Purdue-Duke Preview

When I got Purdue's schedule, this was the game we all circled, and now it's finally here. You don't get shots at top 5 teams in your arena very often, especially a team with as much tradition and prestige as Duke. This would be a HUGE win for our program. With my innate bias in mind (which I will keep to a minimum) I'll give a preview of this game and what I think is going to happen.

Match-ups:

Backcourt -

Duke: Gerald Henderson, Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer
This backcourt, I think, is as good as any in the country. They can all score at the rim, they can all hit the three, and they all split shots, meaning you can't focus on one guy. This presents a lot of problems for most teams, as they don't have the guards defensively to match up to their athleticism and versatility. Henderson in particular can be difficult to deal with when he's on his game. These guys won't shoot a lot of threes but both Henderson and Smith are shooting over 38% from behind the line and we can't ignore that as a possible threat.

Purdue: E' Twaun Moore, Keaton Grant, Chris Kramer
I believe if there's a team that can match up defensively against this set of guards, this is it. All three are good defenders, especially Kramer, who was the Big Ten defensive player of the year last year. We play an aggressive defense on the perimeter, creating steals and turnovers. Of course, this leaves us vulnerable to the dribble drive as well. Offensively, Moore and Grant both consistently shoot over 40% from three and are not afraid to pull the trigger consistently from that range. Of the two, Moore is also adept at finishing at the rim, and particularly because Duke doesn't have a true low post presence, if he gets in the lane, he can get some baskets. Kramer is limited offensively but gets about one drive and lay-up a game.

Advantage: Duke, but they've been turnover prone this season so if we can creats some turnovers this will be a much more even matchup.

Frontcourt -
Duke: Kyle Singler is Duke's best option offensively. His combination of size and speed makes him a matchup nightmare. He can get into the lane and finish at the rim or from mid-range. He can get to the line, although he hasn't been doing that as much as of late. He can also knock down a three here and there. He also leads the team in rebounds and assists, so the Duke offense runs through him. After that, Duke gets a little thin. Brian Zoubek, the 7 footer, starts at center but he's limited on both ends of the floor.

Purdue: Robbie Hummel is probably Purdue's best player overall. He does a little bit of everything for the Boilers. He can create his own shot, he's a solid defender, he rebounds, he passes well and finds the open man. He has matured into a leader for this team, particularly on the offensive end. Like Singler, he's a matchup nightmare, but unlike Singler, his game is much more perimeter oriented. He shoots over 40% from three and is a threat to score anywhere on the court. Starting alongside Hummel is JaJuan Johnson. He's tall and athletic but soft underneath and needs to be a bigger presence in the post. When he's on his game, he can hit jumpers out to about 14 feet and score with a variety of options in the post, and he's a decent shotblocker, but he's gotten shoved around a lot recently. Expect to see a lot of Nemanja Calasan.

Advantage: Ever so slight edge to Duke. Even though I think the majority of our frontcourt is better, Singler makes this entire unit better for Duke.

Bench -
Duke: The Blue Devils have a number of options off the bench. Lance Thomas is their biggest scoring threat, as he averages over 9 points on the season and had 21 vs. Duquesne. Greg Paulus is a good backup PG and adds veteran leadership. Elliot Williams and David McClure also see decent minutes and aren't scoring threats but they give Dujke quality minutes. Overall this isn't a grouop that will wow anyone but they do a good job playing a support role.

Purdue: As mentioned before, expect to see Nemanja Calasan a lot this game. He's got good range and has a variety of moves in the post. Marcus Green provides rebounding an defense and an occaisional scoring punch. Lewis Jackson is our backup PG. He's very raw, but has a lot of speed and athleticism and showed vs. Oklahoma he can hit the jumper. Ryne Smith, another freshman, came off the bench for good minutes against the cupcake opponents but didn't play in New York.

Advantage: Purdue. While Duke's bench gives quality minutes, we have several scoring threats on our bench and there's less of a dropoff in talent from the starting 5 to the bench.

Leadership/Experience -
Both teams played in New York earlier this year in their respective tournaments. This is Duke's first real road test, as Purdue has already played a top 10 team away from home. Advantage to Purdue

Intangibles -
As a Purdue student I can guarantee you Mackey will be rocking, and the Boilers feed off that energy. Definite advantage to Purdue.

Overall Assessment:

These teams are very similar on paper. They match-up pretty much evenly at all the positions. However, there is a significant difference in terms of style and offensive strategy. Purdue looks for the three a lot more, while Duke likes to drive to the basket and finish inside. Both teams have had turnover problems earlier this year. Defensively, both teams aggressively guard the ball handler and get in passing lanes, looking for steals. This could end up being a very sloppy game overall, but also very high scoring due to its pace. In other words, it'll be fun to watch.

When Duke has the ball: They have so many options offensively in their starting 5, it's kinda scary. Henderson, Scheyer, Singler, Smith, and maybe even Paulus and Thomas all have the capability to go off on any given night. If anything, though, Purdue has been good at shutting down teams on the perimeter because we have so many good perimeter defenders. If Duke is able to beat us off the dribble and get into the lane, this could be a long day for my Boilers. I think our help defense is good but with so many options offensively it will be difficult to not leave a good scorer open on the rotation. If we can slow down the dribble drive, either by good man-to-man defense or turnovers, I believe we can stop this Duke attack... for the most part

When Purdue has the ball: A lot of the same things can be said for Purdue as well. Lots of scoring threats, lots of good perimeter defenders for Duke. The strategy is different, though, as Duke's pressure will lead to less open threes from the outside. Therefore, I think guys like Johnson and Calasan will be crucial inside, since Duke doesn't have a good prescence defensively in the post. Hopefully we'll incorporate some good movement off the ball and some back cuts on that pressure defense. Limit turnovers and good movement without the ball... if we can do that, then we just have to make shots, and hopefully we have enough guys who can do that that it won't be a problem.

PREDICTION: Obviously it won't go as easy as I'm making it sound. Winning the turnover battle is absolutely essential, and staying out of foul trouble is a must. The difference in this game? Home court advantage. On a neutral site this is pretty much a toss-up. At home, I know my guys are going to be fired up and ready to play. That makes the difference in this game.

Purdue 82, Duke 78