The state of ACC and Big Ten college basketball

So since I've been away for a few days, rather than try to catch up on daily recaps I decided to do an overall look at the big picture for both of these conferences. If you didn't know already, the ACC won 6-5. So here we go:

ACC

North Carolina - Smoked Michigan St. at Ford Field. Much has been said already about this team but if you didn't know... this team is stacked. They could probably put up 100 on all but the very best of teams... and by very best I mean all but UConn, Gonzaga, and maybe some teams that slow the pace of the game down way too much (like Texas and UCLA). This is the #1 team in the nation by far and I don't see any reason they can't run the table. Yes, that means go undefeated. I think they'll lose at some point but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they didn't.

Duke - I'll talk more about them here:

http://chitownballa.blogspot.com/2008/12/purdue-vs-duke-thoughts.html


As far as the ACC season goes, I think this team is VERY vulnerable in the post and would get eaten alive inside by Hansbrough and UNC. I also think Wake Forest would give them problems in the post as well. Everyone else in this conference, their backcourt and wings will be too much to handle.

Wake Forest - Trounced IU, which was no surprise. This is a very talented, very athletic team who I believe could mature into a top 5 team should they continue to develop. At the moment, I'll go with 3rd best in the ACC.

Miami (FL) - Losing McClinton made all the difference in the Ohio St. game. I would be more concerned with this team if this wasn't a road game, and if this wasn't a decent Ohio St. team, and if they hadn't lost McClinton due to a flagrant foul. All those things considered, I'll move that loss from the "Should have won" category to the "Toss up game where home court advantage made the difference" category. It is unsettling, though, that outside of McClinton and Hurdle the U really struggled against Ohio St.'s full court pressure, and that their defense looked as bad as it did in the 2nd half. Both of those will REALLY hurt Miami against Duke, UNC, and Wake and is the main reason they're 4th right now. But they should still make the tourney with relative ease.

This is where things get dicey. I said before if the ACC beats up on itself again and no 5th team emerges, they're going to only end up with 4 bids again. Will it happen this year? Early indications say... maybe.

Virginia Tech - That's the 2nd heartbreaking loss of the year for a school that's made a habit of heartbreaking losses over the past few years. Unfortunately for the Hokies, close loss does not equal win, and VT failed on every shot they had to get a good non-conference win. Seriously... they'll probably enter conference play with their best out of conference win being at Georgia. That's not going to get you in the tournament. To make matters worse... they only get one shot at UNC, Miami, and Wake Forest. You know what this means? Virginia Tech could be looking at as many as 11 ACC wins and a 21-7 record entering the tournament and STILL not have a quality win. Sounds a lot like last year

Clemson - Could the Tigers make a tournament run? They picked up a solid... not great, solid... win @ Illinois and are currently 8-0. This team had a fair amount of players return from last year's good, albiet overrated, team, but they've flown under the radar so far this season. After a couple more cupcake non-conference games this team will likely be 11-0 heading into Miami on December 21st. Other important games... January 17th Wake Forest comes to town, February 4th Duke comes to town, and February 25th they get a home game vs. Virginia Tech for which could make or break either team. Bottom line... the Tigers will pile a lot of wins but it's the quality ones that matter. Will they get enough of those?

Maryland - Took a ginormous step forward beating Michigan St. on a neutral floor, then took a ginormous step backward by getting killed by Georgetown in the same tournament, then took a mini-step forward beating Michigan at home. Michigan's not likely a tournament team, however, and one win in early November can only carry you so far. Vazquez is having a great season and is a difficult matchup at 6'6", but the rest of the team is nothing special. Their major tests will be January 31st at home vs. Miami and Valentine's Day at home vs. VT, and February 17th @ Clemson. Win all those swing games and the Terps are probably looking at 10 ACC wins, which that and the Michigan St. win could very well be enough to get in.

Florida State - Impressive win over Cal negated by not so impressive loss at Northwestern. They also had a win over Cincinnati earlier, which isn't great but at least it's not a cupcake team. Good chance to redeem themselves Sunday when they get Florida at home. Win that one and I will consider bumping them up a spot. Key conference games include home vs. Maryland on January 17th, home vs. Miami on February 18th, and home vs. Clemson on February 28th. They close their season with VT as well.

Boston College - The poor man's Maryland. Their preseason tournament win was less impressive (UAB), their ACC/Big 10 challenge win was less impressive (Iowa, at home, because a guy missed free throws), but unlike Maryland they have some decent non-conference games left, including @ UMass and home vs. Providence. If they don't win both of those I don't really see this team making a tournament run, as neither of those teams look like tournament teams at this point.

Georgia Tech - Lost what turned out to be a very good game vs. Penn St. This is a young team with some good players (like Gani Lawal) but this year they will likely take their lumps in the ACC.

Virginia - Three straight losses, two of them to teams that likely won't make the tournament (unless Liberty wins their conference which is entirely possible), including Minnesota in the challenge. It's not happening this year.

North Carolina State - Get back to me when you actually play someone legit.


