NCAA Tournament Preview: East Regional

The Kentucky regional. What fun. I really have no idea what's going to happen here. It initially seems like a straight-forward 1 vs. 2 matchup in the Elite Eight, but both teams have their flaws and several teams that can expose those flaws along the way. If one or the other goes down, then it's anyone's guess as to who will be in the regional final. That's what makes this year exciting though. Onward:

Favorite: Kentucky. I swear, this team won half their games this year by less than 10 points. That means one of two things: they're playing with fire and not really that good, or they're really good and just that much more talented than anyone else that they can win games at will down the stretch. I think it's a bit of both, actually.

Why they could lose: They have four guys that can all score 25 in any given night, yet they still struggle to score in a halfcourt set at times. How does that work? Also, they can't shoot threes at all, and they're all freshman. This means any one of the following teams could beat them: a slow team, a physical team, an experienced team, a team with size, and a team that plays a good zone. Problem: about half the teams in this bracket fit under that description. Not a good sign.

Who could beat them: Any of the following: Texas, Wake Forest, Temple, Cornell, Wisconsin, Marquette, New Mexico, Clemson, Missouri, West Virginia. I just named most of the bracket. Again, sometimes I don't understand how this team won this many games. I guess it's because they have the best PG (Wall) and most difficult one-on-one matchup (Cousins) in the nation. I hate you, Calipari.

Sleeper: Most everybody who wants to pick a sleeper from this region is picking Cornell. So I'm going to take the team playing Cornell in the first round: Temple. Unless you forgot, this team handled Villanova pretty easily. They're physical, they're tough defensively, and they limit 2nd chance points. That spells issues for Kentucky if you ask me. And West Virginia has been known to stall out in halfcourt sets as well. Make no mistake: the Owls have the tools to take this region.

Who will win: West Virginia. I actually would not take them in a head to head matchup vs. UK. Good thing they won't end up playing (see what I did there?). Anyway, with Desean Butler taking over this team and turning into Mr. Clutch, WVU appears to be hitting on all cylinders at the moment. Then again, this team was 143rd in effective FG% in the nation. So who knows

Picks:
First Round
UK over East Tennessee State (ETSU gave Pitt a game last year as a 16. Don't be surprised if this one is a classic Lee Corso "closer than the experts think")
Wake Forest over Texas (Is it sad that Texas was #1 in the country at one point and I didn't really even think about this pick? The answer is yes)
Temple over Cornell (I think people forgot that Cornell lost that game to Kansas)
Wisconsin over Wofford
Marquette over Washington (I really want to pick the red-hot Huskies, but Marquette has played better than their record suggests this year)
New Mexico over Montana
Clemson over Missouri (Only because I still don't trust Mizzou away from home)
West Virginia over Morgan State

Second Round
UK over Wake Forest (Maybe an upset?... no, not yet. Patience)
Wisconsin over Temple (Yes, I did just hype up Temple and then pick them to lose in the 2nd round. Gotta keep you on your toes)
New Mexico over Marquette
West Virginia over Clemson (although watching WVU try to handle a full court press for 40 minutes without a good PG will be entertaining)

Regional Semis
Wisconsin over UK (Several reasons. First off, Wisconsin will not be sped up. Ever. This means UK will have to win a halfcourt game. Secondly, Wisconsin has some good weapons in a halfcourt set: Trevon Hughes has turned into a beast this year, Jordan Taylor has been excellent, Leuer does his thing, and they have several good spot up shooters as well. Now, they currently don't have a way of dealing with Cousins, and if it does become a shootout... okay, okay, my logic falls apart here. Just deal with the pick. Plus maybe Cousins does something stupid and gets himself ejected)
West Virginia over New Mexico (I should pick the upset here... New Mexico has excellent guard play and offense, and they limit offensive rebounds which is WVU's forte... but WVU's too versatile and Butler's playing too well right now to lose)

Regional Finals
West Virginia over Wisconsin (Same sort of thing as before. Wisconsin can slow down and stall out UK, but West Virginia's more prepared for a halfcourt, physical game. Plus Desean Butler has been the man recently. Did I mention Desean Butler?)

Winner: WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS