Okay, so conference play is almost over, and the conference tourneys are beginning. Speaking of which, we get to punch some tournament bids tonight! VMI takes on Radford at 4 PM for the Big South championship, E. Tennessee St. vs. Jacksonville at 6 PM for the A-Sun championship, Moorehead St. goes up against Austin Peay for the Ohio Valley championship at 8 PM. As for the big boys, here's my bubble outlook. First, the teams that are a lock to make the tourney:
Locks:
Xavier
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake
Florida St
Kansas
OU
Missouri
Texas
UConn
Louisville
Pitt
Marquette
Villanova
Syracuse
Michigan St.
Illinois
Purdue
Ohio St
Washington
Arizona St.
Cal
UCLA
Utah
BYU
These teams are in for all intents and purposes, and barring a major collapse, this should not shrink between now and tournament time. Bubble teams should root for these teams to win their conference tourney because if the tournament winners come from outside this pool, these teams will all get at-large bids and will take up one of the spots. 26 - 7 conference champs (assuming they all come from this group) = 19 at-large bids LOCKED UP
In addition, if these teams do not win their conference tourney they will get in as an at large:
LSU
Gonzaga
Memphis
Butler
Bubble teams need to root for these guys to win their conference because if not, they will take an at-large spot. That means there could be as many as 15 and as few as 11 at large spots available. Here's the teams I think have a somewhat legit shot at getting a bid:
Dayton
Rhode Island
BC
VT
Maryland
Miami
Oklahoma St.
Texas A&M
West Virginia
Providence
Penn St.
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
New Mexico
San Diego St.
UNLV
Arizona
South Carolina
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
St. Mary's
That's 23 teams. Also, if these teams do NOT win their conference tourney they'll be in the at-large pool on the bubble:
Siena
Davidson
Utah St.
Creighton
Bubble teams need to also root for these schools to win their conference tourney so there will be less teams on the bubble.
Here's a list of every bubble game being played today and my assessment of how bad the team needs the win:
Duquesne @ Dayton, 8 PM
Dayton, at this point, obviously can't afford another loss to a team outside the RPI top 100. In my book, Dayton's probably good at this point, but a win here and a few wins in the A-10 tourney would lock them up for sure.
UMass @ Rhode Island, 2 PM
URI needs all the wins they can get, including this one today. Some good play in the A-10 has put the Rams back on the bubble, but they really need to at least beat either Dayton or Xavier, which probably means get to the A-10 final. If they lost in the A-10 final to Xavier in a close game, would the committee put them in? It would require a few epic collapses by some bubble teams but after the losses on Upset Wednesday (that's my nickname for the Wednesdays of this season), I wouldn't completely dismiss it.
Georgia Tech @ BC, 12 PM
The Eagles can't afford another ugly loss to go along with Harvard and @ NC State. This win would at least put them above .500 in the ACC, which is good, and they have two major cards to play in wins @ UNC and Duke. As long as BC takes care of business here and in the tourney, they should be in.
Maryland @ Virginia, 3:30 PM
Another team struggling to stay above .500 in the ACC. If they can take care of business here, they'll get to .500, but how much will that help them? They're 4-9 vs. RPI top 50, which isn't bad, and they do have to North Carolina win and the Michigan State win way back in November. They also have an ugly loss to Morgan State as well. This is one of those teams I could see falling in the ACC quarters and getting left out, and then I have to hear Dickie V complain about why Maryland didn't make it in for the next 5 years (like he does about Virginia Tech last year).
NC State @ Miami, 12 PM
The U is out, for all intents and purposes, unless they have a big time ACC tourney run in them. Then again, this team did come within 7 points of sweeping Wake Forest, Duke, and UNC, so they could very well get it done. My opinion... I would NOT want to see McClinton on the floor against my Boilers anytime soon. Miami didn't take care of business in season, though, and maybe if even one of the OT losses (Virginia Tech, @ NC State, @ Duke) had gone their way, they'd be in a much better position right now.
Oklahoma St. @ OU, 3:30 PM
One of the biggest games of the day and a chance for the Cowboys to pretty much punch their ticket to the tournament. There's no guarantees, but with great computer rankings and some decent wins to back up their resume (6 straight Big 12 wins including one over Texas), a win over a top 5 team would probably be good enough to push them over the top. Take this one, win a game in the Big 12 quarters, and they're as good as in.
Missouri @ Texas A&M, 2 PM
Another one of those Big 12 teams that has a chance to put a stamp on their resume today. The Aggies also beat Texas and are also making a run on the back half of their conference slate, by far the easier half. They also don't have any bad losses. The thing that holds me back with them is, they didn't beat any of the teams they played on the earlier half. In fact, if this team played ND's schedule right now, wouldn't they be in the same position as the Irish? Would they not have lost every important Big East game they played and be off the bubble at the moment? But as it stands, a win here would put them at .500 in Big 12 play and another good win in the tourney could be enough.
Louisville @ West Virginia, 9 PM
A lack of a marquee win is holding me back from locking up the Mountaineers. This would count as a marquee win, but even if they don't get it West Virginia is still in good shape. A top 8 finish in the Big East means one bye and an easy 2nd round matchup, meaning they should be able to get to the quarters easily which should be plenty to get them in.
Providence
The Friars are done with their regular season. Providence is 10-8 in Big East play, but a lot of that was against the bottom half of the conference. Pitt and Syracuse are really the only two big wins they have to stand on. To make matters worse, they finished 8th in the Big East, so their quarterfinal matchup is probably going to be against UConn or Louisville, which will be difficult. This team reminds me of Villanova last year who was in a similar position. Nova got in, so that's good news for Providence. The tourney will probably make or break this team.
Penn St. @ Iowa, 2 PM
Contrary to other bubble teams, I feel like Penn State can afford a loss here... sort of. Beating the top 3 teams in your conference will do that. I know Iowa is awful, but to be honest, they've probably done enough to get in so far, and teams are bound to lose to bad teams in the conference tourneys. Okay, they probably can't afford it... but win here and they're probably locked up.
Michigan @ Minnesota, 12 PM
Many are saying this is an elimination game. I refuse to believe so, since both have very good out of conference wins and teams are bound to get upset today and in the conference, but let's look at it like that for fun anyway. Michigan arguably needs this win more, because they are currently below .500 in conference play, but Minnesota also doesn't have as many quality wins out of conference as Michigan, and when it comes down to it... conference record is just that: a record. Both teams are pretty even as far as conference play, so it could come down to this game... unless, or course, other teams fall apart, and remember, the majority of teams in this list are getting in.
New Mexico @ Wyoming, 3:30 PM
The Lobos are currently in a three way tie for first in the Mountain West. They split both of their meetings vs. the other two teams (BYU and Utah, both of whom are locked up in this projection), so the tiebreaker isn't settled there. In fact, I'm not sure how this is settled, so New Mexico would probably just be smart to win today. BYU plays Air Force, one of the lucky few teams that hasn't won a tournament game, and Utah gets TCU, also near the bottom of the conference, so New Mexico has the hardest game of anyone. As for resume, the MWC champion would hold a lot of clout in terms of at large notoriety, but for all the teams on the bubble right now in the MWC, the Lobos have the worst argument resume wise, with a couple of bad losses early on and no real non conference wins to speak of. Probably should win the conference tournament just to be safe.
UNLV @ San Diego St., 10 PM
UNLV has two big things going for them. One, they beat Louisville, which is one of the best wins of anyone on the bubble so far, and two, the conference tournament is on their floor, which always helps. Now for the bad news: The Rebels have some BAD losses in conference and need to win this one (which is no cakewalk by any means) to just get to 10 wins in conference. Outside of the Louisville win, they beat Arizona but that's about it. UNLV needs to win the conference tourney just to be safe, but if they don't, does their resume stack up against the power conference teams on the bubble? It's going to be close, that's for sure.
Stanford @ Arizona, 7:30 PM
Arizona badly needs this game, as the losses are beginning to pile up. Below .500 in the Pac-10 would be a major blow to their resume, but wins over Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington, and UCLA are really, really hard to ignore. Plenty of teams have gotten in on far less than that. Their inconsistency could be their downfall though. You look at losses like @ USC and @ Washington St. and you think, okay, those aren't that bad, but there's SO many of them... @ Texas A&M, home vs. UAB, @ UNLV, @ Stanford... these are all understandable losses but it shows how inconsistent Arizona has been over the course of the season. In any case, this win would keep them at .500 in conference play, and as long as they avoid 7th in the conference, they'll get a bye to the quarters and get a good matchup there... the door's open if the Wildcats want to take it.
South Carolina @ Georgia, 2 PM
To be honest, I'm not sure why the Gamecocks are getting so much attention. They can get to 10 wins with a win today, but that's not a great record in such a bad conference, and at this point they have zero RPI top 50 wins. If they can get to the SEC semis that might be enough, but I can't see a route to the tourney that doesn't involve beating Tennessee or LSU, which probably means SEC finals. Much of their resume has been built up on hype IMO.
Kentucky @ Florida, 2 PM
Now HERE's an elimination game, as I can almost guarantee you the loser of this one is done. But what about the winner? They'll be 9-7 in conference, but there really aren't any good wins to speak of for either team (West Virginia and sweeping Tennessee is pretty much all Kentucky has at this point, and Florida has Washington back in November when they were bad and South Carolina and that's it) and both have some awful losses in conference to boot. I can't really see either getting in without at least making the SEC finals or beating Tennessee or LSU.
St. Mary's
This is pretty much the most interesting case of the season. First off, they lost their best player, Patty Mills, for a good portion of the conference season and both Gonzaga games. In essence, that means with Patty Mills they essentially have one loss. BUT their best win with Mills in the lineup was Providence (N), which really isn't that great. They lost to UTEP (N), but that could be worse and let's face it... it's not as bad as a lot of these teams on the bubble. To confuse matters more, the Gaels actually have another regular season game left on Friday, March 13th (WCC conference play is over), and it's a makeup game against Eastern Washington that was supposed to take place earlier in the year. But that's after the WCC tourney finishes up, so will it actually have any effect on anything? Here's my assessment... they get a bye all the way to the WCC semis due to finishing 2nd in conference. Win that game, beat Gonzaga, you're in. Lose in the semis or lose to Gonzaga in the finals... I don't know. I think with Mills they're one of the 34 best at-large teams in the nation, but I have no evidence to back this up. Thankfully I'm not on the committee.
Tomorrow
VT @ Florida State, 2 PM
Huge game for the Hokies, as they would like to avoid a 7-9 conference record. Good wins are to be found on their resume, including Wake Forest and Clemson, but they didn't beat a few of the ACC bubble teams they're competing against. They're 3-7 vs. the RPI Top 50, but that's somewhat decieving, since that includes a win over Miami (who is not one of the 50 best teams in the game) and doesn't include a loss to Maryland (who probably isn't one of the 50 best teams, but they're in better shape than Miami). The Hokies still have some work to do.
Alabama @ Tennessee, 12 PM
I can't really see the Vols getting left out at this point, although they certainly shouldn't push their luck here. But with the amount of teams collapsing around them, an SEC East title, an 11-5 record in conference, and some good out of conference wins should be more than enough.
Indiana @ Wisconsin, 7 PM
Wisconsin, on the other hand, can't afford to lose at home to one of the worst power conference schools in the game. They didn't do much out of conference (besides beat Virginia Tech on the road... that could be the single most important bubble matchup of the season) and they had that horrible stretch in the Big Ten, but they recovered quickly and beat many of the teams they lost to earlier in the Big Ten slate. They also swept Michigan, which helps. The Badgers are in that logjam fighting for a first round bye, and they could really use it, because they haven't exactly been stellar against the bottom of the conference this year. A win in the Big Ten quarters would be huge.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Monday, February 2, 2009
Games to Watch - Week of Feb 2nd
Hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl last night... or at least the commercials anyway. The commercials were a bit of a letdown overall (is it just me, or does it feel like everyone's trying too hard with their Super Bowl commercial? Just find something funny and shoot it) but luckily the game wasn't. I personally would've liked to see Warner and Fitzgerald win a title, but I have nothing against the Steelers, who are probably the best overall francBlogger: Chi Town Balla's College B-Ball Central - Create Posthise in the NFL now. And now to college basketball... there's plenty of important games to get to this week, including a HUGE showdown in the Big East on Monday,
Mon, Feb. 2nd
UConn @ Louisville - Remember when we were questioning whether or not Louisville would make the tournament? Yea, not so much anymore. Safe to say winner of this game is in line for a #1 seed? Lousville's problems seem lightyears away considering the progress they've made in Big East play this year, and the Huskies should already be in line for a #1 seed. The biggest question for me in this game is: how will Earl Clark play on a big stage? He's been huge for them during Big East play but didn't contribute much in most of their big non-conference matchups. Also, how will the guard play of Louisville hold up against UConn's quick, deep backcourt? Should be fun to watch.
Kansas @ Baylor - The Jayhawks' first real Big 12 test comes tonight in Lubbock. Some say Kansas is the 2nd best team in the conference now... although Texas has fallen as of late, I'm still not ready to say that yet. I think someone other than Aldrich and Collins needs to step up as a consistent 3rd option on the team. Either way, Kansas has the firepower to handle Baylor's plethora of guards, and Baylor has had struggles of their own lately.
