Bubble Watch - March 12th

Judgment day for bubble teams. Here's a look at the current picture:

Locks:
Xavier
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake
Florida St
Kansas
OU
Missouri
Texas
UConn
Louisville
Pitt
Marquette
Villanova
Syracuse
West Virginia (given the current outlook of the bubble, they've done more than enough)
Michigan St.
Illinois
Purdue
Ohio St
Washington
Arizona St.
Cal
UCLA
LSU
Tennessee (I can't think of a scenario where the Vols wouldn't get in so... good enough for me)
Utah
BYU
Butler

In with a win today:
Providence
BC
Michigan
Penn State
Arizona
Oklahoma St.
Dayton

More work left to do (What they have to do to get in):
Rhode Island (A-10 final)
VT (ACC semis)
Maryland (ACC semis)
Miami (ACC final? Potentially could get in with a quarterfinal win, but need the semifinal win just to be safe)
Wisconsin (Big Ten semis)
Minnesota (Big Ten semis)
Northwestern (Big Ten semis)
New Mexico (Mountain West final... only because I'd like to see a good road/neutral win. They could potentially get in with a close loss to Utah, but they're playing with the committee if that happens.)
San Diego St (Mountain West final... quarterfinal win might be enough, but might not)
UNLV (Mountain West final... out of the three MWC teams, they could survive a semifinal loss the most.)
South Carolina (SEC final... a quarterfinal win may be good enough but they need all the RPI Top 50 wins they can get)
Florida (SEC final... same as above)

Teams whose season is over and are still on the bubble:
Texas A&M
St. Mary's
Creighton
Davidson

Teams that are on the bubble if they don't win their conference tournament:
Utah St.

So here's the possible outcomes. There are 30 locks representing 8 conferences (the Horizon doesn't count because their auto bid has already been handed out), so 22 at-large spots are filled assuming nobody from outside that group wins their conference tournament (a safe assumption at the moment...we'll re-evaluate should that time come). In addition, I think 7 teams can get in with wins today, leaving only 5 spots for the remaining teams. At the moment, here's the order I think the bubble teams stand in:

Texas A&M
St. Mary's
UNLV
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
San Diego St.
South Carolina
New Mexico
Minnesota
Maryland
Northwestern
Florida
Creighton
Miami
Davidson
Rhode Island

Okay, so that is a lot of options. First, let's take a look at the teams that will be IN if they win today:

Providence v. Louisville, 12 PM

Why will they be in with a win today: Beating the Big East champ will do that for you.

If they don't win: Probably in. Villanova was in a similar situation a year ago and a first round win and quarterfinal exit in the Big East tourney was good enough. Plus, the way the bubble's shaping out, there aren't too many good fringe candidates and the Friars have been playing as well as most of them recently.

Boston College v. Virginia, 9 PM

Why: Two big conference wins (UNC and Duke) and good overall finish in conference should be enough for the committee to look past some really bad losses.

If they don't win: Things get dicey, because that's now three excuses the committee has to leave them out (Harvard, @ NC State are the other two). My gut says they'd still be okay, but they probably shouldn't risk it. Just take care of business tonight.

Michigan v. Iowa, 2:30 PM

Why: Big out of conference wins and good conference finish will be enough to get them in barring a major collapse.

If they don't win: Also dicey... that would be two losses to Iowa and the Wolverines really haven't done a ton to separate themselves in conference play. Not that that's a bad thing (mediocre in the Big Ten this year = tournament bid) but it is a bad thing if they've got some baggage for the committee to look at.

Penn State v. Indiana, 5 PM

Why: Wins against the top three teams in the conference and an overall record of .500 vs. the RPI Top 50 will be plenty.

If they don't win: I still think their resume is good enough, but a loss to IU? That would look AWFUL. That, plus the loss to Iowa, doesn't leave a good taste in the committee's mouth. And unlike others, they did all their work in conference, which may lead some to question the validity of the Big Ten and therefore somewhat "nullify" some of their conference wins. Okay, that's a stretch, but I feel like Penn State's one of those teams people will make reasons to leave out. And if you lose to IU, you really only have yourself to blame.

Arizona v. Arizona St., 3 PM

Why: Win against a ranked team will add to their list of good wins and should push them over the edge.

If they don't win: The Wildcats have been very up and down this year, and while they have plenty of good wins, the losses are really starting to pile up. 13 losses is a lot for any bubble team to have. They might be a victim of someone like Utah St. losing their conference tourney or a borderline tournament team making a power conference tournament push.

Oklahoma St. v. Oklahoma, 7 PM

Why: Beat a top 10 team? Yea, that should be enough.

If they don't win: Probably still good. No shame in losing to OU this year, and they still have very good computer numbers and good wins now to back them up. I can't see the Cowboys getting turned down at this point (although they're not a lock just yet).

Dayton v. Richmond, 9 PM

Why: The win won't do much, but the Flyers just need to avoid a major collapse.

If they don't win: They'd be begging the committee to leave them out with all the awful conference losses, but I still think they'd be okay. Wins against Marquette, Xavier, and Auburn (actually starting to look like a decent win) would stack up well vs. the rest of the bubble. But it would be a lot closer than the Flyers would like.

So what does all this mean? Not much. In 4 of these games, teams are favorites and should get in with a win. The other 3 include bubble teams that are underdogs. But the bubble is still very fluid and there's still time for teams to make tournament cases. And, unlike some other sports, if you keep winning, no committee can decide your fate. One of the many reasons college basketball is awesome.