Welcome to the first bubble watch of the season! This is actually a combined bracketology/bubble watch section, with a heavy emphasis on the teams that are "on the bubble", or in danger of missing the tournament. Since there are still many games to be played, the bubble is quite soft, with lots of teams still having a viable shot at making it. What follows is a conference by conference preview of each team that still has a reasonable shot at being a tournament team, followed by their status (lock, likely in, on the bubble, likely not in, slim chance) along with an expected seed in the tournament. As mentioned earlier, many games are still to be played, so expect a lot of movement within the next few weeks. Let's get it started...
ACC
The ACC appears to be the same this year as it has been the previous few years: UNC and Duke, followed by a bunch of mid-level teams that are all fighting for a tournament spot. The conference is more compact this year than in previous years, though; UNC and Duke aren't quite as good. Clemson can move into that first tier with a win at Duke tonight, and Florida State has been solid, but it's a mixed bag for the rest of the conference. I probably should bump UNC out for their loss to College of Charleston, but whatever. They'll make it.
Locks: UNC (4), Duke (2)
Should be in:
Clemson (6): No real reason to keep Clemson out at this point, despite the poor effort at Duke on Sunday. They'll get another good shot vs. UNC next Wednesday. At home.
Florida State (5): Losses @ Florida and @ Ohio State with Evan Turner are nothing to be ashamed of, and good neutral court wins over Alabama and Marquette and @ Georgia Tech put them in good position to make the tournament. Some tricky mid-level conference games before they travel to Duke on the 27th.
Bubble teams:
Georgia Tech (7): Young team has been steady, if not spectacular. No marquee wins, but good wins over Siena, Charlotte, and USC and only two losses, both to tournament teams (Dayton, FSU). They'll have plenty of shots at good teams in ACC play. I think they're the 5th best team in the ACC and good enough to get in, but the real question is, are they that much better than Wake Forest, Miami, and Maryland that they'll get above .500 in ACC play? If they can get to 9-10 wins in ACC play, I think that'll be enough.
Miami (11): Excellent non-conference slate against a weak schedule capped by win over Minnesota. Loss to BC looking worse and worse though. Their 13-1 record doesn't tell us much. They only get one shot against Duke and @ UNC, which means less chances for marquee wins but a better chance at more wins. This team appears to be in at the moment, but will need to prove themselves, starting on Saturday when fellow bubbler Wake Forest comes into town.
Wake Forest (7): Survived in OT against Xavier and are looking better and better as the No shame at losing @ Purdue, and the William & Mary loss actually looks somewhat acceptable. Win @ Gonzaga put them on the map, and solid home win vs. Richmond gives Wake some momentum heading into ACC play. Like the two above them, they'll need to stay above .500 in the ACC to stay in the tournament mix.
Virginia Tech: Like Miami, they had an impressive non-conference record at 12-1, but the record doesn't have much to back it up. Good neutral court win vs. Seton Hall on Saturday is their best win so far. We'll find out more about this team next Saturday @ UNC, where at the very least, a good showing will help them gain some credibility.
Likely not in:
Maryland: I expected more out of this team. None of the 4 losses are particularly bad, but they were all four shots to get good wins heading into ACC play. As it stands, their best win is @ Indiana, which is marginally okay. Florida State comes into Terp country next Sunday, and a win is essential for a Maryland team that probably needs 10+ wins to get in.
North Carolina State: Heartbreaking loss to Florida puts a dent in the Wolfpack's tournament hopes. Like Virginia Tech and Miami though, the Wolfpack are probably closer to a bid than you might expect. Best win so far is @ Marquette, which is actually pretty good for a bubble team. Losses vs Northwestern, Wake Forest, and @ Arizona are not awful, although it's probably telling that they're 1-4 vs. potential bubble teams.
Big East
The big word for this conference so far is parity. Like the ACC, lack of an elite team means there's opportunities for the mid-level teams to get some good wins. Last year, a top heavy conference meant the top feasted on the middle and resulted in 7 bids out of what was initially projected to be a 9 or even 10 team league. While the conference may not be as strong at the top as it once was, it may get more teams in this year.
Locks: Syracuse (2), West Virginia (2), Villanova (2), Georgetown (3)
Should be in:
UConn (5): Loss @ Cincinnati somewhat countered by win at home vs. ND. They've looked somewhat sketchy at times this year but barring a tremendous collapse should be a lock in no time.
Bubble teams:
Pittsburgh (7): Huge win @ Syracuse puts an exclamation point on a resume that was somewhat lacking up until this point. Best win before was Wichita State, with a somewhat ugly neutral court loss to Indiana also thrown in there. Then followed that up with a road win vs. Cincinnati, letting us know they're for real. 3 of next 5 conference games are against fellow bubble teams, and the other two are @ UConn and Georgetown so a good start will be important. No rest in the Big East.
Cincinnati (9): Solid, if unspectacular, non-conference results. Wins vs. Vanderbilt and Maryland balanced by losses vs. Gonzaga, Xavier, and UAB. Big home win in their first conference game vs. UConn but let one slip away vs. Pitt. Offensively I question whether or not this team is good enough to do anything in the tournament, but they're good for now. A relatively soft slate over the next month should allow the Bearcats to gain some momentum.
Marquette (9): One of the season's early surprise teams, the luster has worn off a bit. Wins over Xavier and Michigan don't look nearly as good now as they used to, and near misses vs. Florida State, West Virginia, and Villanova could really come back to hurt them. The Golden Eagles must rebound this week when they play Georgetown on Wednesday and then go to Villanova on Saturday for the rematch. Neither are must-wins, but you really don't want to start 0-4 in Big East play.
St. John's: Bad loss to Providence now limits the Red Storm's margin of error. Still have three very winnable games before their game @ UConn on the 20th. Of the four, a loss to Cincinnati at home would probably be the only semi-acceptable one for a tournament team. Also have wins at Temple and vs. Siena.
Likely not in:
Seton Hall: Like Marquette, the Pirates also missed out on a couple of shots at good wins against West Virginia and Syracuse, and also fell in OT to Virginia Tech. They don't have the non-conference wins to back them up (best on is Cornell) so they need to start racking up conference wins, beginning on Wednesday @ UConn.
Louisville: The Cardinals weren't playing a difficult non-conference slate as it was, but losses to the only tough teams on their schedule leaves them with nothing resembling a decent win. Must take care of business @ Providence on Wednesday and at home vs. St. John's on Saturday.
Notre Dame: Nothing very exciting on the Irish's resume thus far, and an ugly loss at home vs. Loyola Marymount. They played UConn close on Saturday but the defense and support for Harangody offensively just isn't there. West Virginia comes to South Bend on Saturday and it would do them well to come out of that one with a win.
South Florida: Hanging on by a thread, the Bulls looked bad at Louisville last Wednesday, and that's definitely not a good sign. They need to start piling together some wins.
Big Ten
The Big Ten has steadily been the third best conference in the nation this year, behind the Big East and Big 12, and they look to stay that way for the time being. Purdue has been outstanding, and there have been some nice surprises and also some disappointments. In the end, I expect 5 or 6 teams to be dancing come March, which is slightly under preseason expectations.
Locks: Purdue (1)
Should be in:
Michigan State (4): Take away the preseason expectations and the ranking, and look at the resume. Is this a resume that screams lock to you? Not to me, at this point in the season. Doesn't mean they won't be a lock, just there's the possibility for collapse. Win at Northwestern keeps them on the right track.
Wisconsin (3): The biggest surprise of the year, the Badgers have the big win vs. Duke to fall back on and are probably a loss @ Green Bay away from being a lock. Still, a win @ Michigan State on Wednesday will move them to lock status.
Minnesota (7): I find it very hard to make an argument to keep Tubby's squad out of the tournament at this point. All losses are understandable (although the Portland loss is looking somewhat iffy) and a decent neutral court win over Butler is in the mix. Big opportunity to prove something @ Purdue on Tuesday, followed by a should win at home on Saturday vs. a Turner-less Ohio State.
Bubble Teams:
Ohio State (10): With Turner? This is a top 15 team, no question. Without Turner? I'm not sure this is a tournament team. They looked really, really bad at Wisconsin on New Year's Eve and the offense looks absolutely lost. Lost @ Michigan on Saturday and now really need a home win vs. Indiana before they go to Minnesota on Saturday. Turner's an ace in the hole, but they don't want to rely on him coming back 100% just to make the dance.
