NCAA Tournament Preview: West Regional

On to the West regional, which has some very intriguing upset possibilities. I could easily see anyone from 4 on down losing in the first round, and after that point who really knows, especially if Onuaku's injury is somewhat serious. By the way, Syracuse went from my favorite a couple of weeks ago to a potential early exit in the tournament. It depends on matchups and health concerns. But we'll get to that in a minute.

Favorites: Syracuse. What a wild three weeks it's been. After a Saturday where not only KU and UK fall but the Orange pound Nova in a sold out Carrier Dome to jump to #1, Syracuse now finds itself on a two game losing streak and with a potentially serious injury to its starting center. No question the Cuse can ball, but that zone has looked particularly shaky these past two games, and there's a very fine line between stout and extremely flaky when it comes to a zone. Let's just say Syracuse hopes nobody catches fire from three early in this tournament.

Why they could lose: Like I mentioned earlier (and have said this entire year), Syracuse is vulnerable to small teams that can penetrate the zone and hit perimeter jumpers. For the Orange, the zone is simultaneously their best friend (lots of steals that turn into points) and their worst enemy. It also helps to have a point forward that can operate well in the high post and break the zone down from the inside out.

Who they could lose to: The two seed, Kansas State, particularly intrigues me, because they have both the guard play and the point forwards to break down the zone. Beyond that, Pitt has already beaten the Orange, but the rest of the field looks pretty thin. Unless you think Butler is gonna catch fire from the outside in their Sweet 16 matchup.

Sleeper: BYU. I've never particularly liked unathletic mid-major squads, but something about this Jimmer Fredette character intrigues me. Maybe it's just the name. But the guy's an insanely efficient and proficient scorer (much like Stephen Curry was) and he may be able to put his team on his back and roll off a few upsets. It's not like K-State and Pitt are immune to imploding, either.

Who will win: Kansas State. Is this a risky pick? Probably. But they've got the tools to win this thing. Like I said, I think they match up well vs. the Orange, and the bracket isn't particularly intimidating otherwise (although Pitt will put up a good fight in the regional semis).

PICKS:
1st Round
Syracuse over Vermont (No Vermont upset this time... sorry Catamounts)
Florida State over Gonzaga (Gotta stick with one of those under-the-radar ACC teams... as long as they figure out how to score consistently)
UTEP over Butler (I've been hating on Butler all year long. No reason to stop now)
Murray State over Vanderbilt (See what I mean? It's not like these are crazy picks either. They really could happen)
Minnesota over Xavier
Pitt over Oakland
BYU over Florida
Kansas State over North Texas

2nd Round
Syracuse over Florida State (I'll guess the Seminoles score somewhere between 25 and 27 points in this one. Okay, fine. I'll give them an even 30.)
UTEP over Murray State (I'm probably too excited about a couple of teams that really haven't beaten anyone. Well, you only live once. Go Miners!)
Pitt over Minnesota (Every time I look at the Panthers I think "Really? This team is that good?" But they actually have a lot of guys that can create their own shot for a team that's supposed to be "depleted" from last year. Can they handle size? We'll find out in the 2nd round no matter what because Xavier's also a big team)
Kansas State over BYU (This game will be something like 67-55, with Jimmer scoring 50 points)

Regional Semis
Syracuse over UTEP (Pretty straightforward matchup for the Orange)
Kansas State over Pitt (This will be an entertaining game to watch. Look for K-State's forwards to make the difference here, as they have all year long)

Regional Finals
Kansas State over Syracuse (I've mentioned this before, but Kansas State has two guards that can score in bunches, they get to the line, and they have a surprisingly athletic front line that crashes the offensive boards like mad men. This is NOT a good matchup for Syracuse. I'm taking the Wildcats if they can get this far)

Winner: KANSAS STATE WILDCATS