After all the craziness these past two rounds have brought us, there is one thing I can say for certain:
This is Kentucky's tournament to lose.
Coming from a guy who has been somewhat down on UK all year, I'm telling you. Kentucky is the best, most talented team left in this tournament, and with Onuaku out, it really isn't all that close. They have four guys on their team that can all go off for 25+ points in a game. Nobody else has more than three (and that team is Duke, who only really has three scorers). They have more size and are quicker than anyone else left. They're deep, talented, and they have a coach on the sideline who knows how to win (or at least get guys who can win to play together).
What does any of this mean? Absolutely nothing.
This tournament has been one of the craziest in recent memory. What was easily the worst group of 2, 3, and 4 seeds in this past decade has been ravaged, leaving multiple cinderellas and several double digit seeds left standing. If there's a year where being the favorite doesn't count for anything, it's 2009-2010. With that said, here are my picks for the East region.
Game 1 (7:27 PM, CBS): 2 WVU vs. 11 Washington
UW has had an interesting road to this position. Easily one of the biggest underachievers during the regular season, the Huskies have come back in the spring with a vengeance, running through the Pac-10 tournament and taking out two higher seeds in the tournament. This Husky backcourt is very dangerous, and Qunicy Pondexter has been outstanding all year long.
That being said...
Washington was matched up against two small teams who were primarily perimeter oriented. UW took advantage of superior speed and ran both teams into the ground. It won't be so easy with West Virginia, who poses a different threat. West Virginia isn't as quick as Washington, either, but they will possess size advantages in a number of areas, particularly the wings, where guys like Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones, excellent rebounders during the season, will have height advantages. Washington will have to play a slower, more physical style of basketball and grind out a victory. West Virginia isn't a sexy basketball team, but they've won 29 games for a reason. If Washington can speed up the game, turn West Virginia over, and make it a shootout, they can get the upper hand. UW is not a team that's used to or has really been successful against this type of style, though. WVU wins it.
PICK: WVU 72, Washington 65
Game 2 (9:57 PM, CBS): 1 Kentucky vs. 12 Cornell
If there's one game where I have a serious rooting preference other than the Purdue game, it's this one. I'm just gonna get it out there: I despise Kentucky. I hate that slimeball of a coach John Calipari. I think DeMarcus Cousins is a thug and a lazy bum. I don't particularly care for their fans or the fact that they haven't paid their dues over time to get to where they are. I don't trust that this team hasn't already broken some NCAA sanctions. But they're darn good. And this causes problems.
I had UK going out in the Sweet 16. I really thought Wisconsin would give them a run for their money with their slow, physical play. But Wisconsin didn't make it through. Instead, it's an Ivy League school who had never won a game in the tournament before this season and is the first team since Penn in 1978 and 1979 to make the Sweet 16. And this team... they're darn good too. For those of you who care, Cornell averaged 1.65 points per possession against Wisconsin. That's really good. As in, really really really good. Against a pretty darn good defense in Wisconsin, no less. Wisconsin shot 49% from the field and lost by 18. Cornell dropped 87 on a team that usually gives up 60. This is no cinderella. This Big Red team is legit.
So that's why I'm doing this. Maybe it's because I really don't want to see UK win it all this year. Maybe it's because I didn't pick Cornell for two straight rounds and I'm trying to make up these past mistakes. Or maybe it's because Cornell has the size and the offense to keep up with Kentucky (not speed-wise, but in general). Maybe... just maybe... magic will happen once again.
And my bracket's screwed anyway, so what the heck.
PICK: Cornell 75, Kentucky 73
Monday, March 22, 2010
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