Wednesday, Jan. 13th in College Basketball

The reason why conference play is so valuable (and interesting) for a college basketball fan is because it blatantly shows a team's true weakness. Perhaps this is because teams lose consistently in conference play, and you really don't find out about a team's weakness until they do lose, but whatever the reason, conference play is the area where you start to find out how a team matches up against decent opponents and what their limitations are. For example, there were a number of losses by top 25 teams yesterday, and by analyzing those games we can discover not only why they lost the game but if that reason concurs with the team's previous results. Wow, that totally sounded like a scientific paper. Anyway, on to the analysis:

Purdue

Why they lost: Among several reasons, Evan Turner, lack of transition defense, lack of bench scoring, Evan Turner, lack of quickness on the perimeter, inability to create shots, and Evan Turner.

Is this a trend?: Sort of. Outside of Moore, Hummel, and Johnson, we don't have any consistent scoring. This isn't the end of the world... unless one or more of those guys decides to have an off day (like Johnson did). The number of teams that can shut down Johnson or decide to try this hard to shut down Johnson are few, so this isn't a huge problem. Also, not everyone has Evan Turner. The scarier problem is the general lack of athleticism and quickness... not an issue when you're playing shut-down defense and only need to score 65-70 points to win, but the defense hasn't been there recently.

Can this team compete for a Final Four spot?: Yes, although the margin for error is slimmer than most teams. Purdue has to execute on both sides of the ball for the better part of 40 minutes, while other teams around them can get by on size, athleticism, shooting, or a combination of those three.

Florida State

Why they lost: They couldn't stop Scott Wood (31 pts, 7-11 from three).

Is this a trend?: Not really. The Seminoles aren't bad at stopping the three, and few guys are going to get that hot consistently. The bigger problem for Florida State (which, oddly enough, didn't show up tonight) is that they can't put the ball in the bucket consistently, mainly due to turnovers.

Can this team compete for a Sweet 16 spot?: Eh... I love their size, and they're strong defensively, but they just don't have the weapons to compete against the top teams. Maybe with good matchups they can make it past the first weekend, but I doubt it.

Baylor

Why they lost: Too many turnovers, and shot half as many free throws as Colorado did.

Is this a trend?: Yes. Baylor hasn't really faced the types of teams that can really hurt you if you turn the ball over as much as they do, and they're a good defensive team, mainly due to their size.

Can they make the tournament?: I'm going to say yes, but it might be pretty close. At best, Baylor is probably the fifth best team in this conference and they may be a .500 team in conference, which is probably enough to get it done, but not much more than a 10 or 11 seed. I doubt they get any farther than that.

This is the kind of analysis we can do to see where teams should end up come tournament time. In the meanwhile, we have games to play... starting with a couple of very important ACC showdowns:

Game of the Night:

UNC @ Clemson: Important game for both teams. Clemson could use a solid win to remove the ugly performance at Duke from people's heads. UNC could use a very good win to remove the ugly performance at College of Charleston from their heads. I told myself a week ago that the ACC is so parity-filled that I am pretty much just going to pick the home team every time, but I have other reasons to pick Clemson. Namely, they'll turn over UNC and attempt to get easy buckets in transition. Typically, high pressure, high turnover teams like Clemson feed off of crowd energy, and I think Clemson will do that and pick up a solid conference win.

Pick: Clemson 79, UNC 73

Others:

Minnesota @ Michigan State: Sparty looks to defend home court tonight against a good opponent.

Pitt @ UConn: The Panthers have erased all memory of the Indiana loss and look to continue to roll over an overrated (in my opinion) Husky team.

Wisconsin @ Northwestern: Both teams need this... Northwestern, to stay in good shape to make the tournament, and Wisconsin, to show they're serious about contending for a Big Ten title.

Missouri @ Texas Tech: Important bubble battle in the Big 12.

Cincinnati @ St. John's: Ditto, for the Big East.

Miami @ Virginia Tech: Ditto, for the ACC.

San Diego State @ UNLV: Ditto, for the... oh, you get the idea.

