SEC champ is not unrealistic.
2. Mississippi: The Rebels return three starters who were hurt last year. They will be deep and talented, especially in the backcourt.
3. Arkansas: Young team last year beat Texas and Oklahoma and will be ready for SEC play this season.
4. LSU: Lost their three top producers, but Tasmin Mitchell is back, and that should keep the Tigers from slipping too far.
5. Alabama: Anthony Grant will have this team ready in time, but not this year.
6. Auburn: Too much talent is gone and not enough talent replaces them.

Tournament teams:

Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Mississippi

Season Preview: Pac 10

Two years ago the Pac-10 was arguably the best conference in the nation. This year, the conference is a shell of its former self, losing most of its big name talent to graduation and the draft. As always, that means lots of turnover on top of the conference and a big mess in the middle. Only two Pac-10 teams made the preseason top 25 poll, and they're names you wouldn't expect when you list traditional Pac-10 basketball powerhouses. In fact, those powerhouses, like UCLA and Arizona, will likely be fighting just to make the tournament this season.

The Favorites:

Washington: The Huskies are probably the closest thing to a title contender in the Pac-10 this season. Their backcourt of Isaiah Thomas, Abdul Gaddy, and Venoy Overton is, in my opinion, the best in the conference. The frontcourt is manned by wingman Quincy Pondexter, who made great strides offensively at the end of last season. However, forward Jon Brockman is gone, meaning the Huskies need to replace their best rebounder and inside scorer. Talented wing Justin Dentmon is gone too. Washington will have a good starting 5 this year but depth could be an issue, and they don't really have anyone to replace Brockman in the post (or Dentmon for that matter, although Pondexter could fill his production).

Cal: The Golden Bears will be in every game they play this year because they are one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. They return nearly every major component from a team that was #1 in 3 pt shooting percentage (almost 43% from three!). The backcourt remains completely intact from last year with Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher forming an excellent duo at 1 and 2 guard. Cal is not neccessarily small, although forwards Harper Kamp and Theo Robinson are coming back from offseason surgery. Jamal Boykin is a monster on the glass and should round out the starting five. The bench contains some solid players, like guard Jorge Gutierrez, but Cal seemed to run a short bench last year and will likely do the same this year.

Team likely to surprise:

Arizona: After Cal and Washington, the Pac-10 is wide, wide open this season. The Wildcats have some humongous shoes to replace in Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill, but they do return one of the best guards in the league in Nic Wise and have a star studded recruiting class coming in (thanks to USC and the Tim Floyd situation). While picking a team with so many new pieces to finish top three in the league may seem a little farfetched, let me remind you that the general consensus pick for 3rd place in the conference (UCLA) is losing their top four producers. That's when you know there's a little bit of mediocrity in the Pac-10. Also a candidate for this spot is Washington State, who gets an up-tempo coach in Ken Bone and has some nice pieces to play with for this upcoming season.

Team likely to disappoint:

UCLA: With so many teams having lowered expectations this year, it's difficult to choose a team that could finish below them. Oregon needs to have a good season to keep Ernie Kent's job intact. But I'll take the Bruins, who haven't lost this many important players since before their Final Four runs. There will likely be 7 freshman or sophomores fighting for significant playing time, and this team could run into some problems early. It's unreasonable (even by my leiniant standards this preseason) to expect them to finish anywhere below 5th in conference, but even that may mean an NIT bid this season.

Predicted Finish:

1. Washington: Most complete team in the conference. Over the long haul, that usually wins out.
2. Cal: Great knockout potential, but can they live up to the expectations?
3. Arizona: Probably a little outrageous, but there is no substitute for athleticism and talent.
4. Oregon State: The Beavers give hope for all the DePauls, Iowas, and North Carolina States of the world.
5. UCLA: It will be interesting to see who emerges on a team that doesn't have a clear leader at this point.
6. Washington State: Klay Thompson and DeAngelo Casto form a solid basis to build off.
7. Oregon: The Ducks will likely need to finish higher than this to save Ernie Kent's job.
8. USC: Hope is on the way next year, but program is currently in shambles after the Tim Floyd fiasco.
9. Arizona St.: No Harden? No Pendergraph? Back to square one for the Sun Devils.
10. Stanford: Most people aren't feeling the Cardinal this year.

Tournament Teams:

Washington, Cal, Arizona, UCLA

Season Preview: Big 10

Ah yes, the Big Ten. My country. I feel like I know this conference the best since I watch these teams the most. That doesn't mean my predictions will be any good, but still... anyway, the Big Ten has become quite a formidable conference in just a few years, and after Michigan State's big tournament run last year, the top of the conference has proven they can compete with the big boys. 1 through 11, this conference is as deep as it gets in college basketball.

The Favorites:

Purdue: Come on... you didn't honestly think I wasn't gonna pick my Boilers to win the conference, did you? I will admit we may be small, we may have some depth issues, and we may not be the most athletic team out there. But last year when Purdue peaked, we took out a tough Washington team in what was basically a road game and then put up a good fight against a very, very good UConn team. And that was without Robbie Hummel at 100%. This year, he claims he's perfectly healthy, which is a scary thought.

We all know what Hummel can do when he's healthy, but they key will be the guys around him. JuJuan Johnson took a huge step up last year (I called that one, by the way) but needs to get stronger to take his game to the next level. He will also have to shoulder a bigger load in the paint now that Nemanja Calasan is gone and Sandi Marcius is out with a broken foot. E'Twaun Moore gets a ton of national praise and was our leading scorer, but he needs to be more selective with his shots. Lewis Jackson must mature another year at the point, and Grant needs to become the shooter he was two years ago. If all of that (or most of that) can happen, I truly believe this is a Final Four team. And the Final Four's in Indy. The sky's the limit.

Michigan State: It's difficult to pick against the National runners-up, especially when they return most of their production. Kalin Lucas is back. Raymar Morgan should be 100% healthy for the entire season. Durrell Summers and Chris Allen solidify the Spartan backcourt, and they should also have a slew of wings/power forwards to choose from in Morgan, Delvon Roe, and Draymond Green. Basically, this team goes 2 deep at every position and we should expect a decent spread of minutes again this year.

By far the biggest contributor leaving is Suton. He did so much for the Spartans, whether it's rebounding, defense, shooting, leadership. Michigan State has plenty of options to replace him, but no one will likely provide the production across the board that Suton did. They also lose guard Travis Walton who provided defense and leadership. From reading about Michigan State, I feel they are at a bit of a crossroads. They can move forward and make another title run, or fall back into that clutter 2nd tier pack of teams. It will be interesting to see how this team develops as the season progresses.

Team who could surprise:

Northwestern: I have two different routes I could take here. I could tell you Ohio State has the potential to be a top 5 team (somewhat out there, but also somewhat boring) or I could call for the Wildcats to make their first tournament appearance ever. I'll go with the latter. Northwestern returns almost every major piece from a team that was probably one win away from making the tournament last year. They'll have to find a point guard to replace Craig Moore, but if they can find a guy that can handle the ball somewhat and can shoot, the Wildcats will probably be better than last year. They were the most frustrating team to prepare for in the Big Ten last season, and after wins at Purdue and at Michigan State, they have knockout power. This is the year they will get it done.

Team who could disappoint:

Illinois: While most teams in the conference improved this season, I think the Illini are going to take a slight step back. They lost Trent Meachem and Chester Frazier, along with their defense and leadership. There are a few good freshman, but they will have to immediately step up and contribute. D. J. Richardson is very highly touted and should start right away, but Brandon Paul and Tyler Griffey will have to produce right away off the bench. Illinois must become less of a jump shooting team and start getting to the basket more. They have the tools to become a good offensive team, but in a deep league defensively, I think this young team will struggle.

Picks:

1. Purdue: A healthy Hummel will make all the difference in the world.
2. Michigan State: Was this team for real, or just last year's feel good story?
3. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have the potential to be a top 5 team. Evan Turner is the best player in the conference.
4. Michigan: They have the talent to jump up a spot of two from this position... if they can find a PG.
5. Minnesota: The definition of steady, you know what you're going to get from this team. 65 points a game, slow pace, good defense.
6. Northwestern: The element of surprise is gone this year. Will teams be able to adequately prepare for their style?
7. Illinois: Demetri McCamey needs to become a more consistent scorer instead of just showing flashes of greatness.
8. Wisconsin: I feel like this pick is going to come back and get me, but somebody has to finish 8th. The losses are too great this year.
9. Indiana: The youngsters will be good down the road, but too difficult of a conference this season.
10. Penn State: Teams will start doubling Talor Battle... and then tripling if they have to.
11. Iowa: Football team will likely stay undefeated longer than the basketball team.

Tournament Teams:

Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois