Yea... this game was pretty bad. It's upsetting to get that excited for a sports game and have it end so poorly. It's even worse when the game starts just as bad and your team never makes a run or makes you feel like they're going to make a run. It's even worse when you saw your team play earlier in the year and you saw things that you thought could definitely bite you in the behind in the future but you try and reason with yourself that you do other things well enough that it won't make a difference, and then those things are the very things that kill you. That was my experience on Tuesday. Simply put, it sucked. But despite that, there is hope. Here's why:
Duke is a top 5 team. Easily. The Paint Crew officers put together a scouting report which basically said "This is the same Duke team that is overrated by ESPN every year, and that's pretty much the case this year." I didn't really believe them when they put it out, and I don't think anyone believes that now. This team might have the best duo of starting wings in the country with Singler and Henderson. Nolan Smith is extremely fast with the ball and can hit shots. Scheyer is EXTREMELY underrated and, if he could consistenly make the three, could easily put up 20 on almost anyone in the country. Greg Paulus is a great veteran prescence off the bench. But you know what most impressed me about this team? They never panicked. At all. Not for one possession. They always played within their game, within their speed, they were never rushed or hurried to the point of turning it over. Anytime we got any momentum, Coach K called a timeout and calmed his team down. But they didn't really need it. One of the many reasons we lost that game: they played like they knew they were going to win that game the entire time. And we were scared to death.
We did not come ready to play, physically or mentally. Physically I knew we'd be slightly overmatched, but not this bad. I knew we'd have some problems stopping the drive to the hoop. I saw it in the Oklahoma game. But I thought our help defense would be good enough. Wrong again. It doesn't help when Duke shoots lights out from three. But seriously, we gave them plenty of open shots to do it. And even when they started 40 feet away from the basket, they'd still manage to get to the rim. Poor strategy? Yea, maybe we should've backed off a little. Undermanned a bit defensively? Most definitely. Offensively was even worse. Our movement away from the ball was horrible, and, having run a motion offense before, if you don't make good cuts, your offense won't work. Period. We never did that. That's why we never got open shots. Even if we hadn't had a poor game shooting I still think we'd have been hard-pressed to reach 40% from the field. We just simply were not working for open shots.
Even if this was a problem, teams face that issue all the time. The big reason we looked so bad was because we were defeated from the start. We came in way too amped up and missed some easy layups we shouldn't have missed. We looked rattled once we got down early and never made a serious run. Anytime we'd get any sort of positive momentum, we'd throw the ball away or commit a silly foul. Nobody took charge offensively until it was way too late. Overall, I don't think we truly believed we could win that game. I knew we had some poor starts earlier this year and I really didn't want to fall into that again, but we did.
So that turned out horribly. Here's the good news: we're still the best team in the Big 10. If you want to argue with me as to why Michigan St.'s better, be my guest, because I simply don't see it at this point. We will learn from this game, we will recover, and we will be better because of it. Tuesday taught me we're not at Duke's level yet, nor may we ever be. But there's no Duke in the Big 10. And all it takes is getting hot for six games in late March/early April. Who knows what can happen in the tournament. I fully believe we can beat all but the very best teams on a consistent basis... and that should be good enough to get us relatively deep in the tournament. And then maybe we can pull an upset or two.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
The state of ACC and Big Ten college basketball
So since I've been away for a few days, rather than try to catch up on daily recaps I decided to do an overall look at the big picture for both of these conferences. If you didn't know already, the ACC won 6-5. So here we go:
ACC
North Carolina - Smoked Michigan St. at Ford Field. Much has been said already about this team but if you didn't know... this team is stacked. They could probably put up 100 on all but the very best of teams... and by very best I mean all but UConn, Gonzaga, and maybe some teams that slow the pace of the game down way too much (like Texas and UCLA). This is the #1 team in the nation by far and I don't see any reason they can't run the table. Yes, that means go undefeated. I think they'll lose at some point but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they didn't.
Duke - I'll talk more about them here:
http://chitownballa.blogspot.com/2008/12/purdue-vs-duke-thoughts.html
As far as the ACC season goes, I think this team is VERY vulnerable in the post and would get eaten alive inside by Hansbrough and UNC. I also think Wake Forest would give them problems in the post as well. Everyone else in this conference, their backcourt and wings will be too much to handle.
Wake Forest - Trounced IU, which was no surprise. This is a very talented, very athletic team who I believe could mature into a top 5 team should they continue to develop. At the moment, I'll go with 3rd best in the ACC.
Miami (FL) - Losing McClinton made all the difference in the Ohio St. game. I would be more concerned with this team if this wasn't a road game, and if this wasn't a decent Ohio St. team, and if they hadn't lost McClinton due to a flagrant foul. All those things considered, I'll move that loss from the "Should have won" category to the "Toss up game where home court advantage made the difference" category. It is unsettling, though, that outside of McClinton and Hurdle the U really struggled against Ohio St.'s full court pressure, and that their defense looked as bad as it did in the 2nd half. Both of those will REALLY hurt Miami against Duke, UNC, and Wake and is the main reason they're 4th right now. But they should still make the tourney with relative ease.
This is where things get dicey. I said before if the ACC beats up on itself again and no 5th team emerges, they're going to only end up with 4 bids again. Will it happen this year? Early indications say... maybe.
Virginia Tech - That's the 2nd heartbreaking loss of the year for a school that's made a habit of heartbreaking losses over the past few years. Unfortunately for the Hokies, close loss does not equal win, and VT failed on every shot they had to get a good non-conference win. Seriously... they'll probably enter conference play with their best out of conference win being at Georgia. That's not going to get you in the tournament. To make matters worse... they only get one shot at UNC, Miami, and Wake Forest. You know what this means? Virginia Tech could be looking at as many as 11 ACC wins and a 21-7 record entering the tournament and STILL not have a quality win. Sounds a lot like last year
Clemson - Could the Tigers make a tournament run? They picked up a solid... not great, solid... win @ Illinois and are currently 8-0. This team had a fair amount of players return from last year's good, albiet overrated, team, but they've flown under the radar so far this season. After a couple more cupcake non-conference games this team will likely be 11-0 heading into Miami on December 21st. Other important games... January 17th Wake Forest comes to town, February 4th Duke comes to town, and February 25th they get a home game vs. Virginia Tech for which could make or break either team. Bottom line... the Tigers will pile a lot of wins but it's the quality ones that matter. Will they get enough of those?
Maryland - Took a ginormous step forward beating Michigan St. on a neutral floor, then took a ginormous step backward by getting killed by Georgetown in the same tournament, then took a mini-step forward beating Michigan at home. Michigan's not likely a tournament team, however, and one win in early November can only carry you so far. Vazquez is having a great season and is a difficult matchup at 6'6", but the rest of the team is nothing special. Their major tests will be January 31st at home vs. Miami and Valentine's Day at home vs. VT, and February 17th @ Clemson. Win all those swing games and the Terps are probably looking at 10 ACC wins, which that and the Michigan St. win could very well be enough to get in.
