Anyway, there's still plenty of question marks, and new teams like Northwestern and Virginia Tech that could make some bubble noise, but some conferences are beginning to clear up, like the Big East. Then again, others, like the Big Ten, only get more confusing. Here's your outlook:
ACC
The top 5 continue to do what needs to be done to lock up tournament bids. Clemson took two hits in a week but remain in the lock category due to the fact that they were both top 10 teams. Miami (Fl) can't quite break into the lock category yet but continues to win games they should win. Will 6 get in? Virginia Tech is 3-1 in conference but had probably the worst non-conference resume of all the bubble teams. The rest are floating around .500. I'm guessing, like last year, they'll beat up on each other too much for any of them to make a serious tournament run.
In: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
Should be in: Miami (FL)
Miami (Fl): The U was unable to pull off the upset in Chapel Hill but held off Florida St at home for an important bubble win. Good wins @ BC and Maryland mean the Canes would definitely be in at this point. I'll still hold off lock status due to lack of a marquee win. All four losses are to good teams (UConn, Ohio State without McClinton for much of the game, Clemson, UNC) but their best wins are @ Kentucky and @ St. John’s so there’s not much backing in terms of OOC wins. Virginia Tech comes into town on Sunday, fresh off an upset of the #1 team and hungry for some good conference wins, so that will not be an easy game by any means. They get Wake at home on February 4th if they want that marquee win.
Bubble teams: Florida St., VT, BC, Maryland, NC State
Florida St.: The biggest thing to happen to the Seminoles this week didn't even involve the team. Northwestern's recent upset streak now makes their loss to them seem completely reasonable. @ Miami (Fl) would've really helped boost their profile. Win over Maryland very important in terms of bubble order. Lots of sort-of-good wins (Cincinnati, Cal, Florida, Texas Tech) but no defining win. UNC comes to town next Wednesday and a win there would be big. I'd actually put this team next in the pecking order after Miami (Fl) but will that be enough to get in?
Virginia Tech: Huge, huge road victory over the #1 team in the nation puts the Hokies back in the discussion. They're 3-1 in conference right now and have another big road test @ Miami (Fl) on Sunday. Beat Virginia and Richmond but neither are the types of wins VT needs at this point. @ St. John’s is the best win to speak of so far, but they missed out on every other OOC opportunity. I still think this team is a few good wins away from seriously being in the tournament discussion but as of this point they have a legit argument for being the 6th best team in the ACC.
Boston College: Going 1-4 (with the only win being over conference bottom dweller Georgia Tech in OT) is not a good way to follow up the upset over UNC. While the loss to Harvard is particularly painful, they missed out on some chances to get additional good wins at home, which could come back to haunt them. Win @ UNC is all this team has right now. Also have that semi-ugly loss @ St. Louis. Important bubble games with NC State, Maryland, and Virginia Tech are big in the next two weeks if BC wants to get some conference separation.
Maryland: Lost what would've been a huge win @ Florida St. but at least held serve at home over Virginia. Swept the Michigan schools, But the loss to Marist really hurts. Sunday afternoon game @ Duke is a great place to make a conference statement, because the Terps really aren't doing much of anything right now.
North Carolina St.: They led Duke at the half but Henderson was too much for the Wolfpack and they fell to 1-3 in conference. All OOC losses are to likely tournament teams (@ Davidson, Marquette, Florida) but those were the only quality teams on their OOC schedule so the Wolfpack are left without a decent win to speak of. Any conference win would be good at this point since they're on the bottom of the ACC pecking order at the moment.
Big Ten
Confusion, thy name is Big Ten. The 9th and 10th place teams in the conference pulled off upsets Wednesday to wreak havoc on the conference. The Big Ten title is back up for grabs after Michigan State lost to Northwestern but it's not enough to take them off of lock status (although I will be keeping my eye on this team...). Wisconsin in particular is really struggling and in this conference, a few upsets could mean the difference between 3rd or 4th in the Big Ten and out of the tournament
In: Michigan St.
Should be in: Purdue, Illinois
Purdue: Road win over Minnesota solidifies the Boilers as a legit Big Ten title threat again and in turn makes them a very good bet for the tournament. Not a lock yet due to the difficulty of the upcoming schedule (@ Wisconsin, Michigan, @ Ohio State, @ Illinois) but 3 out of 4 of those should seal it for now.
Illinois: Okay, I believe it. This team's not going away anytime soon. Near miss @ Michigan St. and win over Ohio St. shows me the Illini are for real and that warrants a bump up a notch. Two important games are coming up on Saturday (Wisconsin) and next Thursday (@ Minnesota).
