Bubble Watch - March 12th

Judgment day for bubble teams. Here's a look at the current picture:

Locks:
Xavier
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake
Florida St
Kansas
OU
Missouri
Texas
UConn
Louisville
Pitt
Marquette
Villanova
Syracuse
West Virginia (given the current outlook of the bubble, they've done more than enough)
Michigan St.
Illinois
Purdue
Ohio St
Washington
Arizona St.
Cal
UCLA
LSU
Tennessee (I can't think of a scenario where the Vols wouldn't get in so... good enough for me)
Utah
BYU
Butler

In with a win today:
Providence
BC
Michigan
Penn State
Arizona
Oklahoma St.
Dayton

More work left to do (What they have to do to get in):
Rhode Island (A-10 final)
VT (ACC semis)
Maryland (ACC semis)
Miami (ACC final? Potentially could get in with a quarterfinal win, but need the semifinal win just to be safe)
Wisconsin (Big Ten semis)
Minnesota (Big Ten semis)
Northwestern (Big Ten semis)
New Mexico (Mountain West final... only because I'd like to see a good road/neutral win. They could potentially get in with a close loss to Utah, but they're playing with the committee if that happens.)
San Diego St (Mountain West final... quarterfinal win might be enough, but might not)
UNLV (Mountain West final... out of the three MWC teams, they could survive a semifinal loss the most.)
South Carolina (SEC final... a quarterfinal win may be good enough but they need all the RPI Top 50 wins they can get)
Florida (SEC final... same as above)

Teams whose season is over and are still on the bubble:
Texas A&M
St. Mary's
Creighton
Davidson

Teams that are on the bubble if they don't win their conference tournament:
Utah St.

So here's the possible outcomes. There are 30 locks representing 8 conferences (the Horizon doesn't count because their auto bid has already been handed out), so 22 at-large spots are filled assuming nobody from outside that group wins their conference tournament (a safe assumption at the moment...we'll re-evaluate should that time come). In addition, I think 7 teams can get in with wins today, leaving only 5 spots for the remaining teams. At the moment, here's the order I think the bubble teams stand in:

Texas A&M
St. Mary's
UNLV
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
San Diego St.
South Carolina
New Mexico
Minnesota
Maryland
Northwestern
Florida
Creighton
Miami
Davidson
Rhode Island

Okay, so that is a lot of options. First, let's take a look at the teams that will be IN if they win today:

Providence v. Louisville, 12 PM

Why will they be in with a win today: Beating the Big East champ will do that for you.

If they don't win: Probably in. Villanova was in a similar situation a year ago and a first round win and quarterfinal exit in the Big East tourney was good enough. Plus, the way the bubble's shaping out, there aren't too many good fringe candidates and the Friars have been playing as well as most of them recently.

Boston College v. Virginia, 9 PM

Why: Two big conference wins (UNC and Duke) and good overall finish in conference should be enough for the committee to look past some really bad losses.

If they don't win: Things get dicey, because that's now three excuses the committee has to leave them out (Harvard, @ NC State are the other two). My gut says they'd still be okay, but they probably shouldn't risk it. Just take care of business tonight.

Michigan v. Iowa, 2:30 PM

Why: Big out of conference wins and good conference finish will be enough to get them in barring a major collapse.

If they don't win: Also dicey... that would be two losses to Iowa and the Wolverines really haven't done a ton to separate themselves in conference play. Not that that's a bad thing (mediocre in the Big Ten this year = tournament bid) but it is a bad thing if they've got some baggage for the committee to look at.

Penn State v. Indiana, 5 PM

Why: Wins against the top three teams in the conference and an overall record of .500 vs. the RPI Top 50 will be plenty.

If they don't win: I still think their resume is good enough, but a loss to IU? That would look AWFUL. That, plus the loss to Iowa, doesn't leave a good taste in the committee's mouth. And unlike others, they did all their work in conference, which may lead some to question the validity of the Big Ten and therefore somewhat "nullify" some of their conference wins. Okay, that's a stretch, but I feel like Penn State's one of those teams people will make reasons to leave out. And if you lose to IU, you really only have yourself to blame.

Arizona v. Arizona St., 3 PM

Why: Win against a ranked team will add to their list of good wins and should push them over the edge.

If they don't win: The Wildcats have been very up and down this year, and while they have plenty of good wins, the losses are really starting to pile up. 13 losses is a lot for any bubble team to have. They might be a victim of someone like Utah St. losing their conference tourney or a borderline tournament team making a power conference tournament push.

Oklahoma St. v. Oklahoma, 7 PM

Why: Beat a top 10 team? Yea, that should be enough.

If they don't win: Probably still good. No shame in losing to OU this year, and they still have very good computer numbers and good wins now to back them up. I can't see the Cowboys getting turned down at this point (although they're not a lock just yet).

Dayton v. Richmond, 9 PM

Why: The win won't do much, but the Flyers just need to avoid a major collapse.

If they don't win: They'd be begging the committee to leave them out with all the awful conference losses, but I still think they'd be okay. Wins against Marquette, Xavier, and Auburn (actually starting to look like a decent win) would stack up well vs. the rest of the bubble. But it would be a lot closer than the Flyers would like.

So what does all this mean? Not much. In 4 of these games, teams are favorites and should get in with a win. The other 3 include bubble teams that are underdogs. But the bubble is still very fluid and there's still time for teams to make tournament cases. And, unlike some other sports, if you keep winning, no committee can decide your fate. One of the many reasons college basketball is awesome.

Conference Tournament Central

Big East:
March 10-14

First Round: Tues, March 10
9 - Cincinnati
16 - DePaul

12 - Georgetown
13 - St. John's

10 - Notre Dame
15 - Rutgers

11 - Seton Hall
14 - South Florida

2nd Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Providence
Cincy/DePaul

5 - Marquette
G-Town/St. John's

7 - West Virginia
ND/Rutgers

6 - Syracuse
Seton Hall/USF

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Louisville
Providence/Cincy/DePaul

4 - Villanova
Marquette/G-Town/St. John's

2 - Pittsburgh
WVU/ND/Rutgers

3 - UConn
Syracuse/Seton Hall/USF

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: Pitt, obviously. They're my overall #1 and my current pick to win it all.
Darkhorse: Syracuse. They're good enough to beat anyone in this conference. If they manage to bring it on every night, they can potentially win this thing. Now, beating UConn, Louisville, and Pitt three days in a row is a tall order for any team in the nation... I'm guessing we're not going to see a major upset here. One of the top three will win it.

ACC:
March 12-15

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
8 - Virginia Tech
9 - Miami

5 - Clemson
12 - Georgia Tech

7 - Maryland
10 - NC State

6 - Boston College
11 - Virginia

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
1 - North Carolina
VT/Miami

4 - Florida State
Clemson/GT

2 - Wake Forest
Maryland/NC State

3- Duke
BC/Virginia

Semifinals: Sat, March 14th
Finals: Sun, March 15th

Favorite: UNC. Most talented team in the conference and possibly in the nation, I feel like they've flown under the radar somewhat due to all the attention Pitt/UConn/Louisville have gotten recently and their inability to secure the #1 ranking (which they might tomorrow). But this team is still very, very dangerous, especially when they want to play D.
Darkhorse: Clemson. We've already seen what this team can do against Duke... when you can full-court press and create turnovers, and you've got Trevor Booker, you can compete with anyone in the conference. Also look out for BC, VT, and Maryland, all of whom have picked up big wins in the regular season and all could use a good win or two to lock up their tournament status.

Big Ten:
March 12-15

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
8 - Minnesota
9 - Northwestern

7 - Michigan
10 - Iowa

6 - Penn State
11 - Iowa

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
1 - Michigan State
Minnesota/Northwestern

4 - Wisconsin
5 - Ohio State

2 - Illinois
Michigan/Iowa

3 - Purdue
Penn State/Iowa

Semifinals: Sat, March 14th
Finals: Sun, March 15th

Favorite: Michigan State. They've been the most consistent team in the conference by far, they're an excellent rebounding team, they're athletic and agressive on defense... they've been sluggish at times this season but so has everyone in the conference. They're the best this year.
Darkhorse: Everyone. Seriously. Eight teams could end up winning this thing. And a ninth, Northwestern, is capable of beating pretty much anyone. I wouldn't be surprised to see some low seeds advancing to the semis and finals. This conference has been pretty even all season long and I don't expect the tournament to be any different.