Florida State - Impressive win over Cal negated by not so impressive loss at Northwestern. They also had a win over Cincinnati earlier, which isn't great but at least it's not a cupcake team. Good chance to redeem themselves Sunday when they get Florida at home. Win that one and I will consider bumping them up a spot. Key conference games include home vs. Maryland on January 17th, home vs. Miami on February 18th, and home vs. Clemson on February 28th. They close their season with VT as well.
Boston College - The poor man's Maryland. Their preseason tournament win was less impressive (UAB), their ACC/Big 10 challenge win was less impressive (Iowa, at home, because a guy missed free throws), but unlike Maryland they have some decent non-conference games left, including @ UMass and home vs. Providence. If they don't win both of those I don't really see this team making a tournament run, as neither of those teams look like tournament teams at this point.
Georgia Tech - Lost what turned out to be a very good game vs. Penn St. This is a young team with some good players (like Gani Lawal) but this year they will likely take their lumps in the ACC.
Virginia - Three straight losses, two of them to teams that likely won't make the tournament (unless Liberty wins their conference which is entirely possible), including Minnesota in the challenge. It's not happening this year.
North Carolina State - Get back to me when you actually play someone legit.
OUTLOOK: Four teams are locks for the tournament. From what I've seen, I think it's highly unlikely the ACC doesn't get at least 1 more in unless absolutely nobody establishes themselves in conference (which I suppose is entirely possible). Virginia Tech, Clemson, Maryland, and even Florida State all have the talent to pick up some good conference wins, and the majority of those teams now have non-conference wins to fall back on a bit. At this point I think it's actually more probable that six make it in instead of four, but I'll settle for the middle and go with FIVE teams in the tournament. The 5th team? I have no idea, but I'll take Clemson based on the strength of their challenge win and the team outlook.
Purdue - See more here:
http://chitownballa.blogspot.com/2008/12/purdue-vs-duke-thoughts.html
This game was a tragedy but not a backbreaker by any means. Nobody in the Big 10 is going to have that kind of athletic ability across the board (except maybe Michigan State, and they have troubles of their own right now). At the moment they're still the Big 10 favorites in my mind.
Michigan State - Loss to UNC? Not particularly disturbing, since I kind of expected this. Loss to Maryland? Uh oh... This team is uber-talented but they haven't seemed to figure it out yet. Morgan looked better in the UNC game but the Spartans aren't going to win a lot of games with him taking only 4 shots like he did against Maryland. Hopefully a good game against the Tar Heels will get him back on track. Missing Suton hurts, but he's not the whole answer. The Spartans need to stop turning the ball over and start taking better shots if they're going to want to fix this offense for Big 10 play.
Wisconsin - They get 3rd in the Big 10 for the time being. This team lost a few key seniors from last year but there was no doubt in my mind this would still be a competitive team. They're very well coached, they're experienced on the perimeter, and they're one of the few teams who stick to their game plan for 40 minutes whether they're playing UConn or Cal State Fullerton. And it worked for a while against the #2 team in the nation, so why not? This team is somewhat undersized and not as talented or athletic as the two teams above them (or the one below) but the Badgers will find a way to stay competitive for a Big 10 title.
Ohio St. - I guess I have to start worrying about this team now, huh? They beat a Jack McClinton-less Hurricanes squad on the road to pick up a very, very good non-conference win. I didn't think this team was going to have any real struggle to make the tournament but especially with the Miami win, the pressure's off somewhat in Big 10 play. This is a very young team, as no seniors get any real playing time. Sophomores Evan Turner and Jon Diebler lead the way offensively, and David Lighty gives the team some veteran presence underneath. Defensively, their full court pressure gave the U all kinds of headaches and forced 18 turnovers. And this is with the major stars of this incoming freshman class - B. J. Mullins, William Buford, Anthony Crater - all struggling. Once these guys come around, this Buckeye team could be very, very dangerous.
Illinois - The Big 10 has a few options for a possible 5th team in the tournament. These best of those options is the Illini, who suffered a heartbreaking loss in the last possession vs. Clemson. That was a crucial loss that could have huge implications when it comes to ranking teams in March. They do have a good non-conference win at Vanderbilt, which is one of the more difficult places to win in college basketball. This team has a good mix of youngsters (Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis) and vets (Trent Meacham, Chester Frazier) and they play with a chip on their shoulder. The question is... will that Clemson loss come back to hurt them? They get shots at home vs. Ohio St. and Wisconsin on back-to-back games in mid-January, and Michigan St. comes to town in March.
Michigan - Another team that may be looking to one win to carry them to a tournament bid. The win over UCLA at a neutral court was very good, but unfortunately they couldn't follow it up against Duke or @ Maryland. Neither are bad losses, but especially the Maryland one is one that a tournament team should probably win. They get another shot at Duke on Saturday and then some cupcake games before conference play. If DeShawn Sims can step up in conference play like he has so far this year, Michigan has a chance to finish as high as 4th or 5th in the Big 10, and if they get some solid wins in conference, they might just sneak in the NCAAs.
Minnesota - Well, they're undefeated, but their best win so far is home vs. Virginia. But still, they're undefeated, and they won't be seriously challenged until December 20th vs. Louisville. They're probably on the outside looking in at the moment but if they can pick up wins on January 29th vs. Illinois, February 4th vs. Michigan St., or March 3rd vs. Wisconsin, they will be in the running.
Penn St. - Could the Nittany Lions make a Big 10 run? Taylor Battle is a very, very good player, and Stanley Pringle and Jamelle Cornley have been good secondary options offensively. There's nothing from their resume to suggest they can't be compeititive. So to answer the question... it's unlikely they'll make a serious tournament run, but they have the ability to steal a game or two from the tournament hopefuls of the conference.
Northwestern - Well... they beat Florida State... and they only lost @ Butler by four... maybe? Probably not. They're not talented enough t beat teams like Illinois and Michigan on a consistent basis, but like Penn St., they could steal a game or two.
Iowa - Got pounded by West Virginia and beat Kansas State by two, and lost to Boston College, which puts them solidly on the bubble... of the NIT.
Indiana - They're awful. Let's just leave it at that.
OUTLOOK: Four bids are likely, with Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State solidly in at the moment. Could a 5th team get in? Illinois could make a run, as could Michigan, but both are probably on the outside looking in right now. Minnesota hasn't been challenged yet. It depends a lot on the national picture, but if I had to guess right now, I'd say the Big 10 will probably just miss out on a 5th and get FOUR teams in the tournament.
ACC
North Carolina - Smoked Michigan St. at Ford Field. Much has been said already about this team but if you didn't know... this team is stacked. They could probably put up 100 on all but the very best of teams... and by very best I mean all but UConn, Gonzaga, and maybe some teams that slow the pace of the game down way too much (like Texas and UCLA). This is the #1 team in the nation by far and I don't see any reason they can't run the table. Yes, that means go undefeated. I think they'll lose at some point but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they didn't.
Duke - I'll talk more about them here:
http://chitownballa.blogspot.com/2008/12/purdue-vs-duke-thoughts.html
As far as the ACC season goes, I think this team is VERY vulnerable in the post and would get eaten alive inside by Hansbrough and UNC. I also think Wake Forest would give them problems in the post as well. Everyone else in this conference, their backcourt and wings will be too much to handle.
