I didn't get to watch as many games this weekend as I would've liked, but I did catch up on the important matchups on Tuesday, as well as the Coaches v. Cancer games and the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Here's some impressions on the teams I saw this week (not in any particular order):
Miami: When I saw this team against Memphis, I thought they were raw, unpolished, and somewhat limited offensively, but were definitely athletic and could be a solid team in the ACC. Then they lost to Rutgers. Anyway... Durand Scott is a talented offensive player, able to create his own shot and get to the line. Outside of him, there isn't a lot to offer offensively. Malcolm Grant has struggled shooting this year. Reggie Johnson has had a few solid games inside but nothing special. Otherwise, guys are either inconsistent or non-existent on offense. They held Memphis to 33% shooting, but that was probably more Memphis' inconsistencies on offense more than anything. The ACC is wide open this year, but Miami still may not finish in the top half of the conference.
Memphis: The Tigers brought in a highly touted freshman class this year, and so far the results have been good, if unspectacular. Josh Pastner has carried over elements of the dribble drive offense installed by Calipari a few years ago, and he gives his players a lot of freedom offensively. That's probably not the best thing for a team with so many young players playing key roles, but they've functioned fairly well offensively. They put up a lot of low percentage threes against Miami, but the ball movement was good and they got enough good looks to win. Wesley Witherspoon and Joe Jackson have been the most consistent offensive threats so far. Antonio Barton looked good on the break against Miami. Defensively, Memphis is active on the perimeter and forced Miami and LSU into low shooting percentages. This is a team that could mature into a top 10 team by the end of the year.
Kansas State: Last year's Elite 8 team relied on Pullen and Clemente, an athletic, physical frontline, and great defense to win games. They have all of that again, except Clemente is gone. That leaves Pullen at the point. I'm not sure that's the best decision in the world, as Pullen is more of a scorer than anything, but he creates offense for everyone else enough that it might work out. In the game against VT, Pullen was in foul trouble, so K-State had to go inside for much of their offense. Jamar Samuels had some nice moves inside and was able to get to the line consistently. The rest of the frontcourt is big and physical but they lack touch around the rim. K-State has struggled from the foul line as well. I think at some point this year, Pullen will be taken off the ball and Spradling will start at the point.
Virginia Tech: Expectations are high in Blacksburg this year, as VT returns their top 11 scorers from last year. Of course, this is a core that hasn't made the tournament the past 3 years, so sometimes returning all those players doesn't necessarily add up to significantly more success. The Hokies had a tremendous opportunity to make some national noise when they visited K-State on Tuesday, and they hung with the Wildcats for much of the game but were simply worn down by foul trouble in the frontcourt and physical play by K-State. Malcolm Delaney is their best player. He's not overly quick, but he is shifty and can get into the lane. He can also hit the outside shot. However, he's not a great ballhandler and not really a PG. VT's offense mainly consisted of him working to get into the lane and create offense for others. Dorenzo Hudson hit some outside shots, but otherwise VT needs to get scoring from somewhere else. They will win plenty of ACC games with just their defense and Delaney and Hudson scoring, but to get to the next level, their offense needs to get more dynamic.
Ohio State: Probably the best team I've seen so far this year. The big question for the Buckeyes this year was who would replace Turner's production. Ohio State hasn't seemed to have lost a step offensively. Sullinger adds a new dimension to the team. He's tall, big, and polished in the post. He opens up the perimeter for the rest of the team. That's a dangerous sign for opponents, because there's a lot of firepower on this Buckeyes squad. They have four guys that can all put up 25-30 points on any given night. They can score in both the halfcourt and in transition; that kind of versatility is rare in college basketball. They aren't particularly aggressive defensively, but they can be good when they want to be and they usually just run opponents off the floor anyway. They have two big weaknesses: lack of depth and lack of size. This is a team that is deserving of their top 5 ranking.
Florida: This is going to be an intriguing team. They return all 5 starters from last year's tournament team. Individually, these guys are pretty good. Vernon Macklin was a beast inside against Ohio State. Alex Tyus has been talked about in NBA camps. Chandler Parsons is a 4 with the skill set of a guard. Irving Walker and Kenny Boynton are streaky but can score in bunches at times. But for whatever reason, this team has had problems putting it all together over the past few years. They hung with and were probably better than Ohio State for the first half and parts of the 2nd, but couldn't put together an entire 40 minutes and fell apart once Ohio State started to apply some defensive pressure. They are still one of the two best teams in the SEC, but are they top 10 material? That still remains to be seen.
Butler: Well, losing Hayward made a big difference. They have no one offensively outside of Shelden Mack and Matt Howard. And when I mean no one, I mean not even a guy who can work off of that. They struggled to handle the UL pressure and did not shoot well from the field. Howard was battling foul trouble all night, which didn't help. They looked significantly better against Ball State, though. They are probably the favorites to win the Horizon League again this year, but this is not the Butler team we saw last year.
Louisville: One of the surprising teams of the week. They're long and athletic but very raw. They create a lot of their points off turnovers, and frustrated Butler into rushed, poor shots and turnovers all night long on Tuesday. They currently have 5 guys averaging double figures in points, so there's not one dominant scorer on the team. This could create problems when they face teams that can handle their pressure. Can they score consistently enough in the halfcourt to win that type of a game?
Illinois: The Illini were highly praised heading into the season, identified by many as a darkhorse in the Big Ten. The early verdict? Eh... probably not in the top tier of the conference, at least, not now. Sophs D. J. Richardson and Brandon Paul have improved offensively. The Mikes (Davis and Tisdale) form a good frontcourt, if not terribly physical. They're not a particularly aggressive defensive team, but they're not bad.
Texas: Raw, young team that likes to push the tempo, like against Illinois. Hamilton appeared to take the lead offensively, although he disappeared in the 2nd half against Pitt. Tristan Thompson is a handful in the paint. Cory Joseph was solid defensively but really a non-factor offensively. They can get secondary scoring from guys like Gary Johnson and J'Covan Brown. Outside of Balbay, this team is nothing special defensively. They're probably not as good as K-State, Baylor, or KU, but could be right around Missouri's level. They won't have the stars they did last year, so they are more likely to stick together and not fall apart like last year. At least, I don't think so.
Pittsburgh: This is a team full of under-recruited players with a chip on their shoulder, so don't expect a lot of their games to be pretty. Gibbs had a good tournament; Wanamaker was so-so. They got good contributions from the starting frontline and good minutes off the bench from Travon Woodall. This is a team that will slow the tempo, play physical defense, and attempt to score just enough points to win. Sounds a lot like K-State, except they don't have anyone as dynamic as Pullen on the outside (but similar type frontline).
Maryland: Didn't see a lot of them this weekend, but it can be difficult to get a read on a team that lost to the #4 team in the land (Pitt) and to a team that shot 52% from three (Illinois). All 5 starters played 26 or more minutes in both CvC games, so there's not a lot of depth here. Jordan Williams was strong offensively. They got good offensive contributions from a variety of guys but at the end, just couldn't get enough stops to win games. They got heavily outrebounded against Pitt but held their own against a smaller frontline in Illinois.
Minnesota: Not overly talented offensively, but they have enough weapons to get the job done. Al Nolen runs the point well and can get to the bucket and the line. The strength is inside, where Ralph Sampson III, Colton Iverson, and Trevor Mbakwe (who emerged this weekend) can control the paint. Granted, they played two undersized teams in UNC and WVU, but they still played well. On the downside, they don't really have a 3 pt threat other than Hoffarber, and WVU's 1-3-1 zone gave them fits in the 2nd half. This is probably a tournament team, but they'll be in a loaded division so they may not have as good a record as they actually are.
West Virginia: Think last year's team, except even rougher around the edges. Casey Mitchell is the most improved player I've seen so far. Who knew this guy would take over the offensive reins from DeSean Butler as definably as he has? Excellent shooter, created his own shot at times. Unfortunately, nobody else has emerged as a scoring threat. Kevin Jones doesn't look as comfortable without Butler and Ebanks drawing attention away from him. They held their own inside but are still undersized, as Iverson and Mbakwe for Minnesota showed. Otherwise, this is an experienced, versatile, if somewhat under talented team. Oh, and they still can't shoot free throws.
Vanderbilt: The Commodores played teams with two distinct styles this weekend. The first game was against a physical WVU team, and they struggled from the field. Against a quicker, more aggressive, but thinner frontline in UNC, Vandy succeeded. Jeffery Taylor and Festus Ezeli were much more effective inside and the team shot better overall, especially from 3 in the first half when they had the inside-outside game going very well. This team probably isn't as good as UF or UK but will be in that 2nd tier level in the SEC and should compete for a tournament spot.
North Carolina: Easily the disappointment of the week. North Carolina looks like a team that doesn't really have a style. They're not fast enough to run the break exceedingly well, but they have major problems executing in the halfcourt. Harrison Barnes, and Zeller, to a lesser extent, are the only ones that can really create their own shot on the offensive end. Everyone else looks lost for the most part. They didn't shoot well either against Minn or Vandy and they had a ton of turnovers against Vandy. The frontline lacks depth, and neither Drew nor Marshall look particularly comfortable at the point. What's more, I thought Barnes would step up and be an offensive leader, but he appears way too passive at this stage in his career to put a team on his back. Not a lot of good signs from UNC this week. The upside? Nobody else (other than Duke) in the ACC has looked particularly impressive, so conference wins will be up for grabs.
And now for Monday's games... Feast Week starts with quarterfinal action from the Maui Invitational and semifinals of the CBE Classic. We'll begin with a top 25 matchup from Kansas City:
Game of the Night
Kansas St. v. Gonzaga (Kansas St., CBE Classic semis)
I talked about K-State earlier in this blog post. I'm not really sure what to think of this Wildcats team right now. They're 3-0, with a good win over VT, but they did struggle against Presbyterian and are playing against a Bulldogs team that is probably the best offense they have faced to date this year. Gonzaga has had their own issues, falling at home to San Diego St. (although admittedly, SDSU will be one of the best teams in a good MWC this year). Neither team has really played to expectations so far this year. The key for the Zags will be for someone other than Gray to step up on offense. K-State wore down VT with size and physical defense, and the same will happen to Gonzaga unless Sacre or Elias Harris play a bigger role offensively. On the other end, Gonzaga will likely play a 2-3 zone, and that seemed to handle K-State's bigs pretty well when VT used it. Will that be enough to keep K-State out of the paint?
Other games:
CBE Classic Semis: Duke v. Marquette - The #1 team in the land cannot look past this game. Marquette doesn't have the talent they had a couple of years ago, but they'll be well coached and can pull off an upset if the Blue Devils aren't ready for it.
Maui Invitational Quarters: Wichita St. v. UConn could be a very entertaining game. Otherwise, unless one of the underdogs plays well, we could have three relatively uneventful other quarterfinal matchups.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Daily Preview: November 18th, 2010
I DVR'ed a lot of Tuesday's games since I didn't get a chance to see much of them. I'll blog about Tuesday's games in much more detail when I watch them this weekend. It's always tough to tell in these early games just how good these teams are, since we don't have much of a barometer to measure them by. It will likely take a month or so (or longer) to really get a feel for many of these teams, and like I mentioned on Sunday night, there's a big difference between the way college basketball teams play in November and the way they play in March. This is especially true in today's college basketball when there is so much turnover in programs and so many new pieces entering each year. With that said, here's Thursday's top games, and it consists of one tournament: The 2K Sports Coaches v. Cancer semifinals.
Game of the Night:
Illinois v. Texas (Coaches v. Cancer semis)
The Illini have been a trendy underdog to pick in the Big Ten this year. Almost all the key pieces return, including Big 10 POY candidate Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and a couple of talented sophs in D. J. Richardson and Brandon Paul. Add in another good recruiting class and there's reason to get excited for basketball again in Champaign. Texas, meanwhile, seems to be one of those programs that recruits well but can't seem to get the chemistry or continuity to breed any sort of long-term success. Three NBA draft picks (Avery Bradley, Damion James, Dexter Pittman) left the program after last year, leaving the team in the hands of a group of talented, yet inexperienced freshman and sophomores and a bunch of role players. From the bit of Texas that I saw, they are definitely talented but still very raw on the offensive end. It will be interesting to see how the Longhorns perform against a team that matches up better with them athletically.
Other games:
Pitt v. Maryland (CvC semis): Both teams had early season scares. Pitt will be the favorite in this game, but do they have anyone to match up Jordan Williams in the post?
Puerto Rico Tip-Off 1st Round: Hofstra v. UNC, Davidson v. West Virginia, Nebraska v. Vanderbilt, W. Kentucky v. Minnesota
There should be some good semifinal matchups, but the first rounders appear to have 4 heavy favorites. Doesn't mean there can't be some good games, though.
Game of the Night:
Illinois v. Texas (Coaches v. Cancer semis)
The Illini have been a trendy underdog to pick in the Big Ten this year. Almost all the key pieces return, including Big 10 POY candidate Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and a couple of talented sophs in D. J. Richardson and Brandon Paul. Add in another good recruiting class and there's reason to get excited for basketball again in Champaign. Texas, meanwhile, seems to be one of those programs that recruits well but can't seem to get the chemistry or continuity to breed any sort of long-term success. Three NBA draft picks (Avery Bradley, Damion James, Dexter Pittman) left the program after last year, leaving the team in the hands of a group of talented, yet inexperienced freshman and sophomores and a bunch of role players. From the bit of Texas that I saw, they are definitely talented but still very raw on the offensive end. It will be interesting to see how the Longhorns perform against a team that matches up better with them athletically.
Other games:
Pitt v. Maryland (CvC semis): Both teams had early season scares. Pitt will be the favorite in this game, but do they have anyone to match up Jordan Williams in the post?
Puerto Rico Tip-Off 1st Round: Hofstra v. UNC, Davidson v. West Virginia, Nebraska v. Vanderbilt, W. Kentucky v. Minnesota
There should be some good semifinal matchups, but the first rounders appear to have 4 heavy favorites. Doesn't mean there can't be some good games, though.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Daily Preview: November 16th, 2010
The first daily preview of the college basketball season features ESPN's 24 hour marathon of college basketball, starting at midnight on Tuesday and continuing until midnight on Wednesday. Obviously, not every game can be a premier matchup, but the majority of the games feature major college programs and a few match up a couple of ranked teams. In addition, the NIT Preseason Tip-Off begins tonight, with the first two rounds taking place from Monday through Wednesday night and the finals on Wednesday and Friday night of next week.
