Bubble Watch - March 12th

Judgment day for bubble teams. Here's a look at the current picture:

Locks:
Xavier
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake
Florida St
Kansas
OU
Missouri
Texas
UConn
Louisville
Pitt
Marquette
Villanova
Syracuse
West Virginia (given the current outlook of the bubble, they've done more than enough)
Michigan St.
Illinois
Purdue
Ohio St
Washington
Arizona St.
Cal
UCLA
LSU
Tennessee (I can't think of a scenario where the Vols wouldn't get in so... good enough for me)
Utah
BYU
Butler

In with a win today:
Providence
BC
Michigan
Penn State
Arizona
Oklahoma St.
Dayton

More work left to do (What they have to do to get in):
Rhode Island (A-10 final)
VT (ACC semis)
Maryland (ACC semis)
Miami (ACC final? Potentially could get in with a quarterfinal win, but need the semifinal win just to be safe)
Wisconsin (Big Ten semis)
Minnesota (Big Ten semis)
Northwestern (Big Ten semis)
New Mexico (Mountain West final... only because I'd like to see a good road/neutral win. They could potentially get in with a close loss to Utah, but they're playing with the committee if that happens.)
San Diego St (Mountain West final... quarterfinal win might be enough, but might not)
UNLV (Mountain West final... out of the three MWC teams, they could survive a semifinal loss the most.)
South Carolina (SEC final... a quarterfinal win may be good enough but they need all the RPI Top 50 wins they can get)
Florida (SEC final... same as above)

Teams whose season is over and are still on the bubble:
Texas A&M
St. Mary's
Creighton
Davidson

Teams that are on the bubble if they don't win their conference tournament:
Utah St.

So here's the possible outcomes. There are 30 locks representing 8 conferences (the Horizon doesn't count because their auto bid has already been handed out), so 22 at-large spots are filled assuming nobody from outside that group wins their conference tournament (a safe assumption at the moment...we'll re-evaluate should that time come). In addition, I think 7 teams can get in with wins today, leaving only 5 spots for the remaining teams. At the moment, here's the order I think the bubble teams stand in:

Texas A&M
St. Mary's
UNLV
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
San Diego St.
South Carolina
New Mexico
Minnesota
Maryland
Northwestern
Florida
Creighton
Miami
Davidson
Rhode Island

Okay, so that is a lot of options. First, let's take a look at the teams that will be IN if they win today:

Providence v. Louisville, 12 PM

Why will they be in with a win today: Beating the Big East champ will do that for you.

If they don't win: Probably in. Villanova was in a similar situation a year ago and a first round win and quarterfinal exit in the Big East tourney was good enough. Plus, the way the bubble's shaping out, there aren't too many good fringe candidates and the Friars have been playing as well as most of them recently.

Boston College v. Virginia, 9 PM

Why: Two big conference wins (UNC and Duke) and good overall finish in conference should be enough for the committee to look past some really bad losses.

If they don't win: Things get dicey, because that's now three excuses the committee has to leave them out (Harvard, @ NC State are the other two). My gut says they'd still be okay, but they probably shouldn't risk it. Just take care of business tonight.

Michigan v. Iowa, 2:30 PM

Why: Big out of conference wins and good conference finish will be enough to get them in barring a major collapse.

If they don't win: Also dicey... that would be two losses to Iowa and the Wolverines really haven't done a ton to separate themselves in conference play. Not that that's a bad thing (mediocre in the Big Ten this year = tournament bid) but it is a bad thing if they've got some baggage for the committee to look at.

Penn State v. Indiana, 5 PM

Why: Wins against the top three teams in the conference and an overall record of .500 vs. the RPI Top 50 will be plenty.

If they don't win: I still think their resume is good enough, but a loss to IU? That would look AWFUL. That, plus the loss to Iowa, doesn't leave a good taste in the committee's mouth. And unlike others, they did all their work in conference, which may lead some to question the validity of the Big Ten and therefore somewhat "nullify" some of their conference wins. Okay, that's a stretch, but I feel like Penn State's one of those teams people will make reasons to leave out. And if you lose to IU, you really only have yourself to blame.