Bubble teams: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., Michigan, Northwestern
Wisconsin: Badgers... it may be time to hit the panic button. Three straight losses, two in OT, put Wisconsin back at .500 and for the first time this season, in serious bubble jeopardy. I understand all their losses in the non-conference were okay but there's ZERO wins to speak of (unless you count Virginia Tech at home, which I don't at the moment). The problem is, there's really nothing preventing this team from not making the tournament should they finish around .500 in conference, unlike Michigan/Minnesota who at least have good OOC wins. It's not over yet by any means but lose @ Illinois on Saturday and things become really dicey.
Minnesota: Important road win @ Wisconsin to keep the Gophers above water, but were unable to make any sort of a run at home vs. Purdue. Could they survive finishing below .500 in conference with the weak OOC schedule? Probably not, but it's looking more and more likely they'll be above .500. Back-to-back Important game next Thursday when Illinois will be in their house.
Ohio State: Well, they're staying alive for now. Win @ Michigan important and loss @ Illinois, while not great, isn't all that bad either. Remember Lighty is still out. They’ll have him back for the tournament and the list of wins with him (@ Miami, Notre Dame) is pretty impressive. Right now they're establishing themselves as 5th or 6th in the Big 10, which, combined with the Lighty situation, should be plenty to get them in
Michigan: Losses to Ohio St. and @ Penn St. put the Wolverines below .500 in conference. If they end up under .500 in Big Ten play,the wins over Duke and UCLA (neutral) are going to be a distant memory to the committee. I still think they’re a good team but they really need to start getting some consistency if they want to keep their bubble status.
Northwestern: They make the list after winning against consecutive ranked opponents. The Wildcats actually beat Florida State in the non-conference, so that helps as well. Their tournament chances? They'd have to win a ton of games in conference, and they've already lost @ Penn St. and @ Wisconsin, immediately putting them under the 8-ball. But they just won @ Michigan St., so theoretically they could beat anyone in conference, and the next 5 are all winnable games. Is it feasible this team could be 7-4 in conference when Illinois comes to town on February 12th? Either way, basketball is finally relevant in Evanston... sort of.
Big 12
Missouri's 3-1 start in conference establishes a clear top 5 and bottom 7. After that, things get interesting/mediocre. Texas A&M isn't doing anything to help their cause and their profile could really use some good wins. Kansas St. is gone due to their 0-4 start in Big 12 play. If Nebraska hadn't lost to UMBC and Iowa State, I'd consider putting 6 in, but their profile isn't good enough at this point to survive those losses.
In: OU, Texas, Kansas
Should be in: Baylor
Baylor: Survived Oklahoma St. in OT and put away Kansas St. quietly to set up an important game in Norman on Saturday. This is somewhat of a win-win situation for the Bears, as they're still solidly in even if they lose, but it would be huge to take down the conference leaders on their turf. And if not, well, Texas rolls into town on Tuesday, so they at least have a shot at getting that one as well.
Bubble teams: Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., Nebraska
Missouri: Important win @ Oklahoma St. will temporarily silence critics. They haven't played any of the 4 ahead of them yet, but they're solidly 5th in conference at this point and @ Nebraska isn't an entirely bad loss. Wins over Cal and USC make for a very solid non-conference season. A couple of important bubble team games coming up this week before @ Baylor and Texas back to back next Saturday and Wednesday.
Texas A&M: Maybe I called the "in the tournament" too early. I mean, I know it's @ Oklahoma and @ Kansas, but at least have a pulse against the Jayhawks. Anyway, the more I review this team's resume, the more I think it's not happening this year. Loss to Tulsa not all that good. Win over Arizona looking worse and worse as Arizona tanks, and that's about all they have on the non-conference slate. One more tough game @ Texas before a must-win vs. Texas Tech on Jan 28th.
Oklahoma St.: Well, they got neither Baylor or Missouri. They've jumped A&M in the standings but if the Aggies aren't playing well either, that doesn't really help. There's not much in the OOC portion, with their best win over Tulsa. @ Nebraska on Saturday could be a winner-stays-on-the-bubble game.
Nebraska: Led Oklahoma at the half but couldn't keep it, which is a shame because they really needed that game. Ugly losses to Maryland-Baltimore County, Oregon State, and Iowa State hurt. Their inconsistency will likely be the Cornhuskers' downfall.
Big East
9 still looking like an almost certainty. West Virginia picks up a huge road win over Georgetown to solidify their spot. Villanova still hasn't really beaten anyone but they're at least playing well enough that I'm confident they will find a way to get in. Providence really, really could've used that Marquette game but they remain out for now. And unless someone has a really good reason to keep UC on this list, I'm taking them off.