Illinois (12): I really like this team, but the losses are beginning to pile up. A massive comeback at the Unite Center vs. Gonzaga was stopped short, and the 9-5 Illini are not in a position to lose many more home games against decent opponents. Three bad losses remove any sparkle the Clemson, Vanderbilt, and Northwestern wins put on the Illini resume. Three must wins against the bottom of the Big Ten leading up to next Saturday's meeting with Michigan State in East Lansing.
Northwestern: Another one of the early season surprises, they let one slip away in Champaign before getting dominated in the 2nd half vs. Michigan State. They have ok wins vs. Iowa State and Notre Dame, but bigger wins will be necessary to impress the committee. The best chance for those are next week when Wisconsin and Purdue come into town on back-to-back games.
Likely not in:
Nobody. Michigan has been so terrible they don't even make this list. Indiana and Penn State have been better but neither has done enough to merit much consideration.
Big 12
The most top-heavy conference, with three teams in the top 10 and the top two teams in the country. I have Kansas St. as a lock to join Kansas and Texas. Other than those three, there's a fairly steep drop-off. The next best team, Texas A & M, is by no means a lock to get in, although they're probably safe right now. Beyond that, there are no guarantees.
Locks: Kansas (1), Texas (1), Kansas St. (3)
Should be in:
Texas A & M (6): The Aggies certainly wouldn't be left out if the season ended today, but they haven't separated themselves enough from the middle of the Big 12 to make me feel completely safe about their tournament chances. Two big road games at Kansas St. and Texas next week. Get one of two and they're probably locked up (for now).
Bubble teams:
Texas Tech (10): Had they lost at home to McNeese St. on New Year's, I'd feel a lot worse about their chances. As it stands, the Red Raiders have a wins over Washington and UTEP to brag about, and a couple of road losses to Wichita St. and New Mexico. Not bad losses, but doesn't exactly make you feel safe about making them a tournament team. More wins are necessary, but they're at least on the right side at the moment.
Baylor (9): The Bears are flying under the radar a bit, but they've rode one of the biggest starting lineups in the country to solid road wins over South Carolina and Arkansas and a neutral court win over Xavier. Kinda remind me of Florida State with their slow pace and size. Anyway, they're in good shape at the moment as well. Must take care of business at home vs. Oklahoma this Saturday and Oklahoma St. next Saturday.
Oklahoma State (10): The Cowboys haven't exactly disappointed as much as they haven't impressed. Still looking for that statement win, they beat Stanford by 1 and lost to Tulsa and Rhode Island, both away from Stillwater. Texas Tech comes into town on Saturday in what will be an important game bubble-wise.
Missouri (12): Probably closer to the bubble than you might expect. A good win against Illinois is looking worse, though, and they have a not-so-pretty loss to Oral Roberts on there as well. They have Kansas State at home on Saturday, and that would be a nice win to pick up. Otherwise, a string of bubble games before they pay a visit to Kansas on the 23rd.
Likely not in:
Oklahoma: Too many bad losses to consider them at this point. Next 5 games are against teams either in the tournament or on the bubble, but they'd probably have to go 4-1 or win all 5 to make some real noise.
Iowa State: Whiffed on all three chances to get a solid non-conference win (Northwestern, Northern Iowa, Cal) and unless they can take out Duke in Chicago, they must rely on winning games in a tough conference. Not that upsetting Duke isn't possible, but you get the idea.
Nebraska: They actually have a couple of decent wins over USC and Tulsa, but outside of that the cupboard is bare. Win at A & M on Saturday and we'll talk.
Pac-10
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the weakest power conference in major college basketball history. And that's probably not a joke. There's a really good chance only two Pac-10 teams are getting in (especially after the news that USC is banning themselves from postseason play takes away a potential bubble team) and there's an outside possibility only one gets in. That's how bad it is. No east coast bias this year... the west coast just sucks.
Locks: None
Should be in:
Washington (6): The strongest of the conference just lost at home to Oregon and are by no means locks to make the dance. They were lucky to hold on to their top 25 spot. The next two aren't cakewalks either (@ Arizona State, @ Arizona). I get the feeling this team may not hit the potential most people expected they had in the preseason.
