Yay for being productive over break. Here's the first bubble watch of the year! Keep in mind a LOT can change in conference play and these are by no means set in stone. I tried to wait until putting a team in lock status as long as possible, so if the team is in the "should be in" category, they'd be in if the season ended today.
ACC
Lots of possibilities still abound for this conference. There’s 4 locks, but definitely room for 6 to get in. Could 7 make it? A few teams have some good-looking OOC wins and might be able to afford a bad record in conference play, but probably not.
In: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
UNC, Duke, and Wake are locks. Clemson is a lock due to wins @ Miami (FL) and @ Illinois and lack of a loss.
Should be in: Miami (FL)
All three losses are to good teams (UConn, Ohio State without McClinton for much of the game, Clemson) but their best wins are @ Kentucky and @ St. John’s so there’s not much backing in terms of OOC wins. I’ll reserve lock status until they get some good wins in conference, but they should get those eventually.
Bubble teams: BC, Maryland, Florida St., NC St., VT
Boston College: Win @ UNC most likely puts them in the tournament at this point. As we’ve seen in the past, though, one win does not make a team, and a loss to Harvard is not the way to follow up a win over the #3 team in the nation. Also have that semi-ugly loss @ St. Louis. If they achieve a top 5 or top 6 finish in conference that might be enough, but the loss to Harvard has put the Eagles in some dangerous territory.
Maryland: Swept the Michigan schools. Only two losses are to Georgetown, which is looking much better, and Gonzaga, which is looking much worse. I think this will be much closer than it looks at the end of the season, just because of the competitiveness of the conference at the top, but there’s no reason to keep them out right now.
Florida St.: Lots of sort-of-good wins (Cincinnati, Cal, Florida, Texas Tech) but no defining win. Loss @ Northwestern could really hurt come March. There’s plenty of opportunities in the ACC to pick up defining wins but conference wins will be difficult to come by.
North Carolina St.: Lost out on a very good opportunity when they fell to Florida last Saturday. All three losses are to likely tournament teams (@ Davidson, Marquette, Florida) but those were the only quality teams on their OOC schedule so the Wolfpack are left without a decent win to speak of. @ Clemson on Saturday would be a good start.
Virginia Tech: @ St. John’s is the best win to speak of so far, but they missed out on every other OOC opportunity and must pick up a marquee win in conference to get in the dance.
Big Ten
Going into conference play, there were 7 teams you could make a legit argument for making the tournament. Someone has to be left out. Could it be the pre-season conference champs? Also, the Ohio St. case is shaping up to be very intriguing.
In: Wisconsin, Michigan St.
Nobody’s safe in this conference but I’ll say the two leaders are locks at this point. I think one of these two will take the conference.
Should be in: Purdue
Maybe I’m a little biased, but I find it VERY hard to believe this team won’t find a way to get back on track. But after watching them on Tuesday… who knows.
Bubble teams: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State
Illinois: Won @ Purdue for their best win so far. Other wins include Georgia and Kansas State (neutral). In other words, not a ton of great wins. The bright side is there’s little to criticize on their resume so far. As for the rest of these bubble teams, performance in conference will separate this school from the pack.
Michigan: Avoided a huge potential pitfall by barely escaping IU in OT. They have the best wins of any of these teams, including Duke and UCLA (neutral), but I’m still not sold on this team due to inconsistency (Savannah State took them to OT as well). They’re a good team but I have no reason to believe this team will consistently be better than the middle of the pack of the Big 10. Which isn’t a bad thing.
Minnesota: Same as Michigan, but without the great OOC wins (although beating Louisville helps a ton). Win over Ohio St. also big in terms of respect. Could they survive finishing below .500 in conference with the weak OOC schedule? Probably not.
Ohio State: This is the most interesting case. They’re currently on the bottom of this list but remember they’re losing all these games without Lighty. They’ll have him back for the tournament and the list of wins with him (@ Miami, Notre Dame) is pretty impressive. If they can pick up some good conference wins when he comes back, they might convince the committee enough to squeak in with a subpar conference record.
Big 12
5 teams are solidly in at this point. The Aggies are pushing to make it 6. After that, did anyone perform well enough out of conference to get in? I think any more than 6 will probably be a stretch.
In: OU, Texas, Kansas
OU and Texas are still locks. Kansas moves to lock status via their win over Tennessee, as they were only lacking a marquee win to put them in.
