Games to Watch - Week of Nov 17

Preseason Tournaments:

NIT Season Tip-Off (Nov. 17-18, 26, 28)

Teams to Watch: Arizona, Davidson, Oklahoma, Purdue, UAB

Other than the teams listed here, there are others like Boston College and Georgia that I'd love to get a look at. Overall, there's lots of good teams here with a variety of styles of play and strengths, so there should be some good early season match-ups.

My Pick: Purdue. As I've stated before, Purdue's going to be in trouble vs. a team more athletic than them, but there isn't anyone in this tournament that's going to overwhelm them. Blake Griffin and OU will give the Boilers some problems, but solid shooting and defense will lead Purdue to victory.

Paradise Jam (Nov. 21-24)

Teams to Watch: Miami, San Diego, UConn, Wisconsin

A pretty strong field for an 8 team tournament. Not as strong as the Maui Invitational or the Old Spice Classic, but there should be some VERY interesting matchups later on in this tourney.

My Pick: UConn. Can't really go against the #2 team in the nation, although I think Miami could give them a run for their money if they meet in the semis. Neither San Diego nor Wisconsin have the firepower to keep up though (and yes, I am aware San Diego beat UConn in the tourney last year. Ten bucks says A. J. Price gets 2 or more points and Thabeet gets more than 14 points and 6 rebounds in 37 minutes in their next meeting)

Mon, Nov 17th

Purdue v. Eastern Michigan (7 PM, ESPN2) - Finally... some college basketball on a station I have! Oh wait... I'm going to be at that game. Never mind

Florida Atlantic v. Arizona (11PM, ESPNU) - It's been a very tumultuous off-season for Arizona. I thought the Kevin O' Neill situation was handled somewhat poorly, and then Brandon Jennings leaving for Europe, and then Lute Olson's resignation... this Wildcats team has plenty of distractions right now but they're in the NIT Tip-Off, which means there's some quality non-conference wins out there for the taking. And they're still returning some decent players. Don't count out Arizona just yet.

UAB v. Santa Clara - I've been very high on this UAB team. In fact, I'm calling it right here, right now, for everyone... UAB will beat Memphis at least once this season. That's how much I like this team. Robert Vaden is one of the best guards in the country, and the Blazers return most of their backcourt. Watch for lots of 4 guard lineups

Davidson v. James Madison - The Stephen Curry show is back... with Jason Richards, the NCAA's leading assist man. But then again, how difficult is it to get assists when you hand the ball to Curry and let him work?

UMass v. Memphis (Midnight, ESPN) - A good early season test for a young Memphis team.

Miami (OH) v. Pitt, Fordham v. Villanova, Chicago St. v. Marquette - A trio of opening games for three Big East schools. All tournament teams last year, all returning most of their key contributors. If you thought the Big East was good last year...

Tues, Nov 18th

NIT Season Tip-Off Second Round (Likely Matchups: Davidson v. Oklahoma, UAB v. Arizona, Purdue v. Georgia)

Lots of quality early season matchups here. Davidson will try to make an early season statement vs. a quality non-conference opponent, something they couldn't do last year. UAB and Arizona appear to be two programs going in opposite directions but at this point, they're around the same level. And is Georgia the team from last year's SEC tournament, or the team from the entire regular season leading up to that point?

Kentucky v. UNC (9 PM, ESPN) - I was going to mention something here about how maybe UNC is banged up right now, and this is a new, young, hungry Wildcats team, and make it sound like this is going to be a competitive game, but screw it... if you can't slow down VMI, how are you going to stop all the weapons the Tar Heels have? Not happening

Arizona St. v. San Diego St. - One of the prime candidates to take down UCLA at the top of the Pac-10 this year. All five starters are back from last year's team, and with the three teams above them (other than UCLA) in the Pac-10 last year all likely getting worse, Arizona St. becomes the clear #2 in the conference. Will they steal one from UCLA, though?

New Mexico St v. USC - Losing O. J. Mayo hurts. Gaining high school All-American Demar DeRozan... that helps a little. He adds to a solid nucleus of Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett, and Dwight Lewis to likely make USC a tournament team again.

