The last power conference preview! Today it's the SEC. While this conference was worse than bad last year, the SEC looks to be much improved this year, due to young teams getting a year older and the majority of the top players staying in college. Oh yea, and this guy named John Calipari is coaching at Kentucky. Shall we continue?
The Favorites:
Kentucky: Let me just say that I think the Wildcats are the most intriguing preseason team in college basketball. With one hire the Wildcats went from likely NIT team to National Championship contenders. Calipari was taken away from Memphis after the Billy Gillespie mess, and with him came some of the top recruits in the country, including guard John Wall and 6-11 center DeMarcus Cousins. Both should start alongside Patrick Patterson, and Cousins should allow Patterson to move to the 3 and out on the wing where he should get more freedom to score in a variety of ways. Other freshman coming off the bench include big man and defensive stud Daniel Orton and guard Eric Bledsoe.
Despite all the hype surronding this Wildcats team, let's take a step back for a moment. Yes, they are talented, athletic, and skilled. But when has a team with this many freshman playing so many important minutes ever won the title? The returning players are essentially an NIT team minus Jodie Meeks. Sure, Patterson is very good, and Stevenson is solid at the 5, but the rest of these guys are basically role players. There is very little experienced leadership coming back. Due to that fact, and the number of question marks surrounding the young freshman, I am not going to pick Kentucky to win the SEC this year. That being said, I reserve the right to change my picks at any time (as always!)
Mississippi State: Yes, I am taking the Bulldogs to win the conference. Why? They return the best shotblocker in the country in Jarvis Vernardo, and one of the better point guards in the country in Dee Bost. Add in Ravern Johnson, a 40% shooter from three, and 2nd leading scorer Barry Stewart, and Mississippi State has plenty of backcourt experience returning. There's plenty of other contributors returning to a team that caught fire in last year's SEC tournament and took it all.
There is definitely a question as to where the ceiling lies for this Bulldogs team. Obviously, it's not as big as Kentucky's. Vernardo would do well to improve his game offensively to complement his status as a defensive player. As it stands, this team has a lot of experience returning and looks to be the strongest of the improved SEC West division.
Team that could surprise:
Vanderbilt: The SEC, like other major conferences, is somewhat muddled in the middle and many teams could emerge as tournament contenders. I'm going to take the Commodores, who return one of the few true centers in the league (and the nation) in A. J. Ogilvy. Excellent shooters Jermaine Beal and Brad Tinsley return as well, and incoming freshman John Jenkins has a reputation as a sharp shooter, so the threes will be flying in Nashville. Also, it's never fun to play in Vandy. The Commodore will surprise some people this year.
Team that could disappoint:
Kentucky: This is a no-brainer for me, only because expectations are so high. To some extent, I can't blame them... they got one of the best coaches in the college game and the clear #1 recruiting class in the nation. It's just a lot of pressure to put on youngsters, even if they're guys like John Wall who are ready for it. I think this is definitely a Sweet 16 team. I'm just not sure if they're a championship caliber team yet.
Picks:
SEC East
1. Kentucky: Still the best in this division.
2. Tennessee: They return all five starters, although I question how good this team can be overall.
3. Vanderbilt: Ogilvy and a host of outside shooters are ready to make a significant jump this season.
4. South Carolina: Difficult to pick against Devan Downey and four starters, but they'll have to find a 2nd scorer to replace Zam Fredrick.
5. Florida: Someone needs to take the leadership role Nick Calathes assumed last year, but the talent is there.
6. Georgia: Somewhat overmatched in a difficult division.
SEC West
1. Mississippi State: Some have been predicting Final Four for the Bulldogs. Seems a little optimistic to me, but SEC champ is not unrealistic.
2. Mississippi: The Rebels return three starters who were hurt last year. They will be deep and talented, especially in the backcourt.
3. Arkansas: Young team last year beat Texas and Oklahoma and will be ready for SEC play this season.
4. LSU: Lost their three top producers, but Tasmin Mitchell is back, and that should keep the Tigers from slipping too far.
5. Alabama: Anthony Grant will have this team ready in time, but not this year.
6. Auburn: Too much talent is gone and not enough talent replaces them.
Tournament teams:
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Mississippi
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Friday, November 6, 2009
Season Preview: Pac 10
Two years ago the Pac-10 was arguably the best conference in the nation. This year, the conference is a shell of its former self, losing most of its big name talent to graduation and the draft. As always, that means lots of turnover on top of the conference and a big mess in the middle. Only two Pac-10 teams made the preseason top 25 poll, and they're names you wouldn't expect when you list traditional Pac-10 basketball powerhouses. In fact, those powerhouses, like UCLA and Arizona, will likely be fighting just to make the tournament this season.
The Favorites:
Washington: The Huskies are probably the closest thing to a title contender in the Pac-10 this season. Their backcourt of Isaiah Thomas, Abdul Gaddy, and Venoy Overton is, in my opinion, the best in the conference. The frontcourt is manned by wingman Quincy Pondexter, who made great strides offensively at the end of last season. However, forward Jon Brockman is gone, meaning the Huskies need to replace their best rebounder and inside scorer. Talented wing Justin Dentmon is gone too. Washington will have a good starting 5 this year but depth could be an issue, and they don't really have anyone to replace Brockman in the post (or Dentmon for that matter, although Pondexter could fill his production).
Cal: The Golden Bears will be in every game they play this year because they are one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. They return nearly every major component from a team that was #1 in 3 pt shooting percentage (almost 43% from three!). The backcourt remains completely intact from last year with Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher forming an excellent duo at 1 and 2 guard. Cal is not neccessarily small, although forwards Harper Kamp and Theo Robinson are coming back from offseason surgery. Jamal Boykin is a monster on the glass and should round out the starting five. The bench contains some solid players, like guard Jorge Gutierrez, but Cal seemed to run a short bench last year and will likely do the same this year.
Team likely to surprise:
Arizona: After Cal and Washington, the Pac-10 is wide, wide open this season. The Wildcats have some humongous shoes to replace in Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill, but they do return one of the best guards in the league in Nic Wise and have a star studded recruiting class coming in (thanks to USC and the Tim Floyd situation). While picking a team with so many new pieces to finish top three in the league may seem a little farfetched, let me remind you that the general consensus pick for 3rd place in the conference (UCLA) is losing their top four producers. That's when you know there's a little bit of mediocrity in the Pac-10. Also a candidate for this spot is Washington State, who gets an up-tempo coach in Ken Bone and has some nice pieces to play with for this upcoming season.
Team likely to disappoint:
UCLA: With so many teams having lowered expectations this year, it's difficult to choose a team that could finish below them. Oregon needs to have a good season to keep Ernie Kent's job intact. But I'll take the Bruins, who haven't lost this many important players since before their Final Four runs. There will likely be 7 freshman or sophomores fighting for significant playing time, and this team could run into some problems early. It's unreasonable (even by my leiniant standards this preseason) to expect them to finish anywhere below 5th in conference, but even that may mean an NIT bid this season.
Predicted Finish:
1. Washington: Most complete team in the conference. Over the long haul, that usually wins out.
2. Cal: Great knockout potential, but can they live up to the expectations?
3. Arizona: Probably a little outrageous, but there is no substitute for athleticism and talent.
4. Oregon State: The Beavers give hope for all the DePauls, Iowas, and North Carolina States of the world.
5. UCLA: It will be interesting to see who emerges on a team that doesn't have a clear leader at this point.
6. Washington State: Klay Thompson and DeAngelo Casto form a solid basis to build off.
7. Oregon: The Ducks will likely need to finish higher than this to save Ernie Kent's job.
8. USC: Hope is on the way next year, but program is currently in shambles after the Tim Floyd fiasco.
9. Arizona St.: No Harden? No Pendergraph? Back to square one for the Sun Devils.
10. Stanford: Most people aren't feeling the Cardinal this year.
Tournament Teams:
Washington, Cal, Arizona, UCLA
The Favorites:
Washington: The Huskies are probably the closest thing to a title contender in the Pac-10 this season. Their backcourt of Isaiah Thomas, Abdul Gaddy, and Venoy Overton is, in my opinion, the best in the conference. The frontcourt is manned by wingman Quincy Pondexter, who made great strides offensively at the end of last season. However, forward Jon Brockman is gone, meaning the Huskies need to replace their best rebounder and inside scorer. Talented wing Justin Dentmon is gone too. Washington will have a good starting 5 this year but depth could be an issue, and they don't really have anyone to replace Brockman in the post (or Dentmon for that matter, although Pondexter could fill his production).
Cal: The Golden Bears will be in every game they play this year because they are one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. They return nearly every major component from a team that was #1 in 3 pt shooting percentage (almost 43% from three!). The backcourt remains completely intact from last year with Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher forming an excellent duo at 1 and 2 guard. Cal is not neccessarily small, although forwards Harper Kamp and Theo Robinson are coming back from offseason surgery. Jamal Boykin is a monster on the glass and should round out the starting five. The bench contains some solid players, like guard Jorge Gutierrez, but Cal seemed to run a short bench last year and will likely do the same this year.
Team likely to surprise:
Arizona: After Cal and Washington, the Pac-10 is wide, wide open this season. The Wildcats have some humongous shoes to replace in Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill, but they do return one of the best guards in the league in Nic Wise and have a star studded recruiting class coming in (thanks to USC and the Tim Floyd situation). While picking a team with so many new pieces to finish top three in the league may seem a little farfetched, let me remind you that the general consensus pick for 3rd place in the conference (UCLA) is losing their top four producers. That's when you know there's a little bit of mediocrity in the Pac-10. Also a candidate for this spot is Washington State, who gets an up-tempo coach in Ken Bone and has some nice pieces to play with for this upcoming season.
Team likely to disappoint:
UCLA: With so many teams having lowered expectations this year, it's difficult to choose a team that could finish below them. Oregon needs to have a good season to keep Ernie Kent's job intact. But I'll take the Bruins, who haven't lost this many important players since before their Final Four runs. There will likely be 7 freshman or sophomores fighting for significant playing time, and this team could run into some problems early. It's unreasonable (even by my leiniant standards this preseason) to expect them to finish anywhere below 5th in conference, but even that may mean an NIT bid this season.
Predicted Finish:
1. Washington: Most complete team in the conference. Over the long haul, that usually wins out.
2. Cal: Great knockout potential, but can they live up to the expectations?
3. Arizona: Probably a little outrageous, but there is no substitute for athleticism and talent.
4. Oregon State: The Beavers give hope for all the DePauls, Iowas, and North Carolina States of the world.
5. UCLA: It will be interesting to see who emerges on a team that doesn't have a clear leader at this point.
6. Washington State: Klay Thompson and DeAngelo Casto form a solid basis to build off.
7. Oregon: The Ducks will likely need to finish higher than this to save Ernie Kent's job.
8. USC: Hope is on the way next year, but program is currently in shambles after the Tim Floyd fiasco.
9. Arizona St.: No Harden? No Pendergraph? Back to square one for the Sun Devils.
10. Stanford: Most people aren't feeling the Cardinal this year.
Tournament Teams:
Washington, Cal, Arizona, UCLA
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Season Preview: Big 10
Ah yes, the Big Ten. My country. I feel like I know this conference the best since I watch these teams the most. That doesn't mean my predictions will be any good, but still... anyway, the Big Ten has become quite a formidable conference in just a few years, and after Michigan State's big tournament run last year, the top of the conference has proven they can compete with the big boys. 1 through 11, this conference is as deep as it gets in college basketball.
The Favorites:
Purdue: Come on... you didn't honestly think I wasn't gonna pick my Boilers to win the conference, did you? I will admit we may be small, we may have some depth issues, and we may not be the most athletic team out there. But last year when Purdue peaked, we took out a tough Washington team in what was basically a road game and then put up a good fight against a very, very good UConn team. And that was without Robbie Hummel at 100%. This year, he claims he's perfectly healthy, which is a scary thought.
We all know what Hummel can do when he's healthy, but they key will be the guys around him. JuJuan Johnson took a huge step up last year (I called that one, by the way) but needs to get stronger to take his game to the next level. He will also have to shoulder a bigger load in the paint now that Nemanja Calasan is gone and Sandi Marcius is out with a broken foot. E'Twaun Moore gets a ton of national praise and was our leading scorer, but he needs to be more selective with his shots. Lewis Jackson must mature another year at the point, and Grant needs to become the shooter he was two years ago. If all of that (or most of that) can happen, I truly believe this is a Final Four team. And the Final Four's in Indy. The sky's the limit.
Michigan State: It's difficult to pick against the National runners-up, especially when they return most of their production. Kalin Lucas is back. Raymar Morgan should be 100% healthy for the entire season. Durrell Summers and Chris Allen solidify the Spartan backcourt, and they should also have a slew of wings/power forwards to choose from in Morgan, Delvon Roe, and Draymond Green. Basically, this team goes 2 deep at every position and we should expect a decent spread of minutes again this year.
By far the biggest contributor leaving is Suton. He did so much for the Spartans, whether it's rebounding, defense, shooting, leadership. Michigan State has plenty of options to replace him, but no one will likely provide the production across the board that Suton did. They also lose guard Travis Walton who provided defense and leadership. From reading about Michigan State, I feel they are at a bit of a crossroads. They can move forward and make another title run, or fall back into that clutter 2nd tier pack of teams. It will be interesting to see how this team develops as the season progresses.
Team who could surprise:
Northwestern: I have two different routes I could take here. I could tell you Ohio State has the potential to be a top 5 team (somewhat out there, but also somewhat boring) or I could call for the Wildcats to make their first tournament appearance ever. I'll go with the latter. Northwestern returns almost every major piece from a team that was probably one win away from making the tournament last year. They'll have to find a point guard to replace Craig Moore, but if they can find a guy that can handle the ball somewhat and can shoot, the Wildcats will probably be better than last year. They were the most frustrating team to prepare for in the Big Ten last season, and after wins at Purdue and at Michigan State, they have knockout power. This is the year they will get it done.
Team who could disappoint:
Illinois: While most teams in the conference improved this season, I think the Illini are going to take a slight step back. They lost Trent Meachem and Chester Frazier, along with their defense and leadership. There are a few good freshman, but they will have to immediately step up and contribute. D. J. Richardson is very highly touted and should start right away, but Brandon Paul and Tyler Griffey will have to produce right away off the bench. Illinois must become less of a jump shooting team and start getting to the basket more. They have the tools to become a good offensive team, but in a deep league defensively, I think this young team will struggle.
Picks:
1. Purdue: A healthy Hummel will make all the difference in the world.
2. Michigan State: Was this team for real, or just last year's feel good story?
3. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have the potential to be a top 5 team. Evan Turner is the best player in the conference.
4. Michigan: They have the talent to jump up a spot of two from this position... if they can find a PG.
5. Minnesota: The definition of steady, you know what you're going to get from this team. 65 points a game, slow pace, good defense.