Similar to last year, I'll list a Game of the Night and then a couple of other games I'm looking forward to.
Tuesday, Nov. 16th, 2010
Game of the Night: Virginia Tech Hokies @ Kansas St. Wildcats
There is a top 10 matchup on the slate for Friday, But I personally think this is the more intriguing matchup. Surprised to see VT playing a ranked team out of conference? Same here. Seth Greenberg's Hokies finally figured out it might be a good idea to schedule some challenging OOC games since 8-8 in the ACC with a cupcake non-conference isn't good enough to go dancing. Thing is, the Hokies should be good enough to make it this year regardless of schedule. They return their top 11 scorers, including ACC POY contender Malcolm Delaney. If Tech can find a consistent third scorer to supplement Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson, this Hokies team is very capable of knocking off a highly ranked Kansas St. team.
The Wildcats certainly lived up to expectations last year, reaching the Elite Eight and falling to eventual runners up Butler. Despite losing Denis Clemente and Dominique Sutton, the Wildcats should be better than last year, as they return Jacob Pullen, Curtis Kelly, Jamar Samuels, and a host of sophomores and freshman who should make great strides this year. Kansas St. should be tough defensively again and have enough offensive weapons to make a long run into the tournament. The big question... how will Pullen fare running the point? Will others be able to provide consistent scoring? If they can get consistent scoring from sources and not rely on Pullen to create the entire offense, this could be a NC contender.
Other Games:
Ohio St. Buckeyes @ Florida Gators
Two preseason top 10 teams that both return large portions of last year's squads. Florida returns all five starters, and Ohio State returns all but Evan Turner and brings in an excellent recruiting class to supplement. Both teams have questions, though. Florida relies too much on the three, especially from star guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. Can they find Alex Tyus consistent looks inside? Ohio State struggled without Turner in the lineup last year. Will someone step up and take over as the go-to guy offensively? There's reason to believe true frosh Jared Sullinger could be that man.
San Diego St @ Gonzaga: This is the best Zags team in recent memory, but the Aztecs return four double-digit scorers from last year's NCAA Tournament team. Definitely a trap game for the Zags.
Butler @ Louisville: Good road test for the Bulldogs. The Cardinals have a lot of holes but will pressure and attack defensively.
South Carolina @ Michigan St.: Not the most difficult of matchups for the Spartans, but should be fun to watch anyway.
Similar to last year, I'll list a Game of the Night and then a couple of other games I'm looking forward to.
Tuesday, Nov. 16th, 2010
Game of the Night: Virginia Tech Hokies @ Kansas St. Wildcats
There is a top 10 matchup on the slate for Friday, But I personally think this is the more intriguing matchup. Surprised to see VT playing a ranked team out of conference? Same here. Seth Greenberg's Hokies finally figured out it might be a good idea to schedule some challenging OOC games since 8-8 in the ACC with a cupcake non-conference isn't good enough to go dancing. Thing is, the Hokies should be good enough to make it this year regardless of schedule. They return their top 11 scorers, including ACC POY contender Malcolm Delaney. If Tech can find a consistent third scorer to supplement Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson, this Hokies team is very capable of knocking off a highly ranked Kansas St. team.
The Wildcats certainly lived up to expectations last year, reaching the Elite Eight and falling to eventual runners up Butler. Despite losing Denis Clemente and Dominique Sutton, the Wildcats should be better than last year, as they return Jacob Pullen, Curtis Kelly, Jamar Samuels, and a host of sophomores and freshman who should make great strides this year. Kansas St. should be tough defensively again and have enough offensive weapons to make a long run into the tournament. The big question... how will Pullen fare running the point? Will others be able to provide consistent scoring? If they can get consistent scoring from sources and not rely on Pullen to create the entire offense, this could be a NC contender.
Other Games:
Ohio St. Buckeyes @ Florida Gators
Two preseason top 10 teams that both return large portions of last year's squads. Florida returns all five starters, and Ohio State returns all but Evan Turner and brings in an excellent recruiting class to supplement. Both teams have questions, though. Florida relies too much on the three, especially from star guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. Can they find Alex Tyus consistent looks inside? Ohio State struggled without Turner in the lineup last year. Will someone step up and take over as the go-to guy offensively? There's reason to believe true frosh Jared Sullinger could be that man.
San Diego St @ Gonzaga: This is the best Zags team in recent memory, but the Aztecs return four double-digit scorers from last year's NCAA Tournament team. Definitely a trap game for the Zags.
Butler @ Louisville: Good road test for the Bulldogs. The Cardinals have a lot of holes but will pressure and attack defensively.
South Carolina @ Michigan St.: Not the most difficult of matchups for the Spartans, but should be fun to watch anyway.
2010-11 College Basketball: No Expectations
In preparation for this college basketball season, I planned it all out. I was going to do full fledged conference previews, with analysis for each team. I was going to include sections on preseason games to watch for, rank the conferences, teams, create a pre-season bubble watch and bracket. I was going all out this year.
Then life happened. I am not prepared for this season.
But in realizing this, I think this is a better mindset to enter the season with than I have in previous years. We tend to over-analyze everything in sports nowadays. Every win and loss is magnified to the point where we lose perspective. We immediately assume one win or loss means the difference between a championship and last place. We forget that teams change over the course of the season. Some teams mature and grow; others fall apart. Some teams are figured out and begin to stumble as a result; others catch fire at opportune times and ride it through the tournament. The way a team looks in mid-November is usually different from the way a team looks in March.
That last sentence was never more true than last year. Duke and Butler certainly were not the two best teams in the country last fall. But they both ended up in the championship game because they came together at just the right time (and had a few breaks go their way). That's how most seasons end up. Rarely is there a year where a great team or teams run wire-to-wire and win it all, especially now with the abundance of quality basketball programs and TV coverage. The talent is much more spread out and as a result, there is significantly more parity. That makes it difficult to predict who will be the best team in November, much less come March.
As a result, I will not be making preseason predictions this year. No conference rankings. No brackets. No Final Four or National Champion predictions. I'm going to go into this season with an open mind. I'm going to watch as many games as I can, starting with this week and the college basketball marathon coming up on Tuesday. I'll hype up games, post impressions, discuss teams I like and teams I don't like, do everything I used to. Only this time, there will be no expectations.
Then life happened. I am not prepared for this season.
But in realizing this, I think this is a better mindset to enter the season with than I have in previous years. We tend to over-analyze everything in sports nowadays. Every win and loss is magnified to the point where we lose perspective. We immediately assume one win or loss means the difference between a championship and last place. We forget that teams change over the course of the season. Some teams mature and grow; others fall apart. Some teams are figured out and begin to stumble as a result; others catch fire at opportune times and ride it through the tournament. The way a team looks in mid-November is usually different from the way a team looks in March.
That last sentence was never more true than last year. Duke and Butler certainly were not the two best teams in the country last fall. But they both ended up in the championship game because they came together at just the right time (and had a few breaks go their way). That's how most seasons end up. Rarely is there a year where a great team or teams run wire-to-wire and win it all, especially now with the abundance of quality basketball programs and TV coverage. The talent is much more spread out and as a result, there is significantly more parity. That makes it difficult to predict who will be the best team in November, much less come March.
As a result, I will not be making preseason predictions this year. No conference rankings. No brackets. No Final Four or National Champion predictions. I'm going to go into this season with an open mind. I'm going to watch as many games as I can, starting with this week and the college basketball marathon coming up on Tuesday. I'll hype up games, post impressions, discuss teams I like and teams I don't like, do everything I used to. Only this time, there will be no expectations.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Regional Final picks: East Region
After all the craziness these past two rounds have brought us, there is one thing I can say for certain:
This is Kentucky's tournament to lose.
Coming from a guy who has been somewhat down on UK all year, I'm telling you. Kentucky is the best, most talented team left in this tournament, and with Onuaku out, it really isn't all that close. They have four guys on their team that can all go off for 25+ points in a game. Nobody else has more than three (and that team is Duke, who only really has three scorers). They have more size and are quicker than anyone else left. They're deep, talented, and they have a coach on the sideline who knows how to win (or at least get guys who can win to play together).
What does any of this mean? Absolutely nothing.
This tournament has been one of the craziest in recent memory. What was easily the worst group of 2, 3, and 4 seeds in this past decade has been ravaged, leaving multiple cinderellas and several double digit seeds left standing. If there's a year where being the favorite doesn't count for anything, it's 2009-2010. With that said, here are my picks for the East region.
Game 1 (7:27 PM, CBS): 2 WVU vs. 11 Washington
UW has had an interesting road to this position. Easily one of the biggest underachievers during the regular season, the Huskies have come back in the spring with a vengeance, running through the Pac-10 tournament and taking out two higher seeds in the tournament. This Husky backcourt is very dangerous, and Qunicy Pondexter has been outstanding all year long.
That being said...
Washington was matched up against two small teams who were primarily perimeter oriented. UW took advantage of superior speed and ran both teams into the ground. It won't be so easy with West Virginia, who poses a different threat. West Virginia isn't as quick as Washington, either, but they will possess size advantages in a number of areas, particularly the wings, where guys like Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones, excellent rebounders during the season, will have height advantages. Washington will have to play a slower, more physical style of basketball and grind out a victory. West Virginia isn't a sexy basketball team, but they've won 29 games for a reason. If Washington can speed up the game, turn West Virginia over, and make it a shootout, they can get the upper hand. UW is not a team that's used to or has really been successful against this type of style, though. WVU wins it.
PICK: WVU 72, Washington 65
Game 2 (9:57 PM, CBS): 1 Kentucky vs. 12 Cornell
If there's one game where I have a serious rooting preference other than the Purdue game, it's this one. I'm just gonna get it out there: I despise Kentucky. I hate that slimeball of a coach John Calipari. I think DeMarcus Cousins is a thug and a lazy bum. I don't particularly care for their fans or the fact that they haven't paid their dues over time to get to where they are. I don't trust that this team hasn't already broken some NCAA sanctions. But they're darn good. And this causes problems.
I had UK going out in the Sweet 16. I really thought Wisconsin would give them a run for their money with their slow, physical play. But Wisconsin didn't make it through. Instead, it's an Ivy League school who had never won a game in the tournament before this season and is the first team since Penn in 1978 and 1979 to make the Sweet 16. And this team... they're darn good too. For those of you who care, Cornell averaged 1.65 points per possession against Wisconsin. That's really good. As in, really really really good. Against a pretty darn good defense in Wisconsin, no less. Wisconsin shot 49% from the field and lost by 18. Cornell dropped 87 on a team that usually gives up 60. This is no cinderella. This Big Red team is legit.
So that's why I'm doing this. Maybe it's because I really don't want to see UK win it all this year. Maybe it's because I didn't pick Cornell for two straight rounds and I'm trying to make up these past mistakes. Or maybe it's because Cornell has the size and the offense to keep up with Kentucky (not speed-wise, but in general). Maybe... just maybe... magic will happen once again.
And my bracket's screwed anyway, so what the heck.
PICK: Cornell 75, Kentucky 73
This is Kentucky's tournament to lose.
Coming from a guy who has been somewhat down on UK all year, I'm telling you. Kentucky is the best, most talented team left in this tournament, and with Onuaku out, it really isn't all that close. They have four guys on their team that can all go off for 25+ points in a game. Nobody else has more than three (and that team is Duke, who only really has three scorers). They have more size and are quicker than anyone else left. They're deep, talented, and they have a coach on the sideline who knows how to win (or at least get guys who can win to play together).
What does any of this mean? Absolutely nothing.
This tournament has been one of the craziest in recent memory. What was easily the worst group of 2, 3, and 4 seeds in this past decade has been ravaged, leaving multiple cinderellas and several double digit seeds left standing. If there's a year where being the favorite doesn't count for anything, it's 2009-2010. With that said, here are my picks for the East region.
Game 1 (7:27 PM, CBS): 2 WVU vs. 11 Washington
UW has had an interesting road to this position. Easily one of the biggest underachievers during the regular season, the Huskies have come back in the spring with a vengeance, running through the Pac-10 tournament and taking out two higher seeds in the tournament. This Husky backcourt is very dangerous, and Qunicy Pondexter has been outstanding all year long.
That being said...
Washington was matched up against two small teams who were primarily perimeter oriented. UW took advantage of superior speed and ran both teams into the ground. It won't be so easy with West Virginia, who poses a different threat. West Virginia isn't as quick as Washington, either, but they will possess size advantages in a number of areas, particularly the wings, where guys like Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones, excellent rebounders during the season, will have height advantages. Washington will have to play a slower, more physical style of basketball and grind out a victory. West Virginia isn't a sexy basketball team, but they've won 29 games for a reason. If Washington can speed up the game, turn West Virginia over, and make it a shootout, they can get the upper hand. UW is not a team that's used to or has really been successful against this type of style, though. WVU wins it.
PICK: WVU 72, Washington 65
Game 2 (9:57 PM, CBS): 1 Kentucky vs. 12 Cornell
If there's one game where I have a serious rooting preference other than the Purdue game, it's this one. I'm just gonna get it out there: I despise Kentucky. I hate that slimeball of a coach John Calipari. I think DeMarcus Cousins is a thug and a lazy bum. I don't particularly care for their fans or the fact that they haven't paid their dues over time to get to where they are. I don't trust that this team hasn't already broken some NCAA sanctions. But they're darn good. And this causes problems.
I had UK going out in the Sweet 16. I really thought Wisconsin would give them a run for their money with their slow, physical play. But Wisconsin didn't make it through. Instead, it's an Ivy League school who had never won a game in the tournament before this season and is the first team since Penn in 1978 and 1979 to make the Sweet 16. And this team... they're darn good too. For those of you who care, Cornell averaged 1.65 points per possession against Wisconsin. That's really good. As in, really really really good. Against a pretty darn good defense in Wisconsin, no less. Wisconsin shot 49% from the field and lost by 18. Cornell dropped 87 on a team that usually gives up 60. This is no cinderella. This Big Red team is legit.