Wake Forest - Trounced IU, which was no surprise. This is a very talented, very athletic team who I believe could mature into a top 5 team should they continue to develop. At the moment, I'll go with 3rd best in the ACC.
Miami (FL) - Losing McClinton made all the difference in the Ohio St. game. I would be more concerned with this team if this wasn't a road game, and if this wasn't a decent Ohio St. team, and if they hadn't lost McClinton due to a flagrant foul. All those things considered, I'll move that loss from the "Should have won" category to the "Toss up game where home court advantage made the difference" category. It is unsettling, though, that outside of McClinton and Hurdle the U really struggled against Ohio St.'s full court pressure, and that their defense looked as bad as it did in the 2nd half. Both of those will REALLY hurt Miami against Duke, UNC, and Wake and is the main reason they're 4th right now. But they should still make the tourney with relative ease.
This is where things get dicey. I said before if the ACC beats up on itself again and no 5th team emerges, they're going to only end up with 4 bids again. Will it happen this year? Early indications say... maybe.
Virginia Tech - That's the 2nd heartbreaking loss of the year for a school that's made a habit of heartbreaking losses over the past few years. Unfortunately for the Hokies, close loss does not equal win, and VT failed on every shot they had to get a good non-conference win. Seriously... they'll probably enter conference play with their best out of conference win being at Georgia. That's not going to get you in the tournament. To make matters worse... they only get one shot at UNC, Miami, and Wake Forest. You know what this means? Virginia Tech could be looking at as many as 11 ACC wins and a 21-7 record entering the tournament and STILL not have a quality win. Sounds a lot like last year
Clemson - Could the Tigers make a tournament run? They picked up a solid... not great, solid... win @ Illinois and are currently 8-0. This team had a fair amount of players return from last year's good, albiet overrated, team, but they've flown under the radar so far this season. After a couple more cupcake non-conference games this team will likely be 11-0 heading into Miami on December 21st. Other important games... January 17th Wake Forest comes to town, February 4th Duke comes to town, and February 25th they get a home game vs. Virginia Tech for which could make or break either team. Bottom line... the Tigers will pile a lot of wins but it's the quality ones that matter. Will they get enough of those?
Maryland - Took a ginormous step forward beating Michigan St. on a neutral floor, then took a ginormous step backward by getting killed by Georgetown in the same tournament, then took a mini-step forward beating Michigan at home. Michigan's not likely a tournament team, however, and one win in early November can only carry you so far. Vazquez is having a great season and is a difficult matchup at 6'6", but the rest of the team is nothing special. Their major tests will be January 31st at home vs. Miami and Valentine's Day at home vs. VT, and February 17th @ Clemson. Win all those swing games and the Terps are probably looking at 10 ACC wins, which that and the Michigan St. win could very well be enough to get in.
Florida State - Impressive win over Cal negated by not so impressive loss at Northwestern. They also had a win over Cincinnati earlier, which isn't great but at least it's not a cupcake team. Good chance to redeem themselves Sunday when they get Florida at home. Win that one and I will consider bumping them up a spot. Key conference games include home vs. Maryland on January 17th, home vs. Miami on February 18th, and home vs. Clemson on February 28th. They close their season with VT as well.
Boston College - The poor man's Maryland. Their preseason tournament win was less impressive (UAB), their ACC/Big 10 challenge win was less impressive (Iowa, at home, because a guy missed free throws), but unlike Maryland they have some decent non-conference games left, including @ UMass and home vs. Providence. If they don't win both of those I don't really see this team making a tournament run, as neither of those teams look like tournament teams at this point.
Georgia Tech - Lost what turned out to be a very good game vs. Penn St. This is a young team with some good players (like Gani Lawal) but this year they will likely take their lumps in the ACC.
Virginia - Three straight losses, two of them to teams that likely won't make the tournament (unless Liberty wins their conference which is entirely possible), including Minnesota in the challenge. It's not happening this year.
North Carolina State - Get back to me when you actually play someone legit.
OUTLOOK: Four teams are locks for the tournament. From what I've seen, I think it's highly unlikely the ACC doesn't get at least 1 more in unless absolutely nobody establishes themselves in conference (which I suppose is entirely possible). Virginia Tech, Clemson, Maryland, and even Florida State all have the talent to pick up some good conference wins, and the majority of those teams now have non-conference wins to fall back on a bit. At this point I think it's actually more probable that six make it in instead of four, but I'll settle for the middle and go with FIVE teams in the tournament. The 5th team? I have no idea, but I'll take Clemson based on the strength of their challenge win and the team outlook.
Purdue - See more here:
http://chitownballa.blogspot.com/2008/12/purdue-vs-duke-thoughts.html
This game was a tragedy but not a backbreaker by any means. Nobody in the Big 10 is going to have that kind of athletic ability across the board (except maybe Michigan State, and they have troubles of their own right now). At the moment they're still the Big 10 favorites in my mind.
Michigan State - Loss to UNC? Not particularly disturbing, since I kind of expected this. Loss to Maryland? Uh oh... This team is uber-talented but they haven't seemed to figure it out yet. Morgan looked better in the UNC game but the Spartans aren't going to win a lot of games with him taking only 4 shots like he did against Maryland. Hopefully a good game against the Tar Heels will get him back on track. Missing Suton hurts, but he's not the whole answer. The Spartans need to stop turning the ball over and start taking better shots if they're going to want to fix this offense for Big 10 play.
Wisconsin - They get 3rd in the Big 10 for the time being. This team lost a few key seniors from last year but there was no doubt in my mind this would still be a competitive team. They're very well coached, they're experienced on the perimeter, and they're one of the few teams who stick to their game plan for 40 minutes whether they're playing UConn or Cal State Fullerton. And it worked for a while against the #2 team in the nation, so why not? This team is somewhat undersized and not as talented or athletic as the two teams above them (or the one below) but the Badgers will find a way to stay competitive for a Big 10 title.
Ohio St. - I guess I have to start worrying about this team now, huh? They beat a Jack McClinton-less Hurricanes squad on the road to pick up a very, very good non-conference win. I didn't think this team was going to have any real struggle to make the tournament but especially with the Miami win, the pressure's off somewhat in Big 10 play. This is a very young team, as no seniors get any real playing time. Sophomores Evan Turner and Jon Diebler lead the way offensively, and David Lighty gives the team some veteran presence underneath. Defensively, their full court pressure gave the U all kinds of headaches and forced 18 turnovers. And this is with the major stars of this incoming freshman class - B. J. Mullins, William Buford, Anthony Crater - all struggling. Once these guys come around, this Buckeye team could be very, very dangerous.
Illinois - The Big 10 has a few options for a possible 5th team in the tournament. These best of those options is the Illini, who suffered a heartbreaking loss in the last possession vs. Clemson. That was a crucial loss that could have huge implications when it comes to ranking teams in March. They do have a good non-conference win at Vanderbilt, which is one of the more difficult places to win in college basketball. This team has a good mix of youngsters (Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis) and vets (Trent Meacham, Chester Frazier) and they play with a chip on their shoulder. The question is... will that Clemson loss come back to hurt them? They get shots at home vs. Ohio St. and Wisconsin on back-to-back games in mid-January, and Michigan St. comes to town in March.
