Bubble Watch - Jan 25th

Sorry about not posting lately... I've been very busy, and assembling a bubble watch for the entire country is a good deal of work. But it's what I love to do, so I don't mind. Anyway, here's the landscape for the nation as of Monday, January 25th. Contenders are starting to emerge, both for the national title and for making the tournament. If you're not thinking about March, you better start to... it's coming up soon. If your team doesn't have that big win, they better get to work.

ACC

Well, the ACC is shaping up to be a competitive conference, if not a particularly strong one. No one team looks strong enough to continuously win on the road, meaning the conference winner could have 4-5 losses. Duke’s probably the strongest of the bunch, followed by a bunch of middling top 25 teams. And when I mean a bunch, I’m talking like a half dozen teams here. The ACC might get 7 teams in, but none of them may make it past the first weekend.

Locks: Duke

Should be in:

Georgia Tech: Too many good wins to say this team isn’t in, but they’re still inconsistent, so I’ll keep them out of a lock at this point.

Clemson: Could’ve really used a win over Duke at home. As it stands, the Tigers still aren’t in any real danger, despite their .500 record in the ACC. But they’d be advised to not lose to Boston College on Tuesday.

Bubble teams:

Wake Forest: If it wasn’t for the home loss to William & Mary (which isn’t really all that bad), Wake would probably be a stage up right now. They are playing well in conference, though, and are on the right track. They have wins @ Gonzaga and vs. Richmond and Xavier. Loss @ Miami is looking worse but still not terrible. Important road game @ Georgia Tech on Thursday.

UNC: The losses are really starting to pile up now, after falling at home to Wake Forest on Wednesday. Still have good wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech. Those wins are definitely better than almost any bubble team in the country, but there’s a really good chance they may have around 11 losses, and that would be just games I would have them as an underdog. That’s a lot of losses to overcome. They really need to win @ NC State on Tuesday.

Florida State: Got a good win at home vs. Georgia Tech on Sunday for the season sweep. Losses @ Florida and @ Ohio State with Evan Turner are nothing to be ashamed of, and good neutral court wins over Alabama and Marquette help as well. The Seminoles seem to have righted the ship after a rough patch in the ACC.

Virginia Tech: Just escaped at home vs. BC to avoid putting themselves in a serious bind. The Hokies will be a very interesting case. Home vs. Seton Hall and home vs. Miami are their best wins so far, which probably aren’t good enough to get them in the tournament, but it’s not like they’re that much further behind the rest of the conference. A couple of road games against fellow ACC bubblers before UNC comes to town on February 4^th.

Likely not in:

Miami: Lost to Boston College again and they are now 1-4 in conference. Excellent non-conference slate against a weak schedule capped by win over Minnesota, but at some point you gotta start winning conference games.

Maryland: Got a home wins vs. Florida State and NC State and are 3-1 in the ACC, which is solid so far. Indiana is their next best win though. All in all, 10+ wins are probably necessary in conference to get the Terps in.

North Carolina State: All in all, not really feeling the Wolfpack, as they can’t seem to beat middle of the pack ACC teams at home or on the road (although apparently they can beat Duke). I’ll keep an eye on them, but I’m not expecting a serious move towards a bid.

Virginia: No shame in losing @ Wake Forest, but that’s probably a game Virginia could’ve used considering their subpar non-conference showing. The margin of error is slim to none for the Cavaliers right now.

Big East

This is shaping up to be a very deep conference. Clear leaders are emerging (Villanova, Syracuse) but after that it’s becoming somewhat of a clouded mess. Can they get 10 in? It’s not unreasonable, although they’ll probably eat at least one of two of their own before conference play is up.

Locks: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, Pitt

Should be in: None

Bubble teams:

UConn: Big, big time win over Texas makes me feel much better about UConn’s tournament chances. It’s the defining win the Huskies have been looking for. Of course, there’s still the matter of the .500 conference record, losses that continue to pile up, and lack of depth to their resume, but for now all is well. Should win @ Providence on Wednesday and would do well to take the Marquette home game on Saturday.

Cincinnati: Lost road games to Seton Hall and St. John’s which isn’t really the mark of a tournament team. At least they got the home win vs. ND. Wins vs. Vanderbilt, and the UConn win helps, but they’re probably moving the wrong way right now. Righted the ship somewhat with a win over South Florida on Wednesday.

Notre Dame: Lost @ Cincinnati, but that’s not really the end of the world. West Virginia win still looms large. Still the ugly Loyola Marymount home loss on their schedule. @ Villanova awaits on Wednesday. Can they get to .500 in conference? It may be enough if they're able to.

Louisville: Lost @ Seton Hall on Thursday and still don’t have a marquee win to speak of (home vs. Cincinnati is the closest thing to that). They have wins against fellow bubblers Providence and St. John’s though. Cardinals didn’t play a difficult non-conference slate as it was, but they still lost to the only tough teams on their schedule.

Seton Hall: Alright, then. The Pirates reel off back-to-back good wins at home to make some noise in the conference. Looking ahead at their schedule, there’s a very real possibility they get 10-11 wins in conference without hitting a major upset. Will that be enough? They don’t have the non-conference slate (best win is Cornell) to back them up. Just keep winning, I guess.

Likely not in:

Marquette: Ugly road loss to DePaul and loss @ Syracuse leaves Marquette at 2-5 in conference play. With their schedule so far, they need all the gimmes they can get. Wins over Xavier and Georgetown are the positives. They are just 11-8, though, and eight losses at this point in the season leaves little to no room for error.

St. John's: Led early vs. Villanova but couldn’t hold it. Can they get in with a .500 record in conference? They do have wins at Temple and vs. Siena. It would be close, but I’m leaning towards no. And that’s if they get to .500, which would be tough for them.

South Florida: Just simply too many better teams in conference.

Big Ten

In Big Ten country, a clear elite group is also emerging. Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State have separated themselves from the pack.

Locks: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Should be in:

Ohio State: With Turner back, it’s only a matter of time before this team moves into lock status. Win over Wisconsin on Saturday showed that. Loss @ West Virginia was not a big deal (although it would’ve helped with seeding).

Bubble Teams:

Minnesota: It’s a shame they couldn’t pull it out vs. Michigan State, as that probably would’ve moved them up a level. At 3-4 in conference and with a loss @ Indiana, Minnesota is quietly slipping in the wrong direction. Still, they have the neutral court win over Butler and a win over Turner-less Ohio State, but losses can and have piled up quickly in conference. Must beat Northwestern at home on Tuesday.

