Best Game: In a slate of blowouts, two games stood out. Georgia Tech came back from a halftime defecit and shot 24 of 25 from the line to beat out Oklahoma State 64-59. James Anderson struggled mightily, going 3-11 from the floor and turning the ball over in the Cowboys' last possession. Meanwhile, Michigan State appeared to have their game comfortably in hand at halftime, but New Mexico State quickly erased the defecit, and the two teams traded buckets until the final possession. A key lane violation turned a two point defecit into three for New Mexico State, and two 3 point attempts fell short as time expired and the Spartans survived.
Best Performance: Jordan Williams was a monster on the glass for Maryland, claiming 17 rebounds and 21 points as the Terps took out a pesky Houston team, 89-77. Clinging to a two point lead at halftime, Maryland took over offensively early in the 2nd half and cruised to a relatively easy victory. Maryland had a 47-27 edge on the glass, aided by Williams' performance.
Upset that didn't happen: New Mexico State's loss was the closest thing to an upset in the nightcap of games. The other four games with 1 through 5 seeds all were double digit victories for the top seeds.
Game that got lost in the mix: Gonzaga handled a good Florida State team pretty easily, jumping out to a 35-19 lead at halftime. The Seminoles chipped away at the lead and brought it to within 5 with two and a half minutes left, but Gonzaga made 8 of their last ten free throws to seal the deal. The Zags made the most of their possessions, hitting as many shots from the field as Florida State but in 17 fewer attempts.
Early Sunday Picks:
Syracuse over Gonzaga (The Zags will not score as easily from the field as they did today... and Cuse will not struggle from the field as much as FSU did)
Ohio State over Georgia Tech (Beware though... the Yellow Jackets have the talent and the size to pull off the upset here)
Maryland over Michigan State (State will find offensive rebounds will not come as easily as they usually do with Williams patrolling the glass)
WVU over Missouri (Another possible upset... watch to see how a guard-deficient Mountaineer team handles the Mizzou press)
Wisconsin over Cornell (Sticking to my guns despite their respective performances today)
Pitt over Xavier
Purdue over Texas A&M (Glad my Boilers responded well today. Sunday will be a much more difficult task, however)
Duke over Cal (I should pick at least one upset today, but I'm not sure I really like any of the matchups. If I had to choose one, I'd say Mizzou over WVU, but even that is a stretch)
Friday, March 19, 2010
Friday, March 19th: Day Game Recaps
Best Game: After all the great games yesterday, this afternoon was a bit of a letdown. Almost by default, the Wofford-Wisconsin game takes this one. The Badgers, up 8 at halftime, appeared to have the game under control. But Wofford made up the difference early in the 2nd half and the two teams traded buckets the rest of the way. In the end, Jon Leuer's 16 footer and subsequent forcing of a turnover gave Wisconsin the victory. This was a pretty ugly game overall, so it's kind of sad this was the best game of the day, but it was at least close.
Best Performance: I'm going to give this one to the entire Cornell team, who took the lead in the first three minutes of the first half and never looked back. The Big Red scored on Temple early and often, putting up 78 on the Owls and making Temple's vaunted half court defense look very, very pedestrian. Louis Dale, Ryan Wittman, and Jeff Foote did most of the scoring for Cornell. Meanwhile, Temple goes out early in what I think was a very disappointing showing for them, despite the overall talent of Cornell.
Upset that didn't happen: Siena played Purdue neck and neck for the 1st half, but the Boilers came out on fire to start the 2nd and held off a late Saint rally to win 72-64. You can look at this game from two angles. One, Purdue clearly dominated most of the 2nd half and essentially built too big of a lead for Siena to take back. However, the Saints stormed back late in the 2nd and actually were in a pretty good position to win that game, even though they never actually took the lead. They had Purdue on the ropes late, but clutch free throw shooting gave the Boilers the victory.
Games that got lost in the mix: Missouri gave Clemson all kinds of fits with their full court press, forcing 20 Clemson turnovers in their 86-78 win. Also, Xavier outlasted Minnesota in a slow, physical game, 65-54.
Exciting games left tonight: Right now Oklahoma State leads Georgia Tech by 5 at the half, but the rest of the games going on are double digit leads. On the late night cap, Louisville-Cal looks to be entertaining, and there's something intriguing about the Syracuse-Vermont matchup, even though it won't likely be very close.
Best Performance: I'm going to give this one to the entire Cornell team, who took the lead in the first three minutes of the first half and never looked back. The Big Red scored on Temple early and often, putting up 78 on the Owls and making Temple's vaunted half court defense look very, very pedestrian. Louis Dale, Ryan Wittman, and Jeff Foote did most of the scoring for Cornell. Meanwhile, Temple goes out early in what I think was a very disappointing showing for them, despite the overall talent of Cornell.
Upset that didn't happen: Siena played Purdue neck and neck for the 1st half, but the Boilers came out on fire to start the 2nd and held off a late Saint rally to win 72-64. You can look at this game from two angles. One, Purdue clearly dominated most of the 2nd half and essentially built too big of a lead for Siena to take back. However, the Saints stormed back late in the 2nd and actually were in a pretty good position to win that game, even though they never actually took the lead. They had Purdue on the ropes late, but clutch free throw shooting gave the Boilers the victory.
Games that got lost in the mix: Missouri gave Clemson all kinds of fits with their full court press, forcing 20 Clemson turnovers in their 86-78 win. Also, Xavier outlasted Minnesota in a slow, physical game, 65-54.
Exciting games left tonight: Right now Oklahoma State leads Georgia Tech by 5 at the half, but the rest of the games going on are double digit leads. On the late night cap, Louisville-Cal looks to be entertaining, and there's something intriguing about the Syracuse-Vermont matchup, even though it won't likely be very close.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Thursday, March 18th: Night Game Recaps
Best Game: Can't go wrong with the Wake Forest-Texas game between two pretty evenly matched teams. For Texas, the final OT period seemed fitting for the way this season has gone. They jumped out to a 7 point lead in the first two minutes of the period, only to watch Wake chip away at it, until Ishamel Smith's jumper with a couple of seconds left seal the deal for the Demon Deacons. The Horns have a lot of growing to do this offseason. As for Wake, the dream remains alive, but they have an extremely tough test ahead of them in the 1 seed Kentucky, who drilled ETSU today to advance easily into the 2nd round.