Michigan - Another team that may be looking to one win to carry them to a tournament bid. The win over UCLA at a neutral court was very good, but unfortunately they couldn't follow it up against Duke or @ Maryland. Neither are bad losses, but especially the Maryland one is one that a tournament team should probably win. They get another shot at Duke on Saturday and then some cupcake games before conference play. If DeShawn Sims can step up in conference play like he has so far this year, Michigan has a chance to finish as high as 4th or 5th in the Big 10, and if they get some solid wins in conference, they might just sneak in the NCAAs.
Minnesota - Well, they're undefeated, but their best win so far is home vs. Virginia. But still, they're undefeated, and they won't be seriously challenged until December 20th vs. Louisville. They're probably on the outside looking in at the moment but if they can pick up wins on January 29th vs. Illinois, February 4th vs. Michigan St., or March 3rd vs. Wisconsin, they will be in the running.
Penn St. - Could the Nittany Lions make a Big 10 run? Taylor Battle is a very, very good player, and Stanley Pringle and Jamelle Cornley have been good secondary options offensively. There's nothing from their resume to suggest they can't be compeititive. So to answer the question... it's unlikely they'll make a serious tournament run, but they have the ability to steal a game or two from the tournament hopefuls of the conference.
Northwestern - Well... they beat Florida State... and they only lost @ Butler by four... maybe? Probably not. They're not talented enough t beat teams like Illinois and Michigan on a consistent basis, but like Penn St., they could steal a game or two.
Iowa - Got pounded by West Virginia and beat Kansas State by two, and lost to Boston College, which puts them solidly on the bubble... of the NIT.
Indiana - They're awful. Let's just leave it at that.
OUTLOOK: Four bids are likely, with Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State solidly in at the moment. Could a 5th team get in? Illinois could make a run, as could Michigan, but both are probably on the outside looking in right now. Minnesota hasn't been challenged yet. It depends a lot on the national picture, but if I had to guess right now, I'd say the Big 10 will probably just miss out on a 5th and get FOUR teams in the tournament.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Purdue-Duke Preview
When I got Purdue's schedule, this was the game we all circled, and now it's finally here. You don't get shots at top 5 teams in your arena very often, especially a team with as much tradition and prestige as Duke. This would be a HUGE win for our program. With my innate bias in mind (which I will keep to a minimum) I'll give a preview of this game and what I think is going to happen.
Match-ups:
Backcourt -
Duke: Gerald Henderson, Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer
This backcourt, I think, is as good as any in the country. They can all score at the rim, they can all hit the three, and they all split shots, meaning you can't focus on one guy. This presents a lot of problems for most teams, as they don't have the guards defensively to match up to their athleticism and versatility. Henderson in particular can be difficult to deal with when he's on his game. These guys won't shoot a lot of threes but both Henderson and Smith are shooting over 38% from behind the line and we can't ignore that as a possible threat.
Purdue: E' Twaun Moore, Keaton Grant, Chris Kramer
I believe if there's a team that can match up defensively against this set of guards, this is it. All three are good defenders, especially Kramer, who was the Big Ten defensive player of the year last year. We play an aggressive defense on the perimeter, creating steals and turnovers. Of course, this leaves us vulnerable to the dribble drive as well. Offensively, Moore and Grant both consistently shoot over 40% from three and are not afraid to pull the trigger consistently from that range. Of the two, Moore is also adept at finishing at the rim, and particularly because Duke doesn't have a true low post presence, if he gets in the lane, he can get some baskets. Kramer is limited offensively but gets about one drive and lay-up a game.
Advantage: Duke, but they've been turnover prone this season so if we can creats some turnovers this will be a much more even matchup.
Frontcourt -
Duke: Kyle Singler is Duke's best option offensively. His combination of size and speed makes him a matchup nightmare. He can get into the lane and finish at the rim or from mid-range. He can get to the line, although he hasn't been doing that as much as of late. He can also knock down a three here and there. He also leads the team in rebounds and assists, so the Duke offense runs through him. After that, Duke gets a little thin. Brian Zoubek, the 7 footer, starts at center but he's limited on both ends of the floor.
Purdue: Robbie Hummel is probably Purdue's best player overall. He does a little bit of everything for the Boilers. He can create his own shot, he's a solid defender, he rebounds, he passes well and finds the open man. He has matured into a leader for this team, particularly on the offensive end. Like Singler, he's a matchup nightmare, but unlike Singler, his game is much more perimeter oriented. He shoots over 40% from three and is a threat to score anywhere on the court. Starting alongside Hummel is JaJuan Johnson. He's tall and athletic but soft underneath and needs to be a bigger presence in the post. When he's on his game, he can hit jumpers out to about 14 feet and score with a variety of options in the post, and he's a decent shotblocker, but he's gotten shoved around a lot recently. Expect to see a lot of Nemanja Calasan.
Advantage: Ever so slight edge to Duke. Even though I think the majority of our frontcourt is better, Singler makes this entire unit better for Duke.
Bench -
Duke: The Blue Devils have a number of options off the bench. Lance Thomas is their biggest scoring threat, as he averages over 9 points on the season and had 21 vs. Duquesne. Greg Paulus is a good backup PG and adds veteran leadership. Elliot Williams and David McClure also see decent minutes and aren't scoring threats but they give Dujke quality minutes. Overall this isn't a grouop that will wow anyone but they do a good job playing a support role.
Purdue: As mentioned before, expect to see Nemanja Calasan a lot this game. He's got good range and has a variety of moves in the post. Marcus Green provides rebounding an defense and an occaisional scoring punch. Lewis Jackson is our backup PG. He's very raw, but has a lot of speed and athleticism and showed vs. Oklahoma he can hit the jumper. Ryne Smith, another freshman, came off the bench for good minutes against the cupcake opponents but didn't play in New York.
Advantage: Purdue. While Duke's bench gives quality minutes, we have several scoring threats on our bench and there's less of a dropoff in talent from the starting 5 to the bench.
Leadership/Experience -
Both teams played in New York earlier this year in their respective tournaments. This is Duke's first real road test, as Purdue has already played a top 10 team away from home. Advantage to Purdue
Intangibles -
As a Purdue student I can guarantee you Mackey will be rocking, and the Boilers feed off that energy. Definite advantage to Purdue.
Overall Assessment:
These teams are very similar on paper. They match-up pretty much evenly at all the positions. However, there is a significant difference in terms of style and offensive strategy. Purdue looks for the three a lot more, while Duke likes to drive to the basket and finish inside. Both teams have had turnover problems earlier this year. Defensively, both teams aggressively guard the ball handler and get in passing lanes, looking for steals. This could end up being a very sloppy game overall, but also very high scoring due to its pace. In other words, it'll be fun to watch.
When Duke has the ball: They have so many options offensively in their starting 5, it's kinda scary. Henderson, Scheyer, Singler, Smith, and maybe even Paulus and Thomas all have the capability to go off on any given night. If anything, though, Purdue has been good at shutting down teams on the perimeter because we have so many good perimeter defenders. If Duke is able to beat us off the dribble and get into the lane, this could be a long day for my Boilers. I think our help defense is good but with so many options offensively it will be difficult to not leave a good scorer open on the rotation. If we can slow down the dribble drive, either by good man-to-man defense or turnovers, I believe we can stop this Duke attack... for the most part
When Purdue has the ball: A lot of the same things can be said for Purdue as well. Lots of scoring threats, lots of good perimeter defenders for Duke. The strategy is different, though, as Duke's pressure will lead to less open threes from the outside. Therefore, I think guys like Johnson and Calasan will be crucial inside, since Duke doesn't have a good prescence defensively in the post. Hopefully we'll incorporate some good movement off the ball and some back cuts on that pressure defense. Limit turnovers and good movement without the ball... if we can do that, then we just have to make shots, and hopefully we have enough guys who can do that that it won't be a problem.
PREDICTION: Obviously it won't go as easy as I'm making it sound. Winning the turnover battle is absolutely essential, and staying out of foul trouble is a must. The difference in this game? Home court advantage. On a neutral site this is pretty much a toss-up. At home, I know my guys are going to be fired up and ready to play. That makes the difference in this game.
Purdue 82, Duke 78
Match-ups:
Backcourt -
Duke: Gerald Henderson, Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer
This backcourt, I think, is as good as any in the country. They can all score at the rim, they can all hit the three, and they all split shots, meaning you can't focus on one guy. This presents a lot of problems for most teams, as they don't have the guards defensively to match up to their athleticism and versatility. Henderson in particular can be difficult to deal with when he's on his game. These guys won't shoot a lot of threes but both Henderson and Smith are shooting over 38% from behind the line and we can't ignore that as a possible threat.
Purdue: E' Twaun Moore, Keaton Grant, Chris Kramer
I believe if there's a team that can match up defensively against this set of guards, this is it. All three are good defenders, especially Kramer, who was the Big Ten defensive player of the year last year. We play an aggressive defense on the perimeter, creating steals and turnovers. Of course, this leaves us vulnerable to the dribble drive as well. Offensively, Moore and Grant both consistently shoot over 40% from three and are not afraid to pull the trigger consistently from that range. Of the two, Moore is also adept at finishing at the rim, and particularly because Duke doesn't have a true low post presence, if he gets in the lane, he can get some baskets. Kramer is limited offensively but gets about one drive and lay-up a game.
Advantage: Duke, but they've been turnover prone this season so if we can creats some turnovers this will be a much more even matchup.
Frontcourt -
Duke: Kyle Singler is Duke's best option offensively. His combination of size and speed makes him a matchup nightmare. He can get into the lane and finish at the rim or from mid-range. He can get to the line, although he hasn't been doing that as much as of late. He can also knock down a three here and there. He also leads the team in rebounds and assists, so the Duke offense runs through him. After that, Duke gets a little thin. Brian Zoubek, the 7 footer, starts at center but he's limited on both ends of the floor.
Purdue: Robbie Hummel is probably Purdue's best player overall. He does a little bit of everything for the Boilers. He can create his own shot, he's a solid defender, he rebounds, he passes well and finds the open man. He has matured into a leader for this team, particularly on the offensive end. Like Singler, he's a matchup nightmare, but unlike Singler, his game is much more perimeter oriented. He shoots over 40% from three and is a threat to score anywhere on the court. Starting alongside Hummel is JaJuan Johnson. He's tall and athletic but soft underneath and needs to be a bigger presence in the post. When he's on his game, he can hit jumpers out to about 14 feet and score with a variety of options in the post, and he's a decent shotblocker, but he's gotten shoved around a lot recently. Expect to see a lot of Nemanja Calasan.
Advantage: Ever so slight edge to Duke. Even though I think the majority of our frontcourt is better, Singler makes this entire unit better for Duke.
Bench -
Duke: The Blue Devils have a number of options off the bench. Lance Thomas is their biggest scoring threat, as he averages over 9 points on the season and had 21 vs. Duquesne. Greg Paulus is a good backup PG and adds veteran leadership. Elliot Williams and David McClure also see decent minutes and aren't scoring threats but they give Dujke quality minutes. Overall this isn't a grouop that will wow anyone but they do a good job playing a support role.
Purdue: As mentioned before, expect to see Nemanja Calasan a lot this game. He's got good range and has a variety of moves in the post. Marcus Green provides rebounding an defense and an occaisional scoring punch. Lewis Jackson is our backup PG. He's very raw, but has a lot of speed and athleticism and showed vs. Oklahoma he can hit the jumper. Ryne Smith, another freshman, came off the bench for good minutes against the cupcake opponents but didn't play in New York.
Advantage: Purdue. While Duke's bench gives quality minutes, we have several scoring threats on our bench and there's less of a dropoff in talent from the starting 5 to the bench.
Leadership/Experience -
Both teams played in New York earlier this year in their respective tournaments. This is Duke's first real road test, as Purdue has already played a top 10 team away from home. Advantage to Purdue
Intangibles -
As a Purdue student I can guarantee you Mackey will be rocking, and the Boilers feed off that energy. Definite advantage to Purdue.
Overall Assessment:
These teams are very similar on paper. They match-up pretty much evenly at all the positions. However, there is a significant difference in terms of style and offensive strategy. Purdue looks for the three a lot more, while Duke likes to drive to the basket and finish inside. Both teams have had turnover problems earlier this year. Defensively, both teams aggressively guard the ball handler and get in passing lanes, looking for steals. This could end up being a very sloppy game overall, but also very high scoring due to its pace. In other words, it'll be fun to watch.
When Duke has the ball: They have so many options offensively in their starting 5, it's kinda scary. Henderson, Scheyer, Singler, Smith, and maybe even Paulus and Thomas all have the capability to go off on any given night. If anything, though, Purdue has been good at shutting down teams on the perimeter because we have so many good perimeter defenders. If Duke is able to beat us off the dribble and get into the lane, this could be a long day for my Boilers. I think our help defense is good but with so many options offensively it will be difficult to not leave a good scorer open on the rotation. If we can slow down the dribble drive, either by good man-to-man defense or turnovers, I believe we can stop this Duke attack... for the most part
When Purdue has the ball: A lot of the same things can be said for Purdue as well. Lots of scoring threats, lots of good perimeter defenders for Duke. The strategy is different, though, as Duke's pressure will lead to less open threes from the outside. Therefore, I think guys like Johnson and Calasan will be crucial inside, since Duke doesn't have a good prescence defensively in the post. Hopefully we'll incorporate some good movement off the ball and some back cuts on that pressure defense. Limit turnovers and good movement without the ball... if we can do that, then we just have to make shots, and hopefully we have enough guys who can do that that it won't be a problem.
PREDICTION: Obviously it won't go as easy as I'm making it sound. Winning the turnover battle is absolutely essential, and staying out of foul trouble is a must. The difference in this game? Home court advantage. On a neutral site this is pretty much a toss-up. At home, I know my guys are going to be fired up and ready to play. That makes the difference in this game.