Northwestern: Beat Illinois at home on Saturday but couldn’t get the road win @ Ohio State last Tuesday. I’m not entirely sure what to do with Northwestern at this point. They have wins vs. Purdue, Iowa State, and Notre Dame and no bad losses. However, they haven’t really passed the eye test from what I’ve seen so far. The jury is out on this one.

Likely not in:

Illinois: Three straight conference losses makes it eight total for the Illini, and they appear too young to put together any sort of consistent run. Also have three bad non-conference losses, which is a lot to overcome for any team.

Big 12

They rival the Big East at the top, with three legitimate top 10 teams, but outside of that the drop-off is fairly steep. I’ll keep Kansas State as a lock for now despite the home loss to Oklahoma State. I’d be surprised if they got less than 6 teams in. 7 might be a stretch though.

Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State

Should be in:

Texas A & M: I’m probably higher on the Aggies then most people, but all 5 losses are to very good opponents and they have a couple of good wins over Minnesota and Clemson at neutral sites. They still have Kansas and Texas at home, and if they can get one of those, they should be able to get to 10 wins in conference, which would be plenty to get in. Even if they don’t, they’re still probably good.

Bubble teams:

Baylor: No major wins, but a lot of good ones. Solid road wins over South Carolina and Arkansas, a neutral court win over Xavier, and a home win over Oklahoma State. Losses to Alabama (neutral) and @ Colorado aren’t all that good but manageable. A win at Kansas on Wednesday night would be huge, but they’ll settle for a split this week. They need all the conference wins they can get, but they could very well be the 4^th best team in this conference, which would likely mean 10 wins.

Missouri: Split back-to-back Saturdays against @ Oklahoma (L) and Nebraska (W). Won at home over Kansas State, but the win against Illinois is looking worse, though, and they have a not-so-pretty loss to Oral Roberts on there as well. Mizzou’s tournament chances will likely come down to their ability to win games on the road, as they are currently 1-3 in true road games.

Oklahoma State: The Kansas State road win defines what was turning into a very lackluster resume. Their next best win is home vs. Texas Tech, so the depth isn’t there, but it’s a start. Keep it going with a home win vs. Texas A & M on Wednesday and you’ll probably be in (for now.)

Likely not in:

Texas Tech: Rebounded by beating Oklahoma at home on Saturday, but that was the easy one. Washington win has plummeted in value, and that’s really all they have at this point (other than maybe UTEP at home). If they can take down Texas in Austin on Wednesday, I’ll reconsider.

Oklahoma: A couple of good wins over Oklahoma State and Missouri, but the Sooners will need more to counter-act so many losses. 11-8 is not going to get it done.

Iowa State: Whiffed on all four chances to get a solid non-conference win (Northwestern, Northern Iowa, Cal, Duke) and missed Kansas on Saturday, meaning their best win is probably @ Nebraska. Not a bad team, but definitely NIT-caliber right now.

Nebraska: Hanging on by a thread after starting 0-4 in conference. (@ Missouri)

Pac-10

This conference continues to amaze me. There’s a good chance that nobody is worthy of an at-large bid and so only the auto bid will get in. Think about it… Washington’s struggled in early conference play. Cal doesn’t have the wins. Arizona State doesn’t exactly have a stellar resume either. I don’t know if anyone’s going to have the wins to get in on their own.

Locks: None

Should be in: None

Bubble teams:

Cal: Beat both the Oregons and are now in sole possession of first place in the Pac-10. With Washington’s demise, this team is likely the Pac-10’s best shot at an at-large. Outside of a home loss to UCLA, every other loss is reasonable for a tournament team. Their biggest weakness remains the lack of quality wins, which they really won’t get much help with for the rest of the year. If they can separate themselves enough from the rest of the conference to get 14 wins or so, they will probably get the nod from the committee. But at this rate, 12-6 might win the conference, and then things will get ugly.

Arizona State: Just as I thought a semi-favorite was emerging in conference, they go out and lose to Arizona at home. They pass the sight test to an extent, as I thought Arizona State looked pretty good at MSG against Duke, and their non-conference slate was fairly good considering what they have to work with. Their overall body of work is a little less spectacular, although they do have a good home win vs. Washington. I really don’t think the resume would hold up to other bubble teams at this point, but the Pac-10 winner will have a somewhat strong case. I don’t know.

Washington: There’s a good amount of people keeping Washington out of the tournament altogether, and I agree 100%. Look at their resume. Does this look like a tournament team to you? It sure doesn’t to me. What a shame.

Likely not in:

Washington State: Still no major wins and currently at .500 in a weak conference. I’m thinking NIT unless something turns around quickly.

Not in: USC. This special section is to remind people that even though USC has played well recently, they have banned themselves due to the O. J. Mayo stuff. They won't play in the Pac-10 tournament either.

SEC

Kentucky and Vanderbilt continue to roll along. Tennessee remains a lock for now, but I would not recommend losing to teams like Georgia anymore. The SEC solidly has 5 teams in, and could get a sixth if Florida makes a run.

Locks: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Should be in:

Mississippi State: The loss @ Alabama is probably not enough to knock them back too far, but I get the feeling this Bulldogs team is underachieving. Oh well.

Mississippi: Not in any real danger at this point. Continue winning the gimmes and the Rebels will be safely in.

Bubble teams:

Likely not in:

Florida: The Michigan State and Florida State wins can only carry you so far. Florida’s clearly 4^th in the pecking order in the East and will need some wins against the top three to get in.

Atlantic 10:

Things behind Temple are starting to get somewhat muddled. Dayton and Rhode Island are moving in the wrong direction, while Xavier is holding steady. Can Charlotte make a run at a tournament spot? This conference could get anywhere from 2 to 5 teams in right now.

Locks: Temple

Should be in: None

Bubble teams:

Xavier: Man, don’t ever consider a team with three straight conference titles dead. They’re 5-1 with only a loss @ conference leading Temple. Good home win over Rhode Island on Saturday. The non-conference isn’t the best, with five losses and only a double OT win over Cincinnati to show for it. Their margin of error is slim, but they’re doing what’s necessary.

Dayton: Uh oh. The loss @ St. Joseph’s makes things interesting. Dayton hasn’t had a good win in about a month and a half and the St. Joseph’s loss gives the committee ammo to keep them out. A couple of good wins vs. Georgia Tech and Old Dominion. Dayton’s still probably in if the season ended today though.

Rhode Island: The Xavier win could’ve been huge for a team in need of some good wins. Record is still awesome, but most of those wins were against relative cupcakes. They go to Dayton on Tuesday, who is reeling. Perfect opportunity to get a quality win, on the road too.