Pac-10
March 11-14

First Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Oregon State
9 - Stanford

7 - Washington State
10 - Oregon

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Washington
OSU/Stanford

4 - Arizona State
5 - Arizona

2 - UCLA
WSU/Oregon

3 - Cal
4 - USC

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: Washington. I could go in a number of directions here, as both Arizona State and UCLA are potential choices here. However, I'll go with the conference winner and most consistent team in Pac-10 play this season.
Darkhorse: If Arizona State counts at the 4 seed, I'll go with them. If not, I'll take the team that they play... Arizona. The Wildcats are blessed with potential NBA lottery picks at several positions and are desperate for wins. They could run off a few wins or so and take this thing.

Big 12:
March 11-14

First Round: Wed, March 11th
8 - Nebraska
9 - Baylor

5 - Texas
12 - Colorado

7 - Oklahoma State
10 - Iowa State

6 - Texas A&M
11 - Texas Tech

Quarterfinals: Thurs, March 12th
1 - Kansas
Nebraska/Baylor

4 - Kansas State
Texas/Colorado

2 - Oklahoma
OSU/ISU

3 - Missouri
Texas A&M/Texas Tech

Semifinals: Fri, March 13th
Finals: Sat, March 14th

Favorite: OU. Still the best team in the conference when Griffin is healthy.
Darkhorse: Missouri doesn't count as a darkhorse anymore, so I'll take Texas A&M. They've been playing well recently, beating some good teams (Texas, Missouri) and playing with the urgency a bubble team should be playing with.

SEC:
March 12th-15th

First Round: Thurs, March 12th
W5 - Ole Miss
E4 - Kentucky

E6 - Georgia
W3 - Mississippi St.

E5 - Vanderbilt
W4 - Alabama

W6 - Arkansas
E3 - Florida

Quarterfinals: Fri, March 13th
W1 - LSU
Ole Miss/Kentucky

E2 - South Carolina
Georgia/Miss St.

E1 - Tennessee
Vanderbilt/Alabama

W2 - Auburn
Arkansas/Florida

Favorite: LSU. They've been the best of this incredibly mediocre conference.
Darkhorse: Just like the Big Ten, anyone could win this thing, but since I'm not going to use that as a cop-out answer again, I'll pick Kentucky. Because anytime you have a guy like Jodie Meeks that can score 40 on anyone, you have to be a somewhat dangerous team.

Other conferences:
Atlantic 10: March 11-14
Xavier is the favorite again after winning their 3rd conference title in a row, but look out for Dayton, who beat them earlier this year, and Rhode Island, who is in desperation mode after losing to UMass on Saturday.

Mountain West: March 11-14
One of the few conferences where, after the regular season, we still don't know a lot about the overall bubble outlook. Utah is in for sure, and BYU will probably get in due to being the regular season conference champ, but what will we do with UNLV? The tournament's on their floor, so they have the best chance to win, but if they don't, their resume is very, very average. And what about San Diego State? These two play each other again in the 4/5 matchup, so one team's staying home for sure after Thursday.

Other small conference news:
-Northern Iowa won the MVC tournament and the auto bid, beating Illinois State 60-57 in OT. This team could give some major conference team fits in their first round matchup with their slow, deliberate style of play.
-Siena survived their semifinal matchup and now face Niagara on Monday for the MAAC conference champ. Does Siena get in if they lose a close one? They might be difficult to turn down given the weakness of the bubble this year.
-Speaking of small conference bubble teams, Davidson was ousted from the Southern conference tournament in the semis, losing to College of Charleston again. The Wildcats have a win over West Virginia, which, to be honest, is better than some bubble teams so far (I'm looking at you, South Carolina). And the allure of Stephen Curry might be enough to make the committee include Davidson. Either way, it's going to be a VERY long week for the Wildcats.
-Gonzaga pounded Santa Clara in their semifinal game and now wait the winner of the St. Mary's/Portland game for the WCC championshi on Monday.
-And it's 1 vs. 2 on Monday for the Colonial championship... VCU vs. George Mason. Should be a very entertaining game to watch, and the winner's going to be a tough out in the tournament.

State of the Bubble - End of Regular Season edition

Okay, so conference play is almost over, and the conference tourneys are beginning. Speaking of which, we get to punch some tournament bids tonight! VMI takes on Radford at 4 PM for the Big South championship, E. Tennessee St. vs. Jacksonville at 6 PM for the A-Sun championship, Moorehead St. goes up against Austin Peay for the Ohio Valley championship at 8 PM. As for the big boys, here's my bubble outlook. First, the teams that are a lock to make the tourney:

Locks:
Xavier
UNC
Duke
Clemson
Wake
Florida St
Kansas
OU
Missouri
Texas
UConn
Louisville
Pitt
Marquette
Villanova
Syracuse
Michigan St.
Illinois
Purdue
Ohio St
Washington
Arizona St.
Cal
UCLA
Utah
BYU

These teams are in for all intents and purposes, and barring a major collapse, this should not shrink between now and tournament time. Bubble teams should root for these teams to win their conference tourney because if the tournament winners come from outside this pool, these teams will all get at-large bids and will take up one of the spots. 26 - 7 conference champs (assuming they all come from this group) = 19 at-large bids LOCKED UP

In addition, if these teams do not win their conference tourney they will get in as an at large:
LSU
Gonzaga
Memphis
Butler

Bubble teams need to root for these guys to win their conference because if not, they will take an at-large spot. That means there could be as many as 15 and as few as 11 at large spots available. Here's the teams I think have a somewhat legit shot at getting a bid:
Dayton
Rhode Island
BC
VT
Maryland
Miami
Oklahoma St.
Texas A&M
West Virginia
Providence
Penn St.
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
New Mexico
San Diego St.
UNLV
Arizona
South Carolina
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
St. Mary's

That's 23 teams. Also, if these teams do NOT win their conference tourney they'll be in the at-large pool on the bubble:
Siena
Davidson
Utah St.
Creighton

Bubble teams need to also root for these schools to win their conference tourney so there will be less teams on the bubble.

Here's a list of every bubble game being played today and my assessment of how bad the team needs the win:

Duquesne @ Dayton, 8 PM
Dayton, at this point, obviously can't afford another loss to a team outside the RPI top 100. In my book, Dayton's probably good at this point, but a win here and a few wins in the A-10 tourney would lock them up for sure.

UMass @ Rhode Island, 2 PM
URI needs all the wins they can get, including this one today. Some good play in the A-10 has put the Rams back on the bubble, but they really need to at least beat either Dayton or Xavier, which probably means get to the A-10 final. If they lost in the A-10 final to Xavier in a close game, would the committee put them in? It would require a few epic collapses by some bubble teams but after the losses on Upset Wednesday (that's my nickname for the Wednesdays of this season), I wouldn't completely dismiss it.

Georgia Tech @ BC, 12 PM
The Eagles can't afford another ugly loss to go along with Harvard and @ NC State. This win would at least put them above .500 in the ACC, which is good, and they have two major cards to play in wins @ UNC and Duke. As long as BC takes care of business here and in the tourney, they should be in.

Maryland @ Virginia, 3:30 PM
Another team struggling to stay above .500 in the ACC. If they can take care of business here, they'll get to .500, but how much will that help them? They're 4-9 vs. RPI top 50, which isn't bad, and they do have to North Carolina win and the Michigan State win way back in November. They also have an ugly loss to Morgan State as well. This is one of those teams I could see falling in the ACC quarters and getting left out, and then I have to hear Dickie V complain about why Maryland didn't make it in for the next 5 years (like he does about Virginia Tech last year).

NC State @ Miami, 12 PM
The U is out, for all intents and purposes, unless they have a big time ACC tourney run in them. Then again, this team did come within 7 points of sweeping Wake Forest, Duke, and UNC, so they could very well get it done. My opinion... I would NOT want to see McClinton on the floor against my Boilers anytime soon. Miami didn't take care of business in season, though, and maybe if even one of the OT losses (Virginia Tech, @ NC State, @ Duke) had gone their way, they'd be in a much better position right now.

Oklahoma St. @ OU, 3:30 PM
One of the biggest games of the day and a chance for the Cowboys to pretty much punch their ticket to the tournament. There's no guarantees, but with great computer rankings and some decent wins to back up their resume (6 straight Big 12 wins including one over Texas), a win over a top 5 team would probably be good enough to push them over the top. Take this one, win a game in the Big 12 quarters, and they're as good as in.

Missouri @ Texas A&M, 2 PM
Another one of those Big 12 teams that has a chance to put a stamp on their resume today. The Aggies also beat Texas and are also making a run on the back half of their conference slate, by far the easier half. They also don't have any bad losses. The thing that holds me back with them is, they didn't beat any of the teams they played on the earlier half. In fact, if this team played ND's schedule right now, wouldn't they be in the same position as the Irish? Would they not have lost every important Big East game they played and be off the bubble at the moment? But as it stands, a win here would put them at .500 in Big 12 play and another good win in the tourney could be enough.

Louisville @ West Virginia, 9 PM
A lack of a marquee win is holding me back from locking up the Mountaineers. This would count as a marquee win, but even if they don't get it West Virginia is still in good shape. A top 8 finish in the Big East means one bye and an easy 2nd round matchup, meaning they should be able to get to the quarters easily which should be plenty to get them in.

Providence
The Friars are done with their regular season. Providence is 10-8 in Big East play, but a lot of that was against the bottom half of the conference. Pitt and Syracuse are really the only two big wins they have to stand on. To make matters worse, they finished 8th in the Big East, so their quarterfinal matchup is probably going to be against UConn or Louisville, which will be difficult. This team reminds me of Villanova last year who was in a similar position. Nova got in, so that's good news for Providence. The tourney will probably make or break this team.

Penn St. @ Iowa, 2 PM
Contrary to other bubble teams, I feel like Penn State can afford a loss here... sort of. Beating the top 3 teams in your conference will do that. I know Iowa is awful, but to be honest, they've probably done enough to get in so far, and teams are bound to lose to bad teams in the conference tourneys. Okay, they probably can't afford it... but win here and they're probably locked up.

Michigan @ Minnesota, 12 PM
Many are saying this is an elimination game. I refuse to believe so, since both have very good out of conference wins and teams are bound to get upset today and in the conference, but let's look at it like that for fun anyway. Michigan arguably needs this win more, because they are currently below .500 in conference play, but Minnesota also doesn't have as many quality wins out of conference as Michigan, and when it comes down to it... conference record is just that: a record. Both teams are pretty even as far as conference play, so it could come down to this game... unless, or course, other teams fall apart, and remember, the majority of teams in this list are getting in.

New Mexico @ Wyoming, 3:30 PM
The Lobos are currently in a three way tie for first in the Mountain West. They split both of their meetings vs. the other two teams (BYU and Utah, both of whom are locked up in this projection), so the tiebreaker isn't settled there. In fact, I'm not sure how this is settled, so New Mexico would probably just be smart to win today. BYU plays Air Force, one of the lucky few teams that hasn't won a tournament game, and Utah gets TCU, also near the bottom of the conference, so New Mexico has the hardest game of anyone. As for resume, the MWC champion would hold a lot of clout in terms of at large notoriety, but for all the teams on the bubble right now in the MWC, the Lobos have the worst argument resume wise, with a couple of bad losses early on and no real non conference wins to speak of. Probably should win the conference tournament just to be safe.

UNLV @ San Diego St., 10 PM
UNLV has two big things going for them. One, they beat Louisville, which is one of the best wins of anyone on the bubble so far, and two, the conference tournament is on their floor, which always helps. Now for the bad news: The Rebels have some BAD losses in conference and need to win this one (which is no cakewalk by any means) to just get to 10 wins in conference. Outside of the Louisville win, they beat Arizona but that's about it. UNLV needs to win the conference tourney just to be safe, but if they don't, does their resume stack up against the power conference teams on the bubble? It's going to be close, that's for sure.

Stanford @ Arizona, 7:30 PM
Arizona badly needs this game, as the losses are beginning to pile up. Below .500 in the Pac-10 would be a major blow to their resume, but wins over Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington, and UCLA are really, really hard to ignore. Plenty of teams have gotten in on far less than that. Their inconsistency could be their downfall though. You look at losses like @ USC and @ Washington St. and you think, okay, those aren't that bad, but there's SO many of them... @ Texas A&M, home vs. UAB, @ UNLV, @ Stanford... these are all understandable losses but it shows how inconsistent Arizona has been over the course of the season. In any case, this win would keep them at .500 in conference play, and as long as they avoid 7th in the conference, they'll get a bye to the quarters and get a good matchup there... the door's open if the Wildcats want to take it.

South Carolina @ Georgia, 2 PM
To be honest, I'm not sure why the Gamecocks are getting so much attention. They can get to 10 wins with a win today, but that's not a great record in such a bad conference, and at this point they have zero RPI top 50 wins. If they can get to the SEC semis that might be enough, but I can't see a route to the tourney that doesn't involve beating Tennessee or LSU, which probably means SEC finals. Much of their resume has been built up on hype IMO.

Kentucky @ Florida, 2 PM
Now HERE's an elimination game, as I can almost guarantee you the loser of this one is done. But what about the winner? They'll be 9-7 in conference, but there really aren't any good wins to speak of for either team (West Virginia and sweeping Tennessee is pretty much all Kentucky has at this point, and Florida has Washington back in November when they were bad and South Carolina and that's it) and both have some awful losses in conference to boot. I can't really see either getting in without at least making the SEC finals or beating Tennessee or LSU.

St. Mary's
This is pretty much the most interesting case of the season. First off, they lost their best player, Patty Mills, for a good portion of the conference season and both Gonzaga games. In essence, that means with Patty Mills they essentially have one loss. BUT their best win with Mills in the lineup was Providence (N), which really isn't that great. They lost to UTEP (N), but that could be worse and let's face it... it's not as bad as a lot of these teams on the bubble. To confuse matters more, the Gaels actually have another regular season game left on Friday, March 13th (WCC conference play is over), and it's a makeup game against Eastern Washington that was supposed to take place earlier in the year. But that's after the WCC tourney finishes up, so will it actually have any effect on anything? Here's my assessment... they get a bye all the way to the WCC semis due to finishing 2nd in conference. Win that game, beat Gonzaga, you're in. Lose in the semis or lose to Gonzaga in the finals... I don't know. I think with Mills they're one of the 34 best at-large teams in the nation, but I have no evidence to back this up. Thankfully I'm not on the committee.

Tomorrow

VT @ Florida State, 2 PM
Huge game for the Hokies, as they would like to avoid a 7-9 conference record. Good wins are to be found on their resume, including Wake Forest and Clemson, but they didn't beat a few of the ACC bubble teams they're competing against. They're 3-7 vs. the RPI Top 50, but that's somewhat decieving, since that includes a win over Miami (who is not one of the 50 best teams in the game) and doesn't include a loss to Maryland (who probably isn't one of the 50 best teams, but they're in better shape than Miami). The Hokies still have some work to do.

Alabama @ Tennessee, 12 PM
I can't really see the Vols getting left out at this point, although they certainly shouldn't push their luck here. But with the amount of teams collapsing around them, an SEC East title, an 11-5 record in conference, and some good out of conference wins should be more than enough.

Indiana @ Wisconsin, 7 PM
Wisconsin, on the other hand, can't afford to lose at home to one of the worst power conference schools in the game. They didn't do much out of conference (besides beat Virginia Tech on the road... that could be the single most important bubble matchup of the season) and they had that horrible stretch in the Big Ten, but they recovered quickly and beat many of the teams they lost to earlier in the Big Ten slate. They also swept Michigan, which helps. The Badgers are in that logjam fighting for a first round bye, and they could really use it, because they haven't exactly been stellar against the bottom of the conference this year. A win in the Big Ten quarters would be huge.

Games to Watch - Week of Feb 2nd

Hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl last night... or at least the commercials anyway. The commercials were a bit of a letdown overall (is it just me, or does it feel like everyone's trying too hard with their Super Bowl commercial? Just find something funny and shoot it) but luckily the game wasn't. I personally would've liked to see Warner and Fitzgerald win a title, but I have nothing against the Steelers, who are probably the best overall francBlogger: Chi Town Balla's College B-Ball Central - Create Posthise in the NFL now. And now to college basketball... there's plenty of important games to get to this week, including a HUGE showdown in the Big East on Monday,

Mon, Feb. 2nd

UConn @ Louisville - Remember when we were questioning whether or not Louisville would make the tournament? Yea, not so much anymore. Safe to say winner of this game is in line for a #1 seed? Lousville's problems seem lightyears away considering the progress they've made in Big East play this year, and the Huskies should already be in line for a #1 seed. The biggest question for me in this game is: how will Earl Clark play on a big stage? He's been huge for them during Big East play but didn't contribute much in most of their big non-conference matchups. Also, how will the guard play of Louisville hold up against UConn's quick, deep backcourt? Should be fun to watch.

Kansas @ Baylor - The Jayhawks' first real Big 12 test comes tonight in Lubbock. Some say Kansas is the 2nd best team in the conference now... although Texas has fallen as of late, I'm still not ready to say that yet. I think someone other than Aldrich and Collins needs to step up as a consistent 3rd option on the team. Either way, Kansas has the firepower to handle Baylor's plethora of guards, and Baylor has had struggles of their own lately.

Tues, Feb. 3rd

Purdue @ Ohio St. - Another big road test for the Boilers. We've been playing very well lately, and with Michigan St. falling again at home, the Big Ten door is wide open. The Buckeyes have traditionally given us trouble at their place, and this team has not backed down after the loss of Lighty. Should be another tight game in the Big Ten.

South Carolina @ Florida - How big does that last-second layup look now? The Gamecocks are actually making an SEC run, and with the win over Baylor in their pockets, not only are they in line for a tournament bid, but it's not too farfetched to suggest they're the best team in the SEC. Florida could really, really use this game, not just to stay in the SEC race but to keep their bid safe as well.

San Diego St. @ UNLV - Both teams need all the wins they can get in a crowded Mountain West. Winner sits atop the MWC with Utah.

Wed, Feb. 4th

WVU @ Syracuse - Both teams have hit a bit of a rough patch recently and could use a win. Syracuse, especially, to stop the bleeding and save their tournament seed (sort of).

Wake Forest @ Miami - What started as a minor scratch has turned into a bloody mess for the Hurricanes. Back to back losses to NC State and Maryland put this team at 3-5 in the ACC and basically require this team to win one of their next three to stop the bleeding. Problem? Next three are this game, @ Duke, and UNC. If they lose all 3, Miami will have to win out just to get back to .500 in conference. Is their non-conference strong enough to survive a below .500 in conference finish? With just a win @ Kentucky to back them up, the answer is: highly unlikely. This is what happens when you don't win games you're supposed to.

Utah @ TCU - Important road game for the Utes to keep pace with whoever wins the Tuesday night game.

Villanova @ Providence - The Friars are 6-3 in conference play and now have a marquee win (Syracuse) to back it up. Here's another good home opportunity for a Providence team that's doing everything they can to erase the memory of a very sub-par non-conference slate.

Tennessee @ Arkansas - Must win for the Razorbacks?

Minnesota @ Michigan St. - Well, it doesn't get any easier for the Spartans. After losing at home to Northwestern and Penn St., it's safe to say teams aren't afraid to go to East Lansing anymore. Better bring your A game, because the Boilers are breathing down your necks in conference.

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma - The Aggies could really, really use a win to stand out right now.

Duke @ Clemson - The Tigers used a furious 2nd half comeback to come up with a humongous road win at Virginia Tech and now get Duke at home. Luckily, the Tigers took care of business already so this is more icing on the cake for them than anything.

Missouri @ Texas - The Longhorns could use this win to stop the bleeding. Not saying this team is going to fall apart or anything, but a few losses can begin to pile upon one another very quickly in college basketball.

USC @ UCLA - Important game in the Pac-10 standings.

Thurs, Feb 5th

Penn St. @ Michigan - Out of nowhere, the Nittany Lions begin to make a run in conference and are only one game out of first place midway through conference play. Well, if they want to run with the big boys, gotta get it done every night, and this is the kind of game that a team competing for a Big Ten title has to win. Meanwhile, the losses are beginning to add up for the Wolverines, and if they don't get back on track soon, the two wins over UCLA and Duke at the beginning of the year will be wasted.

Illinois @ Wisconsin - I don't think I need to tell you how badly Wisconsin needs this win.

Washington @ Cal - Yep, the honeymoon's over for the Cal Bears. Time to start winning basketball games again.

Arizona St. @ Oregon - Okay, you don't have to make a big deal of this, Arizona St. We know you lost a couple of games you shouldn't have. Just put away the 0-9 team quietly and nobody gets hurt.

Gonzaga @ Portland - So I lied. Maybe you want to watch this WCC game too.

Fri, Feb. 6th

Marquette @ South Florida - So South Florida's actually given teams some good games in the Big East this year. This one should be a blowout, but still...

Sat, Feb. 7th

Cincinnati @ Georgetown - The Hoyas had better win this game. Or else we've got problems. As if we didn't have any already.

Syracuse @ Villanova - This has pretty much become commonplace in the Big East this year. A ranked matchup. It's like they don't even matter anymore... well, they do, but you get the idea.

Miami @ Duke - Game two of the three game stretch from hell for the U.

ND @ UCLA - You have a must win game on the road vs. a top 15 opponent? Sucks to be you, ND!

Michigan @ UConn - Another big time non-conference matchup for the Wolverines. Not coming at the greatest of times for them, but you gotta take them how you get them.

Florida St. @ Clemson - Important game for the Seminoles if they want to be taken seriously as a tournament contender.

Minnesota @ Ohio St. - After Patty Mills' injury, Ohio St. is no longer the most interesting bubble case due to injury. That, and Ohio St.'s probably playing well enough without Lighty that it won't matter.

Arizona St. @ Oregon St. - The fact that this is actually going to be a competitive game shows how far the Beavers' program has come in one year.

Memphis @ Gonzaga - A good non-conference matchup for two teams that could use some tournament competition late in their seasons. Because they're not going to get it from their conferences.

Sunday, Feb. 8th

Purdue @ Illinois - The end of our big road stretch, and probably the most important game. I really don't want to get swept by the Illini and have that waiting behind us in the Big Ten standings. The good thing is, we probably should have won the game at home, and that was without our best defender (Kramer). One defender won't make as big a difference against Illinois as it would against other teams, because they spread the ball so well, but I also think we're a much different team offensively from first Illinois game. I think we're up to the challenge.

BC @ Wake Forest - I keep going back and forth on this Boston College team. They beat UNC, but lost to Harvard, but now they're 5-3 in ACC play, but it's been mostly against ACC bottom-feeders, etc. I think they'll be right on the bubble by the end of the season. Of course, that is unless they win this game.

Washington @ Stanford - Another bubble team barely hanging on and in desperate need of a win. Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that I'm not refering to Washington?

Games to Watch - Week of Jan 26th

Monday, Jan 26th

Marquette @ ND - Things are starting to go from "Well, we're not the greatest of teams, but we'll get a decent tournament seed anyway" to "We're not in any real danger of missing the tourney, but it would be nice to get a good win in every once in a while" for the Irish. Here's a good opportunity against a Marquette team that is somewhat unproven in conference and doesn't have anyone to adequately match up with Harangody. And it would be advisable for ND to stay above .500 in conference play as much as possible.

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma St. - The Sooners are really starting to look like a dominant team, to the point where they could compete for a National Championship should things go their way. We all know what Blake Griffin can do, but it's been the emergence of Willie Warren and, over the past few weeks, Austin Johnson, which has carried this team to the level they're at. Meanwhile, the Cowboys survived a must-win over Nebraska in OT and will be hungry and desperate for a good win. A & M was in a similar position a week ago against OU and the Sooners prevailed. Will it be the same this time?

Cal St. Bakersfield @ Oregon St. - This is mainly my way of giving a shout-out to the Beavers, who won back-to-back conference games last week and actually look like a somewhat difficult matchup for Pac-10 teams now. Considering where they were a year ago, this is a very good step.

Tuesday, Jan 27th

Miami (Fl) @ NC State - Miami can use all the conference wins they can get right now. NC State can use all the wins they can get, period.

BC @ Maryland - What happens when you pick up one big-time win but fail to get anything else worth considering on your tournament resume. Fair to say loser is done?

