Season Preview: Pac 10

Two years ago the Pac-10 was arguably the best conference in the nation. This year, the conference is a shell of its former self, losing most of its big name talent to graduation and the draft. As always, that means lots of turnover on top of the conference and a big mess in the middle. Only two Pac-10 teams made the preseason top 25 poll, and they're names you wouldn't expect when you list traditional Pac-10 basketball powerhouses. In fact, those powerhouses, like UCLA and Arizona, will likely be fighting just to make the tournament this season.

The Favorites:

Washington: The Huskies are probably the closest thing to a title contender in the Pac-10 this season. Their backcourt of Isaiah Thomas, Abdul Gaddy, and Venoy Overton is, in my opinion, the best in the conference. The frontcourt is manned by wingman Quincy Pondexter, who made great strides offensively at the end of last season. However, forward Jon Brockman is gone, meaning the Huskies need to replace their best rebounder and inside scorer. Talented wing Justin Dentmon is gone too. Washington will have a good starting 5 this year but depth could be an issue, and they don't really have anyone to replace Brockman in the post (or Dentmon for that matter, although Pondexter could fill his production).

Cal: The Golden Bears will be in every game they play this year because they are one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. They return nearly every major component from a team that was #1 in 3 pt shooting percentage (almost 43% from three!). The backcourt remains completely intact from last year with Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher forming an excellent duo at 1 and 2 guard. Cal is not neccessarily small, although forwards Harper Kamp and Theo Robinson are coming back from offseason surgery. Jamal Boykin is a monster on the glass and should round out the starting five. The bench contains some solid players, like guard Jorge Gutierrez, but Cal seemed to run a short bench last year and will likely do the same this year.

Team likely to surprise:

Arizona: After Cal and Washington, the Pac-10 is wide, wide open this season. The Wildcats have some humongous shoes to replace in Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill, but they do return one of the best guards in the league in Nic Wise and have a star studded recruiting class coming in (thanks to USC and the Tim Floyd situation). While picking a team with so many new pieces to finish top three in the league may seem a little farfetched, let me remind you that the general consensus pick for 3rd place in the conference (UCLA) is losing their top four producers. That's when you know there's a little bit of mediocrity in the Pac-10. Also a candidate for this spot is Washington State, who gets an up-tempo coach in Ken Bone and has some nice pieces to play with for this upcoming season.

Team likely to disappoint:

UCLA: With so many teams having lowered expectations this year, it's difficult to choose a team that could finish below them. Oregon needs to have a good season to keep Ernie Kent's job intact. But I'll take the Bruins, who haven't lost this many important players since before their Final Four runs. There will likely be 7 freshman or sophomores fighting for significant playing time, and this team could run into some problems early. It's unreasonable (even by my leiniant standards this preseason) to expect them to finish anywhere below 5th in conference, but even that may mean an NIT bid this season.

Predicted Finish:

1. Washington: Most complete team in the conference. Over the long haul, that usually wins out.
2. Cal: Great knockout potential, but can they live up to the expectations?
3. Arizona: Probably a little outrageous, but there is no substitute for athleticism and talent.
4. Oregon State: The Beavers give hope for all the DePauls, Iowas, and North Carolina States of the world.
5. UCLA: It will be interesting to see who emerges on a team that doesn't have a clear leader at this point.
6. Washington State: Klay Thompson and DeAngelo Casto form a solid basis to build off.
7. Oregon: The Ducks will likely need to finish higher than this to save Ernie Kent's job.
8. USC: Hope is on the way next year, but program is currently in shambles after the Tim Floyd fiasco.
9. Arizona St.: No Harden? No Pendergraph? Back to square one for the Sun Devils.
10. Stanford: Most people aren't feeling the Cardinal this year.

Tournament Teams:

Washington, Cal, Arizona, UCLA