Likely not in:

Charlotte: I’ll put them in there for now, as the Louisville win is looking better, but still not enough on the resume to make a serious case.

Mountain West

Another conference where parity may cost a team a bid, although in the MWC’s case BYU appears to be pulling away from the pack. Colorado State has started off strong, but they played some easy teams early. Outside of BYU, three teams appear to have significant cases to make the tournament. One of two will likely fall out along the way.

Locks: BYU

Should be in:

New Mexico: Their two losses in conference aren’t really that bad, and unlike the other bubble teams in the conference, they can afford a not-so-stellar conference record. BYU comes to town Wednesday for what should be an awesome game.

Bubble Teams:

UNLV: Would be in much better shape had they not lost at home to Utah. As it stands, They have wins vs. Louisville, @ New Mexico, vs. San Diego St., and a couple of assorted not as good wins. Probably in right now, but they don’t want to test the committee any more. That means no losing until February 6^th at home vs. BYU.

Likely not in:

San Diego State: Tough loss at Wyoming hurts a team that has really no margin of error. Won at home vs. New Mexico, which is nice, but they may be a victim of the parity of the conference.

Others:

The mid-major landscape has been a bit of a mixed bag at this point. They have benefitted greatly from the fallout of a power conference (the Pac-10) but all of those spots will likely be taken by the A-10 and MWC, meaning at-large bids will be at a premium again for smaller conferences. Several likely candidates have emerged but none are really pulling away from the pack.

Locks: Gonzaga, Butler

Should be in:

Northern Iowa: Lost at Wichita State, but that will happen in a tough conference and that’s only their 2^nd loss of the year. The MVC champ will get a bid, and that means UNI is in good shape.

Bubble Teams:

St. Mary's: Lost their best shot at home vs. Gonzaga, but did beat Portland. Decent wins over San Diego State and Oregon. It may come down to beating Gonzaga once in their three shots at them this season (should they meet in the WCC tournament).

Cornell: One of the most interesting cases we may see this season. My opinion on the Big Red: if you can’t beat Harvard in a best of three (split the regular season matchups, lose in a playoff to determine Ivy League winner), you shouldn’t be in. Plus if they don’t, they don’t have the wins to get in. Sorry. It would be fun to see them going up against some unfortunate 5 or 6 seed in the first round though.

Old Dominion: Tied with George Mason and Northeastern for the league lead, ODU has the big out of conference win vs. Georgetown but have 5 losses. They are the best team in the Colonial but they may not get an at-large if they don’t win the tournament, even if they win the conference.

UAB: One of four undefeated teams in conference. The Blazers have been the best team in the C-USA thus far, and have wins over Cincinnati and Butler. Losses to Kent St. and Virginia do hurt.

Memphis: Forgetting the name, the Tigers really have done little to suggest they're a tournament team. They do have some big games in conference, though, and are still a definite contender to win the C-USA.

In Contention:

None of these teams will be in at the moment, but they're some names to remember: William & Mary, VCU, Tulsa, UTEP, William & Mary, Tulsa, UTEP, Wichita State, Portland, Siena, Utah State, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Harvard.

Wednesday, Jan. 13th in College Basketball

The reason why conference play is so valuable (and interesting) for a college basketball fan is because it blatantly shows a team's true weakness. Perhaps this is because teams lose consistently in conference play, and you really don't find out about a team's weakness until they do lose, but whatever the reason, conference play is the area where you start to find out how a team matches up against decent opponents and what their limitations are. For example, there were a number of losses by top 25 teams yesterday, and by analyzing those games we can discover not only why they lost the game but if that reason concurs with the team's previous results. Wow, that totally sounded like a scientific paper. Anyway, on to the analysis:

Purdue

Why they lost: Among several reasons, Evan Turner, lack of transition defense, lack of bench scoring, Evan Turner, lack of quickness on the perimeter, inability to create shots, and Evan Turner.

Is this a trend?: Sort of. Outside of Moore, Hummel, and Johnson, we don't have any consistent scoring. This isn't the end of the world... unless one or more of those guys decides to have an off day (like Johnson did). The number of teams that can shut down Johnson or decide to try this hard to shut down Johnson are few, so this isn't a huge problem. Also, not everyone has Evan Turner. The scarier problem is the general lack of athleticism and quickness... not an issue when you're playing shut-down defense and only need to score 65-70 points to win, but the defense hasn't been there recently.

Can this team compete for a Final Four spot?: Yes, although the margin for error is slimmer than most teams. Purdue has to execute on both sides of the ball for the better part of 40 minutes, while other teams around them can get by on size, athleticism, shooting, or a combination of those three.

Florida State

Why they lost: They couldn't stop Scott Wood (31 pts, 7-11 from three).

Is this a trend?: Not really. The Seminoles aren't bad at stopping the three, and few guys are going to get that hot consistently. The bigger problem for Florida State (which, oddly enough, didn't show up tonight) is that they can't put the ball in the bucket consistently, mainly due to turnovers.

Can this team compete for a Sweet 16 spot?: Eh... I love their size, and they're strong defensively, but they just don't have the weapons to compete against the top teams. Maybe with good matchups they can make it past the first weekend, but I doubt it.

Baylor

Why they lost: Too many turnovers, and shot half as many free throws as Colorado did.

Is this a trend?: Yes. Baylor hasn't really faced the types of teams that can really hurt you if you turn the ball over as much as they do, and they're a good defensive team, mainly due to their size.

Can they make the tournament?: I'm going to say yes, but it might be pretty close. At best, Baylor is probably the fifth best team in this conference and they may be a .500 team in conference, which is probably enough to get it done, but not much more than a 10 or 11 seed. I doubt they get any farther than that.

This is the kind of analysis we can do to see where teams should end up come tournament time. In the meanwhile, we have games to play... starting with a couple of very important ACC showdowns:

Game of the Night:

UNC @ Clemson: Important game for both teams. Clemson could use a solid win to remove the ugly performance at Duke from people's heads. UNC could use a very good win to remove the ugly performance at College of Charleston from their heads. I told myself a week ago that the ACC is so parity-filled that I am pretty much just going to pick the home team every time, but I have other reasons to pick Clemson. Namely, they'll turn over UNC and attempt to get easy buckets in transition. Typically, high pressure, high turnover teams like Clemson feed off of crowd energy, and I think Clemson will do that and pick up a solid conference win.

Pick: Clemson 79, UNC 73

Others:

Minnesota @ Michigan State: Sparty looks to defend home court tonight against a good opponent.