Texas @ Baylor - Well, I would hope the Bears have some pride and make a game out of this after getting embarrassed vs. OU. I understand OU's got Griffin and he's going to tear you up inside, but come on... at least UAB made a game out of it in a similar position. Either way, this should be an easier matchup for Baylor and it's at home.

Purdue @ Wisconsin - This game scares me because Wisconsin is always tough at home and this team will be VERY desperate for a win. The Badgers are a buzzer beater at Virginia Tech away from having absolutely nothing on their tournament profile, and now that they're below .500 in conference play, their tournament bid is looking really, really shaky right now.

BYU @ Utah - The Utes were up 8 @ UNLV but fell apart in the 2nd half and lost by 10. That was a win they really could have used, but for now they'll have to move on to play the preseason conference favorites, who have slipped up a few times in early MWC play. Despite their loss to UNLV, this conference is still anyone's race and the MWC regular season championship is likely good enough for an at-large bid. Should be some interesting basketball out west.

Wednesday, Jan 28th

Michigan @ Ohio St. - I understand it's a football rivalry, but it's a shame these teams are done playing each other by late January. Either way, the home team prevailed last time (Michigan) so Ohio State will be looking to take out two birds with one stone by picking up a good conference win and defending their home turf. And beating a rival. So three birds with one stone. Not bad

Duke @ Wake Forest - So much for a #1 vs. #2 matchup. Whatever. Anyway, Virginia Tech gave Wake fits offensively and defensively in the 2nd half of that game on Wednesday, and Duke has the tools to do the same to the Deacs this Wednesday. Maybe if Wake realizes Duke has no interior presence on either side of the ball, their offense will be more consistent. I still like Duke in this matchup though. This is the most athletic, experienced team Duke has had in a few years and they'll take it to the youngsters.

Pitt @ Villanova - Maybe this week voters will realize Nova shouldn't just be in the polls by default and should actually get a good win or two before being ranked.

Temple @ Rhode Island - This could be a matchup between the 3rd and 4th best teams in the A-10. Yea... they're getting two in this year max

Syracuse @ Providence - How about a Friars upset to throw some real chaos into the bubble picture? Such a weak non-conference resume, but how can you ignore 6-2 in the Big East right now? Should be interesting to watch.

LSU @ Tennessee - The Tigers are a very interesting case. They could go 24-7 and not make the tournament. Yea, 12-4 in the SEC should be good enough, but there's NOTHING on the non-conference end after falling short to Xavier. And if they don't get wins like this, what are they going to have to back up that lofty record? Meanwhile, Tennessee's seed is plummeting faster than anyone else's in the country right now and they really could use a good home win to get back on track.

UNC @ Florida St. - After Virginia Tech's emergence, the Seminoles have some competition for the 6th spot in the ACC... and there may not be room for 7 (although with the way the bubble's looking right now, there could be). This is a tough one to get, but after your competition wins back-to-back games against ranked opponents on the road, you have to do something to look good.

TCU @ San Diego St. - More MWC fun. Because anyone could win that conference right now.

Thursday, Jan 29th

Clemson @ Virginia Tech - Speaking of the Hokies... how about we make it 3 for 3?

Washington @ Arizona - Wait, the Huskies are the ones in prime position for the NCAAs? And the Wildcats are the ones falling apart in conference? Are you sure that's right?

Washington St. @ Arizona St. - If only because watching the end of the UCLA-Washington St. game was as much fun as I've had watching an underdog try to take down a big name school in a while. They are passionate for their basketball up in Washington. Too bad this one's on the road

Illinois @ Minnesota - Disaster avoided when Minnesota barely escaped IU with a victory. Now the Illini come to town, and they're playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten right now. A win would do well to keep Minnesota afloat on the bubble for the time being.

Alabama @ Arkansas - Still waiting for that first Razorback SEC win... and waiting...

San Diego @ Portland - Ah, my trendy mid-major pick of the year... you have disappointed me so... no respect shall be given to you on this blog. In fact, I'm rooting for Portland. What now, Toreros?

Cal @ UCLA - Will the real Cal please stand up? Is it the ones who started off on a tear in the beginning of Pac-10 season? Or the mediocre bubble team that's played the rest of the year? I would really like to know.

Stanford @ USC - Speaking of teams with gaudy records that probably won't get in the tournament... yes, I'm looking at you, Stanford. Maybe you should start beating teams like Oregon State (and yes, I did applaud and insult Oregon State in the same blog post. Here's how I reconcile it: what the Beavers did was great. But in the end, tournament teams should still beat them. Simple as that)

St. Mary's @ Gonzaga - One of only two WCC games you need to care about. The other being Gonzaga @ St. Mary's

Friday, January 30th

Valparaiso @ Butler - How about it? The Bulldogs have flown basically under the radar to an 18-1 record and continue to dominate the Horizon League (and picked up a win over fellow mid-major Xavier). Wasn't this supposed to be a down year for them too? So much for that

Saturday, Jan 31st

West Virginia @ Louisville - The Cardinals look to keep it perfect in the Big East with a win on Saturday. And unlike some other undefeated Big East teams (cough Marquette cough) they've actually beaten some decent opponents.

ND @ Pitt - The Irish just finished a three game stretch against 3 of the top 15 teams in the nation, two on the road. What do they get for their troubles? Another four games that include 3 more top 15 teams, including Louisville again. There is no mercy in the Big East.

Michigan @ Purdue - Michigan is one of the more difficult teams to figure out due to the strength of their wins (UCLA, Duke) and the weakness of some of their losses (@ Maryland, @ Penn St., down by 20 at one point @ IU). All in all, this team seems to be shaping up as an interesting bubble case and could really use a win on Saturday. Then again, so could my Boilers, who are looking to keep pace with Michigan St. in the Big Ten title race.

Oklahoma St. @ Texas A&M - The Aggies need this win like no other right now.

Georgetown @ Marquette - Well, this is certainly shaping up to be a marquee day for the Big East, isn't it? Time for the Golden Eagles to put their money where their mouth... er, record, is.

South Carolina @ Kentucky - It's not a good thing if you're a power conference and your conference leader, the only undefeated team in conference play, lost to VMI.

Stanford @ UCLA - The Cardinal are beginning to pay for their weak non-conference schedule. You gotta take advantage of the opportunities you get when you go that route... and with so few of those opportunities, you can't be picky.

UNC @ NC State - This has to be somewhat fierce of a rivalry, right? And NC State technically is still alive as a bubble team, right? Maybe that one was pushing it too far.

New Mexico @ Utah - Because anyone can win that conference right now. And yes, I know I used that argument earlier in the post. But when over half the teams in the conference have a share of first, really, ANYONE can win the conference.

Providence @ UConn - Big week for the Friars, with two shots at marquee wins. Get one of them and we're talking.

UNLV @ Air Force - Because anyone can win... well, not Air Force. But you get the point.

Arkansas @ LSU - The sad thing is, the winner of the SEC West might not even get a tournament bid. I'm still amazed at the mediocrity of this conference. At least last year teams like Miss St. emerged and made a run. I'm not sure any of these teams are going to do it this year.

Washington @ Arizona St. - The Huskies can make it a clean sweep of the Pac-10 title contenders. And establish themselves as a contender, if they haven't already.

Baylor @ Missouri - Important game for both teams to add more insurance to what is likely tournament bids for both school.

Virginia Tech @ BC - The Eagles need wins, and need them fast. Luckily for them, Virginia Tech just became a legitimate victory, so here's a chance handed to the Eagles on their doorstep. I'd take it if I were them.

Miami (Fl) @ Maryland - Ditto for both of these teams.

Florida @ Tennessee - Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2008-2009 SEC representatives in the NCAA Tournament!

Cal @ USC - Because you need something to do at 11:30 PM at night, seeing as it's uber-lame to go to bed at 11:30 on a Saturday night. Or something like that

Sunday, Feb. 1st

Penn St. @ Michigan St. - The Nittany Lions are currently over .500 in the Big Ten. Their non-conference resume isn't special, but they've got some decent conference wins. The profile would look just a bit stronger if they found a way to get this one done.

St. Joseph's @ Dayton - Important game for St. Joe's to gain national respect and for Dayton to retain it.