Tues, Feb. 3rd
Purdue @ Ohio St. - Another big road test for the Boilers. We've been playing very well lately, and with Michigan St. falling again at home, the Big Ten door is wide open. The Buckeyes have traditionally given us trouble at their place, and this team has not backed down after the loss of Lighty. Should be another tight game in the Big Ten.
South Carolina @ Florida - How big does that last-second layup look now? The Gamecocks are actually making an SEC run, and with the win over Baylor in their pockets, not only are they in line for a tournament bid, but it's not too farfetched to suggest they're the best team in the SEC. Florida could really, really use this game, not just to stay in the SEC race but to keep their bid safe as well.
San Diego St. @ UNLV - Both teams need all the wins they can get in a crowded Mountain West. Winner sits atop the MWC with Utah.
Wed, Feb. 4th
WVU @ Syracuse - Both teams have hit a bit of a rough patch recently and could use a win. Syracuse, especially, to stop the bleeding and save their tournament seed (sort of).
Wake Forest @ Miami - What started as a minor scratch has turned into a bloody mess for the Hurricanes. Back to back losses to NC State and Maryland put this team at 3-5 in the ACC and basically require this team to win one of their next three to stop the bleeding. Problem? Next three are this game, @ Duke, and UNC. If they lose all 3, Miami will have to win out just to get back to .500 in conference. Is their non-conference strong enough to survive a below .500 in conference finish? With just a win @ Kentucky to back them up, the answer is: highly unlikely. This is what happens when you don't win games you're supposed to.
Utah @ TCU - Important road game for the Utes to keep pace with whoever wins the Tuesday night game.
Villanova @ Providence - The Friars are 6-3 in conference play and now have a marquee win (Syracuse) to back it up. Here's another good home opportunity for a Providence team that's doing everything they can to erase the memory of a very sub-par non-conference slate.
Tennessee @ Arkansas - Must win for the Razorbacks?
Minnesota @ Michigan St. - Well, it doesn't get any easier for the Spartans. After losing at home to Northwestern and Penn St., it's safe to say teams aren't afraid to go to East Lansing anymore. Better bring your A game, because the Boilers are breathing down your necks in conference.
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma - The Aggies could really, really use a win to stand out right now.
Duke @ Clemson - The Tigers used a furious 2nd half comeback to come up with a humongous road win at Virginia Tech and now get Duke at home. Luckily, the Tigers took care of business already so this is more icing on the cake for them than anything.
Missouri @ Texas - The Longhorns could use this win to stop the bleeding. Not saying this team is going to fall apart or anything, but a few losses can begin to pile upon one another very quickly in college basketball.
USC @ UCLA - Important game in the Pac-10 standings.
Thurs, Feb 5th
Penn St. @ Michigan - Out of nowhere, the Nittany Lions begin to make a run in conference and are only one game out of first place midway through conference play. Well, if they want to run with the big boys, gotta get it done every night, and this is the kind of game that a team competing for a Big Ten title has to win. Meanwhile, the losses are beginning to add up for the Wolverines, and if they don't get back on track soon, the two wins over UCLA and Duke at the beginning of the year will be wasted.
Illinois @ Wisconsin - I don't think I need to tell you how badly Wisconsin needs this win.
Washington @ Cal - Yep, the honeymoon's over for the Cal Bears. Time to start winning basketball games again.
Arizona St. @ Oregon - Okay, you don't have to make a big deal of this, Arizona St. We know you lost a couple of games you shouldn't have. Just put away the 0-9 team quietly and nobody gets hurt.
Gonzaga @ Portland - So I lied. Maybe you want to watch this WCC game too.
Fri, Feb. 6th
Marquette @ South Florida - So South Florida's actually given teams some good games in the Big East this year. This one should be a blowout, but still...
Sat, Feb. 7th
Cincinnati @ Georgetown - The Hoyas had better win this game. Or else we've got problems. As if we didn't have any already.
Syracuse @ Villanova - This has pretty much become commonplace in the Big East this year. A ranked matchup. It's like they don't even matter anymore... well, they do, but you get the idea.
Miami @ Duke - Game two of the three game stretch from hell for the U.
ND @ UCLA - You have a must win game on the road vs. a top 15 opponent? Sucks to be you, ND!
Michigan @ UConn - Another big time non-conference matchup for the Wolverines. Not coming at the greatest of times for them, but you gotta take them how you get them.
Florida St. @ Clemson - Important game for the Seminoles if they want to be taken seriously as a tournament contender.
Minnesota @ Ohio St. - After Patty Mills' injury, Ohio St. is no longer the most interesting bubble case due to injury. That, and Ohio St.'s probably playing well enough without Lighty that it won't matter.
Arizona St. @ Oregon St. - The fact that this is actually going to be a competitive game shows how far the Beavers' program has come in one year.
Memphis @ Gonzaga - A good non-conference matchup for two teams that could use some tournament competition late in their seasons. Because they're not going to get it from their conferences.
Sunday, Feb. 8th
Purdue @ Illinois - The end of our big road stretch, and probably the most important game. I really don't want to get swept by the Illini and have that waiting behind us in the Big Ten standings. The good thing is, we probably should have won the game at home, and that was without our best defender (Kramer). One defender won't make as big a difference against Illinois as it would against other teams, because they spread the ball so well, but I also think we're a much different team offensively from first Illinois game. I think we're up to the challenge.
BC @ Wake Forest - I keep going back and forth on this Boston College team. They beat UNC, but lost to Harvard, but now they're 5-3 in ACC play, but it's been mostly against ACC bottom-feeders, etc. I think they'll be right on the bubble by the end of the season. Of course, that is unless they win this game.
Washington @ Stanford - Another bubble team barely hanging on and in desperate need of a win. Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that I'm not refering to Washington?
Mon, Feb. 2nd
UConn @ Louisville - Remember when we were questioning whether or not Louisville would make the tournament? Yea, not so much anymore. Safe to say winner of this game is in line for a #1 seed? Lousville's problems seem lightyears away considering the progress they've made in Big East play this year, and the Huskies should already be in line for a #1 seed. The biggest question for me in this game is: how will Earl Clark play on a big stage? He's been huge for them during Big East play but didn't contribute much in most of their big non-conference matchups. Also, how will the guard play of Louisville hold up against UConn's quick, deep backcourt? Should be fun to watch.
Kansas @ Baylor - The Jayhawks' first real Big 12 test comes tonight in Lubbock. Some say Kansas is the 2nd best team in the conference now... although Texas has fallen as of late, I'm still not ready to say that yet. I think someone other than Aldrich and Collins needs to step up as a consistent 3rd option on the team. Either way, Kansas has the firepower to handle Baylor's plethora of guards, and Baylor has had struggles of their own lately.
Tues, Feb. 3rd
Purdue @ Ohio St. - Another big road test for the Boilers. We've been playing very well lately, and with Michigan St. falling again at home, the Big Ten door is wide open. The Buckeyes have traditionally given us trouble at their place, and this team has not backed down after the loss of Lighty. Should be another tight game in the Big Ten.
South Carolina @ Florida - How big does that last-second layup look now? The Gamecocks are actually making an SEC run, and with the win over Baylor in their pockets, not only are they in line for a tournament bid, but it's not too farfetched to suggest they're the best team in the SEC. Florida could really, really use this game, not just to stay in the SEC race but to keep their bid safe as well.
San Diego St. @ UNLV - Both teams need all the wins they can get in a crowded Mountain West. Winner sits atop the MWC with Utah.
Wed, Feb. 4th
WVU @ Syracuse - Both teams have hit a bit of a rough patch recently and could use a win. Syracuse, especially, to stop the bleeding and save their tournament seed (sort of).
Wake Forest @ Miami - What started as a minor scratch has turned into a bloody mess for the Hurricanes. Back to back losses to NC State and Maryland put this team at 3-5 in the ACC and basically require this team to win one of their next three to stop the bleeding. Problem? Next three are this game, @ Duke, and UNC. If they lose all 3, Miami will have to win out just to get back to .500 in conference. Is their non-conference strong enough to survive a below .500 in conference finish? With just a win @ Kentucky to back them up, the answer is: highly unlikely. This is what happens when you don't win games you're supposed to.
Utah @ TCU - Important road game for the Utes to keep pace with whoever wins the Tuesday night game.
Villanova @ Providence - The Friars are 6-3 in conference play and now have a marquee win (Syracuse) to back it up. Here's another good home opportunity for a Providence team that's doing everything they can to erase the memory of a very sub-par non-conference slate.
Tennessee @ Arkansas - Must win for the Razorbacks?
Minnesota @ Michigan St. - Well, it doesn't get any easier for the Spartans. After losing at home to Northwestern and Penn St., it's safe to say teams aren't afraid to go to East Lansing anymore. Better bring your A game, because the Boilers are breathing down your necks in conference.
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma - The Aggies could really, really use a win to stand out right now.
Duke @ Clemson - The Tigers used a furious 2nd half comeback to come up with a humongous road win at Virginia Tech and now get Duke at home. Luckily, the Tigers took care of business already so this is more icing on the cake for them than anything.
Missouri @ Texas - The Longhorns could use this win to stop the bleeding. Not saying this team is going to fall apart or anything, but a few losses can begin to pile upon one another very quickly in college basketball.
USC @ UCLA - Important game in the Pac-10 standings.
Thurs, Feb 5th
Penn St. @ Michigan - Out of nowhere, the Nittany Lions begin to make a run in conference and are only one game out of first place midway through conference play. Well, if they want to run with the big boys, gotta get it done every night, and this is the kind of game that a team competing for a Big Ten title has to win. Meanwhile, the losses are beginning to add up for the Wolverines, and if they don't get back on track soon, the two wins over UCLA and Duke at the beginning of the year will be wasted.
Illinois @ Wisconsin - I don't think I need to tell you how badly Wisconsin needs this win.
Washington @ Cal - Yep, the honeymoon's over for the Cal Bears. Time to start winning basketball games again.
Arizona St. @ Oregon - Okay, you don't have to make a big deal of this, Arizona St. We know you lost a couple of games you shouldn't have. Just put away the 0-9 team quietly and nobody gets hurt.
Gonzaga @ Portland - So I lied. Maybe you want to watch this WCC game too.
Fri, Feb. 6th
Marquette @ South Florida - So South Florida's actually given teams some good games in the Big East this year. This one should be a blowout, but still...
Sat, Feb. 7th
Cincinnati @ Georgetown - The Hoyas had better win this game. Or else we've got problems. As if we didn't have any already.
Syracuse @ Villanova - This has pretty much become commonplace in the Big East this year. A ranked matchup. It's like they don't even matter anymore... well, they do, but you get the idea.
Miami @ Duke - Game two of the three game stretch from hell for the U.
ND @ UCLA - You have a must win game on the road vs. a top 15 opponent? Sucks to be you, ND!
Michigan @ UConn - Another big time non-conference matchup for the Wolverines. Not coming at the greatest of times for them, but you gotta take them how you get them.
Florida St. @ Clemson - Important game for the Seminoles if they want to be taken seriously as a tournament contender.
Minnesota @ Ohio St. - After Patty Mills' injury, Ohio St. is no longer the most interesting bubble case due to injury. That, and Ohio St.'s probably playing well enough without Lighty that it won't matter.
Arizona St. @ Oregon St. - The fact that this is actually going to be a competitive game shows how far the Beavers' program has come in one year.
Memphis @ Gonzaga - A good non-conference matchup for two teams that could use some tournament competition late in their seasons. Because they're not going to get it from their conferences.
Sunday, Feb. 8th
Purdue @ Illinois - The end of our big road stretch, and probably the most important game. I really don't want to get swept by the Illini and have that waiting behind us in the Big Ten standings. The good thing is, we probably should have won the game at home, and that was without our best defender (Kramer). One defender won't make as big a difference against Illinois as it would against other teams, because they spread the ball so well, but I also think we're a much different team offensively from first Illinois game. I think we're up to the challenge.
BC @ Wake Forest - I keep going back and forth on this Boston College team. They beat UNC, but lost to Harvard, but now they're 5-3 in ACC play, but it's been mostly against ACC bottom-feeders, etc. I think they'll be right on the bubble by the end of the season. Of course, that is unless they win this game.
Washington @ Stanford - Another bubble team barely hanging on and in desperate need of a win. Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that I'm not refering to Washington?
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Games to Watch - Week of Jan 26th
Monday, Jan 26th
Marquette @ ND - Things are starting to go from "Well, we're not the greatest of teams, but we'll get a decent tournament seed anyway" to "We're not in any real danger of missing the tourney, but it would be nice to get a good win in every once in a while" for the Irish. Here's a good opportunity against a Marquette team that is somewhat unproven in conference and doesn't have anyone to adequately match up with Harangody. And it would be advisable for ND to stay above .500 in conference play as much as possible.
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St. - The Sooners are really starting to look like a dominant team, to the point where they could compete for a National Championship should things go their way. We all know what Blake Griffin can do, but it's been the emergence of Willie Warren and, over the past few weeks, Austin Johnson, which has carried this team to the level they're at. Meanwhile, the Cowboys survived a must-win over Nebraska in OT and will be hungry and desperate for a good win. A & M was in a similar position a week ago against OU and the Sooners prevailed. Will it be the same this time?
Cal St. Bakersfield @ Oregon St. - This is mainly my way of giving a shout-out to the Beavers, who won back-to-back conference games last week and actually look like a somewhat difficult matchup for Pac-10 teams now. Considering where they were a year ago, this is a very good step.