Pitt @ UConn: The Panthers have erased all memory of the Indiana loss and look to continue to roll over an overrated (in my opinion) Husky team.

Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Both teams need this... Northwestern, to stay in good shape to make the tournament, and Wisconsin, to show they're serious about contending for a Big Ten title.

Missouri @ Texas Tech: Important bubble battle in the Big 12.

Cincinnati @ St. John's: Ditto, for the Big East.

Miami @ Virginia Tech: Ditto, for the ACC.

San Diego State @ UNLV: Ditto, for the... oh, you get the idea.

Monday, Jan. 11th in College Basketball

Great weekend in college basketball. Five top 10 teams, including two undefeateds, lost this weekend, meaning there could be some significant changes in the top 25. Or maybe not. I'll let you know whether these teams are still legitimate top 10 teams or not... starting with the soon to be former #1 team in the land.

Kansas: The biggest problem facing the Jayhawks over the past week has been the fact that they've had one reliable scorer, and that's Sherron Collins. Xavier Henry's shooting percentage and scoring is down and appears to be rushing shots. Cole Aldrich is not the offensive weapon he was last year, and neither is Tyshawn Taylor. When on, Kansas spreads the ball well and consistently gets good shots, and that hasn't happened of late. Is this a trend? Maybe. Kansas is still strong defensively and more athletic than almost anyone they play, so they can deal with offensive struggles for small stretches. If they want to compete for a title, though, someone other than Collins needs to make big shots down the stretch.

Verdict: Legit

Purdue: My Boilers gave up a 17-4 run to Wisconsin at the beginning of the 2nd half and never recovered. Wisconsin is a very good team, especially at the Kohl Center, so the loss itself doesn't give too much cause for concern. I don't feel like Purdue played poorly, either, so in one sense there aren't any new problems. The way to beat Purdue is probably the same way I always thought you beat Purdue: quickness on the perimeter. Trevon Hughes, Jason Bohannon (who can actually drive to the basket now!) and Jordan Taylor killed us off the dribble drive. Oh, and hopefully JaJuan won't go 1-7 from the line again. Our help defense is still the best in the Big Ten, though, and it will take an extremely good offensive effort for 40 minutes to beat us.

Verdict: Legit

Duke: Duke's strength is supposed to be in the post, where they have a lot of bodies to throw at people. The problem is, when they face teams with size, they don't seem to play well offensively. The same was true with UConn (although UConn is a pretty good defensive team). Duke shoots over 40% from three normally, but they couldn't create decent shots consistently against the Georgia Tech defense. Duke's lack of depth in the backcourt and skill in the frontcourt means that they're probably not that much better than the rest of their conference. They'll get their wins, but there are a number of ACC teams I'd probably pick to win at home vs. Duke. In my opinion, that's not the sign of a top 10 team.

Verdict: Not Legit

West Virginia: I was sold on this team earlier, but after their loss to Purdue and loss at Notre Dame, I'm not so sure. They're still pretty big, and strong defensively, but they really don't have a lot of speed in the backcourt and they don't get to the line very often, meaning the offense can stall for stretches. The fact that they shot 37 threes and only 4 free throws is not a good sign for the offense. Of course, it's also not safe to assume Da'Sean Butler is going to go 4-20 from the floor again like he did @ ND. Overall, West Virginia is very good, but probably not in the same class as Villanova and Syracuse. And maybe even Georgetown.

Verdict: Not Legit

North Carolina: They were top 10 at the beginning of the week but will not be this week after losing to College of Charleston.

Verdict: Not Legit

So where does that leave us for a top 10? I'd probably put these 10 teams there for now: Texas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Purdue, Villanova, Michigan State, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Tennessee.

Okay, on to Monday. Not a ton of good games on the schedule. As usual, a Big East matchup headlines the day:

Game of the Night:

Villanova @ Louisville: I've decided over the past few days I need to take a closer look at the Cardinals as a tournament team. Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa have taken on bigger roles in the offense and have thrived as a result. Defensively, they've been strong recently, although they have had their struggles at points this season. Their resume suggests to me they're right on the bubble. Which leads me into tonight's game... a win over a clear top 10 team would probably put the Cardinals on the right side of the bubble right now. Problem is, Louisville likes to speed up teams with pressure, and Nova's comfortable playing like that. Villanova gets the big road win tonight.

Pick: Villanova 87, Louisville 81

Others:

Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma: The Bedlam game holds important tournament implications for both teams. For the Cowboys, it's some much needed respect. They kicked the stuffing out of Texas Tech to start Big 12 play and look to pick up a good road conference win tonight. Oklahoma, meanwhile, lost badly at Baylor and really, really need some big wins.

10 Games to Watch: Jan. 9th

Time to mix it up a bit. Rather than just list a bunch of games on Saturday, I'm going to proceed in a more organized fashion and list 10 games to pay attention and watch if possible. Oh, and one mid major special. Got it? Good. Let's begin:

Mid-Major Special:

UNLV @ New Mexico: Everyone's favorite mid-major surprise team, the Lobos, are an early victim of the Mountain West's depth (lost @ San Diego State) and could very easily be 0-2 after Saturday night when a good UNLV team comes into town. The Runnin' Rebels are looking for another good win to accompany their upset of Louisville.

10. Florida @ Vanderbilt: Two teams who will likely be fighting for one spot in the tournament come March, especially if Tennessee looks fine, as they did Wednesday against Charlotte.

9. Wake Forest @ Miami: Another good bubble game. Miami has a lot of wins but not a lot of quality ones, and Wake has played well since their loss @ Purdue.

8. Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State: I get this feeling Okie State is getting by due to a weak schedule and is about to plummet down the Big 12 ladder. Could this be the beginning of that fall? Or will I look like an idiot for saying that? Come on, people, I'm practically selling these games for you. Who needs NFL playoffs when you can see if Matt looks like an idiot? Okay, I'll stop talking.

7. Kansas State @ Missouri: Maybe I've been reading a little too much Ken Pomeroy lately (Mizzou is 9 in Pomeroy's ratings) but I think this Tigers team is going to give a lot of Big 12 powers problems over the next few months, beginning with K-State this weekend.

6. Marquette @ Villanova: How much you want to bet Marquette will be the most picked lower seed to advance in the first round of the NCAA Tournament? Either them or Cornell.

5. Ohio State @ Minnesota: Made infintely more interesting after the return of Evan Turner. Is he 100%? Can Ohio State beat Minny on the road with an 80% Turner? 90%? We'll see.