So that's why I'm doing this. Maybe it's because I really don't want to see UK win it all this year. Maybe it's because I didn't pick Cornell for two straight rounds and I'm trying to make up these past mistakes. Or maybe it's because Cornell has the size and the offense to keep up with Kentucky (not speed-wise, but in general). Maybe... just maybe... magic will happen once again.
And my bracket's screwed anyway, so what the heck.
PICK: Cornell 75, Kentucky 73
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Second Round Recap
Best Game: Gotta go with the Michigan State/Maryland finish. The game itself was led by Michigan State most of the way, even while losing both Chris Allen and Kalin Lucas to injuries. Durrell Summers was on fire, scoring 26 points on 6 of 8 shooting from three. Maryland began to chip away at the 5 point Michigan State lead with 8 minutes left, eventually taking the lead with 40 seconds left. A Draymond Green jumper made it 82-81 with 22 seconds to play. Greivis Vazquez did what he does best, driving to his right and hitting a teardrop layup with 6 seconds remaining. Green brought the ball up the court and threw it to Korie Lucious, almost hitting Delvon Roe in the head in the process. Lucious put up a three as time expired and connected, sending Sparty Nation into a frenzy. Easily the best finish of the tournament thus far.
Best Upset: Cornell looked awfully impressive in a win over Wisconsin, but I can't go against the Panthers of Northern Iowa taking out the overall #1 seed Kansas. It was one of those games where you just kept waiting for Kansas to snap out of it and take over, but it never happened. UNI led handedly most of the way until the late minutes when the KU pressure forced several UNI turnovers. Kansas worked the defecit to 1 with 40 seconds left and looked poised to take the game, until a quick UNI break of the press left Ali Farokhmanesh with the ball at the 3 point line. Despite there being around 25 seconds left on the shot clock and 35 on the game clock, Ali put up the three anyway... and hit it! After some free throws to seal the deal, the Panthers had shocked the college basketball world. Kansas, usually a strong outside shooting team, only made 6 threes in 23 attempts. Sherron Collins ended up 4 for 15 from the field and 0 of 6 from three. Farokhmanesh led UNI with 16 points on 4 of 10 from three. UNI takes on Michigan State in the Midwest Regional Semis.
Best Performance: Several guys share this award. In the first 2nd round game of the tournament, Omar Samhan manhandled the small Villanova frontcourt with 32 points and 7 rebounds, leading St. Mary's into the Sweet 16. Many thought it would be Jimmer Time in Oklahoma City for a 2nd straight game, but it was Jacob Time instead, as in Jacob Pullen. Pullen had 7 threes and was 11 for 11 at the line for 34 total points, as Kansas State won handedly over BYU 84-72. And Wesley Johnson scored from all over the floor and showcased his athleticism, scoring 31 and grabbing 14 boards as Syracuse steamrolled Gonzaga.
Upset that didn't happen: In a battle of mid-majors, Murray State was unable to keep Cinderella alive (at least for them), coming up two points short against Butler 54-52. The game was close the entire way, and a Gordon Hayward deflection prevented the Racers from getting a game tying or game winning shot off before time expired. The Bulldogs had good balance, with four guys in double figures doing most of the scoring work. Butler takes on Syracuse in the Sweet 16.
Game that got lost in the mix: Last year, Pitt took out Xavier in the Sweet 16. This year, Xavier returned the favor in the 2nd round, beating the Panthers 71-68. Jordan Crawford had 27 points to lead the Musketeers, who reached the Sweet 16 for the third straight time. Xavier, along with Michigan State, are the only two teams to reach this level for each of the past three seasons.
Picks: Coming this week!
Best Upset: Cornell looked awfully impressive in a win over Wisconsin, but I can't go against the Panthers of Northern Iowa taking out the overall #1 seed Kansas. It was one of those games where you just kept waiting for Kansas to snap out of it and take over, but it never happened. UNI led handedly most of the way until the late minutes when the KU pressure forced several UNI turnovers. Kansas worked the defecit to 1 with 40 seconds left and looked poised to take the game, until a quick UNI break of the press left Ali Farokhmanesh with the ball at the 3 point line. Despite there being around 25 seconds left on the shot clock and 35 on the game clock, Ali put up the three anyway... and hit it! After some free throws to seal the deal, the Panthers had shocked the college basketball world. Kansas, usually a strong outside shooting team, only made 6 threes in 23 attempts. Sherron Collins ended up 4 for 15 from the field and 0 of 6 from three. Farokhmanesh led UNI with 16 points on 4 of 10 from three. UNI takes on Michigan State in the Midwest Regional Semis.
Best Performance: Several guys share this award. In the first 2nd round game of the tournament, Omar Samhan manhandled the small Villanova frontcourt with 32 points and 7 rebounds, leading St. Mary's into the Sweet 16. Many thought it would be Jimmer Time in Oklahoma City for a 2nd straight game, but it was Jacob Time instead, as in Jacob Pullen. Pullen had 7 threes and was 11 for 11 at the line for 34 total points, as Kansas State won handedly over BYU 84-72. And Wesley Johnson scored from all over the floor and showcased his athleticism, scoring 31 and grabbing 14 boards as Syracuse steamrolled Gonzaga.
Upset that didn't happen: In a battle of mid-majors, Murray State was unable to keep Cinderella alive (at least for them), coming up two points short against Butler 54-52. The game was close the entire way, and a Gordon Hayward deflection prevented the Racers from getting a game tying or game winning shot off before time expired. The Bulldogs had good balance, with four guys in double figures doing most of the scoring work. Butler takes on Syracuse in the Sweet 16.
Game that got lost in the mix: Last year, Pitt took out Xavier in the Sweet 16. This year, Xavier returned the favor in the 2nd round, beating the Panthers 71-68. Jordan Crawford had 27 points to lead the Musketeers, who reached the Sweet 16 for the third straight time. Xavier, along with Michigan State, are the only two teams to reach this level for each of the past three seasons.
Picks: Coming this week!
Friday, March 19, 2010
Friday, March 19th: Night Game Recaps
Best Game: In a slate of blowouts, two games stood out. Georgia Tech came back from a halftime defecit and shot 24 of 25 from the line to beat out Oklahoma State 64-59. James Anderson struggled mightily, going 3-11 from the floor and turning the ball over in the Cowboys' last possession. Meanwhile, Michigan State appeared to have their game comfortably in hand at halftime, but New Mexico State quickly erased the defecit, and the two teams traded buckets until the final possession. A key lane violation turned a two point defecit into three for New Mexico State, and two 3 point attempts fell short as time expired and the Spartans survived.
Best Performance: Jordan Williams was a monster on the glass for Maryland, claiming 17 rebounds and 21 points as the Terps took out a pesky Houston team, 89-77. Clinging to a two point lead at halftime, Maryland took over offensively early in the 2nd half and cruised to a relatively easy victory. Maryland had a 47-27 edge on the glass, aided by Williams' performance.
Upset that didn't happen: New Mexico State's loss was the closest thing to an upset in the nightcap of games. The other four games with 1 through 5 seeds all were double digit victories for the top seeds.
Game that got lost in the mix: Gonzaga handled a good Florida State team pretty easily, jumping out to a 35-19 lead at halftime. The Seminoles chipped away at the lead and brought it to within 5 with two and a half minutes left, but Gonzaga made 8 of their last ten free throws to seal the deal. The Zags made the most of their possessions, hitting as many shots from the field as Florida State but in 17 fewer attempts.
Early Sunday Picks:
Syracuse over Gonzaga (The Zags will not score as easily from the field as they did today... and Cuse will not struggle from the field as much as FSU did)
Ohio State over Georgia Tech (Beware though... the Yellow Jackets have the talent and the size to pull off the upset here)
Maryland over Michigan State (State will find offensive rebounds will not come as easily as they usually do with Williams patrolling the glass)
WVU over Missouri (Another possible upset... watch to see how a guard-deficient Mountaineer team handles the Mizzou press)
Wisconsin over Cornell (Sticking to my guns despite their respective performances today)
Pitt over Xavier
Purdue over Texas A&M (Glad my Boilers responded well today. Sunday will be a much more difficult task, however)
Duke over Cal (I should pick at least one upset today, but I'm not sure I really like any of the matchups. If I had to choose one, I'd say Mizzou over WVU, but even that is a stretch)
Best Performance: Jordan Williams was a monster on the glass for Maryland, claiming 17 rebounds and 21 points as the Terps took out a pesky Houston team, 89-77. Clinging to a two point lead at halftime, Maryland took over offensively early in the 2nd half and cruised to a relatively easy victory. Maryland had a 47-27 edge on the glass, aided by Williams' performance.
Upset that didn't happen: New Mexico State's loss was the closest thing to an upset in the nightcap of games. The other four games with 1 through 5 seeds all were double digit victories for the top seeds.
Game that got lost in the mix: Gonzaga handled a good Florida State team pretty easily, jumping out to a 35-19 lead at halftime. The Seminoles chipped away at the lead and brought it to within 5 with two and a half minutes left, but Gonzaga made 8 of their last ten free throws to seal the deal. The Zags made the most of their possessions, hitting as many shots from the field as Florida State but in 17 fewer attempts.
Early Sunday Picks:
Syracuse over Gonzaga (The Zags will not score as easily from the field as they did today... and Cuse will not struggle from the field as much as FSU did)
Ohio State over Georgia Tech (Beware though... the Yellow Jackets have the talent and the size to pull off the upset here)
Maryland over Michigan State (State will find offensive rebounds will not come as easily as they usually do with Williams patrolling the glass)
WVU over Missouri (Another possible upset... watch to see how a guard-deficient Mountaineer team handles the Mizzou press)
Wisconsin over Cornell (Sticking to my guns despite their respective performances today)
Pitt over Xavier
Purdue over Texas A&M (Glad my Boilers responded well today. Sunday will be a much more difficult task, however)
Duke over Cal (I should pick at least one upset today, but I'm not sure I really like any of the matchups. If I had to choose one, I'd say Mizzou over WVU, but even that is a stretch)
Friday, March 19th: Day Game Recaps
Best Game: After all the great games yesterday, this afternoon was a bit of a letdown. Almost by default, the Wofford-Wisconsin game takes this one. The Badgers, up 8 at halftime, appeared to have the game under control. But Wofford made up the difference early in the 2nd half and the two teams traded buckets the rest of the way. In the end, Jon Leuer's 16 footer and subsequent forcing of a turnover gave Wisconsin the victory. This was a pretty ugly game overall, so it's kind of sad this was the best game of the day, but it was at least close.
Best Performance: I'm going to give this one to the entire Cornell team, who took the lead in the first three minutes of the first half and never looked back. The Big Red scored on Temple early and often, putting up 78 on the Owls and making Temple's vaunted half court defense look very, very pedestrian. Louis Dale, Ryan Wittman, and Jeff Foote did most of the scoring for Cornell. Meanwhile, Temple goes out early in what I think was a very disappointing showing for them, despite the overall talent of Cornell.
Upset that didn't happen: Siena played Purdue neck and neck for the 1st half, but the Boilers came out on fire to start the 2nd and held off a late Saint rally to win 72-64. You can look at this game from two angles. One, Purdue clearly dominated most of the 2nd half and essentially built too big of a lead for Siena to take back. However, the Saints stormed back late in the 2nd and actually were in a pretty good position to win that game, even though they never actually took the lead. They had Purdue on the ropes late, but clutch free throw shooting gave the Boilers the victory.
Games that got lost in the mix: Missouri gave Clemson all kinds of fits with their full court press, forcing 20 Clemson turnovers in their 86-78 win. Also, Xavier outlasted Minnesota in a slow, physical game, 65-54.
Exciting games left tonight: Right now Oklahoma State leads Georgia Tech by 5 at the half, but the rest of the games going on are double digit leads. On the late night cap, Louisville-Cal looks to be entertaining, and there's something intriguing about the Syracuse-Vermont matchup, even though it won't likely be very close.
Best Performance: I'm going to give this one to the entire Cornell team, who took the lead in the first three minutes of the first half and never looked back. The Big Red scored on Temple early and often, putting up 78 on the Owls and making Temple's vaunted half court defense look very, very pedestrian. Louis Dale, Ryan Wittman, and Jeff Foote did most of the scoring for Cornell. Meanwhile, Temple goes out early in what I think was a very disappointing showing for them, despite the overall talent of Cornell.
Upset that didn't happen: Siena played Purdue neck and neck for the 1st half, but the Boilers came out on fire to start the 2nd and held off a late Saint rally to win 72-64. You can look at this game from two angles. One, Purdue clearly dominated most of the 2nd half and essentially built too big of a lead for Siena to take back. However, the Saints stormed back late in the 2nd and actually were in a pretty good position to win that game, even though they never actually took the lead. They had Purdue on the ropes late, but clutch free throw shooting gave the Boilers the victory.
Games that got lost in the mix: Missouri gave Clemson all kinds of fits with their full court press, forcing 20 Clemson turnovers in their 86-78 win. Also, Xavier outlasted Minnesota in a slow, physical game, 65-54.
Exciting games left tonight: Right now Oklahoma State leads Georgia Tech by 5 at the half, but the rest of the games going on are double digit leads. On the late night cap, Louisville-Cal looks to be entertaining, and there's something intriguing about the Syracuse-Vermont matchup, even though it won't likely be very close.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Thursday, March 18th: Night Game Recaps
Best Game: Can't go wrong with the Wake Forest-Texas game between two pretty evenly matched teams. For Texas, the final OT period seemed fitting for the way this season has gone. They jumped out to a 7 point lead in the first two minutes of the period, only to watch Wake chip away at it, until Ishamel Smith's jumper with a couple of seconds left seal the deal for the Demon Deacons. The Horns have a lot of growing to do this offseason. As for Wake, the dream remains alive, but they have an extremely tough test ahead of them in the 1 seed Kentucky, who drilled ETSU today to advance easily into the 2nd round.
Best Performance: Difficult to go against Armon Bassett's 32 points on 9-17 shooting, 5-10 from three, and 9-10 from the line. Ohio scored early and often against Georgetown, leading comfortably for the final 30 minutes of the game to beat the Hoyas by 14. Yes, I said led for three quarters of the game. The 14 seed. Over the 3 seed. I knew Georgetown was streaky, but not like this. Hats off to the Bobcats, though. The 9th seed in the MAC found their way into the tournament via the auto bid and have certainly made the most of it so far.
Upset that didn't happen: There were a couple tonight, as Montana gave New Mexico all it could handle before falling by 5 to the Lobos. But I'll go with San Diego State, who matched Tennessee bucket for bucket at the end but couldn't come up with that one last shot to knock out the Vols. Tennessee moves into the next round should thank their lucky stars that G-Town is gone (not that Ohio is going to be a cakewalk, but just saying).
Game that got lost in the mix: Those of you who stayed up to watch the late game almost got a thriller at the end. New Mexico seemed to have the game in hand about halfway through the 2nd half, but Montana wasn't having any of it. Montana was able to get it within one but was unable to overtake the Lobos, eventually losing 62-57. Brian Qvale had 26 for the Grizzlies. New Mexico advances to play Washington, who upsetted the 6 seed Marquette on Quincy Pondexter's leaner to give the Huskies an 80-78 victory.
Early Saturday picks:
St. Mary's over Villanova (same as before... nothing Nova did convinced me this game is gonna turn out any different than I expect)
Butler over Murray State (maybe it's time to stop hating on the Bulldogs and believe they're for real)
Tennessee over Ohio
Kansas over Northern Iowa (KU looked like they were sleepwalking through their game and still easily won... I know it was vs. the 16 seed, but UNI should still be scared)
Baylor over ODU (Although I'm thinking that if Tweety Carter has more games like this, Baylor isn't going anywhere in this tournament)
Washington over New Mexico (If I'm going to try and cash in on the hot hand, might as well do it here. If this is the Washington team we expected back in November, then they're sorely underseeded at 11. And that makes them VERY dangerous)
Kansas State over BYU (But I'm not ruling out a 45 point performance by Jimmer and a BYU win)
Kentucky over Wake Forest (I suspect this game isn't gonna even be close)
Games to watch tomorrow afternoon: Minnesota-Xavier, Cornell-Temple, Siena-Purdue, Missouri-Clemson, and Utah St.-Texas A&M all look to be good. And those are just the games we think will be close. It turned out the 2-15 and 3-14 matchups were some of the best games on Thursday. Who knows what March will bring?
Best Performance: Difficult to go against Armon Bassett's 32 points on 9-17 shooting, 5-10 from three, and 9-10 from the line. Ohio scored early and often against Georgetown, leading comfortably for the final 30 minutes of the game to beat the Hoyas by 14. Yes, I said led for three quarters of the game. The 14 seed. Over the 3 seed. I knew Georgetown was streaky, but not like this. Hats off to the Bobcats, though. The 9th seed in the MAC found their way into the tournament via the auto bid and have certainly made the most of it so far.
Upset that didn't happen: There were a couple tonight, as Montana gave New Mexico all it could handle before falling by 5 to the Lobos. But I'll go with San Diego State, who matched Tennessee bucket for bucket at the end but couldn't come up with that one last shot to knock out the Vols. Tennessee moves into the next round should thank their lucky stars that G-Town is gone (not that Ohio is going to be a cakewalk, but just saying).
Game that got lost in the mix: Those of you who stayed up to watch the late game almost got a thriller at the end. New Mexico seemed to have the game in hand about halfway through the 2nd half, but Montana wasn't having any of it. Montana was able to get it within one but was unable to overtake the Lobos, eventually losing 62-57. Brian Qvale had 26 for the Grizzlies. New Mexico advances to play Washington, who upsetted the 6 seed Marquette on Quincy Pondexter's leaner to give the Huskies an 80-78 victory.
Early Saturday picks:
St. Mary's over Villanova (same as before... nothing Nova did convinced me this game is gonna turn out any different than I expect)
Butler over Murray State (maybe it's time to stop hating on the Bulldogs and believe they're for real)
Tennessee over Ohio
Kansas over Northern Iowa (KU looked like they were sleepwalking through their game and still easily won... I know it was vs. the 16 seed, but UNI should still be scared)
Baylor over ODU (Although I'm thinking that if Tweety Carter has more games like this, Baylor isn't going anywhere in this tournament)
Washington over New Mexico (If I'm going to try and cash in on the hot hand, might as well do it here. If this is the Washington team we expected back in November, then they're sorely underseeded at 11. And that makes them VERY dangerous)
Kansas State over BYU (But I'm not ruling out a 45 point performance by Jimmer and a BYU win)
Kentucky over Wake Forest (I suspect this game isn't gonna even be close)
Games to watch tomorrow afternoon: Minnesota-Xavier, Cornell-Temple, Siena-Purdue, Missouri-Clemson, and Utah St.-Texas A&M all look to be good. And those are just the games we think will be close. It turned out the 2-15 and 3-14 matchups were some of the best games on Thursday. Who knows what March will bring?
Thursday, March 18th: Day Game Recaps
Best Game: Wow, a lot of choices so far. I'm a sucker for buzzer beaters, so I have to go with Murray State-Vanderbilt. Close the entire way, capped off by a Danero Thomas 16 footer for the win. I'm somewhat surprised he got as good a look as he did, but he still had to make the shot. Well executed play by Murray State, and a heck of a win to advance to the 2nd round. I know a lot of people (myself included) saw this Murray State team as a potential upset pick in the first few rounds, and they came through.
Best Performance: Has to be Jimmer Fredette's 37 point gem in BYU's first 1st round win in 8 years, beating Florida 99-92 in double OT. The best part was, his teammate almost played better than he did. Michael Loyd Jr. came out of nowhere to score 26 on 7-10 shooting. Florida had chances at the end of regulation and the 1st OT and couldn't get off a good shot either time. Florida's inability to create consistent looks in the paint eventually became their downfall. In the future, I would suggest that Billy Donovan tell his kids not to put up 32 threes when you shoot 31% from three as a team. Meanwhile, BYU looked efficient and effective offensively and should give K-State (who looked impressive in their own right) one heck of a game.
Upset that didn't happen: The kids from RMU played their butts off and Nova did everything short of giving the game away at the end, including Scottie Reynolds going 2-15 from the floor, the entire team missing all kinds of layups and open jumpers, turning the ball over a couple of times in the last minutes and passing up a wide open layup to take a 5 point lead with 15 seconds to go. No offense to Nova, but it's a shame when a team plays that poorly and still ends up winning the game. Nova better be ready to play on Saturday, because Omar Samhan looked awfully good today and he will be ready to dominate the Wildcats inside. Honorable mention goes out to Sam Houston State, who hung with Baylor for 38 minutes before the Bears finally took over.
Game that got lost in the mix: Notre Dame-Old Dominion was incredibly slow and boring in the 2nd half, but it was exciting at the end, as Carleton Scott's 3 pointer rimmed in and out, giving Old Dominion a 51-50 win for the first upset of the day. ODU's height and 2-3 zone gave ND problems in the 2nd half, and the Irish struggled to hit open jumpers and only got 3 foul shot attempts on the day.
Most exciting game left tonight: I'm looking forward to Marquette-Washington, Tennessee-San Diego State, and Wake Forest-Texas.
Best Performance: Has to be Jimmer Fredette's 37 point gem in BYU's first 1st round win in 8 years, beating Florida 99-92 in double OT. The best part was, his teammate almost played better than he did. Michael Loyd Jr. came out of nowhere to score 26 on 7-10 shooting. Florida had chances at the end of regulation and the 1st OT and couldn't get off a good shot either time. Florida's inability to create consistent looks in the paint eventually became their downfall. In the future, I would suggest that Billy Donovan tell his kids not to put up 32 threes when you shoot 31% from three as a team. Meanwhile, BYU looked efficient and effective offensively and should give K-State (who looked impressive in their own right) one heck of a game.
Upset that didn't happen: The kids from RMU played their butts off and Nova did everything short of giving the game away at the end, including Scottie Reynolds going 2-15 from the floor, the entire team missing all kinds of layups and open jumpers, turning the ball over a couple of times in the last minutes and passing up a wide open layup to take a 5 point lead with 15 seconds to go. No offense to Nova, but it's a shame when a team plays that poorly and still ends up winning the game. Nova better be ready to play on Saturday, because Omar Samhan looked awfully good today and he will be ready to dominate the Wildcats inside. Honorable mention goes out to Sam Houston State, who hung with Baylor for 38 minutes before the Bears finally took over.
Game that got lost in the mix: Notre Dame-Old Dominion was incredibly slow and boring in the 2nd half, but it was exciting at the end, as Carleton Scott's 3 pointer rimmed in and out, giving Old Dominion a 51-50 win for the first upset of the day. ODU's height and 2-3 zone gave ND problems in the 2nd half, and the Irish struggled to hit open jumpers and only got 3 foul shot attempts on the day.
Most exciting game left tonight: I'm looking forward to Marquette-Washington, Tennessee-San Diego State, and Wake Forest-Texas.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
NCAA Tournament Preview: Final Four
So I have my picks, and I'm a bit scared. Normally I waver back and forth a lot, but I feel pretty good about this year's selections. Either this means my bracket will be amazing, or it will be terrible and I'll look like an idiot. In either case, you'll have to listen to me blab on, so deal with it. Here's my Final Four outlook:
Kansas vs. Kansas State: Interesting Final Four matchup, given these teams have already played three times. Rather than go through an analysis, I'm just going to say what happened in the previous three games:
Jan. 30th: Five guys score in double figures for KU and the Jayhawks shoot 50% in what was a closely contested battle with Sherron Collins hitting a lay-up with 10 seconds left to give KU a 81-79 victory.
March 3rd: No one other than Pullen and Clemente show up for K-State, and Kansas shoots 51% with 16 assists on 26 made baskets for a relatively easy 82-65 win.
Saturday: Kansas holds K-State to 34% shooting and they don't lead by less than 14 over the final 13 minutes to win 72-64 and take the Big 12 tournament.
Most times, people say the reason it's difficult to sweep a team is because they've seen you so many times (doesn't that work the other way) and the other team is more motivated to win than you. But if you can't get motivated for a Final Four game, why are you there? And outside of the 1st game, Kansas really seems to know how to shut down K-State. I have no reason to pick against the Jayhawks.
Score: Kansas 80, Kansas State 71
West Virginia vs. Baylor: What an odd matchup. Let's look at each team's weaknesses. The main things I saw about West Virginia is they don't have a solid PG and they're undersized at the 5. Baylor can exploit both matchups. However, I like West Virginia here. Here's why:
1. Rebounding. West Virginia is an excellent offensive rebounding team. Baylor, for it's size, gives up a fair amount of 2nd chance boards. Not a good sign.
2. Turnovers. Baylor has been turnover-prone at times this season, meaning more possessions for West Virginia.
3. Foul shooting. Not really bad, just lack of it. Many of Baylor's top scorers are not guys that get to the line consistently, and that adds an element of inconsistency for an offensive. Baylor has been excellent offensively all year long, but against a tough, physical defense, you don't want to be shooting perimeter jumpers all night long.
Also, Desean Butler. Had to get that in here somewhere.
Score: West Virginia 65, Baylor 61
FINALS: Kansas vs. West Virginia
This is a pretty easy pick for me. Not saying West Virginia can't hang with Kansas. However, KU just does too many things too well. They're so versatile offensively... they can play fast or slow, they can score inside or outside, they can get to the foul line, they hit the offensive glass pretty well... it's such a difficult team to slow down. Plus, West Virginia will likely have to be on their game offensively for 40 minutes... not one of their strong suits. I predict that Kansas will take out West Virginia (or whoever else is in that spot, for that matter) and will be your 2009-2010 NCAA Champs.
Score: Kansas 78, West Virginia 64
Kansas vs. Kansas State: Interesting Final Four matchup, given these teams have already played three times. Rather than go through an analysis, I'm just going to say what happened in the previous three games:
Jan. 30th: Five guys score in double figures for KU and the Jayhawks shoot 50% in what was a closely contested battle with Sherron Collins hitting a lay-up with 10 seconds left to give KU a 81-79 victory.
March 3rd: No one other than Pullen and Clemente show up for K-State, and Kansas shoots 51% with 16 assists on 26 made baskets for a relatively easy 82-65 win.
Saturday: Kansas holds K-State to 34% shooting and they don't lead by less than 14 over the final 13 minutes to win 72-64 and take the Big 12 tournament.
Most times, people say the reason it's difficult to sweep a team is because they've seen you so many times (doesn't that work the other way) and the other team is more motivated to win than you. But if you can't get motivated for a Final Four game, why are you there? And outside of the 1st game, Kansas really seems to know how to shut down K-State. I have no reason to pick against the Jayhawks.
Score: Kansas 80, Kansas State 71
West Virginia vs. Baylor: What an odd matchup. Let's look at each team's weaknesses. The main things I saw about West Virginia is they don't have a solid PG and they're undersized at the 5. Baylor can exploit both matchups. However, I like West Virginia here. Here's why:
1. Rebounding. West Virginia is an excellent offensive rebounding team. Baylor, for it's size, gives up a fair amount of 2nd chance boards. Not a good sign.
2. Turnovers. Baylor has been turnover-prone at times this season, meaning more possessions for West Virginia.
3. Foul shooting. Not really bad, just lack of it. Many of Baylor's top scorers are not guys that get to the line consistently, and that adds an element of inconsistency for an offensive. Baylor has been excellent offensively all year long, but against a tough, physical defense, you don't want to be shooting perimeter jumpers all night long.
Also, Desean Butler. Had to get that in here somewhere.
Score: West Virginia 65, Baylor 61
FINALS: Kansas vs. West Virginia
This is a pretty easy pick for me. Not saying West Virginia can't hang with Kansas. However, KU just does too many things too well. They're so versatile offensively... they can play fast or slow, they can score inside or outside, they can get to the foul line, they hit the offensive glass pretty well... it's such a difficult team to slow down. Plus, West Virginia will likely have to be on their game offensively for 40 minutes... not one of their strong suits. I predict that Kansas will take out West Virginia (or whoever else is in that spot, for that matter) and will be your 2009-2010 NCAA Champs.
Score: Kansas 78, West Virginia 64
NCAA Tournament Preview: South Regional
I heard someone say Duke is the worst 1 seed ever. Not sure the South regional warrants that statement, but for a 1, Duke does have a very limited offense. They have three options: Singler, Scheyer, Nolan Smith. They provide almost 70% of Duke's offense. Now, all three are very talented, mind you, and Duke does a ton of other things well, but that's still a lot of offense resting on only a few guys. Like other 1's, there's nothing stopping Duke from going down early. Let's find out how it could happen.