Tuesday, Jan 27th
Miami (Fl) @ NC State - Miami can use all the conference wins they can get right now. NC State can use all the wins they can get, period.
BC @ Maryland - What happens when you pick up one big-time win but fail to get anything else worth considering on your tournament resume. Fair to say loser is done?
Texas @ Baylor - Well, I would hope the Bears have some pride and make a game out of this after getting embarrassed vs. OU. I understand OU's got Griffin and he's going to tear you up inside, but come on... at least UAB made a game out of it in a similar position. Either way, this should be an easier matchup for Baylor and it's at home.
Purdue @ Wisconsin - This game scares me because Wisconsin is always tough at home and this team will be VERY desperate for a win. The Badgers are a buzzer beater at Virginia Tech away from having absolutely nothing on their tournament profile, and now that they're below .500 in conference play, their tournament bid is looking really, really shaky right now.
BYU @ Utah - The Utes were up 8 @ UNLV but fell apart in the 2nd half and lost by 10. That was a win they really could have used, but for now they'll have to move on to play the preseason conference favorites, who have slipped up a few times in early MWC play. Despite their loss to UNLV, this conference is still anyone's race and the MWC regular season championship is likely good enough for an at-large bid. Should be some interesting basketball out west.
Wednesday, Jan 28th
Michigan @ Ohio St. - I understand it's a football rivalry, but it's a shame these teams are done playing each other by late January. Either way, the home team prevailed last time (Michigan) so Ohio State will be looking to take out two birds with one stone by picking up a good conference win and defending their home turf. And beating a rival. So three birds with one stone. Not bad
Duke @ Wake Forest - So much for a #1 vs. #2 matchup. Whatever. Anyway, Virginia Tech gave Wake fits offensively and defensively in the 2nd half of that game on Wednesday, and Duke has the tools to do the same to the Deacs this Wednesday. Maybe if Wake realizes Duke has no interior presence on either side of the ball, their offense will be more consistent. I still like Duke in this matchup though. This is the most athletic, experienced team Duke has had in a few years and they'll take it to the youngsters.
Pitt @ Villanova - Maybe this week voters will realize Nova shouldn't just be in the polls by default and should actually get a good win or two before being ranked.
Temple @ Rhode Island - This could be a matchup between the 3rd and 4th best teams in the A-10. Yea... they're getting two in this year max
Syracuse @ Providence - How about a Friars upset to throw some real chaos into the bubble picture? Such a weak non-conference resume, but how can you ignore 6-2 in the Big East right now? Should be interesting to watch.
LSU @ Tennessee - The Tigers are a very interesting case. They could go 24-7 and not make the tournament. Yea, 12-4 in the SEC should be good enough, but there's NOTHING on the non-conference end after falling short to Xavier. And if they don't get wins like this, what are they going to have to back up that lofty record? Meanwhile, Tennessee's seed is plummeting faster than anyone else's in the country right now and they really could use a good home win to get back on track.
UNC @ Florida St. - After Virginia Tech's emergence, the Seminoles have some competition for the 6th spot in the ACC... and there may not be room for 7 (although with the way the bubble's looking right now, there could be). This is a tough one to get, but after your competition wins back-to-back games against ranked opponents on the road, you have to do something to look good.
TCU @ San Diego St. - More MWC fun. Because anyone could win that conference right now.
Thursday, Jan 29th
Clemson @ Virginia Tech - Speaking of the Hokies... how about we make it 3 for 3?
Washington @ Arizona - Wait, the Huskies are the ones in prime position for the NCAAs? And the Wildcats are the ones falling apart in conference? Are you sure that's right?
Washington St. @ Arizona St. - If only because watching the end of the UCLA-Washington St. game was as much fun as I've had watching an underdog try to take down a big name school in a while. They are passionate for their basketball up in Washington. Too bad this one's on the road
Illinois @ Minnesota - Disaster avoided when Minnesota barely escaped IU with a victory. Now the Illini come to town, and they're playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now. A win would do well to keep Minnesota afloat on the bubble for the time being.
Alabama @ Arkansas - Still waiting for that first Razorback SEC win... and waiting...
San Diego @ Portland - Ah, my trendy mid-major pick of the year... you have disappointed me so... no respect shall be given to you on this blog. In fact, I'm rooting for Portland. What now, Toreros?
Cal @ UCLA - Will the real Cal please stand up? Is it the ones who started off on a tear in the beginning of Pac-10 season? Or the mediocre bubble team that's played the rest of the year? I would really like to know.
Stanford @ USC - Speaking of teams with gaudy records that probably won't get in the tournament... yes, I'm looking at you, Stanford. Maybe you should start beating teams like Oregon State (and yes, I did applaud and insult Oregon State in the same blog post. Here's how I reconcile it: what the Beavers did was great. But in the end, tournament teams should still beat them. Simple as that)
St. Mary's @ Gonzaga - One of only two WCC games you need to care about. The other being Gonzaga @ St. Mary's
Friday, January 30th
Valparaiso @ Butler - How about it? The Bulldogs have flown basically under the radar to an 18-1 record and continue to dominate the Horizon League (and picked up a win over fellow mid-major Xavier). Wasn't this supposed to be a down year for them too? So much for that
West Virginia @ Louisville - The Cardinals look to keep it perfect in the Big East with a win on Saturday. And unlike some other undefeated Big East teams (cough Marquette cough) they've actually beaten some decent opponents.
ND @ Pitt - The Irish just finished a three game stretch against 3 of the top 15 teams in the nation, two on the road. What do they get for their troubles? Another four games that include 3 more top 15 teams, including Louisville again. There is no mercy in the Big East.
Michigan @ Purdue - Michigan is one of the more difficult teams to figure out due to the strength of their wins (UCLA, Duke) and the weakness of some of their losses (@ Maryland, @ Penn St., down by 20 at one point @ IU). All in all, this team seems to be shaping up as an interesting bubble case and could really use a win on Saturday. Then again, so could my Boilers, who are looking to keep pace with Michigan St. in the Big Ten title race.
Oklahoma St. @ Texas A&M - The Aggies need this win like no other right now.
Georgetown @ Marquette - Well, this is certainly shaping up to be a marquee day for the Big East, isn't it? Time for the Golden Eagles to put their money where their mouth... er, record, is.
South Carolina @ Kentucky - It's not a good thing if you're a power conference and your conference leader, the only undefeated team in conference play, lost to VMI.
Stanford @ UCLA - The Cardinal are beginning to pay for their weak non-conference schedule. You gotta take advantage of the opportunities you get when you go that route... and with so few of those opportunities, you can't be picky.
UNC @ NC State - This has to be somewhat fierce of a rivalry, right? And NC State technically is still alive as a bubble team, right? Maybe that one was pushing it too far.
New Mexico @ Utah - Because anyone can win that conference right now. And yes, I know I used that argument earlier in the post. But when over half the teams in the conference have a share of first, really, ANYONE can win the conference.
Providence @ UConn - Big week for the Friars, with two shots at marquee wins. Get one of them and we're talking.
UNLV @ Air Force - Because anyone can win... well, not Air Force. But you get the point.
Arkansas @ LSU - The sad thing is, the winner of the SEC West might not even get a tournament bid. I'm still amazed at the mediocrity of this conference. At least last year teams like Miss St. emerged and made a run. I'm not sure any of these teams are going to do it this year.
Washington @ Arizona St. - The Huskies can make it a clean sweep of the Pac-10 title contenders. And establish themselves as a contender, if they haven't already.
Baylor @ Missouri - Important game for both teams to add more insurance to what is likely tournament bids for both school.
Virginia Tech @ BC - The Eagles need wins, and need them fast. Luckily for them, Virginia Tech just became a legitimate victory, so here's a chance handed to the Eagles on their doorstep. I'd take it if I were them.
Miami (Fl) @ Maryland - Ditto for both of these teams.
Florida @ Tennessee - Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2008-2009 SEC representatives in the NCAA Tournament!
Cal @ USC - Because you need something to do at 11:30 PM at night, seeing as it's uber-lame to go to bed at 11:30 on a Saturday night. Or something like that
Sunday, Feb. 1st
Penn St. @ Michigan St. - The Nittany Lions are currently over .500 in the Big Ten. Their non-conference resume isn't special, but they've got some decent conference wins. The profile would look just a bit stronger if they found a way to get this one done.
St. Joseph's @ Dayton - Important game for St. Joe's to gain national respect and for Dayton to retain it.
Boise St. @ Houston Baptist - Only because Gordon Watt, who is leading Houston Baptist at 17.6 pts per game, used to play for Purdue. That's all I got, sorry.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Bubble Watch - Jan 23rd
The undefeateds are no more. Wake Forest fell Wednesday at the hands of Virginia Tech, 78-71, meaning there are no longer any undefeated teams in the country. Was I surprised the young Deacs lost? No. Was I surprise it was to an unranked team notorious for blowing late leads over the past few years (Virginia Tech)? Yes, and while the Hokies still have plenty of work to do in ACC play, they got the marquee win they desperately needed, and on the road to boot.
Anyway, there's still plenty of question marks, and new teams like Northwestern and Virginia Tech that could make some bubble noise, but some conferences are beginning to clear up, like the Big East. Then again, others, like the Big Ten, only get more confusing. Here's your outlook:
ACC
The top 5 continue to do what needs to be done to lock up tournament bids. Clemson took two hits in a week but remain in the lock category due to the fact that they were both top 10 teams. Miami (Fl) can't quite break into the lock category yet but continues to win games they should win. Will 6 get in? Virginia Tech is 3-1 in conference but had probably the worst non-conference resume of all the bubble teams. The rest are floating around .500. I'm guessing, like last year, they'll beat up on each other too much for any of them to make a serious tournament run.
In: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
Should be in: Miami (FL)
Miami (Fl): The U was unable to pull off the upset in Chapel Hill but held off Florida St at home for an important bubble win. Good wins @ BC and Maryland mean the Canes would definitely be in at this point. I'll still hold off lock status due to lack of a marquee win. All four losses are to good teams (UConn, Ohio State without McClinton for much of the game, Clemson, UNC) but their best wins are @ Kentucky and @ St. John’s so there’s not much backing in terms of OOC wins. Virginia Tech comes into town on Sunday, fresh off an upset of the #1 team and hungry for some good conference wins, so that will not be an easy game by any means. They get Wake at home on February 4th if they want that marquee win.
Bubble teams: Florida St., VT, BC, Maryland, NC State
Florida St.: The biggest thing to happen to the Seminoles this week didn't even involve the team. Northwestern's recent upset streak now makes their loss to them seem completely reasonable. @ Miami (Fl) would've really helped boost their profile. Win over Maryland very important in terms of bubble order. Lots of sort-of-good wins (Cincinnati, Cal, Florida, Texas Tech) but no defining win. UNC comes to town next Wednesday and a win there would be big. I'd actually put this team next in the pecking order after Miami (Fl) but will that be enough to get in?
Virginia Tech: Huge, huge road victory over the #1 team in the nation puts the Hokies back in the discussion. They're 3-1 in conference right now and have another big road test @ Miami (Fl) on Sunday. Beat Virginia and Richmond but neither are the types of wins VT needs at this point. @ St. John’s is the best win to speak of so far, but they missed out on every other OOC opportunity. I still think this team is a few good wins away from seriously being in the tournament discussion but as of this point they have a legit argument for being the 6th best team in the ACC.
Boston College: Going 1-4 (with the only win being over conference bottom dweller Georgia Tech in OT) is not a good way to follow up the upset over UNC. While the loss to Harvard is particularly painful, they missed out on some chances to get additional good wins at home, which could come back to haunt them. Win @ UNC is all this team has right now. Also have that semi-ugly loss @ St. Louis. Important bubble games with NC State, Maryland, and Virginia Tech are big in the next two weeks if BC wants to get some conference separation.
Maryland: Lost what would've been a huge win @ Florida St. but at least held serve at home over Virginia. Swept the Michigan schools, But the loss to Marist really hurts. Sunday afternoon game @ Duke is a great place to make a conference statement, because the Terps really aren't doing much of anything right now.
North Carolina St.: They led Duke at the half but Henderson was too much for the Wolfpack and they fell to 1-3 in conference. All OOC losses are to likely tournament teams (@ Davidson, Marquette, Florida) but those were the only quality teams on their OOC schedule so the Wolfpack are left without a decent win to speak of. Any conference win would be good at this point since they're on the bottom of the ACC pecking order at the moment.
Big Ten
Confusion, thy name is Big Ten. The 9th and 10th place teams in the conference pulled off upsets Wednesday to wreak havoc on the conference. The Big Ten title is back up for grabs after Michigan State lost to Northwestern but it's not enough to take them off of lock status (although I will be keeping my eye on this team...). Wisconsin in particular is really struggling and in this conference, a few upsets could mean the difference between 3rd or 4th in the Big Ten and out of the tournament
In: Michigan St.
Should be in: Purdue, Illinois
Purdue: Road win over Minnesota solidifies the Boilers as a legit Big Ten title threat again and in turn makes them a very good bet for the tournament. Not a lock yet due to the difficulty of the upcoming schedule (@ Wisconsin, Michigan, @ Ohio State, @ Illinois) but 3 out of 4 of those should seal it for now.
Illinois: Okay, I believe it. This team's not going away anytime soon. Near miss @ Michigan St. and win over Ohio St. shows me the Illini are for real and that warrants a bump up a notch. Two important games are coming up on Saturday (Wisconsin) and next Thursday (@ Minnesota).