Bubble teams:
Cal (8): There's actually a good argument to be made that the Bears are still the best team in this conference, but the resume doesn't support it at the moment. All four losses are perfectly understandable, but zero wins against likely tournament teams mean Cal has work to do. Putting away the other California schools this week would be a start.
Oregon: Pretty much left for dead since November, the Ducks have come storming back with two good wins at the Washington schools to put themselves on the map. And in this conference, two wins like that move you up to third best in the conference. Rivalry game at home vs. Oregon State looms on Sunday.
Washington State: Two of their three losses are road losses to Gonzaga and Kansas State, and a third was in double OT to Oregon, but absolutely no wins to speak of. With a weak conference slate coming up, the Cougars will need to make their case by sheer number of wins. They travel to Arizona and Arizona State this week and could use a couple of good road wins on their resume.
Arizona State: I thought Arizona State looked pretty good at MSG against Duke, and their non-conference slate was fairly good considering what they have to work with. But it's pretty clear they're undermanned, and two losses at UCLA and USC have them off to a bad start. No more margin of error for the Sun Devils, meaning they may need a sweep of the Washington schools this week to get in the bubble mix.
Likely not in:
Nobody else will sniff the postseason.
Not in: USC. This special section is to remind people that even though USC has played well recently, they have banned themselves due to the O. J. Mayo stuff. They won't play in the Pac-10 tournament either.
SEC
Kentucky, and a lot of mediocrity. The ball is up in the air with Tennessee after the suspensions, leaving Mississippi as the lone challenger to UK's throne. Mississippi State may have something to say about that as well. Lots of parity, especially out east, where three teams behind Kentucky will fight for what may be only one spot.
Locks: Kentucky (1), Mississippi (3)
Should be in:
Mississippi State (6): They have recovered nicely from an ugly early season loss to Rider and have several wins over good mid-major schools. They look to challenge Mississippi for the SEC West title and get their first shot at the Rebels on Saturday.
Bubble teams:
Tennessee (8): Would be in the "should be in" category except now Tyler Smith is gone and I'm not sure how the team will react to that. Important win at Memphis, however sloppy, is probably their selling point at the moment. Big opportunity when Kansas rolls into town on Sunday.
Florida (9): One of the early season giant-killers, the Michigan State win isn't quite the elite win they were hoping for at this point and they have a very bad home South Alabama loss to deal with. Still, their wins are as good as any other bubble team. How big will that 75-footer at NC State be at the end of the year? Big bubble game at Vanderbilt on Saturday before the UK game next Tuesday.
Vanderbilt: Speaking of the Commodores, they played in Maui and looked so-so. As a result, their resume looks pretty so-so as well. Wins over Missouri and St. Mary's, but losses to Illinois and Western Kentucky which are looking worse as the season goes on. Two home games this week, and Vandy will need to take care of business.
Likely not in:
South Carolina: Very quickly slipping out of contention. They get three easy ones before a bunch of must wins vs. Vanderbilt, Mississippi, and Florida.
Alabama: Resume just doesn't have enough to back it up. Baylor win is looking better, but they really need a home win vs. Vanderbilt next Monday.
Atlantic 10:
Probably one of the best mid-major conferences in recent memory, and that include the Missouri Valley conference that sent 4 to the dance a few years back. Four legitimate tournament teams, plus a very solid middle of the pack. Should be entertaining east coast basketball over the next two months.
Locks: None. Temple could've locked it up on Saturday but laid an egg at home vs. Kansas.
Should be in:
Temple (5): It's a shame they couldn't at least show up vs. Kansas, because it really would've capped off what's been an excellent non-conference season. I'm not convined they have the firepower to win the conference, but they'll certainly be up there. They go to Rhode Island on Sunday and would be wise to not duplicate the Kansas performance there.
Dayton (8): A couple of good wins vs. Georgia Tech and Old Dominion and three understandable losses. For my money they're still the best in this conference. Next Saturday they go to Xavier, never a fun place to play. A win would move them very close to lock status.
Bubble teams:
Richmond: While I wouldn't necessarily pick a Spider as my mascot, it's been good enough for Richmond. Three good wins over Missouri, Old Dominion, and Florida equal out four not-so-good losses. Margin for error is small, but they can and should be 8-0 by the time they welcome Temple on February 6th.
