Bubble Watch - Jan 15th

ACC

This conference continues to look stronger as Clemson and Miami continue to pick up good wins. 5 are almost a certainty now that Miami appears to be playing at the level we expected from them earlier in the season. The downside to the top of the conference getting stronger? It hurts the middle of the conference. 7 will be very, very unlikely unless two teams emerge in conference play. 6 is no guarantee either depending on whether or not teams beat each other up.

In: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson

Should be in: Miami (FL)

Miami (Fl): Good wins @ BC and Maryland mean the Canes would definitely be in at this point. I'll still hold off lock status due to lack of a marquee win, but that could easily change if they can take down UNC on the road on Saturday. All three losses are to good teams (UConn, Ohio State without McClinton for much of the game, Clemson) but their best wins are @ Kentucky and @ St. John’s so there’s not much backing in terms of OOC wins.

Bubble teams: BC, Maryland, Florida St., NC St., VT

Boston College: Well, that's certainly not a way to follow up the biggest wn of the season. Losses to Harvard and then Miami and Wake Forest at home puts the Eagles at 1-2 in the ACC. While the loss to Harvard is particularly painful, they missed out on some chances to get additional good wins at home, which could come back to haunt them. Win @ UNC is all this team has right now. Also have that semi-ugly loss @ St. Louis. Still, if they achieve a top 5 or top 6 finish in conference that might be enough.

Maryland: Took care of business at home vs. GT and almost stole one from Miami on the road but fell two points short. Given the state of mediocrity in the middle of the ACC, I would've probably bumped them up a notch had they gotten that win, but they remain on the bubble for now.Swept the Michigan schools. Only OOC losses are to Georgetown, which is looking much better, and Gonzaga, which is still reasonable. No real reason to keep them out at this point, but a good win against the top 4 of the ACC would really cement their status.

Florida St.: Won @ NC State but couldn't take one from Duke at home. Lots of sort-of-good wins (Cincinnati, Cal, Florida, Texas Tech) but no defining win. Loss @ Northwestern could really hurt come March. There’s plenty of opportunities in the ACC to pick up defining wins but conference wins will be difficult to come by.

North Carolina St.: Missed on both Clemson and Florida St. to fall to 0-2 in conference. All OOC losses are to likely tournament teams (@ Davidson, Marquette, Florida) but those were the only quality teams on their OOC schedule so the Wolfpack are left without a decent win to speak of. Bad conference losses could start piling up as well and at this point, they appear too low on the ACC pecking order to have much of a chance.

Virginia Tech: Beat Virginia and Richmond but neither are the types of wins VT needs at this point. @ St. John’s is the best win to speak of so far, but they missed out on every other OOC opportunity and must pick up a marquee win in conference to get in the dance.

Big Ten

The conference continues to beat up on each other. Michigan St. escaped Penn St. on Wednesday and remains in good shape, but after that there's no guarantees. We could have a lot of teams around .500 in Big Ten play and a few very difficult decisions to make.

In: Michigan St.

Nobody’s safe in this conference but I’ll stick with the conference leader. Wisconsin gets bumped down a notch due to the loss at Purdue (I'll explain later).

Should be in: Purdue, Wisconsin.

Purdue: Big win over Wisconsin puts them in much safer waters. I have a hard time believing the Boilers won't get back on track in Big Ten play and at least be competitive for the Big Ten title.

Wisconsin: I moved them out of lock status because they didn't pass the eye test for me. I think there's a small chance they fall back into the middle of the pack of the Big Ten so I had to move them down a level. That being said, they always seem to look average against us and yet they still take care of business in conference, so they should be safe for now.

Bubble teams: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State

Illinois: Win over Michigan at home not terribly impressive, but they're beginning to pull away from the middle of the conference and I'm running out of reasons to keep this team out of the tournament. Won @ Purdue for their best win so far, and other wins include Georgia and Kansas State (neutral). Performance in conference will separate these Big Ten bubble teams from each other, and the Illini appear to be doing just that.

Michigan: Took the home game over Iowa but lost the road game @ Illinois. If they end up around .500 in Big Ten play, they'll get in due to wins over Duke and UCLA (neutral), but are they really one of the 34 best at-large teams in the country? Maybe. They’re a good team but I have no reason to believe this team will consistently be better than the middle of the pack of the Big 10.