Favorite: Duke. Let's not make this sound like Duke is terrible. They have two guys playing around All-American level, they pull down a ton of offensive boards, they almost always win the turnover battle, and they're a very, very good defensive team. This is why they won 29 games this year. They're not a pushover by any means.
Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier, Duke relies a ton on three guys to provide most of their offense. If one guy is off, that's pressure on the other two to succeed. If two of them are off... I don't know what they're going to do. Also, they're extremely thin in the backcourt and most of their big men are generally useless at things other than being tall (although I will admit... Zoubek has actually been playing fairly well recently)
Who they could lose to: The most likely culprits are Villanova and Baylor. Unfortunately, I don't see how an undersized Purdue team or an undersized Texas A&M team is going to beat the Blue Devils, and nobody else really inserts any fear into me.
Sleeper: Notre Dame. So how does this work again... Notre Dame goes from a one man, inefficient offense to an efficent, deep, talented halfcourt offense overnight? Okay... well anyway, ND is as hot as anyone right now, and they actually are giving Harangody some offensive support, which opens things up for the All-American inside. Now they just gotta play some defense and they could go deep in this tournament.
Who will win: Baylor. How? I'll save that for later...
Picks:
First Round
Duke over whoever
Louisville over Cal (tell me how Cal got into this place without actually beating anyone presently in this tournament other than Washington?)
Texas A&M over Utah State (Pretty sure the only three teams in D-I that are named the Aggies are in the tournament, and two are playing each other. Wierd)
Purdue over Siena (Gotta have some school pride... plus the Saints don't have the size to really hurt us)
Notre Dame over Old Dominion (It's too bad the Monarchs can't get a better matchup, because I'd like them as a sleeper otherwise)
Baylor over Sam Houston State
St. Mary's over Richmond (No reason other than I saw Omar Samhan play this week and he's a total badass)
Villanova over Robert Morris
Second Round
Duke over Louisville (Scheyer is a one-man press breaking machine)
Purdue over Texas A&M (Combination of reasons stated above and wishful thinking)
Baylor over Notre Dame (This could really go either way and completely screw up my bracket)
St. Mary's over Villanova (If I'm going to pick a 10 over a 2, this is it. The worst 2 seed in the tournament vs. a red-hot Gaels team oozing with confidence. Plus Nova has no answer for Samhan inside)
Regional Semis
Duke over Purdue (Hopefully it's not as ugly as the game at Mackey last year)
Baylor over St. Mary's (Size + efficiency on offense spells doom for St. Mary's)
Regional Finals
Baylor over Duke (If Baylor can get to this point, and that's definitely and if, I feel very confident in this pick. Baylor has flown COMPLETELY under the radar this year for no good reason. They have a potential lottery pick in Ekpe Udoh, they're big inside, LaceDarius Dunn has been outstanding this year... they can handle Duke's presence inside and will put the Blue Devil perimeter and post defense to the test. The variety of options on the offensive end and defensive presence at the basket will make the difference)
Pick: BAYLOR BEARS
Favorite: Duke. Let's not make this sound like Duke is terrible. They have two guys playing around All-American level, they pull down a ton of offensive boards, they almost always win the turnover battle, and they're a very, very good defensive team. This is why they won 29 games this year. They're not a pushover by any means.
Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier, Duke relies a ton on three guys to provide most of their offense. If one guy is off, that's pressure on the other two to succeed. If two of them are off... I don't know what they're going to do. Also, they're extremely thin in the backcourt and most of their big men are generally useless at things other than being tall (although I will admit... Zoubek has actually been playing fairly well recently)
Who they could lose to: The most likely culprits are Villanova and Baylor. Unfortunately, I don't see how an undersized Purdue team or an undersized Texas A&M team is going to beat the Blue Devils, and nobody else really inserts any fear into me.
Sleeper: Notre Dame. So how does this work again... Notre Dame goes from a one man, inefficient offense to an efficent, deep, talented halfcourt offense overnight? Okay... well anyway, ND is as hot as anyone right now, and they actually are giving Harangody some offensive support, which opens things up for the All-American inside. Now they just gotta play some defense and they could go deep in this tournament.
Who will win: Baylor. How? I'll save that for later...
Picks:
First Round
Duke over whoever
Louisville over Cal (tell me how Cal got into this place without actually beating anyone presently in this tournament other than Washington?)
Texas A&M over Utah State (Pretty sure the only three teams in D-I that are named the Aggies are in the tournament, and two are playing each other. Wierd)
Purdue over Siena (Gotta have some school pride... plus the Saints don't have the size to really hurt us)
Notre Dame over Old Dominion (It's too bad the Monarchs can't get a better matchup, because I'd like them as a sleeper otherwise)
Baylor over Sam Houston State
St. Mary's over Richmond (No reason other than I saw Omar Samhan play this week and he's a total badass)
Villanova over Robert Morris
Second Round
Duke over Louisville (Scheyer is a one-man press breaking machine)
Purdue over Texas A&M (Combination of reasons stated above and wishful thinking)
Baylor over Notre Dame (This could really go either way and completely screw up my bracket)
St. Mary's over Villanova (If I'm going to pick a 10 over a 2, this is it. The worst 2 seed in the tournament vs. a red-hot Gaels team oozing with confidence. Plus Nova has no answer for Samhan inside)
Regional Semis
Duke over Purdue (Hopefully it's not as ugly as the game at Mackey last year)
Baylor over St. Mary's (Size + efficiency on offense spells doom for St. Mary's)
Regional Finals
Baylor over Duke (If Baylor can get to this point, and that's definitely and if, I feel very confident in this pick. Baylor has flown COMPLETELY under the radar this year for no good reason. They have a potential lottery pick in Ekpe Udoh, they're big inside, LaceDarius Dunn has been outstanding this year... they can handle Duke's presence inside and will put the Blue Devil perimeter and post defense to the test. The variety of options on the offensive end and defensive presence at the basket will make the difference)
Pick: BAYLOR BEARS
NCAA Tournament Preview: East Regional
The Kentucky regional. What fun. I really have no idea what's going to happen here. It initially seems like a straight-forward 1 vs. 2 matchup in the Elite Eight, but both teams have their flaws and several teams that can expose those flaws along the way. If one or the other goes down, then it's anyone's guess as to who will be in the regional final. That's what makes this year exciting though. Onward:
Favorite: Kentucky. I swear, this team won half their games this year by less than 10 points. That means one of two things: they're playing with fire and not really that good, or they're really good and just that much more talented than anyone else that they can win games at will down the stretch. I think it's a bit of both, actually.
Why they could lose: They have four guys that can all score 25 in any given night, yet they still struggle to score in a halfcourt set at times. How does that work? Also, they can't shoot threes at all, and they're all freshman. This means any one of the following teams could beat them: a slow team, a physical team, an experienced team, a team with size, and a team that plays a good zone. Problem: about half the teams in this bracket fit under that description. Not a good sign.
Who could beat them: Any of the following: Texas, Wake Forest, Temple, Cornell, Wisconsin, Marquette, New Mexico, Clemson, Missouri, West Virginia. I just named most of the bracket. Again, sometimes I don't understand how this team won this many games. I guess it's because they have the best PG (Wall) and most difficult one-on-one matchup (Cousins) in the nation. I hate you, Calipari.
Sleeper: Most everybody who wants to pick a sleeper from this region is picking Cornell. So I'm going to take the team playing Cornell in the first round: Temple. Unless you forgot, this team handled Villanova pretty easily. They're physical, they're tough defensively, and they limit 2nd chance points. That spells issues for Kentucky if you ask me. And West Virginia has been known to stall out in halfcourt sets as well. Make no mistake: the Owls have the tools to take this region.
Who will win: West Virginia. I actually would not take them in a head to head matchup vs. UK. Good thing they won't end up playing (see what I did there?). Anyway, with Desean Butler taking over this team and turning into Mr. Clutch, WVU appears to be hitting on all cylinders at the moment. Then again, this team was 143rd in effective FG% in the nation. So who knows
Picks:
First Round
UK over East Tennessee State (ETSU gave Pitt a game last year as a 16. Don't be surprised if this one is a classic Lee Corso "closer than the experts think")
Wake Forest over Texas (Is it sad that Texas was #1 in the country at one point and I didn't really even think about this pick? The answer is yes)
Temple over Cornell (I think people forgot that Cornell lost that game to Kansas)
Wisconsin over Wofford
Marquette over Washington (I really want to pick the red-hot Huskies, but Marquette has played better than their record suggests this year)
New Mexico over Montana
Clemson over Missouri (Only because I still don't trust Mizzou away from home)
West Virginia over Morgan State
Second Round
UK over Wake Forest (Maybe an upset?... no, not yet. Patience)
Wisconsin over Temple (Yes, I did just hype up Temple and then pick them to lose in the 2nd round. Gotta keep you on your toes)
New Mexico over Marquette
West Virginia over Clemson (although watching WVU try to handle a full court press for 40 minutes without a good PG will be entertaining)
Regional Semis
Wisconsin over UK (Several reasons. First off, Wisconsin will not be sped up. Ever. This means UK will have to win a halfcourt game. Secondly, Wisconsin has some good weapons in a halfcourt set: Trevon Hughes has turned into a beast this year, Jordan Taylor has been excellent, Leuer does his thing, and they have several good spot up shooters as well. Now, they currently don't have a way of dealing with Cousins, and if it does become a shootout... okay, okay, my logic falls apart here. Just deal with the pick. Plus maybe Cousins does something stupid and gets himself ejected)
West Virginia over New Mexico (I should pick the upset here... New Mexico has excellent guard play and offense, and they limit offensive rebounds which is WVU's forte... but WVU's too versatile and Butler's playing too well right now to lose)
Regional Finals
West Virginia over Wisconsin (Same sort of thing as before. Wisconsin can slow down and stall out UK, but West Virginia's more prepared for a halfcourt, physical game. Plus Desean Butler has been the man recently. Did I mention Desean Butler?)
Winner: WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Favorite: Kentucky. I swear, this team won half their games this year by less than 10 points. That means one of two things: they're playing with fire and not really that good, or they're really good and just that much more talented than anyone else that they can win games at will down the stretch. I think it's a bit of both, actually.
Why they could lose: They have four guys that can all score 25 in any given night, yet they still struggle to score in a halfcourt set at times. How does that work? Also, they can't shoot threes at all, and they're all freshman. This means any one of the following teams could beat them: a slow team, a physical team, an experienced team, a team with size, and a team that plays a good zone. Problem: about half the teams in this bracket fit under that description. Not a good sign.
Who could beat them: Any of the following: Texas, Wake Forest, Temple, Cornell, Wisconsin, Marquette, New Mexico, Clemson, Missouri, West Virginia. I just named most of the bracket. Again, sometimes I don't understand how this team won this many games. I guess it's because they have the best PG (Wall) and most difficult one-on-one matchup (Cousins) in the nation. I hate you, Calipari.
Sleeper: Most everybody who wants to pick a sleeper from this region is picking Cornell. So I'm going to take the team playing Cornell in the first round: Temple. Unless you forgot, this team handled Villanova pretty easily. They're physical, they're tough defensively, and they limit 2nd chance points. That spells issues for Kentucky if you ask me. And West Virginia has been known to stall out in halfcourt sets as well. Make no mistake: the Owls have the tools to take this region.
Who will win: West Virginia. I actually would not take them in a head to head matchup vs. UK. Good thing they won't end up playing (see what I did there?). Anyway, with Desean Butler taking over this team and turning into Mr. Clutch, WVU appears to be hitting on all cylinders at the moment. Then again, this team was 143rd in effective FG% in the nation. So who knows
Picks:
First Round
UK over East Tennessee State (ETSU gave Pitt a game last year as a 16. Don't be surprised if this one is a classic Lee Corso "closer than the experts think")
Wake Forest over Texas (Is it sad that Texas was #1 in the country at one point and I didn't really even think about this pick? The answer is yes)
Temple over Cornell (I think people forgot that Cornell lost that game to Kansas)
Wisconsin over Wofford
Marquette over Washington (I really want to pick the red-hot Huskies, but Marquette has played better than their record suggests this year)
New Mexico over Montana
Clemson over Missouri (Only because I still don't trust Mizzou away from home)
West Virginia over Morgan State
Second Round
UK over Wake Forest (Maybe an upset?... no, not yet. Patience)
Wisconsin over Temple (Yes, I did just hype up Temple and then pick them to lose in the 2nd round. Gotta keep you on your toes)
New Mexico over Marquette
West Virginia over Clemson (although watching WVU try to handle a full court press for 40 minutes without a good PG will be entertaining)
Regional Semis
Wisconsin over UK (Several reasons. First off, Wisconsin will not be sped up. Ever. This means UK will have to win a halfcourt game. Secondly, Wisconsin has some good weapons in a halfcourt set: Trevon Hughes has turned into a beast this year, Jordan Taylor has been excellent, Leuer does his thing, and they have several good spot up shooters as well. Now, they currently don't have a way of dealing with Cousins, and if it does become a shootout... okay, okay, my logic falls apart here. Just deal with the pick. Plus maybe Cousins does something stupid and gets himself ejected)
West Virginia over New Mexico (I should pick the upset here... New Mexico has excellent guard play and offense, and they limit offensive rebounds which is WVU's forte... but WVU's too versatile and Butler's playing too well right now to lose)
Regional Finals
West Virginia over Wisconsin (Same sort of thing as before. Wisconsin can slow down and stall out UK, but West Virginia's more prepared for a halfcourt, physical game. Plus Desean Butler has been the man recently. Did I mention Desean Butler?)
Winner: WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS
Monday, March 15, 2010
NCAA Tournament Preview: West Regional
On to the West regional, which has some very intriguing upset possibilities. I could easily see anyone from 4 on down losing in the first round, and after that point who really knows, especially if Onuaku's injury is somewhat serious. By the way, Syracuse went from my favorite a couple of weeks ago to a potential early exit in the tournament. It depends on matchups and health concerns. But we'll get to that in a minute.