Rhode Island (11): Don't know much about the Rhodies? Well, they beat Oklahoma State last Saturday and are 11-1, even though their schedule has been pretty weak. They'll put themselves on the map if they take down Temple at home on Sunday.
Xavier: Who would've thought this team would be fifth-best in the conference after three straight titles? In any case, the Musketeers have had their opportunities but really only have a double OT home win over Cincinnati to show for it. That's not going to be enough. Dayton at home in two Saturdays will do, though.
Mountain West
Another great year for the MWC, who looks to be in line to get three teams in and quite possibly a fourth. Once again, the parity at the top may benefit the conference in terms of sheer number of teams dancing in March.
Locks: None.
Should be in:
BYU (5): Can't really envision a scenario where the Cougars don't make it, but we'll hold out for one more week. Two important games vs. UNLV on Wednesday and @ New Mexico on Saturday.
New Mexico (4): Same as above.
Bubble Teams:
UNLV (11): The Runnin' Rebels took out Louisville for the 2nd straight year and have a couple of nice-looking wins here and there, but not enough to wow anybody. Losses to Kansas State and USC could be worse. Two big, big road games vs. the big boys in the conference (BYU and New Mexico) could be instrumental in getting UNLV into the dance.
San Diego State: One of my favorites from last year, the Aztecs are doing it again... sort of. They have next to nothing in the non-conference, but hey, that's where they were at last year when a big early season conference win over Utah put them in contention for a tournament spot. Can they do the same at home against New Mexico on Tuesday? We'll find out.
Others:
The mid-major landscape has been a bit of a mixed bag at this point. They have benefitted greatly from the fallout of a power conference (the Pac-10) but all of those spots will likely be taken by the A-10 and MWC, meaning at-large bids will be at a premium again for smaller conferences. Several likely candidates have emerged but none are really pulling away from the pack.
Locks: None.
Should be in:
Gonzaga (4): The Zags have been up and down this non-conference, but they should clean out the WCC and get in the tournament again. Or will they? Well, we'll know soon. Their two toughest conference games, @ Portland and @ St. Mary's, take place in the next two weeks.
Butler (8): Never really got going this non-conference season and somehow they're still ranked in the coaches' poll. Go figure. Anyway, they've started 3-0 in conference and have wins over a Turner-less Ohio State team and Xavier for backup. Wright State, the next best team in the Horizon, hosts the Bulldogs on Friday.
Northern Iowa (10): Record makes them look better than they actually are, but hard to argue with 12-1. Plus the Missouri Valley champ will likely get a bid. A couple of tough road games vs. Southern Illinois and Illinois St. await.
Bubble Teams:
St. Mary's (11): Yes, the Gaels are actually playing better now that Patty Mills is gone. Anyway, no wins over tournament teams, but decent wins over San Diego State and Oregon. As mentioned earlier, important game next Thursday when big boy Gonzaga comes to visit.
VCU: Another entertaining season for the Colonial. The Rams are back in the tournament hunt, but they have some new competition in the form of Old Dominion and William & Mary, who both have solid wins to speak of. Still, if the conference is going to get an at-large team in, it will likely have to be VCU, with wins over fellow bubblers Rhode Island and Richmond. Already lost at William & Mary, but they'll try to get revenge on the 20th.
Cornell: Wait, what?? We're talking about putting an Ivy League team in with an at-large bid? And Harvard's good too? Hold on a second, my head's spinning... anyway, the Ivy League favorites actually have an argument that they don't need the Ivy auto bid to get in. Well, sort of. Can they beat Kansas on Wednesday? Wouldn't that be something...
Missouri State: The other MVC challenger, they fell at Northern Iowa on Sunday but are still 2-1 in conference and have a non-conference win over Tulsa. Probably not good enough for anything, but at least they have that.
UAB (12): The Blazers have been the best team in the C-USA thus far, with wins over Cincinnati and Butler. Losses to Kent St. and Virginia do hurt. Hard to see the C-USA champ not getting a bid, but no guarantees.
Memphis: Forgetting the name, the Tigers really have done little to suggest they're a tournament team. They go to Syracuse on Wednesday in desperate need of a good win.
In Contention:
None of these teams will be in at the moment, but they're some names to remember: Tulsa, UTEP, Old Dominion, William & Mary, Tulsa, UTEP, Wichita State, Portland, Siena, Utah State, Louisiana Tech.
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