Well, the ACC is shaping up to be a competitive conference, if not a particularly strong one. No one team looks strong enough to continuously win on the road, meaning the conference winner could have 4-5 losses. Duke’s probably the strongest of the bunch, followed by a bunch of middling top 25 teams. And when I mean a bunch, I’m talking like a half dozen teams here. The ACC might get 7 teams in, but none of them may make it past the first weekend.
Locks: Duke
Should be in:
Georgia Tech: Too many good wins to say this team isn’t in, but they’re still inconsistent, so I’ll keep them out of a lock at this point.
Clemson: Could’ve really used a win over Duke at home. As it stands, the Tigers still aren’t in any real danger, despite their .500 record in the ACC. But they’d be advised to not lose to Boston College on Tuesday.
Bubble teams:
Wake Forest: If it wasn’t for the home loss to William & Mary (which isn’t really all that bad), Wake would probably be a stage up right now. They are playing well in conference, though, and are on the right track. They have wins @ Gonzaga and vs. Richmond and Xavier. Loss @ Miami is looking worse but still not terrible. Important road game @ Georgia Tech on Thursday.
UNC: The losses are really starting to pile up now, after falling at home to Wake Forest on Wednesday. Still have good wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech. Those wins are definitely better than almost any bubble team in the country, but there’s a really good chance they may have around 11 losses, and that would be just games I would have them as an underdog. That’s a lot of losses to overcome. They really need to win @ NC State on Tuesday.
Florida State: Got a good win at home vs. Georgia Tech on Sunday for the season sweep. Losses @ Florida and @ Ohio State with Evan Turner are nothing to be ashamed of, and good neutral court wins over Alabama and Marquette help as well. The Seminoles seem to have righted the ship after a rough patch in the ACC.
Virginia Tech: Just escaped at home vs. BC to avoid putting themselves in a serious bind. The Hokies will be a very interesting case. Home vs. Seton Hall and home vs. Miami are their best wins so far, which probably aren’t good enough to get them in the tournament, but it’s not like they’re that much further behind the rest of the conference. A couple of road games against fellow ACC bubblers before UNC comes to town on February 4th.
Likely not in:
Miami: Lost to Boston College again and they are now 1-4 in conference. Excellent non-conference slate against a weak schedule capped by win over Minnesota, but at some point you gotta start winning conference games.
Maryland: Got a home wins vs. Florida State and NC State and are 3-1 in the ACC, which is solid so far. Indiana is their next best win though. All in all, 10+ wins are probably necessary in conference to get the Terps in.
North Carolina State: All in all, not really feeling the Wolfpack, as they can’t seem to beat middle of the pack ACC teams at home or on the road (although apparently they can beat Duke). I’ll keep an eye on them, but I’m not expecting a serious move towards a bid.
Virginia: No shame in losing @ Wake Forest, but that’s probably a game Virginia could’ve used considering their subpar non-conference showing. The margin of error is slim to none for the Cavaliers right now.
Big East
This is shaping up to be a very deep conference. Clear leaders are emerging (Villanova, Syracuse) but after that it’s becoming somewhat of a clouded mess. Can they get 10 in? It’s not unreasonable, although they’ll probably eat at least one of two of their own before conference play is up.
Locks: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Georgetown, Pitt
Should be in: None
Bubble teams:
UConn: Big, big time win over Texas makes me feel much better about UConn’s tournament chances. It’s the defining win the Huskies have been looking for. Of course, there’s still the matter of the .500 conference record, losses that continue to pile up, and lack of depth to their resume, but for now all is well. Should win @ Providence on Wednesday and would do well to take the Marquette home game on Saturday.
Cincinnati: Lost road games to Seton Hall and St. John’s which isn’t really the mark of a tournament team. At least they got the home win vs. ND. Wins vs. Vanderbilt, and the UConn win helps, but they’re probably moving the wrong way right now. Righted the ship somewhat with a win over South Florida on Wednesday.