Arizona v. Arizona St., 3 PM

Why: Win against a ranked team will add to their list of good wins and should push them over the edge.

If they don't win: The Wildcats have been very up and down this year, and while they have plenty of good wins, the losses are really starting to pile up. 13 losses is a lot for any bubble team to have. They might be a victim of someone like Utah St. losing their conference tourney or a borderline tournament team making a power conference tournament push.

Oklahoma St. v. Oklahoma, 7 PM

Why: Beat a top 10 team? Yea, that should be enough.

If they don't win: Probably still good. No shame in losing to OU this year, and they still have very good computer numbers and good wins now to back them up. I can't see the Cowboys getting turned down at this point (although they're not a lock just yet).

Dayton v. Richmond, 9 PM

Why: The win won't do much, but the Flyers just need to avoid a major collapse.

If they don't win: They'd be begging the committee to leave them out with all the awful conference losses, but I still think they'd be okay. Wins against Marquette, Xavier, and Auburn (actually starting to look like a decent win) would stack up well vs. the rest of the bubble. But it would be a lot closer than the Flyers would like.

So what does all this mean? Not much. In 4 of these games, teams are favorites and should get in with a win. The other 3 include bubble teams that are underdogs. But the bubble is still very fluid and there's still time for teams to make tournament cases. And, unlike some other sports, if you keep winning, no committee can decide your fate. One of the many reasons college basketball is awesome.

Conference Tournament Central

Big East:
March 10-14

First Round: Tues, March 10
9 - Cincinnati
16 - DePaul

12 - Georgetown
13 - St. John's

10 - Notre Dame
15 - Rutgers

11 - Seton Hall
14 - South Florida

2nd Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Providence
Cincy/DePaul

5 - Marquette
G-Town/St. John's

7 - West Virginia
ND/Rutgers

6 - Syracuse
Seton Hall/USF

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Louisville
Providence/Cincy/DePaul

4 - Villanova
Marquette/G-Town/St. John's

2 - Pittsburgh
WVU/ND/Rutgers

3 - UConn
Syracuse/Seton Hall/USF

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: Pitt, obviously. They're my overall #1 and my current pick to win it all.
Darkhorse: Syracuse. They're good enough to beat anyone in this conference. If they manage to bring it on every night, they can potentially win this thing. Now, beating UConn, Louisville, and Pitt three days in a row is a tall order for any team in the nation... I'm guessing we're not going to see a major upset here. One of the top three will win it.

ACC:
March 12-15

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
8 - Virginia Tech
9 - Miami

5 - Clemson
12 - Georgia Tech

7 - Maryland
10 - NC State

6 - Boston College
11 - Virginia

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
1 - North Carolina
VT/Miami

4 - Florida State
Clemson/GT

2 - Wake Forest
Maryland/NC State

3- Duke
BC/Virginia

Semifinals: Sat, March 14th
Finals: Sun, March 15th

Favorite: UNC. Most talented team in the conference and possibly in the nation, I feel like they've flown under the radar somewhat due to all the attention Pitt/UConn/Louisville have gotten recently and their inability to secure the #1 ranking (which they might tomorrow). But this team is still very, very dangerous, especially when they want to play D.
Darkhorse: Clemson. We've already seen what this team can do against Duke... when you can full-court press and create turnovers, and you've got Trevor Booker, you can compete with anyone in the conference. Also look out for BC, VT, and Maryland, all of whom have picked up big wins in the regular season and all could use a good win or two to lock up their tournament status.

Big Ten:
March 12-15

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
8 - Minnesota
9 - Northwestern

7 - Michigan
10 - Iowa

6 - Penn State
11 - Iowa

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
1 - Michigan State
Minnesota/Northwestern

4 - Wisconsin
5 - Ohio State

2 - Illinois
Michigan/Iowa

3 - Purdue
Penn State/Iowa

Semifinals: Sat, March 14th
Finals: Sun, March 15th

Favorite: Michigan State. They've been the most consistent team in the conference by far, they're an excellent rebounding team, they're athletic and agressive on defense... they've been sluggish at times this season but so has everyone in the conference. They're the best this year.
Darkhorse: Everyone. Seriously. Eight teams could end up winning this thing. And a ninth, Northwestern, is capable of beating pretty much anyone. I wouldn't be surprised to see some low seeds advancing to the semis and finals. This conference has been pretty even all season long and I don't expect the tournament to be any different.

