Hummel's Injury

So I rarely post specifically on a Purdue topic, but this one affects college b-ball on a national scene as well so it's worth a look. If you didn't know, Robbie Hummel went down in the first half of the Purdue-Minnesota game on Wednesday, and it was discovered today that he has a torn ACL and is done for the year. Obviously, this is a tremendous blow to a team which I felt was peaking at the right time and ready to make some real noise in the NCAA Tournament and possibly in Indianapolis in April. So what has changed? What can Purdue replace in terms of Hummel's production and leadership on the court, and what will they miss the most?

What Hummel brought to this team:

Anyone from Purdue will tell you Hummel is pretty much the heart and soul of this team. There are some votes for Kramer here and there, but in terms of raw numerical production, versatility, and leadership, you have to go with Hummel. At 6' 8", Hummel is very difficult to handle on the offensive end with his ability to pass and shoot the ball. He's probably our strongest outside shooter overall and Purdue has relied on him to produce a consistent, if not large, volume of points throughout the season. Defensively, Hummel generally matches up against the 4 and is a very good defender. In addition, he's Purdue's best rebounder on both ends of the floor. Add the leadership and production components, and Hummel is one of the three Purdue cornerstones.

What can Purdue replace:

I actually think Hummel's offensive production can be replaced (to an extent). Grant has shot much better over the past three games and will be needed to step into the third option offensively. Kelsey Barlow has shown flashes of explosiveness towards the basket and finishing skills at the rim, but that hasn't been as often during conference play. Kramer and John Hart will also be asked to help carry the scoring load. Overall, we move the ball well enough and guys are shooting well enough that we can probably scrounge together an extra 10-15 points a game offensively. Also, this team has enough veteran leadership and knows how to win basketball games when not at full strength. I would be much, much more worried about this team if this happened last year, but I think the Minnesota game showed me we can play through adversity.

What Purdue can't replace:

Where we will be most hurt is defensively and on the glass. We don't have a 4 anymore and will be forced to either play 4 guards or play Patrick Bade at the 4, and both will leave us with serious match-up problems. This means that a team like Michigan State (who we play on Sunday) will force us into a difficult matchup situation, since I don't particularly like the idea of having Kramer guard Delvon Roe or Raymar Morgan and I don't know if we can live with an offensive liability like Bade on the floor for an extended period of time. It's pick your poison at that point.

What should we expect from Purdue:

First off, we will at least be a top 4 seed. I still think we have a shot at being a 1 if we can win out (not likely, but still). If we only lose to Michigan State but make the Big Ten final, that should be good enough for a 2 seed. I don't see us falling more than a 3 unless we really look bad over the next three weeks. That said, we should be able to get past the first weekend. I don't think there's anyone that will be a 6 seed or below that will give us such a difficult matchup problem that we can't get past it. However, it becomes a crapshoot once you hit the Sweet 16. We're going to be undersized against almost any 1-5 seed in the tournament; however, that doesn't mean every team utilizes that height in a way that will seriously hurt us (like Butler). The teams that will really kill us are teams that have one really good post player (Georgetown, Texas if Pittman plays reasonable minutes) or a big frontline in general (like Baylor). Plus I still think a plethora of speed can hurt us badly as well. In other words, we're going to have severe obstacles against any Sweet 16 team we face.

Does that mean we aren't getting any farther than that round? No. There have been much, much worse teams that have made the Final Four. And this year is WIDE open outside of the top two teams. Also, we're still strong enough defensively that we can hang with anyone in the country given a good shooting day. But then again, I don't think we've shown enough consistency in terms of outside shooting that that's reasonable. Overall, I would really like getting to the Elite Eight, but I can't be upset with a loss in the Sweet 16 or even the 2nd Round in a certain matchup. It's frustrating that it has to be like this when really, nobody did anything wrong. But such is sports.

UPDATE: I have a new concept I'd like to try out this weekend. It's called "The Big List" and I want to unveil it this weekend. We'll see if I get around to it though