Notre Dame: Lost @ Cincinnati, but that’s not really the end of the world. West Virginia win still looms large. Still the ugly Loyola Marymount home loss on their schedule. @ Villanova awaits on Wednesday. Can they get to .500 in conference? It may be enough if they're able to.
Louisville: Lost @ Seton Hall on Thursday and still don’t have a marquee win to speak of (home vs. Cincinnati is the closest thing to that). They have wins against fellow bubblers Providence and St. John’s though. Cardinals didn’t play a difficult non-conference slate as it was, but they still lost to the only tough teams on their schedule.
Seton Hall: Alright, then. The Pirates reel off back-to-back good wins at home to make some noise in the conference. Looking ahead at their schedule, there’s a very real possibility they get 10-11 wins in conference without hitting a major upset. Will that be enough? They don’t have the non-conference slate (best win is Cornell) to back them up. Just keep winning, I guess.
Likely not in:
Marquette: Ugly road loss to DePaul and loss @ Syracuse leaves Marquette at 2-5 in conference play. With their schedule so far, they need all the gimmes they can get. Wins over Xavier and Georgetown are the positives. They are just 11-8, though, and eight losses at this point in the season leaves little to no room for error.
St. John's: Led early vs. Villanova but couldn’t hold it. Can they get in with a .500 record in conference? They do have wins at Temple and vs. Siena. It would be close, but I’m leaning towards no. And that’s if they get to .500, which would be tough for them.
South Florida: Just simply too many better teams in conference.
Big Ten
In Big Ten country, a clear elite group is also emerging. Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State have separated themselves from the pack.
Locks: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Should be in:
Ohio State: With Turner back, it’s only a matter of time before this team moves into lock status. Win over Wisconsin on Saturday showed that. Loss @ West Virginia was not a big deal (although it would’ve helped with seeding).
Bubble Teams:
Minnesota: It’s a shame they couldn’t pull it out vs. Michigan State, as that probably would’ve moved them up a level. At 3-4 in conference and with a loss @ Indiana, Minnesota is quietly slipping in the wrong direction. Still, they have the neutral court win over Butler and a win over Turner-less Ohio State, but losses can and have piled up quickly in conference. Must beat Northwestern at home on Tuesday.
Northwestern: Beat Illinois at home on Saturday but couldn’t get the road win @ Ohio State last Tuesday. I’m not entirely sure what to do with Northwestern at this point. They have wins vs. Purdue, Iowa State, and Notre Dame and no bad losses. However, they haven’t really passed the eye test from what I’ve seen so far. The jury is out on this one.
Likely not in:
Illinois: Three straight conference losses makes it eight total for the Illini, and they appear too young to put together any sort of consistent run. Also have three bad non-conference losses, which is a lot to overcome for any team.
Big 12
They rival the Big East at the top, with three legitimate top 10 teams, but outside of that the drop-off is fairly steep. I’ll keep Kansas State as a lock for now despite the home loss to Oklahoma State. I’d be surprised if they got less than 6 teams in. 7 might be a stretch though.
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State
Should be in:
Texas A & M: I’m probably higher on the Aggies then most people, but all 5 losses are to very good opponents and they have a couple of good wins over Minnesota and Clemson at neutral sites. They still have Kansas and Texas at home, and if they can get one of those, they should be able to get to 10 wins in conference, which would be plenty to get in. Even if they don’t, they’re still probably good.
Bubble teams:
Baylor: No major wins, but a lot of good ones. Solid road wins over South Carolina and Arkansas, a neutral court win over Xavier, and a home win over Oklahoma State. Losses to Alabama (neutral) and @ Colorado aren’t all that good but manageable. A win at Kansas on Wednesday night would be huge, but they’ll settle for a split this week. They need all the conference wins they can get, but they could very well be the 4th best team in this conference, which would likely mean 10 wins.
Missouri: Split back-to-back Saturdays against @ Oklahoma (L) and Nebraska (W). Won at home over Kansas State, but the win against Illinois is looking worse, though, and they have a not-so-pretty loss to Oral Roberts on there as well. Mizzou’s tournament chances will likely come down to their ability to win games on the road, as they are currently 1-3 in true road games.