Best Performance: Difficult to go against Armon Bassett's 32 points on 9-17 shooting, 5-10 from three, and 9-10 from the line. Ohio scored early and often against Georgetown, leading comfortably for the final 30 minutes of the game to beat the Hoyas by 14. Yes, I said led for three quarters of the game. The 14 seed. Over the 3 seed. I knew Georgetown was streaky, but not like this. Hats off to the Bobcats, though. The 9th seed in the MAC found their way into the tournament via the auto bid and have certainly made the most of it so far.
Upset that didn't happen: There were a couple tonight, as Montana gave New Mexico all it could handle before falling by 5 to the Lobos. But I'll go with San Diego State, who matched Tennessee bucket for bucket at the end but couldn't come up with that one last shot to knock out the Vols. Tennessee moves into the next round should thank their lucky stars that G-Town is gone (not that Ohio is going to be a cakewalk, but just saying).
Game that got lost in the mix: Those of you who stayed up to watch the late game almost got a thriller at the end. New Mexico seemed to have the game in hand about halfway through the 2nd half, but Montana wasn't having any of it. Montana was able to get it within one but was unable to overtake the Lobos, eventually losing 62-57. Brian Qvale had 26 for the Grizzlies. New Mexico advances to play Washington, who upsetted the 6 seed Marquette on Quincy Pondexter's leaner to give the Huskies an 80-78 victory.
Early Saturday picks:
St. Mary's over Villanova (same as before... nothing Nova did convinced me this game is gonna turn out any different than I expect)
Butler over Murray State (maybe it's time to stop hating on the Bulldogs and believe they're for real)
Tennessee over Ohio
Kansas over Northern Iowa (KU looked like they were sleepwalking through their game and still easily won... I know it was vs. the 16 seed, but UNI should still be scared)
Baylor over ODU (Although I'm thinking that if Tweety Carter has more games like this, Baylor isn't going anywhere in this tournament)
Washington over New Mexico (If I'm going to try and cash in on the hot hand, might as well do it here. If this is the Washington team we expected back in November, then they're sorely underseeded at 11. And that makes them VERY dangerous)
Kansas State over BYU (But I'm not ruling out a 45 point performance by Jimmer and a BYU win)
Kentucky over Wake Forest (I suspect this game isn't gonna even be close)
Games to watch tomorrow afternoon: Minnesota-Xavier, Cornell-Temple, Siena-Purdue, Missouri-Clemson, and Utah St.-Texas A&M all look to be good. And those are just the games we think will be close. It turned out the 2-15 and 3-14 matchups were some of the best games on Thursday. Who knows what March will bring?
Best Performance: Difficult to go against Armon Bassett's 32 points on 9-17 shooting, 5-10 from three, and 9-10 from the line. Ohio scored early and often against Georgetown, leading comfortably for the final 30 minutes of the game to beat the Hoyas by 14. Yes, I said led for three quarters of the game. The 14 seed. Over the 3 seed. I knew Georgetown was streaky, but not like this. Hats off to the Bobcats, though. The 9th seed in the MAC found their way into the tournament via the auto bid and have certainly made the most of it so far.
Upset that didn't happen: There were a couple tonight, as Montana gave New Mexico all it could handle before falling by 5 to the Lobos. But I'll go with San Diego State, who matched Tennessee bucket for bucket at the end but couldn't come up with that one last shot to knock out the Vols. Tennessee moves into the next round should thank their lucky stars that G-Town is gone (not that Ohio is going to be a cakewalk, but just saying).
Game that got lost in the mix: Those of you who stayed up to watch the late game almost got a thriller at the end. New Mexico seemed to have the game in hand about halfway through the 2nd half, but Montana wasn't having any of it. Montana was able to get it within one but was unable to overtake the Lobos, eventually losing 62-57. Brian Qvale had 26 for the Grizzlies. New Mexico advances to play Washington, who upsetted the 6 seed Marquette on Quincy Pondexter's leaner to give the Huskies an 80-78 victory.
Early Saturday picks:
St. Mary's over Villanova (same as before... nothing Nova did convinced me this game is gonna turn out any different than I expect)
Butler over Murray State (maybe it's time to stop hating on the Bulldogs and believe they're for real)
Tennessee over Ohio
Kansas over Northern Iowa (KU looked like they were sleepwalking through their game and still easily won... I know it was vs. the 16 seed, but UNI should still be scared)
Baylor over ODU (Although I'm thinking that if Tweety Carter has more games like this, Baylor isn't going anywhere in this tournament)
Washington over New Mexico (If I'm going to try and cash in on the hot hand, might as well do it here. If this is the Washington team we expected back in November, then they're sorely underseeded at 11. And that makes them VERY dangerous)
Kansas State over BYU (But I'm not ruling out a 45 point performance by Jimmer and a BYU win)
Kentucky over Wake Forest (I suspect this game isn't gonna even be close)
Games to watch tomorrow afternoon: Minnesota-Xavier, Cornell-Temple, Siena-Purdue, Missouri-Clemson, and Utah St.-Texas A&M all look to be good. And those are just the games we think will be close. It turned out the 2-15 and 3-14 matchups were some of the best games on Thursday. Who knows what March will bring?
Thursday, March 18th: Day Game Recaps
Best Game: Wow, a lot of choices so far. I'm a sucker for buzzer beaters, so I have to go with Murray State-Vanderbilt. Close the entire way, capped off by a Danero Thomas 16 footer for the win. I'm somewhat surprised he got as good a look as he did, but he still had to make the shot. Well executed play by Murray State, and a heck of a win to advance to the 2nd round. I know a lot of people (myself included) saw this Murray State team as a potential upset pick in the first few rounds, and they came through.