4. Mississippi State @ Mississippi: Two teams nobody is talking about but are pretty darn good. One is Baylor. Another is the Bulldogs of Miss St. Yes, I know they've had some bad losses this year. But they're strong defensively and have the best shotblocker in the country (Jarvis Varnado). Can they shut down the Rebels' high-powered offense?

3. Duke @ Georgia Tech: The vibe I get from GT this year: a young team that is on the verge of great things but their inexperience has hurt them at key times this year. Favors and Lawal have been outstanding this year, but this is a Duke team that is prepared to handle size in the paint and has been playing some good basketball recently. My opinion: if Mfon Udofia doesn't have a big game, Duke shuts down the GT offense.

2. UConn @ Georgetown: The Huskies have been somewhat suspect this season offensively, and for a good defensive team like G-Town, that doesn't bode well for UConn. The Hoyas can also match UConn's size inside and speed outside. Then again, I also feel like G-Town has all the talent in the world sometimes and they don't play at the level they're capable of. Still, I like the Hoyas in a home win.

1. Purdue @ Wisconsin: You didn't really think this game wasn't going to be #1, right? Wisconsin legitimately scares me. The Badgers will not be rushed, they will not turn the ball over, and they will find good shots. They've got two very good offensive players in Jon Leuer and Trevon Hughes and several other guys who can score in given situations. They are also strong defensively. As a Purdue fan, I have to accept two truths: one, we will very likely lose (and this is one of those spots it could happen), and two, if we are a top 5 team, we win this game. Obviously we are good enough, and we should, win. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if Wisconsin takes us down. Should be entertaining though... if you like scores of 54-53. Ah, Big Ten Basketball... where two teams are needed to break the century mark.

Bubble Watch: First Edition

Welcome to the first bubble watch of the season! This is actually a combined bracketology/bubble watch section, with a heavy emphasis on the teams that are "on the bubble", or in danger of missing the tournament. Since there are still many games to be played, the bubble is quite soft, with lots of teams still having a viable shot at making it. What follows is a conference by conference preview of each team that still has a reasonable shot at being a tournament team, followed by their status (lock, likely in, on the bubble, likely not in, slim chance) along with an expected seed in the tournament. As mentioned earlier, many games are still to be played, so expect a lot of movement within the next few weeks. Let's get it started...

ACC

The ACC appears to be the same this year as it has been the previous few years: UNC and Duke, followed by a bunch of mid-level teams that are all fighting for a tournament spot. The conference is more compact this year than in previous years, though; UNC and Duke aren't quite as good. Clemson can move into that first tier with a win at Duke tonight, and Florida State has been solid, but it's a mixed bag for the rest of the conference. I probably should bump UNC out for their loss to College of Charleston, but whatever. They'll make it.

Locks: UNC (4), Duke (2)

Should be in:

Clemson (6): No real reason to keep Clemson out at this point, despite the poor effort at Duke on Sunday. They'll get another good shot vs. UNC next Wednesday. At home.

Florida State (5): Losses @ Florida and @ Ohio State with Evan Turner are nothing to be ashamed of, and good neutral court wins over Alabama and Marquette and @ Georgia Tech put them in good position to make the tournament. Some tricky mid-level conference games before they travel to Duke on the 27th.

Bubble teams:

Georgia Tech (7): Young team has been steady, if not spectacular. No marquee wins, but good wins over Siena, Charlotte, and USC and only two losses, both to tournament teams (Dayton, FSU). They'll have plenty of shots at good teams in ACC play. I think they're the 5th best team in the ACC and good enough to get in, but the real question is, are they that much better than Wake Forest, Miami, and Maryland that they'll get above .500 in ACC play? If they can get to 9-10 wins in ACC play, I think that'll be enough.

Miami (11): Excellent non-conference slate against a weak schedule capped by win over Minnesota. Loss to BC looking worse and worse though. Their 13-1 record doesn't tell us much. They only get one shot against Duke and @ UNC, which means less chances for marquee wins but a better chance at more wins. This team appears to be in at the moment, but will need to prove themselves, starting on Saturday when fellow bubbler Wake Forest comes into town.

Wake Forest (7): Survived in OT against Xavier and are looking better and better as the No shame at losing @ Purdue, and the William & Mary loss actually looks somewhat acceptable. Win @ Gonzaga put them on the map, and solid home win vs. Richmond gives Wake some momentum heading into ACC play. Like the two above them, they'll need to stay above .500 in the ACC to stay in the tournament mix.

Virginia Tech: Like Miami, they had an impressive non-conference record at 12-1, but the record doesn't have much to back it up. Good neutral court win vs. Seton Hall on Saturday is their best win so far. We'll find out more about this team next Saturday @ UNC, where at the very least, a good showing will help them gain some credibility.

Likely not in:

Maryland: I expected more out of this team. None of the 4 losses are particularly bad, but they were all four shots to get good wins heading into ACC play. As it stands, their best win is @ Indiana, which is marginally okay. Florida State comes into Terp country next Sunday, and a win is essential for a Maryland team that probably needs 10+ wins to get in.

North Carolina State: Heartbreaking loss to Florida puts a dent in the Wolfpack's tournament hopes. Like Virginia Tech and Miami though, the Wolfpack are probably closer to a bid than you might expect. Best win so far is @ Marquette, which is actually pretty good for a bubble team. Losses vs Northwestern, Wake Forest, and @ Arizona are not awful, although it's probably telling that they're 1-4 vs. potential bubble teams.

Big East

The big word for this conference so far is parity. Like the ACC, lack of an elite team means there's opportunities for the mid-level teams to get some good wins. Last year, a top heavy conference meant the top feasted on the middle and resulted in 7 bids out of what was initially projected to be a 9 or even 10 team league. While the conference may not be as strong at the top as it once was, it may get more teams in this year.

Locks: Syracuse (2), West Virginia (2), Villanova (2), Georgetown (3)

Should be in:

UConn (5): Loss @ Cincinnati somewhat countered by win at home vs. ND. They've looked somewhat sketchy at times this year but barring a tremendous collapse should be a lock in no time.

Bubble teams:

Pittsburgh (7): Huge win @ Syracuse puts an exclamation point on a resume that was somewhat lacking up until this point. Best win before was Wichita State, with a somewhat ugly neutral court loss to Indiana also thrown in there. Then followed that up with a road win vs. Cincinnati, letting us know they're for real. 3 of next 5 conference games are against fellow bubble teams, and the other two are @ UConn and Georgetown so a good start will be important. No rest in the Big East.