Oklahoma State: The Kansas State road win defines what was turning into a very lackluster resume. Their next best win is home vs. Texas Tech, so the depth isn’t there, but it’s a start. Keep it going with a home win vs. Texas A & M on Wednesday and you’ll probably be in (for now.)
Likely not in:
Texas Tech: Rebounded by beating Oklahoma at home on Saturday, but that was the easy one. Washington win has plummeted in value, and that’s really all they have at this point (other than maybe UTEP at home). If they can take down Texas in Austin on Wednesday, I’ll reconsider.
Oklahoma: A couple of good wins over Oklahoma State and Missouri, but the Sooners will need more to counter-act so many losses. 11-8 is not going to get it done.
Iowa State: Whiffed on all four chances to get a solid non-conference win (Northwestern, Northern Iowa, Cal, Duke) and missed Kansas on Saturday, meaning their best win is probably @ Nebraska. Not a bad team, but definitely NIT-caliber right now.
Nebraska: Hanging on by a thread after starting 0-4 in conference. (@ Missouri)
Pac-10
This conference continues to amaze me. There’s a good chance that nobody is worthy of an at-large bid and so only the auto bid will get in. Think about it… Washington’s struggled in early conference play. Cal doesn’t have the wins. Arizona State doesn’t exactly have a stellar resume either. I don’t know if anyone’s going to have the wins to get in on their own.
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Bubble teams:
Cal: Beat both the Oregons and are now in sole possession of first place in the Pac-10. With Washington’s demise, this team is likely the Pac-10’s best shot at an at-large. Outside of a home loss to UCLA, every other loss is reasonable for a tournament team. Their biggest weakness remains the lack of quality wins, which they really won’t get much help with for the rest of the year. If they can separate themselves enough from the rest of the conference to get 14 wins or so, they will probably get the nod from the committee. But at this rate, 12-6 might win the conference, and then things will get ugly.
Arizona State: Just as I thought a semi-favorite was emerging in conference, they go out and lose to Arizona at home. They pass the sight test to an extent, as I thought Arizona State looked pretty good at MSG against Duke, and their non-conference slate was fairly good considering what they have to work with. Their overall body of work is a little less spectacular, although they do have a good home win vs. Washington. I really don’t think the resume would hold up to other bubble teams at this point, but the Pac-10 winner will have a somewhat strong case. I don’t know.
Washington: There’s a good amount of people keeping Washington out of the tournament altogether, and I agree 100%. Look at their resume. Does this look like a tournament team to you? It sure doesn’t to me. What a shame.
Likely not in:
Washington State: Still no major wins and currently at .500 in a weak conference. I’m thinking NIT unless something turns around quickly.
Not in: USC. This special section is to remind people that even though USC has played well recently, they have banned themselves due to the O. J. Mayo stuff. They won't play in the Pac-10 tournament either.
SEC
Kentucky and Vanderbilt continue to roll along. Tennessee remains a lock for now, but I would not recommend losing to teams like Georgia anymore. The SEC solidly has 5 teams in, and could get a sixth if Florida makes a run.
Locks: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Should be in:
Mississippi State: The loss @ Alabama is probably not enough to knock them back too far, but I get the feeling this Bulldogs team is underachieving. Oh well.
Mississippi: Not in any real danger at this point. Continue winning the gimmes and the Rebels will be safely in.
Bubble teams:
Likely not in:
Florida: The Michigan State and Florida State wins can only carry you so far. Florida’s clearly 4th in the pecking order in the East and will need some wins against the top three to get in.
Atlantic 10:
Things behind Temple are starting to get somewhat muddled. Dayton and Rhode Island are moving in the wrong direction, while Xavier is holding steady. Can Charlotte make a run at a tournament spot? This conference could get anywhere from 2 to 5 teams in right now.