Boise St. @ Houston Baptist - Only because Gordon Watt, who is leading Houston Baptist at 17.6 pts per game, used to play for Purdue. That's all I got, sorry.

Bubble Watch - Jan 23rd

The undefeateds are no more. Wake Forest fell Wednesday at the hands of Virginia Tech, 78-71, meaning there are no longer any undefeated teams in the country. Was I surprised the young Deacs lost? No. Was I surprise it was to an unranked team notorious for blowing late leads over the past few years (Virginia Tech)? Yes, and while the Hokies still have plenty of work to do in ACC play, they got the marquee win they desperately needed, and on the road to boot.

Anyway, there's still plenty of question marks, and new teams like Northwestern and Virginia Tech that could make some bubble noise, but some conferences are beginning to clear up, like the Big East. Then again, others, like the Big Ten, only get more confusing. Here's your outlook:

ACC

The top 5 continue to do what needs to be done to lock up tournament bids. Clemson took two hits in a week but remain in the lock category due to the fact that they were both top 10 teams. Miami (Fl) can't quite break into the lock category yet but continues to win games they should win. Will 6 get in? Virginia Tech is 3-1 in conference but had probably the worst non-conference resume of all the bubble teams. The rest are floating around .500. I'm guessing, like last year, they'll beat up on each other too much for any of them to make a serious tournament run.

In: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson


Should be in: Miami (FL)


Miami (Fl): The U was unable to pull off the upset in Chapel Hill but held off Florida St at home for an important bubble win. Good wins @ BC and Maryland mean the Canes would definitely be in at this point. I'll still hold off lock status due to lack of a marquee win. All four losses are to good teams (UConn, Ohio State without McClinton for much of the game, Clemson, UNC) but their best wins are @ Kentucky and @ St. John’s so there’s not much backing in terms of OOC wins. Virginia Tech comes into town on Sunday, fresh off an upset of the #1 team and hungry for some good conference wins, so that will not be an easy game by any means. They get Wake at home on February 4th if they want that marquee win.


Bubble teams: Florida St., VT, BC, Maryland, NC State


Florida St.: The biggest thing to happen to the Seminoles this week didn't even involve the team. Northwestern's recent upset streak now makes their loss to them seem completely reasonable. @ Miami (Fl) would've really helped boost their profile. Win over Maryland very important in terms of bubble order. Lots of sort-of-good wins (Cincinnati, Cal, Florida, Texas Tech) but no defining win. UNC comes to town next Wednesday and a win there would be big. I'd actually put this team next in the pecking order after Miami (Fl) but will that be enough to get in?



Virginia Tech: Huge, huge road victory over the #1 team in the nation puts the Hokies back in the discussion. They're 3-1 in conference right now and have another big road test @ Miami (Fl) on Sunday. Beat Virginia and Richmond but neither are the types of wins VT needs at this point. @ St. John’s is the best win to speak of so far, but they missed out on every other OOC opportunity. I still think this team is a few good wins away from seriously being in the tournament discussion but as of this point they have a legit argument for being the 6th best team in the ACC.



Boston College: Going 1-4 (with the only win being over conference bottom dweller Georgia Tech in OT) is not a good way to follow up the upset over UNC. While the loss to Harvard is particularly painful, they missed out on some chances to get additional good wins at home, which could come back to haunt them. Win @ UNC is all this team has right now. Also have that semi-ugly loss @ St. Louis. Important bubble games with NC State, Maryland, and Virginia Tech are big in the next two weeks if BC wants to get some conference separation.


Maryland: Lost what would've been a huge win @ Florida St. but at least held serve at home over Virginia. Swept the Michigan schools, But the loss to Marist really hurts. Sunday afternoon game @ Duke is a great place to make a conference statement, because the Terps really aren't doing much of anything right now.



North Carolina St.: They led Duke at the half but Henderson was too much for the Wolfpack and they fell to 1-3 in conference. All OOC losses are to likely tournament teams (@ Davidson, Marquette, Florida) but those were the only quality teams on their OOC schedule so the Wolfpack are left without a decent win to speak of. Any conference win would be good at this point since they're on the bottom of the ACC pecking order at the moment.


Big Ten


Confusion, thy name is Big Ten. The 9th and 10th place teams in the conference pulled off upsets Wednesday to wreak havoc on the conference. The Big Ten title is back up for grabs after Michigan State lost to Northwestern but it's not enough to take them off of lock status (although I will be keeping my eye on this team...). Wisconsin in particular is really struggling and in this conference, a few upsets could mean the difference between 3rd or 4th in the Big Ten and out of the tournament


In: Michigan St.

Should be in: Purdue, Illinois


Purdue: Road win over Minnesota solidifies the Boilers as a legit Big Ten title threat again and in turn makes them a very good bet for the tournament. Not a lock yet due to the difficulty of the upcoming schedule (@ Wisconsin, Michigan, @ Ohio State, @ Illinois) but 3 out of 4 of those should seal it for now.

Illinois: Okay, I believe it. This team's not going away anytime soon. Near miss @ Michigan St. and win over Ohio St. shows me the Illini are for real and that warrants a bump up a notch. Two important games are coming up on Saturday (Wisconsin) and next Thursday (@ Minnesota).


Bubble teams: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio St., Michigan, Northwestern

Wisconsin: Badgers... it may be time to hit the panic button. Three straight losses, two in OT, put Wisconsin back at .500 and for the first time this season, in serious bubble jeopardy. I understand all their losses in the non-conference were okay but there's ZERO wins to speak of (unless you count Virginia Tech at home, which I don't at the moment). The problem is, there's really nothing preventing this team from not making the tournament should they finish around .500 in conference, unlike Michigan/Minnesota who at least have good OOC wins. It's not over yet by any means but lose @ Illinois on Saturday and things become really dicey.


Minnesota: Important road win @ Wisconsin to keep the Gophers above water, but were unable to make any sort of a run at home vs. Purdue. Could they survive finishing below .500 in conference with the weak OOC schedule? Probably not, but it's looking more and more likely they'll be above .500. Back-to-back Important game next Thursday when Illinois will be in their house.

Ohio State: Well, they're staying alive for now. Win @ Michigan important and loss @ Illinois, while not great, isn't all that bad either. Remember Lighty is still out. They’ll have him back for the tournament and the list of wins with him (@ Miami, Notre Dame) is pretty impressive. Right now they're establishing themselves as 5th or 6th in the Big 10, which, combined with the Lighty situation, should be plenty to get them in

Michigan: Losses to Ohio St. and @ Penn St. put the Wolverines below .500 in conference. If they end up under .500 in Big Ten play,the wins over Duke and UCLA (neutral) are going to be a distant memory to the committee. I still think they’re a good team but they really need to start getting some consistency if they want to keep their bubble status.

Northwestern: They make the list after winning against consecutive ranked opponents. The Wildcats actually beat Florida State in the non-conference, so that helps as well. Their tournament chances? They'd have to win a ton of games in conference, and they've already lost @ Penn St. and @ Wisconsin, immediately putting them under the 8-ball. But they just won @ Michigan St., so theoretically they could beat anyone in conference, and the next 5 are all winnable games. Is it feasible this team could be 7-4 in conference when Illinois comes to town on February 12th? Either way, basketball is finally relevant in Evanston... sort of.

Big 12


Missouri's 3-1 start in conference establishes a clear top 5 and bottom 7. After that, things get interesting/mediocre. Texas A&M isn't doing anything to help their cause and their profile could really use some good wins. Kansas St. is gone due to their 0-4 start in Big 12 play. If Nebraska hadn't lost to UMBC and Iowa State, I'd consider putting 6 in, but their profile isn't good enough at this point to survive those losses.


In: OU, Texas, Kansas


Should be in: Baylor


Baylor: Survived Oklahoma St. in OT and put away Kansas St. quietly to set up an important game in Norman on Saturday. This is somewhat of a win-win situation for the Bears, as they're still solidly in even if they lose, but it would be huge to take down the conference leaders on their turf. And if not, well, Texas rolls into town on Tuesday, so they at least have a shot at getting that one as well.


Bubble teams: Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma St., Nebraska


Missouri: Important win @ Oklahoma St. will temporarily silence critics. They haven't played any of the 4 ahead of them yet, but they're solidly 5th in conference at this point and @ Nebraska isn't an entirely bad loss. Wins over Cal and USC make for a very solid non-conference season. A couple of important bubble team games coming up this week before @ Baylor and Texas back to back next Saturday and Wednesday.