Bubble teams: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., Michigan, Northwestern
Wisconsin: Badgers... it may be time to hit the panic button. Three straight losses, two in OT, put Wisconsin back at .500 and for the first time this season, in serious bubble jeopardy. I understand all their losses in the non-conference were okay but there's ZERO wins to speak of (unless you count Virginia Tech at home, which I don't at the moment). The problem is, there's really nothing preventing this team from not making the tournament should they finish around .500 in conference, unlike Michigan/Minnesota who at least have good OOC wins. It's not over yet by any means but lose @ Illinois on Saturday and things become really dicey.
Minnesota: Important road win @ Wisconsin to keep the Gophers above water, but were unable to make any sort of a run at home vs. Purdue. Could they survive finishing below .500 in conference with the weak OOC schedule? Probably not, but it's looking more and more likely they'll be above .500. Back-to-back Important game next Thursday when Illinois will be in their house.
Ohio State: Well, they're staying alive for now. Win @ Michigan important and loss @ Illinois, while not great, isn't all that bad either. Remember Lighty is still out. They’ll have him back for the tournament and the list of wins with him (@ Miami, Notre Dame) is pretty impressive. Right now they're establishing themselves as 5th or 6th in the Big 10, which, combined with the Lighty situation, should be plenty to get them in
Michigan: Losses to Ohio St. and @ Penn St. put the Wolverines below .500 in conference. If they end up under .500 in Big Ten play,the wins over Duke and UCLA (neutral) are going to be a distant memory to the committee. I still think they’re a good team but they really need to start getting some consistency if they want to keep their bubble status.
Northwestern: They make the list after winning against consecutive ranked opponents. The Wildcats actually beat Florida State in the non-conference, so that helps as well. Their tournament chances? They'd have to win a ton of games in conference, and they've already lost @ Penn St. and @ Wisconsin, immediately putting them under the 8-ball. But they just won @ Michigan St., so theoretically they could beat anyone in conference, and the next 5 are all winnable games. Is it feasible this team could be 7-4 in conference when Illinois comes to town on February 12th? Either way, basketball is finally relevant in Evanston... sort of.
Big 12
Missouri's 3-1 start in conference establishes a clear top 5 and bottom 7. After that, things get interesting/mediocre. Texas A&M isn't doing anything to help their cause and their profile could really use some good wins. Kansas St. is gone due to their 0-4 start in Big 12 play. If Nebraska hadn't lost to UMBC and Iowa State, I'd consider putting 6 in, but their profile isn't good enough at this point to survive those losses.
In: OU, Texas, Kansas
Should be in: Baylor
Baylor: Survived Oklahoma St. in OT and put away Kansas St. quietly to set up an important game in Norman on Saturday. This is somewhat of a win-win situation for the Bears, as they're still solidly in even if they lose, but it would be huge to take down the conference leaders on their turf. And if not, well, Texas rolls into town on Tuesday, so they at least have a shot at getting that one as well.
Bubble teams: Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., Nebraska
Missouri: Important win @ Oklahoma St. will temporarily silence critics. They haven't played any of the 4 ahead of them yet, but they're solidly 5th in conference at this point and @ Nebraska isn't an entirely bad loss. Wins over Cal and USC make for a very solid non-conference season. A couple of important bubble team games coming up this week before @ Baylor and Texas back to back next Saturday and Wednesday.
Texas A&M: Maybe I called the "in the tournament" too early. I mean, I know it's @ Oklahoma and @ Kansas, but at least have a pulse against the Jayhawks. Anyway, the more I review this team's resume, the more I think it's not happening this year. Loss to Tulsa not all that good. Win over Arizona looking worse and worse as Arizona tanks, and that's about all they have on the non-conference slate. One more tough game @ Texas before a must-win vs. Texas Tech on Jan 28th.
Oklahoma St.: Well, they got neither Baylor or Missouri. They've jumped A&M in the standings but if the Aggies aren't playing well either, that doesn't really help. There's not much in the OOC portion, with their best win over Tulsa. @ Nebraska on Saturday could be a winner-stays-on-the-bubble game.
Nebraska: Led Oklahoma at the half but couldn't keep it, which is a shame because they really needed that game. Ugly losses to Maryland-Baltimore County, Oregon State, and Iowa State hurt. Their inconsistency will likely be the Cornhuskers' downfall.
Big East
9 still looking like an almost certainty. West Virginia picks up a huge road win over Georgetown to solidify their spot. Villanova still hasn't really beaten anyone but they're at least playing well enough that I'm confident they will find a way to get in. Providence really, really could've used that Marquette game but they remain out for now. And unless someone has a really good reason to keep UC on this list, I'm taking them off.
In: Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, ND, Marquette, Louisville
Should be in: West Virginia
West Virginia: Big road win over the Hoyas keeps this team in good shape. Avoid an upset at the hands of St. John's on Wednesday and the Mountaineers are looking very good for a bid. Uneventful non-conference resume includes wins @ Ohio State and losses to Kentucky and Davidson.
Bubble teams: Villanova, Providence, St. John's
Villanova: They led UConn for much of the game but fell short in the end. That still gives me enough confidence to believe this team will get there. Still, look at the wins: Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s, Temple. They’d be in good shape if they played in the A-10. Right now Nova’s lacking that marquee win. Just like the previous few years, Villanova could be on the bubble until the conference tournament, but things are looking better at the moment.
Providence: Decent road win over Seton Hall keeps them in the mix. Last Saturday they were in the Marquette game for much of it but were unable to come out on top. Despite that, their conference record is still holding up, and they've got another shot at home vs. Syracuse on Wednesday to make an impression. The OOC season wasn’t nice to the Friars, with a loss to Northeastern to begin the season and no marquee wins to speak of after missing on Baylor and St. Mary’s. Win over Rhode Island could be important for comparison purposes.
St. John’s: Loss to Cincinnati really, really hurts the Red Storm's case. With the difficult conference start, they needed all the wins they could get, and that was one they needed. Nothing in their non-conference resume would back up a bad conference record, but nothing would hurt it either. Finishing above .500 in conference is looking really bleak at the moment.
SEC
At least there's some separation. There's sort of a clear top of the conference and bottom ofd the conference. What isn't good is that some of the teams at the top (Kentucky, Miss St.) had poor non-conference runs and some of the teams at the bottom (Arkansas) had good non-conference runs. What to do?
In: None
Should be in: Tennessee, Florida
Tennessee: This is probably more a "standard procedure" move down than anything else, but you can't lose to Kentucky on your home floor and be expected to stay a lock. The Vols will be fine given the mediocrity of their conference, but they better thank their lucky stars they're not playing in a different power conference where they'd be tested every night. Important game at home vs. Memphis on Saturday can vault this team back into lock status.
Florida: I have no real reason to keep this team out, despite the loss to South Carolina, simply because there's nobody else to put ahead of them, meaning they'll get 12-13 conference wins at least and that will be plenty. They’ve beaten all the teams they were supposed to (except @ Florida St. and @ South Carolina), but no marquee wins to speak of. They’ll probably get in based on sheer number of wins.
Bubble teams: Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, South Carolina, Mississippi St.
Kentucky: Right now Kentucky is the only undefeated team in the SEC, and it's getting to the point where I'll have no choice but to move them up a notch. The Wildcats have had their fair share of criticism over the course of this season but the next two games are winnable, and if they can take care of business at home vs. South Carolina and Mississippi State they'll be undefeated in SEC play when Florida comes to town on Feb. 10th. But still... they lost to VMI. That HAS to mean something.
Arkansas: Loss to Florida really puts Arkansas in a bind. 0-3 in the SEC, or consecutive (almost) Top 10 wins? Either way, they desperately need to beat Alabama and Auburn before the Jan 31st game vs LSU.
LSU: One thing I didn't realize: this team's RPI is awful. I know they haven't beaten anybody (although that may change after the Xavier game on Saturday) but seriously, an RPI of over 300? Anyway, if they can get a bunch of wins in conference and beat some of the few legit teams, I think they'll be fine, but who knows at this point.
South Carolina: Missed a really good opportunity at home vs. Tennessee but took home Florida as a consolation prize. A couple of must-win games for the Gamecocks before back-to-back trips to Kentucky and Florida. Win over Baylor still looking strong. Gaudy record masks bad loss to Charleston. They still need to perform well in conference but the bid is there for the taking.
Mississippi State: Got hammered by LSU, and without a legit win to speak of (other than @ Arkansas, which is fading fast) the Bulldogs are not in a position to be arguing about a bubble spot.
Pac-10
It's looking like a 3 team race at this point. Two teams were expected, but Cal has crashed the party and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon (unless they keep losing to teams like Oregon State). Other than that... USC and Washington are making serious pushes to be considered. Their showdown tonight could be for an early bubble spot. Other than that, you have a mediocre team with an even more mediocre resume (Wash St.), a team fading fast (Arizona), and a team with a gaudy record but not a lot of wins to show for it (Stanford). The Pac-10 may only get 4 in this year.
In: UCLA, Arizona St.
Should be in: Cal
Cal: Hmm... loss to Oregon State not the worst thing in the world, but the biggest thing the Bears had going for them was conference record. Still safe for now, but for future games against the Oregon schools, it would be advisable to win. Non-conference schedule includes reasonable losses to Florida St. and Missouri and wins @ UNLV and @ Utah.
Bubble teams: Washington, Stanford, USC, Arizona
Stanford: Every time I think this Cardinal team is going to fade into oblivion, they go out and beat Cal. One more game against Oregon State before the @ USC/@ UCLA team which could make or break this squad. Absolutely nothing in non-conference play to back them up, but hey, at least they didn't lose!
Arizona: When you're 2-5 in conference, and the only two wins you have are over the worst and 2nd-worst team in the conference... yea, you've got issues. They have some very good OOC wins (Gonzaga, Kansas) but they're having problems beating the middle of the road Pac-10 teams. How is that going to get it done?
Other conferences:
Not many changes for the better for the mid-majors. BYU's two losses drop them down to the bubble. UNLV and San Diego State are making charges, and the Mountain West may be warranting their own conference projection soon. Outside of the Mountain West, though, no other small conference will probably get more than two in.
In: Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga
Should be in: St. Mary’s, Memphis, UNLV, Dayton, Davidson
St. Mary's: Bad loss to UTEP can be overlooked due to sheer number of wins and number of good wins (Providence, @ Oregon, @ Kansas St., @ SIU). As long as they take care of business in the WCC they should be fine.
Memphis: They don’t have any real great wins (best is home v. Cincinnati) but they've got a great shot Saturday vs. Tennessee. All the losses are reasonable and they should win the C-USA which will be enough to get in.
Dayton: The Flyers are holding on in the A-10 conference schedule, and there's still no reason to suggest they're not second best in the A-10, which will be good enough to get in. Loss @ Creighton still not good though.
Bubble teams: UNLV, BYU, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Creighton, Utah, San Diego State, Utah State, Houston
UNLV: Bad start to the conference slate cleaned up by win @ BYU. Win @ Louisville still looks great as well. They're in a similar position to BYU but at least they have a significant non-conference win to speak of. They're looking okay for a bid at the moment.
BYU: Two straight losses put the Cougars in a bit of bubble jeopardy. They missed on their two non-conference opportunities (Wake Forest and Arizona State) so there's nothing backing up their resume should they fall short of the Mountain West auto bid. I would imagine the Mountain West regular season champ is good enough for an at-large (it has been in the past) but there's no reason to suggest that's a lock after the loss to UNLV at home.
Rhode Island: Poor A-10 start really puts the pressure on the Rams. Loss at St. Joe's is not good, as that's a comparable bubble team. It’s hard to believe only two teams could make it from the Atlantic 10, but it will probably happen. Losses to Duke and Villanova are nothing to be upset about, and losses @ Providence and and Oklahoma St. aren’t awful, but there just simply aren't enough good wins.
Illinois State: The Redbirds are playing okay in the MVC but certainly not good enough to get an auto-bid. They'll probably need the MVC auto-bid to get in now.
Creighton: Their at-large status was already iffy heading into conference play. They're back on track in the Missouri Valley but it's not enough. They’ll likely need the MVC auto-bid.
Utah: Loss to San Diego State isn't good, but the Utes are still 3-1 in conference. The Utes have an extremely awful set of losses, including a loss to a Division 2 team. However, recent wins over Gonzaga and LSU have put them in at-large consideration. At this point, the resume is not good enough. But there are good wins to come by in the Mountain West, and this team is very capable of making a run and taking the regular season title. HUGE game @ UNLV on Saturday.
San Diego State: Picked up the big win they needed over Utah and now have a very important game @ BYU next Saturday. If they can pull that off, I will be leading the charge to put this team in the tournament. Losses are all reasonable and relatively close, and a couple of wins over tournament teams is good enough for now.
Utah State: The WAC favorites fell to BYU on a neutral court but did beat fellow bubble member Utah. The OOC schedule probably isn’t strong enough for an at-large bid though.
Anyway, there's still plenty of question marks, and new teams like Northwestern and Virginia Tech that could make some bubble noise, but some conferences are beginning to clear up, like the Big East. Then again, others, like the Big Ten, only get more confusing. Here's your outlook:
ACC
The top 5 continue to do what needs to be done to lock up tournament bids. Clemson took two hits in a week but remain in the lock category due to the fact that they were both top 10 teams. Miami (Fl) can't quite break into the lock category yet but continues to win games they should win. Will 6 get in? Virginia Tech is 3-1 in conference but had probably the worst non-conference resume of all the bubble teams. The rest are floating around .500. I'm guessing, like last year, they'll beat up on each other too much for any of them to make a serious tournament run.
In: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson
Should be in: Miami (FL)
Miami (Fl): The U was unable to pull off the upset in Chapel Hill but held off Florida St at home for an important bubble win. Good wins @ BC and Maryland mean the Canes would definitely be in at this point. I'll still hold off lock status due to lack of a marquee win. All four losses are to good teams (UConn, Ohio State without McClinton for much of the game, Clemson, UNC) but their best wins are @ Kentucky and @ St. John’s so there’s not much backing in terms of OOC wins. Virginia Tech comes into town on Sunday, fresh off an upset of the #1 team and hungry for some good conference wins, so that will not be an easy game by any means. They get Wake at home on February 4th if they want that marquee win.
Bubble teams: Florida St., VT, BC, Maryland, NC State
Florida St.: The biggest thing to happen to the Seminoles this week didn't even involve the team. Northwestern's recent upset streak now makes their loss to them seem completely reasonable. @ Miami (Fl) would've really helped boost their profile. Win over Maryland very important in terms of bubble order. Lots of sort-of-good wins (Cincinnati, Cal, Florida, Texas Tech) but no defining win. UNC comes to town next Wednesday and a win there would be big. I'd actually put this team next in the pecking order after Miami (Fl) but will that be enough to get in?
Virginia Tech: Huge, huge road victory over the #1 team in the nation puts the Hokies back in the discussion. They're 3-1 in conference right now and have another big road test @ Miami (Fl) on Sunday. Beat Virginia and Richmond but neither are the types of wins VT needs at this point. @ St. John’s is the best win to speak of so far, but they missed out on every other OOC opportunity. I still think this team is a few good wins away from seriously being in the tournament discussion but as of this point they have a legit argument for being the 6th best team in the ACC.
Boston College: Going 1-4 (with the only win being over conference bottom dweller Georgia Tech in OT) is not a good way to follow up the upset over UNC. While the loss to Harvard is particularly painful, they missed out on some chances to get additional good wins at home, which could come back to haunt them. Win @ UNC is all this team has right now. Also have that semi-ugly loss @ St. Louis. Important bubble games with NC State, Maryland, and Virginia Tech are big in the next two weeks if BC wants to get some conference separation.
Maryland: Lost what would've been a huge win @ Florida St. but at least held serve at home over Virginia. Swept the Michigan schools, But the loss to Marist really hurts. Sunday afternoon game @ Duke is a great place to make a conference statement, because the Terps really aren't doing much of anything right now.
North Carolina St.: They led Duke at the half but Henderson was too much for the Wolfpack and they fell to 1-3 in conference. All OOC losses are to likely tournament teams (@ Davidson, Marquette, Florida) but those were the only quality teams on their OOC schedule so the Wolfpack are left without a decent win to speak of. Any conference win would be good at this point since they're on the bottom of the ACC pecking order at the moment.
Big Ten
Confusion, thy name is Big Ten. The 9th and 10th place teams in the conference pulled off upsets Wednesday to wreak havoc on the conference. The Big Ten title is back up for grabs after Michigan State lost to Northwestern but it's not enough to take them off of lock status (although I will be keeping my eye on this team...). Wisconsin in particular is really struggling and in this conference, a few upsets could mean the difference between 3rd or 4th in the Big Ten and out of the tournament
In: Michigan St.
Should be in: Purdue, Illinois
Purdue: Road win over Minnesota solidifies the Boilers as a legit Big Ten title threat again and in turn makes them a very good bet for the tournament. Not a lock yet due to the difficulty of the upcoming schedule (@ Wisconsin, Michigan, @ Ohio State, @ Illinois) but 3 out of 4 of those should seal it for now.
Illinois: Okay, I believe it. This team's not going away anytime soon. Near miss @ Michigan St. and win over Ohio St. shows me the Illini are for real and that warrants a bump up a notch. Two important games are coming up on Saturday (Wisconsin) and next Thursday (@ Minnesota).
Bubble teams: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., Michigan, Northwestern
Wisconsin: Badgers... it may be time to hit the panic button. Three straight losses, two in OT, put Wisconsin back at .500 and for the first time this season, in serious bubble jeopardy. I understand all their losses in the non-conference were okay but there's ZERO wins to speak of (unless you count Virginia Tech at home, which I don't at the moment). The problem is, there's really nothing preventing this team from not making the tournament should they finish around .500 in conference, unlike Michigan/Minnesota who at least have good OOC wins. It's not over yet by any means but lose @ Illinois on Saturday and things become really dicey.
Minnesota: Important road win @ Wisconsin to keep the Gophers above water, but were unable to make any sort of a run at home vs. Purdue. Could they survive finishing below .500 in conference with the weak OOC schedule? Probably not, but it's looking more and more likely they'll be above .500. Back-to-back Important game next Thursday when Illinois will be in their house.
Ohio State: Well, they're staying alive for now. Win @ Michigan important and loss @ Illinois, while not great, isn't all that bad either. Remember Lighty is still out. They’ll have him back for the tournament and the list of wins with him (@ Miami, Notre Dame) is pretty impressive. Right now they're establishing themselves as 5th or 6th in the Big 10, which, combined with the Lighty situation, should be plenty to get them in
Michigan: Losses to Ohio St. and @ Penn St. put the Wolverines below .500 in conference. If they end up under .500 in Big Ten play,the wins over Duke and UCLA (neutral) are going to be a distant memory to the committee. I still think they’re a good team but they really need to start getting some consistency if they want to keep their bubble status.
Northwestern: They make the list after winning against consecutive ranked opponents. The Wildcats actually beat Florida State in the non-conference, so that helps as well. Their tournament chances? They'd have to win a ton of games in conference, and they've already lost @ Penn St. and @ Wisconsin, immediately putting them under the 8-ball. But they just won @ Michigan St., so theoretically they could beat anyone in conference, and the next 5 are all winnable games. Is it feasible this team could be 7-4 in conference when Illinois comes to town on February 12th? Either way, basketball is finally relevant in Evanston... sort of.
Big 12
Missouri's 3-1 start in conference establishes a clear top 5 and bottom 7. After that, things get interesting/mediocre. Texas A&M isn't doing anything to help their cause and their profile could really use some good wins. Kansas St. is gone due to their 0-4 start in Big 12 play. If Nebraska hadn't lost to UMBC and Iowa State, I'd consider putting 6 in, but their profile isn't good enough at this point to survive those losses.
In: OU, Texas, Kansas
Should be in: Baylor
Baylor: Survived Oklahoma St. in OT and put away Kansas St. quietly to set up an important game in Norman on Saturday. This is somewhat of a win-win situation for the Bears, as they're still solidly in even if they lose, but it would be huge to take down the conference leaders on their turf. And if not, well, Texas rolls into town on Tuesday, so they at least have a shot at getting that one as well.
Bubble teams: Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., Nebraska
Missouri: Important win @ Oklahoma St. will temporarily silence critics. They haven't played any of the 4 ahead of them yet, but they're solidly 5th in conference at this point and @ Nebraska isn't an entirely bad loss. Wins over Cal and USC make for a very solid non-conference season. A couple of important bubble team games coming up this week before @ Baylor and Texas back to back next Saturday and Wednesday.
Texas A&M: Maybe I called the "in the tournament" too early. I mean, I know it's @ Oklahoma and @ Kansas, but at least have a pulse against the Jayhawks. Anyway, the more I review this team's resume, the more I think it's not happening this year. Loss to Tulsa not all that good. Win over Arizona looking worse and worse as Arizona tanks, and that's about all they have on the non-conference slate. One more tough game @ Texas before a must-win vs. Texas Tech on Jan 28th.
Oklahoma St.: Well, they got neither Baylor or Missouri. They've jumped A&M in the standings but if the Aggies aren't playing well either, that doesn't really help. There's not much in the OOC portion, with their best win over Tulsa. @ Nebraska on Saturday could be a winner-stays-on-the-bubble game.
Nebraska: Led Oklahoma at the half but couldn't keep it, which is a shame because they really needed that game. Ugly losses to Maryland-Baltimore County, Oregon State, and Iowa State hurt. Their inconsistency will likely be the Cornhuskers' downfall.
Big East
9 still looking like an almost certainty. West Virginia picks up a huge road win over Georgetown to solidify their spot. Villanova still hasn't really beaten anyone but they're at least playing well enough that I'm confident they will find a way to get in. Providence really, really could've used that Marquette game but they remain out for now. And unless someone has a really good reason to keep UC on this list, I'm taking them off.
In: Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, ND, Marquette, Louisville
Should be in: West Virginia
West Virginia: Big road win over the Hoyas keeps this team in good shape. Avoid an upset at the hands of St. John's on Wednesday and the Mountaineers are looking very good for a bid. Uneventful non-conference resume includes wins @ Ohio State and losses to Kentucky and Davidson.
Bubble teams: Villanova, Providence, St. John's
Villanova: They led UConn for much of the game but fell short in the end. That still gives me enough confidence to believe this team will get there. Still, look at the wins: Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s, Temple. They’d be in good shape if they played in the A-10. Right now Nova’s lacking that marquee win. Just like the previous few years, Villanova could be on the bubble until the conference tournament, but things are looking better at the moment.
Providence: Decent road win over Seton Hall keeps them in the mix. Last Saturday they were in the Marquette game for much of it but were unable to come out on top. Despite that, their conference record is still holding up, and they've got another shot at home vs. Syracuse on Wednesday to make an impression. The OOC season wasn’t nice to the Friars, with a loss to Northeastern to begin the season and no marquee wins to speak of after missing on Baylor and St. Mary’s. Win over Rhode Island could be important for comparison purposes.
St. John’s: Loss to Cincinnati really, really hurts the Red Storm's case. With the difficult conference start, they needed all the wins they could get, and that was one they needed. Nothing in their non-conference resume would back up a bad conference record, but nothing would hurt it either. Finishing above .500 in conference is looking really bleak at the moment.
SEC
At least there's some separation. There's sort of a clear top of the conference and bottom ofd the conference. What isn't good is that some of the teams at the top (Kentucky, Miss St.) had poor non-conference runs and some of the teams at the bottom (Arkansas) had good non-conference runs. What to do?
In: None
Should be in: Tennessee, Florida
Tennessee: This is probably more a "standard procedure" move down than anything else, but you can't lose to Kentucky on your home floor and be expected to stay a lock. The Vols will be fine given the mediocrity of their conference, but they better thank their lucky stars they're not playing in a different power conference where they'd be tested every night. Important game at home vs. Memphis on Saturday can vault this team back into lock status.
Florida: I have no real reason to keep this team out, despite the loss to South Carolina, simply because there's nobody else to put ahead of them, meaning they'll get 12-13 conference wins at least and that will be plenty. They’ve beaten all the teams they were supposed to (except @ Florida St. and @ South Carolina), but no marquee wins to speak of. They’ll probably get in based on sheer number of wins.
Bubble teams: Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, South Carolina, Mississippi St.
Kentucky: Right now Kentucky is the only undefeated team in the SEC, and it's getting to the point where I'll have no choice but to move them up a notch. The Wildcats have had their fair share of criticism over the course of this season but the next two games are winnable, and if they can take care of business at home vs. South Carolina and Mississippi State they'll be undefeated in SEC play when Florida comes to town on Feb. 10th. But still... they lost to VMI. That HAS to mean something.
Arkansas: Loss to Florida really puts Arkansas in a bind. 0-3 in the SEC, or consecutive (almost) Top 10 wins? Either way, they desperately need to beat Alabama and Auburn before the Jan 31st game vs LSU.
LSU: One thing I didn't realize: this team's RPI is awful. I know they haven't beaten anybody (although that may change after the Xavier game on Saturday) but seriously, an RPI of over 300? Anyway, if they can get a bunch of wins in conference and beat some of the few legit teams, I think they'll be fine, but who knows at this point.
South Carolina: Missed a really good opportunity at home vs. Tennessee but took home Florida as a consolation prize. A couple of must-win games for the Gamecocks before back-to-back trips to Kentucky and Florida. Win over Baylor still looking strong. Gaudy record masks bad loss to Charleston. They still need to perform well in conference but the bid is there for the taking.
Mississippi State: Got hammered by LSU, and without a legit win to speak of (other than @ Arkansas, which is fading fast) the Bulldogs are not in a position to be arguing about a bubble spot.
Pac-10
It's looking like a 3 team race at this point. Two teams were expected, but Cal has crashed the party and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon (unless they keep losing to teams like Oregon State). Other than that... USC and Washington are making serious pushes to be considered. Their showdown tonight could be for an early bubble spot. Other than that, you have a mediocre team with an even more mediocre resume (Wash St.), a team fading fast (Arizona), and a team with a gaudy record but not a lot of wins to show for it (Stanford). The Pac-10 may only get 4 in this year.
In: UCLA, Arizona St.
Should be in: Cal
Cal: Hmm... loss to Oregon State not the worst thing in the world, but the biggest thing the Bears had going for them was conference record. Still safe for now, but for future games against the Oregon schools, it would be advisable to win. Non-conference schedule includes reasonable losses to Florida St. and Missouri and wins @ UNLV and @ Utah.
Bubble teams: Washington, Stanford, USC, Arizona
Washington: Don't look now, but Washington is tied for the Pac-10 lead and with the USC win, they appear to be peaking at the right time. Loss to Cal in OT only thing keeping the Huskies out of first in the Pac-10. This is making up for a poor non-conference schedule which included no signature wins and a loss to Portland, but if they play this well in conference, it won't matter.
USC: Loss to Washington moves the Trojans back down to .500. At least they got the win at Arizona St. last week. Their best non-conference wins are Georgia Tech and @ Oregon, which means they have some work to do. Handing Oregon St. their first conference win in over a year doesn’t help their case. If I had to guess, I'd say this team is probably in, but there's still plenty of season left to be played and there's good arguments for both sides.Stanford: Every time I think this Cardinal team is going to fade into oblivion, they go out and beat Cal. One more game against Oregon State before the @ USC/@ UCLA team which could make or break this squad. Absolutely nothing in non-conference play to back them up, but hey, at least they didn't lose!
Arizona: When you're 2-5 in conference, and the only two wins you have are over the worst and 2nd-worst team in the conference... yea, you've got issues. They have some very good OOC wins (Gonzaga, Kansas) but they're having problems beating the middle of the road Pac-10 teams. How is that going to get it done?
Other conferences:
Not many changes for the better for the mid-majors. BYU's two losses drop them down to the bubble. UNLV and San Diego State are making charges, and the Mountain West may be warranting their own conference projection soon. Outside of the Mountain West, though, no other small conference will probably get more than two in.
In: Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga
Should be in: St. Mary’s, Memphis, UNLV, Dayton, Davidson
St. Mary's: Bad loss to UTEP can be overlooked due to sheer number of wins and number of good wins (Providence, @ Oregon, @ Kansas St., @ SIU). As long as they take care of business in the WCC they should be fine.
Memphis: They don’t have any real great wins (best is home v. Cincinnati) but they've got a great shot Saturday vs. Tennessee. All the losses are reasonable and they should win the C-USA which will be enough to get in.
Dayton: The Flyers are holding on in the A-10 conference schedule, and there's still no reason to suggest they're not second best in the A-10, which will be good enough to get in. Loss @ Creighton still not good though.
Bubble teams: UNLV, BYU, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Creighton, Utah, San Diego State, Utah State, Houston
UNLV: Bad start to the conference slate cleaned up by win @ BYU. Win @ Louisville still looks great as well. They're in a similar position to BYU but at least they have a significant non-conference win to speak of. They're looking okay for a bid at the moment.
BYU: Two straight losses put the Cougars in a bit of bubble jeopardy. They missed on their two non-conference opportunities (Wake Forest and Arizona State) so there's nothing backing up their resume should they fall short of the Mountain West auto bid. I would imagine the Mountain West regular season champ is good enough for an at-large (it has been in the past) but there's no reason to suggest that's a lock after the loss to UNLV at home.
Rhode Island: Poor A-10 start really puts the pressure on the Rams. Loss at St. Joe's is not good, as that's a comparable bubble team. It’s hard to believe only two teams could make it from the Atlantic 10, but it will probably happen. Losses to Duke and Villanova are nothing to be upset about, and losses @ Providence and and Oklahoma St. aren’t awful, but there just simply aren't enough good wins.
Illinois State: The Redbirds are playing okay in the MVC but certainly not good enough to get an auto-bid. They'll probably need the MVC auto-bid to get in now.
Creighton: Their at-large status was already iffy heading into conference play. They're back on track in the Missouri Valley but it's not enough. They’ll likely need the MVC auto-bid.
Utah: Loss to San Diego State isn't good, but the Utes are still 3-1 in conference. The Utes have an extremely awful set of losses, including a loss to a Division 2 team. However, recent wins over Gonzaga and LSU have put them in at-large consideration. At this point, the resume is not good enough. But there are good wins to come by in the Mountain West, and this team is very capable of making a run and taking the regular season title. HUGE game @ UNLV on Saturday.
San Diego State: Picked up the big win they needed over Utah and now have a very important game @ BYU next Saturday. If they can pull that off, I will be leading the charge to put this team in the tournament. Losses are all reasonable and relatively close, and a couple of wins over tournament teams is good enough for now.
Utah State: The WAC favorites fell to BYU on a neutral court but did beat fellow bubble member Utah. The OOC schedule probably isn’t strong enough for an at-large bid though.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Games to Watch - Week of Jan 19th
Another exciting weekend of college basketball saw two of the three remaining undefeateds fall, leaving only 1 team in the nation still yet to lose a game... Wake Forest. Somewhat of a surprise. We all knew they'd be good, but not this early. This team is supremely talented and athletic though. Here's what's on tap for the upcoming week:
Mon, Jan 19th
Syracuse @ Pitt - The Orange followed up a lackluster performance at G-Town with an impressive victory at home over ND. They will have to win some big road games if they want to win the Big East and this is one of them. This game could determine who wins the conference, especially since this is the only time they play each other.
Cincinnnati @ Providence - The Friars missed out on a big opportunity for a win at home against Marquette. Now they get a much easier opponent but one that won't impress anyone. Better take care of business at home.
Texas A&M @ Kansas - Good bubble game, although I don't think Kansas is neccessarily on the bubble right now. But the Aggies certainly are
Tues, Jan. 20th
Ohio St. @ Illinois - One of those games where, if you're the Illini, you MUST defend your home turf. Illinois is a good team and not in any danger of missing the tourney at the moment, but they can't afford to lose games like this at home.
Virginia @ Maryland - Must win for the Terps? After losing to Florida State in OT, I'd say yes.
Michigan @ Penn St. - The Nittany Lions get another shot at knocking off a good opponent at home. This is a game the Wolverines definitely can't afford to lose, as keeping pace with the middle of the Big Ten pack is a must.
Wed, Jan 21st
Villanova @ UConn - You want respect from me, Villanova? Here's your opportunity. Guys like Scotty Reynolds need to prove they can play well in big games and win. This is as good an opportunity as they come.
Florida St. @ Miami (Fl) - The Seminoles have gotten off to a good start in ACC play. Not saying they're going to win this game or anything, because the U seems to be back on track, but you never know...
Mississippi St. @ LSU - A lot was expected out of LSU this year... weak conference, weak division, many people expected a tournament berth at least. However, at this point the Tigers still have work to do, and they've got company at the top of the SEC West in the form of a well-coached, overachieving Bulldogs squad. This would be an important win for LSU.
Clemson @ UNC - Clemson stuck with Wake Forest on Saturday and put together a good late charge but it wasn't enough. Now they face an even more difficult task: go into Chapel Hill and take down the Tar Heels. Not a fun stretch of games for the Tigers.
Missouri @ Oklahoma St. - If Missouri wants to solidify their tournament status, they'll have to win games like this... on the road against good teams that they should beat.
Nebraska @ Oklahoma - The Cornhuskers' big chance to pick up a marquee win that could make a HUGE difference in March.
Arizona St. @ Arizona - These teams don't like each other, and with the emergence of Arizona State as a legit basketball program, it should be a very competitive game. Probably more important for the Wildcats, who really need to start racking up some wins in Pac-10 play.
UNLV@ BYU - Big time Mountain West game. Stay up late for this one.
Thurs, Jan. 22nd
West Virginia @ Georgetown - West Virginia escaped what would've been a very costly loss by finishing off South Florida at home on Saturday. Thursday they get a big game vs. the Hoyas, who have fallen back a bit after their hot start to the season and could always use a good Big East win at home to keep pace with the conference leaders.
Purdue @ Minnesota - So far this year the Boilers have looked awful on the road. If they want to keep pace with Michigan St. in the Big Ten, they need to start winning road games. Minnesota, meanwhile, needs a big win at home to erase the memory of losing to Northwestern on Sunday.
USC @ Washington - Pac-10 Thursday features a game between two Pac-10 bubble teams. Both have picked up some good wins in conference. The Huskies especially need to get this one, being at home and in the worse position bubble-wise of the two schools.
Fri, Jan 23rd
Brown @ Yale - Yay for Ivy League.
Sat, Jan 24th
Maryland @ Duke - Do the Terps have another big upset in them? If not, it's back to the NIT.
Memphis @ Tennessee - Remember how big this game was last year? It's still big... not #1 vs. #2 big, but still important for both teams. Tennessee needs a good win to recover from this rough patch they've hit as of late... and Memphis could always use a good non-conference win, considering they don't really have one yet.
Wisconsin @ Illinois - Another big, important Big Ten game
Baylor @ OU - Why this game is on ESPNU, I do not know. It could be one of the better games of the day. Then again, with nobody to match up with Blake Griffin, it could also easily be a blowout. The OU backcourt, which has passed pretty much every test they've had this year, gets possibly their biggest test of the year trying to shut down this Baylor backcourt.
UCLA @ Washington - Remember way back in November when Washington lost to Portland? You won't if they get this win.
UConn @ ND - This game's at ND, where they actually play like a legit top 15 team, so this should be a good game. Good matchup of Harangody vs. Thabeet as well
Xavier @ LSU - A random, but hopefully completely enjoyable non-conference game.
Texas A&M @ Texas - This completes a very difficult stretch of Big 12 games for the Aggies. If they can take at least this one or @ Kansas, they will be set up very nicely for the next few weeks, which contains @ Oklahoma and three very winnable games at home. At or above .500, with a few good Big 12 wins, should be enough for the Aggies to get in.
Sun, Jan 25th
Louisville @ Syracuse - Talk about a big week for the Orange. They get two of three biggest contenders for the Big East title (the other being UConn) in one week. Jim Boeheim would probably be happy with a split, and this is the easier of the two. Yea, I said it. A game vs. a team who just beat the top-ranked team in the nation and is on fire at the moment is the easier of the two games. Such is life in the Big East.
Michigan St. @ Ohio St. - Difficult road game for the Spartans. They'll do well to stay undefeated in the Big Ten after this one.
Pitt @ WVU - The Mountaineers gave UConn a good game in their house a few weeks ago, and I'd expect the same from them on Sunday against the Panthers.
Navy @ Army - How can you not highlight the greatest rivalry of them all?
...
oh wait, this is basketball? Never mind then.
Mon, Jan 19th
Syracuse @ Pitt - The Orange followed up a lackluster performance at G-Town with an impressive victory at home over ND. They will have to win some big road games if they want to win the Big East and this is one of them. This game could determine who wins the conference, especially since this is the only time they play each other.
Cincinnnati @ Providence - The Friars missed out on a big opportunity for a win at home against Marquette. Now they get a much easier opponent but one that won't impress anyone. Better take care of business at home.
Texas A&M @ Kansas - Good bubble game, although I don't think Kansas is neccessarily on the bubble right now. But the Aggies certainly are
Tues, Jan. 20th
Ohio St. @ Illinois - One of those games where, if you're the Illini, you MUST defend your home turf. Illinois is a good team and not in any danger of missing the tourney at the moment, but they can't afford to lose games like this at home.
Virginia @ Maryland - Must win for the Terps? After losing to Florida State in OT, I'd say yes.
Michigan @ Penn St. - The Nittany Lions get another shot at knocking off a good opponent at home. This is a game the Wolverines definitely can't afford to lose, as keeping pace with the middle of the Big Ten pack is a must.
Wed, Jan 21st
Villanova @ UConn - You want respect from me, Villanova? Here's your opportunity. Guys like Scotty Reynolds need to prove they can play well in big games and win. This is as good an opportunity as they come.
Florida St. @ Miami (Fl) - The Seminoles have gotten off to a good start in ACC play. Not saying they're going to win this game or anything, because the U seems to be back on track, but you never know...
Mississippi St. @ LSU - A lot was expected out of LSU this year... weak conference, weak division, many people expected a tournament berth at least. However, at this point the Tigers still have work to do, and they've got company at the top of the SEC West in the form of a well-coached, overachieving Bulldogs squad. This would be an important win for LSU.
Clemson @ UNC - Clemson stuck with Wake Forest on Saturday and put together a good late charge but it wasn't enough. Now they face an even more difficult task: go into Chapel Hill and take down the Tar Heels. Not a fun stretch of games for the Tigers.
Missouri @ Oklahoma St. - If Missouri wants to solidify their tournament status, they'll have to win games like this... on the road against good teams that they should beat.
Nebraska @ Oklahoma - The Cornhuskers' big chance to pick up a marquee win that could make a HUGE difference in March.
Arizona St. @ Arizona - These teams don't like each other, and with the emergence of Arizona State as a legit basketball program, it should be a very competitive game. Probably more important for the Wildcats, who really need to start racking up some wins in Pac-10 play.
UNLV@ BYU - Big time Mountain West game. Stay up late for this one.
Thurs, Jan. 22nd
West Virginia @ Georgetown - West Virginia escaped what would've been a very costly loss by finishing off South Florida at home on Saturday. Thursday they get a big game vs. the Hoyas, who have fallen back a bit after their hot start to the season and could always use a good Big East win at home to keep pace with the conference leaders.
Purdue @ Minnesota - So far this year the Boilers have looked awful on the road. If they want to keep pace with Michigan St. in the Big Ten, they need to start winning road games. Minnesota, meanwhile, needs a big win at home to erase the memory of losing to Northwestern on Sunday.
USC @ Washington - Pac-10 Thursday features a game between two Pac-10 bubble teams. Both have picked up some good wins in conference. The Huskies especially need to get this one, being at home and in the worse position bubble-wise of the two schools.
Fri, Jan 23rd
Brown @ Yale - Yay for Ivy League.
Sat, Jan 24th
Maryland @ Duke - Do the Terps have another big upset in them? If not, it's back to the NIT.
Memphis @ Tennessee - Remember how big this game was last year? It's still big... not #1 vs. #2 big, but still important for both teams. Tennessee needs a good win to recover from this rough patch they've hit as of late... and Memphis could always use a good non-conference win, considering they don't really have one yet.
Wisconsin @ Illinois - Another big, important Big Ten game
Baylor @ OU - Why this game is on ESPNU, I do not know. It could be one of the better games of the day. Then again, with nobody to match up with Blake Griffin, it could also easily be a blowout. The OU backcourt, which has passed pretty much every test they've had this year, gets possibly their biggest test of the year trying to shut down this Baylor backcourt.
UCLA @ Washington - Remember way back in November when Washington lost to Portland? You won't if they get this win.
UConn @ ND - This game's at ND, where they actually play like a legit top 15 team, so this should be a good game. Good matchup of Harangody vs. Thabeet as well
Xavier @ LSU - A random, but hopefully completely enjoyable non-conference game.
Texas A&M @ Texas - This completes a very difficult stretch of Big 12 games for the Aggies. If they can take at least this one or @ Kansas, they will be set up very nicely for the next few weeks, which contains @ Oklahoma and three very winnable games at home. At or above .500, with a few good Big 12 wins, should be enough for the Aggies to get in.
Sun, Jan 25th
Louisville @ Syracuse - Talk about a big week for the Orange. They get two of three biggest contenders for the Big East title (the other being UConn) in one week. Jim Boeheim would probably be happy with a split, and this is the easier of the two. Yea, I said it. A game vs. a team who just beat the top-ranked team in the nation and is on fire at the moment is the easier of the two games. Such is life in the Big East.
Michigan St. @ Ohio St. - Difficult road game for the Spartans. They'll do well to stay undefeated in the Big Ten after this one.
Pitt @ WVU - The Mountaineers gave UConn a good game in their house a few weeks ago, and I'd expect the same from them on Sunday against the Panthers.
Navy @ Army - How can you not highlight the greatest rivalry of them all?
...
oh wait, this is basketball? Never mind then.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Bubble Watch - Jan 15th
ACC
This conference continues to look stronger as Clemson and Miami continue to pick up good wins. 5 are almost a certainty now that Miami appears to be playing at the level we expected from them earlier in the season. The downside to the top of the conference getting stronger? It hurts the middle of the conference. 7 will be very, very unlikely unless two teams emerge in conference play. 6 is no guarantee either depending on whether or not teams beat each other up.
In: UNC, Duke,
Should be in:
Miami (Fl): Good wins @ BC and Maryland mean the Canes would definitely be in at this point. I'll still hold off lock status due to lack of a marquee win, but that could easily change if they can take down UNC on the road on Saturday. All three losses are to good teams (
Bubble teams: BC,
Virginia Tech: Beat Virginia and Richmond but neither are the types of wins VT needs at this point. @ St. John’s is the best win to speak of so far, but they missed out on every other OOC opportunity and must pick up a marquee win in conference to get in the dance.
Big Ten
The conference continues to beat up on each other. Michigan St. escaped Penn St. on Wednesday and remains in good shape, but after that there's no guarantees. We could have a lot of teams around .500 in Big Ten play and a few very difficult decisions to make.
In:
Nobody’s safe in this conference but I’ll stick with the conference leader. Wisconsin gets bumped down a notch due to the loss at Purdue (I'll explain later).
Should be in: Purdue, Wisconsin.
Purdue: Big win over Wisconsin puts them in much safer waters. I have a hard time believing the Boilers won't get back on track in Big Ten play and at least be competitive for the Big Ten title.
Wisconsin: I moved them out of lock status because they didn't pass the eye test for me. I think there's a small chance they fall back into the middle of the pack of the Big Ten so I had to move them down a level. That being said, they always seem to look average against us and yet they still take care of business in conference, so they should be safe for now.
Bubble teams:
Big 12
If the season ended today, I'd have to put 6 teams in given the Texas A&M win over Baylor on Wednesday. But will it stay that way? The Aggies aren't out of the deep water yet, and teams like Baylor and Missouri still have to be worried about conference collapses. Teams like Nebraska and Oklahoma St. are knocking on the door.
In: OU,
Should be in:
Baylor: Loss to Texas A&M not outrageous given it was on the road and they're likely a tournament team. They have a couple of gut-check games vs. Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. before the showdown in Norman. It's very important the Bears stay upset-free until the Oklahoma game.
Bubble teams:
Big East
8 teams still looking good. 9 will almost certainly happen, provided Villanova starts kicking it up a notch. 10 is probably not happening, although Providence is starting to put together a somewhat compelling conference case.
In: Pitt,
Should be in:
Bubble teams:
Villanova: Looking at the record and name, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t be a lock to get in. But look at the wins:
SEC
Well, so much for the SEC coming out party. I can't keep Tennessee in lock status after falling to Kentucky on their home floor, and Arkansas is currently 0-2 in conference. Not only that, but teams like Mississippi State that were previously banished to NIT land are starting out well in conference. The SEC is back to where it was at the beginning of the year... a whole bunch of mediocre teams. I have no idea what's going to happen here.
In:
Should be in:
Bubble teams: LSU,
LSU: Not a good loss @ Alabama but at least held serve at home vs. South Carolina. Tough team to judge due to the lack of tests they’ve had. I’d like to think this team will end up in a similar position to
Mississippi State: For some odd reason, I had a feeling we'd hear from this team again. Win @ Arkansas at least puts the Bulldogs in the conversation. The resume isn't there at this point, but with Tennessee playing the way they are right now, the SEC is WIDE open and really, anything's winnable at this point.
Pac-10
It's looking like a 3 team race at this point. Two teams were expected, but Cal has crashed the party and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon. Other than that... Arizona and USC are staying afloat but the water is rising and both teams need to keep the pace. Stanford is falling back to the bottom after an undefeated OOC season. Washington is attempting to make a tournament push but needs some quality conference wins. What does all this add up to? Probably 5 bids from the Pac 10.
In: UCLA,
Top two competitors for the Pac-10 title remain locks. Cal moves into lock position after starting 4-0 in conference.
Should be in:
Bubble teams: USC,
USC: Expectations can only carry you so far. At this point, the Trojans need to start showing it on the court, and they missed out on a big opportunity by losing to UCLA at home. Their best wins are Georgia Tech and @ Oregon, which means they have some work to do. Handing
Stanford: The Cardinal are now 1-3 in the Pac-10 after being swept by the Washingtons. .500 in Pac-10 play isn't going to be good enough, and now it looks like they may not even get that close.
Other conferences:
The mid-major scene looks like normal… a few standouts, and a lot of question marks. The difficulty with many of these teams is judging them when they haven’t played anyone (like
In: Xavier,
Should be in: St. Mary’s,
St. Mary's: Bad loss to UTEP can be overlooked due to sheer number of wins and number of good wins (
Bubble teams:
UNLV: Uh oh time. Losses to TCU and Colorado State put the Rebels in serious danger. Win @
Creighton: Their at-large status was already iffy heading into conference play. They're back on track in the Missouri Valley but it's not enough. They’ll likely need the MVC auto-bid.
Houston: I threw this team out early after losing to Georgia Southern but if teams like Utah and Kentucky can recover from bad early season losses then so can the Cougars. Currently 3-0 in C-USA and wins over UAB and UMass warrant some discussion. Memphis is beatable this year, and a split with them could draw some interest.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Games to Watch - Week of Jan. 12th
First things first... Wake Forest/UNC wasn't on TV at school, so I couldn't watch it. Honestly, I don't care if you're a Pacers fan or not, if you'd rather see a Golden State-Indiana NBA game than a game between 2 of the top 3 or 4 teams in the nation, well... you're crazy. But anyway, the fallout from that game is enormous. For the first time all year, I believe we have a legit reason to believe UNC is not the best team in the nation, and we have a legit reason to say Wake Forest IS the best team in the nation. Personally, I think this team's still too young to suggest they won't look awful in at least a few ACC games and lose, but who knows. Athletically they're capable of beating anyone in the nation, as shown on Sunday. Also, Pitt continues to roll, knocking off a decent St. John's team to stay undefeated. They'll be a difficult team to pick against come March because of their size and toughness at a variety of positions (and DeJuan Blair is an absolute beast). And my Boilers won a Big Ten game! All is right in the world. And on with the games...
Monday, Jan 12th
ND @ Louisville - And in this week's edition of top 25 Big East matchups, we have two of the most inconsistent teams in the conference. Louisville appears to be back on track after a couple of good conference wins, including a 1 point win over Villanova, but this is their first true conference test against an Irish team that can shoot you out of your own gym if you're not prepared. Luckily, ND has looked like a very average team on the road this year... I give the edge to the Cardinals.
Texas @ Oklahoma - Showdown of the two Big 12 and Final Four contenders. For Texas, Abrams has not been shooting well as of late, but Damion James and Gary Johnson have kept the Longhorns alive offensively in the meantime. Oklahoma's defense, especially on the perimeter, has been surprisingly good this year though, and Texas will likely need Abrams to get out of his scoring slump for the Longhorns to pull off a win on the road. Defensively, Texas will have to deal with Blake Griffin like everyone who plays the Sooners have to, but they also have to pay attention to freshman Willie Warren, who put up 35 in the Sooners' only loss of the season @ Arkansas and is a threat to score from a variety of spots on the floor. I have to stick with the home team here.
Tuesday, Jan 13th
Florida St. @ North Carolina St. - Important ACC game for both teams. Each started off with a loss in conference, and with teams like Maryland and BC already winning conference games and Miami seeming to get back on track, wins in the ACC are only going to become more difficult to come by.
Kansas St. @ Kansas - Neither of these teams are as good as last year's versions, but we all saw last year how much these teams hate each other. Should be a fun game to watch regardless of talent.
Kentucky @ Tennessee - The Wildcats NEED a good road win to stamp their resume with. This is the best opportunity they will get all year long, with the Vols recently coming off of a few losses. It's a very difficult task, but when you lose to VMI, you have to do something drastic to get yourself back into the discussion.
Wednesday, Jan 14th
Michigan St. @ Penn St. - Do not overlook the Nittany Lions. I repeat, do NOT overlook the Nittany Lions. I know from first hand experience. They've got 3 of the top 5 scorers in the Big Ten and are coming off of a big home win over Purdue. They are very capable of winning this game if the Spartans do not come prepared to play, and after watching the Spartans this year, there's no guarantees they will come to play.
Duke @ Georgia Tech - Same as above, but replace 3 with 1 (Gani Lawal). Actually, there really isn't a comparison. Duke better win big.
Syracuse @ Georgetown - Ho hum. Another top 10 matchup in the Big East. Seriously, these things happen like every 3 days. Syracuse is making a legit push to be a Final Four contender. This team's talented and balanced enough to do so. The biggest problem is a lack of size, but they rebound fine so it hasn't really hurt them. With Andy Rautins stepping up recently, this team's even more dangerous offensively. However, it's on the road, and this is probably the best halfcourt defense the Orange have seen all year long. I'm actually going to pick the road upset here. I really like this Orange team, and I think G-Town's depth is going to end up killing them in several Big East games this year.
Wake Forest @ Boston College - This is the ultimate trap game for the Demon Deacons. In fact, I bet so many people are calling this upset that I'm actually going to go against the grain and take Wake Forest.
Baylor @ Texas A&M - This is a time when the tournament outlook is supposed to get clearer. Not so in the Big 12. Both the Aggies and Missouri, who were supposed to be the at-large bids from the Big 12, lost their first Big 12 games, to Oklahoma St. and Nebraska, who were supposed to be on the outside looking in. That being said, this is a great chance for the Aggies to get back on track and get a very good conference win.
Maryland @ Miami (FL) - Important bubble game for both teams.
South Carolina @ LSU - This is one of those separation games in the SEC where we find out which teams are going to make legit tournament runs and which teams will settle for NIT bids. Both of these teams could use some good looking wins to bolster their resume with.
SIU @ Creighton - A little old-school Missouri Valley powerhouse matchup for ya.
Michigan @ Illinois - Seriously, the Big Ten's going to be a bloodbath this year. The conference champ could have 5 or 6 losses this year... it's that close. Any of the top 8 teams can beat any of the others... I fully believe that.
Thursday, Jan 15th
Purdue @ Northwestern - We better win. That's all I have to say about that.
UConn @ St. John's - Okay, the moment I started vouching for St. John's, they start to lose. I don't want this blog to become cursed. Come on, Red Storm. Get another good win for me.
Xavier @ Rhode Island - For the Rams, it's getting to the point where theyt absolutely NEED this win. Their best win so far is Penn St. at home... that's not going to cut it in the eyes of the committee. The brownie points gained from losing to Duke at Cameron by only 3 is only going to carry a team so far.
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - Another fun Big 10 matchup. A game where Wisconsin has to hold serve at home if they wish to make a serious Big Ten title run.
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga - The annual Gonzaga domination of the West Coast Conference begins.
Washington @ Oregon - It's thursday, which means Pac-10 night hoops. A good bubble matchup and a game both teams likely need to win to stay on the bubble. That means actually have a chance at making the tournament.