Locks: Temple
Should be in: None
Bubble teams:
Xavier: Man, don’t ever consider a team with three straight conference titles dead. They’re 5-1 with only a loss @ conference leading Temple. Good home win over Rhode Island on Saturday. The non-conference isn’t the best, with five losses and only a double OT win over Cincinnati to show for it. Their margin of error is slim, but they’re doing what’s necessary.
Dayton: Uh oh. The loss @ St. Joseph’s makes things interesting. Dayton hasn’t had a good win in about a month and a half and the St. Joseph’s loss gives the committee ammo to keep them out. A couple of good wins vs. Georgia Tech and Old Dominion. Dayton’s still probably in if the season ended today though.
Rhode Island: The Xavier win could’ve been huge for a team in need of some good wins. Record is still awesome, but most of those wins were against relative cupcakes. They go to Dayton on Tuesday, who is reeling. Perfect opportunity to get a quality win, on the road too.
Likely not in:
Charlotte: I’ll put them in there for now, as the Louisville win is looking better, but still not enough on the resume to make a serious case.
Mountain West
Another conference where parity may cost a team a bid, although in the MWC’s case BYU appears to be pulling away from the pack. Colorado State has started off strong, but they played some easy teams early. Outside of BYU, three teams appear to have significant cases to make the tournament. One of two will likely fall out along the way.
Locks: BYU
Should be in:
New Mexico: Their two losses in conference aren’t really that bad, and unlike the other bubble teams in the conference, they can afford a not-so-stellar conference record. BYU comes to town Wednesday for what should be an awesome game.
Bubble Teams:
UNLV: Would be in much better shape had they not lost at home to Utah. As it stands, They have wins vs. Louisville, @ New Mexico, vs. San Diego St., and a couple of assorted not as good wins. Probably in right now, but they don’t want to test the committee any more. That means no losing until February 6th at home vs. BYU.
Likely not in:
San Diego State: Tough loss at Wyoming hurts a team that has really no margin of error. Won at home vs. New Mexico, which is nice, but they may be a victim of the parity of the conference.
Others:
The mid-major landscape has been a bit of a mixed bag at this point. They have benefitted greatly from the fallout of a power conference (the Pac-10) but all of those spots will likely be taken by the A-10 and MWC, meaning at-large bids will be at a premium again for smaller conferences. Several likely candidates have emerged but none are really pulling away from the pack.
Locks: Gonzaga, Butler
Should be in:
Northern Iowa: Lost at Wichita State, but that will happen in a tough conference and that’s only their 2nd loss of the year. The MVC champ will get a bid, and that means UNI is in good shape.
Bubble Teams:
St. Mary's: Lost their best shot at home vs. Gonzaga, but did beat Portland. Decent wins over San Diego State and Oregon. It may come down to beating Gonzaga once in their three shots at them this season (should they meet in the WCC tournament).
Cornell: One of the most interesting cases we may see this season. My opinion on the Big Red: if you can’t beat Harvard in a best of three (split the regular season matchups, lose in a playoff to determine Ivy League winner), you shouldn’t be in. Plus if they don’t, they don’t have the wins to get in. Sorry. It would be fun to see them going up against some unfortunate 5 or 6 seed in the first round though.
Old Dominion: Tied with George Mason and Northeastern for the league lead, ODU has the big out of conference win vs. Georgetown but have 5 losses. They are the best team in the Colonial but they may not get an at-large if they don’t win the tournament, even if they win the conference.
UAB: One of four undefeated teams in conference. The Blazers have been the best team in the C-USA thus far, and have wins over Cincinnati and Butler. Losses to Kent St. and Virginia do hurt.
Memphis: Forgetting the name, the Tigers really have done little to suggest they're a tournament team. They do have some big games in conference, though, and are still a definite contender to win the C-USA.
In Contention:
None of these teams will be in at the moment, but they're some names to remember: William & Mary, VCU, Tulsa, UTEP, William & Mary, Tulsa, UTEP, Wichita State, Portland, Siena, Utah State, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Harvard.
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