Monday, Jan. 11th in College Basketball

Great weekend in college basketball. Five top 10 teams, including two undefeateds, lost this weekend, meaning there could be some significant changes in the top 25. Or maybe not. I'll let you know whether these teams are still legitimate top 10 teams or not... starting with the soon to be former #1 team in the land.

Kansas: The biggest problem facing the Jayhawks over the past week has been the fact that they've had one reliable scorer, and that's Sherron Collins. Xavier Henry's shooting percentage and scoring is down and appears to be rushing shots. Cole Aldrich is not the offensive weapon he was last year, and neither is Tyshawn Taylor. When on, Kansas spreads the ball well and consistently gets good shots, and that hasn't happened of late. Is this a trend? Maybe. Kansas is still strong defensively and more athletic than almost anyone they play, so they can deal with offensive struggles for small stretches. If they want to compete for a title, though, someone other than Collins needs to make big shots down the stretch.

Verdict: Legit

Purdue: My Boilers gave up a 17-4 run to Wisconsin at the beginning of the 2nd half and never recovered. Wisconsin is a very good team, especially at the Kohl Center, so the loss itself doesn't give too much cause for concern. I don't feel like Purdue played poorly, either, so in one sense there aren't any new problems. The way to beat Purdue is probably the same way I always thought you beat Purdue: quickness on the perimeter. Trevon Hughes, Jason Bohannon (who can actually drive to the basket now!) and Jordan Taylor killed us off the dribble drive. Oh, and hopefully JaJuan won't go 1-7 from the line again. Our help defense is still the best in the Big Ten, though, and it will take an extremely good offensive effort for 40 minutes to beat us.

Verdict: Legit

Duke: Duke's strength is supposed to be in the post, where they have a lot of bodies to throw at people. The problem is, when they face teams with size, they don't seem to play well offensively. The same was true with UConn (although UConn is a pretty good defensive team). Duke shoots over 40% from three normally, but they couldn't create decent shots consistently against the Georgia Tech defense. Duke's lack of depth in the backcourt and skill in the frontcourt means that they're probably not that much better than the rest of their conference. They'll get their wins, but there are a number of ACC teams I'd probably pick to win at home vs. Duke. In my opinion, that's not the sign of a top 10 team.

Verdict: Not Legit

West Virginia: I was sold on this team earlier, but after their loss to Purdue and loss at Notre Dame, I'm not so sure. They're still pretty big, and strong defensively, but they really don't have a lot of speed in the backcourt and they don't get to the line very often, meaning the offense can stall for stretches. The fact that they shot 37 threes and only 4 free throws is not a good sign for the offense. Of course, it's also not safe to assume Da'Sean Butler is going to go 4-20 from the floor again like he did @ ND. Overall, West Virginia is very good, but probably not in the same class as Villanova and Syracuse. And maybe even Georgetown.

Verdict: Not Legit

North Carolina: They were top 10 at the beginning of the week but will not be this week after losing to College of Charleston.

Verdict: Not Legit

So where does that leave us for a top 10? I'd probably put these 10 teams there for now: Texas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, Purdue, Villanova, Michigan State, Georgetown, Wisconsin, and Tennessee.

Okay, on to Monday. Not a ton of good games on the schedule. As usual, a Big East matchup headlines the day:

Game of the Night:

Villanova @ Louisville: I've decided over the past few days I need to take a closer look at the Cardinals as a tournament team. Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa have taken on bigger roles in the offense and have thrived as a result. Defensively, they've been strong recently, although they have had their struggles at points this season. Their resume suggests to me they're right on the bubble. Which leads me into tonight's game... a win over a clear top 10 team would probably put the Cardinals on the right side of the bubble right now. Problem is, Louisville likes to speed up teams with pressure, and Nova's comfortable playing like that. Villanova gets the big road win tonight.

Pick: Villanova 87, Louisville 81

Others:

Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma: The Bedlam game holds important tournament implications for both teams. For the Cowboys, it's some much needed respect. They kicked the stuffing out of Texas Tech to start Big 12 play and look to pick up a good road conference win tonight. Oklahoma, meanwhile, lost badly at Baylor and really, really need some big wins.