Arizona St. @ USC - Cal's made an early push, and you know UCLA will be there at the end. Both teams need to pick up a win to keep pace at the top of the Pac-10. In USC's case, they may be playing for their tournament lives soon if they can't get this one at home.
Arizona @ UCLA - Not saying Arizona's not in the tournament, but this, combined with the win over Gonzaga, would put to rest a lot of that talk. For a while anyway.
Friday, Jan 16th
A bunch of small conference games. Go party or something.
Saturday, Jan 17th
College b-ball day of reckoning. Check out this slate of games:
ND @ Syracuse - With all this talk about Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry for Player of the Year, Luke Harangody has quietly put up 24.5 points and 12.7 boards a game for the Irish. As for the team, this is the second of two critical road games in the Big East which could determine whether this team is going to compete for the Big East title this year or fall back into the middle of the pack.
Georgetown @ Duke - One of those games that won't have an impact on conference standing or tournament status (although it will affect seeding) but will still be a great game to watch. Duke has kind of become a top 2 team by default, but they haven't really beaten anyone since the pounding of Purdue at Mackey. I'm not sold on them being a Final Four contender this year, and if someone can expose their weakness in the post, it's Greg Monroe and the Hoyas. Speaking of Monroe, this guy's already a stud. I think he needs another year in college but if he comes back, he could be one of the frontrunners for player of the year next season.
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M - In case the Aggies don't get the first one vs. Baylor.
Wake Forest @ Clemson - Time to learn if the Tigers are for real. We know they're a good team. Can they reach that elite level? This is the perfect time to do so. Meanwhile, talk about a difficult week for the Demon Deacons to follow up their win over UNC... two very challenging road games against two teams they should beat but could easily lose to. On a side note, who would've honestly predicted this would be a matchup of top 10 teams way back in November when the season started?
Arizona St. @ UCLA - Unless Cal decides to spoil the party, this game and the one in mid-February could determine the Pac-10 champ.
Illinois @ Michigan St. - Gutcheck time for the Spartans. In a conference like the Big Ten, holding serve at home is a must, and this certainly isn't an easy game for the Spartans. Two games this week Michigan St. should and must win if they want to take the Big Ten title.
Texas @ Texas Tech - Good rivalry game and a game Pat Knight's squad needs to have if they want to make a tournament case.
Pitt @ Louisville - You could look at this in one of two ways if you're a Louisville fan. On the one hand, you're playing a couple of top ten teams in a week. On the other hand, you get to face two teams that are ahead of you in conference on your home floor. If you want to make an early, resounding push for the Big East title, this is the perfect opportunity to do so. Also, they have the athletes to compete with Pitt and win that game.
Cal @ Stanford - Battle of the Pac-10 overachievers. And it's a rivalry game. This should be good.
Ohio St. @ Michigan - Not quite the same on the basketball court, but at least both teams are good this year.
Marquette @ Providence - These are the kinds of games Marquette needs to win if they want to be taken seriously in the Big East.
Miami (FL) @ UNC - Doesn't really get much easier for the Tar Heels, does it?
And this isn't even factoring in important conference games between unranked teams that could all have bubble implications in March... Maryland-Florida St., Arkansas-Florida, Boston College-Virginia Tech, Temple-UMass, Kansas St.-Nebraska, South Carolina-Tennessee, Arizona-USC, UAB-Memphis, Wyoming-UNLV, etc... I love college basketball.
Sunday, January 18th
St. John's @ Villanova - Both teams REALLY need this game. I'm just going to leave it at that.
Iowa @ Purdue - We better win this game too.
Seton Hall @ UConn - Maybe after this game the Pirates will actually get a winnable conference game. And by winnable I'm talking about home vs. Providence which is still a toss-up. Sorry, Seton Hall. That's what you get when you play in the Big East.
Seattle @ PR Bayamon - The Seattle Redhawks are an independent D-I team. You know, most times Div. 1 independents take on schools from a particular conference in order to try and get invited into that conference. Check out who Seattle plays this week (I'm not making this up)
Tuesday: home vs. Linfield College
Saturday: @ Puerto Rico-Rio Piedras
Sunday: @ PR Bayamon
I don't know where those schools are, but you're flying from Seattle to Puerto Rico to play a game? Why? Just play the local YMCA if you want to do that. Guess that's why they're an independent.
Monday, Jan 12th
ND @ Louisville - And in this week's edition of top 25 Big East matchups, we have two of the most inconsistent teams in the conference. Louisville appears to be back on track after a couple of good conference wins, including a 1 point win over Villanova, but this is their first true conference test against an Irish team that can shoot you out of your own gym if you're not prepared. Luckily, ND has looked like a very average team on the road this year... I give the edge to the Cardinals.
Texas @ Oklahoma - Showdown of the two Big 12 and Final Four contenders. For Texas, Abrams has not been shooting well as of late, but Damion James and Gary Johnson have kept the Longhorns alive offensively in the meantime. Oklahoma's defense, especially on the perimeter, has been surprisingly good this year though, and Texas will likely need Abrams to get out of his scoring slump for the Longhorns to pull off a win on the road. Defensively, Texas will have to deal with Blake Griffin like everyone who plays the Sooners have to, but they also have to pay attention to freshman Willie Warren, who put up 35 in the Sooners' only loss of the season @ Arkansas and is a threat to score from a variety of spots on the floor. I have to stick with the home team here.
Tuesday, Jan 13th
Florida St. @ North Carolina St. - Important ACC game for both teams. Each started off with a loss in conference, and with teams like Maryland and BC already winning conference games and Miami seeming to get back on track, wins in the ACC are only going to become more difficult to come by.
Kansas St. @ Kansas - Neither of these teams are as good as last year's versions, but we all saw last year how much these teams hate each other. Should be a fun game to watch regardless of talent.
Kentucky @ Tennessee - The Wildcats NEED a good road win to stamp their resume with. This is the best opportunity they will get all year long, with the Vols recently coming off of a few losses. It's a very difficult task, but when you lose to VMI, you have to do something drastic to get yourself back into the discussion.
Wednesday, Jan 14th
Michigan St. @ Penn St. - Do not overlook the Nittany Lions. I repeat, do NOT overlook the Nittany Lions. I know from first hand experience. They've got 3 of the top 5 scorers in the Big Ten and are coming off of a big home win over Purdue. They are very capable of winning this game if the Spartans do not come prepared to play, and after watching the Spartans this year, there's no guarantees they will come to play.
Duke @ Georgia Tech - Same as above, but replace 3 with 1 (Gani Lawal). Actually, there really isn't a comparison. Duke better win big.
Syracuse @ Georgetown - Ho hum. Another top 10 matchup in the Big East. Seriously, these things happen like every 3 days. Syracuse is making a legit push to be a Final Four contender. This team's talented and balanced enough to do so. The biggest problem is a lack of size, but they rebound fine so it hasn't really hurt them. With Andy Rautins stepping up recently, this team's even more dangerous offensively. However, it's on the road, and this is probably the best halfcourt defense the Orange have seen all year long. I'm actually going to pick the road upset here. I really like this Orange team, and I think G-Town's depth is going to end up killing them in several Big East games this year.
Wake Forest @ Boston College - This is the ultimate trap game for the Demon Deacons. In fact, I bet so many people are calling this upset that I'm actually going to go against the grain and take Wake Forest.
Baylor @ Texas A&M - This is a time when the tournament outlook is supposed to get clearer. Not so in the Big 12. Both the Aggies and Missouri, who were supposed to be the at-large bids from the Big 12, lost their first Big 12 games, to Oklahoma St. and Nebraska, who were supposed to be on the outside looking in. That being said, this is a great chance for the Aggies to get back on track and get a very good conference win.
Maryland @ Miami (FL) - Important bubble game for both teams.
South Carolina @ LSU - This is one of those separation games in the SEC where we find out which teams are going to make legit tournament runs and which teams will settle for NIT bids. Both of these teams could use some good looking wins to bolster their resume with.
SIU @ Creighton - A little old-school Missouri Valley powerhouse matchup for ya.
Michigan @ Illinois - Seriously, the Big Ten's going to be a bloodbath this year. The conference champ could have 5 or 6 losses this year... it's that close. Any of the top 8 teams can beat any of the others... I fully believe that.
Thursday, Jan 15th
Purdue @ Northwestern - We better win. That's all I have to say about that.
UConn @ St. John's - Okay, the moment I started vouching for St. John's, they start to lose. I don't want this blog to become cursed. Come on, Red Storm. Get another good win for me.
Xavier @ Rhode Island - For the Rams, it's getting to the point where theyt absolutely NEED this win. Their best win so far is Penn St. at home... that's not going to cut it in the eyes of the committee. The brownie points gained from losing to Duke at Cameron by only 3 is only going to carry a team so far.
Minnesota @ Wisconsin - Another fun Big 10 matchup. A game where Wisconsin has to hold serve at home if they wish to make a serious Big Ten title run.
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga - The annual Gonzaga domination of the West Coast Conference begins.
Washington @ Oregon - It's thursday, which means Pac-10 night hoops. A good bubble matchup and a game both teams likely need to win to stay on the bubble. That means actually have a chance at making the tournament.
Arizona St. @ USC - Cal's made an early push, and you know UCLA will be there at the end. Both teams need to pick up a win to keep pace at the top of the Pac-10. In USC's case, they may be playing for their tournament lives soon if they can't get this one at home.
Arizona @ UCLA - Not saying Arizona's not in the tournament, but this, combined with the win over Gonzaga, would put to rest a lot of that talk. For a while anyway.
Friday, Jan 16th
A bunch of small conference games. Go party or something.
Saturday, Jan 17th
College b-ball day of reckoning. Check out this slate of games:
ND @ Syracuse - With all this talk about Blake Griffin and Stephen Curry for Player of the Year, Luke Harangody has quietly put up 24.5 points and 12.7 boards a game for the Irish. As for the team, this is the second of two critical road games in the Big East which could determine whether this team is going to compete for the Big East title this year or fall back into the middle of the pack.
Georgetown @ Duke - One of those games that won't have an impact on conference standing or tournament status (although it will affect seeding) but will still be a great game to watch. Duke has kind of become a top 2 team by default, but they haven't really beaten anyone since the pounding of Purdue at Mackey. I'm not sold on them being a Final Four contender this year, and if someone can expose their weakness in the post, it's Greg Monroe and the Hoyas. Speaking of Monroe, this guy's already a stud. I think he needs another year in college but if he comes back, he could be one of the frontrunners for player of the year next season.
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M - In case the Aggies don't get the first one vs. Baylor.
Wake Forest @ Clemson - Time to learn if the Tigers are for real. We know they're a good team. Can they reach that elite level? This is the perfect time to do so. Meanwhile, talk about a difficult week for the Demon Deacons to follow up their win over UNC... two very challenging road games against two teams they should beat but could easily lose to. On a side note, who would've honestly predicted this would be a matchup of top 10 teams way back in November when the season started?
Arizona St. @ UCLA - Unless Cal decides to spoil the party, this game and the one in mid-February could determine the Pac-10 champ.
Illinois @ Michigan St. - Gutcheck time for the Spartans. In a conference like the Big Ten, holding serve at home is a must, and this certainly isn't an easy game for the Spartans. Two games this week Michigan St. should and must win if they want to take the Big Ten title.
Texas @ Texas Tech - Good rivalry game and a game Pat Knight's squad needs to have if they want to make a tournament case.
Pitt @ Louisville - You could look at this in one of two ways if you're a Louisville fan. On the one hand, you're playing a couple of top ten teams in a week. On the other hand, you get to face two teams that are ahead of you in conference on your home floor. If you want to make an early, resounding push for the Big East title, this is the perfect opportunity to do so. Also, they have the athletes to compete with Pitt and win that game.
Cal @ Stanford - Battle of the Pac-10 overachievers. And it's a rivalry game. This should be good.
Ohio St. @ Michigan - Not quite the same on the basketball court, but at least both teams are good this year.
Marquette @ Providence - These are the kinds of games Marquette needs to win if they want to be taken seriously in the Big East.
Miami (FL) @ UNC - Doesn't really get much easier for the Tar Heels, does it?
And this isn't even factoring in important conference games between unranked teams that could all have bubble implications in March... Maryland-Florida St., Arkansas-Florida, Boston College-Virginia Tech, Temple-UMass, Kansas St.-Nebraska, South Carolina-Tennessee, Arizona-USC, UAB-Memphis, Wyoming-UNLV, etc... I love college basketball.
Sunday, January 18th
St. John's @ Villanova - Both teams REALLY need this game. I'm just going to leave it at that.
Iowa @ Purdue - We better win this game too.
Seton Hall @ UConn - Maybe after this game the Pirates will actually get a winnable conference game. And by winnable I'm talking about home vs. Providence which is still a toss-up. Sorry, Seton Hall. That's what you get when you play in the Big East.
Seattle @ PR Bayamon - The Seattle Redhawks are an independent D-I team. You know, most times Div. 1 independents take on schools from a particular conference in order to try and get invited into that conference. Check out who Seattle plays this week (I'm not making this up)
Tuesday: home vs. Linfield College
Saturday: @ Puerto Rico-Rio Piedras
Sunday: @ PR Bayamon
I don't know where those schools are, but you're flying from Seattle to Puerto Rico to play a game? Why? Just play the local YMCA if you want to do that. Guess that's why they're an independent.
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