6. Northwestern: The element of surprise is gone this year. Will teams be able to adequately prepare for their style?
7. Illinois: Demetri McCamey needs to become a more consistent scorer instead of just showing flashes of greatness.
8. Wisconsin: I feel like this pick is going to come back and get me, but somebody has to finish 8th. The losses are too great this year.
9. Indiana: The youngsters will be good down the road, but too difficult of a conference this season.
10. Penn State: Teams will start doubling Talor Battle... and then tripling if they have to.
11. Iowa: Football team will likely stay undefeated longer than the basketball team.
Tournament Teams:
Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois
The Favorites:
Purdue: Come on... you didn't honestly think I wasn't gonna pick my Boilers to win the conference, did you? I will admit we may be small, we may have some depth issues, and we may not be the most athletic team out there. But last year when Purdue peaked, we took out a tough Washington team in what was basically a road game and then put up a good fight against a very, very good UConn team. And that was without Robbie Hummel at 100%. This year, he claims he's perfectly healthy, which is a scary thought.
We all know what Hummel can do when he's healthy, but they key will be the guys around him. JuJuan Johnson took a huge step up last year (I called that one, by the way) but needs to get stronger to take his game to the next level. He will also have to shoulder a bigger load in the paint now that Nemanja Calasan is gone and Sandi Marcius is out with a broken foot. E'Twaun Moore gets a ton of national praise and was our leading scorer, but he needs to be more selective with his shots. Lewis Jackson must mature another year at the point, and Grant needs to become the shooter he was two years ago. If all of that (or most of that) can happen, I truly believe this is a Final Four team. And the Final Four's in Indy. The sky's the limit.
Michigan State: It's difficult to pick against the National runners-up, especially when they return most of their production. Kalin Lucas is back. Raymar Morgan should be 100% healthy for the entire season. Durrell Summers and Chris Allen solidify the Spartan backcourt, and they should also have a slew of wings/power forwards to choose from in Morgan, Delvon Roe, and Draymond Green. Basically, this team goes 2 deep at every position and we should expect a decent spread of minutes again this year.
By far the biggest contributor leaving is Suton. He did so much for the Spartans, whether it's rebounding, defense, shooting, leadership. Michigan State has plenty of options to replace him, but no one will likely provide the production across the board that Suton did. They also lose guard Travis Walton who provided defense and leadership. From reading about Michigan State, I feel they are at a bit of a crossroads. They can move forward and make another title run, or fall back into that clutter 2nd tier pack of teams. It will be interesting to see how this team develops as the season progresses.
Team who could surprise:
Northwestern: I have two different routes I could take here. I could tell you Ohio State has the potential to be a top 5 team (somewhat out there, but also somewhat boring) or I could call for the Wildcats to make their first tournament appearance ever. I'll go with the latter. Northwestern returns almost every major piece from a team that was probably one win away from making the tournament last year. They'll have to find a point guard to replace Craig Moore, but if they can find a guy that can handle the ball somewhat and can shoot, the Wildcats will probably be better than last year. They were the most frustrating team to prepare for in the Big Ten last season, and after wins at Purdue and at Michigan State, they have knockout power. This is the year they will get it done.
Team who could disappoint:
Illinois: While most teams in the conference improved this season, I think the Illini are going to take a slight step back. They lost Trent Meachem and Chester Frazier, along with their defense and leadership. There are a few good freshman, but they will have to immediately step up and contribute. D. J. Richardson is very highly touted and should start right away, but Brandon Paul and Tyler Griffey will have to produce right away off the bench. Illinois must become less of a jump shooting team and start getting to the basket more. They have the tools to become a good offensive team, but in a deep league defensively, I think this young team will struggle.
Picks:
1. Purdue: A healthy Hummel will make all the difference in the world.
2. Michigan State: Was this team for real, or just last year's feel good story?
3. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have the potential to be a top 5 team. Evan Turner is the best player in the conference.
4. Michigan: They have the talent to jump up a spot of two from this position... if they can find a PG.
5. Minnesota: The definition of steady, you know what you're going to get from this team. 65 points a game, slow pace, good defense.
6. Northwestern: The element of surprise is gone this year. Will teams be able to adequately prepare for their style?
7. Illinois: Demetri McCamey needs to become a more consistent scorer instead of just showing flashes of greatness.
8. Wisconsin: I feel like this pick is going to come back and get me, but somebody has to finish 8th. The losses are too great this year.
9. Indiana: The youngsters will be good down the road, but too difficult of a conference this season.
10. Penn State: Teams will start doubling Talor Battle... and then tripling if they have to.
11. Iowa: Football team will likely stay undefeated longer than the basketball team.
Tournament Teams:
Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Season Preview: Big 12
While other power conferences like the Big East, ACC, and Pac-10 were ravaged by the NBA draft, most of the big talent in the Big 12 chose to stick around, and as a result everywhere from 1st to 10th in conference should be highly contested. With two legit top 5 teams and National Championship contenders, and nine to ten teams that could make the tournament, the Big 12 is the best and deepest conference in the country. Like the Big East last year, there will likely be one or two teams that get some nice looking victories but end up on the wrong side of the tournament cut line due to poor performance in conference. Such is the nature of the beast this year in the Big 12.