Favorites: Syracuse. What a wild three weeks it's been. After a Saturday where not only KU and UK fall but the Orange pound Nova in a sold out Carrier Dome to jump to #1, Syracuse now finds itself on a two game losing streak and with a potentially serious injury to its starting center. No question the Cuse can ball, but that zone has looked particularly shaky these past two games, and there's a very fine line between stout and extremely flaky when it comes to a zone. Let's just say Syracuse hopes nobody catches fire from three early in this tournament.
Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier (and have said this entire year), Syracuse is vulnerable to small teams that can penetrate the zone and hit perimeter jumpers. For the Orange, the zone is simultaneously their best friend (lots of steals that turn into points) and their worst enemy. It also helps to have a point forward that can operate well in the high post and break the zone down from the inside out.
Who they could lose to: The two seed, Kansas State, particularly intrigues me, because they have both the guard play and the point forwards to break down the zone. Beyond that, Pitt has already beaten the Orange, but the rest of the field looks pretty thin. Unless you think Butler is gonna catch fire from the outside in their Sweet 16 matchup.
Sleeper: BYU. I've never particularly liked unathletic mid-major squads, but something about this Jimmer Fredette character intrigues me. Maybe it's just the name. But the guy's an insanely efficient and proficient scorer (much like Stephen Curry was) and he may be able to put his team on his back and roll off a few upsets. It's not like K-State and Pitt are immune to imploding, either.
Who will win: Kansas State. Is this a risky pick? Probably. But they've got the tools to win this thing. Like I said, I think they match up well vs. the Orange, and the bracket isn't particularly intimidating otherwise (although Pitt will put up a good fight in the regional semis).
PICKS:
1st Round
Syracuse over Vermont (No Vermont upset this time... sorry Catamounts)
Florida State over Gonzaga (Gotta stick with one of those under-the-radar ACC teams... as long as they figure out how to score consistently)
UTEP over Butler (I've been hating on Butler all year long. No reason to stop now)
Murray State over Vanderbilt (See what I mean? It's not like these are crazy picks either. They really could happen)
Minnesota over Xavier
Pitt over Oakland
BYU over Florida
Kansas State over North Texas
2nd Round
Syracuse over Florida State (I'll guess the Seminoles score somewhere between 25 and 27 points in this one. Okay, fine. I'll give them an even 30.)
UTEP over Murray State (I'm probably too excited about a couple of teams that really haven't beaten anyone. Well, you only live once. Go Miners!)
Pitt over Minnesota (Every time I look at the Panthers I think "Really? This team is that good?" But they actually have a lot of guys that can create their own shot for a team that's supposed to be "depleted" from last year. Can they handle size? We'll find out in the 2nd round no matter what because Xavier's also a big team)
Kansas State over BYU (This game will be something like 67-55, with Jimmer scoring 50 points)
Regional Semis
Syracuse over UTEP (Pretty straightforward matchup for the Orange)
Kansas State over Pitt (This will be an entertaining game to watch. Look for K-State's forwards to make the difference here, as they have all year long)
Regional Finals
Kansas State over Syracuse (I've mentioned this before, but Kansas State has two guards that can score in bunches, they get to the line, and they have a surprisingly athletic front line that crashes the offensive boards like mad men. This is NOT a good matchup for Syracuse. I'm taking the Wildcats if they can get this far)
Winner: KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
Favorites: Syracuse. What a wild three weeks it's been. After a Saturday where not only KU and UK fall but the Orange pound Nova in a sold out Carrier Dome to jump to #1, Syracuse now finds itself on a two game losing streak and with a potentially serious injury to its starting center. No question the Cuse can ball, but that zone has looked particularly shaky these past two games, and there's a very fine line between stout and extremely flaky when it comes to a zone. Let's just say Syracuse hopes nobody catches fire from three early in this tournament.
Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier (and have said this entire year), Syracuse is vulnerable to small teams that can penetrate the zone and hit perimeter jumpers. For the Orange, the zone is simultaneously their best friend (lots of steals that turn into points) and their worst enemy. It also helps to have a point forward that can operate well in the high post and break the zone down from the inside out.
Who they could lose to: The two seed, Kansas State, particularly intrigues me, because they have both the guard play and the point forwards to break down the zone. Beyond that, Pitt has already beaten the Orange, but the rest of the field looks pretty thin. Unless you think Butler is gonna catch fire from the outside in their Sweet 16 matchup.
Sleeper: BYU. I've never particularly liked unathletic mid-major squads, but something about this Jimmer Fredette character intrigues me. Maybe it's just the name. But the guy's an insanely efficient and proficient scorer (much like Stephen Curry was) and he may be able to put his team on his back and roll off a few upsets. It's not like K-State and Pitt are immune to imploding, either.
Who will win: Kansas State. Is this a risky pick? Probably. But they've got the tools to win this thing. Like I said, I think they match up well vs. the Orange, and the bracket isn't particularly intimidating otherwise (although Pitt will put up a good fight in the regional semis).
PICKS:
1st Round
Syracuse over Vermont (No Vermont upset this time... sorry Catamounts)
Florida State over Gonzaga (Gotta stick with one of those under-the-radar ACC teams... as long as they figure out how to score consistently)
UTEP over Butler (I've been hating on Butler all year long. No reason to stop now)
Murray State over Vanderbilt (See what I mean? It's not like these are crazy picks either. They really could happen)
Minnesota over Xavier
Pitt over Oakland
BYU over Florida
Kansas State over North Texas
2nd Round
Syracuse over Florida State (I'll guess the Seminoles score somewhere between 25 and 27 points in this one. Okay, fine. I'll give them an even 30.)
UTEP over Murray State (I'm probably too excited about a couple of teams that really haven't beaten anyone. Well, you only live once. Go Miners!)
Pitt over Minnesota (Every time I look at the Panthers I think "Really? This team is that good?" But they actually have a lot of guys that can create their own shot for a team that's supposed to be "depleted" from last year. Can they handle size? We'll find out in the 2nd round no matter what because Xavier's also a big team)
Kansas State over BYU (This game will be something like 67-55, with Jimmer scoring 50 points)
Regional Semis
Syracuse over UTEP (Pretty straightforward matchup for the Orange)
Kansas State over Pitt (This will be an entertaining game to watch. Look for K-State's forwards to make the difference here, as they have all year long)
Regional Finals
Kansas State over Syracuse (I've mentioned this before, but Kansas State has two guards that can score in bunches, they get to the line, and they have a surprisingly athletic front line that crashes the offensive boards like mad men. This is NOT a good matchup for Syracuse. I'm taking the Wildcats if they can get this far)
Winner: KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
Sunday, March 14, 2010
NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Regional
The Tournament is finally here! That means some analysis from you know who. Over the next few days I'll preview each region with favorites, potential sleepers, and who'll be there at the end. We'll start out with the bracket containing the #1 overall team in the tournament, the Kansas Jayhawks in the Midwest Regional.
Favorites: Kansas, obviously. They're talented outside (Collins, Henry) and inside (Marcus Morris, Aldrich), they can play a variety of styles, and they're excellent on both ends of the ball. Definitely the favorite in this region.
Why they could lose: It will probably take some level of implosion for Kansas to lose early, but don't think it can't happen. There have been times KU has struggled offensively this year (Memphis, Cornell, Tennessee, Oklahoma State) and when that happens, Sherron Collins sometimes tries to do everything and problems occur. It's not a trend for KU to struggle offensively, but it can happen.
Who they could lose to: I don't see KU losing before the Elite Eight (Maryland's too small, Michigan State's not good enough) but at that point there are a whole host of teams that could give KU problems, including Ohio State, Georgetown, Tennessee, and even Oklahoma State or Georgia Tech. The bottom half of the Midwest is probably the strongest 8 team section in the tournament.
Sleeper: Georgia Tech. I know they have turnover problems, but when you have not one but two post players that can create their own shot in Lawal and Favors, you're a dangerous team. Especially when the teams you're trying to upset (Oklahoma State, Ohio State) lack size.
Who will win: Kansas. They're too good to not pick. But don't be surprised if red-hot teams like Georgetown or Ohio State end up taking them down. Especially keep an eye on Ohio State... anytime you have the best player in college basketball, you're a threat to win the game.
PICKS:
1st Round
Kansas over Lehigh
UNLV over Northern Iowa (I'll take UNI over any Valley team... otherwise, they're not dynamic enough for my liking)
Michigan State over New Mexico State
Maryland over Houston
Tennessee over San Diego State (The Vols are one of those teams that could lose in the first round or take the entire region)
Georgetown over Ohio (A couple of weeks ago I would've picked against G-Town in the first round against almost anyone. Then Chris Wright decided he was gonna be a beast)
Georgia Tech over Oklahoma State (Tough to pick against he best 2 guard in the land, but I believe in the Yellow Jackets that much)
Ohio State over UC Santa Barbera
2nd Round
Kansas over UNLV
Maryland over Michigan State (I remember seeing a blog post about three weeks ago where some guy compared Michigan State's resume to Maryland's and asked why Michigan State was a top 15 team and Maryland wasn't ranked. He was exactly right)
Georgetown over Tennessee (Hopefully the Hoyas don't go all last year on me like they have at times this season)
Ohio State over Georgia Tech (Sooo tempting to pick the upset... but the Buckeyes have been playing too well right now. Watch out though if GT attacks the small OSU frontline and gets a thin Buckeye team into foul trouble early)
Regional Semis
Kansas over Maryland (The Terps have no one to deal with Marcus Morris, much less Aldrich. Vazquez will do his thing, but Jayhawks are just too deep and talented)
Ohio State over Georgetown (The Buckeyes will sit back in that zone, deny passes to Monroe and force Wright and Freeman to beat them from the outside. Meanwhile, Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country at turning defense into offense, bad news for a team that has been turnover prone at many points this year)
Regional Finals
Kansas over Ohio State (Similar reasons... too much size, too much depth for OSU to handle; however, Turner is the wild card. He can drop 40 on anyone in this tournament and win the game for his team. Stay tuned)
Winner: KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Favorites: Kansas, obviously. They're talented outside (Collins, Henry) and inside (Marcus Morris, Aldrich), they can play a variety of styles, and they're excellent on both ends of the ball. Definitely the favorite in this region.
Why they could lose: It will probably take some level of implosion for Kansas to lose early, but don't think it can't happen. There have been times KU has struggled offensively this year (Memphis, Cornell, Tennessee, Oklahoma State) and when that happens, Sherron Collins sometimes tries to do everything and problems occur. It's not a trend for KU to struggle offensively, but it can happen.
Who they could lose to: I don't see KU losing before the Elite Eight (Maryland's too small, Michigan State's not good enough) but at that point there are a whole host of teams that could give KU problems, including Ohio State, Georgetown, Tennessee, and even Oklahoma State or Georgia Tech. The bottom half of the Midwest is probably the strongest 8 team section in the tournament.
Sleeper: Georgia Tech. I know they have turnover problems, but when you have not one but two post players that can create their own shot in Lawal and Favors, you're a dangerous team. Especially when the teams you're trying to upset (Oklahoma State, Ohio State) lack size.
Who will win: Kansas. They're too good to not pick. But don't be surprised if red-hot teams like Georgetown or Ohio State end up taking them down. Especially keep an eye on Ohio State... anytime you have the best player in college basketball, you're a threat to win the game.
PICKS:
1st Round
Kansas over Lehigh
UNLV over Northern Iowa (I'll take UNI over any Valley team... otherwise, they're not dynamic enough for my liking)
Michigan State over New Mexico State
Maryland over Houston
Tennessee over San Diego State (The Vols are one of those teams that could lose in the first round or take the entire region)
Georgetown over Ohio (A couple of weeks ago I would've picked against G-Town in the first round against almost anyone. Then Chris Wright decided he was gonna be a beast)
Georgia Tech over Oklahoma State (Tough to pick against he best 2 guard in the land, but I believe in the Yellow Jackets that much)
Ohio State over UC Santa Barbera
2nd Round
Kansas over UNLV
Maryland over Michigan State (I remember seeing a blog post about three weeks ago where some guy compared Michigan State's resume to Maryland's and asked why Michigan State was a top 15 team and Maryland wasn't ranked. He was exactly right)
Georgetown over Tennessee (Hopefully the Hoyas don't go all last year on me like they have at times this season)
Ohio State over Georgia Tech (Sooo tempting to pick the upset... but the Buckeyes have been playing too well right now. Watch out though if GT attacks the small OSU frontline and gets a thin Buckeye team into foul trouble early)
Regional Semis
Kansas over Maryland (The Terps have no one to deal with Marcus Morris, much less Aldrich. Vazquez will do his thing, but Jayhawks are just too deep and talented)
Ohio State over Georgetown (The Buckeyes will sit back in that zone, deny passes to Monroe and force Wright and Freeman to beat them from the outside. Meanwhile, Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country at turning defense into offense, bad news for a team that has been turnover prone at many points this year)
Regional Finals
Kansas over Ohio State (Similar reasons... too much size, too much depth for OSU to handle; however, Turner is the wild card. He can drop 40 on anyone in this tournament and win the game for his team. Stay tuned)
Winner: KANSAS JAYHAWKS
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
The Big List - March 3rd, 2010
Updated to include Monday's and Tuesday's Games. Power 16 remains unchanged, except Georgetown drops and Maryland replaces them (partially because I think they're taking down Duke tonight). The Bubble list is still very, very fluid and will change a lot tonight as several bubble teams play one another, like UConn and ND.