Cincinnati (9): Solid, if unspectacular, non-conference results. Wins vs. Vanderbilt and Maryland balanced by losses vs. Gonzaga, Xavier, and UAB. Big home win in their first conference game vs. UConn but let one slip away vs. Pitt. Offensively I question whether or not this team is good enough to do anything in the tournament, but they're good for now. A relatively soft slate over the next month should allow the Bearcats to gain some momentum.

Marquette (9): One of the season's early surprise teams, the luster has worn off a bit. Wins over Xavier and Michigan don't look nearly as good now as they used to, and near misses vs. Florida State, West Virginia, and Villanova could really come back to hurt them. The Golden Eagles must rebound this week when they play Georgetown on Wednesday and then go to Villanova on Saturday for the rematch. Neither are must-wins, but you really don't want to start 0-4 in Big East play.

St. John's: Bad loss to Providence now limits the Red Storm's margin of error. Still have three very winnable games before their game @ UConn on the 20th. Of the four, a loss to Cincinnati at home would probably be the only semi-acceptable one for a tournament team. Also have wins at Temple and vs. Siena.

Likely not in:

Seton Hall: Like Marquette, the Pirates also missed out on a couple of shots at good wins against West Virginia and Syracuse, and also fell in OT to Virginia Tech. They don't have the non-conference wins to back them up (best on is Cornell) so they need to start racking up conference wins, beginning on Wednesday @ UConn.

Louisville: The Cardinals weren't playing a difficult non-conference slate as it was, but losses to the only tough teams on their schedule leaves them with nothing resembling a decent win. Must take care of business @ Providence on Wednesday and at home vs. St. John's on Saturday.

Notre Dame: Nothing very exciting on the Irish's resume thus far, and an ugly loss at home vs. Loyola Marymount. They played UConn close on Saturday but the defense and support for Harangody offensively just isn't there. West Virginia comes to South Bend on Saturday and it would do them well to come out of that one with a win.

South Florida: Hanging on by a thread, the Bulls looked bad at Louisville last Wednesday, and that's definitely not a good sign. They need to start piling together some wins.

Big Ten

The Big Ten has steadily been the third best conference in the nation this year, behind the Big East and Big 12, and they look to stay that way for the time being. Purdue has been outstanding, and there have been some nice surprises and also some disappointments. In the end, I expect 5 or 6 teams to be dancing come March, which is slightly under preseason expectations.

Locks: Purdue (1)

Should be in:

Michigan State (4): Take away the preseason expectations and the ranking, and look at the resume. Is this a resume that screams lock to you? Not to me, at this point in the season. Doesn't mean they won't be a lock, just there's the possibility for collapse. Win at Northwestern keeps them on the right track.

Wisconsin (3): The biggest surprise of the year, the Badgers have the big win vs. Duke to fall back on and are probably a loss @ Green Bay away from being a lock. Still, a win @ Michigan State on Wednesday will move them to lock status.

Minnesota (7): I find it very hard to make an argument to keep Tubby's squad out of the tournament at this point. All losses are understandable (although the Portland loss is looking somewhat iffy) and a decent neutral court win over Butler is in the mix. Big opportunity to prove something @ Purdue on Tuesday, followed by a should win at home on Saturday vs. a Turner-less Ohio State.

Bubble Teams:

Ohio State (10): With Turner? This is a top 15 team, no question. Without Turner? I'm not sure this is a tournament team. They looked really, really bad at Wisconsin on New Year's Eve and the offense looks absolutely lost. Lost @ Michigan on Saturday and now really need a home win vs. Indiana before they go to Minnesota on Saturday. Turner's an ace in the hole, but they don't want to rely on him coming back 100% just to make the dance.

Illinois (12): I really like this team, but the losses are beginning to pile up. A massive comeback at the Unite Center vs. Gonzaga was stopped short, and the 9-5 Illini are not in a position to lose many more home games against decent opponents. Three bad losses remove any sparkle the Clemson, Vanderbilt, and Northwestern wins put on the Illini resume. Three must wins against the bottom of the Big Ten leading up to next Saturday's meeting with Michigan State in East Lansing.

Northwestern: Another one of the early season surprises, they let one slip away in Champaign before getting dominated in the 2nd half vs. Michigan State. They have ok wins vs. Iowa State and Notre Dame, but bigger wins will be necessary to impress the committee. The best chance for those are next week when Wisconsin and Purdue come into town on back-to-back games.

Likely not in:

Nobody. Michigan has been so terrible they don't even make this list. Indiana and Penn State have been better but neither has done enough to merit much consideration.

Big 12

The most top-heavy conference, with three teams in the top 10 and the top two teams in the country. I have Kansas St. as a lock to join Kansas and Texas. Other than those three, there's a fairly steep drop-off. The next best team, Texas A & M, is by no means a lock to get in, although they're probably safe right now. Beyond that, there are no guarantees.

Locks: Kansas (1), Texas (1), Kansas St. (3)

Should be in:

Texas A & M (6): The Aggies certainly wouldn't be left out if the season ended today, but they haven't separated themselves enough from the middle of the Big 12 to make me feel completely safe about their tournament chances. Two big road games at Kansas St. and Texas next week. Get one of two and they're probably locked up (for now).

Bubble teams:

Texas Tech (10): Had they lost at home to McNeese St. on New Year's, I'd feel a lot worse about their chances. As it stands, the Red Raiders have a wins over Washington and UTEP to brag about, and a couple of road losses to Wichita St. and New Mexico. Not bad losses, but doesn't exactly make you feel safe about making them a tournament team. More wins are necessary, but they're at least on the right side at the moment.

Baylor (9): The Bears are flying under the radar a bit, but they've rode one of the biggest starting lineups in the country to solid road wins over South Carolina and Arkansas and a neutral court win over Xavier. Kinda remind me of Florida State with their slow pace and size. Anyway, they're in good shape at the moment as well. Must take care of business at home vs. Oklahoma this Saturday and Oklahoma St. next Saturday.

Oklahoma State (10): The Cowboys haven't exactly disappointed as much as they haven't impressed. Still looking for that statement win, they beat Stanford by 1 and lost to Tulsa and Rhode Island, both away from Stillwater. Texas Tech comes into town on Saturday in what will be an important game bubble-wise.

Missouri (12): Probably closer to the bubble than you might expect. A good win against Illinois is looking worse, though, and they have a not-so-pretty loss to Oral Roberts on there as well. They have Kansas State at home on Saturday, and that would be a nice win to pick up. Otherwise, a string of bubble games before they pay a visit to Kansas on the 23rd.

Likely not in:

Oklahoma: Too many bad losses to consider them at this point. Next 5 games are against teams either in the tournament or on the bubble, but they'd probably have to go 4-1 or win all 5 to make some real noise.

