College Basketball Preseason Predictions

As promised, here's my predictions, starting with the Final Four selections:

Final Four Picks:

UNC - Hansbrough or no Hansbrough, this team is still uber-talented and barring a major upset should be in the Final Four

UConn – It’s a safe bet that A. J. Price will be 100% by March, and with Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and pretty much everyone else coming back, this team will be extremely dangerous. They have the size on the interior few teams can match, and if their guard play remains steady, this team will be a VERY tough out in the NCAA’s

Louisville – It is worth noting this team wasn’t very good without Padgett last year, but they also didn’t have Samardo Samuels last year… and all indications point to this guy being able to come in and contribute right away. That, combined with the fact that this team was playing like a Final Four contender last year, means I’m putting them in the Final Four this year.

UCLA – Sure, they lost a lot of scoring. But when you bring in a recruiting class this good, why not? Jrue Holiday and Malcolm Lee give the Bruins two high school All-American guards to tandem with Darren Collison and Josh Shipp. The biggest concern will be the frontcourt, where guys like Mbah a Moute and Kevin Love will be missed. But then again, it seems like 95% of the teams in the country have frontcourt questions, and UCLA has a better backcourt than… well, pretty much all of them. The Bruins reach their 4^th consecutive Final Four.

Why they won’t make it:

Pitt – I still think this team’s a little too weak in the frontcourt. DeJuan Blair is a stud but undersized, Tyrell Biggs will give them solid minutes but he won’t be a post scorer. The Panther guards are outstanding, but I think in a matchup vs. a team like UNC or UConn, they simply won’t be able to handle all the big men. Definitely a Final Four contender though.

Duke – The poor man’s Pitt. Unless these freshman make a big impact in the post, they won’t have enough guard play to reach the Final Four.

Gonzaga – This team has all the expectations and talent in the world, but remember… they didn’t even make it out of the first round last year. The Zags return six of their top seven scorers, but guys like Heytvelt need to make more of an impact if Gonzaga’s going to have the depth needed to compete for a Final Four spot.

Texas – Of all these teams, I actually believe they have the best shot to make it. They have all the necessary components… a deep backcourt consisting of A. J. Abrams and Justin Mason, a talented frontcourt with Damion James and Connor Atchley, experience, good incoming freshman. The key will be Abrams. Can he step up and fill the leadership void D. J. Augustin fulfilled last year? If he can, I honestly believe this is a Final Four caliber team.

Purdue – Simply put… I don’t think we’re athletic enough. I know other people will disagree with me, but if we get matched up with a team like UConn or Louisville or UNC in the Elite Eight, I don’t think we have the athletes necessary to hang with these teams for 40 minutes, particularly in the post. Now, we do shoot well enough that we could steal a game from that, but from a prediction perspective, Elite Eight seems obtainable and reasonable.

Michigan St. – A lot of other people are high on this team. But I ask… if this team had not beaten an already injured, worn down Pitt team last year, would we really have the Spartans as a top 10 team, let alone a top 5 one? I still think this team has plenty to prove and plenty of players who need to step up. That, and the loss of Neitzel will hurt more than many expected. If the pieces fall in place, this team is talented and athletic enough to make a deep run, but I don’t see that happening.

ND – You don’t make a Final Four with two players (Harangody and McAlarney).Sorry

Memphis – Too much youth this year, although this team will be very, very good come March.

Kansas – Similar to last year’s Florida team. There’s just too many holes to fill. Maybe next year

FINAL FOUR predictions:

UNC over UCLA: UNC overpowers UCLA’s weaker frontcourt. Lawson outduels Collison in a battle of outstanding PGs.

Louisville over UConn: I think the more experienced team wins out. Plus, this Samuels guy is supposed to be a beast…

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP:

UNC over Louisville: Too many athletes, too much talent on the court for the Tar Heels. The #1 Preseason team goes wire-to-wire and wins the NC.