Minnesota: 3-1 conference record overshadowed by the fact that two of those wins were Iowa and Penn St. Still have that win over Louisville which is looking better and better. Win over Ohio St. also big in terms of respect. Could they survive finishing below .500 in conference with the weak OOC schedule? Probably not.

Ohio State: Beat IU for their only Big Ten game of the week. This is the most interesting case. They’re currently on the bottom of this list but remember they’re losing all these games without Lighty. They’ll have him back for the tournament and the list of wins with him (@ Miami, Notre Dame) is pretty impressive. If they can pick up some good conference wins when he comes back, they might convince the committee enough to squeak in with a subpar conference record.

Big 12

If the season ended today, I'd have to put 6 teams in given the Texas A&M win over Baylor on Wednesday. But will it stay that way? The Aggies aren't out of the deep water yet, and teams like Baylor and Missouri still have to be worried about conference collapses. Teams like Nebraska and Oklahoma St. are knocking on the door.

In: OU, Texas, Kansas

Should be in: Baylor

Baylor: Loss to Texas A&M not outrageous given it was on the road and they're likely a tournament team. They have a couple of gut-check games vs. Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. before the showdown in Norman. It's very important the Bears stay upset-free until the Oklahoma game.

Bubble teams: Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., Nebraska, Kansas St.

Missouri: By resume alone, this team probably shouldn't be on the bubble. But I just get this odd feeling this team could collapse in conference play. Yes, wins over Cal and USC are big, but the more recent evidence suggests this team may fall apart against legit opponents (didn't look good at all vs. Illinois, and lost @ Nebraska). Still, the Tigers would be in if the season ended today. @ Oklahoma St. next Wednesday is huge for both teams.

Texas A&M: Big win over Baylor probably puts this team in for now. Loss to Tulsa actually looks better now after the Golden Hurricane gave Memphis all they could handle. Good win over Arizona as well, but wins over Alabama and Miss St. help but won’t clinch anything for the Aggies. This team could go either way depending on how conference play turns out, but the early signs are good for the Aggies.

Oklahoma St.: Time to take a second look at the Cowboys, who are on this list primarily for potential at this point. In the next two weeks they play @ Baylor and get Missouri and Oklahoma at home. If they can't pick up any of those, they're likely done, but one good win and this team could be squarely on the bubble. They'd likely have to jump Missouri or A&M in the conference standings to have a shot at making the dance but that could happen. Unfortunately, there's not much in the OOC portion, with their best win over Tulsa.

Nebraska: Any momentum built up by the Missouri win was instantly gone by the time they left Iowa State's gym. Ugly losses to Maryland-Baltimore County and Oregon State also hurt. Their inconsistency will likely be the Cornhuskers' downfall.

Kansas St.: Hanging on by a thread. Loss to Nebraska on Saturday would likely seal their fate. Good record masked by the fact that those three losses were to likely NIT teams (Kentucky, Oregon, Iowa). The Wildcats will likely be joining them there.

Big East

8 teams still looking good. 9 will almost certainly happen, provided Villanova starts kicking it up a notch. 10 is probably not happening, although Providence is starting to put together a somewhat compelling conference case.

In: Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, ND, Marquette, Louisville

Marquette's win over West Virginia is good enough to lock them up for now. Louisville's win over ND also good enough to put them back into lock status.

Should be in: West Virginia

West Virginia: Still looking for a good conference win, but if they stay afloat in Big East play they should be fine. Another breather @ South Florida on Saturday before a huge game @ Georgetown on Wednesday.

Bubble teams: Providence, Villanova, St. John’s, Cincinnati

Providence: They were leading Georgetown at halftime but couldn't keep it and lost by 7. It was a win they really could've used, but there are still chances left. Beating Marquette on Saturday is a much more reasonable task anyway. The OOC season wasn’t nice to the Friars, with a loss to Northeastern to begin the season and no marquee wins to speak of after missing on Baylor and St. Mary’s. Win over Rhode Island could be important for comparison purposes. The Big East season has started well and the Friars have beaten fellow bubble members St. John’s and Cincinnati, but it might not make up for the poor OOC schedule.

