State of the Bubble - End of Regular Season edition

Okay, so conference play is almost over, and the conference tourneys are beginning. Speaking of which, we get to punch some tournament bids tonight! VMI takes on Radford at 4 PM for the Big South championship, E. Tennessee St. vs. Jacksonville at 6 PM for the A-Sun championship, Moorehead St. goes up against Austin Peay for the Ohio Valley championship at 8 PM. As for the big boys, here's my bubble outlook. First, the teams that are a lock to make the tourney:

Locks:
Xavier
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake
Florida St
Kansas
OU
Missouri
Texas
UConn
Louisville
Pitt
Marquette
Villanova
Syracuse
Michigan St.
Illinois
Purdue
Ohio St
Washington
Arizona St.
Cal
UCLA
Utah
BYU

These teams are in for all intents and purposes, and barring a major collapse, this should not shrink between now and tournament time. Bubble teams should root for these teams to win their conference tourney because if the tournament winners come from outside this pool, these teams will all get at-large bids and will take up one of the spots. 26 - 7 conference champs (assuming they all come from this group) = 19 at-large bids LOCKED UP

In addition, if these teams do not win their conference tourney they will get in as an at large:
LSU
Gonzaga
Memphis
Butler

Bubble teams need to root for these guys to win their conference because if not, they will take an at-large spot. That means there could be as many as 15 and as few as 11 at large spots available. Here's the teams I think have a somewhat legit shot at getting a bid:
Dayton
Rhode Island
BC
VT
Maryland
Miami
Oklahoma St.
Texas A&M
West Virginia
Providence
Penn St.
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
New Mexico
San Diego St.
UNLV
Arizona
South Carolina
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
St. Mary's

That's 23 teams. Also, if these teams do NOT win their conference tourney they'll be in the at-large pool on the bubble:
Siena
Davidson
Utah St.
Creighton

Bubble teams need to also root for these schools to win their conference tourney so there will be less teams on the bubble.

Here's a list of every bubble game being played today and my assessment of how bad the team needs the win:

Duquesne @ Dayton, 8 PM
Dayton, at this point, obviously can't afford another loss to a team outside the RPI top 100. In my book, Dayton's probably good at this point, but a win here and a few wins in the A-10 tourney would lock them up for sure.

UMass @ Rhode Island, 2 PM
URI needs all the wins they can get, including this one today. Some good play in the A-10 has put the Rams back on the bubble, but they really need to at least beat either Dayton or Xavier, which probably means get to the A-10 final. If they lost in the A-10 final to Xavier in a close game, would the committee put them in? It would require a few epic collapses by some bubble teams but after the losses on Upset Wednesday (that's my nickname for the Wednesdays of this season), I wouldn't completely dismiss it.

Georgia Tech @ BC, 12 PM
The Eagles can't afford another ugly loss to go along with Harvard and @ NC State. This win would at least put them above .500 in the ACC, which is good, and they have two major cards to play in wins @ UNC and Duke. As long as BC takes care of business here and in the tourney, they should be in.

Maryland @ Virginia, 3:30 PM
Another team struggling to stay above .500 in the ACC. If they can take care of business here, they'll get to .500, but how much will that help them? They're 4-9 vs. RPI top 50, which isn't bad, and they do have to North Carolina win and the Michigan State win way back in November. They also have an ugly loss to Morgan State as well. This is one of those teams I could see falling in the ACC quarters and getting left out, and then I have to hear Dickie V complain about why Maryland didn't make it in for the next 5 years (like he does about Virginia Tech last year).

NC State @ Miami, 12 PM
The U is out, for all intents and purposes, unless they have a big time ACC tourney run in them. Then again, this team did come within 7 points of sweeping Wake Forest, Duke, and UNC, so they could very well get it done. My opinion... I would NOT want to see McClinton on the floor against my Boilers anytime soon. Miami didn't take care of business in season, though, and maybe if even one of the OT losses (Virginia Tech, @ NC State, @ Duke) had gone their way, they'd be in a much better position right now.

Oklahoma St. @ OU, 3:30 PM
One of the biggest games of the day and a chance for the Cowboys to pretty much punch their ticket to the tournament. There's no guarantees, but with great computer rankings and some decent wins to back up their resume (6 straight Big 12 wins including one over Texas), a win over a top 5 team would probably be good enough to push them over the top. Take this one, win a game in the Big 12 quarters, and they're as good as in.

Missouri @ Texas A&M, 2 PM
Another one of those Big 12 teams that has a chance to put a stamp on their resume today. The Aggies also beat Texas and are also making a run on the back half of their conference slate, by far the easier half. They also don't have any bad losses. The thing that holds me back with them is, they didn't beat any of the teams they played on the earlier half. In fact, if this team played ND's schedule right now, wouldn't they be in the same position as the Irish? Would they not have lost every important Big East game they played and be off the bubble at the moment? But as it stands, a win here would put them at .500 in Big 12 play and another good win in the tourney could be enough.

Louisville @ West Virginia, 9 PM
A lack of a marquee win is holding me back from locking up the Mountaineers. This would count as a marquee win, but even if they don't get it West Virginia is still in good shape. A top 8 finish in the Big East means one bye and an easy 2nd round matchup, meaning they should be able to get to the quarters easily which should be plenty to get them in.

Providence
The Friars are done with their regular season. Providence is 10-8 in Big East play, but a lot of that was against the bottom half of the conference. Pitt and Syracuse are really the only two big wins they have to stand on. To make matters worse, they finished 8th in the Big East, so their quarterfinal matchup is probably going to be against UConn or Louisville, which will be difficult. This team reminds me of Villanova last year who was in a similar position. Nova got in, so that's good news for Providence. The tourney will probably make or break this team.

Penn St. @ Iowa, 2 PM
Contrary to other bubble teams, I feel like Penn State can afford a loss here... sort of. Beating the top 3 teams in your conference will do that. I know Iowa is awful, but to be honest, they've probably done enough to get in so far, and teams are bound to lose to bad teams in the conference tourneys. Okay, they probably can't afford it... but win here and they're probably locked up.

Michigan @ Minnesota, 12 PM
Many are saying this is an elimination game. I refuse to believe so, since both have very good out of conference wins and teams are bound to get upset today and in the conference, but let's look at it like that for fun anyway. Michigan arguably needs this win more, because they are currently below .500 in conference play, but Minnesota also doesn't have as many quality wins out of conference as Michigan, and when it comes down to it... conference record is just that: a record. Both teams are pretty even as far as conference play, so it could come down to this game... unless, or course, other teams fall apart, and remember, the majority of teams in this list are getting in.

New Mexico @ Wyoming, 3:30 PM
The Lobos are currently in a three way tie for first in the Mountain West. They split both of their meetings vs. the other two teams (BYU and Utah, both of whom are locked up in this projection), so the tiebreaker isn't settled there. In fact, I'm not sure how this is settled, so New Mexico would probably just be smart to win today. BYU plays Air Force, one of the lucky few teams that hasn't won a tournament game, and Utah gets TCU, also near the bottom of the conference, so New Mexico has the hardest game of anyone. As for resume, the MWC champion would hold a lot of clout in terms of at large notoriety, but for all the teams on the bubble right now in the MWC, the Lobos have the worst argument resume wise, with a couple of bad losses early on and no real non conference wins to speak of. Probably should win the conference tournament just to be safe.

UNLV @ San Diego St., 10 PM
UNLV has two big things going for them. One, they beat Louisville, which is one of the best wins of anyone on the bubble so far, and two, the conference tournament is on their floor, which always helps. Now for the bad news: The Rebels have some BAD losses in conference and need to win this one (which is no cakewalk by any means) to just get to 10 wins in conference. Outside of the Louisville win, they beat Arizona but that's about it. UNLV needs to win the conference tourney just to be safe, but if they don't, does their resume stack up against the power conference teams on the bubble? It's going to be close, that's for sure.