Should be in: Baylor, Missouri
Baylor is VERY close to being a lock but loss to South Carolina bumps them down just a bit. Missouri looked awful vs. Illinois but good wins over USC and Cal mean they should get in.
Bubble teams: Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., Nebraska, Kansas St.
Texas A&M: Good win over Arizona cancelled out by loss to Tulsa. Wins over Alabama and Miss St. help but won’t clinch anything for the Aggies. This team could go either way depending on how conference play turns out.
Oklahoma St.: This looks like an NIT team to me. Losses are understandable (although @ Washington is a stretch) but their best win is over Rhode Island and there’s plenty of teams better than them in this conference.
Nebraska: The Cornhuskers were looking good… until that loss to Maryland-Baltimore County. Not-so-pretty loss to Oregon State hurts too. This team is in need of some good conference wins.
Kansas St.: Good record masked by the fact that those three losses were to likely NIT teams (Kentucky, Oregon, Iowa). The Wildcats will likely be joining them there.
Big East
The biggest and best conference in the land will get at least 8 teams in. There isn’t a great option for a 9th team but I’d find it hard to imagine someone won’t emerge in conference. Could they get 10? It’s unlikely, but if a team like Providence or St. John’s reels off a few upsets it could happen.
In: Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, ND
Top 4 teams are locks. ND win over Georgetown moves the Irish into lock status.
Should be in: Marquette, West Virginia, Louisville
Marquette: 2-0 in the Big East, and win over Wisconsin should be good enough for now. Losses are respectable (Dayton, Tennessee, both on neutral courts). This team will get enough good wins in conference to move into lock status in the near future.
West Virginia: Loss vs. Kentucky doesn’t look good, but the win @ Ohio State does. They were extremely competitive against UConn yesterday and that tells me they’ll grab an upset or two of the best teams in this conference, and that will be enough to get in.
Louisville: The Cardinals got a huge win over rival Kentucky to stop the skid. It might not be pretty at times, but they’ll do enough to grab a tournament bid.
Bubble teams: Providence, Villanova, St. John’s, Cincinnati
Providence: The OOC season wasn’t nice to the Friars, with a loss to Northeastern to begin the season and no marquee wins to speak of after missing on Baylor and St. Mary’s. Win over Rhode Island could be important for comparison purposes. The Big East season has started well and the Friars have beaten fellow bubble members St. John’s and Cincinnati, but it might not make up for the poor OOC schedule.
Villanova: Looking at the record and name, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t be a lock to get in. But look at the wins: Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s, Temple. They’d be in good shape if they played in the A-10. Right now Nova’s lacking that marquee win, and after getting taken to OT by Seton Hall, there’s nothing to suggest this team will turn it on and make a serious conference run. Just like the previous few years, Villanova could be on the bubble until the conference tournament.
St. John’s: Big win over ND puts the Red Storm on the radar. None of their losses are bad, but they lacked a good win until the ND game. Could they make a push to be the 10th team in from the Big East? Their weak OOC schedule could be their downfall if they don’t finish in the top half of the conference.
Cincinnati: Loss to Providence put the Bearcats in dangerous territory. All their losses are reasonable, and I like this team overall, but it’s likely NIT for them. The win @ UNLV is a good win, but that’s about it, and there’s too many teams ahead of them in the Big East pecking order right now.
SEC
The weakest power conference in the nation just got stronger with a couple of huge Razorback upsets. Suddenly, this isn’t solely Tennessee’s conference anymore. Still, the conference is weak in the middle and bottom, so there are conference wins to be had for teams like Florida and LSU that could use some good wins. I would imagine 4 teams will find their way in from the SEC.
In: Tennessee, Arkansas
Tennessee is a lock. Arkansas moves to lock status after beating two legit top 10 teams in two weeks.
Should be in: Florida
Florida: They’ve beaten all the teams they were supposed to (except @ Florida St., but I’ll give them a pass against a good rival on the road), but no marquee wins to speak of. They’ll get in based on sheer number of wins, as they’re probably the third best team in the conference right now.
Bubble teams: LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky
LSU: Extremely weak OOC schedule, plus they lost to the only two legit teams they’ve played so far (Texas A&M, @ Utah). Tough team to judge due to the lack of tests they’ve had. I’d like to think this team will end up in a similar position to Florida, but they stay on the bubble due to their best win being Washington State.