Purdue 82, Duke 78
Monday, December 1, 2008
Games to Watch - Week of Dec. 1st
It's December and while the weather's getting colder, the college basketball season is heating up! Okay, that was really dumb, but it's kinda true. Anyway, on with the games to watch:
Preseason Tourneys/Events:
ACC/Big 10 Challenge (Dec. 1st-3rd)
The annual ACC whipping of the Big 10 is upon us, but despite how the overall results may go the individual matchups should be really good. Rather than list all the matchups here, I'll preview them as we go depending on what day it is.
My Pick: Listed on Wednesday
Big 12/ Pac-10 Hardwood Series
Apparently this already started. Stanford beat Colorado on Saturday to give the Pac-10 a 1-0 lead. So much for organization. Seriously, take a page from the ACC/Big 10 challenge and just put every game on a three day window. It can't be that difficult. They've got series games in late December for crying out loud. I'm not going to remember this series by then. Anyway, I'll preview these games as well, as there's some good games to be found here as well.
My pick: Listed on Sunday
Mon Dec. 1st
ACC/Big 10 Challenge games:
Wisconsin v. Virginia Tech - The Big 10 might actually win this one. I like the Badgers more than most people I've heard from thus far. I think they execute their methodical style of basketball as well as anyone in the country, and they hung with UConn for a good portion of the Paradise Jam final. Meanwhile, people wonder why the Hokies haven't made the tournament the past few years and it's for this reason: they don't win these kinds of games. They've already lost to Xavier and Seton Hall and with some other ACC teams getting some good out of conference wins (Maryland, BC) Virginia Tech probably needs this one to keep pace, as it's their last shot at a good non conference win.
George Mason v. Liberty - Yes, it's a slow day in college hoops, but that means I get to talk some small conference b-ball! George Mason's back on top of the Colonial for the time being, and with VCU not blowing anyone out of the water, the conference could be up for the taking again. The Patriots already won @ East Carolina, who beat VCU, so they have this game and @ Dayton at the end of December before their conference schedule. Meanwhile, Liberty has the best overall record in the Big South but is in last because they already lost a conference game to favorites UNC-Asheville. They have @ Clemson and @ DePaul coming up before the conference season.
Tues, Dec. 2nd
ACC/Big 10 Challenge games:
Ohio State v. Miami (FL) - this is the beginning of a very difficult stretch for the Buckeyes which includes @ Notre Dame, Butler, and West Virginia at the end of the month. Ohio State hasn't been tested at all this year but they will be soon.
Iowa v. Boston College - I haven't seen Iowa play but I have seen BC and if that game was any indication, Iowa's going to have their hands full with this young Eagles team. Iowa already got smoked by West Virginia this year so it's not looking good for the Big 10 in this matchup.
Clemson v. Illinois - I think the Big 10 has a legit shot at winning this one as well. Clemson is undefeated but their best win is home vs. Temple which isn't anything to write home about. Meanwhile, Illinois showed what they're capable of this year by winning at Vanderbilt, which is not an easy thing to do by any means. At the beginning of the season I would've given this one to Clemson but now I think the young Illini players are growing up quicker than any of us expected.
Virginia v. Minnesota - Possibly the worst team in the ACC vs. an okay mid-level Big 10 team. Good matchup for the Big 10, but the Cavaliers did give Syracuse all they could handle at the Carrier Dome on Friday, so this one could go either way as well
Duke v. Purdue - This could be the most competitive game of the challenge, or it could be very one-sided. If Purdue can do a better job of limiting fouls, cut off driving lanes, and create turnovers, we're going to have a very entertaining game on our hands. However, Duke also has the firepower to run the Boilers out of their own gymnasium. If I was a betting man, I'd vote for the former, especially considering Purdue doesn't go down easily in Mackey.
Wed Dec 3rd
Indiana v. Wake Forest - Do I really need to say anything about this game?
Penn State v. Georgia Tech - Tech's played no one. State lost to Rhode Island but otherwise beat a bunch of cupcakes. Neither team has really done anything yet, and not much is expected out of either of them, so let's call this even.
Michigan v. Maryland - The battle of the mini-Cinderellas. Both have beaten top 10 teams so far this year, and both could surprise come conference play. Of the two, Maryland's win impressed me more. I feel like they dominated Michigan St. more, and UCLA simply couldn't execute offensively down the stretch vs. Michigan. Slight edge to the Terps but this one could go either way.
UNC v. Michigan St. - The Spartans had issues with a mid-level ACC team that probably won't make the tournament and a decent Missouri Valley team that probably won't make the tournament. I don't care that it's in Detroit, they're not beating the Tar Heels.
Florida St. v. Northwestern - The Seminoles have the advantage, but watch out for Coble and that screwy Princeton offense Northwestern runs.
MY PREDICTIONS: I'm picking UNC, Wake Forest, Florida State, and Boston College for sure in the ACC, and Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue for the Big 10 (despite my belief that Purdue-Duke will be a close game that could easily go either way, I'm not picking against my team). The other matchups are toss-ups. Of the four, I'm leaning towards Miami (FL) and Maryland. Clemson-Illinois seems pretty even, and I have no idea on the Penn State-Georgia Tech game, so for kicks I'll take Illinois and Penn State and say the ACC wins 6-5.
West Virginia v. Ole Miss - Really, people. Anyone could win the SEC West at this point. Of the six Miss St. has looked the best but they lost to Washington St. and Texas Tech over the weekend so they're far from stellar. Meanwhile this is probably the Rebels best shot at beaing a good non-conference opponent this year (unless Louisville decides to cash it in again like against Western Kentucky)
Wichita State v. Texas Tech - Tech lost to Pitt but beat Mississippi State to take third place in the Legends Classic, which I would say is a success. They have a tricky non-conference game here vs. a Wichita State team who only went 1-2 in the Old Spice Classic but gave both Georgetown and Michigan St. problems offensively. If Tech wins this game, they only have @ UTEP standing in the way of a 14-1 non-conference slate, which is what they'll need to do to make a tournament run.
DePaul v. Cal - The Bears are in a similar situation to Texas Tech... and they have @ UNLV as a win on their resume. And in a Pac-10 which appears pretty wide open at this point, there will be decent wins to go around. I'd say 4th place in the Pac 10 is not an unreasonable goal, and that would give them some at-large consideration for the tournament.
Thurs, Dec. 4th
Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series
UCLA v. Texas - Actually, I take that back. Any series that can give us this good of a matchup early in the season is okay in my book. If you like slow-paced defensive basketball, this one's for you. Don't expect either team to run the other out of the water. It will likely come down to execution at the end... and this would be a good time for the UCLA freshman to start living up to the hype.
USC v. Oklahoma - Taj Gibson vs. Blake Griffin. Sounds like a matchup we'll be hearing more of in the NBA someday. But for now, we have a very talented but underachieving Trojan team taking on a very talented, overachieving Sooner team. On paper, this is a close matchup. Based on recent results, this definitely favors the Big 12 again.