Villanova: Looking at the record and name, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t be a lock to get in. But look at the wins: Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s, Temple. They’d be in good shape if they played in the A-10. Right now Nova’s lacking that marquee win (missed out on a big chance by falling to Louisville), and after getting taken to OT by Seton Hall, there’s nothing to suggest this team will turn it on and make a serious conference run. Just like the previous few years, Villanova could be on the bubble until the conference tournament.

St. John’s: The Red Storm have hit a bit of a rough patch, but all these games are against good teams. They get UConn tonight on their home floor, and if they can find another big win that will really make things interesting. None of their losses are bad, but they lacked a good win until the ND game. Could they make a push to be the 10^th team in from the Big East? Their weak OOC schedule could be their downfall if they don’t finish in the top half of the conference.

Cincinnati: Won over Rutgers but that won't win over any hearts. Loss to Providence put the Bearcats in dangerous territory. All their losses are reasonable, and I like this team overall, but it’s likely NIT for them. The win @ UNLV is a good win, but that’s about it, and there’s too many teams ahead of them in the Big East pecking order right now.

SEC

Well, so much for the SEC coming out party. I can't keep Tennessee in lock status after falling to Kentucky on their home floor, and Arkansas is currently 0-2 in conference. Not only that, but teams like Mississippi State that were previously banished to NIT land are starting out well in conference. The SEC is back to where it was at the beginning of the year... a whole bunch of mediocre teams. I have no idea what's going to happen here.

In: None

Should be in: Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida

Tennessee: This is probably more a "standard procedure" move down than anything else, but you can't lose to Kentucky on your home floor and be expected to stay a lock. The Vols will be fine given the mediocrity of their conference, but they better thank their lucky stars they're not playing in a different power conference where they'd be tested every night.

Arkansas: This is really not the way to follow up losses to Top 10 teams. The Razorbacks were swept by the Mississippi schools, and there's no free wins for an Arkansas team that is still very inexperienced and definitely not used to this success. They have some chances to right the ship before their Jan 31st game vs LSU, where the Tigers will be hungry for a win.

Florida: Sure, it was Ole Miss and Auburn, but conference wins are conference wins, right? They’ve beaten all the teams they were supposed to (except @ Florida St., but I’ll give them a pass against a good rival on the road), but no marquee wins to speak of. They’ll probably get in based on sheer number of wins.

Bubble teams: LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi State

LSU: Not a good loss @ Alabama but at least held serve at home vs. South Carolina. Tough team to judge due to the lack of tests they’ve had. I’d like to think this team will end up in a similar position to Florida, but they stay on the bubble due to their best win being Washington State.

South Carolina: Win at Auburn and loss @ LSU is par for the course. Win over Baylor still looking strong. Gaudy record masks bad loss to Charleston. They still need to perform well in conference but the bid is there for the taking. Huge game coming up against a strugging Tennessee team on Saturday.

Kentucky: They were under the 8-ball early, losing to VMI, but got the big win they needed after demolishing Tennessee on the back of Jodie Meeks and his 54 points. The Wildcats have had their fair share of criticism over the course of this season but the next four games are all very winnable, and if they can take care of business at home vs. South Carolina and Mississippi State they'll probably be undefeated in SEC play when Florida comes to town on Feb. 10th. Amazing what one win can do for the team.

Mississippi State: For some odd reason, I had a feeling we'd hear from this team again. Win @ Arkansas at least puts the Bulldogs in the conversation. The resume isn't there at this point, but with Tennessee playing the way they are right now, the SEC is WIDE open and really, anything's winnable at this point.

Pac-10

It's looking like a 3 team race at this point. Two teams were expected, but Cal has crashed the party and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. Other than that... Arizona and USC are staying afloat but the water is rising and both teams need to keep the pace. Stanford is falling back to the bottom after an undefeated OOC season. Washington is attempting to make a tournament push but needs some quality conference wins. What does all this add up to? Probably 5 bids from the Pac 10.

In: UCLA, Arizona St., Cal

Top two competitors for the Pac-10 title remain locks. Cal moves into lock position after starting 4-0 in conference.

Should be in: No one.

Outside of the top 3, nobody's really separated themselves enough to get off the bubble.