The Favorites:
Kansas: Simply put, this is the clear #1 team in the nation. Everyone that contributed to this team last year returns. That includes top PG in the country Sheron Collins. That includes one of the best big men in the country in Cole Aldrich. That includes wings Tyshawn Taylor, Markieff Morris, and Maurice Morris. Oh, and if those guys don't work out, there's always frosh Xavier Henry and Thomas Robinson to help carry the scoring load. There's depth in the backcourt too, with Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed. There's really no weak point on this Jayhawks squad at the moment.
Now, the team has had to deal with their fair share of run-ins with the law. Morningstar has been suspended for the first semester after being arrested on suspected drunken driving. Tyshawn Taylor injured his finger in a fight with the school football team earlier this fall. Coach Bill Self is attempting to put these incidents behind his team and focus on basketball. As long as they're winning on the court, he shouldn't have too difficult of a time doing so.
Texas: Lots of talent returns, and lots of talent enters. Forward Damion James chose to stay in school and gives the Longhorns one of the best 3's in the country. Dexter Pittman is an absolute monster in the paint. Justin Mason was steady at the point. Gary Johnson, Varez Ward, and Douglas Balbay are solid backups. The only loss was three point specialist A. J. Abrams, and honestly, that's not always a bad thing, as Abrams bogged down the offense at times with his one-on-one showdowns and quick trigger for three pointers. The offense should be more spread out and should flow better this year.
The strength for Texas is in the backcourt. Jai Lucas, transfer from Florida, J'Covan Brown, star of the class of 2008 who is finally academically eligible, and frosh Avery Bradley join Mason, Balbay, and Ward in a fight for playing time. It's a good problem to have for sure. And with Pittman, Johnson, and James patroling the frontcourt, Texas is as close to a complete team as you're going to get. This is a top 5 team.
Team that could surprise:
Kansas State: Unlike other conferences where the middle is one big mess, I feel like there's a gap between the really good teams, the solid tournament teams, the fringe tournament teams, and the NIT and below teams. That means it can be difficult to envision scenarios where teams from those lower tiers make jumps up. That's not true for the Wildcats, who return two very talented guards in Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen and bring in uber-talented forward Wally Judge. Kansas State isn't getting a ton of press this year, but they have the potential to move up into the top 3 of the conference.
Team that could disappoint:
Oklahoma: Just like it's difficult to find sleepers, it can be difficult to guess which teams will not perform as well as expected. Maybe it's just because I want to see the good in every team... anyway, the team most likely to disappoint is the Sooners, simply because they relied so much on one player last year (Blake Griffin) and that man is gone this year. Guys like Juan Patillo and Tony Crocker are good role players, but not offensive leaders. That burden falls on young Willie Warren. I believe he's ready to take that step, but if he's not, OU will fall back, and in the slippery slope that is the Big 12, that could be more than just a few places in the standings.
Picks:
1. Kansas: Simply the most talent returning.
2. Texas: Everyone (including myself) expects big, big things out of the Longhorns this year.
3. Kansas State: Lots of returnees, decent amount of depth, and potent backcourt mean good things for the Wildcats.
4. Oklahoma State: One of the hottest teams in the country at the end of last year... but who will replace Eaton?
5. Oklahoma: Warren gets his opportunity to shine.
6. Missouri: They will be small, but they are dedicated to their style of play and will be fun to watch.
7. Texas A&M: Chinemelu Elonu is gone, but decent amount of talent still returns.
8. Iowa State: How far can Craig Brackins carry the Cyclones this year?
9. Baylor: Lots of turnover for the Bears this season, and in a dangerous conference. But the program is in good hands.
10. Texas Tech: Some good components, but this team needs to play some defense.
11. Nebraska: Got a lot out of a little last year... the conference is much better this season though.
12. Colorado: At least there's football... oh wait, maybe not.
Tournament Teams:
Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas A&M
The Favorites:
Kansas: Simply put, this is the clear #1 team in the nation. Everyone that contributed to this team last year returns. That includes top PG in the country Sheron Collins. That includes one of the best big men in the country in Cole Aldrich. That includes wings Tyshawn Taylor, Markieff Morris, and Maurice Morris. Oh, and if those guys don't work out, there's always frosh Xavier Henry and Thomas Robinson to help carry the scoring load. There's depth in the backcourt too, with Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed. There's really no weak point on this Jayhawks squad at the moment.
Now, the team has had to deal with their fair share of run-ins with the law. Morningstar has been suspended for the first semester after being arrested on suspected drunken driving. Tyshawn Taylor injured his finger in a fight with the school football team earlier this fall. Coach Bill Self is attempting to put these incidents behind his team and focus on basketball. As long as they're winning on the court, he shouldn't have too difficult of a time doing so.
Texas: Lots of talent returns, and lots of talent enters. Forward Damion James chose to stay in school and gives the Longhorns one of the best 3's in the country. Dexter Pittman is an absolute monster in the paint. Justin Mason was steady at the point. Gary Johnson, Varez Ward, and Douglas Balbay are solid backups. The only loss was three point specialist A. J. Abrams, and honestly, that's not always a bad thing, as Abrams bogged down the offense at times with his one-on-one showdowns and quick trigger for three pointers. The offense should be more spread out and should flow better this year.