Oklahoma St. v. Washington - Okay, Huskies... you're looking to get a good non-conference win for your tournament resume... well, how about Kansas? No? Too good for you? How about Florida? Still no? Well... uh... I'm kind of at a loss for options here... how about the Cowboys? Seriously, take it or leave it. You're going to need one of these at some point and this is your best option. Well?
Mt. St. Mary's v. Sacred Heart - Yay for ESPN showing two not-very-good small conference teams on national TV. Not being sarcastic or anything...
Fri, Dec. 5th
Arizona v. Texas A&M - Looking like a win for the Pac-10, but the Aggies have a good mix of senior leadership and young talent which could mesh later in the year during Big 12 conference play.
Sat, Dec. 6th
Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series
Baylor v. Washington State - If you want to stay up late, you might catch this sleeper of a basketball game. And by "sleeper" I mean "underrated", not actually sleeping
Oregon State v. Iowa State - Hey, at least the Beavers won a b-ball game!
Duke v. Michigan - No, this isn't a typo. They were already scheduled to play this season. So yes, they're playing each other twice. This isn't that difficult of a concept people
Ohio State v. Notre Dame - Game two of the out of the three game stretch that will define Ohio State's resume. At least, the non-conference part
Miami (FL) v. Kentucky - Last year, they started their tournament run during conference play. This year, with wins over Kansas State and West Virginia, they're trying to put away bad memories of ugly non-conference losses early. Want to get rid of it completely? Beat the U at home on Saturday.
Wisconsin v. Marquette - A lot of people believe this Wisconsin team shouldn't be ranked. If they want to justify their ranking, here's a good way to do it.
UAB v. Cincinnati - The Big East Campaign For 10 Tournament Teams rolls on. Chances in your house against strugging marginal tournament teams don't come around very often. If there is going to be a tenth Big East team in the tournament, they better have some good non-conference wins, and here's a possibility.
Rhode Island v. Providence - Same as above, except for the struggling part
Creighton v. St. Joseph's - The battle of the underachieving-at-large-mid-major-conference-hopefuls.
Dayton v. Akron - I'll let you in on a little secret. You know the Dayton Flyers? Yea, they're pretty good.
BYU v. Utah State - Both teams are undefeated. Go figure.
Sun, Dec. 7th
Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Classic:
Nebraska v. Arizona State - Good opportunity for a Cornhusker team that is fresh off a good win vs. Creighton. Get this win and their at-large stock would skyrocket.
Kansas St. v. Oregon - Should be a pretty even game, which hopefully means it's entertaining. Besides, if nothing else, you know the Ducks will be running the ball up and down the floor so it'll be entertaining if not sloppy.
Cal v. Missouri - This game could be very, very important for tournament selection purposes in March. And very important for the series.
MY PREDICTION: Other games in the series include Kansas @ Arizona on Dec. 23rd and Texas Tech @ Stanford on Dec. 28th. I'll take the Big 12 for two games on Thursday (Texas and Oklahoma), both games on Friday (Baylor and Iowa State), the Missouri game on Sunday, and Kansas and Tech to give the Big 12 a 7-5 win. I am also considering taking Kansas State over Oregon and REALLY wanted to pick Nebraska to upset Arizona State but both are on the road and not as likely.
Florida v. Florida State - Here's hoping this one's better than the football one.
Miss Valley St. v. Kentucky - Poor Mississippi Valley State. They're like the power conference punching bag this year. Already lost to Arizona St, Washington St, Oklahoma, Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa State. And if that isn't bad enough, their nickname is the Delta Devils. What does that even mean? But there is one saving grace. They play in the SWAC, where no team has a winning record and only one team has more than one win. So maybe they'll catch fire and win the conference. And then beat all those teams in the tournament who beat them in the regular season. That'll show them. Anyway, that seems like a good way to end this.
Preseason Tourneys/Events:
ACC/Big 10 Challenge (Dec. 1st-3rd)
The annual ACC whipping of the Big 10 is upon us, but despite how the overall results may go the individual matchups should be really good. Rather than list all the matchups here, I'll preview them as we go depending on what day it is.
My Pick: Listed on Wednesday
Big 12/ Pac-10 Hardwood Series
Apparently this already started. Stanford beat Colorado on Saturday to give the Pac-10 a 1-0 lead. So much for organization. Seriously, take a page from the ACC/Big 10 challenge and just put every game on a three day window. It can't be that difficult. They've got series games in late December for crying out loud. I'm not going to remember this series by then. Anyway, I'll preview these games as well, as there's some good games to be found here as well.
My pick: Listed on Sunday
Mon Dec. 1st
ACC/Big 10 Challenge games:
Wisconsin v. Virginia Tech - The Big 10 might actually win this one. I like the Badgers more than most people I've heard from thus far. I think they execute their methodical style of basketball as well as anyone in the country, and they hung with UConn for a good portion of the Paradise Jam final. Meanwhile, people wonder why the Hokies haven't made the tournament the past few years and it's for this reason: they don't win these kinds of games. They've already lost to Xavier and Seton Hall and with some other ACC teams getting some good out of conference wins (Maryland, BC) Virginia Tech probably needs this one to keep pace, as it's their last shot at a good non conference win.
George Mason v. Liberty - Yes, it's a slow day in college hoops, but that means I get to talk some small conference b-ball! George Mason's back on top of the Colonial for the time being, and with VCU not blowing anyone out of the water, the conference could be up for the taking again. The Patriots already won @ East Carolina, who beat VCU, so they have this game and @ Dayton at the end of December before their conference schedule. Meanwhile, Liberty has the best overall record in the Big South but is in last because they already lost a conference game to favorites UNC-Asheville. They have @ Clemson and @ DePaul coming up before the conference season.
Tues, Dec. 2nd
ACC/Big 10 Challenge games:
Ohio State v. Miami (FL) - this is the beginning of a very difficult stretch for the Buckeyes which includes @ Notre Dame, Butler, and West Virginia at the end of the month. Ohio State hasn't been tested at all this year but they will be soon.
Iowa v. Boston College - I haven't seen Iowa play but I have seen BC and if that game was any indication, Iowa's going to have their hands full with this young Eagles team. Iowa already got smoked by West Virginia this year so it's not looking good for the Big 10 in this matchup.
Clemson v. Illinois - I think the Big 10 has a legit shot at winning this one as well. Clemson is undefeated but their best win is home vs. Temple which isn't anything to write home about. Meanwhile, Illinois showed what they're capable of this year by winning at Vanderbilt, which is not an easy thing to do by any means. At the beginning of the season I would've given this one to Clemson but now I think the young Illini players are growing up quicker than any of us expected.
Virginia v. Minnesota - Possibly the worst team in the ACC vs. an okay mid-level Big 10 team. Good matchup for the Big 10, but the Cavaliers did give Syracuse all they could handle at the Carrier Dome on Friday, so this one could go either way as well
Duke v. Purdue - This could be the most competitive game of the challenge, or it could be very one-sided. If Purdue can do a better job of limiting fouls, cut off driving lanes, and create turnovers, we're going to have a very entertaining game on our hands. However, Duke also has the firepower to run the Boilers out of their own gymnasium. If I was a betting man, I'd vote for the former, especially considering Purdue doesn't go down easily in Mackey.