Best Performance: Has to be Jimmer Fredette's 37 point gem in BYU's first 1st round win in 8 years, beating Florida 99-92 in double OT. The best part was, his teammate almost played better than he did. Michael Loyd Jr. came out of nowhere to score 26 on 7-10 shooting. Florida had chances at the end of regulation and the 1st OT and couldn't get off a good shot either time. Florida's inability to create consistent looks in the paint eventually became their downfall. In the future, I would suggest that Billy Donovan tell his kids not to put up 32 threes when you shoot 31% from three as a team. Meanwhile, BYU looked efficient and effective offensively and should give K-State (who looked impressive in their own right) one heck of a game.
Upset that didn't happen: The kids from RMU played their butts off and Nova did everything short of giving the game away at the end, including Scottie Reynolds going 2-15 from the floor, the entire team missing all kinds of layups and open jumpers, turning the ball over a couple of times in the last minutes and passing up a wide open layup to take a 5 point lead with 15 seconds to go. No offense to Nova, but it's a shame when a team plays that poorly and still ends up winning the game. Nova better be ready to play on Saturday, because Omar Samhan looked awfully good today and he will be ready to dominate the Wildcats inside. Honorable mention goes out to Sam Houston State, who hung with Baylor for 38 minutes before the Bears finally took over.
Game that got lost in the mix: Notre Dame-Old Dominion was incredibly slow and boring in the 2nd half, but it was exciting at the end, as Carleton Scott's 3 pointer rimmed in and out, giving Old Dominion a 51-50 win for the first upset of the day. ODU's height and 2-3 zone gave ND problems in the 2nd half, and the Irish struggled to hit open jumpers and only got 3 foul shot attempts on the day.
Most exciting game left tonight: I'm looking forward to Marquette-Washington, Tennessee-San Diego State, and Wake Forest-Texas.
Best Performance: Has to be Jimmer Fredette's 37 point gem in BYU's first 1st round win in 8 years, beating Florida 99-92 in double OT. The best part was, his teammate almost played better than he did. Michael Loyd Jr. came out of nowhere to score 26 on 7-10 shooting. Florida had chances at the end of regulation and the 1st OT and couldn't get off a good shot either time. Florida's inability to create consistent looks in the paint eventually became their downfall. In the future, I would suggest that Billy Donovan tell his kids not to put up 32 threes when you shoot 31% from three as a team. Meanwhile, BYU looked efficient and effective offensively and should give K-State (who looked impressive in their own right) one heck of a game.
Upset that didn't happen: The kids from RMU played their butts off and Nova did everything short of giving the game away at the end, including Scottie Reynolds going 2-15 from the floor, the entire team missing all kinds of layups and open jumpers, turning the ball over a couple of times in the last minutes and passing up a wide open layup to take a 5 point lead with 15 seconds to go. No offense to Nova, but it's a shame when a team plays that poorly and still ends up winning the game. Nova better be ready to play on Saturday, because Omar Samhan looked awfully good today and he will be ready to dominate the Wildcats inside. Honorable mention goes out to Sam Houston State, who hung with Baylor for 38 minutes before the Bears finally took over.
Game that got lost in the mix: Notre Dame-Old Dominion was incredibly slow and boring in the 2nd half, but it was exciting at the end, as Carleton Scott's 3 pointer rimmed in and out, giving Old Dominion a 51-50 win for the first upset of the day. ODU's height and 2-3 zone gave ND problems in the 2nd half, and the Irish struggled to hit open jumpers and only got 3 foul shot attempts on the day.
Most exciting game left tonight: I'm looking forward to Marquette-Washington, Tennessee-San Diego State, and Wake Forest-Texas.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
NCAA Tournament Preview: Final Four
So I have my picks, and I'm a bit scared. Normally I waver back and forth a lot, but I feel pretty good about this year's selections. Either this means my bracket will be amazing, or it will be terrible and I'll look like an idiot. In either case, you'll have to listen to me blab on, so deal with it. Here's my Final Four outlook:
Kansas vs. Kansas State: Interesting Final Four matchup, given these teams have already played three times. Rather than go through an analysis, I'm just going to say what happened in the previous three games:
Jan. 30th: Five guys score in double figures for KU and the Jayhawks shoot 50% in what was a closely contested battle with Sherron Collins hitting a lay-up with 10 seconds left to give KU a 81-79 victory.
March 3rd: No one other than Pullen and Clemente show up for K-State, and Kansas shoots 51% with 16 assists on 26 made baskets for a relatively easy 82-65 win.
Saturday: Kansas holds K-State to 34% shooting and they don't lead by less than 14 over the final 13 minutes to win 72-64 and take the Big 12 tournament.
Most times, people say the reason it's difficult to sweep a team is because they've seen you so many times (doesn't that work the other way) and the other team is more motivated to win than you. But if you can't get motivated for a Final Four game, why are you there? And outside of the 1st game, Kansas really seems to know how to shut down K-State. I have no reason to pick against the Jayhawks.
Score: Kansas 80, Kansas State 71
West Virginia vs. Baylor: What an odd matchup. Let's look at each team's weaknesses. The main things I saw about West Virginia is they don't have a solid PG and they're undersized at the 5. Baylor can exploit both matchups. However, I like West Virginia here. Here's why:
1. Rebounding. West Virginia is an excellent offensive rebounding team. Baylor, for it's size, gives up a fair amount of 2nd chance boards. Not a good sign.
2. Turnovers. Baylor has been turnover-prone at times this season, meaning more possessions for West Virginia.
3. Foul shooting. Not really bad, just lack of it. Many of Baylor's top scorers are not guys that get to the line consistently, and that adds an element of inconsistency for an offensive. Baylor has been excellent offensively all year long, but against a tough, physical defense, you don't want to be shooting perimeter jumpers all night long.
Also, Desean Butler. Had to get that in here somewhere.
Score: West Virginia 65, Baylor 61
FINALS: Kansas vs. West Virginia
This is a pretty easy pick for me. Not saying West Virginia can't hang with Kansas. However, KU just does too many things too well. They're so versatile offensively... they can play fast or slow, they can score inside or outside, they can get to the foul line, they hit the offensive glass pretty well... it's such a difficult team to slow down. Plus, West Virginia will likely have to be on their game offensively for 40 minutes... not one of their strong suits. I predict that Kansas will take out West Virginia (or whoever else is in that spot, for that matter) and will be your 2009-2010 NCAA Champs.