Iowa State: Whiffed on all three chances to get a solid non-conference win (Northwestern, Northern Iowa, Cal) and unless they can take out Duke in Chicago, they must rely on winning games in a tough conference. Not that upsetting Duke isn't possible, but you get the idea.

Nebraska: They actually have a couple of decent wins over USC and Tulsa, but outside of that the cupboard is bare. Win at A & M on Saturday and we'll talk.

Pac-10

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the weakest power conference in major college basketball history. And that's probably not a joke. There's a really good chance only two Pac-10 teams are getting in (especially after the news that USC is banning themselves from postseason play takes away a potential bubble team) and there's an outside possibility only one gets in. That's how bad it is. No east coast bias this year... the west coast just sucks.

Locks: None

Should be in:

Washington (6): The strongest of the conference just lost at home to Oregon and are by no means locks to make the dance. They were lucky to hold on to their top 25 spot. The next two aren't cakewalks either (@ Arizona State, @ Arizona). I get the feeling this team may not hit the potential most people expected they had in the preseason.

Bubble teams:

Cal (8): There's actually a good argument to be made that the Bears are still the best team in this conference, but the resume doesn't support it at the moment. All four losses are perfectly understandable, but zero wins against likely tournament teams mean Cal has work to do. Putting away the other California schools this week would be a start.

Oregon: Pretty much left for dead since November, the Ducks have come storming back with two good wins at the Washington schools to put themselves on the map. And in this conference, two wins like that move you up to third best in the conference. Rivalry game at home vs. Oregon State looms on Sunday.

Washington State: Two of their three losses are road losses to Gonzaga and Kansas State, and a third was in double OT to Oregon, but absolutely no wins to speak of. With a weak conference slate coming up, the Cougars will need to make their case by sheer number of wins. They travel to Arizona and Arizona State this week and could use a couple of good road wins on their resume.

Arizona State: I thought Arizona State looked pretty good at MSG against Duke, and their non-conference slate was fairly good considering what they have to work with. But it's pretty clear they're undermanned, and two losses at UCLA and USC have them off to a bad start. No more margin of error for the Sun Devils, meaning they may need a sweep of the Washington schools this week to get in the bubble mix.

Likely not in:

Nobody else will sniff the postseason.

Not in: USC. This special section is to remind people that even though USC has played well recently, they have banned themselves due to the O. J. Mayo stuff. They won't play in the Pac-10 tournament either.

SEC

Kentucky, and a lot of mediocrity. The ball is up in the air with Tennessee after the suspensions, leaving Mississippi as the lone challenger to UK's throne. Mississippi State may have something to say about that as well. Lots of parity, especially out east, where three teams behind Kentucky will fight for what may be only one spot.

Locks: Kentucky (1), Mississippi (3)

Should be in:

Mississippi State (6): They have recovered nicely from an ugly early season loss to Rider and have several wins over good mid-major schools. They look to challenge Mississippi for the SEC West title and get their first shot at the Rebels on Saturday.

Bubble teams:

Tennessee (8): Would be in the "should be in" category except now Tyler Smith is gone and I'm not sure how the team will react to that. Important win at Memphis, however sloppy, is probably their selling point at the moment. Big opportunity when Kansas rolls into town on Sunday.

Florida (9): One of the early season giant-killers, the Michigan State win isn't quite the elite win they were hoping for at this point and they have a very bad home South Alabama loss to deal with. Still, their wins are as good as any other bubble team. How big will that 75-footer at NC State be at the end of the year? Big bubble game at Vanderbilt on Saturday before the UK game next Tuesday.

Vanderbilt: Speaking of the Commodores, they played in Maui and looked so-so. As a result, their resume looks pretty so-so as well. Wins over Missouri and St. Mary's, but losses to Illinois and Western Kentucky which are looking worse as the season goes on. Two home games this week, and Vandy will need to take care of business.

Likely not in:

South Carolina: Very quickly slipping out of contention. They get three easy ones before a bunch of must wins vs. Vanderbilt, Mississippi, and Florida.

Alabama: Resume just doesn't have enough to back it up. Baylor win is looking better, but they really need a home win vs. Vanderbilt next Monday.

Atlantic 10:

Probably one of the best mid-major conferences in recent memory, and that include the Missouri Valley conference that sent 4 to the dance a few years back. Four legitimate tournament teams, plus a very solid middle of the pack. Should be entertaining east coast basketball over the next two months.

Locks: None. Temple could've locked it up on Saturday but laid an egg at home vs. Kansas.

Should be in:

Temple (5): It's a shame they couldn't at least show up vs. Kansas, because it really would've capped off what's been an excellent non-conference season. I'm not convined they have the firepower to win the conference, but they'll certainly be up there. They go to Rhode Island on Sunday and would be wise to not duplicate the Kansas performance there.

Dayton (8): A couple of good wins vs. Georgia Tech and Old Dominion and three understandable losses. For my money they're still the best in this conference. Next Saturday they go to Xavier, never a fun place to play. A win would move them very close to lock status.

Bubble teams:

Richmond: While I wouldn't necessarily pick a Spider as my mascot, it's been good enough for Richmond. Three good wins over Missouri, Old Dominion, and Florida equal out four not-so-good losses. Margin for error is small, but they can and should be 8-0 by the time they welcome Temple on February 6th.

Rhode Island (11): Don't know much about the Rhodies? Well, they beat Oklahoma State last Saturday and are 11-1, even though their schedule has been pretty weak. They'll put themselves on the map if they take down Temple at home on Sunday.

Xavier: Who would've thought this team would be fifth-best in the conference after three straight titles? In any case, the Musketeers have had their opportunities but really only have a double OT home win over Cincinnati to show for it. That's not going to be enough. Dayton at home in two Saturdays will do, though.

Mountain West

Another great year for the MWC, who looks to be in line to get three teams in and quite possibly a fourth. Once again, the parity at the top may benefit the conference in terms of sheer number of teams dancing in March.

Locks: None.

Should be in:

BYU (5): Can't really envision a scenario where the Cougars don't make it, but we'll hold out for one more week. Two important games vs. UNLV on Wednesday and @ New Mexico on Saturday.

New Mexico (4): Same as above.

Bubble Teams:

UNLV (11): The Runnin' Rebels took out Louisville for the 2nd straight year and have a couple of nice-looking wins here and there, but not enough to wow anybody. Losses to Kansas State and USC could be worse. Two big, big road games vs. the big boys in the conference (BYU and New Mexico) could be instrumental in getting UNLV into the dance.