Pac-10
March 11-14

First Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Oregon State
9 - Stanford

7 - Washington State
10 - Oregon

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Washington
OSU/Stanford

4 - Arizona State
5 - Arizona

2 - UCLA
WSU/Oregon

3 - Cal
4 - USC

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: Washington. I could go in a number of directions here, as both Arizona State and UCLA are potential choices here. However, I'll go with the conference winner and most consistent team in Pac-10 play this season.
Darkhorse: If Arizona State counts at the 4 seed, I'll go with them. If not, I'll take the team that they play... Arizona. The Wildcats are blessed with potential NBA lottery picks at several positions and are desperate for wins. They could run off a few wins or so and take this thing.

Big 12:
March 11-14

First Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Nebraska
9 - Baylor

5 - Texas
12 - Colorado

7 - Oklahoma State
10 - Iowa State

6 - Texas A&M
11 - Texas Tech

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Kansas
Nebraska/Baylor

4 - Kansas State
Texas/Colorado

2 - Oklahoma
OSU/ISU

3 - Missouri
Texas A&M/Texas Tech

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: OU. Still the best team in the conference when Griffin is healthy.
Darkhorse: Missouri doesn't count as a darkhorse anymore, so I'll take Texas A&M. They've been playing well recently, beating some good teams (Texas, Missouri) and playing with the urgency a bubble team should be playing with.

SEC:
March 12th-15th

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
W5 - Ole Miss
E4 - Kentucky

E6 - Georgia
W3 - Mississippi St.

E5 - Vanderbilt
W4 - Alabama

W6 - Arkansas
E3 - Florida

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
W1 - LSU
Ole Miss/Kentucky

E2 - South Carolina
Georgia/Miss St.

E1 - Tennessee
Vanderbilt/Alabama

W2 - Auburn
Arkansas/Florida

Favorite: LSU. They've been the best of this incredibly mediocre conference.
Darkhorse: Just like the Big Ten, anyone could win this thing, but since I'm not going to use that as a cop-out answer again, I'll pick Kentucky. Because anytime you have a guy like Jodie Meeks that can score 40 on anyone, you have to be a somewhat dangerous team.

Other conferences:
Atlantic 10: March 11-14
Xavier is the favorite again after winning their 3rd conference title in a row, but look out for Dayton, who beat them earlier this year, and Rhode Island, who is in desperation mode after losing to UMass on Saturday.

Mountain West: March 11-14
One of the few conferences where, after the regular season, we still don't know a lot about the overall bubble outlook. Utah is in for sure, and BYU will probably get in due to being the regular season conference champ, but what will we do with UNLV? The tournament's on their floor, so they have the best chance to win, but if they don't, their resume is very, very average. And what about San Diego State? These two play each other again in the 4/5 matchup, so one team's staying home for sure after Thursday.

Other small conference news:
-Northern Iowa won the MVC tournament and the auto bid, beating Illinois State 60-57 in OT. This team could give some major conference team fits in their first round matchup with their slow, deliberate style of play.
-Siena survived their semifinal matchup and now face Niagara on Monday for the MAAC conference champ. Does Siena get in if they lose a close one? They might be difficult to turn down given the weakness of the bubble this year.
-Speaking of small conference bubble teams, Davidson was ousted from the Southern conference tournament in the semis, losing to College of Charleston again. The Wildcats have a win over West Virginia, which, to be honest, is better than some bubble teams so far (I'm looking at you, South Carolina). And the allure of Stephen Curry might be enough to make the committee include Davidson. Either way, it's going to be a VERY long week for the Wildcats.
-Gonzaga pounded Santa Clara in their semifinal game and now wait the winner of the St. Mary's/Portland game for the WCC championshi on Monday.
-And it's 1 vs. 2 on Monday for the Colonial championship... VCU vs. George Mason. Should be a very entertaining game to watch, and the winner's going to be a tough out in the tournament.