Score: Kansas 78, West Virginia 64
Kansas vs. Kansas State: Interesting Final Four matchup, given these teams have already played three times. Rather than go through an analysis, I'm just going to say what happened in the previous three games:
Jan. 30th: Five guys score in double figures for KU and the Jayhawks shoot 50% in what was a closely contested battle with Sherron Collins hitting a lay-up with 10 seconds left to give KU a 81-79 victory.
March 3rd: No one other than Pullen and Clemente show up for K-State, and Kansas shoots 51% with 16 assists on 26 made baskets for a relatively easy 82-65 win.
Saturday: Kansas holds K-State to 34% shooting and they don't lead by less than 14 over the final 13 minutes to win 72-64 and take the Big 12 tournament.
Most times, people say the reason it's difficult to sweep a team is because they've seen you so many times (doesn't that work the other way) and the other team is more motivated to win than you. But if you can't get motivated for a Final Four game, why are you there? And outside of the 1st game, Kansas really seems to know how to shut down K-State. I have no reason to pick against the Jayhawks.
Score: Kansas 80, Kansas State 71
West Virginia vs. Baylor: What an odd matchup. Let's look at each team's weaknesses. The main things I saw about West Virginia is they don't have a solid PG and they're undersized at the 5. Baylor can exploit both matchups. However, I like West Virginia here. Here's why:
1. Rebounding. West Virginia is an excellent offensive rebounding team. Baylor, for it's size, gives up a fair amount of 2nd chance boards. Not a good sign.
2. Turnovers. Baylor has been turnover-prone at times this season, meaning more possessions for West Virginia.
3. Foul shooting. Not really bad, just lack of it. Many of Baylor's top scorers are not guys that get to the line consistently, and that adds an element of inconsistency for an offensive. Baylor has been excellent offensively all year long, but against a tough, physical defense, you don't want to be shooting perimeter jumpers all night long.
Also, Desean Butler. Had to get that in here somewhere.
Score: West Virginia 65, Baylor 61
FINALS: Kansas vs. West Virginia
This is a pretty easy pick for me. Not saying West Virginia can't hang with Kansas. However, KU just does too many things too well. They're so versatile offensively... they can play fast or slow, they can score inside or outside, they can get to the foul line, they hit the offensive glass pretty well... it's such a difficult team to slow down. Plus, West Virginia will likely have to be on their game offensively for 40 minutes... not one of their strong suits. I predict that Kansas will take out West Virginia (or whoever else is in that spot, for that matter) and will be your 2009-2010 NCAA Champs.
Score: Kansas 78, West Virginia 64
NCAA Tournament Preview: South Regional
I heard someone say Duke is the worst 1 seed ever. Not sure the South regional warrants that statement, but for a 1, Duke does have a very limited offense. They have three options: Singler, Scheyer, Nolan Smith. They provide almost 70% of Duke's offense. Now, all three are very talented, mind you, and Duke does a ton of other things well, but that's still a lot of offense resting on only a few guys. Like other 1's, there's nothing stopping Duke from going down early. Let's find out how it could happen.
Favorite: Duke. Let's not make this sound like Duke is terrible. They have two guys playing around All-American level, they pull down a ton of offensive boards, they almost always win the turnover battle, and they're a very, very good defensive team. This is why they won 29 games this year. They're not a pushover by any means.
Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier, Duke relies a ton on three guys to provide most of their offense. If one guy is off, that's pressure on the other two to succeed. If two of them are off... I don't know what they're going to do. Also, they're extremely thin in the backcourt and most of their big men are generally useless at things other than being tall (although I will admit... Zoubek has actually been playing fairly well recently)
Who they could lose to: The most likely culprits are Villanova and Baylor. Unfortunately, I don't see how an undersized Purdue team or an undersized Texas A&M team is going to beat the Blue Devils, and nobody else really inserts any fear into me.
Sleeper: Notre Dame. So how does this work again... Notre Dame goes from a one man, inefficient offense to an efficent, deep, talented halfcourt offense overnight? Okay... well anyway, ND is as hot as anyone right now, and they actually are giving Harangody some offensive support, which opens things up for the All-American inside. Now they just gotta play some defense and they could go deep in this tournament.
Who will win: Baylor. How? I'll save that for later...
Picks:
First Round
Duke over whoever
Louisville over Cal (tell me how Cal got into this place without actually beating anyone presently in this tournament other than Washington?)
Texas A&M over Utah State (Pretty sure the only three teams in D-I that are named the Aggies are in the tournament, and two are playing each other. Wierd)
Purdue over Siena (Gotta have some school pride... plus the Saints don't have the size to really hurt us)
Notre Dame over Old Dominion (It's too bad the Monarchs can't get a better matchup, because I'd like them as a sleeper otherwise)
Baylor over Sam Houston State
St. Mary's over Richmond (No reason other than I saw Omar Samhan play this week and he's a total badass)
Villanova over Robert Morris
Second Round
Duke over Louisville (Scheyer is a one-man press breaking machine)
Purdue over Texas A&M (Combination of reasons stated above and wishful thinking)
Baylor over Notre Dame (This could really go either way and completely screw up my bracket)
St. Mary's over Villanova (If I'm going to pick a 10 over a 2, this is it. The worst 2 seed in the tournament vs. a red-hot Gaels team oozing with confidence. Plus Nova has no answer for Samhan inside)
Regional Semis
Duke over Purdue (Hopefully it's not as ugly as the game at Mackey last year)
Baylor over St. Mary's (Size + efficiency on offense spells doom for St. Mary's)
Regional Finals
Baylor over Duke (If Baylor can get to this point, and that's definitely and if, I feel very confident in this pick. Baylor has flown COMPLETELY under the radar this year for no good reason. They have a potential lottery pick in Ekpe Udoh, they're big inside, LaceDarius Dunn has been outstanding this year... they can handle Duke's presence inside and will put the Blue Devil perimeter and post defense to the test. The variety of options on the offensive end and defensive presence at the basket will make the difference)
Pick: BAYLOR BEARS
Favorite: Duke. Let's not make this sound like Duke is terrible. They have two guys playing around All-American level, they pull down a ton of offensive boards, they almost always win the turnover battle, and they're a very, very good defensive team. This is why they won 29 games this year. They're not a pushover by any means.
Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier, Duke relies a ton on three guys to provide most of their offense. If one guy is off, that's pressure on the other two to succeed. If two of them are off... I don't know what they're going to do. Also, they're extremely thin in the backcourt and most of their big men are generally useless at things other than being tall (although I will admit... Zoubek has actually been playing fairly well recently)
Who they could lose to: The most likely culprits are Villanova and Baylor. Unfortunately, I don't see how an undersized Purdue team or an undersized Texas A&M team is going to beat the Blue Devils, and nobody else really inserts any fear into me.
Sleeper: Notre Dame. So how does this work again... Notre Dame goes from a one man, inefficient offense to an efficent, deep, talented halfcourt offense overnight? Okay... well anyway, ND is as hot as anyone right now, and they actually are giving Harangody some offensive support, which opens things up for the All-American inside. Now they just gotta play some defense and they could go deep in this tournament.
Who will win: Baylor. How? I'll save that for later...
Picks:
First Round
Duke over whoever
Louisville over Cal (tell me how Cal got into this place without actually beating anyone presently in this tournament other than Washington?)
Texas A&M over Utah State (Pretty sure the only three teams in D-I that are named the Aggies are in the tournament, and two are playing each other. Wierd)
Purdue over Siena (Gotta have some school pride... plus the Saints don't have the size to really hurt us)
Notre Dame over Old Dominion (It's too bad the Monarchs can't get a better matchup, because I'd like them as a sleeper otherwise)
Baylor over Sam Houston State
St. Mary's over Richmond (No reason other than I saw Omar Samhan play this week and he's a total badass)
Villanova over Robert Morris
Second Round
Duke over Louisville (Scheyer is a one-man press breaking machine)
Purdue over Texas A&M (Combination of reasons stated above and wishful thinking)
Baylor over Notre Dame (This could really go either way and completely screw up my bracket)
St. Mary's over Villanova (If I'm going to pick a 10 over a 2, this is it. The worst 2 seed in the tournament vs. a red-hot Gaels team oozing with confidence. Plus Nova has no answer for Samhan inside)
Regional Semis
Duke over Purdue (Hopefully it's not as ugly as the game at Mackey last year)
Baylor over St. Mary's (Size + efficiency on offense spells doom for St. Mary's)
Regional Finals
Baylor over Duke (If Baylor can get to this point, and that's definitely and if, I feel very confident in this pick. Baylor has flown COMPLETELY under the radar this year for no good reason. They have a potential lottery pick in Ekpe Udoh, they're big inside, LaceDarius Dunn has been outstanding this year... they can handle Duke's presence inside and will put the Blue Devil perimeter and post defense to the test. The variety of options on the offensive end and defensive presence at the basket will make the difference)
Pick: BAYLOR BEARS
NCAA Tournament Preview: East Regional
The Kentucky regional. What fun. I really have no idea what's going to happen here. It initially seems like a straight-forward 1 vs. 2 matchup in the Elite Eight, but both teams have their flaws and several teams that can expose those flaws along the way. If one or the other goes down, then it's anyone's guess as to who will be in the regional final. That's what makes this year exciting though. Onward:
Favorite: Kentucky. I swear, this team won half their games this year by less than 10 points. That means one of two things: they're playing with fire and not really that good, or they're really good and just that much more talented than anyone else that they can win games at will down the stretch. I think it's a bit of both, actually.
Why they could lose: They have four guys that can all score 25 in any given night, yet they still struggle to score in a halfcourt set at times. How does that work? Also, they can't shoot threes at all, and they're all freshman. This means any one of the following teams could beat them: a slow team, a physical team, an experienced team, a team with size, and a team that plays a good zone. Problem: about half the teams in this bracket fit under that description. Not a good sign.
Who could beat them: Any of the following: Texas, Wake Forest, Temple, Cornell, Wisconsin, Marquette, New Mexico, Clemson, Missouri, West Virginia. I just named most of the bracket. Again, sometimes I don't understand how this team won this many games. I guess it's because they have the best PG (Wall) and most difficult one-on-one matchup (Cousins) in the nation. I hate you, Calipari.
Sleeper: Most everybody who wants to pick a sleeper from this region is picking Cornell. So I'm going to take the team playing Cornell in the first round: Temple. Unless you forgot, this team handled Villanova pretty easily. They're physical, they're tough defensively, and they limit 2nd chance points. That spells issues for Kentucky if you ask me. And West Virginia has been known to stall out in halfcourt sets as well. Make no mistake: the Owls have the tools to take this region.
Who will win: West Virginia. I actually would not take them in a head to head matchup vs. UK. Good thing they won't end up playing (see what I did there?). Anyway, with Desean Butler taking over this team and turning into Mr. Clutch, WVU appears to be hitting on all cylinders at the moment. Then again, this team was 143rd in effective FG% in the nation. So who knows
Picks:
First Round
UK over East Tennessee State (ETSU gave Pitt a game last year as a 16. Don't be surprised if this one is a classic Lee Corso "closer than the experts think")
Wake Forest over Texas (Is it sad that Texas was #1 in the country at one point and I didn't really even think about this pick? The answer is yes)
Temple over Cornell (I think people forgot that Cornell lost that game to Kansas)
Wisconsin over Wofford
Marquette over Washington (I really want to pick the red-hot Huskies, but Marquette has played better than their record suggests this year)
New Mexico over Montana
Clemson over Missouri (Only because I still don't trust Mizzou away from home)
West Virginia over Morgan State
Second Round
UK over Wake Forest (Maybe an upset?... no, not yet. Patience)
Wisconsin over Temple (Yes, I did just hype up Temple and then pick them to lose in the 2nd round. Gotta keep you on your toes)
New Mexico over Marquette
West Virginia over Clemson (although watching WVU try to handle a full court press for 40 minutes without a good PG will be entertaining)
Regional Semis
Wisconsin over UK (Several reasons. First off, Wisconsin will not be sped up. Ever. This means UK will have to win a halfcourt game. Secondly, Wisconsin has some good weapons in a halfcourt set: Trevon Hughes has turned into a beast this year, Jordan Taylor has been excellent, Leuer does his thing, and they have several good spot up shooters as well. Now, they currently don't have a way of dealing with Cousins, and if it does become a shootout... okay, okay, my logic falls apart here. Just deal with the pick. Plus maybe Cousins does something stupid and gets himself ejected)
West Virginia over New Mexico (I should pick the upset here... New Mexico has excellent guard play and offense, and they limit offensive rebounds which is WVU's forte... but WVU's too versatile and Butler's playing too well right now to lose)
Regional Finals
West Virginia over Wisconsin (Same sort of thing as before. Wisconsin can slow down and stall out UK, but West Virginia's more prepared for a halfcourt, physical game. Plus Desean Butler has been the man recently. Did I mention Desean Butler?)