Texas A&M: Maybe I called the "in the tournament" too early. I mean, I know it's @ Oklahoma and @ Kansas, but at least have a pulse against the Jayhawks. Anyway, the more I review this team's resume, the more I think it's not happening this year. Loss to Tulsa not all that good. Win over Arizona looking worse and worse as Arizona tanks, and that's about all they have on the non-conference slate. One more tough game @ Texas before a must-win vs. Texas Tech on Jan 28th.


Oklahoma St.: Well, they got neither Baylor or Missouri. They've jumped A&M in the standings but if the Aggies aren't playing well either, that doesn't really help. There's not much in the OOC portion, with their best win over Tulsa. @ Nebraska on Saturday could be a winner-stays-on-the-bubble game.


Nebraska: Led Oklahoma at the half but couldn't keep it, which is a shame because they really needed that game. Ugly losses to Maryland-Baltimore County, Oregon State, and Iowa State hurt. Their inconsistency will likely be the Cornhuskers' downfall.

Big East


9 still looking like an almost certainty. West Virginia picks up a huge road win over Georgetown to solidify their spot. Villanova still hasn't really beaten anyone but they're at least playing well enough that I'm confident they will find a way to get in. Providence really, really could've used that Marquette game but they remain out for now. And unless someone has a really good reason to keep UC on this list, I'm taking them off.

In: Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, Georgetown, ND, Marquette, Louisville


Should be in: West Virginia

West Virginia: Big road win over the Hoyas keeps this team in good shape. Avoid an upset at the hands of St. John's on Wednesday and the Mountaineers are looking very good for a bid. Uneventful non-conference resume includes wins @ Ohio State and losses to Kentucky and Davidson.

Bubble teams: Villanova, Providence, St. John's


Villanova: They led UConn for much of the game but fell short in the end. That still gives me enough confidence to believe this team will get there. Still, look at the wins: Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s, Temple. They’d be in good shape if they played in the A-10. Right now Nova’s lacking that marquee win. Just like the previous few years, Villanova could be on the bubble until the conference tournament, but things are looking better at the moment.

Providence: Decent road win over Seton Hall keeps them in the mix. Last Saturday they were in the Marquette game for much of it but were unable to come out on top. Despite that, their conference record is still holding up, and they've got another shot at home vs. Syracuse on Wednesday to make an impression. The OOC season wasn’t nice to the Friars, with a loss to Northeastern to begin the season and no marquee wins to speak of after missing on Baylor and St. Mary’s. Win over Rhode Island could be important for comparison purposes.

St. John’s: Loss to Cincinnati really, really hurts the Red Storm's case. With the difficult conference start, they needed all the wins they could get, and that was one they needed. Nothing in their non-conference resume would back up a bad conference record, but nothing would hurt it either. Finishing above .500 in conference is looking really bleak at the moment.

SEC

At least there's some separation. There's sort of a clear top of the conference and bottom ofd the conference. What isn't good is that some of the teams at the top (Kentucky, Miss St.) had poor non-conference runs and some of the teams at the bottom (Arkansas) had good non-conference runs. What to do?


In: None


Should be in: Tennessee, Florida


Tennessee: This is probably more a "standard procedure" move down than anything else, but you can't lose to Kentucky on your home floor and be expected to stay a lock. The Vols will be fine given the mediocrity of their conference, but they better thank their lucky stars they're not playing in a different power conference where they'd be tested every night. Important game at home vs. Memphis on Saturday can vault this team back into lock status.


Florida: I have no real reason to keep this team out, despite the loss to South Carolina, simply because there's nobody else to put ahead of them, meaning they'll get 12-13 conference wins at least and that will be plenty. They’ve beaten all the teams they were supposed to (except @ Florida St. and @ South Carolina), but no marquee wins to speak of. They’ll probably get in based on sheer number of wins.


Bubble teams: Kentucky, Arkansas, LSU, South Carolina, Mississippi St.



Kentucky: Right now Kentucky is the only undefeated team in the SEC, and it's getting to the point where I'll have no choice but to move them up a notch. The Wildcats have had their fair share of criticism over the course of this season but the next two games are winnable, and if they can take care of business at home vs. South Carolina and Mississippi State they'll be undefeated in SEC play when Florida comes to town on Feb. 10th. But still... they lost to VMI. That HAS to mean something.



Arkansas: Loss to Florida really puts Arkansas in a bind. 0-3 in the SEC, or consecutive (almost) Top 10 wins? Either way, they desperately need to beat Alabama and Auburn before the Jan 31st game vs LSU.


LSU: One thing I didn't realize: this team's RPI is awful. I know they haven't beaten anybody (although that may change after the Xavier game on Saturday) but seriously, an RPI of over 300? Anyway, if they can get a bunch of wins in conference and beat some of the few legit teams, I think they'll be fine, but who knows at this point.



South Carolina: Missed a really good opportunity at home vs. Tennessee but took home Florida as a consolation prize. A couple of must-win games for the Gamecocks before back-to-back trips to Kentucky and Florida. Win over Baylor still looking strong. Gaudy record masks bad loss to Charleston. They still need to perform well in conference but the bid is there for the taking.


Mississippi State: Got hammered by LSU, and without a legit win to speak of (other than @ Arkansas, which is fading fast) the Bulldogs are not in a position to be arguing about a bubble spot.


Pac-10


It's looking like a 3 team race at this point. Two teams were expected, but Cal has crashed the party and doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon (unless they keep losing to teams like Oregon State). Other than that... USC and Washington are making serious pushes to be considered. Their showdown tonight could be for an early bubble spot. Other than that, you have a mediocre team with an even more mediocre resume (Wash St.), a team fading fast (Arizona), and a team with a gaudy record but not a lot of wins to show for it (Stanford). The Pac-10 may only get 4 in this year.

In: UCLA, Arizona St.

Should be in: Cal

Cal: Hmm... loss to Oregon State not the worst thing in the world, but the biggest thing the Bears had going for them was conference record. Still safe for now, but for future games against the Oregon schools, it would be advisable to win. Non-conference schedule includes reasonable losses to Florida St. and Missouri and wins @ UNLV and @ Utah.

Bubble teams: Washington, Stanford, USC, Arizona

Washington: Don't look now, but Washington is tied for the Pac-10 lead and with the USC win, they appear to be peaking at the right time. Loss to Cal in OT only thing keeping the Huskies out of first in the Pac-10. This is making up for a poor non-conference schedule which included no signature wins and a loss to Portland, but if they play this well in conference, it won't matter.

USC: Loss to Washington moves the Trojans back down to .500. At least they got the win at Arizona St. last week. Their best non-conference wins are Georgia Tech and @ Oregon, which means they have some work to do. Handing Oregon St. their first conference win in over a year doesn’t help their case. If I had to guess, I'd say this team is probably in, but there's still plenty of season left to be played and there's good arguments for both sides.

Stanford: Every time I think this Cardinal team is going to fade into oblivion, they go out and beat Cal. One more game against Oregon State before the @ USC/@ UCLA team which could make or break this squad. Absolutely nothing in non-conference play to back them up, but hey, at least they didn't lose!

Arizona: When you're 2-5 in conference, and the only two wins you have are over the worst and 2nd-worst team in the conference... yea, you've got issues. They have some very good OOC wins (Gonzaga, Kansas) but they're having problems beating the middle of the road Pac-10 teams. How is that going to get it done?


Other conferences:


Not many changes for the better for the mid-majors. BYU's two losses drop them down to the bubble. UNLV and San Diego State are making charges, and the Mountain West may be warranting their own conference projection soon. Outside of the Mountain West, though, no other small conference will probably get more than two in.

In: Xavier, Butler, Gonzaga

Should be in: St. Mary’s, Memphis, UNLV, Dayton, Davidson

St. Mary's: Bad loss to UTEP can be overlooked due to sheer number of wins and number of good wins (Providence, @ Oregon, @ Kansas St., @ SIU). As long as they take care of business in the WCC they should be fine.

Memphis: They don’t have any real great wins (best is home v. Cincinnati) but they've got a great shot Saturday vs. Tennessee. All the losses are reasonable and they should win the C-USA which will be enough to get in.