The strength for Texas is in the backcourt. Jai Lucas, transfer from Florida, J'Covan Brown, star of the class of 2008 who is finally academically eligible, and frosh Avery Bradley join Mason, Balbay, and Ward in a fight for playing time. It's a good problem to have for sure. And with Pittman, Johnson, and James patroling the frontcourt, Texas is as close to a complete team as you're going to get. This is a top 5 team.
Team that could surprise:
Kansas State: Unlike other conferences where the middle is one big mess, I feel like there's a gap between the really good teams, the solid tournament teams, the fringe tournament teams, and the NIT and below teams. That means it can be difficult to envision scenarios where teams from those lower tiers make jumps up. That's not true for the Wildcats, who return two very talented guards in Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen and bring in uber-talented forward Wally Judge. Kansas State isn't getting a ton of press this year, but they have the potential to move up into the top 3 of the conference.
Team that could disappoint:
Oklahoma: Just like it's difficult to find sleepers, it can be difficult to guess which teams will not perform as well as expected. Maybe it's just because I want to see the good in every team... anyway, the team most likely to disappoint is the Sooners, simply because they relied so much on one player last year (Blake Griffin) and that man is gone this year. Guys like Juan Patillo and Tony Crocker are good role players, but not offensive leaders. That burden falls on young Willie Warren. I believe he's ready to take that step, but if he's not, OU will fall back, and in the slippery slope that is the Big 12, that could be more than just a few places in the standings.
Picks:
1. Kansas: Simply the most talent returning.
2. Texas: Everyone (including myself) expects big, big things out of the Longhorns this year.
3. Kansas State: Lots of returnees, decent amount of depth, and potent backcourt mean good things for the Wildcats.
4. Oklahoma State: One of the hottest teams in the country at the end of last year... but who will replace Eaton?
5. Oklahoma: Warren gets his opportunity to shine.
6. Missouri: They will be small, but they are dedicated to their style of play and will be fun to watch.
7. Texas A&M: Chinemelu Elonu is gone, but decent amount of talent still returns.
8. Iowa State: How far can Craig Brackins carry the Cyclones this year?
9. Baylor: Lots of turnover for the Bears this season, and in a dangerous conference. But the program is in good hands.
10. Texas Tech: Some good components, but this team needs to play some defense.
11. Nebraska: Got a lot out of a little last year... the conference is much better this season though.
12. Colorado: At least there's football... oh wait, maybe not.
Tournament Teams:
Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas A&M
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Season Preview: Big East
Last season, the Big East was the undisputed #1 conference in the land. With 7 teams making the tournament and 3 #1 seeds, the Big East was loaded from top to bottom. However, this year many of those teams lost their top players, meaning there has been a great deal of turnover at the top of the conference. It also means there will be plenty of movement in the middle of the conference throughout the year, as teams with young components mesh and thrive and others fall apart.
The Favorites:
West Virginia: My pick to win the Big East. They might have the best pair of wings in the country in Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler. The two averaged over 27 points per game between them last season and present many matchup problems across the board. If you include returning starter Wellington Smith, Kevin Jones, John Flowers, and Cam Thoroughman, you probably have one of the best frontcourts in the country.
In the backcourt, the Mountaineers have two legitimate starting PGs in Joe Mazzulla and Darryl Bryant. Casey Mitchell, a JUCO transfer, is expected to immediately fill the 2 guard role that opened after Alex Ruoff's graduation. All in all, this is a pretty complete team. Despite the lack of a true center, they go deep in the frontcourt and either Ebanks or Butler will likely have a smaller guy on them at the 3. This team was pretty solid defensively last year and I expect them to do the same again this year. All in all, West Virginia takes a big step up this season.
Villanova: There's no denying the Wildcats' talent in the backcourt. Scottie Reynolds made himself a household name last year with his Elite 8 heroics and should benefit greatly again from working off the ball. With Corey Fisher seeing some time at the 1, this allows Reynolds to focus on what he's good at: scoring. The two will be joined by three point specialist Corey Stokes to form the best backcourt in the conference. And that's with Reggie Redding out until mid-December.
The biggest question mark for Nova will be how they replace Dante Cunningham. Cunningham gave Nova a viable weapon on the wing and a potent scorer in the frontcourt. Replacing him will be returnee Antonio Pena, Duke transfer Taylor King, and freshman PF Mouphtaou Yarou. None of them have quite the skill set Cunningham had, but they should all provide offense in their own way. Depth could be slight problem as well in the frontcourt. These should be small issues and the Wildcats will be a Final Four contender again, but it does give reason to doubt their status as favorites in the Big East.
Team that could surprise:
Cincinnati: Picking out a surprise team is difficult due to the amount of uncertainty in the middle of the conference. UConn could be a pick here, but they already appear to have somewhat high expectations due to everyone else's losses. Same with Georgetown (although I have other opinions on them). If I had to pick a team that isn't expected to break the top quarter of the conference but will, I will go with the Bearcats. This is contingent on Lance Stepheson's status, but if he's ready to go, he will join Deonta Vaughn and Yancey Gates as a pretty darn good top three. Cashmere Wright is also expected to make a big contribution after he was hurt the entire season last year. Is top 4 in conference a stretch? Maybe. But a lot of teams in the Big East have reasons to doubt them.
