Bubble Watch - Jan 15th

ACC

This conference continues to look stronger as Clemson and Miami continue to pick up good wins. 5 are almost a certainty now that Miami appears to be playing at the level we expected from them earlier in the season. The downside to the top of the conference getting stronger? It hurts the middle of the conference. 7 will be very, very unlikely unless two teams emerge in conference play. 6 is no guarantee either depending on whether or not teams beat each other up.

In: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson

Should be in: Miami (FL)

Miami (Fl): Good wins @ BC and Maryland mean the Canes would definitely be in at this point. I'll still hold off lock status due to lack of a marquee win, but that could easily change if they can take down UNC on the road on Saturday. All three losses are to good teams (UConn, Ohio State without McClinton for much of the game, Clemson) but their best wins are @ Kentucky and @ St. John’s so there’s not much backing in terms of OOC wins.

Bubble teams: BC, Maryland, Florida St., NC St., VT

Boston College: Well, that's certainly not a way to follow up the biggest wn of the season. Losses to Harvard and then Miami and Wake Forest at home puts the Eagles at 1-2 in the ACC. While the loss to Harvard is particularly painful, they missed out on some chances to get additional good wins at home, which could come back to haunt them. Win @ UNC is all this team has right now. Also have that semi-ugly loss @ St. Louis. Still, if they achieve a top 5 or top 6 finish in conference that might be enough.

Maryland: Took care of business at home vs. GT and almost stole one from Miami on the road but fell two points short. Given the state of mediocrity in the middle of the ACC, I would've probably bumped them up a notch had they gotten that win, but they remain on the bubble for now.Swept the Michigan schools. Only OOC losses are to Georgetown, which is looking much better, and Gonzaga, which is still reasonable. No real reason to keep them out at this point, but a good win against the top 4 of the ACC would really cement their status.

Florida St.: Won @ NC State but couldn't take one from Duke at home. Lots of sort-of-good wins (Cincinnati, Cal, Florida, Texas Tech) but no defining win. Loss @ Northwestern could really hurt come March. There’s plenty of opportunities in the ACC to pick up defining wins but conference wins will be difficult to come by.

North Carolina St.: Missed on both Clemson and Florida St. to fall to 0-2 in conference. All OOC losses are to likely tournament teams (@ Davidson, Marquette, Florida) but those were the only quality teams on their OOC schedule so the Wolfpack are left without a decent win to speak of. Bad conference losses could start piling up as well and at this point, they appear too low on the ACC pecking order to have much of a chance.

Virginia Tech: Beat Virginia and Richmond but neither are the types of wins VT needs at this point. @ St. John’s is the best win to speak of so far, but they missed out on every other OOC opportunity and must pick up a marquee win in conference to get in the dance.

Big Ten

The conference continues to beat up on each other. Michigan St. escaped Penn St. on Wednesday and remains in good shape, but after that there's no guarantees. We could have a lot of teams around .500 in Big Ten play and a few very difficult decisions to make.

In: Michigan St.

Nobody’s safe in this conference but I’ll stick with the conference leader. Wisconsin gets bumped down a notch due to the loss at Purdue (I'll explain later).

Should be in: Purdue, Wisconsin.

Purdue: Big win over Wisconsin puts them in much safer waters. I have a hard time believing the Boilers won't get back on track in Big Ten play and at least be competitive for the Big Ten title.

Wisconsin: I moved them out of lock status because they didn't pass the eye test for me. I think there's a small chance they fall back into the middle of the pack of the Big Ten so I had to move them down a level. That being said, they always seem to look average against us and yet they still take care of business in conference, so they should be safe for now.

Bubble teams: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State

Illinois: Win over Michigan at home not terribly impressive, but they're beginning to pull away from the middle of the conference and I'm running out of reasons to keep this team out of the tournament. Won @ Purdue for their best win so far, and other wins include Georgia and Kansas State (neutral). Performance in conference will separate these Big Ten bubble teams from each other, and the Illini appear to be doing just that.

Michigan: Took the home game over Iowa but lost the road game @ Illinois. If they end up around .500 in Big Ten play, they'll get in due to wins over Duke and UCLA (neutral), but are they really one of the 34 best at-large teams in the country? Maybe. They’re a good team but I have no reason to believe this team will consistently be better than the middle of the pack of the Big 10.

Minnesota: 3-1 conference record overshadowed by the fact that two of those wins were Iowa and Penn St. Still have that win over Louisville which is looking better and better. Win over Ohio St. also big in terms of respect. Could they survive finishing below .500 in conference with the weak OOC schedule? Probably not.

Ohio State: Beat IU for their only Big Ten game of the week. This is the most interesting case. They’re currently on the bottom of this list but remember they’re losing all these games without Lighty. They’ll have him back for the tournament and the list of wins with him (@ Miami, Notre Dame) is pretty impressive. If they can pick up some good conference wins when he comes back, they might convince the committee enough to squeak in with a subpar conference record.

Big 12

If the season ended today, I'd have to put 6 teams in given the Texas A&M win over Baylor on Wednesday. But will it stay that way? The Aggies aren't out of the deep water yet, and teams like Baylor and Missouri still have to be worried about conference collapses. Teams like Nebraska and Oklahoma St. are knocking on the door.

In: OU, Texas, Kansas

Should be in: Baylor

Baylor: Loss to Texas A&M not outrageous given it was on the road and they're likely a tournament team. They have a couple of gut-check games vs. Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. before the showdown in Norman. It's very important the Bears stay upset-free until the Oklahoma game.

Bubble teams: Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., Nebraska, Kansas St.

Missouri: By resume alone, this team probably shouldn't be on the bubble. But I just get this odd feeling this team could collapse in conference play. Yes, wins over Cal and USC are big, but the more recent evidence suggests this team may fall apart against legit opponents (didn't look good at all vs. Illinois, and lost @ Nebraska). Still, the Tigers would be in if the season ended today. @ Oklahoma St. next Wednesday is huge for both teams.

Texas A&M: Big win over Baylor probably puts this team in for now. Loss to Tulsa actually looks better now after the Golden Hurricane gave Memphis all they could handle. Good win over Arizona as well, but wins over Alabama and Miss St. help but won’t clinch anything for the Aggies. This team could go either way depending on how conference play turns out, but the early signs are good for the Aggies.

Oklahoma St.: Time to take a second look at the Cowboys, who are on this list primarily for potential at this point. In the next two weeks they play @ Baylor and get Missouri and Oklahoma at home. If they can't pick up any of those, they're likely done, but one good win and this team could be squarely on the bubble. They'd likely have to jump Missouri or A&M in the conference standings to have a shot at making the dance but that could happen. Unfortunately, there's not much in the OOC portion, with their best win over Tulsa.

Nebraska: Any momentum built up by the Missouri win was instantly gone by the time they left Iowa State's gym. Ugly losses to Maryland-Baltimore County and Oregon State also hurt. Their inconsistency will likely be the Cornhuskers' downfall.

Kansas St.: Hanging on by a thread. Loss to Nebraska on Saturday would likely seal their fate. Good record masked by the fact that those three losses were to likely NIT teams (Kentucky, Oregon, Iowa). The Wildcats will likely be joining them there.

Big East

8 teams still looking good. 9 will almost certainly happen, provided Villanova starts kicking it up a notch. 10 is probably not happening, although Providence is starting to put together a somewhat compelling conference case.

In: Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, ND, Marquette, Louisville

Marquette's win over West Virginia is good enough to lock them up for now. Louisville's win over ND also good enough to put them back into lock status.

Should be in: West Virginia

West Virginia: Still looking for a good conference win, but if they stay afloat in Big East play they should be fine. Another breather @ South Florida on Saturday before a huge game @ Georgetown on Wednesday.

Bubble teams: Providence, Villanova, St. John’s, Cincinnati

Providence: They were leading Georgetown at halftime but couldn't keep it and lost by 7. It was a win they really could've used, but there are still chances left. Beating Marquette on Saturday is a much more reasonable task anyway. The OOC season wasn’t nice to the Friars, with a loss to Northeastern to begin the season and no marquee wins to speak of after missing on Baylor and St. Mary’s. Win over Rhode Island could be important for comparison purposes. The Big East season has started well and the Friars have beaten fellow bubble members St. John’s and Cincinnati, but it might not make up for the poor OOC schedule.

Villanova: Looking at the record and name, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t be a lock to get in. But look at the wins: Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s, Temple. They’d be in good shape if they played in the A-10. Right now Nova’s lacking that marquee win (missed out on a big chance by falling to Louisville), and after getting taken to OT by Seton Hall, there’s nothing to suggest this team will turn it on and make a serious conference run. Just like the previous few years, Villanova could be on the bubble until the conference tournament.

St. John’s: The Red Storm have hit a bit of a rough patch, but all these games are against good teams. They get UConn tonight on their home floor, and if they can find another big win that will really make things interesting. None of their losses are bad, but they lacked a good win until the ND game. Could they make a push to be the 10^th team in from the Big East? Their weak OOC schedule could be their downfall if they don’t finish in the top half of the conference.

Cincinnati: Won over Rutgers but that won't win over any hearts. Loss to Providence put the Bearcats in dangerous territory. All their losses are reasonable, and I like this team overall, but it’s likely NIT for them. The win @ UNLV is a good win, but that’s about it, and there’s too many teams ahead of them in the Big East pecking order right now.

SEC

Well, so much for the SEC coming out party. I can't keep Tennessee in lock status after falling to Kentucky on their home floor, and Arkansas is currently 0-2 in conference. Not only that, but teams like Mississippi State that were previously banished to NIT land are starting out well in conference. The SEC is back to where it was at the beginning of the year... a whole bunch of mediocre teams. I have no idea what's going to happen here.

In: None

Should be in: Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida

Tennessee: This is probably more a "standard procedure" move down than anything else, but you can't lose to Kentucky on your home floor and be expected to stay a lock. The Vols will be fine given the mediocrity of their conference, but they better thank their lucky stars they're not playing in a different power conference where they'd be tested every night.

Arkansas: This is really not the way to follow up losses to Top 10 teams. The Razorbacks were swept by the Mississippi schools, and there's no free wins for an Arkansas team that is still very inexperienced and definitely not used to this success. They have some chances to right the ship before their Jan 31st game vs LSU, where the Tigers will be hungry for a win.

Florida: Sure, it was Ole Miss and Auburn, but conference wins are conference wins, right? They’ve beaten all the teams they were supposed to (except @ Florida St., but I’ll give them a pass against a good rival on the road), but no marquee wins to speak of. They’ll probably get in based on sheer number of wins.

Bubble teams: LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi State

LSU: Not a good loss @ Alabama but at least held serve at home vs. South Carolina. Tough team to judge due to the lack of tests they’ve had. I’d like to think this team will end up in a similar position to Florida, but they stay on the bubble due to their best win being Washington State.

South Carolina: Win at Auburn and loss @ LSU is par for the course. Win over Baylor still looking strong. Gaudy record masks bad loss to Charleston. They still need to perform well in conference but the bid is there for the taking. Huge game coming up against a strugging Tennessee team on Saturday.

Kentucky: They were under the 8-ball early, losing to VMI, but got the big win they needed after demolishing Tennessee on the back of Jodie Meeks and his 54 points. The Wildcats have had their fair share of criticism over the course of this season but the next four games are all very winnable, and if they can take care of business at home vs. South Carolina and Mississippi State they'll probably be undefeated in SEC play when Florida comes to town on Feb. 10th. Amazing what one win can do for the team.

Mississippi State: For some odd reason, I had a feeling we'd hear from this team again. Win @ Arkansas at least puts the Bulldogs in the conversation. The resume isn't there at this point, but with Tennessee playing the way they are right now, the SEC is WIDE open and really, anything's winnable at this point.

Pac-10

It's looking like a 3 team race at this point. Two teams were expected, but Cal has crashed the party and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. Other than that... Arizona and USC are staying afloat but the water is rising and both teams need to keep the pace. Stanford is falling back to the bottom after an undefeated OOC season. Washington is attempting to make a tournament push but needs some quality conference wins. What does all this add up to? Probably 5 bids from the Pac 10.

In: UCLA, Arizona St., Cal

Top two competitors for the Pac-10 title remain locks. Cal moves into lock position after starting 4-0 in conference.

Should be in: No one.

Outside of the top 3, nobody's really separated themselves enough to get off the bubble.

Bubble teams: USC, Arizona, Stanford, Washington

USC: Expectations can only carry you so far. At this point, the Trojans need to start showing it on the court, and they missed out on a big opportunity by losing to UCLA at home. Their best wins are Georgia Tech and @ Oregon, which means they have some work to do. Handing Oregon St. their first conference win in over a year doesn’t help their case.

Arizona: Swept the Oregon schools to get back to .500 in conference play. They have some very good OOC wins (Gonzaga, Kansas) and I'd imagine they'd steal one from UCLA, Arizona St., and Cal at some point, but their inconsistencies could end up dooming them in the end.

Stanford: The Cardinal are now 1-3 in the Pac-10 after being swept by the Washingtons. .500 in Pac-10 play isn't going to be good enough, and now it looks like they may not even get that close.

Washington: Won over Stanford to stay alive on the bubble. There's still plenty of work to be done but it's a start. Loss to Cal in OT really hurts, as that was a type of win that bubble teams need to pull out. Two road games at Oregon and Oregon State before USC and UCLA come to town.

Other conferences:

The mid-major scene looks like normal… a few standouts, and a lot of question marks. The difficulty with many of these teams is judging them when they haven’t played anyone (like Illinois St. and Utah State), so we have to go on conference strength and performance. Remember most of these teams will win their conference’s auto bid, so their at-large status becomes moot.

In: Xavier, Butler, BYU, Gonzaga

Should be in: St. Mary’s, Memphis, UNLV, Dayton, Davidson

St. Mary's: Bad loss to UTEP can be overlooked due to sheer number of wins and number of good wins (Providence, @ Oregon, @ Kansas St., @ SIU). As long as they take care of business in the WCC they should be fine.

Memphis: Barely escaped Tulsa to stay perfect in C-USA play. They don’t have any real great wins (best is home v. Cincinnati) but all the losses are reasonable and they should win the C-USA which will be enough to get in.

Dayton: Loss @ UMass not a big red flag, but the Flyers could've really used that win. Still in line for 2nd in the A-10 which will be good enough. Loss @ Creighton still not good though.

Bubble teams: UNLV, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Creighton, Utah, San Diego State, Utah State, Houston

UNLV: Uh oh time. Losses to TCU and Colorado State put the Rebels in serious danger. Win @ Louisville still looks great but the losses in conference play are particularly disturbing since these aren't teams UNLV can afford to lose to. All these problems could go away Tuesday @ BYU, but there's no guarantee they'll beat Wyoming on Saturday.

Rhode Island: Loss at St. Joe's is not good, as that's a comparable bubble team. It’s hard to believe only two teams could make it from the Atlantic 10, but it could happen. Losses to Duke and Villanova are nothing to be upset about, and losses @ Providence and and Oklahoma St. aren’t awful, but there is a lack of good wins. If the Rams finish 3^rd in the conference and get a split against either Dayton or Xavier (or both), that should be enough for the committee to reluctantly let them in.

Illinois State: Loss to Indiana State not what the Redbirds needed. They'll probably need the MVC auto-bid to get in now.

Creighton: Their at-large status was already iffy heading into conference play. They're back on track in the Missouri Valley but it's not enough. They’ll likely need the MVC auto-bid.

Utah: The Utes have an extremely awful set of losses, including a loss to a Division 2 team. However, recent wins over Gonzaga and LSU have put them in at-large consideration. At this point, the resume is not good enough. But there are good wins to come by in the Mountain West, and this team is very capable of making a run and taking the regular season title.

San Diego State: Picked up the big win they needed over Utah and now have a very important game @ BYU next Saturday. If they can pull that off, I will be leading the charge to put this team in the tournament. Losses are all reasonable and relatively close, and a couple of wins over tournament teams is good enough for now.

Utah State: The WAC favorites fell to BYU on a neutral court but did beat fellow bubble member Utah. The OOC schedule probably isn’t strong enough for an at-large bid though.

Houston: I threw this team out early after losing to Georgia Southern but if teams like Utah and Kentucky can recover from bad early season losses then so can the Cougars. Currently 3-0 in C-USA and wins over UAB and UMass warrant some discussion. Memphis is beatable this year, and a split with them could draw some interest.

Games to Watch - Week of Jan. 12th

First things first... Wake Forest/UNC wasn't on TV at school, so I couldn't watch it. Honestly, I don't care if you're a Pacers fan or not, if you'd rather see a Golden State-Indiana NBA game than a game between 2 of the top 3 or 4 teams in the nation, well... you're crazy. But anyway, the fallout from that game is enormous. For the first time all year, I believe we have a legit reason to believe UNC is not the best team in the nation, and we have a legit reason to say Wake Forest IS the best team in the nation. Personally, I think this team's still too young to suggest they won't look awful in at least a few ACC games and lose, but who knows. Athletically they're capable of beating anyone in the nation, as shown on Sunday. Also, Pitt continues to roll, knocking off a decent St. John's team to stay undefeated. They'll be a difficult team to pick against come March because of their size and toughness at a variety of positions (and DeJuan Blair is an absolute beast). And my Boilers won a Big Ten game! All is right in the world. And on with the games...

Monday, Jan 12th

ND @ Louisville - And in this week's edition of top 25 Big East matchups, we have two of the most inconsistent teams in the conference. Louisville appears to be back on track after a couple of good conference wins, including a 1 point win over Villanova, but this is their first true conference test against an Irish team that can shoot you out of your own gym if you're not prepared. Luckily, ND has looked like a very average team on the road this year... I give the edge to the Cardinals.

Texas @ Oklahoma - Showdown of the two Big 12 and Final Four contenders. For Texas, Abrams has not been shooting well as of late, but Damion James and Gary Johnson have kept the Longhorns alive offensively in the meantime. Oklahoma's defense, especially on the perimeter, has been surprisingly good this year though, and Texas will likely need Abrams to get out of his scoring slump for the Longhorns to pull off a win on the road. Defensively, Texas will have to deal with Blake Griffin like everyone who plays the Sooners have to, but they also have to pay attention to freshman Willie Warren, who put up 35 in the Sooners' only loss of the season @ Arkansas and is a threat to score from a variety of spots on the floor. I have to stick with the home team here.

Tuesday, Jan 13th

Florida St. @ North Carolina St. - Important ACC game for both teams. Each started off with a loss in conference, and with teams like Maryland and BC already winning conference games and Miami seeming to get back on track, wins in the ACC are only going to become more difficult to come by.

Kansas St. @ Kansas - Neither of these teams are as good as last year's versions, but we all saw last year how much these teams hate each other. Should be a fun game to watch regardless of talent.

Kentucky @ Tennessee - The Wildcats NEED a good road win to stamp their resume with. This is the best opportunity they will get all year long, with the Vols recently coming off of a few losses. It's a very difficult task, but when you lose to VMI, you have to do something drastic to get yourself back into the discussion.

Wednesday, Jan 14th

Michigan St. @ Penn St. - Do not overlook the Nittany Lions. I repeat, do NOT overlook the Nittany Lions. I know from first hand experience. They've got 3 of the top 5 scorers in the Big Ten and are coming off of a big home win over Purdue. They are very capable of winning this game if the Spartans do not come prepared to play, and after watching the Spartans this year, there's no guarantees they will come to play.

Duke @ Georgia Tech - Same as above, but replace 3 with 1 (Gani Lawal). Actually, there really isn't a comparison. Duke better win big.

Syracuse @ Georgetown - Ho hum. Another top 10 matchup in the Big East. Seriously, these things happen like every 3 days. Syracuse is making a legit push to be a Final Four contender. This team's talented and balanced enough to do so. The biggest problem is a lack of size, but they rebound fine so it hasn't really hurt them. With Andy Rautins stepping up recently, this team's even more dangerous offensively. However, it's on the road, and this is probably the best halfcourt defense the Orange have seen all year long. I'm actually going to pick the road upset here. I really like this Orange team, and I think G-Town's depth is going to end up killing them in several Big East games this year.

Wake Forest @ Boston College - This is the ultimate trap game for the Demon Deacons. In fact, I bet so many people are calling this upset that I'm actually going to go against the grain and take Wake Forest.

Baylor @ Texas A&M - This is a time when the tournament outlook is supposed to get clearer. Not so in the Big 12. Both the Aggies and Missouri, who were supposed to be the at-large bids from the Big 12, lost their first Big 12 games, to Oklahoma St. and Nebraska, who were supposed to be on the outside looking in. That being said, this is a great chance for the Aggies to get back on track and get a very good conference win.

Maryland @ Miami (FL) - Important bubble game for both teams.

South Carolina @ LSU - This is one of those separation games in the SEC where we find out which teams are going to make legit tournament runs and which teams will settle for NIT bids. Both of these teams could use some good looking wins to bolster their resume with.

SIU @ Creighton - A little old-school Missouri Valley powerhouse matchup for ya.

Michigan @ Illinois - Seriously, the Big Ten's going to be a bloodbath this year. The conference champ could have 5 or 6 losses this year... it's that close. Any of the top 8 teams can beat any of the others... I fully believe that.

Thursday, Jan 15th

Purdue @ Northwestern - We better win. That's all I have to say about that.

UConn @ St. John's - Okay, the moment I started vouching for St. John's, they start to lose. I don't want this blog to become cursed. Come on, Red Storm. Get another good win for me.

Xavier @ Rhode Island - For the Rams, it's getting to the point where theyt absolutely NEED this win. Their best win so far is Penn St. at home... that's not going to cut it in the eyes of the committee. The brownie points gained from losing to Duke at Cameron by only 3 is only going to carry a team so far.

Minnesota @ Wisconsin - Another fun Big 10 matchup. A game where Wisconsin has to hold serve at home if they wish to make a serious Big Ten title run.

Santa Clara @ Gonzaga - The annual Gonzaga domination of the West Coast Conference begins.

Washington @ Oregon - It's thursday, which means Pac-10 night hoops. A good bubble matchup and a game both teams likely need to win to stay on the bubble. That means actually have a chance at making the tournament.

Arizona St. @ USC - Cal's made an early push, and you know UCLA will be there at the end. Both teams need to pick up a win to keep pace at the top of the Pac-10. In USC's case, they may be playing for their tournament lives soon if they can't get this one at home.

Arizona @ UCLA - Not saying Arizona's not in the tournament, but this, combined with the win over Gonzaga, would put to rest a lot of that talk. For a while anyway.

Friday, Jan 16th

A bunch of small conference games. Go party or something.

Saturday, Jan 17th

College b-ball day of reckoning. Check out this slate of games:

ND @ Syracuse - With all this talk about Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry for Player of the Year, Luke Harangody has quietly put up 24.5 points and 12.7 boards a game for the Irish. As for the team, this is the second of two critical road games in the Big East which could determine whether this team is going to compete for the Big East title this year or fall back into the middle of the pack.

Georgetown @ Duke - One of those games that won't have an impact on conference standing or tournament status (although it will affect seeding) but will still be a great game to watch. Duke has kind of become a top 2 team by default, but they haven't really beaten anyone since the pounding of Purdue at Mackey. I'm not sold on them being a Final Four contender this year, and if someone can expose their weakness in the post, it's Greg Monroe and the Hoyas. Speaking of Monroe, this guy's already a stud. I think he needs another year in college but if he comes back, he could be one of the frontrunners for player of the year next season.

Oklahoma @ Texas A&M - In case the Aggies don't get the first one vs. Baylor.

Wake Forest @ Clemson - Time to learn if the Tigers are for real. We know they're a good team. Can they reach that elite level? This is the perfect time to do so. Meanwhile, talk about a difficult week for the Demon Deacons to follow up their win over UNC... two very challenging road games against two teams they should beat but could easily lose to. On a side note, who would've honestly predicted this would be a matchup of top 10 teams way back in November when the season started?

Arizona St. @ UCLA - Unless Cal decides to spoil the party, this game and the one in mid-February could determine the Pac-10 champ.

Illinois @ Michigan St. - Gutcheck time for the Spartans. In a conference like the Big Ten, holding serve at home is a must, and this certainly isn't an easy game for the Spartans. Two games this week Michigan St. should and must win if they want to take the Big Ten title.

Texas @ Texas Tech - Good rivalry game and a game Pat Knight's squad needs to have if they want to make a tournament case.

Pitt @ Louisville - You could look at this in one of two ways if you're a Louisville fan. On the one hand, you're playing a couple of top ten teams in a week. On the other hand, you get to face two teams that are ahead of you in conference on your home floor. If you want to make an early, resounding push for the Big East title, this is the perfect opportunity to do so. Also, they have the athletes to compete with Pitt and win that game.

Cal @ Stanford - Battle of the Pac-10 overachievers. And it's a rivalry game. This should be good.

Ohio St. @ Michigan - Not quite the same on the basketball court, but at least both teams are good this year.

Marquette @ Providence - These are the kinds of games Marquette needs to win if they want to be taken seriously in the Big East.

Miami (FL) @ UNC - Doesn't really get much easier for the Tar Heels, does it?

And this isn't even factoring in important conference games between unranked teams that could all have bubble implications in March... Maryland-Florida St., Arkansas-Florida, Boston College-Virginia Tech, Temple-UMass, Kansas St.-Nebraska, South Carolina-Tennessee, Arizona-USC, UAB-Memphis, Wyoming-UNLV, etc... I love college basketball.

Sunday, January 18th

St. John's @ Villanova - Both teams REALLY need this game. I'm just going to leave it at that.

Iowa @ Purdue - We better win this game too.

Seton Hall @ UConn - Maybe after this game the Pirates will actually get a winnable conference game. And by winnable I'm talking about home vs. Providence which is still a toss-up. Sorry, Seton Hall. That's what you get when you play in the Big East.

Seattle @ PR Bayamon - The Seattle Redhawks are an independent D-I team. You know, most times Div. 1 independents take on schools from a particular conference in order to try and get invited into that conference. Check out who Seattle plays this week (I'm not making this up)

Tuesday: home vs. Linfield College
Saturday: @ Puerto Rico-Rio Piedras
Sunday: @ PR Bayamon

I don't know where those schools are, but you're flying from Seattle to Puerto Rico to play a game? Why? Just play the local YMCA if you want to do that. Guess that's why they're an independent.

Bubble Watch - Start of Conference Play Edition

Yay for being productive over break. Here's the first bubble watch of the year! Keep in mind a LOT can change in conference play and these are by no means set in stone. I tried to wait until putting a team in lock status as long as possible, so if the team is in the "should be in" category, they'd be in if the season ended today.

ACC

Lots of possibilities still abound for this conference. There’s 4 locks, but definitely room for 6 to get in. Could 7 make it? A few teams have some good-looking OOC wins and might be able to afford a bad record in conference play, but probably not.

In: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson

UNC, Duke, and Wake are locks. Clemson is a lock due to wins @ Miami (FL) and @ Illinois and lack of a loss.

Should be in: Miami (FL)

All three losses are to good teams (UConn, Ohio State without McClinton for much of the game, Clemson) but their best wins are @ Kentucky and @ St. John’s so there’s not much backing in terms of OOC wins. I’ll reserve lock status until they get some good wins in conference, but they should get those eventually.

Bubble teams: BC, Maryland, Florida St., NC St., VT

Boston College: Win @ UNC most likely puts them in the tournament at this point. As we’ve seen in the past, though, one win does not make a team, and a loss to Harvard is not the way to follow up a win over the #3 team in the nation. Also have that semi-ugly loss @ St. Louis. If they achieve a top 5 or top 6 finish in conference that might be enough, but the loss to Harvard has put the Eagles in some dangerous territory.

Maryland: Swept the Michigan schools. Only two losses are to Georgetown, which is looking much better, and Gonzaga, which is looking much worse. I think this will be much closer than it looks at the end of the season, just because of the competitiveness of the conference at the top, but there’s no reason to keep them out right now.

Florida St.: Lots of sort-of-good wins (Cincinnati, Cal, Florida, Texas Tech) but no defining win. Loss @ Northwestern could really hurt come March. There’s plenty of opportunities in the ACC to pick up defining wins but conference wins will be difficult to come by.

North Carolina St.: Lost out on a very good opportunity when they fell to Florida last Saturday. All three losses are to likely tournament teams (@ Davidson, Marquette, Florida) but those were the only quality teams on their OOC schedule so the Wolfpack are left without a decent win to speak of. @ Clemson on Saturday would be a good start.

Virginia Tech: @ St. John’s is the best win to speak of so far, but they missed out on every other OOC opportunity and must pick up a marquee win in conference to get in the dance.

Big Ten

Going into conference play, there were 7 teams you could make a legit argument for making the tournament. Someone has to be left out. Could it be the pre-season conference champs? Also, the Ohio St. case is shaping up to be very intriguing.

In: Wisconsin, Michigan St.

Nobody’s safe in this conference but I’ll say the two leaders are locks at this point. I think one of these two will take the conference.

Should be in: Purdue

Maybe I’m a little biased, but I find it VERY hard to believe this team won’t find a way to get back on track. But after watching them on Tuesday… who knows.

Bubble teams: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State

Illinois: Won @ Purdue for their best win so far. Other wins include Georgia and Kansas State (neutral). In other words, not a ton of great wins. The bright side is there’s little to criticize on their resume so far. As for the rest of these bubble teams, performance in conference will separate this school from the pack.

Michigan: Avoided a huge potential pitfall by barely escaping IU in OT. They have the best wins of any of these teams, including Duke and UCLA (neutral), but I’m still not sold on this team due to inconsistency (Savannah State took them to OT as well). They’re a good team but I have no reason to believe this team will consistently be better than the middle of the pack of the Big 10. Which isn’t a bad thing.

Minnesota: Same as Michigan, but without the great OOC wins (although beating Louisville helps a ton). Win over Ohio St. also big in terms of respect. Could they survive finishing below .500 in conference with the weak OOC schedule? Probably not.

Ohio State: This is the most interesting case. They’re currently on the bottom of this list but remember they’re losing all these games without Lighty. They’ll have him back for the tournament and the list of wins with him (@ Miami, Notre Dame) is pretty impressive. If they can pick up some good conference wins when he comes back, they might convince the committee enough to squeak in with a subpar conference record.

Big 12

5 teams are solidly in at this point. The Aggies are pushing to make it 6. After that, did anyone perform well enough out of conference to get in? I think any more than 6 will probably be a stretch.

In: OU, Texas, Kansas

OU and Texas are still locks. Kansas moves to lock status via their win over Tennessee, as they were only lacking a marquee win to put them in.

Should be in: Baylor, Missouri

Baylor is VERY close to being a lock but loss to South Carolina bumps them down just a bit. Missouri looked awful vs. Illinois but good wins over USC and Cal mean they should get in.

Bubble teams: Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., Nebraska, Kansas St.

Texas A&M: Good win over Arizona cancelled out by loss to Tulsa. Wins over Alabama and Miss St. help but won’t clinch anything for the Aggies. This team could go either way depending on how conference play turns out.

Oklahoma St.: This looks like an NIT team to me. Losses are understandable (although @ Washington is a stretch) but their best win is over Rhode Island and there’s plenty of teams better than them in this conference.

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers were looking good… until that loss to Maryland-Baltimore County. Not-so-pretty loss to Oregon State hurts too. This team is in need of some good conference wins.

Kansas St.: Good record masked by the fact that those three losses were to likely NIT teams (Kentucky, Oregon, Iowa). The Wildcats will likely be joining them there.

Big East

The biggest and best conference in the land will get at least 8 teams in. There isn’t a great option for a 9^th team but I’d find it hard to imagine someone won’t emerge in conference. Could they get 10? It’s unlikely, but if a team like Providence or St. John’s reels off a few upsets it could happen.

In: Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, ND

Top 4 teams are locks. ND win over Georgetown moves the Irish into lock status.

Should be in: Marquette, West Virginia, Louisville

Marquette: 2-0 in the Big East, and win over Wisconsin should be good enough for now. Losses are respectable (Dayton, Tennessee, both on neutral courts). This team will get enough good wins in conference to move into lock status in the near future.

West Virginia: Loss vs. Kentucky doesn’t look good, but the win @ Ohio State does. They were extremely competitive against UConn yesterday and that tells me they’ll grab an upset or two of the best teams in this conference, and that will be enough to get in.

Louisville: The Cardinals got a huge win over rival Kentucky to stop the skid. It might not be pretty at times, but they’ll do enough to grab a tournament bid.

Bubble teams: Providence, Villanova, St. John’s, Cincinnati

Providence: The OOC season wasn’t nice to the Friars, with a loss to Northeastern to begin the season and no marquee wins to speak of after missing on Baylor and St. Mary’s. Win over Rhode Island could be important for comparison purposes. The Big East season has started well and the Friars have beaten fellow bubble members St. John’s and Cincinnati, but it might not make up for the poor OOC schedule.

Villanova: Looking at the record and name, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t be a lock to get in. But look at the wins: Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s, Temple. They’d be in good shape if they played in the A-10. Right now Nova’s lacking that marquee win, and after getting taken to OT by Seton Hall, there’s nothing to suggest this team will turn it on and make a serious conference run. Just like the previous few years, Villanova could be on the bubble until the conference tournament.

St. John’s: Big win over ND puts the Red Storm on the radar. None of their losses are bad, but they lacked a good win until the ND game. Could they make a push to be the 10^th team in from the Big East? Their weak OOC schedule could be their downfall if they don’t finish in the top half of the conference.

Cincinnati: Loss to Providence put the Bearcats in dangerous territory. All their losses are reasonable, and I like this team overall, but it’s likely NIT for them. The win @ UNLV is a good win, but that’s about it, and there’s too many teams ahead of them in the Big East pecking order right now.

SEC

The weakest power conference in the nation just got stronger with a couple of huge Razorback upsets. Suddenly, this isn’t solely Tennessee’s conference anymore. Still, the conference is weak in the middle and bottom, so there are conference wins to be had for teams like Florida and LSU that could use some good wins. I would imagine 4 teams will find their way in from the SEC.

In: Tennessee, Arkansas

Tennessee is a lock. Arkansas moves to lock status after beating two legit top 10 teams in two weeks.

Should be in: Florida

Florida: They’ve beaten all the teams they were supposed to (except @ Florida St., but I’ll give them a pass against a good rival on the road), but no marquee wins to speak of. They’ll get in based on sheer number of wins, as they’re probably the third best team in the conference right now.

Bubble teams: LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky

LSU: Extremely weak OOC schedule, plus they lost to the only two legit teams they’ve played so far (Texas A&M, @ Utah). Tough team to judge due to the lack of tests they’ve had. I’d like to think this team will end up in a similar position to Florida, but they stay on the bubble due to their best win being Washington State.

South Carolina: Win over Baylor puts the Gamecocks on the map. Gaudy record and weak OOC schedule masks bad loss to Charleston. They still need to perform well in conference but the bid is there for the taking.

Kentucky: They were under the 8-ball early, losing to VMI, and haven’t really done anything to even get back on the bubble. That, combined with recent developments in the SEC suggesting this conference will be more difficult than initially anticipated, suggests this will be an NIT team.

Pac-10

The Pac-10 and Big 10 are difficult to judge because the teams are so close from top to bottom. Anywhere from 3 to 5 or 6 teams could get in. Judging by the other conference outlooks, I’d be surprised if less than 5 make it in, but Stanford is making a strong case for 6.

In: UCLA, Arizona St.

Top two competitors for the Pac-10 title remain locks.

Should be in: Cal

Cal: Oh so close to a lock after sweeping the Arizona schools. I’d like to see just one more good win to put them in lock status.

Bubble teams: USC, Arizona, Stanford, Washington

USC: Expectations can only carry you so far. At this point, the Trojans need to start showing it on the court, and they haven’t done it at this point. Their best wins are Georgia Tech and @ Oregon, which means they have some work to do. Handing Oregon St. their first conference win in over a year doesn’t help their case.

Arizona: Same thing for the Wildcats, who are now 0-2 in the Pac-10 after the losses to Cal and Stanford. At least they have some very good OOC wins (Gonzaga, Kansas) but their inconsistencies could end up dooming them in the end.

Stanford: After badly stumbling in their first real test of the season (Arizona St.) they picked up an important win over Arizona. If they get to .500 in conference, will that be enough? There is absolutely nothing to back them up in the non-conference due to a very weak OOC schedule, so I’m going with no.

Washington: Poor early season start may doom this team. Very important bubble game with Stanford looms on Thursday.

Other conferences:

The mid-major scene looks like normal… a few standouts, and a lot of question marks. The difficulty with many of these teams is judging them when they haven’t played anyone (like Illinois St. and Utah State), so we have to go on conference strength and performance. Remember most of these teams will win their conference’s auto bid, so their at-large status becomes moot.

In: Xavier, Butler, BYU, Gonzaga

Xavier and Butler are locks. Loss to Wake Forest doesn’t keep BYU out of lock status. Win @ Tennessee moves Gonzaga back into lock status and they should stay there for the remainder of the year unless something catastrophic happens.

Should be in: St. Mary’s, Memphis, UNLV, Dayton, Davidson

Bad loss to UTEP can be overlooked due to sheer number of wins and number of good wins (Providence, @ Oregon, @ Kansas St., @ SIU). Memphis doesn’t have any real great wins (best is home v. Cincinnati) but all the losses are reasonable and they should win the C-USA which will be enough to get in. UNLV win @ Louisville gets them off the bubble. Dayton has been holding solid ever since the loss @ Creighton and 2^nd in the A-10 will be good enough to get in. The four Davidson losses are all understandable and wins over WVU and NC State should be fine.

Bubble teams: Rhode Island, Illinois State, Creighton, Utah, San Diego State, Utah State

Rhode Island: It’s hard to believe only two teams could make it from the Atlantic 10, but everyone other than Rhode Island is around .500 at the moment. Losses to Duke and Villanova are nothing to be upset about, and losses @ Providence and and Oklahoma St. aren’t awful, but there is a lack of good wins. If the Rams finish 3^rd in the conference and get a split against either Dayton or Xavier (or both), that should be enough for the committee to reluctantly let them in.

Illinois State: The perfect season is over, and the schedule’s been very weak, but winning the MVC regular season title would hold some clout. A sweep of Creighton would look very nice too.

Creighton: Their at-large status was already iffy heading into conference play, but a weak start in conference hasn’t helped their cause one bit. They’ll likely need the MVC auto-bid.

Utah: The Utes have an extremely awful set of losses, including a loss to a Division 2 team. However, recent wins over Gonzaga and LSU have put them in at-large consideration. At this point, the resume is not good enough. But there are good wins to come by in the Mountain West, and this team is very capable of making a run and taking the regular season title.

San Diego State: No good wins but losses are all reasonable, and there are opportunities for good wins in the Mountain West. A couple of good wins and this team could get some at-large consideration.

Utah State: The WAC favorites fell to BYU on a neutral court but did beat fellow bubble member Utah. The OOC schedule probably isn’t strong enough for an at-large bid though.

College Basketball Recap - End of 2008

Happy New Year everybody! Hope you all had a great 2008, and here's to a very exciting year in sports in 2009. I know this season's shaping up to be pretty good, and already we've had some very good games to close out 2008, so let's take a look:

Monday, Dec. 29th

Georgetown beat UConn, 74-63

I watched a bit of this game in the 2nd half, so I missed the G-Town onslaught at the beginning, but I owe this Hoyas team an apology. They were ready for the task. I think this team actually looks BETTER than last year's team in terms of execution offensively and overall talent level. In the segment I watched, Greg Monroe barely did anything, but whether it was Austin Freeman taking it to the rim, or Jessie Sapp hitting a three, or Summers, or someone else, somebody seemed to step up and come up with a huge play. When UConn tried to claw their way back in it, G-Town simply would not let it happen. That being said, UConn was NOT ready to play this game, and take the first few minutes out of the equation and this was a pretty even ball game, maybe even leaning UConn's way, for most of the contest. Still, Thabeet needs to be more of an offensive presence inside IMO and take some of the pressure off of these guards. Also, I didn't think Adrien got nearly enough touches either. Give credit to G-Town though. This team is the real deal, especially defensively, and although they're extremely thin, this starting 5 can play with anyone.

Memphis beat Cincinnati, 60-45

You're not going to win too many games shooting 26% from the field. That's what the Bearcats did on Monday, and it pretty much doomed them. Other than Deonta Vaughn (17 points) absolutely nobody showed up offensively. As for their resume entering conference play, well... they have a win @ UNLV, which all of a sudden looked a LOT better after Wednesday's results, and win at home vs. UAB. Losses to Xavier and Florida St. (neutral court) are understandable (sort of). I think .500 in Big East play is probably neccessary to get in the dance.

Memphis wasn't pretty, but they got the job done. They still can not shoot from beyond the arc, and the roster isn't dynamic enough to make up for it against good defensive teams, but they stepped it up on D and got a good non-conference win. With the way UAB's looking, I'm not sure anyone's going to give the Tigers much of a challenge in the C-USA, although I feel like they'll lose to someone at some point. But their three losses are all reasonable, and I think they've done enough that with a C-USA title, they should get in barring any catastrophe in the C-USA tournament.

ALSO on Monday... Davidson squeaked one out over Charleston, 79-75, on the back of Stephen Curry and his 29 points and 9 assists. Villanova got a decent win over Temple, 62-45, and everyone else pretty much took care of business.

Tuesday, Dec. 30th

Illinois beat Purdue, 71-67 (OT)

Purdue - To those of you who heard my reaction after the game, I overreacted a bit. Okay, a lot. This team will be better than .500 in conference (although it's still concievable IMO, I think we'll figure out how to finish games sooner of later). The frustrating thing is this: we can't hit shots the entire game, we finally make a small run and get over the hump and take a small lead, then we give it back and our offense goes into the crapper. Seriously, we can't even execute a play. It just bogs down into one guy taking it in against 4 defenders and getting the snot beaten out of him. It doesn't work. And this happened in the Oklahoma game as well. The other frustrating thing is, I think if we look back on this later in the season, this was a game we NEEDED to have. It's a winnable game at home against a good, but by no means unbeatable team, and looking at this Big Ten schedule, we MUST defend our home court. And we failed to do that. Okay, the positives. We still played fairly well defensively. Our shots weren't falling all game but I thought we did a much better job of getting the ball to the rim, even if we couldn't finish. We sucked at free throws but that's never been a chronic problem for us. I've learned over the past few years that I'm a very emotional fan, and my emotions swing back and forth a ton. I can also be very pessimistic about our team. So from now on: no expectations about this team. We are who we are. We'll win some, we'll lose some, and while I think we won't win the Big Ten, I'm going to enjoy having a good team at my school. There. That's my schpiel. Anyway,

Illinois - This is a very well coached, very disciplined team that looks much more calm and confident than they did last year. They won't overwhelm you with athleticism or difficult matchups (although having a 7' 1" guy that can shoot really helps) but they execute their offense well and they get open shots. They weren't hitting a lot on Tuesday, or else they would've ran us out of our own gym. They didn't have any one guy that really impressed me, but they have a lot of guys that can hurt you. In fact, minus the overall talent level and athleticism, this team reminds me very much of the '05 team... lots of options, similar offensive style, stout defensively. This team will be a tough out in Big Ten play. Will they compete for the Big Ten title? I'm not sure yet. I'm still not completely convinced this team will be able to take down the big boys night in and night out. But the more I think about it, the more I'm leaning towards believing it could happen.

Arkansas beat Oklahoma, 96-88

Man, talk about an impressive win. Blake Griffin was "held" to 21 points and 13 rebounds, and 6 Razorbacks scored in double figures. They put up 96 on a team that I thought was pretty solid for the most part defensively in OU. So how do figure Arkansas into the equation? Well, for one, the SEC West is wide open, so this instantely makes them the favorites to win the division. It also gives me a legit reason to put in a second SEC team (yes, I said second... because beyond Tennessee the wins simply aren't there to justify putting anyone else in, although there will be eventually). As for OU, they'll be fine in conference, because Texas isn't going to run away from anybody, and Baylor has no one to match up with Griffin in the post.

ALSO on Tuesday... Syracuse went into triple figures on Seton Hall, 100-78. Yea... this whole 10th Big East thing? I don't see it happening. Clemson beat South Carolina, 98-87, despite 37 points from Devan Downey (who has to be one of the best players I've never heard of). Radford was beating Wake Forest early until the Demon Deacons shook off the cobwebs and obliterated them. And finally... San Diego got a legit win! Sure, it was Mississippi State, and it was overtimes, but still... baby steps here. Baby steps

Wed., Dec. 31st

Michigan St. beat Minnesota, 70-58

Minnesota suffers their first loss at the hands of the Spartans. I've been thinking about the Big Ten recently in terms of who will get in the NCAAs, and I have concluded the following: one of the teams that will be left out in the Big Ten will have at least one, possibly two, solid wins. Something like a home win over Wisconsin or Michigan State. Right now there's 7 teams you could make a case for to make the NCAAs, but 7 teams are not making it in. There's simply not enough wins to go around. Someone is going to get left out... and I'm guessing it's the Golden Gophers. Yes, they have a win v. Louisville (that win's looking worse as the days progress though) but other than that, there's simply nothing there. Their out of conference schedule is too weak to back them up and honestly, if they go 9-9 in conference or worse I could see them legitimately being left out. If they finish below .500 (which is what I think the 7th place team in the Big Ten will do) then they're definitely not getting in. Michigan State, on the other hand, appears to be slowly progressing to the form we all expected them to be in at the beginning of the season, and the conference schedule starts off relatively slow for them (no real tough road games until Jan 25th @ Ohio St). They could build some momentum early on and make a real run at the Big Ten title.

Wisconsin beat Michigan, 73-61

The AP called this an upset, but for us that follow college basketball, we know it's hardly an upset, as Wisconsin was very capable of winning this game. I like this team more and more every time I see them. Marcus Landry has taken over the role of go-to guy and seems to be handling the added pressure/defensive attention that comes with that very well. Trevon Hughes has stepped up, Jon Leuer has given them great minutes off the bench, and this team as a whole is a lot more skilled than I thought. In my opinion, this team is built to handle the daily grind of the Big Ten and they are my current pick to take the Big Ten title this year.

Michigan is a slightly different story. Actually, many of the things I said for Minnesota, you could say for Michigan as well. And yes, I understand this team has wins over UCLA and Duke but here's the thing: a mediocre conference record, maybe coupled with some bad losses, can erase those memories VERY quickly. I'm not saying this team should panic, because they're still good and 9-9 will probably be good enough to get in. But two good non-conference wins don't guarantee anything.

Couple of upset specials tonight as well.

UNLV beat Louisville, 56-55

Louisville is starting to lose that "Well, we're not great right now, but we will be, so put us in the tourney" tag. Take a look at what this team's done on the court. They pounded UAB in their house, but UAB might not even be a tournament team at this point. What's the next best win? Ole Miss? South Alabama? There really not much else there, and there's ZERO road wins because they haven't played a road game. I'm not saying this team's in danger of making the tournament, because they should and will get enough wins to get in. I'm just saying... time to be concerned. UNLV, though, is moving in the right direction. Add this win to their home win over Arizona a few weeks ago, and this team is probably dancing. Of course, splitting with BYU in conference wouldn't hurt either. But judging by the quality of at-large teams so far, I think the Rebels are safe at this point.

Utah beat Gonzaga, 66-65

The Zags are in free fall at this point. I can't possibly believe this team will get left out, because they have enough solid wins, like Tennessee, Maryland, Oklahoma State, but a couple of bad WCC losses and this thing could get ugly VERY quickly. Best take care of business, Gonzaga. Also, this team does play @ Tennessee next week, so if they want to put away any tournament debates, they can do that on Jan 7th.

We also need to start debating Utah's spot in the tournament. They're 8-5, which is as bad as any bubble team so far, and they have an ugly, ugly loss to a Division II team as well as losses to Idaho State and Utah State (but that one's not as bad as it looks), but they just picked up a marquee win of sorts over Gonzaga and they still have multiple shots at BYU and UNLV for big wins. As we've seen in the past, teams can put away bad non-conference resumes with good conference performances, so this thing's not set in stone by any means.

Most top 25 teams took care of business. The ones that didn't... Ohio State was neck and neck with Iowa until putting them away late 68-65. At home, that was not a game Ohio State could afford to lose. LSU squeaked by UL-Lafayette 80-78. They're not top 25 but that's still a game they had to win. Providence picked up a good win over St. John's (yes, I will stop talking about St. John's being a bubble team), ND handled DePaul 92-82 on Harangody's 26 points and 16 boards, and Pitt was down 18 at one point to Rutgers before clawing back into it and winning 78-72. Guess that shows that nobody is safe in the Big East, especially when you go on the road.

Games to Watch - Week of Dec. 29th

Mon., Dec. 29th

Georgetown @ UConn - So... rumor is the Hoyas are 9-1 and 9th in the polls. My two cents... outside of winning against a sloppy, overrated Memphis team, this Hoyas team has done little to justify that ranking. Not saying they're not any good... they share the ball well, they're a very good team defensively, and they're definitely playing better than I or anyone thought they would this early... but I think reality hits today.

Temple @ Villanova - We still know next to nothing about this Villanova team, because they really haven't been tested. We know they're not on Texas' level, but that's a top 10 team and we already sort of knew that. Cunningham's a stud, that's for sure, but Scotty Reynolds needs to play more like he did against St. Joe's and not like he did against the Longhorns. This team still has a lot of room to go either way. Meanwhile, ESPN was talking about the Atlantic 10 potentially getting 4 teams in... I don't see it. I could see three, but that's if Rhode Island establishes themselves as a clear #3 in the conference, which, if last year is any indication, is probably not going to happen. I'm going with Xavier, Dayton, and maybe someone else, but that's it.

Portland State @ Baylor - Don't laugh. With the Gonzaga win, the Vikings go from "good looking, gaudy record mid-major school" to "legitimate upset possibility". Beware, Baylor.

Cincinnati @ Memphis - Here's the perfect spot for the Bearcats to pick up a good out of conference win.

Davidson @ Charleston - If anyone's taking down Curry in the Southern this year, it's probably the Charleston Cougars. They're 10-1, with wins over South Carolina, TCU, and Winthrop. I know, not an impressive resume, but I didn't say this team was going to win or anything. Just that they'd probably give the Wildcats as good a game as anyone in the Southern this year.

Tues, Dec. 30th

UMass @ Houston - I don't know about you, but I have a feeling we could be seeing this matchup again in March... in the NIT.

Seton Hall @ Syracuse - The Big East is starting to get tighter at the bottom. Villanova's surviving at the moment, and West Virginia got a big win on Saturday over Ohio State to put them on the right side of the bubble for now. Still, that pack at the bottom - Nova, WVU, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, and even Providence - is still very much in the air at this moment, and likely the two or three teams that make runs in the Big East will grab tournament bids. Will the Pirates be one of those teams?

UAB @ Butler - Well, the Blazers had their shot to make a non-conference statement... again. And they fell flat on their face... again. Outside of a win @ Arizona (which is looking better) they don't have much, and that includes losses to Cincinnati and Boston College that could be absolutely critical come bubble time. Opportunity knocks for the Blazers again... will they respond this time?

Illinois @ Purdue - Time for my Boilers to put their money where their mouth is. The Big Ten's been way up this non-conference season, and Purdue, as one of the "expected" teams, has to be ready for the inevitable charge these teams are going to make. Illinois played us tight every time we saw them last year, and this year they're for real. My thoughts... if we can play the way we're capable of... good, stout defense, create turnovers, move the ball and get good shots on the offensive end... we should win this game. We showed exactly what we're capable of vs. Davidson and we can do that again, starting Tuesday.

Clemson @ South Carolina - NCAA spots are for the taking in the SEC. Nobody outside of Tennessee has really established themselves from the pack. The SEC East is probably the hardest of the two divisions but I can't really look at this schedule and say "At Florida? Well, chalk that one up in the loss column". There is definitely the possibility of 10-11 wins in the SEC for a majority of these teams, and the Gamecocks count as one of them.

Oklahoma @ Arkansas - What I said above, but substitute "Gamecocks" for "Razorbacks". And they play in the easier division.

San Diego @ Mississippi State - What I said above... again.

Wed, Dec. 31st

Michigan State @ Minnesota - Now the other Big Ten favorite gets their first major test of the season... on the road at a very capable Minnesota team. I think this Spartans team has turned the corner and is ready to compete for the Big Ten title, but this is certainly a game that can set them back to square one.

Wisconsin @ Michigan - Yes, legitimate middle of the road Big Ten battles that actually mean something! Welcome back, Big Ten conference, to the legit b-ball conferences of the land.

St. John's @ Providence - Important game for bubble considerations.

UNLV @ Louisville - You know those times where a team that was expected to do well early falls on their face a few times, then gets a very winnable game against a team at home and they pummel them?

OR

You know those times where a team who appears to be a NC contender early in the year falls on their face a few times, then you realize they're not actually that good and they start losing games against teams they really shouldn't be losing to?

Yea, which one is it?

Gonzaga @ Utah - Utah, make your at-large bid statement... starting NOW.

Wyoming @ Utah State - Fun late night b-ball out West.

Thurs, Jan 1st

Happy New Year!

Fairfield @ Siena - Good MAAC battle, for anyone who cares.

Villanova @ Marquette - Yes, this is what the Big East schedule looks like. Every frickin day. Fun, huh?

Stephen F. Austin @ Texas Tech - If you're looking at making the NCAA Tournament, this is one of those games that you really can't lose, but you could lose. You listening, Tech?

South Carolina @ Baylor - South Carolina will either be 9-3 after this week, or they'll be in my bracket. I can pretty much guarantee that.

Centenary @ Oral Roberts - who was the ESPN exec that felt this game should be televised on an ESPN station? Just curious.

Arizona @ Cal - Pac-10 hoops heat up this week. This game could be very important for Pac-10 seeding down the road.

Arizona State @ Stanford - Hah, Stanford! Your run of crappy teams ends here. Now, it's time to justify that undefeated record.

UCLA @ Oregon State - Here's hoping the Beavers get one this year in conference.

Sat, Jan 3rd

Pitt @ Georgetown - Only in the Big East would you get two top 3 teams in back-to-back games. Sorry, Hoyas. As for analysis, the same stuff I said for UConn v. G-Town would pretty much apply here as well. Pitt has not been significantly tested this year but does have wins over Texas Tech and Florida State. If they can get this one, they should be good until Jan. 17th when they visit Louisville.

Ohio State @ Minnesota - Looking on their schedule... I don't see any easy wins until late January. Although Penn State at home could be considered an easy win... man, the Big Ten really is a legit conference again. As for Ohio State, outside of a random game vs. Houston Baptist and two meetings with IU their conference schedule isn't a cake walk either.

Xavier @ Virginia - Hey, the Cavaliers won an ACC game! Sure, it was Georgia Tech... in OT... but still!

Lamar @ Memphis - No, this can't happen... wait, could it?

Tennessee @ Kansas - Seriously... take away "Kansas" and "2008 National Champs" from the equation, look at their resume, and tell me this is an at-large team. Lot closer than you think, isn't it? Maybe this game means more than seeding for the young Jayhawks.

ND @ St. John's - Seriously, I need to stop putting every semi-meaningful Big East game on here... it's going to consume this section.

Wake Forest @ BYU - Lost in the confusion of the conference season is this VERY good non-conference matchup. Do NOT count out BYU in this one. This team's for real.

Sun, Jan. 4th

Kentucky @ Louisville - The annual nobody-cares-anymore-that-Rick-Potino-used-to-coach-Kentucky-and-now-coaches-Louisville game.

Cincinnati @ Marquette - Ok, really Matt... I need to stop this.

Boston College @ UNC - There should be a new category the NCAA should consider for their tournament considerations. "Wins", "Losses", and "Good losses to North Carolina". It would really help in the decision making.

Virginia Tech @ Duke - Dick Vitale's head just exploded.

Arizona State @ Cal - The last of the two Arizona visits. This one will also be good for pecking order. Is there any reason you can't see Cal winning the Pac-10? I mean, I know this team's not great and all, but there's no clear favorite... tell you what. They beat Arizona and Arizona St. this week, we'll talk about it. Cool?

Drake @ SIU - Fun in the Missouri Valley.

Cal State Bakersfield @ Loyola Marymount - Seriously... LMU's beginning to enter NJIT territory (0-14 so far this season). You do NOT want to enter NJIT's domain. This team can out-lose anyone in the country. The Lions need to start winning some basketball games... like right now. Please. And tell Miss Valley St. to start winning too.

Games to Watch - Week of Dec. 22nd

Mon, Dec. 22nd

Marquette @ NC State - The Wolfpack have quietly amounted a 7-1 record so far, with their only loss a 5 point loss at Davidson. Not many people are tossing around their name for an at-large bid, and they'll probably struggle in ACC play, but here's a golden opportunity to put their names in the bubble mix... for now.

Georgia Tech @ USC - I saw Gani Lawal in the Penn St. ACC/Big 10 challenge game and he looked pretty good. He'll have his hands full vs. an athletic frontcourt that includes Taj Gibson, who is currently averaging over 3 blocks per game.

Tues, Dec. 23rd

Butler @ Xavier - The Musketeers fell from the list of unbeatens Saturday under a 55 point 1st half barrage by Duke. The Blue Devils will do that on occasion. Xavier isn't as bad as they looked against Duke, but they aren't great by any means, and you know an underated, hard-working Butler team will give them a game.

Missouri @ Illinois - Wow... a Missouri-Illinois game that actually means something for both teams! The Tigers have some good wins but could really use a good road non-conference win. Meanwhile, after missing out on beating Clemson at home a few weeks ago, this is Illinois' last chance at notching a good non-conference win in a conference that already has plenty of good looking non-conference resumes (Michigan, Minnesota).

Texas @ Wisconsin - If you like up-tempo, high scoring basketball games... don't turn this one on. It's probably not going to be pretty.

Kansas @ Arizona - This is the Desert Diamond Fiesta Bowl Classic. Basically a fancy name for a good non-conference matchup. As for the teams, I couldn't see Kansas not making the tournament... but right now there's not a whole lot backing them up on paper other than beating Washington at a neutral site. Meanwhile, Arizona followed up their big upset over Gonzaga with a loss @ UNLV... they've been awfully tough at home this year though, and this team does have a good deal of talent. Should be a close game

Wed, Dec. 24th and Thurs., Dec. 25th

Merry Christmas everyone! No college basketball. Enjoy presents, family, and college football. And I think there's NFL games or something.

Fri., Dec. 26th

Fairfield @ UConn - Only game on the schedule. Fairfield has a good record but has been blown out vs. the 3 legit teams they've played... and by legit I mean Missouri, Virginia Tech, and Memphis. Huskies... have fun!

Sat., Dec 27th

Washington St. @ LSU - Only Washington St.'s 2nd road game of the year. The Cougars don't have any bad losses (all to tournament teams, two to top 10 opponents Pitt and Gonzaga) but don't have any good wins either outside of Miss. St. This win would really, really help.

UAB @ Louisville - The more I look at the Blazers' resume, the more I think they're probably a tournament team... want to convince me? Win on Saturday. It's definitely possible... Louisville's looked pretty mortal so far, especially against teams that can handle the press (and UAB's set of guards definitely can)

West Virginia @ Ohio State - Lighty's out for 6 to 12 weeks. Saturday, we'll find out how the Buckeyes handle it.

Sun., Dec. 28th

Texas Tech @ Stanford - At this point in the season, there's two reasons you're undefeated:

1. You're really good.
2. You've had a sucky schedule.

Stanford's toughest game so far has been home vs. Air Force. They did play road games though... at Colorado State and at Yale. Come on now. Texas Tech will at least be a semi-tournament worthy opponent.