Dayton: The Flyers are holding on in the A-10 conference schedule, and there's still no reason to suggest they're not second best in the A-10, which will be good enough to get in. Loss @ Creighton still not good though.

Bubble teams: UNLV, BYU, Rhode Island, Illinois State, Creighton, Utah, San Diego State, Utah State, Houston

UNLV: Bad start to the conference slate cleaned up by win @ BYU. Win @ Louisville still looks great as well. They're in a similar position to BYU but at least they have a significant non-conference win to speak of. They're looking okay for a bid at the moment.

BYU: Two straight losses put the Cougars in a bit of bubble jeopardy. They missed on their two non-conference opportunities (Wake Forest and Arizona State) so there's nothing backing up their resume should they fall short of the Mountain West auto bid. I would imagine the Mountain West regular season champ is good enough for an at-large (it has been in the past) but there's no reason to suggest that's a lock after the loss to UNLV at home.

Rhode Island: Poor A-10 start really puts the pressure on the Rams. Loss at St. Joe's is not good, as that's a comparable bubble team. It’s hard to believe only two teams could make it from the Atlantic 10, but it will probably happen. Losses to Duke and Villanova are nothing to be upset about, and losses @ Providence and and Oklahoma St. aren’t awful, but there just simply aren't enough good wins.

Illinois State: The Redbirds are playing okay in the MVC but certainly not good enough to get an auto-bid. They'll probably need the MVC auto-bid to get in now.

Creighton: Their at-large status was already iffy heading into conference play. They're back on track in the Missouri Valley but it's not enough. They’ll likely need the MVC auto-bid.

Utah: Loss to San Diego State isn't good, but the Utes are still 3-1 in conference. The Utes have an extremely awful set of losses, including a loss to a Division 2 team. However, recent wins over Gonzaga and LSU have put them in at-large consideration. At this point, the resume is not good enough. But there are good wins to come by in the Mountain West, and this team is very capable of making a run and taking the regular season title. HUGE game @ UNLV on Saturday.

San Diego State: Picked up the big win they needed over Utah and now have a very important game @ BYU next Saturday. If they can pull that off, I will be leading the charge to put this team in the tournament. Losses are all reasonable and relatively close, and a couple of wins over tournament teams is good enough for now.

Utah State: The WAC favorites fell to BYU on a neutral court but did beat fellow bubble member Utah. The OOC schedule probably isn’t strong enough for an at-large bid though.

Games to Watch - Week of Jan 19th

Another exciting weekend of college basketball saw two of the three remaining undefeateds fall, leaving only 1 team in the nation still yet to lose a game... Wake Forest. Somewhat of a surprise. We all knew they'd be good, but not this early. This team is supremely talented and athletic though. Here's what's on tap for the upcoming week:

Mon, Jan 19th

Syracuse @ Pitt - The Orange followed up a lackluster performance at G-Town with an impressive victory at home over ND. They will have to win some big road games if they want to win the Big East and this is one of them. This game could determine who wins the conference, especially since this is the only time they play each other.

Cincinnnati @ Providence - The Friars missed out on a big opportunity for a win at home against Marquette. Now they get a much easier opponent but one that won't impress anyone. Better take care of business at home.

Texas A&M @ Kansas - Good bubble game, although I don't think Kansas is neccessarily on the bubble right now. But the Aggies certainly are

Tues, Jan. 20th

Ohio St. @ Illinois - One of those games where, if you're the Illini, you MUST defend your home turf. Illinois is a good team and not in any danger of missing the tourney at the moment, but they can't afford to lose games like this at home.

Virginia @ Maryland - Must win for the Terps? After losing to Florida State in OT, I'd say yes.

Michigan @ Penn St. - The Nittany Lions get another shot at knocking off a good opponent at home. This is a game the Wolverines definitely can't afford to lose, as keeping pace with the middle of the Big Ten pack is a must.

Wed, Jan 21st

Villanova @ UConn - You want respect from me, Villanova? Here's your opportunity. Guys like Scotty Reynolds need to prove they can play well in big games and win. This is as good an opportunity as they come.

Florida St. @ Miami (Fl) - The Seminoles have gotten off to a good start in ACC play. Not saying they're going to win this game or anything, because the U seems to be back on track, but you never know...

Mississippi St. @ LSU - A lot was expected out of LSU this year... weak conference, weak division, many people expected a tournament berth at least. However, at this point the Tigers still have work to do, and they've got company at the top of the SEC West in the form of a well-coached, overachieving Bulldogs squad. This would be an important win for LSU.

Clemson @ UNC - Clemson stuck with Wake Forest on Saturday and put together a good late charge but it wasn't enough. Now they face an even more difficult task: go into Chapel Hill and take down the Tar Heels. Not a fun stretch of games for the Tigers.

Missouri @ Oklahoma St. - If Missouri wants to solidify their tournament status, they'll have to win games like this... on the road against good teams that they should beat.

Nebraska @ Oklahoma - The Cornhuskers' big chance to pick up a marquee win that could make a HUGE difference in March.

Arizona St. @ Arizona - These teams don't like each other, and with the emergence of Arizona State as a legit basketball program, it should be a very competitive game. Probably more important for the Wildcats, who really need to start racking up some wins in Pac-10 play.

UNLV@ BYU - Big time Mountain West game. Stay up late for this one.

Thurs, Jan. 22nd

West Virginia @ Georgetown - West Virginia escaped what would've been a very costly loss by finishing off South Florida at home on Saturday. Thursday they get a big game vs. the Hoyas, who have fallen back a bit after their hot start to the season and could always use a good Big East win at home to keep pace with the conference leaders.

Purdue @ Minnesota - So far this year the Boilers have looked awful on the road. If they want to keep pace with Michigan St. in the Big Ten, they need to start winning road games. Minnesota, meanwhile, needs a big win at home to erase the memory of losing to Northwestern on Sunday.

USC @ Washington - Pac-10 Thursday features a game between two Pac-10 bubble teams. Both have picked up some good wins in conference. The Huskies especially need to get this one, being at home and in the worse position bubble-wise of the two schools.

Fri, Jan 23rd

Brown @ Yale - Yay for Ivy League.

Sat, Jan 24th

Maryland @ Duke - Do the Terps have another big upset in them? If not, it's back to the NIT.

Memphis @ Tennessee - Remember how big this game was last year? It's still big... not #1 vs. #2 big, but still important for both teams. Tennessee needs a good win to recover from this rough patch they've hit as of late... and Memphis could always use a good non-conference win, considering they don't really have one yet.

Wisconsin @ Illinois - Another big, important Big Ten game

Baylor @ OU - Why this game is on ESPNU, I do not know. It could be one of the better games of the day. Then again, with nobody to match up with Blake Griffin, it could also easily be a blowout. The OU backcourt, which has passed pretty much every test they've had this year, gets possibly their biggest test of the year trying to shut down this Baylor backcourt.

UCLA @ Washington - Remember way back in November when Washington lost to Portland? You won't if they get this win.

UConn @ ND - This game's at ND, where they actually play like a legit top 15 team, so this should be a good game. Good matchup of Harangody vs. Thabeet as well

Xavier @ LSU - A random, but hopefully completely enjoyable non-conference game.

Texas A&M @ Texas - This completes a very difficult stretch of Big 12 games for the Aggies. If they can take at least this one or @ Kansas, they will be set up very nicely for the next few weeks, which contains @ Oklahoma and three very winnable games at home. At or above .500, with a few good Big 12 wins, should be enough for the Aggies to get in.

Sun, Jan 25th

Louisville @ Syracuse - Talk about a big week for the Orange. They get two of three biggest contenders for the Big East title (the other being UConn) in one week. Jim Boeheim would probably be happy with a split, and this is the easier of the two. Yea, I said it. A game vs. a team who just beat the top-ranked team in the nation and is on fire at the moment is the easier of the two games. Such is life in the Big East.

Michigan St. @ Ohio St. - Difficult road game for the Spartans. They'll do well to stay undefeated in the Big Ten after this one.

Pitt @ WVU - The Mountaineers gave UConn a good game in their house a few weeks ago, and I'd expect the same from them on Sunday against the Panthers.

Navy @ Army - How can you not highlight the greatest rivalry of them all?

...

oh wait, this is basketball? Never mind then.