Team that could disappoint:
Georgetown: This team's been pretty tough to figure out the past few seasons. Two years ago they drew a 2 seed but fell to Curry's magic men and Davidson. A year ago they were expected to be good again and they fell off the map by mid-February. John Thompson III claimed the team last year couldn't figure out how to win. After watching this team last year and seeing how quickly DaJuan Summers bolted for the NBA draft, it's pretty clear there were some issues last season. Greg Monroe has proven to be one of the top young big men in the college game, but he'll need to take a leadership role for the Hoyas in what appears to be a season of high expectations.
Picks:
1. West Virginia - Matchup problems all over the place and tough defense.
2. Villanova - If someone can replace Cunningham's production, look out.
3. UConn - Haven't been talked about much, but Jerome Dyson is back, and Kemba Walker is ready to step into the spotlight.
4. Cincinnati - Risky pick, but why not in a conference with so much turnover? The talent is there
5. Georgetown - Too much talent to have a repeat of last season, but be warry.
6. Syracuse - Lost a lot, but Arinze Onuaku is a beast and there is shooting on the perimeter.
7. Louisville - Two big losses in Earl Clark and Terrence Williams will likely force Louisville to slow down the tempo a bit more than last season.
8. Pitt - All veteran leadership is gone, and while the future is bright, expect a rebuilding year.
9. Marquette - See Pitt
10. Seton Hall - A lot of new faces will join the returning talent and attempt to make a tournament run.
11. Notre Dame - Harangody is back, which is good. McAlarney is gone, which is bad. Where's the ugly? The awful defense.
12. St. John's - Returned all five starters from last year. Unfortunately, those 5 starters led the Red Storm to 13th in the Big East last year.
13. Rutgers - Played a nightmare schedule last year and will have opportunities to win games.
14. Providence - Lost three of their biggest contributors. The Friars will take their lumps this year.
15. DePaul - I predict the Blue Demons to win at least one Big East game this season. Yes, in the regular season this time.
16. South Florida - Probably should stick to football.
Tournament Teams:
West Virginia, Villanova, UConn, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Syracuse, Louisville
Monday, November 2, 2009
Season Preview: ACC
The ACC has recently been dominated by one team: UNC. That trend doesn't seem likely to change, despite how much UNC lost this year. Many teams are good but none of them have really improved themselves enough to appear to pose a serious threat to UNC's reign at the top. Of course, UNC could always slump to the back of the pack after all the scoring they lost this season, but I wouldn't bet on that.
The Favorites:
UNC: Why do I have a team that lost 4 starters as the ACC champions? It's a rare situation for sure, and it may seem like I'm contradicting myself when I talk about Kentucky's situation later in the year. But here's why I'm confident in UNC: unlike many teams that lose that many pieces, UNC has veterans returning. Marcus Ginyard, Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller... these are all guys that recieved decent minutes for last year's National Champions and are poised to take a step up this season.
There's no denying the amount of talent UNC has. Davis should be All-Conference this year. John Henson should start immediately. The other freshman were all highly touted in high school. Ginyard has starting experience and is an excellent defender. The biggest concern will be at point guard. Larry Drew II will be running the show and is no Lawson in the backcourt. If Drew or somebody else can handle the fast pace of Roy Williams' UNC offense, the weapons are in place to make a Final Four run.
Duke: The Blue Devils have been overrated the past few years, and with Gerald Henderson gone, there's plenty of people that believe this will be Duke's worst season yet. Before we discuss Duke as a team, let's remember that Duke has had between 27 and 32 wins every year since the 1996-97 season (except for 2006-07), has 4 conference titles this decade and 7 conference tournament wins this decade. So Duke is still very much relevant in college basketball. That being said...
Duke's biggest problem last year was size. This year the signing of Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee should add plenty of much needed depth. The bigger problem is in the backcourt, where Henderson graduated and Elliot Williams transferred to Memphis. This means Duke will likely be rotating between three guards: Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and newcomer Andre Dawkins. If those three can hold the fort at the guard positions and Kelly and Plumlee step in and give Duke quality minutes, Duke can contend for a Final Four spot. Otherwise, well, there are plenty of 2nd tier ACC teams that could make a run at Duke for the 2nd spot in the conference.
Team that could surprise:
Maryland - The Terps return Greivis Vasquez, likely the best guard and possibly best player in the conference. That in itself is saying something in a conference that is somewhat devoid of experienced guards. Vasquez does everything for this team: pass, drive to the basket, defend, lead. Most of the supporting cast around him returns as well, including Landon Milbourne and Eric Hayes. We saw last year Maryland has knockout power, and I am picking them to rise out of the muddled mess that is the middle of the ACC.