Stanford @ Arizona, 7:30 PM
Arizona badly needs this game, as the losses are beginning to pile up. Below .500 in the Pac-10 would be a major blow to their resume, but wins over Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington, and UCLA are really, really hard to ignore. Plenty of teams have gotten in on far less than that. Their inconsistency could be their downfall though. You look at losses like @ USC and @ Washington St. and you think, okay, those aren't that bad, but there's SO many of them... @ Texas A&M, home vs. UAB, @ UNLV, @ Stanford... these are all understandable losses but it shows how inconsistent Arizona has been over the course of the season. In any case, this win would keep them at .500 in conference play, and as long as they avoid 7th in the conference, they'll get a bye to the quarters and get a good matchup there... the door's open if the Wildcats want to take it.

South Carolina @ Georgia, 2 PM
To be honest, I'm not sure why the Gamecocks are getting so much attention. They can get to 10 wins with a win today, but that's not a great record in such a bad conference, and at this point they have zero RPI top 50 wins. If they can get to the SEC semis that might be enough, but I can't see a route to the tourney that doesn't involve beating Tennessee or LSU, which probably means SEC finals. Much of their resume has been built up on hype IMO.

Kentucky @ Florida, 2 PM
Now HERE's an elimination game, as I can almost guarantee you the loser of this one is done. But what about the winner? They'll be 9-7 in conference, but there really aren't any good wins to speak of for either team (West Virginia and sweeping Tennessee is pretty much all Kentucky has at this point, and Florida has Washington back in November when they were bad and South Carolina and that's it) and both have some awful losses in conference to boot. I can't really see either getting in without at least making the SEC finals or beating Tennessee or LSU.

St. Mary's
This is pretty much the most interesting case of the season. First off, they lost their best player, Patty Mills, for a good portion of the conference season and both Gonzaga games. In essence, that means with Patty Mills they essentially have one loss. BUT their best win with Mills in the lineup was Providence (N), which really isn't that great. They lost to UTEP (N), but that could be worse and let's face it... it's not as bad as a lot of these teams on the bubble. To confuse matters more, the Gaels actually have another regular season game left on Friday, March 13th (WCC conference play is over), and it's a makeup game against Eastern Washington that was supposed to take place earlier in the year. But that's after the WCC tourney finishes up, so will it actually have any effect on anything? Here's my assessment... they get a bye all the way to the WCC semis due to finishing 2nd in conference. Win that game, beat Gonzaga, you're in. Lose in the semis or lose to Gonzaga in the finals... I don't know. I think with Mills they're one of the 34 best at-large teams in the nation, but I have no evidence to back this up. Thankfully I'm not on the committee.

Tomorrow

VT @ Florida State, 2 PM
Huge game for the Hokies, as they would like to avoid a 7-9 conference record. Good wins are to be found on their resume, including Wake Forest and Clemson, but they didn't beat a few of the ACC bubble teams they're competing against. They're 3-7 vs. the RPI Top 50, but that's somewhat decieving, since that includes a win over Miami (who is not one of the 50 best teams in the game) and doesn't include a loss to Maryland (who probably isn't one of the 50 best teams, but they're in better shape than Miami). The Hokies still have some work to do.

Alabama @ Tennessee, 12 PM
I can't really see the Vols getting left out at this point, although they certainly shouldn't push their luck here. But with the amount of teams collapsing around them, an SEC East title, an 11-5 record in conference, and some good out of conference wins should be more than enough.

Indiana @ Wisconsin, 7 PM
Wisconsin, on the other hand, can't afford to lose at home to one of the worst power conference schools in the game. They didn't do much out of conference (besides beat Virginia Tech on the road... that could be the single most important bubble matchup of the season) and they had that horrible stretch in the Big Ten, but they recovered quickly and beat many of the teams they lost to earlier in the Big Ten slate. They also swept Michigan, which helps. The Badgers are in that logjam fighting for a first round bye, and they could really use it, because they haven't exactly been stellar against the bottom of the conference this year. A win in the Big Ten quarters would be huge.