In: Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, ND, Marquette, Louisville
Should be in: West Virginia
West Virginia: Big road win over the Hoyas keeps this team in good shape. Avoid an upset at the hands of St. John's on Wednesday and the Mountaineers are looking very good for a bid. Uneventful non-conference resume includes wins @ Ohio State and losses to Kentucky and Davidson.
Bubble teams: Villanova, Providence, St. John's
Villanova: They led UConn for much of the game but fell short in the end. That still gives me enough confidence to believe this team will get there. Still, look at the wins: Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s, Temple. They’d be in good shape if they played in the A-10. Right now Nova’s lacking that marquee win. Just like the previous few years, Villanova could be on the bubble until the conference tournament, but things are looking better at the moment.
Providence: Decent road win over Seton Hall keeps them in the mix. Last Saturday they were in the Marquette game for much of it but were unable to come out on top. Despite that, their conference record is still holding up, and they've got another shot at home vs. Syracuse on Wednesday to make an impression. The OOC season wasn’t nice to the Friars, with a loss to Northeastern to begin the season and no marquee wins to speak of after missing on Baylor and St. Mary’s. Win over Rhode Island could be important for comparison purposes.
St. John’s: Loss to Cincinnati really, really hurts the Red Storm's case. With the difficult conference start, they needed all the wins they could get, and that was one they needed. Nothing in their non-conference resume would back up a bad conference record, but nothing would hurt it either. Finishing above .500 in conference is looking really bleak at the moment.
SEC
At least there's some separation. There's sort of a clear top of the conference and bottom ofd the conference. What isn't good is that some of the teams at the top (Kentucky, Miss St.) had poor non-conference runs and some of the teams at the bottom (Arkansas) had good non-conference runs. What to do?
In: None
Should be in: Tennessee, Florida
Tennessee: This is probably more a "standard procedure" move down than anything else, but you can't lose to Kentucky on your home floor and be expected to stay a lock. The Vols will be fine given the mediocrity of their conference, but they better thank their lucky stars they're not playing in a different power conference where they'd be tested every night. Important game at home vs. Memphis on Saturday can vault this team back into lock status.
Florida: I have no real reason to keep this team out, despite the loss to South Carolina, simply because there's nobody else to put ahead of them, meaning they'll get 12-13 conference wins at least and that will be plenty. They’ve beaten all the teams they were supposed to (except @ Florida St. and @ South Carolina), but no marquee wins to speak of. They’ll probably get in based on sheer number of wins.
Bubble teams: Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, South Carolina, Mississippi St.
Kentucky: Right now Kentucky is the only undefeated team in the SEC, and it's getting to the point where I'll have no choice but to move them up a notch. The Wildcats have had their fair share of criticism over the course of this season but the next two games are winnable, and if they can take care of business at home vs. South Carolina and Mississippi State they'll be undefeated in SEC play when Florida comes to town on Feb. 10th. But still... they lost to VMI. That HAS to mean something.
Arkansas: Loss to Florida really puts Arkansas in a bind. 0-3 in the SEC, or consecutive (almost) Top 10 wins? Either way, they desperately need to beat Alabama and Auburn before the Jan 31st game vs LSU.
LSU: One thing I didn't realize: this team's RPI is awful. I know they haven't beaten anybody (although that may change after the Xavier game on Saturday) but seriously, an RPI of over 300? Anyway, if they can get a bunch of wins in conference and beat some of the few legit teams, I think they'll be fine, but who knows at this point.
South Carolina: Missed a really good opportunity at home vs. Tennessee but took home Florida as a consolation prize. A couple of must-win games for the Gamecocks before back-to-back trips to Kentucky and Florida. Win over Baylor still looking strong. Gaudy record masks bad loss to Charleston. They still need to perform well in conference but the bid is there for the taking.
Mississippi State: Got hammered by LSU, and without a legit win to speak of (other than @ Arkansas, which is fading fast) the Bulldogs are not in a position to be arguing about a bubble spot.
Pac-10
It's looking like a 3 team race at this point. Two teams were expected, but Cal has crashed the party and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon (unless they keep losing to teams like Oregon State). Other than that... USC and Washington are making serious pushes to be considered. Their showdown tonight could be for an early bubble spot. Other than that, you have a mediocre team with an even more mediocre resume (Wash St.), a team fading fast (Arizona), and a team with a gaudy record but not a lot of wins to show for it (Stanford). The Pac-10 may only get 4 in this year.
In: UCLA, Arizona St.