Wed Dec 3rd
Indiana v. Wake Forest - Do I really need to say anything about this game?
Penn State v. Georgia Tech - Tech's played no one. State lost to Rhode Island but otherwise beat a bunch of cupcakes. Neither team has really done anything yet, and not much is expected out of either of them, so let's call this even.
Michigan v. Maryland - The battle of the mini-Cinderellas. Both have beaten top 10 teams so far this year, and both could surprise come conference play. Of the two, Maryland's win impressed me more. I feel like they dominated Michigan St. more, and UCLA simply couldn't execute offensively down the stretch vs. Michigan. Slight edge to the Terps but this one could go either way.
UNC v. Michigan St. - The Spartans had issues with a mid-level ACC team that probably won't make the tournament and a decent Missouri Valley team that probably won't make the tournament. I don't care that it's in Detroit, they're not beating the Tar Heels.
Florida St. v. Northwestern - The Seminoles have the advantage, but watch out for Coble and that screwy Princeton offense Northwestern runs.
MY PREDICTIONS: I'm picking UNC, Wake Forest, Florida State, and Boston College for sure in the ACC, and Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue for the Big 10 (despite my belief that Purdue-Duke will be a close game that could easily go either way, I'm not picking against my team). The other matchups are toss-ups. Of the four, I'm leaning towards Miami (FL) and Maryland. Clemson-Illinois seems pretty even, and I have no idea on the Penn State-Georgia Tech game, so for kicks I'll take Illinois and Penn State and say the ACC wins 6-5.
West Virginia v. Ole Miss - Really, people. Anyone could win the SEC West at this point. Of the six Miss St. has looked the best but they lost to Washington St. and Texas Tech over the weekend so they're far from stellar. Meanwhile this is probably the Rebels best shot at beaing a good non-conference opponent this year (unless Louisville decides to cash it in again like against Western Kentucky)
Wichita State v. Texas Tech - Tech lost to Pitt but beat Mississippi State to take third place in the Legends Classic, which I would say is a success. They have a tricky non-conference game here vs. a Wichita State team who only went 1-2 in the Old Spice Classic but gave both Georgetown and Michigan St. problems offensively. If Tech wins this game, they only have @ UTEP standing in the way of a 14-1 non-conference slate, which is what they'll need to do to make a tournament run.
DePaul v. Cal - The Bears are in a similar situation to Texas Tech... and they have @ UNLV as a win on their resume. And in a Pac-10 which appears pretty wide open at this point, there will be decent wins to go around. I'd say 4th place in the Pac 10 is not an unreasonable goal, and that would give them some at-large consideration for the tournament.
Thurs, Dec. 4th
Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series
UCLA v. Texas - Actually, I take that back. Any series that can give us this good of a matchup early in the season is okay in my book. If you like slow-paced defensive basketball, this one's for you. Don't expect either team to run the other out of the water. It will likely come down to execution at the end... and this would be a good time for the UCLA freshman to start living up to the hype.
USC v. Oklahoma - Taj Gibson vs. Blake Griffin. Sounds like a matchup we'll be hearing more of in the NBA someday. But for now, we have a very talented but underachieving Trojan team taking on a very talented, overachieving Sooner team. On paper, this is a close matchup. Based on recent results, this definitely favors the Big 12 again.
Oklahoma St. v. Washington - Okay, Huskies... you're looking to get a good non-conference win for your tournament resume... well, how about Kansas? No? Too good for you? How about Florida? Still no? Well... uh... I'm kind of at a loss for options here... how about the Cowboys? Seriously, take it or leave it. You're going to need one of these at some point and this is your best option. Well?
Mt. St. Mary's v. Sacred Heart - Yay for ESPN showing two not-very-good small conference teams on national TV. Not being sarcastic or anything...
Fri, Dec. 5th
Arizona v. Texas A&M - Looking like a win for the Pac-10, but the Aggies have a good mix of senior leadership and young talent which could mesh later in the year during Big 12 conference play.
Sat, Dec. 6th
Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series
Baylor v. Washington State - If you want to stay up late, you might catch this sleeper of a basketball game. And by "sleeper" I mean "underrated", not actually sleeping
Oregon State v. Iowa State - Hey, at least the Beavers won a b-ball game!
Duke v. Michigan - No, this isn't a typo. They were already scheduled to play this season. So yes, they're playing each other twice. This isn't that difficult of a concept people
Ohio State v. Notre Dame - Game two of the out of the three game stretch that will define Ohio State's resume. At least, the non-conference part
Miami (FL) v. Kentucky - Last year, they started their tournament run during conference play. This year, with wins over Kansas State and West Virginia, they're trying to put away bad memories of ugly non-conference losses early. Want to get rid of it completely? Beat the U at home on Saturday.
Wisconsin v. Marquette - A lot of people believe this Wisconsin team shouldn't be ranked. If they want to justify their ranking, here's a good way to do it.
UAB v. Cincinnati - The Big East Campaign For 10 Tournament Teams rolls on. Chances in your house against strugging marginal tournament teams don't come around very often. If there is going to be a tenth Big East team in the tournament, they better have some good non-conference wins, and here's a possibility.
Rhode Island v. Providence - Same as above, except for the struggling part
Creighton v. St. Joseph's - The battle of the underachieving-at-large-mid-major-conference-hopefuls.
Dayton v. Akron - I'll let you in on a little secret. You know the Dayton Flyers? Yea, they're pretty good.
BYU v. Utah State - Both teams are undefeated. Go figure.
Sun, Dec. 7th
Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Classic:
Nebraska v. Arizona State - Good opportunity for a Cornhusker team that is fresh off a good win vs. Creighton. Get this win and their at-large stock would skyrocket.
Kansas St. v. Oregon - Should be a pretty even game, which hopefully means it's entertaining. Besides, if nothing else, you know the Ducks will be running the ball up and down the floor so it'll be entertaining if not sloppy.
Cal v. Missouri - This game could be very, very important for tournament selection purposes in March. And very important for the series.
MY PREDICTION: Other games in the series include Kansas @ Arizona on Dec. 23rd and Texas Tech @ Stanford on Dec. 28th. I'll take the Big 12 for two games on Thursday (Texas and Oklahoma), both games on Friday (Baylor and Iowa State), the Missouri game on Sunday, and Kansas and Tech to give the Big 12 a 7-5 win. I am also considering taking Kansas State over Oregon and REALLY wanted to pick Nebraska to upset Arizona State but both are on the road and not as likely.
Florida v. Florida State - Here's hoping this one's better than the football one.
Miss Valley St. v. Kentucky - Poor Mississippi Valley State. They're like the power conference punching bag this year. Already lost to Arizona St, Washington St, Oklahoma, Arizona, Georgia, and Iowa State. And if that isn't bad enough, their nickname is the Delta Devils. What does that even mean? But there is one saving grace. They play in the SWAC, where no team has a winning record and only one team has more than one win. So maybe they'll catch fire and win the conference. And then beat all those teams in the tournament who beat them in the regular season. That'll show them. Anyway, that seems like a good way to end this.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