1. Cuse
2. Kansas
3. UK
4. Duke
5. K-State
6. WVU
7. Purdue
8. Ohio St
9. Nova
10. UNM
11. Temple
12. Tennessee
13. BYU
14. Mich St
15. Butler
16. Maryland
Locks:
G-Town, Gonzaga, Vandy, Wisky, N Iowa, Mizzou, Baylor, A&M, Texas, Okie St, Xavier, UTEP, Pitt
Bubble List:
Richmond
UNLV
Clemson
FSU
Cornell
Marquette
Wake
Louisville
GT
Uconn
ND
Cal
Illinois
Florida
ODU
UAB
SDSU
St. Mary's
Miss St
USF
Cincy
URI
Dayton
Ole Miss
Seton Hall
Memphis
Charlotte
Minnesota
"Soft Bubble" Projected Spots 16
"Hard Bubble" Projected Spots 10
Power 16:
1. Cuse
2. Kansas
3. UK
4. Duke
5. K-State
6. WVU
7. Purdue
8. Ohio St
9. Nova
10. UNM
11. Temple
12. Tennessee
13. BYU
14. Mich St
15. Butler
16. Maryland
Locks:
G-Town, Gonzaga, Vandy, Wisky, N Iowa, Mizzou, Baylor, A&M, Texas, Okie St, Xavier, UTEP, Pitt
Bubble List:
Richmond
UNLV
Clemson
FSU
Cornell
Marquette
Wake
Louisville
GT
Uconn
ND
Cal
Illinois
Florida
ODU
UAB
SDSU
St. Mary's
Miss St
USF
Cincy
URI
Dayton
Ole Miss
Seton Hall
Memphis
Charlotte
Minnesota
"Soft Bubble" Projected Spots 16
"Hard Bubble" Projected Spots 10
Sunday, February 28, 2010
The Big List - March 1st, 2010
March is here! That means March Madness, the NCAA Tournament, will shortly be upon us. Conference tournaments for smaller conferences will be starting up soon, with power conferences still having one week of games on their schedule before conference tournaments. Lots of jockeying for conference and NCAA tournament position is about to take place over the next week. In response to that, I introduce The Big List, or my version of a bubble watch/bracketology.
My Reasoning:
Most places that do a bracket make assumptions about which teams will get auto bids and which won't. Most mention their last four in, last four out, and next four out, which is fine, but it's still difficult to get a feel for where teams stand in relation to one another since it's not easy to tell how hard of a bubble they have projected (by hardness of a bubble, I mean how many auto bids are up for grabs. Let me explain. Several mid-major schools will get bids to the tournament whether or not they win their conference tournament. This means if they don't win their conference tournament, some other team will get the auto-bid and they will "steal" an at-large. A soft bubble assumes all these teams get auto bids and therefore, the maximum number of at-large bids will be available. Sort of). So I am instead including a list, beginning with my "Power 16", or top 16 ranked teams, the rest of the locks, and the bubble pecking order as I see it. I will at the end give a summary of how many bids are available in the event of both a soft and hard bubble so you get an idea of where the cut-off line may fall. Maybe I should just give an example.
BIG LIST: March 1st
Power 16:
1. Syracuse
2. Kansas
3. Kentucky
4. Duke
5. Kansas State
6. West Virginia
7. Purdue
8. Ohio State
9. Villanova
10. New Mexico
11. Temple
12. Georgetown
13. Tennessee
14. BYU
15. Michigan State
16. Butler
Other Locks (in no particular order):
Maryland
Pitt
Missouri
Baylor
Texas A&M
Texas
Oklahoma State
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
Xavier
Gonzaga
UTEP
Northern Iowa
Bubble Order:
Richmond
UNLV
Clemson
Clemson
Florida State
Cornell
Louisville
Marquette
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Illinois
Florida
UConn
Notre Dame
Cal
Old Dominion
UAB
San Diego State
Cincinnati
St. Mary's
Mississippi State
South Florida
Ole Miss
Seton Hall
Dayton
Memphis
Charlotte
Rhode Island
At-Large Bids available = 34
Locks = 29
Conferences Spanned = 11
Conferences with more than 2 locks = 5
Projected "Soft Bubble" spots = 16
Projected "Hard Bubble" spots = 10
Here's how this works. The "Soft Bubble" estimate says how many spots are available from the bubble group if every auto bid from the conferences spanned in the locks section comes from the locks section. In other words, if every Gonzaga, Butler, etc. wins their conference tournament. The "Hard Bubble" assumes the conference tournaments from any conference with 2 or less locks will come from outside the locks groups. Obviously, these are two extreme scenarios, but the idea is to say that there are, in my eyes, anywhere from 10 to 16 at-large spots available, taking out locks.
You will notice there are teams from additional conferences in the bubble section. These teams are there for now but will be removed if and when they win their conference tournament. For example, Cornell is in the bubble mix but has a 2 game lead in the Ivy League with 2 games to go, so if they win either on Friday @ Brown or Saturday @ Yale, they clinch the Ivy League and its auto-bid, so they will be removed and placed in the locks group. Until then, these teams in my opinion should be considered in the bubble mix. Also, keep in mind this is if the season ended today. This is important because, obviously, if Old Dominion doesn't win the Colonial tourney, that will likely take them down a notch no matter who they lose to. It's my take on a bubble watch, and I feel it's an interesting and new way to look at things.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Hummel's Injury
So I rarely post specifically on a Purdue topic, but this one affects college b-ball on a national scene as well so it's worth a look. If you didn't know, Robbie Hummel went down in the first half of the Purdue-Minnesota game on Wednesday, and it was discovered today that he has a torn ACL and is done for the year. Obviously, this is a tremendous blow to a team which I felt was peaking at the right time and ready to make some real noise in the NCAA Tournament and possibly in Indianapolis in April. So what has changed? What can Purdue replace in terms of Hummel's production and leadership on the court, and what will they miss the most?
What Hummel brought to this team:
Anyone from Purdue will tell you Hummel is pretty much the heart and soul of this team. There are some votes for Kramer here and there, but in terms of raw numerical production, versatility, and leadership, you have to go with Hummel. At 6' 8", Hummel is very difficult to handle on the offensive end with his ability to pass and shoot the ball. He's probably our strongest outside shooter overall and Purdue has relied on him to produce a consistent, if not large, volume of points throughout the season. Defensively, Hummel generally matches up against the 4 and is a very good defender. In addition, he's Purdue's best rebounder on both ends of the floor. Add the leadership and production components, and Hummel is one of the three Purdue cornerstones.
What can Purdue replace:
I actually think Hummel's offensive production can be replaced (to an extent). Grant has shot much better over the past three games and will be needed to step into the third option offensively. Kelsey Barlow has shown flashes of explosiveness towards the basket and finishing skills at the rim, but that hasn't been as often during conference play. Kramer and John Hart will also be asked to help carry the scoring load. Overall, we move the ball well enough and guys are shooting well enough that we can probably scrounge together an extra 10-15 points a game offensively. Also, this team has enough veteran leadership and knows how to win basketball games when not at full strength. I would be much, much more worried about this team if this happened last year, but I think the Minnesota game showed me we can play through adversity.
What Purdue can't replace:
Where we will be most hurt is defensively and on the glass. We don't have a 4 anymore and will be forced to either play 4 guards or play Patrick Bade at the 4, and both will leave us with serious match-up problems. This means that a team like Michigan State (who we play on Sunday) will force us into a difficult matchup situation, since I don't particularly like the idea of having Kramer guard Delvon Roe or Raymar Morgan and I don't know if we can live with an offensive liability like Bade on the floor for an extended period of time. It's pick your poison at that point.
What should we expect from Purdue:
First off, we will at least be a top 4 seed. I still think we have a shot at being a 1 if we can win out (not likely, but still). If we only lose to Michigan State but make the Big Ten final, that should be good enough for a 2 seed. I don't see us falling more than a 3 unless we really look bad over the next three weeks. That said, we should be able to get past the first weekend. I don't think there's anyone that will be a 6 seed or below that will give us such a difficult matchup problem that we can't get past it. However, it becomes a crapshoot once you hit the Sweet 16. We're going to be undersized against almost any 1-5 seed in the tournament; however, that doesn't mean every team utilizes that height in a way that will seriously hurt us (like Butler). The teams that will really kill us are teams that have one really good post player (Georgetown, Texas if Pittman plays reasonable minutes) or a big frontline in general (like Baylor). Plus I still think a plethora of speed can hurt us badly as well. In other words, we're going to have severe obstacles against any Sweet 16 team we face.
Does that mean we aren't getting any farther than that round? No. There have been much, much worse teams that have made the Final Four. And this year is WIDE open outside of the top two teams. Also, we're still strong enough defensively that we can hang with anyone in the country given a good shooting day. But then again, I don't think we've shown enough consistency in terms of outside shooting that that's reasonable. Overall, I would really like getting to the Elite Eight, but I can't be upset with a loss in the Sweet 16 or even the 2nd Round in a certain matchup. It's frustrating that it has to be like this when really, nobody did anything wrong. But such is sports.
UPDATE: I have a new concept I'd like to try out this weekend. It's called "The Big List" and I want to unveil it this weekend. We'll see if I get around to it though
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Weekend Preview - Jan. 30th/31st
Good week in college basketball! Obviously, the big news was Kentucky's loss to South Carolina on Tuesday. This seems to affirm the notion that there really isn't a clear cut #1 in the nation right now, and everyone is susceptible at any given time. Here's my view on UK: when they want to be, they are the best team in the country. They have the best PG in the nation and consequently are the best fast-break team in the nation. They have a double-double monster in Cousins, a #3 scorer that could be a #1 scorer on most teams (Patterson), and a very capable supporting cast and bench. However, this team is very young, and that means they don't bring their "A" game every night. Slow them down, pack it in, and force them to be you with the outside shot. Kentucky's inconsistency will be their downfall. And now, for the weekend games.
Upset LOCK OF THE WEEK:
Kansas State over Kansas: There's not really a major upset out there that I feel too confident about, so I'm taking the easy road out here. The key will be Kansas State's forwards. The Wildcats are one of the best defensive teams in the country and they shut down a very good frontcourt against Texas, but Kansas' is a bit deeper, and Cole Aldrich will not get into foul trouble early. I'll guess Kansas State will get production from guys like Jamar Samuels and Curtis Kelly and will take down Kansas, leaving Syracuse as the #1 team on Monday.
Mid-Major Game of the week:
Harvard @ Cornell: I can't remember a bigger Ivy League game than this. Probably because Cornell has recieved actual bubble consideration... and it's really not that unwarranted considering the overall weak state of the bubble. They can avoid all bubble talk by taking care of Harvard, who actually had a higher RPI than Cornell for much of the season. This game has extra meaning for these schools since there's no postseason tournament in the Ivy League. Be interested.
Top 10 Games of the Week:
10. Maryland @ Clemson: The Terps are winning the ACC at 4-1, but their best win is Florida State at home. They get a shot at a resume defining win on Sunday.
9. Oklahoma St. @ Missouri: The middle of the Big 12 is getting a little murky, and the Tigers need to defend home court because of their struggles on the road. Important bubble game here.
8. Florida @ Tennessee: Two teams moving in different directions. Four straight wins for the Gators, and Tennessee coming off a couple of losses, including one @ Georgia.
7. Texas Tech @ Texas A&M: Pretty much the same story as #9.
6. Northwestern @ Michigan State: I almost picked this one for my upset LOCK OF THE WEEK, but I decided against it. Michigan State is due for a loss, but not here. Wait until February 9th.
5. Baylor @ Texas: The Longhorns got back on track Wednesday vs. Texas Tech, but they face a bigger and more dangerous team in Baylor. Dexter Pittman needs to find a way to stay on the court and neutralize the big front line of the Bears.
4. Louisville @ West Virginia: At the moment, WVU is completely shutting down Louisville. If this Mountaineers team can find consistent offensive production from someone other than Butler and Kevin Jones, they can make that jump to the next tier of teams.
3. Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: I made my statement about UK, so now it's time to talk about one of the hottest teams in the country. Vandy is legit. They're big, they have several guys who can score in the paint, and they get to the line often. However, they're not the quickest perimeter team, and they haven't proven to be a giant-killer yet. Yes, UK could come out flat, but something tells me that being at home after their 1st loss against a good team... Kentucky will be ready to play. And that will be the difference.
2. Duke @ Georgetown: The token good non-conference matchup of the week. The Hoyas have been better at not relying on Monroe to score for their offense recently, which is encouraging. The Duke frontline will likely slow down Monroe, but Monroe can hurt you in other ways besides scoring. If Freeman and Wright can hit outside jumpers, I believe G-Town will play their normal strong defense and will send Duke home with a loss.
1. Kansas @ Kansas State: I talked about this game a bit earlier. The scary part for teams that play Kansas is that Aldrich has been playing much, much better offensively over the past few games. When he is scoring, it becomes extremely difficult to adequately defend Kansas. When he's not, you can effectively focus your efforts on forcing Xavier Henry into making mistakes and force Sherron Collins to carry the team. Easier said than done? Yes it is. But if anyone's up to the task defensively, it's Kansas. Like I mentioned earlier, if the K-State forwards can help out Clemente and Pullen, they can win this game.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Bubble Watch - Jan 25th
Sorry about not posting lately... I've been very busy, and assembling a bubble watch for the entire country is a good deal of work. But it's what I love to do, so I don't mind. Anyway, here's the landscape for the nation as of Monday, January 25th. Contenders are starting to emerge, both for the national title and for making the tournament. If you're not thinking about March, you better start to... it's coming up soon. If your team doesn't have that big win, they better get to work.
ACC
Well, the ACC is shaping up to be a competitive conference, if not a particularly strong one. No one team looks strong enough to continuously win on the road, meaning the conference winner could have 4-5 losses. Duke’s probably the strongest of the bunch, followed by a bunch of middling top 25 teams. And when I mean a bunch, I’m talking like a half dozen teams here. The ACC might get 7 teams in, but none of them may make it past the first weekend.
Well, the ACC is shaping up to be a competitive conference, if not a particularly strong one. No one team looks strong enough to continuously win on the road, meaning the conference winner could have 4-5 losses. Duke’s probably the strongest of the bunch, followed by a bunch of middling top 25 teams. And when I mean a bunch, I’m talking like a half dozen teams here. The ACC might get 7 teams in, but none of them may make it past the first weekend.
Locks: Duke
Should be in:
Georgia Tech: Too many good wins to say this team isn’t in, but they’re still inconsistent, so I’ll keep them out of a lock at this point.
Clemson: Could’ve really used a win over Duke at home. As it stands, the Tigers still aren’t in any real danger, despite their .500 record in the ACC. But they’d be advised to not lose to Boston College on Tuesday.
Bubble teams:
Wake Forest: If it wasn’t for the home loss to William & Mary (which isn’t really all that bad), Wake would probably be a stage up right now. They are playing well in conference, though, and are on the right track. They have wins @ Gonzaga and vs. Richmond and Xavier. Loss @ Miami is looking worse but still not terrible. Important road game @ Georgia Tech on Thursday.