Winner: WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Favorite: Kentucky. I swear, this team won half their games this year by less than 10 points. That means one of two things: they're playing with fire and not really that good, or they're really good and just that much more talented than anyone else that they can win games at will down the stretch. I think it's a bit of both, actually.
Why they could lose: They have four guys that can all score 25 in any given night, yet they still struggle to score in a halfcourt set at times. How does that work? Also, they can't shoot threes at all, and they're all freshman. This means any one of the following teams could beat them: a slow team, a physical team, an experienced team, a team with size, and a team that plays a good zone. Problem: about half the teams in this bracket fit under that description. Not a good sign.
Who could beat them: Any of the following: Texas, Wake Forest, Temple, Cornell, Wisconsin, Marquette, New Mexico, Clemson, Missouri, West Virginia. I just named most of the bracket. Again, sometimes I don't understand how this team won this many games. I guess it's because they have the best PG (Wall) and most difficult one-on-one matchup (Cousins) in the nation. I hate you, Calipari.
Sleeper: Most everybody who wants to pick a sleeper from this region is picking Cornell. So I'm going to take the team playing Cornell in the first round: Temple. Unless you forgot, this team handled Villanova pretty easily. They're physical, they're tough defensively, and they limit 2nd chance points. That spells issues for Kentucky if you ask me. And West Virginia has been known to stall out in halfcourt sets as well. Make no mistake: the Owls have the tools to take this region.
Who will win: West Virginia. I actually would not take them in a head to head matchup vs. UK. Good thing they won't end up playing (see what I did there?). Anyway, with Desean Butler taking over this team and turning into Mr. Clutch, WVU appears to be hitting on all cylinders at the moment. Then again, this team was 143rd in effective FG% in the nation. So who knows
Picks:
First Round
UK over East Tennessee State (ETSU gave Pitt a game last year as a 16. Don't be surprised if this one is a classic Lee Corso "closer than the experts think")
Wake Forest over Texas (Is it sad that Texas was #1 in the country at one point and I didn't really even think about this pick? The answer is yes)
Temple over Cornell (I think people forgot that Cornell lost that game to Kansas)
Wisconsin over Wofford
Marquette over Washington (I really want to pick the red-hot Huskies, but Marquette has played better than their record suggests this year)
New Mexico over Montana
Clemson over Missouri (Only because I still don't trust Mizzou away from home)
West Virginia over Morgan State
Second Round
UK over Wake Forest (Maybe an upset?... no, not yet. Patience)
Wisconsin over Temple (Yes, I did just hype up Temple and then pick them to lose in the 2nd round. Gotta keep you on your toes)
New Mexico over Marquette
West Virginia over Clemson (although watching WVU try to handle a full court press for 40 minutes without a good PG will be entertaining)
Regional Semis
Wisconsin over UK (Several reasons. First off, Wisconsin will not be sped up. Ever. This means UK will have to win a halfcourt game. Secondly, Wisconsin has some good weapons in a halfcourt set: Trevon Hughes has turned into a beast this year, Jordan Taylor has been excellent, Leuer does his thing, and they have several good spot up shooters as well. Now, they currently don't have a way of dealing with Cousins, and if it does become a shootout... okay, okay, my logic falls apart here. Just deal with the pick. Plus maybe Cousins does something stupid and gets himself ejected)
West Virginia over New Mexico (I should pick the upset here... New Mexico has excellent guard play and offense, and they limit offensive rebounds which is WVU's forte... but WVU's too versatile and Butler's playing too well right now to lose)
Regional Finals
West Virginia over Wisconsin (Same sort of thing as before. Wisconsin can slow down and stall out UK, but West Virginia's more prepared for a halfcourt, physical game. Plus Desean Butler has been the man recently. Did I mention Desean Butler?)
Winner: WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Monday, March 15, 2010
NCAA Tournament Preview: West Regional
On to the West regional, which has some very intriguing upset possibilities. I could easily see anyone from 4 on down losing in the first round, and after that point who really knows, especially if Onuaku's injury is somewhat serious. By the way, Syracuse went from my favorite a couple of weeks ago to a potential early exit in the tournament. It depends on matchups and health concerns. But we'll get to that in a minute.
Favorites: Syracuse. What a wild three weeks it's been. After a Saturday where not only KU and UK fall but the Orange pound Nova in a sold out Carrier Dome to jump to #1, Syracuse now finds itself on a two game losing streak and with a potentially serious injury to its starting center. No question the Cuse can ball, but that zone has looked particularly shaky these past two games, and there's a very fine line between stout and extremely flaky when it comes to a zone. Let's just say Syracuse hopes nobody catches fire from three early in this tournament.
Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier (and have said this entire year), Syracuse is vulnerable to small teams that can penetrate the zone and hit perimeter jumpers. For the Orange, the zone is simultaneously their best friend (lots of steals that turn into points) and their worst enemy. It also helps to have a point forward that can operate well in the high post and break the zone down from the inside out.
Who they could lose to: The two seed, Kansas State, particularly intrigues me, because they have both the guard play and the point forwards to break down the zone. Beyond that, Pitt has already beaten the Orange, but the rest of the field looks pretty thin. Unless you think Butler is gonna catch fire from the outside in their Sweet 16 matchup.