South Carolina: Win over Baylor puts the Gamecocks on the map. Gaudy record and weak OOC schedule masks bad loss to Charleston. They still need to perform well in conference but the bid is there for the taking.
Kentucky: They were under the 8-ball early, losing to VMI, and haven’t really done anything to even get back on the bubble. That, combined with recent developments in the SEC suggesting this conference will be more difficult than initially anticipated, suggests this will be an NIT team.
Pac-10
The Pac-10 and Big 10 are difficult to judge because the teams are so close from top to bottom. Anywhere from 3 to 5 or 6 teams could get in. Judging by the other conference outlooks, I’d be surprised if less than 5 make it in, but Stanford is making a strong case for 6.
In: UCLA, Arizona St.
Top two competitors for the Pac-10 title remain locks.
Should be in: Cal
Cal: Oh so close to a lock after sweeping the Arizona schools. I’d like to see just one more good win to put them in lock status.
Bubble teams: USC, Arizona, Stanford, Washington
USC: Expectations can only carry you so far. At this point, the Trojans need to start showing it on the court, and they haven’t done it at this point. Their best wins are Georgia Tech and @ Oregon, which means they have some work to do. Handing Oregon St. their first conference win in over a year doesn’t help their case.
Arizona: Same thing for the Wildcats, who are now 0-2 in the Pac-10 after the losses to Cal and Stanford. At least they have some very good OOC wins (Gonzaga, Kansas) but their inconsistencies could end up dooming them in the end.
Stanford: After badly stumbling in their first real test of the season (Arizona St.) they picked up an important win over Arizona. If they get to .500 in conference, will that be enough? There is absolutely nothing to back them up in the non-conference due to a very weak OOC schedule, so I’m going with no.
Washington: Poor early season start may doom this team. Very important bubble game with Stanford looms on Thursday.
Other conferences:
The mid-major scene looks like normal… a few standouts, and a lot of question marks. The difficulty with many of these teams is judging them when they haven’t played anyone (like Illinois St. and Utah State), so we have to go on conference strength and performance. Remember most of these teams will win their conference’s auto bid, so their at-large status becomes moot.
In: Xavier, Butler, BYU, Gonzaga
Xavier and Butler are locks. Loss to Wake Forest doesn’t keep BYU out of lock status. Win @ Tennessee moves Gonzaga back into lock status and they should stay there for the remainder of the year unless something catastrophic happens.
Should be in: St. Mary’s, Memphis, UNLV, Dayton, Davidson
Bad loss to UTEP can be overlooked due to sheer number of wins and number of good wins (Providence, @ Oregon, @ Kansas St., @ SIU). Memphis doesn’t have any real great wins (best is home v. Cincinnati) but all the losses are reasonable and they should win the C-USA which will be enough to get in. UNLV win @ Louisville gets them off the bubble. Dayton has been holding solid ever since the loss @ Creighton and 2nd in the A-10 will be good enough to get in. The four Davidson losses are all understandable and wins over WVU and NC State should be fine.
Bubble teams: Rhode Island, Illinois State, Creighton, Utah, San Diego State, Utah State
Rhode Island: It’s hard to believe only two teams could make it from the Atlantic 10, but everyone other than Rhode Island is around .500 at the moment. Losses to Duke and Villanova are nothing to be upset about, and losses @ Providence and and Oklahoma St. aren’t awful, but there is a lack of good wins. If the Rams finish 3rd in the conference and get a split against either Dayton or Xavier (or both), that should be enough for the committee to reluctantly let them in.
Illinois State: The perfect season is over, and the schedule’s been very weak, but winning the MVC regular season title would hold some clout. A sweep of Creighton would look very nice too.
Creighton: Their at-large status was already iffy heading into conference play, but a weak start in conference hasn’t helped their cause one bit. They’ll likely need the MVC auto-bid.
Utah: The Utes have an extremely awful set of losses, including a loss to a Division 2 team. However, recent wins over Gonzaga and LSU have put them in at-large consideration. At this point, the resume is not good enough. But there are good wins to come by in the Mountain West, and this team is very capable of making a run and taking the regular season title.
San Diego State: No good wins but losses are all reasonable, and there are opportunities for good wins in the Mountain West. A couple of good wins and this team could get some at-large consideration.
Utah State: The WAC favorites fell to BYU on a neutral court but did beat fellow bubble member Utah. The OOC schedule probably isn’t strong enough for an at-large bid though.
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