Plus there's games going on ESPN all day, including Syracuse, Baylor, and a few good small conference teams like UNC-Asheville. Might be worth your while to check some out

Wed, Nov. 19th

UNC-Wilmington v. Wake Forest - Much is expected of this young Demon Deacon team and their outstanding freshman class. Early on I think they could struggle vs. more experienced teams but they will be a serious ACC threat later this season

South Dakota St. v. VCU - Last year's Colonial favorites fell in the conference tourney semis and failed to make the tournament. They look to avenge that loss this time in an even more crowded Colonial conference with lots of teams returning plenty of starters. This game is in the Cancun Challenge, a smaller tournament that includes Vanderbilt, New Mexico, and Drake, last year's Valley champs. It should be decent competition.

Thurs, Nov. 20th

Coaches v. Cancer Semi-Finals:

Duke v. SIU (7 PM, ESPN2) - Tempo, tempo, tempo. On the one hand you have Duke with their plethora of guards and wingmen trying to run the floor and push the pace, and on the other hand you have SIU who is traditionally one of the slowest paced teams in college basketball. Obviously if this game turns into a slugfest Duke will run away with it, but if SIU can slow down the tempo, they may have an advantage. Duke was somewhat sloppy and turnover prone during their first game, and if they come out sluggish again, SIU can control the pace, limit turnovers, and make some threes, this one could go down to the wire. One similarity between the two teams? A variety of scorers. Both have their leaders (Singler for Duke, Fey for SIU) but both also have plenty of guys who are a threat offensively.

UCLA v. Michigan (9 PM, ESPN2) - If Manny Harris goes off big time (and I mean, like, 40 points) then maybe the Wolverines have a shot. But I don't see it. UCLA is too good defensively to allow one guy to beat them like that. And if Manny isn't scoring, Michigan has few other options offensively. Michigan may keep it close early, but look for UCLA to pull away in the 2nd half.

Chattanooga v. Memphis (4:30 PM, ESPN2) - If you missed your chance at seeing Memphis at midnight on Monday, here's your opportunity to see them at a more reasonable time... except for college students, midnight might be a more reasonable time than 4:30 in the afternoon when we have classes/homework to get done

Fairfield v. Virginia Tech, Stetson v. Florida State - The top 4 of the ACC appears pretty solid (UNC, Duke, Miami, Wake Forest). After that, it's a logjam of teams including Clemson, Maryland, Georgia Tech, and these two schools. Last year the middle of the ACC beat up on each other so much a 5th ACC team wasn't able to emerge from the pack and the conference only got 4 in. Will a 5th ACC team emerge this year as a viable tournament contender?

Fri, Nov. 21st

**Coaches v. Cancer Championship** - Preview coming Thursday night! (Hopefully)

Winthrop v. Davidson - Winthrop's absolutely dominated the Big South recently, but if anyone's going to dethrone the Eagles, now's the time to do it. They lost four of their top five scorers and conference runners-up UNC Asheville and newcomers Gardner-Webb appear to be the best options for a new Big South rep in the tourney. AND Winthrop just got pounded by South Carolina on Sunday... and the Gamecocks are a borderline NCAA Tournament team at best. We may see a new Big South champ this year.

Notre Dame v. Loyola Marymount - Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney return from last year's very good Irish squad. But in the Big East, there's little margin for error. If these guys aren't scoring consistently every night, who will step up and hit shots?

Southern Miss v. Miami (FL) - Hey, Miami's ranked. No surprise... wait... this isn't football? What?? But yea, this Miami team's good. I remember watching a Miami game last year, and I saw Jack McClinton and I was like, "Woah. This guy's pretty good." Even better... the Hurricanes return four starters from last year's team that gave Texas all they could handle in the 2nd round. Could they compete for an ACC title?

Sat, Nov. 22

Mainly just some Top 25 teams beating up (hopefully) on mediocre schools and a bunch of small preseason tournament games. Nothing really on TV... November Saturdays are still football saturdays. Maybe I'll blog about college football that day...

Sun, Nov. 23

Paradise Jam Semi-Finals (likely matchups: Miami v. UConn, San Diego v. Wisconsin)

Miami and UConn will be a lot of fun to watch. San Diego and Wisconsin should be close, but will probably be a very slow game. Both should be competitive, although the Miami - UConn game really should be for the championship.

Weekend Quick Hitters, pt. 2

Saturday's games:

UNC - Beat Penn 86-71. Remove Hansbrough, insert Tyler Zeller and Ed Davis. 18 for Zeller and a double-double for Davis... yea, this is like replacing Shaq in his prime with Hakeem at center. Deon Thompson added 17 for the Tar Heels. It will be interesting to see how the Kentucky guards, particularly Jodie Meeks, do against a banged up Tar Heels backcourt without their best perimeter defender (Ginyard). But the Tar Heels should be able to score enough that it won't be a problem.

Gonzaga - Beat Mt. St. Billings 83-52. 15 points apiece for Austin Gaye and Josh Heytvelt. If Heytvelt can be the guy he was freshman year, the Zags are going to be VERY tough to beat. Daye also showed no signs of his injury over the summer (partially torn knee ligament). Together, they give Gonzaga one of the best frontcourts in the country.

Memphis - Beat Fairfield 90-63. Freshman Tyreke Evans scored 19 in his college debut, and four other Tigers scored in double figures. They struggledc with Fairfield's zone early but Taggart started taking control of the game inside and the Tigers never looked back. Memphis did give up 50% shooting, including 44% from 3, which could be a problem.

Tennessee - Beat Chattanooga 114-75. 32 assists for the Vols on Saturday, a team record. Tyler Smith led with 21 points. Junior Guard Bobby Maze had 12 points and 10 assists, and Tennessee shot almost 59% from the floor.

Miami - Beat Florida Southern 96-60. Lots of production from the usual suspects - McClinton, Dwayne Collins - but newcomers Cyrus McGowan and DeQuan Jones also had good starts, which will be huge for the Hurricanes because, well, this team was pretty good last year when they didn't have these guys.

USC - Beat UC Irvine 78-55. This game was actually close for a while. USC was clinging to a 1 point lead with a minute left in the first half. But a 23-7 run after halftime put it away. DeMar DeRozan had a pretty solid debut with 14 points in 28 minutes. Guard Dwight Lewis added 18 and Taj Gibson added 17 to lead the Trojans.

In non Top 25 news... Florida State barely beat Jacksonville 59-57. Cleveland State won a close game vs. Oakland 58-55 and they get an important non-conference game coming up on Tuesday (@ Washington). Lipscomb put up 121 on Oakland City in their win. And Washington St. held Miss Valley St. to only 26 points in a win. Something tells me they'll be competitive in the Pac 10 this year despite all the seniors they lost.

Weekend Quick Hitters

Ok, nothing too special about this segment. Just a few sentences about the major teams that played Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. There weren't really any exciting games, except for Kentucky's loss to VMI (I'll get into that in MUCH more detail later)

UConn - beat Western Carolina, 81-55. Thabeet is a beast. A. J. Price's knee looked good but he didn't register a point in 25 minutes of play. He also twisted his ankle pretty bad in the first half and was ejected for a flagrant foul with just over 7 minutes left

Pitt- beat Farleigh Dickinson 86-63. Lavance Fields showed no signs of his former foot injury and DeJuan Blair went off for 17 points and 13 rebounds in 27 minutes of play.

Texas - beat Stetson 68-38. Abrams was 5-9 from 3 pt, Atchley and James had 14 and 13 points respectively, and Texas held Stetson to 26 % shooting.

Purdue - beat Detroit 82-50. E'Twaun Moore paced the Boilers with 18 off the bench, JaJuan Johnson had 17 points (look for an enhanced role from him on offense this year), and Purdue set a school record with only 3 turnovers. Not bad for your first game

Oklahoma - beat American 83-54. Blake Griffin had 24 points and a career high 18 boards. However, he was only 5 for 14 from the line. Sophomore Cade Davis chipped in 11, including 3 threes.

Arizona St - beat Miss Valley St 80-64. James Harden had a double-double (24 points, 10 assists). But get this: Arizona St shot almost 58 percent from the floor and had 24 assists for 26 baskets, but head coach Herb Snedek said he still thought his players were too deliberate and the ball didn't move freely. I wonder what this team could do when they aren't this slow...

Marquette - beat Houston Baptist 95-64. Wesley Matthews had 27 to lead everyone and Jerel McNeal pitched in 20. Junior Forward Lazar Hayward added 19 points, and maybe he can be a frontcourt option for a Marquette team that needs one. One final note... the guy who led Houston Baptist in scoring, Gordon Watt, used to play for Purdue. Go figure

Florida - beat Toledo 80-58. Dan Werner had 19 points to lead Florida, while Calathes added 16 points and 7 assists. Florida forced Toledo into 4 10 second violations. I rarely see even one a game in the games I watch... interesting

Davidson - beat Guilford 107-83. Stephon Curry appeared to settle into his new role of scorer/distributor/do-everything, with 29 points, 10 assists, and 9 steals. Andrew Lovedale added 16 in the paint for the Wildcats.

Wake Forest - beat North Carolina Central 94-48. 5 guys scored in double figures for the Demon Deacons, including freshmen Al-Farouq Aminu (21 points) and Tony Woods (12 points). Wake shot almost 60%, NCCU shot almost 27%. If you weren't a believer in Wake before this season... you might want to re-think that

Villanova - beat Albany 78-60. Lots of scoring distribution for the Wildcats as six players all had 10 or more. Scottie Reynolds scored all of his 13 in the 2nd half but was only 4-11 from the floor. Nova is missing senior guard Dwayne Anderson (out indefinitely with a stress fracture) and senior forward Shane Clark (surgery on his right knee, out 3-6 weeks)

Other random non Top-25 stuff:
Virginia Tech was outscored 36-25 by Gardner-Webb in the 2nd half and barely held on to win 65-62. Oregon squeaked out a win over Northern Colorado. And... poor Oregon State... they lost to Howard 47-45. 0-18 in Pac-10 play, here we come. Again

Oh, and this team from the University of Kentucky... ever heard of them? They lost to VMI 111-103. AND they were lucky it was that close. VMI had over a 20 point lead on Kentucky with 14 minutes to go in the game. Anyway, I plan on writing a piece on this Wildcats team in the near future, because that's now two embarrassing losses in two years for Billy Gillispie and this Wildcats team, and now they're going to have to make another miracle run to get back in the tournament this year. Sad, sad happenings in Lexington.

Early Coaches v. Cancer Impressions

I haven't actually gotten a chance to see a game yet... stupid ESPNU... but we can still draw some conclusions from the early round Coaches v. Cancer games. Remember... the semifinals are set and will take place in Madison Square Garden on Thursday. It's Duke vs. SIU in the first game (7 PM, ESPN2) and UCLA vs. Michigan in the second game (9 PM, ESPN2).



Duke - They had 21 turnovers against Presbetyrian but cleaned it up vs. Georgia Southern and turned in a much more efficient offensive performance. Kyle Singler is going to be a beast this year. He appears to be taking control of this offense, he's getting to the line a lot, creating his own offense, and finishing at the glass. I think Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer will have an expanded role in this offense as well. Overall, Duke has a lot of options offensively, and there's 4 or 5 guys that can go off and burn you on any given night. The jury's still out on whether or not these young forwards - Plumlee and Czyz - can compete with the top frontcourt players in the country. The freshman all saw limited minutes in the first two games and were somewhat sloppy, particularly in the Georgia Southern game. Plumlee had a nice block in the Presbetyrian game though. 7-1 center Greg Zoubek started for Duke against Georgia Southern and appeared to give them some good minutes and should give them some size and toughness but he isn't going to be a scorer in the post. It's also worth noting this team shot 51% from the foul line against Georgia Southern. We'll find out more in the coming weeks about that

Houston - Not quite ready for the big time yet. There's plenty of new faces for this Cougars team and it showed, losing to Georgia Southern in their first game. I will monitor this team's progress over the season and by the end they should be somewhat competitive in the C-USA, but I think a tourney bid is too much to ask right now

SIU - The Salukis have traditionally been an extremely slow paced team and at first this year appeared to be no exception as they grinded out a 66-52 win over California (Pa). Then they lit up UMass for 52 in the 2nd half, including 9 threes, en route to a 80-73 victory. They were helped by 26 points off of 20 UMass turnovers. They lost 3 of their top 4 scorers from last year but it appears they have guys who can fill the needed scoring load, like 6-8 forward Carlton Fey. Supporting Fey will be a variety of guys who could all score 10-15 on any given night, giving the Salukis a variety of options offensively. The Salukis struggled to find their groove early in the California (Pa) and it was tied at half, and 19 turnovers against a non Div 1 team has to be a concern, especially for a team that has such few possessions as SIU. They cleaned it up vs. UMass and I think if this team can control the ball, limit turnovers, hit some shots like they did in the 2nd half vs. UMass, they might be able to give Duke a run for their money.

UMass - The Minutemen had a solid performance vs. Ark-Monticello but turnovers and a few hot hands did them in vs. SIU. The team's leading scorer will likely be G Ricky Harris, who averaged over 18 a game last year and over 23 in UMass's first two games this season. His 3 pt % improved by 13% last year and he appears to have a shot at breaking 40% this year (he's 9 for 18 so far). Harris, Chris Lowe, and Anthony Gurley give the Minutemen a very capable backcourt, but the frontcourt appears to be lacking in talent. It will also be interesting to see if depth becomes a problem, as UMass played 4 guys for over 30 minutes against SIU.

UCLA - So much for the youth movement. When it seemed like Ben Howland was ready to hand the reins to a new class of Bruin freshman (played 5 freshman against Prairie View A&M), Thursday's game was handled mostly by seniors Josh Shipp and Darren Collison, who each scored 16 en route to a 64-59 win over a scrappy Miami (OH) team. I thought Miami (OH) would give UCLA a decent game but I didn't expect it to be this close. Then again, with UCLA's slow-paced, halfcourt offense and grind it out mentality they're going to have plenty of ugly wins this season. Jrue Holiday started again vs. Miami (OH) but his playing time was limited as was the rest of the freshman class. These freshman are in a great situation, as there's plenty of senior leadership on this UCLA team, but guys will have to fill in roles, especially holes left by Kevin Love and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute in the post. Free throw shooting could also be a concern for UCLA this season

Michigan - As I expected, Manny Harris appears to be coming into his own this year. After averaging 16 points a game last year and emerging as one of the bright young freshman in the Big 10, Harris put up 30 and 26 in Michigan's two wins. He's shooting over 65% from the floor and got to the line consistently the past two games. After him, DeShawn Sims is solid, but the rest of the team is lacking offensive firepower. This showed last year when Michigan would go on long offensive droughts, especially during the Big Ten season. If Michigan is going to want to compete for a postseason spot, somebody other than Harris and Sims and preferably an outside shooter needs to step up and take away some of the scoring load.

Games to Watch - Week of Nov 10th

Here’s a small preview of some of the big games for the week of Nov 10^th. There aren’t a lot of good matchups this week, as it’s mainly warm up games for the top teams and preliminary rounds for the preseason tournaments. Look for some good potential matchups next week, including a possible top 10 showdown in the Coaches v. Cancer Classic Final.

Preseason Tournaments:

Coaches v. Cancer Classic (Nov 10-21)

Teams to Watch: Duke, Houston, SIU, UCLA

My pick: UCLA. Too much talent at too many positions. They should overwhelm everyone in this tournament until they get to Duke, and the Blue Devils just don’t have the size to win against a team this good… not yet anyway

CBE Classic (Nov 14-25)

Teams to Watch: Florida, Syracuse, Kansas, Washington

My pick: Syracuse. I’ll take them to upset Florida on Nov. 24 and beat an inexperienced Jayhawk team the next day to take this title. This Syracuse team is going to show just how deep the Big East is

Nov 10^th:

Houston v. Georgia Southern – First game of the season! Houston looks to try and pick up an at-large bid in a C-USA conference that should be much improved overall from the past few years

Duke v. Presbyterian (ESPNU) – Duke was a very good team last year and return almost everyone except Demarcus Nelson. The guard play will be great again, but will one of the incoming freshman (Olek Czyz or Miles Plumlee) be able to step in and fill gaps in the frontcourt?

Nov 11^th:

Durham Regional Final, Coaches v. Cancer (ESPNU) (Likely Match-up: Duke v. Houston)

California (Pa) v. SIU – The Salukis missed out on the NCAA tournament last year after massive preseason expectations last year. This year they return the MVC’s defensive player of the year Bryan Mullins but lose a couple of key frontcourt guys. The incoming freshman have plenty of hype (Two top 100 recruits for a Valley school is pretty good) and athleticism, but can they fill the gaps quickly?

Nov 12^th:

Carbondale Regional Final, Coaches v. Cancer (Likely Match-up: SIU v. UMass)

Prairie View A&M v. UCLA (ESPNU) – The Bruins are loaded and have a great bunch of recruits coming in. No surprise there. The key for this team to return to a fourth straight Final Four will be replacing key players Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. That’s a lot of production to replace, but UCLA has the talent and coaching to do it.

Nov 13th:

Los Angeles Regional Final, Coaches v. Cancer (ESPNU) (Likely Match-up: UCLA vs. Miami (OH))

Nov 14^th:

Toledo v. Florida (ESPNU) – I will be watching this Gators team VERY closely. They have all the talent in the world but don’t always seem to work together at times. Billy Donovan has already publicly questioned this team’s heart and desire. The SEC is wide open, so if the Gators want to, they could be a very dangerous team this year. The question is… will they take it?