Team that could disappoint:
Georgia Tech - Okay, okay. I know they got Derrick Favors. I know they got Mfon Udofia to run the point. I know Gani Lawal came back. I know about Iman Shumpert. Bottom line: this team went 2-14 last year in the ACC. Will they be a tournament team? Probably. But I need to see more before I predict anything higher than .500 in conference. Teams generally don't go from worst to top of the conference in one season, especially not in a crowded ACC.
Predicted Standings:
1. UNC - Too much talent and athleticism for it not to work out.
2. Duke - Wild card for the Devils may be how Scheyer runs the point.
3. Maryland - Vasquez's leadership and defense will make the difference.
4. Florida State - Solomon Alabi, Chris Singleton, and Derwin Kitchen form a solid core. But who will replace Toney Douglas's production?
5. Clemson - Trevor Booker will need to should more of an offensive load with K. C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby gone.
6. Boston College - Due to a well-balanced offense, they won't miss Tyrese Rice as much as initially thought.
7. Georgia Tech - Favors and Udofia will help, but a long way to go in a strong conference.
8. Wake Forest - Someone has to finish here, right? Demon Deacons in a transition state at the moment.
9. Virginia Tech - Not as much talent as the big boys, but they will be very competitive.
10. Miami (FL) - Rebuilding process begins with Jack McClinton gone.
11. Virginia - Sylven Landesberg needs more of a supporting cast around him.
12. NC State - In the not very distant past, this was a decent basketball program.
Tournament teams:
UNC, Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Georgia Tech
The Favorites:
UNC: Why do I have a team that lost 4 starters as the ACC champions? It's a rare situation for sure, and it may seem like I'm contradicting myself when I talk about Kentucky's situation later in the year. But here's why I'm confident in UNC: unlike many teams that lose that many pieces, UNC has veterans returning. Marcus Ginyard, Ed Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller... these are all guys that recieved decent minutes for last year's National Champions and are poised to take a step up this season.
There's no denying the amount of talent UNC has. Davis should be All-Conference this year. John Henson should start immediately. The other freshman were all highly touted in high school. Ginyard has starting experience and is an excellent defender. The biggest concern will be at point guard. Larry Drew II will be running the show and is no Lawson in the backcourt. If Drew or somebody else can handle the fast pace of Roy Williams' UNC offense, the weapons are in place to make a Final Four run.
Duke: The Blue Devils have been overrated the past few years, and with Gerald Henderson gone, there's plenty of people that believe this will be Duke's worst season yet. Before we discuss Duke as a team, let's remember that Duke has had between 27 and 32 wins every year since the 1996-97 season (except for 2006-07), has 4 conference titles this decade and 7 conference tournament wins this decade. So Duke is still very much relevant in college basketball. That being said...
Duke's biggest problem last year was size. This year the signing of Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee should add plenty of much needed depth. The bigger problem is in the backcourt, where Henderson graduated and Elliot Williams transferred to Memphis. This means Duke will likely be rotating between three guards: Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and newcomer Andre Dawkins. If those three can hold the fort at the guard positions and Kelly and Plumlee step in and give Duke quality minutes, Duke can contend for a Final Four spot. Otherwise, well, there are plenty of 2nd tier ACC teams that could make a run at Duke for the 2nd spot in the conference.
Team that could surprise:
Maryland - The Terps return Greivis Vasquez, likely the best guard and possibly best player in the conference. That in itself is saying something in a conference that is somewhat devoid of experienced guards. Vasquez does everything for this team: pass, drive to the basket, defend, lead. Most of the supporting cast around him returns as well, including Landon Milbourne and Eric Hayes. We saw last year Maryland has knockout power, and I am picking them to rise out of the muddled mess that is the middle of the ACC.
Team that could disappoint:
Georgia Tech - Okay, okay. I know they got Derrick Favors. I know they got Mfon Udofia to run the point. I know Gani Lawal came back. I know about Iman Shumpert. Bottom line: this team went 2-14 last year in the ACC. Will they be a tournament team? Probably. But I need to see more before I predict anything higher than .500 in conference. Teams generally don't go from worst to top of the conference in one season, especially not in a crowded ACC.
Predicted Standings:
1. UNC - Too much talent and athleticism for it not to work out.
2. Duke - Wild card for the Devils may be how Scheyer runs the point.
3. Maryland - Vasquez's leadership and defense will make the difference.
4. Florida State - Solomon Alabi, Chris Singleton, and Derwin Kitchen form a solid core. But who will replace Toney Douglas's production?
5. Clemson - Trevor Booker will need to should more of an offensive load with K. C. Rivers and Terrence Oglesby gone.
6. Boston College - Due to a well-balanced offense, they won't miss Tyrese Rice as much as initially thought.
7. Georgia Tech - Favors and Udofia will help, but a long way to go in a strong conference.
8. Wake Forest - Someone has to finish here, right? Demon Deacons in a transition state at the moment.
9. Virginia Tech - Not as much talent as the big boys, but they will be very competitive.
10. Miami (FL) - Rebuilding process begins with Jack McClinton gone.
11. Virginia - Sylven Landesberg needs more of a supporting cast around him.
12. NC State - In the not very distant past, this was a decent basketball program.
Tournament teams:
UNC, Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Georgia Tech
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