UNC: The losses are really starting to pile up now, after falling at home to Wake Forest on Wednesday. Still have good wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech. Those wins are definitely better than almost any bubble team in the country, but there’s a really good chance they may have around 11 losses, and that would be just games I would have them as an underdog. That’s a lot of losses to overcome. They really need to win @ NC State on Tuesday.
Florida State: Got a good win at home vs. Georgia Tech on Sunday for the season sweep. Losses @ Florida and @ Ohio State with Evan Turner are nothing to be ashamed of, and good neutral court wins over Alabama and Marquette help as well. The Seminoles seem to have righted the ship after a rough patch in the ACC.
Virginia Tech: Just escaped at home vs. BC to avoid putting themselves in a serious bind. The Hokies will be a very interesting case. Home vs. Seton Hall and home vs. Miami are their best wins so far, which probably aren’t good enough to get them in the tournament, but it’s not like they’re that much further behind the rest of the conference. A couple of road games against fellow ACC bubblers before UNC comes to town on February 4th.
Likely not in:
Miami: Lost to Boston College again and they are now 1-4 in conference. Excellent non-conference slate against a weak schedule capped by win over Minnesota, but at some point you gotta start winning conference games.
Maryland: Got a home wins vs. Florida State and NC State and are 3-1 in the ACC, which is solid so far. Indiana is their next best win though. All in all, 10+ wins are probably necessary in conference to get the Terps in.
North Carolina State: All in all, not really feeling the Wolfpack, as they can’t seem to beat middle of the pack ACC teams at home or on the road (although apparently they can beat Duke). I’ll keep an eye on them, but I’m not expecting a serious move towards a bid.
Virginia: No shame in losing @ Wake Forest, but that’s probably a game Virginia could’ve used considering their subpar non-conference showing. The margin of error is slim to none for the Cavaliers right now.
Big East
This is shaping up to be a very deep conference. Clear leaders are emerging (Villanova, Syracuse) but after that it’s becoming somewhat of a clouded mess. Can they get 10 in? It’s not unreasonable, although they’ll probably eat at least one of two of their own before conference play is up.
Locks: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, Pitt
Should be in: None
Bubble teams:
UConn: Big, big time win over Texas makes me feel much better about UConn’s tournament chances. It’s the defining win the Huskies have been looking for. Of course, there’s still the matter of the .500 conference record, losses that continue to pile up, and lack of depth to their resume, but for now all is well. Should win @ Providence on Wednesday and would do well to take the Marquette home game on Saturday.
Cincinnati: Lost road games to Seton Hall and St. John’s which isn’t really the mark of a tournament team. At least they got the home win vs. ND. Wins vs. Vanderbilt, and the UConn win helps, but they’re probably moving the wrong way right now. Righted the ship somewhat with a win over South Florida on Wednesday.
Notre Dame: Lost @ Cincinnati, but that’s not really the end of the world. West Virginia win still looms large. Still the ugly Loyola Marymount home loss on their schedule. @ Villanova awaits on Wednesday. Can they get to .500 in conference? It may be enough if they're able to.
Louisville: Lost @ Seton Hall on Thursday and still don’t have a marquee win to speak of (home vs. Cincinnati is the closest thing to that). They have wins against fellow bubblers Providence and St. John’s though. Cardinals didn’t play a difficult non-conference slate as it was, but they still lost to the only tough teams on their schedule.
Seton Hall: Alright, then. The Pirates reel off back-to-back good wins at home to make some noise in the conference. Looking ahead at their schedule, there’s a very real possibility they get 10-11 wins in conference without hitting a major upset. Will that be enough? They don’t have the non-conference slate (best win is Cornell) to back them up. Just keep winning, I guess.
Likely not in:
Marquette: Ugly road loss to DePaul and loss @ Syracuse leaves Marquette at 2-5 in conference play. With their schedule so far, they need all the gimmes they can get. Wins over Xavier and Georgetown are the positives. They are just 11-8, though, and eight losses at this point in the season leaves little to no room for error.
St. John's: Led early vs. Villanova but couldn’t hold it. Can they get in with a .500 record in conference? They do have wins at Temple and vs. Siena. It would be close, but I’m leaning towards no. And that’s if they get to .500, which would be tough for them.
South Florida: Just simply too many better teams in conference.
Big Ten
In Big Ten country, a clear elite group is also emerging. Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State have separated themselves from the pack.
Locks: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Should be in:
Ohio State: With Turner back, it’s only a matter of time before this team moves into lock status. Win over Wisconsin on Saturday showed that. Loss @ West Virginia was not a big deal (although it would’ve helped with seeding).
Bubble Teams:
Minnesota: It’s a shame they couldn’t pull it out vs. Michigan State, as that probably would’ve moved them up a level. At 3-4 in conference and with a loss @ Indiana, Minnesota is quietly slipping in the wrong direction. Still, they have the neutral court win over Butler and a win over Turner-less Ohio State, but losses can and have piled up quickly in conference. Must beat Northwestern at home on Tuesday.
Northwestern: Beat Illinois at home on Saturday but couldn’t get the road win @ Ohio State last Tuesday. I’m not entirely sure what to do with Northwestern at this point. They have wins vs. Purdue, Iowa State, and Notre Dame and no bad losses. However, they haven’t really passed the eye test from what I’ve seen so far. The jury is out on this one.
Likely not in:
Illinois: Three straight conference losses makes it eight total for the Illini, and they appear too young to put together any sort of consistent run. Also have three bad non-conference losses, which is a lot to overcome for any team.
Big 12
They rival the Big East at the top, with three legitimate top 10 teams, but outside of that the drop-off is fairly steep. I’ll keep Kansas State as a lock for now despite the home loss to Oklahoma State. I’d be surprised if they got less than 6 teams in. 7 might be a stretch though.
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State
Should be in:
Texas A & M: I’m probably higher on the Aggies then most people, but all 5 losses are to very good opponents and they have a couple of good wins over Minnesota and Clemson at neutral sites. They still have Kansas and Texas at home, and if they can get one of those, they should be able to get to 10 wins in conference, which would be plenty to get in. Even if they don’t, they’re still probably good.
Bubble teams:
Baylor: No major wins, but a lot of good ones. Solid road wins over South Carolina and Arkansas, a neutral court win over Xavier, and a home win over Oklahoma State. Losses to Alabama (neutral) and @ Colorado aren’t all that good but manageable. A win at Kansas on Wednesday night would be huge, but they’ll settle for a split this week. They need all the conference wins they can get, but they could very well be the 4th best team in this conference, which would likely mean 10 wins.
Missouri: Split back-to-back Saturdays against @ Oklahoma (L) and Nebraska (W). Won at home over Kansas State, but the win against Illinois is looking worse, though, and they have a not-so-pretty loss to Oral Roberts on there as well. Mizzou’s tournament chances will likely come down to their ability to win games on the road, as they are currently 1-3 in true road games.
Oklahoma State: The Kansas State road win defines what was turning into a very lackluster resume. Their next best win is home vs. Texas Tech, so the depth isn’t there, but it’s a start. Keep it going with a home win vs. Texas A & M on Wednesday and you’ll probably be in (for now.)
Likely not in:
Texas Tech: Rebounded by beating Oklahoma at home on Saturday, but that was the easy one. Washington win has plummeted in value, and that’s really all they have at this point (other than maybe UTEP at home). If they can take down Texas in Austin on Wednesday, I’ll reconsider.
Oklahoma: A couple of good wins over Oklahoma State and Missouri, but the Sooners will need more to counter-act so many losses. 11-8 is not going to get it done.
Iowa State: Whiffed on all four chances to get a solid non-conference win (Northwestern, Northern Iowa, Cal, Duke) and missed Kansas on Saturday, meaning their best win is probably @ Nebraska. Not a bad team, but definitely NIT-caliber right now.
Nebraska: Hanging on by a thread after starting 0-4 in conference. (@ Missouri)
Pac-10
This conference continues to amaze me. There’s a good chance that nobody is worthy of an at-large bid and so only the auto bid will get in. Think about it… Washington’s struggled in early conference play. Cal doesn’t have the wins. Arizona State doesn’t exactly have a stellar resume either. I don’t know if anyone’s going to have the wins to get in on their own.
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Bubble teams:
Cal: Beat both the Oregons and are now in sole possession of first place in the Pac-10. With Washington’s demise, this team is likely the Pac-10’s best shot at an at-large. Outside of a home loss to UCLA, every other loss is reasonable for a tournament team. Their biggest weakness remains the lack of quality wins, which they really won’t get much help with for the rest of the year. If they can separate themselves enough from the rest of the conference to get 14 wins or so, they will probably get the nod from the committee. But at this rate, 12-6 might win the conference, and then things will get ugly.
Arizona State: Just as I thought a semi-favorite was emerging in conference, they go out and lose to Arizona at home. They pass the sight test to an extent, as I thought Arizona State looked pretty good at MSG against Duke, and their non-conference slate was fairly good considering what they have to work with. Their overall body of work is a little less spectacular, although they do have a good home win vs. Washington. I really don’t think the resume would hold up to other bubble teams at this point, but the Pac-10 winner will have a somewhat strong case. I don’t know.
Washington: There’s a good amount of people keeping Washington out of the tournament altogether, and I agree 100%. Look at their resume. Does this look like a tournament team to you? It sure doesn’t to me. What a shame.
Likely not in:
Washington State: Still no major wins and currently at .500 in a weak conference. I’m thinking NIT unless something turns around quickly.
Not in: USC. This special section is to remind people that even though USC has played well recently, they have banned themselves due to the O. J. Mayo stuff. They won't play in the Pac-10 tournament either.
SEC
Kentucky and Vanderbilt continue to roll along. Tennessee remains a lock for now, but I would not recommend losing to teams like Georgia anymore. The SEC solidly has 5 teams in, and could get a sixth if Florida makes a run.
Locks: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Should be in:
Mississippi State: The loss @ Alabama is probably not enough to knock them back too far, but I get the feeling this Bulldogs team is underachieving. Oh well.
Mississippi: Not in any real danger at this point. Continue winning the gimmes and the Rebels will be safely in.
Bubble teams:
Likely not in:
Florida: The Michigan State and Florida State wins can only carry you so far. Florida’s clearly 4th in the pecking order in the East and will need some wins against the top three to get in.
Atlantic 10:
Things behind Temple are starting to get somewhat muddled. Dayton and Rhode Island are moving in the wrong direction, while Xavier is holding steady. Can Charlotte make a run at a tournament spot? This conference could get anywhere from 2 to 5 teams in right now.
Locks: Temple
Should be in: None
Bubble teams:
Xavier: Man, don’t ever consider a team with three straight conference titles dead. They’re 5-1 with only a loss @ conference leading Temple. Good home win over Rhode Island on Saturday. The non-conference isn’t the best, with five losses and only a double OT win over Cincinnati to show for it. Their margin of error is slim, but they’re doing what’s necessary.
Dayton: Uh oh. The loss @ St. Joseph’s makes things interesting. Dayton hasn’t had a good win in about a month and a half and the St. Joseph’s loss gives the committee ammo to keep them out. A couple of good wins vs. Georgia Tech and Old Dominion. Dayton’s still probably in if the season ended today though.
Rhode Island: The Xavier win could’ve been huge for a team in need of some good wins. Record is still awesome, but most of those wins were against relative cupcakes. They go to Dayton on Tuesday, who is reeling. Perfect opportunity to get a quality win, on the road too.
Likely not in:
Charlotte: I’ll put them in there for now, as the Louisville win is looking better, but still not enough on the resume to make a serious case.
Mountain West
Another conference where parity may cost a team a bid, although in the MWC’s case BYU appears to be pulling away from the pack. Colorado State has started off strong, but they played some easy teams early. Outside of BYU, three teams appear to have significant cases to make the tournament. One of two will likely fall out along the way.
Locks: BYU
Should be in:
New Mexico: Their two losses in conference aren’t really that bad, and unlike the other bubble teams in the conference, they can afford a not-so-stellar conference record. BYU comes to town Wednesday for what should be an awesome game.
Bubble Teams:
UNLV: Would be in much better shape had they not lost at home to Utah. As it stands, They have wins vs. Louisville, @ New Mexico, vs. San Diego St., and a couple of assorted not as good wins. Probably in right now, but they don’t want to test the committee any more. That means no losing until February 6th at home vs. BYU.
Likely not in:
San Diego State: Tough loss at Wyoming hurts a team that has really no margin of error. Won at home vs. New Mexico, which is nice, but they may be a victim of the parity of the conference.
Others:
The mid-major landscape has been a bit of a mixed bag at this point. They have benefitted greatly from the fallout of a power conference (the Pac-10) but all of those spots will likely be taken by the A-10 and MWC, meaning at-large bids will be at a premium again for smaller conferences. Several likely candidates have emerged but none are really pulling away from the pack.
Locks: Gonzaga, Butler
Should be in:
Northern Iowa: Lost at Wichita State, but that will happen in a tough conference and that’s only their 2nd loss of the year. The MVC champ will get a bid, and that means UNI is in good shape.
Bubble Teams:
St. Mary's: Lost their best shot at home vs. Gonzaga, but did beat Portland. Decent wins over San Diego State and Oregon. It may come down to beating Gonzaga once in their three shots at them this season (should they meet in the WCC tournament).
Cornell: One of the most interesting cases we may see this season. My opinion on the Big Red: if you can’t beat Harvard in a best of three (split the regular season matchups, lose in a playoff to determine Ivy League winner), you shouldn’t be in. Plus if they don’t, they don’t have the wins to get in. Sorry. It would be fun to see them going up against some unfortunate 5 or 6 seed in the first round though.
Old Dominion: Tied with George Mason and Northeastern for the league lead, ODU has the big out of conference win vs. Georgetown but have 5 losses. They are the best team in the Colonial but they may not get an at-large if they don’t win the tournament, even if they win the conference.
UAB: One of four undefeated teams in conference. The Blazers have been the best team in the C-USA thus far, and have wins over Cincinnati and Butler. Losses to Kent St. and Virginia do hurt.
Memphis: Forgetting the name, the Tigers really have done little to suggest they're a tournament team. They do have some big games in conference, though, and are still a definite contender to win the C-USA.
In Contention:
None of these teams will be in at the moment, but they're some names to remember: William & Mary, VCU, Tulsa, UTEP, William & Mary, Tulsa, UTEP, Wichita State, Portland, Siena, Utah State, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Harvard.
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