Stetson v. Texas – The loss of D. J. Augustin will hurt, but returning everyone else makes them the favorite in the Big 12 in my mind.

Western Carolina v. UConn – This Huskies team is #2 in the polls for a reason. They return everyone from a team that was arguably the best team in the Big East at points last year. A. J. Price needs to recover fully from blowing out his knee in the NCAA Tournament last year, and Thabeet needs to continue to develop offensively, but if that happens this team will be a National Title contender.

American v. Oklahoma (ESPN Full Court) – Many are picking this team to win the Big 12. I ask… who will help Blake Griffin with the scoring load? Plus, I have American winning the Patriot League, so this could be a semi-competitive game

Detroit v. Purdue (ESPN Full Court) – You will be hearing plenty about this Boilermaker team, I guarantee you :)

Nov. 15^th:

Penn v. UNC – The season opens for the clear preseason favorites. This team has basically no weaknesses… athleticism, experience, shooting, defense, depth… this team has it all. But as we all know, teams don’t win national championships on paper.

Chattanooga v. Tennessee – Many people are looking at what this Vols team lost: Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith. I prefer to look at what they return: Athletic wingman Tyler Smith, Wayne Chism in the post, J. P. Prince, and a bunch of freshman looking to fill key roles. That, plus an SEC that is weak at the top, means Tennessee will be the favorites in the SEC.

Mt St. Billings v. Gonzaga – I’m probably higher on the Zags than most people, but this team returns everyone from a squad last year that, had they not run into the Stephen Curry Express last year, had a real shot at making the Sweet 16. The key will be a healthy return for Josh Heytvelt and continued progress from guys like Jeremy Pargo.

Nov 16th:

Long Beach State v. Wisconsin - I have a feeling that even though Wisconsin lost key senior leaders like Brian Butch and Michael Flowers, this team will be competitive in the Big 10. Or maybe it's just because the Big 10 isn't very good this year.

UMKC v. Kansas (ESPNU) - The National Champs return to defend their title but will have a new look with so many new faces. I think Bill Self will have this team on the right track but they're still a year away from really competiting for a national title.

Idaho v. Michigan St. - Raymar Morgan, Kalin Lucas, etc... time to prove me wrong. At least, not too much. Take 2nd in the Big 10 and then go on your Final Four run. That's cool with me

College Basketball Preseason Predictions

As promised, here's my predictions, starting with the Final Four selections:

Final Four Picks:

UNC - Hansbrough or no Hansbrough, this team is still uber-talented and barring a major upset should be in the Final Four

UConn – It’s a safe bet that A. J. Price will be 100% by March, and with Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and pretty much everyone else coming back, this team will be extremely dangerous. They have the size on the interior few teams can match, and if their guard play remains steady, this team will be a VERY tough out in the NCAA’s

Louisville – It is worth noting this team wasn’t very good without Padgett last year, but they also didn’t have Samardo Samuels last year… and all indications point to this guy being able to come in and contribute right away. That, combined with the fact that this team was playing like a Final Four contender last year, means I’m putting them in the Final Four this year.

UCLA – Sure, they lost a lot of scoring. But when you bring in a recruiting class this good, why not? Jrue Holiday and Malcolm Lee give the Bruins two high school All-American guards to tandem with Darren Collison and Josh Shipp. The biggest concern will be the frontcourt, where guys like Mbah a Moute and Kevin Love will be missed. But then again, it seems like 95% of the teams in the country have frontcourt questions, and UCLA has a better backcourt than… well, pretty much all of them. The Bruins reach their 4^th consecutive Final Four.

Why they won’t make it:

Pitt – I still think this team’s a little too weak in the frontcourt. DeJuan Blair is a stud but undersized, Tyrell Biggs will give them solid minutes but he won’t be a post scorer. The Panther guards are outstanding, but I think in a matchup vs. a team like UNC or UConn, they simply won’t be able to handle all the big men. Definitely a Final Four contender though.

Duke – The poor man’s Pitt. Unless these freshman make a big impact in the post, they won’t have enough guard play to reach the Final Four.

Gonzaga – This team has all the expectations and talent in the world, but remember… they didn’t even make it out of the first round last year. The Zags return six of their top seven scorers, but guys like Heytvelt need to make more of an impact if Gonzaga’s going to have the depth needed to compete for a Final Four spot.

Texas – Of all these teams, I actually believe they have the best shot to make it. They have all the necessary components… a deep backcourt consisting of A. J. Abrams and Justin Mason, a talented frontcourt with Damion James and Connor Atchley, experience, good incoming freshman. The key will be Abrams. Can he step up and fill the leadership void D. J. Augustin fulfilled last year? If he can, I honestly believe this is a Final Four caliber team.

Purdue – Simply put… I don’t think we’re athletic enough. I know other people will disagree with me, but if we get matched up with a team like UConn or Louisville or UNC in the Elite Eight, I don’t think we have the athletes necessary to hang with these teams for 40 minutes, particularly in the post. Now, we do shoot well enough that we could steal a game from that, but from a prediction perspective, Elite Eight seems obtainable and reasonable.

Michigan St. – A lot of other people are high on this team. But I ask… if this team had not beaten an already injured, worn down Pitt team last year, would we really have the Spartans as a top 10 team, let alone a top 5 one? I still think this team has plenty to prove and plenty of players who need to step up. That, and the loss of Neitzel will hurt more than many expected. If the pieces fall in place, this team is talented and athletic enough to make a deep run, but I don’t see that happening.

ND – You don’t make a Final Four with two players (Harangody and McAlarney).Sorry

Memphis – Too much youth this year, although this team will be very, very good come March.

Kansas – Similar to last year’s Florida team. There’s just too many holes to fill. Maybe next year

FINAL FOUR predictions:

UNC over UCLA: UNC overpowers UCLA’s weaker frontcourt. Lawson outduels Collison in a battle of outstanding PGs.

Louisville over UConn: I think the more experienced team wins out. Plus, this Samuels guy is supposed to be a beast…

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP:

UNC over Louisville: Too many athletes, too much talent on the court for the Tar Heels. The #1 Preseason team goes wire-to-wire and wins the NC.

2008-09 NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Bracket Projections - Preseason Special!!

The first bracket of the year!!

Notes: Bracket is set up like the actual NCAA bracket, in that the #1 1 seed (UNC) plays the #4 1 seed (UCLA) and the #2 (UConn) plays the #3 (Louisville). Conference winners in italics

South Regional (Memphis)

1. UNC (ACC)
16. Play-in (Big Sky vs. SWAC)

8. West Virginia
9. Ohio St.

4. Wisconsin
13. SIU (Missouri Valley)

5. Tennessee (SEC)
12. Siena (MAAC)

3. Purdue (Big 10)
14. UC Santa Barbera (Big West)

6. Kansas
11. Washington

2. Texas (Big 12)
15. Lamar (Southland)

7. UAB
10. Dayton

West Regional (Glendale)

1. UCLA (Pac-10)
16. Mt. St. Mary's (NEC)

8. Davidson (Southern)
9. St. Mary's

4. Villanova
13. Cornell (Ivy League)

5. Baylor
12. Mississippi St.

3. Memphis (C-USA)
14. Nevada (WAC)

6. USC
11. VCU (Colonial)

2. Pitt
15. Boston U. (America East)

7. Xavier (Atlantic 10)
10. BYU

East Regional (Boston)

1. UConn (Big East)
16. Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)

8. LSU
9. Georgetown

4. Oklahoma
13. Kent St. (MAC)

5. Miami (FL)
12. Cleveland St. (Horizon)

3. Michigan St.
14. American (Patriot)

6. Arizona St.
11. Alabama

2. Gonzaga (WCC)
15. North Dakota St. (Summit)

7. Kentucky
10. Virginia Tech

Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)

1. Louisville
16. UNC Asheville (Big South)

8. San Diego
9. Arizona

4. Marquette
13. Morgan St. (MEAC)

5. Florida
12. Clemson

3. Notre Dame
14. Middle Tennessee St. (Sun Belt)

6. Syracuse
11. Temple

2. Duke
15. Belmont (A-Sun)

7. UNLV (Mountain West)
10. Missouri

Last Four In:
Alabama
Temple
Mississippi St.
Clemson

Last Four Out:
UMass
Florida St.
St. Joseph's
Texas A & M

Next Four Out:
Oklahoma St.
Providence
Ole Miss
Minnesota

By Conference:
Big East (9)
ACC (6)
SEC (6)
Big 12 (5)
Pac 10 (5)
Big 10 (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
WCC (3)
C-USA (2)
Mountain West (2)

Predictions coming tomorrow!!