Should be in: Cal
Cal: Hmm... loss to Oregon State not the worst thing in the world, but the biggest thing the Bears had going for them was conference record. Still safe for now, but for future games against the Oregon schools, it would be advisable to win. Non-conference schedule includes reasonable losses to Florida St. and Missouri and wins @ UNLV and @ Utah.
Bubble teams: Washington, Stanford, USC, Arizona
Washington: Don't look now, but Washington is tied for the Pac-10 lead and with the USC win, they appear to be peaking at the right time. Loss to Cal in OT only thing keeping the Huskies out of first in the Pac-10. This is making up for a poor non-conference schedule which included no signature wins and a loss to Portland, but if they play this well in conference, it won't matter.
USC: Loss to Washington moves the Trojans back down to .500. At least they got the win at Arizona St. last week. Their best non-conference wins are Georgia Tech and @ Oregon, which means they have some work to do. Handing Oregon St. their first conference win in over a year doesn’t help their case. If I had to guess, I'd say this team is probably in, but there's still plenty of season left to be played and there's good arguments for both sides.Stanford: Every time I think this Cardinal team is going to fade into oblivion, they go out and beat Cal. One more game against Oregon State before the @ USC/@ UCLA team which could make or break this squad. Absolutely nothing in non-conference play to back them up, but hey, at least they didn't lose!
Arizona: When you're 2-5 in conference, and the only two wins you have are over the worst and 2nd-worst team in the conference... yea, you've got issues. They have some very good OOC wins (Gonzaga, Kansas) but they're having problems beating the middle of the road Pac-10 teams. How is that going to get it done?
Other conferences:
Not many changes for the better for the mid-majors. BYU's two losses drop them down to the bubble. UNLV and San Diego State are making charges, and the Mountain West may be warranting their own conference projection soon. Outside of the Mountain West, though, no other small conference will probably get more than two in.
In: Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga
Should be in: St. Mary’s, Memphis, UNLV, Dayton, Davidson
St. Mary's: Bad loss to UTEP can be overlooked due to sheer number of wins and number of good wins (Providence, @ Oregon, @ Kansas St., @ SIU). As long as they take care of business in the WCC they should be fine.
Memphis: They don’t have any real great wins (best is home v. Cincinnati) but they've got a great shot Saturday vs. Tennessee. All the losses are reasonable and they should win the C-USA which will be enough to get in.
Dayton: The Flyers are holding on in the A-10 conference schedule, and there's still no reason to suggest they're not second best in the A-10, which will be good enough to get in. Loss @ Creighton still not good though.
Bubble teams: UNLV, BYU, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Creighton, Utah, San Diego State, Utah State, Houston
UNLV: Bad start to the conference slate cleaned up by win @ BYU. Win @ Louisville still looks great as well. They're in a similar position to BYU but at least they have a significant non-conference win to speak of. They're looking okay for a bid at the moment.
BYU: Two straight losses put the Cougars in a bit of bubble jeopardy. They missed on their two non-conference opportunities (Wake Forest and Arizona State) so there's nothing backing up their resume should they fall short of the Mountain West auto bid. I would imagine the Mountain West regular season champ is good enough for an at-large (it has been in the past) but there's no reason to suggest that's a lock after the loss to UNLV at home.
Rhode Island: Poor A-10 start really puts the pressure on the Rams. Loss at St. Joe's is not good, as that's a comparable bubble team. It’s hard to believe only two teams could make it from the Atlantic 10, but it will probably happen. Losses to Duke and Villanova are nothing to be upset about, and losses @ Providence and and Oklahoma St. aren’t awful, but there just simply aren't enough good wins.
Illinois State: The Redbirds are playing okay in the MVC but certainly not good enough to get an auto-bid. They'll probably need the MVC auto-bid to get in now.
Creighton: Their at-large status was already iffy heading into conference play. They're back on track in the Missouri Valley but it's not enough. They’ll likely need the MVC auto-bid.
Utah: Loss to San Diego State isn't good, but the Utes are still 3-1 in conference. The Utes have an extremely awful set of losses, including a loss to a Division 2 team. However, recent wins over Gonzaga and LSU have put them in at-large consideration. At this point, the resume is not good enough. But there are good wins to come by in the Mountain West, and this team is very capable of making a run and taking the regular season title. HUGE game @ UNLV on Saturday.
San Diego State: Picked up the big win they needed over Utah and now have a very important game @ BYU next Saturday. If they can pull that off, I will be leading the charge to put this team in the tournament. Losses are all reasonable and relatively close, and a couple of wins over tournament teams is good enough for now.
Utah State: The WAC favorites fell to BYU on a neutral court but did beat fellow bubble member Utah. The OOC schedule probably isn’t strong enough for an at-large bid though.
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