Bubble teams: USC, Arizona, Stanford, Washington

USC: Expectations can only carry you so far. At this point, the Trojans need to start showing it on the court, and they missed out on a big opportunity by losing to UCLA at home. Their best wins are Georgia Tech and @ Oregon, which means they have some work to do. Handing Oregon St. their first conference win in over a year doesn’t help their case.

Arizona: Swept the Oregon schools to get back to .500 in conference play. They have some very good OOC wins (Gonzaga, Kansas) and I'd imagine they'd steal one from UCLA, Arizona St., and Cal at some point, but their inconsistencies could end up dooming them in the end.

Stanford: The Cardinal are now 1-3 in the Pac-10 after being swept by the Washingtons. .500 in Pac-10 play isn't going to be good enough, and now it looks like they may not even get that close.

Washington: Won over Stanford to stay alive on the bubble. There's still plenty of work to be done but it's a start. Loss to Cal in OT really hurts, as that was a type of win that bubble teams need to pull out. Two road games at Oregon and Oregon State before USC and UCLA come to town.

Other conferences:

The mid-major scene looks like normal… a few standouts, and a lot of question marks. The difficulty with many of these teams is judging them when they haven’t played anyone (like Illinois St. and Utah State), so we have to go on conference strength and performance. Remember most of these teams will win their conference’s auto bid, so their at-large status becomes moot.

In: Xavier, Butler, BYU, Gonzaga

Should be in: St. Mary’s, Memphis, UNLV, Dayton, Davidson

St. Mary's: Bad loss to UTEP can be overlooked due to sheer number of wins and number of good wins (Providence, @ Oregon, @ Kansas St., @ SIU). As long as they take care of business in the WCC they should be fine.

Memphis: Barely escaped Tulsa to stay perfect in C-USA play. They don’t have any real great wins (best is home v. Cincinnati) but all the losses are reasonable and they should win the C-USA which will be enough to get in.

Dayton: Loss @ UMass not a big red flag, but the Flyers could've really used that win. Still in line for 2nd in the A-10 which will be good enough. Loss @ Creighton still not good though.

Bubble teams: UNLV, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Creighton, Utah, San Diego State, Utah State, Houston

UNLV: Uh oh time. Losses to TCU and Colorado State put the Rebels in serious danger. Win @ Louisville still looks great but the losses in conference play are particularly disturbing since these aren't teams UNLV can afford to lose to. All these problems could go away Tuesday @ BYU, but there's no guarantee they'll beat Wyoming on Saturday.

Rhode Island: Loss at St. Joe's is not good, as that's a comparable bubble team. It’s hard to believe only two teams could make it from the Atlantic 10, but it could happen. Losses to Duke and Villanova are nothing to be upset about, and losses @ Providence and and Oklahoma St. aren’t awful, but there is a lack of good wins. If the Rams finish 3^rd in the conference and get a split against either Dayton or Xavier (or both), that should be enough for the committee to reluctantly let them in.

Illinois State: Loss to Indiana State not what the Redbirds needed. They'll probably need the MVC auto-bid to get in now.

Creighton: Their at-large status was already iffy heading into conference play. They're back on track in the Missouri Valley but it's not enough. They’ll likely need the MVC auto-bid.

Utah: The Utes have an extremely awful set of losses, including a loss to a Division 2 team. However, recent wins over Gonzaga and LSU have put them in at-large consideration. At this point, the resume is not good enough. But there are good wins to come by in the Mountain West, and this team is very capable of making a run and taking the regular season title.

San Diego State: Picked up the big win they needed over Utah and now have a very important game @ BYU next Saturday. If they can pull that off, I will be leading the charge to put this team in the tournament. Losses are all reasonable and relatively close, and a couple of wins over tournament teams is good enough for now.

Utah State: The WAC favorites fell to BYU on a neutral court but did beat fellow bubble member Utah. The OOC schedule probably isn’t strong enough for an at-large bid though.

Houston: I threw this team out early after losing to Georgia Southern but if teams like Utah and Kentucky can recover from bad early season losses then so can the Cougars. Currently 3-0 in C-USA and wins over UAB and UMass warrant some discussion. Memphis is beatable this year, and a split with them could draw some interest.