Sleeper: BYU. I've never particularly liked unathletic mid-major squads, but something about this Jimmer Fredette character intrigues me. Maybe it's just the name. But the guy's an insanely efficient and proficient scorer (much like Stephen Curry was) and he may be able to put his team on his back and roll off a few upsets. It's not like K-State and Pitt are immune to imploding, either.
Who will win: Kansas State. Is this a risky pick? Probably. But they've got the tools to win this thing. Like I said, I think they match up well vs. the Orange, and the bracket isn't particularly intimidating otherwise (although Pitt will put up a good fight in the regional semis).
PICKS:
1st Round
Syracuse over Vermont (No Vermont upset this time... sorry Catamounts)
Florida State over Gonzaga (Gotta stick with one of those under-the-radar ACC teams... as long as they figure out how to score consistently)
UTEP over Butler (I've been hating on Butler all year long. No reason to stop now)
Murray State over Vanderbilt (See what I mean? It's not like these are crazy picks either. They really could happen)
Minnesota over Xavier
Pitt over Oakland
BYU over Florida
Kansas State over North Texas
2nd Round
Syracuse over Florida State (I'll guess the Seminoles score somewhere between 25 and 27 points in this one. Okay, fine. I'll give them an even 30.)
UTEP over Murray State (I'm probably too excited about a couple of teams that really haven't beaten anyone. Well, you only live once. Go Miners!)
Pitt over Minnesota (Every time I look at the Panthers I think "Really? This team is that good?" But they actually have a lot of guys that can create their own shot for a team that's supposed to be "depleted" from last year. Can they handle size? We'll find out in the 2nd round no matter what because Xavier's also a big team)
Kansas State over BYU (This game will be something like 67-55, with Jimmer scoring 50 points)
Regional Semis
Syracuse over UTEP (Pretty straightforward matchup for the Orange)
Kansas State over Pitt (This will be an entertaining game to watch. Look for K-State's forwards to make the difference here, as they have all year long)
Regional Finals
Kansas State over Syracuse (I've mentioned this before, but Kansas State has two guards that can score in bunches, they get to the line, and they have a surprisingly athletic front line that crashes the offensive boards like mad men. This is NOT a good matchup for Syracuse. I'm taking the Wildcats if they can get this far)
Winner: KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
Favorites: Syracuse. What a wild three weeks it's been. After a Saturday where not only KU and UK fall but the Orange pound Nova in a sold out Carrier Dome to jump to #1, Syracuse now finds itself on a two game losing streak and with a potentially serious injury to its starting center. No question the Cuse can ball, but that zone has looked particularly shaky these past two games, and there's a very fine line between stout and extremely flaky when it comes to a zone. Let's just say Syracuse hopes nobody catches fire from three early in this tournament.
Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier (and have said this entire year), Syracuse is vulnerable to small teams that can penetrate the zone and hit perimeter jumpers. For the Orange, the zone is simultaneously their best friend (lots of steals that turn into points) and their worst enemy. It also helps to have a point forward that can operate well in the high post and break the zone down from the inside out.
Who they could lose to: The two seed, Kansas State, particularly intrigues me, because they have both the guard play and the point forwards to break down the zone. Beyond that, Pitt has already beaten the Orange, but the rest of the field looks pretty thin. Unless you think Butler is gonna catch fire from the outside in their Sweet 16 matchup.
Sleeper: BYU. I've never particularly liked unathletic mid-major squads, but something about this Jimmer Fredette character intrigues me. Maybe it's just the name. But the guy's an insanely efficient and proficient scorer (much like Stephen Curry was) and he may be able to put his team on his back and roll off a few upsets. It's not like K-State and Pitt are immune to imploding, either.
Who will win: Kansas State. Is this a risky pick? Probably. But they've got the tools to win this thing. Like I said, I think they match up well vs. the Orange, and the bracket isn't particularly intimidating otherwise (although Pitt will put up a good fight in the regional semis).
PICKS:
1st Round
Syracuse over Vermont (No Vermont upset this time... sorry Catamounts)
Florida State over Gonzaga (Gotta stick with one of those under-the-radar ACC teams... as long as they figure out how to score consistently)
UTEP over Butler (I've been hating on Butler all year long. No reason to stop now)
Murray State over Vanderbilt (See what I mean? It's not like these are crazy picks either. They really could happen)
Minnesota over Xavier
Pitt over Oakland
BYU over Florida
Kansas State over North Texas
2nd Round
Syracuse over Florida State (I'll guess the Seminoles score somewhere between 25 and 27 points in this one. Okay, fine. I'll give them an even 30.)
UTEP over Murray State (I'm probably too excited about a couple of teams that really haven't beaten anyone. Well, you only live once. Go Miners!)
Pitt over Minnesota (Every time I look at the Panthers I think "Really? This team is that good?" But they actually have a lot of guys that can create their own shot for a team that's supposed to be "depleted" from last year. Can they handle size? We'll find out in the 2nd round no matter what because Xavier's also a big team)
Kansas State over BYU (This game will be something like 67-55, with Jimmer scoring 50 points)
Regional Semis
Syracuse over UTEP (Pretty straightforward matchup for the Orange)
Kansas State over Pitt (This will be an entertaining game to watch. Look for K-State's forwards to make the difference here, as they have all year long)
Regional Finals
Kansas State over Syracuse (I've mentioned this before, but Kansas State has two guards that can score in bunches, they get to the line, and they have a surprisingly athletic front line that crashes the offensive boards like mad men. This is NOT a good matchup for Syracuse. I'm taking the Wildcats if they can get this far)
Winner: KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
Sunday, March 14, 2010
NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Regional
The Tournament is finally here! That means some analysis from you know who. Over the next few days I'll preview each region with favorites, potential sleepers, and who'll be there at the end. We'll start out with the bracket containing the #1 overall team in the tournament, the Kansas Jayhawks in the Midwest Regional.
Favorites: Kansas, obviously. They're talented outside (Collins, Henry) and inside (Marcus Morris, Aldrich), they can play a variety of styles, and they're excellent on both ends of the ball. Definitely the favorite in this region.