OUTLOOK: Four teams are locks for the tournament. From what I've seen, I think it's highly unlikely the ACC doesn't get at least 1 more in unless absolutely nobody establishes themselves in conference (which I suppose is entirely possible). Virginia Tech, Clemson, Maryland, and even Florida State all have the talent to pick up some good conference wins, and the majority of those teams now have non-conference wins to fall back on a bit. At this point I think it's actually more probable that six make it in instead of four, but I'll settle for the middle and go with FIVE teams in the tournament. The 5th team? I have no idea, but I'll take Clemson based on the strength of their challenge win and the team outlook.

Big 10



Purdue - See more here:

http://chitownballa.blogspot.com/2008/12/purdue-vs-duke-thoughts.html

This game was a tragedy but not a backbreaker by any means. Nobody in the Big 10 is going to have that kind of athletic ability across the board (except maybe Michigan State, and they have troubles of their own right now). At the moment they're still the Big 10 favorites in my mind.

Michigan State - Loss to UNC? Not particularly disturbing, since I kind of expected this. Loss to Maryland? Uh oh... This team is uber-talented but they haven't seemed to figure it out yet. Morgan looked better in the UNC game but the Spartans aren't going to win a lot of games with him taking only 4 shots like he did against Maryland. Hopefully a good game against the Tar Heels will get him back on track. Missing Suton hurts, but he's not the whole answer. The Spartans need to stop turning the ball over and start taking better shots if they're going to want to fix this offense for Big 10 play.

Wisconsin - They get 3rd in the Big 10 for the time being. This team lost a few key seniors from last year but there was no doubt in my mind this would still be a competitive team. They're very well coached, they're experienced on the perimeter, and they're one of the few teams who stick to their game plan for 40 minutes whether they're playing UConn or Cal State Fullerton. And it worked for a while against the #2 team in the nation, so why not? This team is somewhat undersized and not as talented or athletic as the two teams above them (or the one below) but the Badgers will find a way to stay competitive for a Big 10 title.

Ohio St. - I guess I have to start worrying about this team now, huh? They beat a Jack McClinton-less Hurricanes squad on the road to pick up a very, very good non-conference win. I didn't think this team was going to have any real struggle to make the tournament but especially with the Miami win, the pressure's off somewhat in Big 10 play. This is a very young team, as no seniors get any real playing time. Sophomores Evan Turner and Jon Diebler lead the way offensively, and David Lighty gives the team some veteran presence underneath. Defensively, their full court pressure gave the U all kinds of headaches and forced 18 turnovers. And this is with the major stars of this incoming freshman class - B. J. Mullins, William Buford, Anthony Crater - all struggling. Once these guys come around, this Buckeye team could be very, very dangerous.

Illinois - The Big 10 has a few options for a possible 5th team in the tournament. These best of those options is the Illini, who suffered a heartbreaking loss in the last possession vs. Clemson. That was a crucial loss that could have huge implications when it comes to ranking teams in March. They do have a good non-conference win at Vanderbilt, which is one of the more difficult places to win in college basketball. This team has a good mix of youngsters (Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis) and vets (Trent Meacham, Chester Frazier) and they play with a chip on their shoulder. The question is... will that Clemson loss come back to hurt them? They get shots at home vs. Ohio St. and Wisconsin on back-to-back games in mid-January, and Michigan St. comes to town in March.

Michigan - Another team that may be looking to one win to carry them to a tournament bid. The win over UCLA at a neutral court was very good, but unfortunately they couldn't follow it up against Duke or @ Maryland. Neither are bad losses, but especially the Maryland one is one that a tournament team should probably win. They get another shot at Duke on Saturday and then some cupcake games before conference play. If DeShawn Sims can step up in conference play like he has so far this year, Michigan has a chance to finish as high as 4th or 5th in the Big 10, and if they get some solid wins in conference, they might just sneak in the NCAAs.

Minnesota - Well, they're undefeated, but their best win so far is home vs. Virginia. But still, they're undefeated, and they won't be seriously challenged until December 20th vs. Louisville. They're probably on the outside looking in at the moment but if they can pick up wins on January 29th vs. Illinois, February 4th vs. Michigan St., or March 3rd vs. Wisconsin, they will be in the running.

Penn St. - Could the Nittany Lions make a Big 10 run? Taylor Battle is a very, very good player, and Stanley Pringle and Jamelle Cornley have been good secondary options offensively. There's nothing from their resume to suggest they can't be compeititive. So to answer the question... it's unlikely they'll make a serious tournament run, but they have the ability to steal a game or two from the tournament hopefuls of the conference.

Northwestern - Well... they beat Florida State... and they only lost @ Butler by four... maybe? Probably not. They're not talented enough t beat teams like Illinois and Michigan on a consistent basis, but like Penn St., they could steal a game or two.

Iowa - Got pounded by West Virginia and beat Kansas State by two, and lost to Boston College, which puts them solidly on the bubble... of the NIT.

Indiana - They're awful. Let's just leave it at that.

OUTLOOK: Four bids are likely, with Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State solidly in at the moment. Could a 5th team get in? Illinois could make a run, as could Michigan, but both are probably on the outside looking in right now. Minnesota hasn't been challenged yet. It depends a lot on the national picture, but if I had to guess right now, I'd say the Big 10 will probably just miss out on a 5th and get FOUR teams in the tournament.