San Diego State: One of my favorites from last year, the Aztecs are doing it again... sort of. They have next to nothing in the non-conference, but hey, that's where they were at last year when a big early season conference win over Utah put them in contention for a tournament spot. Can they do the same at home against New Mexico on Tuesday? We'll find out.

Others:

The mid-major landscape has been a bit of a mixed bag at this point. They have benefitted greatly from the fallout of a power conference (the Pac-10) but all of those spots will likely be taken by the A-10 and MWC, meaning at-large bids will be at a premium again for smaller conferences. Several likely candidates have emerged but none are really pulling away from the pack.

Locks: None.

Should be in:

Gonzaga (4): The Zags have been up and down this non-conference, but they should clean out the WCC and get in the tournament again. Or will they? Well, we'll know soon. Their two toughest conference games, @ Portland and @ St. Mary's, take place in the next two weeks.

Butler (8): Never really got going this non-conference season and somehow they're still ranked in the coaches' poll. Go figure. Anyway, they've started 3-0 in conference and have wins over a Turner-less Ohio State team and Xavier for backup. Wright State, the next best team in the Horizon, hosts the Bulldogs on Friday.

Northern Iowa (10): Record makes them look better than they actually are, but hard to argue with 12-1. Plus the Missouri Valley champ will likely get a bid. A couple of tough road games vs. Southern Illinois and Illinois St. await.

Bubble Teams:

St. Mary's (11): Yes, the Gaels are actually playing better now that Patty Mills is gone. Anyway, no wins over tournament teams, but decent wins over San Diego State and Oregon. As mentioned earlier, important game next Thursday when big boy Gonzaga comes to visit.

VCU: Another entertaining season for the Colonial. The Rams are back in the tournament hunt, but they have some new competition in the form of Old Dominion and William & Mary, who both have solid wins to speak of. Still, if the conference is going to get an at-large team in, it will likely have to be VCU, with wins over fellow bubblers Rhode Island and Richmond. Already lost at William & Mary, but they'll try to get revenge on the 20th.

Cornell: Wait, what?? We're talking about putting an Ivy League team in with an at-large bid? And Harvard's good too? Hold on a second, my head's spinning... anyway, the Ivy League favorites actually have an argument that they don't need the Ivy auto bid to get in. Well, sort of. Can they beat Kansas on Wednesday? Wouldn't that be something...

Missouri State: The other MVC challenger, they fell at Northern Iowa on Sunday but are still 2-1 in conference and have a non-conference win over Tulsa. Probably not good enough for anything, but at least they have that.

UAB (12): The Blazers have been the best team in the C-USA thus far, with wins over Cincinnati and Butler. Losses to Kent St. and Virginia do hurt. Hard to see the C-USA champ not getting a bid, but no guarantees.

Memphis: Forgetting the name, the Tigers really have done little to suggest they're a tournament team. They go to Syracuse on Wednesday in desperate need of a good win.

In Contention:

None of these teams will be in at the moment, but they're some names to remember: Tulsa, UTEP, Old Dominion, William & Mary, Tulsa, UTEP, Wichita State, Portland, Siena, Utah State, Louisiana Tech.

Weekend of Jan. 2nd - Preview

Hope everyone had a great beginning to 2010! I know I did. When I thought of how the Purdue-West Virginia game could go down, I really never considered the scenario that actually happened. The first 10 minutes were fairly even, and there was a short stretch at the end of the 1st half where West Virginia pulled closer, but the rest of the game was dominated by Purdue. The Mountaineers could do nothing offensively for most of the game, as Purdue's pressure man-to-man controlled the tempo. On the other side, JaJuan Johnson was outstanding, with 25 points and 10 rebounds, and WVU had no answer for him. Once the outside shots started falling for Purdue, they put away the #6 team in the nation in convincing fashion.

So where does that put my Boilers? Well, for one, I think we can beat anyone in the country, especially in Mackey. Their weaknesses are lack of depth at the 5 and lack of elite quickness on the perimeter, both things a tired WVU team was unable to exploit. Could Kansas, Texas, and Kentucky exploit those? Certainly. What about Syracuse? Probably. But they also have not faced the kind of defense we bring to the table. I'm convinced we're one of the three best defensive teams in the country. Either way, we've got the fast track to a #1 seed, which is the ultimate goal. Things are looking very good for my Boilers.

The other major game was New Mexico holding off a furious late charge by Dayton to pick up another solid non-conference win. The battle between the Lobos and a very underrated BYU team should highlight Mountain West conference play. Here's what's up for this weekend:

Saturday, Jan. 2nd:

Game of the Night:

Kansas @ Temple: Those who have been complaining Kansas has been playing an easy schedule get their wish. They pay a visit to the Owls, who have already taken down Villanova and have been outstanding defensively this year. After the Nova upset, this game moved from trap game to marquee matchup. Kansas has played decent opponents, such as Memphis, Michigan, and Cal, but they haven't played anyone quite as good as this. However, their offense has improved every game since the disastrous performance vs. Memphis. Plus, this is the #1 team in the country, and they need to win games like this. I think Kansas will surprise some people with how well they'll play.

Pick: Kansas 72, Temple 60

Others:

Louisville @ Kentucky: Other major upset possibility of the day, although I don't see UK going down at home to a team that lost to Western Carolina.

Pitt @ Syracuse: Probably not an upset in the Carrier Dome, but the Orange cannot take the Panthers lightly.

Villanova @ Marquette: Marquette missed a big opportunity when they let it slip away at WVU. Here's another chance to get that marquee win.

Notre Dame @ UConn: The Huskies looking to recover after falling @ Cincinnati.

Michigan St. @ Northwestern: I always hate playing Northwestern. I imagine after last year, Michigan St would probably agree.

Oregon @ Washington: The Ducks got a good win at Washington state in OT, and now they get the other Washington school.

Gonzaga @ Illinois: Illinois has been a mixed bag this year. If they can win this one, they'll jump back into my "underrated" pool of teams (by the way, this still includes Kansas State. Why is nobody talking about the Wildcats?)

Baylor @ South Carolina: The Bears just overwhelmed Arkansas with their height inside. But they didn't have to deal with a guy like Devan Downey.

Oklahoma St. @ Rhode Island: The A-10 is as good as it's ever been. Dayton, Temple, Xavier, and a bunch of good mid-level teams... Like the Rams. Oklahoma St. needs to be wary.

Seton Hall @ Virginia Tech: The Governor's Cup. Whatever that means.

Arizona St. @ USC: The nightcap should be competitive, if slightly slow and boring.