Why they could lose: It will probably take some level of implosion for Kansas to lose early, but don't think it can't happen. There have been times KU has struggled offensively this year (Memphis, Cornell, Tennessee, Oklahoma State) and when that happens, Sherron Collins sometimes tries to do everything and problems occur. It's not a trend for KU to struggle offensively, but it can happen.
Who they could lose to: I don't see KU losing before the Elite Eight (Maryland's too small, Michigan State's not good enough) but at that point there are a whole host of teams that could give KU problems, including Ohio State, Georgetown, Tennessee, and even Oklahoma State or Georgia Tech. The bottom half of the Midwest is probably the strongest 8 team section in the tournament.
Sleeper: Georgia Tech. I know they have turnover problems, but when you have not one but two post players that can create their own shot in Lawal and Favors, you're a dangerous team. Especially when the teams you're trying to upset (Oklahoma State, Ohio State) lack size.
Who will win: Kansas. They're too good to not pick. But don't be surprised if red-hot teams like Georgetown or Ohio State end up taking them down. Especially keep an eye on Ohio State... anytime you have the best player in college basketball, you're a threat to win the game.
PICKS:
1st Round
Kansas over Lehigh
UNLV over Northern Iowa (I'll take UNI over any Valley team... otherwise, they're not dynamic enough for my liking)
Michigan State over New Mexico State
Maryland over Houston
Tennessee over San Diego State (The Vols are one of those teams that could lose in the first round or take the entire region)
Georgetown over Ohio (A couple of weeks ago I would've picked against G-Town in the first round against almost anyone. Then Chris Wright decided he was gonna be a beast)
Georgia Tech over Oklahoma State (Tough to pick against he best 2 guard in the land, but I believe in the Yellow Jackets that much)
Ohio State over UC Santa Barbera
2nd Round
Kansas over UNLV
Maryland over Michigan State (I remember seeing a blog post about three weeks ago where some guy compared Michigan State's resume to Maryland's and asked why Michigan State was a top 15 team and Maryland wasn't ranked. He was exactly right)
Georgetown over Tennessee (Hopefully the Hoyas don't go all last year on me like they have at times this season)
Ohio State over Georgia Tech (Sooo tempting to pick the upset... but the Buckeyes have been playing too well right now. Watch out though if GT attacks the small OSU frontline and gets a thin Buckeye team into foul trouble early)
Regional Semis
Kansas over Maryland (The Terps have no one to deal with Marcus Morris, much less Aldrich. Vazquez will do his thing, but Jayhawks are just too deep and talented)
Ohio State over Georgetown (The Buckeyes will sit back in that zone, deny passes to Monroe and force Wright and Freeman to beat them from the outside. Meanwhile, Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country at turning defense into offense, bad news for a team that has been turnover prone at many points this year)
Regional Finals
Kansas over Ohio State (Similar reasons... too much size, too much depth for OSU to handle; however, Turner is the wild card. He can drop 40 on anyone in this tournament and win the game for his team. Stay tuned)
Winner: KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Favorites: Kansas, obviously. They're talented outside (Collins, Henry) and inside (Marcus Morris, Aldrich), they can play a variety of styles, and they're excellent on both ends of the ball. Definitely the favorite in this region.
Why they could lose: It will probably take some level of implosion for Kansas to lose early, but don't think it can't happen. There have been times KU has struggled offensively this year (Memphis, Cornell, Tennessee, Oklahoma State) and when that happens, Sherron Collins sometimes tries to do everything and problems occur. It's not a trend for KU to struggle offensively, but it can happen.
Who they could lose to: I don't see KU losing before the Elite Eight (Maryland's too small, Michigan State's not good enough) but at that point there are a whole host of teams that could give KU problems, including Ohio State, Georgetown, Tennessee, and even Oklahoma State or Georgia Tech. The bottom half of the Midwest is probably the strongest 8 team section in the tournament.
Sleeper: Georgia Tech. I know they have turnover problems, but when you have not one but two post players that can create their own shot in Lawal and Favors, you're a dangerous team. Especially when the teams you're trying to upset (Oklahoma State, Ohio State) lack size.
Who will win: Kansas. They're too good to not pick. But don't be surprised if red-hot teams like Georgetown or Ohio State end up taking them down. Especially keep an eye on Ohio State... anytime you have the best player in college basketball, you're a threat to win the game.
PICKS:
1st Round
Kansas over Lehigh
UNLV over Northern Iowa (I'll take UNI over any Valley team... otherwise, they're not dynamic enough for my liking)
Michigan State over New Mexico State
Maryland over Houston
Tennessee over San Diego State (The Vols are one of those teams that could lose in the first round or take the entire region)
Georgetown over Ohio (A couple of weeks ago I would've picked against G-Town in the first round against almost anyone. Then Chris Wright decided he was gonna be a beast)
Georgia Tech over Oklahoma State (Tough to pick against he best 2 guard in the land, but I believe in the Yellow Jackets that much)
Ohio State over UC Santa Barbera
2nd Round
Kansas over UNLV
Maryland over Michigan State (I remember seeing a blog post about three weeks ago where some guy compared Michigan State's resume to Maryland's and asked why Michigan State was a top 15 team and Maryland wasn't ranked. He was exactly right)
Georgetown over Tennessee (Hopefully the Hoyas don't go all last year on me like they have at times this season)
Ohio State over Georgia Tech (Sooo tempting to pick the upset... but the Buckeyes have been playing too well right now. Watch out though if GT attacks the small OSU frontline and gets a thin Buckeye team into foul trouble early)
Regional Semis
Kansas over Maryland (The Terps have no one to deal with Marcus Morris, much less Aldrich. Vazquez will do his thing, but Jayhawks are just too deep and talented)
Ohio State over Georgetown (The Buckeyes will sit back in that zone, deny passes to Monroe and force Wright and Freeman to beat them from the outside. Meanwhile, Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country at turning defense into offense, bad news for a team that has been turnover prone at many points this year)
Regional Finals
Kansas over Ohio State (Similar reasons... too much size, too much depth for OSU to handle; however, Turner is the wild card. He can drop 40 on anyone in this tournament and win the game for his team. Stay tuned)
Winner: KANSAS JAYHAWKS
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